That the party in power lose a few by-elections is no surprise - although the size of the losses may be much larger than the norm.
The question the Tory party need to ask is whether Boris, previously an electoral asset, will still be a drag on support in the (expected) 2024 election.
The longer he is in post, the greater the blame he will inevitably have to take for any/all Covid and Brexit failings. If no longer PM I doubt Boris will be concerned (he is too egotistical) - the media will simply find someone else still in the leadership team to blame.
The Tories will need a replacement in position by middle to end of 2023 so that any new PM will have time to settle in. So Boris may last another year - although I somehow doubt it. His copy book is well and truly blotted!
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