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Continuing discussion.
Last edited by: VxFan on Tue 17 Jan 23 at 10:57
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He is trying to consolidate and call a halt with what he has.
The way to end this is to convince the Ukrainians to accept things are now as they are, maybe by pulling them into NATO. That assures Putin knows he lost big time
Last edited by: Zero on Wed 21 Sep 22 at 12:14
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By integrating newly acquired territory into Russia Putin can claim that any further attacks by Ukraine using NATO weaponry is an attack on Russia proper and a justification for use of nuclear weapons which I think is becoming increasingly likely.
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>> By integrating newly acquired territory into Russia Putin can claim that any further attacks by
>> Ukraine using NATO weaponry is an attack on Russia proper and a justification for use
>> of nuclear weapons which I think is becoming increasingly likely.
>>
I'm reading "War of Nerves" by Martin Sixsmith at the moment. It is about the Cold War and and a psychological analysis of the various leaders over the decades. In the light of the present situation it makes chilling reading, detailing how close we have come (Within minutes) of a full scale nuclear war on quite a few occasions over the years. We can only hope that behind the bluster there are frantic diplomatic discusions going on behind the scenes to allow a mutually agreeable solution, one that allows both sides to walk away without losing face.
Our luck though, cannot hold out forever and one day someone is going to take a step too far and that will be it. We can only hope it is not during our lifetimes.
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Or during our Children's lifetimes or their children or.............................
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Best option would be to move to Liverpool. I can't see it being on Mr Puteys list of places worth a strike.
Ted
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There's a few of them in sunny north devon just a few yards from my orfspring. Drug pushing scum and the old Bill do FA.
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This is a political statement more than anything, it changes little in Ukraine, he's telling everyone he's in this for the long term and hoping the west will crack first.
Russia can't train and equip the troops it has now, another 300k through the system is hardly going to help. The new recruits receive very little training, some as few as days.
Next spring will be when we'll see if this recruitment is successful or not.
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There are no frantic diplomatic discussions going on behind the scenes I’m afraid. It’s just Putin.
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>> There are no frantic diplomatic discussions going on behind the scenes I’m afraid. It’s just
>> Putin.
>>
We have no way of knowing that, such things are never learnt about till afterwards - if at all.
One thing that could make Putin check his stride is the Chinese concern about the situation. That is one enemy the Russians will not want to make.
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And who would these discussions be with? Putin currently has absolute power. Until he is overthrown he makes all the decisions. His lackeys do what he says and he’s not looking for a peace treaty with Ukraine..
I think a coup of some sort is inevitable within a year or so but it’s likely to come from the right not the left. Only the military have the capability of getting rid of him.
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Does right/left really work in Russia? I wouldn't have called Stalin a socialist. There's just more fascist and less fascist. Russia fighting Nazis in Ukraine is laughable.
He's going to hold rigged referendums in the areas under Russian control to prove that the populations in those areas want to be part of Russia. Then he will recognise them as such. Then he will construe attempts to retake them as attacks on Russia, which will justify a response with nuclear weapons, even to the extent of retaliatory attacks on NATO countries.
He says he is not bluffing. A fairly essential part of bluffing. He's happy to leave the response to the NATO alliance. Nobody knows what Russia really will do but appeasement would almost certainly be the worst response in the long run. Inscrutability might have a value. Walk softly and carry a big stick etc.
It's very difficult to know how much danger there really is. Best to assume a lot. I think China has an important role and it seems certain they are already working on something, focussed no doubt on opportunities for themselves.
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I used “left” to describe the element of the population opposed to the war. Mainly younger and professional classes with more exposure to Western media and views. Unfortunately these people have no real power and change is likely to come from the military who see the country and army humiliated by Putin
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I understand. I can't envisage a popular uprising either.
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There's no doubt been quite a few dictators who thought they were untouchable, until they were.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Thu 22 Sep 22 at 12:17
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Yes that one. It looked fine when i was typing it!
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>> And who would these discussions be with? Putin currently has absolute power. Until he is
>> overthrown he makes all the decisions. His lackeys do what he says and he’s not
>> looking for a peace treaty with Ukraine..
>>
>>
>>
There are always diplomatic channels open behind the scenes. Even North and South Korea has those despite the power of Kim. All countries recognise these are essential because there are issues that can only be discussed in private in order for compromises to be worked out without making it look like the rulers are backtracking on their public statements - which are for their own populations as much as for the enemy.
