Priority in new leader selection will be the capacity to energise public support and win the next election. The Tory party will support whoever can deliver - probably one who has limited or (preferably) no recent negative baggage.
Right now ministers are actively supporting Boris - if he survives this evening they are reliant upon his goodwill for their jobs. How they actually vote is another matter.
Voters have very short memories - Covid and Brexit will likely be mostly an irrelevancy in 2024. The key to the next election will be unemployment, inflation, cost of living issues.
Sir Keir provides little threat - he may be decent, intelligent, fair etc etc - but has the media presence and personality of a potato. There is no sense he is in control of events - events will emerge which he may or may not be able to exploit.
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