Hi Bromptonaut
As RichardW said above, have the valve clearances been checked?
Whilst you would usually go back to the last thing done prior to the issue appearing (timing belt change), it could be that the relationship between cam and crank is ever so slightly different due to the new belt.
This might have been just enough to expose a valve that has gradually been closing up.
The symptoms are exactly yours as far as I can see. Slightly lumpy running the colder it gets on first start up, usually dropping one cylinder, unburnt fuel mist from exhaust, smoothing out once the cylinder head warms through a little and being fine for the rest of the day.
I've run a number of XUD engined cars and come across this a couple of times.
Hope you get it resolved.
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