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Neither Putin nor Ukraine are looking for compromises.
Last edited by: CGNorwich on Thu 22 Sep 22 at 15:29
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Maybe, as they never are early in a war, but they will need to be made.
Compromise no 1, Ukraine will never get Crimea back, its gone and the cost is too high. Compromise no2 the breakaway area that went in 2014 is gone. Compromise no 3 Ukraine WILL be in the EU and or Nato. Compromise no 4 Ukraine will be equipped as a hostile front line border. Thats the price you pay for trying to invade a country Putin
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There will be no compromise or meaningful talks whilst Putin remains in power.
My betting is on a the Russian military ousting Putin withing the next year, probably sooner. Only if Putin is ousted will there be meaningful talks with Ukraine and the West. If Putin manages to remain in power the war is going to drag on for a very long time possibly years.
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I think I have recommended this before but the podcasts really are worth a listen.
www.noiser.com/realdictators
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Neither Putin nor Zelensky will open negotiations - it would be seen by the other as a tacit acceptance of impending defeat. Dialogue will need to be started through a third party.
Putin will need a settlement that allows him to save face - portray as either success, or at least achievement of claimed goals. Or the risk of nuclear escalation increases materially.
Zelensky may have to accept the permanent loss of Crimea and some of eastern Ukraine. They are (if the media is to be believed) completely wrecked. The carrot may be NATO and/or EU membership.
Hoping that Putin will be unseated is a complete unknown - we don't know who, when or what changes to foreign and military policy might follow. This is not a solution.
Finally support of Ukraine by the west cannot be withdrawn - it would reinforce the Putin view that resolve is lacking and encourage further "special military operations".
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>>Hoping that Putin will be unseated is a complete unknown - we don't know who, when or what >>changes to foreign and military policy might follow. This is not a solution.
With the number of scientists, officials and (former) friends, falling down stairs or out of windows, one wonders if attempted putsches have been put down?
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>>
>>
>> With the number of scientists, officials and (former) friends, falling down stairs or out of
>> windows, one wonders if attempted putsches have been put down?
>>
Once you start scaring your own side, your days are numbered.
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>>Neither Putin nor Zelensky will open negotiations - it would be seen by the other as a tacit acceptance of impending defeat. Dialogue will need to be started through a third party.
Have you ever been involved in a mediation? I was on one side of a £10m. claim that went that way. Fascinating. The job of the mediator is to find a position that both sides think makes them a winner. Not quite as serious as a war of course.
I don't suppose Sinn Fein or the Unionists kicked off the NI agreement process.
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The unseating of Putin is the only thing that will lead to the end of the war. It is inevitable if Russia continues to fail in its war aims. There will be no mediated solution whilst Putin is in power.
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>> The unseating of Putin is the only thing that will lead to the end of
>> the war. It is inevitable if Russia continues to fail in its war aims. There
>> will be no mediated solution whilst Putin is in power.
That might be true but there had better be one at some point. The alternative doesn't bear thinking about. The parties (and NATO is one of them) are currently on a path that leads to all out war, albeit that it is hopefully some time off. Putin is escalating with his "mobilisation" and is paving the way for the use of nastier weapons with his words about attacks on Russian territory and the rigged votes over the next few days.
I'm pretty sure the other big dogs in the army and the Kremlin can see this. No doubt some of them think it's a good idea. I hope not many.
Last edited by: Manatee on Thu 22 Sep 22 at 20:38
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Those with levers of power under putin won't turn on him until they have their snouts pulled away from the trough. When there's a clear link to them losing wealth because of putins actions then they'll act, i don't think it'll be the army, although they will be the instrument used.
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Shocking. Hard to see how it will end well for unwilling, ill-equipped, possibly badly led new recruits facing battle hardened and highly motivated Ukrainians
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Much like the first wave, pretty fatally. Chewed up by Ukrainian artillery. Russian attitudes to their own rural poor haven't changed much in a long time.
