I read or heard somewhere earlier that it is practically a given that 'payroll' ministers will support Johnson. There are 180 of those, so 170 backbenchers. Therefore he will win. But if more than 100 vote against him, that will mean a clear majority of backbenchers want him gone and he's pretty well doomed.
Not I think that he will accept that. He will claim a win by one vote as a ringing endorsement and stay on.
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