The "parties" issue is an exercise in self-righteous indignation. I don't believe for one moment it was only he and his Tory friends who partied - just that no one has exposed any opposition abuse of guidance or rules (yet).
Opinion polls two years into a five year term are irrelevant. That Boris can morph from hero in 2019 to villain today is evidence that polls are based on the superficial and immediate, not deep rooted policy and moral judgements.
It is pure speculation what the situation will be in two/three years time - Covid, unemployment, economic growth, residual Brexit fallout, state of the NHS, etc etc.
Over the next two years (possibly sooner than later) the Tory party may decide to dump Boris if he no longer seems an electoral asset. Equally if Sir Kier proves incapable of sustained break through (he has failed thus far) his future will be threatened.
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