Some given so little training they don't know how to change a belt fed magazine. Some given just 2 days training.
www.goodreads.com/book/show/2186055.One_Soldier_s_War_In_Chechnya this lays out the attitude and state of the Russian army, reading on twitter now it's much the same as then.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Thu 22 Sep 22 at 21:09
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>> Russia could be losing it's friends -
>>
But he still has former Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63005402
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>>
>> >>
>> But he still has former Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi
>> www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63005402
>>
>>
Berlusconi then backtracked, saying his statement had been "Oversimplified".
In other words, he realised he had made a right tit of himself. And not for the first time.
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mobile.twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1573250936566325248
Seems the mobilisation is quite haphazard.
The tweet is from a bbc reporter.
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It's quite clear that Russian logistics are poor, and processes corrupt.
With money and/or influence most who want to can avoid the mobilisation probably can.
Poor logistics means that even if they get 300,000, they may be poorly trained and ill equipped.
The full time professional "elite" of the Russian military tend to do the jobs requiring a little intelligence. Many of the frontline are often far from bright, some ex-convicts, those with limited ability to get another job. Money + food + (I assume) vodka are the main motivators.
They are likely to end up (at best) with 300,000 probably poorly trained soldiers. Whether they can coordinate uniforms, transport, weapons, ammunition, food etc to actually be effective on the front line is debatable.
It may simply be a case of Putin trying to ratchet up the pressure for a settlement to save face.
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300,000 poorly trained and unmotivated conscripts are probably more of a hindrance than a help. I can see mass surrenders and desertions the first chance many of them get.
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And winter is just around the corner. Requires a whole different breed of soldier to cope with arduous conditions.
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The United States has warned Russia of catastrophic consequences if they use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
In an interview with NBC, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said:
"If Russia crosses this line, the consequences for it will be catastrophic. The US will respond decisively. Through private channels, we have explained in more detail what exactly this will mean."
He also said that in the next few days Washington would issue statements about imposing additional sanctions in response to the fake referendums.
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>> The United States has warned Russia of catastrophic consequences if they use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
>>
>>
>>
Those who advocate the use of nuclear weapons are on safe ground, because afterwards there will be no one left to tell them they were wrong.
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>> The United States has warned Russia of catastrophic consequences if they use nuclear weapons in
>> Ukraine.
>>
Putin doesn’t care. He’s not taken any notice of Western threats actions and sanctions to date.
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Unfortunately, the failure of the conventional Russian forces have probably made the use of nuclear weapons more likely, not less likely.
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Unless removed by his Kremlin "friends" - an outcome entirely beyond the control of the West, Putin needs a way out to save face.
Ratcheting up the rhetoric on both sides makes it easier to initiate (via a 3rd party) settlement of some sort. The West - more sanctions, confiscation of Russian assets, undefined threats of retaliation. Russia - 300k more troops, referenda.
The nuclear threat is real, but as an optimist I would hope for a better solution - possibilities:
- agree Crimea borders - still unrecognised by UN.
- possible sacrifice of some territory in Donetsk and Luhansk
- Ukraine to join Nato
- Ukraine to join EU
- reparations for damage to Ukraine infrastructure
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>> - agree Crimea borders - still unrecognised by UN.
>> - possible sacrifice of some territory in Donetsk and Luhansk
>> - Ukraine to join Nato
>> - Ukraine to join EU
>> - reparations for damage to Ukraine infrastructure
Since the threat of Ukraine joining NATO was the trigger for Putin's invasion that's clearly a non starter. EU membership however is a possibility.
Would the Ukriane government accept the loss of territory?
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>
>> Would the Ukriane government accept the loss of territory?
>>
Not publicly right now. Things may change, we'll know more over the autumn as the first of the conscripts arrive. From OSI it seems there's very little, if any training, given right now. Plans seem to be to increase the number to 1 million. At that point, if not before, we'll see large scale public disorder.
Recruiting offices are being burnt down and those involved in conscription shot. A fair few of those mobilised seem to be alcoholics.
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>Putin doesn’t care...
Do you really think that any message like that is intended solely for Putin's ears?
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No but he is the man with the power at the moment. Only when he gone will things change.
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Nevertheless it's important that maximum strength and willingness to use it are clearly demonstrated by NATO/USA.
Economic damage to Europe might bring pressure fro some to abandon Ukraine and hope to do deals again with Russia on energy. There should be no question of that, or the costs and threat of further encroachment will be greater in future.
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Russia are full of crap re nuclear weapons.
It (the phoney threat) is being used by both sides (not including Ukraine) to justify a negotiated settlement that gives Russia a bit of Ukraine and new borders.
So the threat is only relevant as the get-out clause to stop the war dragging on ad infinitum.
Last edited by: Lygonos on Mon 26 Sep 22 at 14:31
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Whatever settlement/compromise is agreed with Ukraine being the losers. Russia has to be left in the position of 'You aren't going to pull that stunt again'.
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www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63090644
What with Macrons 'off ramp' diplomatic failure, not a great time for the french.
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>> www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63090644
>>
>> What with Macrons 'off ramp' diplomatic failure, not a great time for the french.
TBF, France has the same issues the whole of Western Europe has. That is, how much of your -low because of the previous period of stability - weaponry do you give away to be destroyed on the battlefield far out east, which you might need nearer to home if the bellicose Putin decides to invade a Nato country and threatens your near border.
Maybe now that its realised that Putins ground forces are pretty much useless and a push west is not possible, it may be seen as a good idea to grind them down to inconsequential out on the Far Eastern border of a non Nato country.
Apart from nuclear, (and possibly naval sub warfare) the Ruskies are no threat to the west and Nato.
Which is why of course he has had to resort to the nuclear threat.
Last edited by: Zero on Mon 3 Oct 22 at 15:46
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>> www.statista.com/chart/27331/countries-committing-the-most-of-their-gdp-to-ukraine-aid/
Showing it as a proportion of their own GDP is interesting as it shows Estonia, with perhaps the most skin in the game, making a large contribution % wise.
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And those at the bottom as well, looks like Germany doesn't like opening its wallet.
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The traffic lights have been using any excuse they can to avoid supplying Ukraine with hardware that might upset Putin. I'm disgusted with them, which is a pity because I'm immensely fond of Germany.
Lambrecht was there over the weekend promising that they would deliver an IRIS air defense system in 'the coming days' but the last aid they sent was weeks ago and was a refrigeration system....for a morgue.
At the moment they're about to approve a 200Bn€ package to cap energy prices with critics complaining that, as it stands, it supports industry more than domestic consumers.
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>> The traffic lights have been using any excuse they can to avoid supplying Ukraine with
>> hardware that might upset Putin.
What's their excuse this time?
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The Germans tend to have very different attitude to conflict, many there would see it as counter productive. I found this article which I think does a good job in explaining wide held views in their country and is very much in line with how a Geman friend explained popular opinion there.
warontherocks.com/2022/02/why-germany-behaves-the-way-it-does/
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>What's their excuse this time?
We'll have to wait and see what "in the coming days" means.
DIEHL submitted their proposal and Scholz told The Bundestag in May that they were being sent but I've honestly lost track of all the excuses used so far for everything they've promised but not delivered.
"Quicker to let someone else supply old Soviet kit. We can't send stuff in case Germany/NATO is attacked. They need months of training. Not worth sending X,Y or Z because we can't supply enough ammunition. We're waiting for someone else to do it first. Its a software problem."
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Something I hadn't thought of.
A pundit in Ukraine is saying that Putin's annexation has caused a bit of a dilemma for Belarus.
If Lukashenko recognises the annexed territories as being Russian he is obliged by a bi-lateral agreement to join the war against Ukraine. If he doesn't recognise them he upsets the regime keeping him in power and who already have a military presence in the country.
I'm not sure that his latest statement saying that Belarus is taking part by watching Russia's back will be enough for Putin.
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>> this is a nice well balanced summary
>>
>> www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/10/6/putins-five-arrogant-mistakes
Aljazeera is often good for an alternative perspective well expressed.
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>>Aljazeera is often good for an alternative perspective well expressed
Howl's about this one then: www.youtube.com/watch?v=5DTMF0MSXng
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'So why then do world powers continue to make the same costly mistakes, expecting different results? Does arrogance breed madness too?'
All countries are, richer ones get more opportunity to show it that's all.
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twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1578595663126069248
Looks like some sort of explosion on the Kerch bridge.
twitter.com/RALee85/status/1578637477807783936
Last edited by: sooty123 on Sat 8 Oct 22 at 08:24
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Happy Birthday Putin
www.citizen.co.za/news/watch-vladimir-putins-flash-mob-birthday-surprise/
After his pyramids of melons and a new tractor.......
After the recent article " 10 reasons not to attack the Kursk bridge.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-63183783
Reports indicate that both of the parallel bridges were damaged.
That will get the attention of the Crimean Russians.
Oh and thanks from the Ukrainians for the " donations" of tanks by fleeing Russian troops.
They have all be put to good use.
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Crimean bridge: Who - or what - caused the explosion?
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63192757
Was it coincidence or great planning that the explosion was exactly opposite the few fuel containers on the freight train ? The rest of the freight seemed to be open units for minerals.
The smoke could not be hidden and the queue of vehicles for exit is also impressive.
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m.dw.com/en/germany-to-quickly-send-air-defense-systems-to-ukraine/a-63397544
Looks like an early delivery. I think they'll need it after todays attacks. Seems like things can be sped up when required.
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I thought Israel had exceptionally good anti missile defences against incoming from Gaza.
Maybe the Russian incoming are shorter distance, or the Ukraine cannot obtain ( or the Israelis don’t want their defence hardware to fall into Russian hands) such defences.
Indiscriminate incoming must have been expected after the attack on the bridge...which didn’t wipe it out completely.
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The Israelis do have equipment that would be very useful but they aren't willing to sell it. They wish to be fairly neutral in the conflict.
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They wish to be fairly neutral in the conflict.
>>
Well that’s them off my Christmas card list. t***s.
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>> The Israelis do have equipment that would be very useful but they aren't willing to
>> sell it. They wish to be fairly neutral in the conflict.
Its not quite as foolproof as they would make you believe. Certainly not brilliant at the short range stuff from Gaza.
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I thought the Israelis got their (iron dome) air defence from America, or have they modified it for their own purposes?
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Personnel from IDF were (unofficially) in Ukraine just after Russia started using Iranian drones - to see what they could learn from downed examples.
As far as Lambrecht saying that they'll be supplying IRIS-T "in the coming days" - in June Scholz said it was "within weeks", then in July Lambrecht slapped down the Foreign Minister and said they couldn't possibly supply anything before year end if at all.
Last week she was in the Baltic states having the cheek to tell them that "Nato must do more to protect itself against Russia".
The woman is full of BS and I'll believe it when I see it.
At least Biden has stepped up and said that they'll now be supplying Ukraine with advanced air defense kit.
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>> Personnel from IDF were (unofficially) in Ukraine just after Russia started using Iranian drones -
>> to see what they could learn from downed examples.
>>
It'll be the other way around, Israelis teaching the Ukrainians.
>> The woman is full of BS and I'll believe it when I see it.
>>
You may well be right, we'll have to see what's in the big book of excuses this week.
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>It'll be the other way around, Israelis teaching the Ukrainians.
Ah, you're not fooled either ;-) But that was the best reason they could come up with on the spur of the moment.
It was actually useful for both parties.
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>> I thought the Israelis got their (iron dome) air defence from America, or have they
>> modified it for their own purposes?
>>
Made in Israel, paid for by the Americans.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_Dome
It costs between $70,000 and $100,000 per interception!!!
Last edited by: zippy on Wed 12 Oct 22 at 13:10
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>> Made in Israel, paid for by the Americans.
Essentially to stop the Israelis throwing nuclear bombs around.
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Israel doesn't need to throw nukes around. Their current opposition are disorganised, poorly equipped, and poorly led. They would make Putin's lads look vaguely competent.
The risk is that at some point in the future they could represent a real threat so complacency would not be the right strategy.
Whether they or the US developed the dome is debatable - but they probably rank in the top 5 in terms of military technological capability along with US, UK, China.
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>> Israel doesn't need to throw nukes around.
They are very tempted, and have threatened to nuke Iran.
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If any of you lot drive a Kia while drinking Bud Light (ABInBev) and putting on your Glimmerstick eyeliner (Avon) please stop now.
leave-russia.org/
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twitter.com/RikeFranke/status/1579764472864202752
Parts of a speech by Borel. His part about learning more from the newspapers than the EU ambassadors was funny.
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>> Iranians are sending increasing numbers of drones and short range missiles to Russia.
Is this, and possible countermeasures, why Ben Wallace cleared his diary and flew to Washington today?
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>> >> Iranians are sending increasing numbers of drones and short range missiles to Russia.
>>
>> Is this, and possible countermeasures, why Ben Wallace cleared his diary and flew to Washington
>> today?
We are in "Window" territory. Window was a device to jam radar, the Germans knew of it, the Allies knew of it, but both were terrified to use it less they loose the use of radar by using and hence revealing it.
Drones? you just jam them with ECM.
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s this, and possible countermeasures, why Ben Wallace cleared his diary and flew to Washington
>> today?
>>
Unlikely that specifically, deliveries have been going on for a little while. I wasn't aware he'd gone last minute, certainly the Americans didn't get excited about it.
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>> Unlikely that specifically, deliveries have been going on for a little while. I wasn't aware
>> he'd gone last minute, certainly the Americans didn't get excited about it.
He was, per press reports, due to be in front of the defence select committee today and cancelled pleading an urgent need for F2F discussions in Washington.
I guess you could read that as reflecting a need to talk to the Pentagon etc about worrying developments in Ukraine...
Or
A need to get away from being questioned about worrying developments in Westminster...
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>> I guess you could read that as reflecting a need to talk to the Pentagon
>> etc about worrying developments in Ukraine...
>>
>> Or
>>
>> A need to get away from being questioned about worrying developments in Westminster...
I doubt there is anything going on in Ukraine that requires any input, advice or agreement from us
However intelligence may be discussed around security of supply from the north sea.
but looking important in a far away place while the poo fan is in overdrive at home, is not exactly a disadvantage now is it.
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> He was, per press reports, due to be in front of the defence select committee
>> today and cancelled pleading an urgent need for F2F discussions in Washington.
>>
>>
Of course the press will be all over excited, but then they're like kids that have had too many sweets right now. There are developments in ukr and things we are heavily involved with, however i don't believe it's as pressing as is being presented. We shall see though.
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They may need to send underwear as well.
A Ukrainian squaddie commenting on the situation in Donbas said that the mobs (mobilised) are surrendering in large numbers. One group who surrendered had nothing white to wave so one of them had stripped off and waved his shreddies.
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Surprised they were still white...
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Assuming Ukraine continue to advance, and the Russians retreat, run or surrender where does the conflict go.
Putin seems unready to accept defeat and will use drones and missile systems. Ukraine will increasingly want to retaliate by initially going for military targets in Russia and Crimea.
There is no sign of de-escalation or negotiations - tensions are still increasing.
The West will need to decide whether/how to support Ukraine's escalation with more and possibly different weapons systems.
The West will now have properly evaluated the impacts of gas shortages over the winter. This may be the reason for the increasing publicity being given in the UK to possible blackouts.
Plenty to talk about in Washington!!
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Silly question re the Iranian Drones....
The top speed of these things is supposed to be under 200mph.
For want of a better description, I would think the WW2 type anti-aircraft gun batteries would be effective against them.
You just need a lot of gun batteries and search lights, which is what we had in WW2, but it's cheap and reliable against slow moving targets.
Last edited by: zippy on Wed 19 Oct 22 at 01:40
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> You just need a lot of gun batteries and search lights,
And there lies the problem.
The ukr seem to be doing ok so far, they claim, to be destroying around 75% of those launched.
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>>You just need a lot of gun batteries and search lights, which is what we had in WW2, but it's >>cheap and reliable against slow moving targets.
I read somewhere that during WW2 more damage was done by falling shrapnel from AA guns than German bombs.
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>> I read somewhere that during WW2 more damage was done by falling shrapnel from AA
>> guns than German bombs.
>>
If you take a look at pictures of area like the London Docks, Coventry or Liverpool let after bombing it is apparent how ridiculous that claim is
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A lot of minor damage was done by shrapnel, like broken roof tiles, windows, etc, and survivable minor injuries, the big damage was done by direct ordnance hits and fire sticks.
My grandfather had a scar in his chin caused by shrapnel when he was firewatching
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Yes even now many people are killed by the return to earth of bullets fired into the air , a practice so popular in the Middle East, but more damage than German bombing? I don’t think so.
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"Tens of thousands of civilians and Russian-appointed officials are being moved out of Ukraine's southern Kherson region ahead of a Ukrainian offensive, says the Russia-installed local leader."
Vladimir Saldo said 50-60,000 civilians would leave four towns on the west bank of the Dnieper river in an "organised, gradual displacement".
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63311744
Is this why there has been a news black out ?
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Or is this a pre cursor to laying the area waste and uninhabitable with a nuclear device?
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>Or is this a pre cursor to laying the area waste and uninhabitable with a nuclear device?
The Ukrainian military have suspicions that the Ruskies may be tempted to hit the dam at the hydroelectric plant upstream of Kherson.
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The current accuracy of hitting power stations seems to indicate that most of the previous hits on non military targets were also intended.
Ukraine will be even more inspired to keep pushing the Russians back.
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I was a bit surprised to see the number and range of military aircraft over the North Sea recently. At one point there were UK, US, German, Swedish and Italian planes up there. I thought it was probably the NATO 'exercises' that had been announced. It turns out that there may be an additional reason.
The Norwegian Defense Minister announced today that they have increased maritime surveilance and cancelled some training and exercises due to an "abnormally high" level of drone activity near their North Sea installations since the Nord Stream explosions. They have also arrested Russian 'tourists' who were taking photos of resticted areas and are investgating the purchase by the Russian Orthodox Church of property overlooking a Naval Base.
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More likely more people he can send to russia and 'russianise'.
I doubt it's the prep for a nuclear bomb, the americans have made it clear publically and privately what'll happen if they do.
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>>
>>
>> I doubt it's the prep for a nuclear bomb, the americans have made it clear
>> publically and privately what'll happen if they do.
>>
And the Chinese would not be too happy either. That's the one country the Russians cannot afford to upset.
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Putin is fighting for his continued existence as leader, and possibly his life.
He has been reduced to launching missiles from a distance, looking to N Korea and Iran for support, recruiting convicts to keep the war going, putting 300,000 poorly trained and equipped reservists into the front line.
His only strategy is to play for time and hope that something emerges which allows him to survive - negotiations for ceasefire he can claim as a victory, lack of gas supplies making Europe cave in over the winter, US mid-term elections changing US willingness to support Ukraine.
His only possible tactic in the short term is disruption - claim the UK engaged in plan to sink the Black Sea fleet, attack in the Donbas with little military significance, blame someone (anyone else) for the pipe line explosions, threaten the nuclear plant, defend or retreat from Kherson, stop/start grain shipments etc.
As some of this is almost certainly fatuous, but we can't be certain which bits, it may be best to ignore the rhetoric and judge only that which can be supported with independant evidence.
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>> Putin endorses evacuation of parts of Ukraine's Kherson region
>>
>> www.reuters.com/world/europe/grain-ships-sail-ukraine-ports-russian-missiles-knock-out-power-across-country-2022-10-31/
>>
>> Ready to drop an atom bomb?
No its widely believed by the canny Ukrainians to be an attempt to lure them into a trap.
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Sounds like a Katyusha a.k.a. Stalin's Organ.
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Bonfire night in Bradford.
Next.
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mobile.twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1591059498827124739
Russians withdraw from kherson. Its the only major city they captured during this years offensive.
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Trouble is they are now lobbing bombs and kamikaze drones at power infrastructure even in areas they have never occupied. That is just spite and will cause severe problems if Ukraine can't keep electricity supplies going over the winter.
In the end Europe and the US could have a choice between engaging with Russia directly or abandoning Ukraine if Russia continues with this approach.
Apparently the Ukrainians are shooting down a lot of these drones, presumably using some fairly smart air defence stuff supplied by NATO countries.
Last edited by: Manatee on Fri 11 Nov 22 at 17:35
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I agree winter will be very unpleasant with seriously damaged power infrastructures. Analysis of other conflicts shows that attacking civilians actually increases their resolve. 80 years during the blitz, rationing, damage, loss of life etc reinforced determination to resist Nazi domination.
I think the West will continue to support the Ukraine military who seem to be doing a fantastic job, albeit supported by Western military technology. I would not expect direct feet on the ground from the West which may be unnecessary provocation.
I am also unsure how secure Putin's position now is. Russia is unquestionably in retreat - poorly trained reservists going into the frontline, poorly equipped, with second rate logistic support etc.
It may simply be a matter of time before even the most loyal of his supporters realise his removal and replacement is their best route to an agreed settlement.
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>> Trouble is they are now lobbing bombs and kamikaze drones at power infrastructure even in
>> areas they have never occupied. That is just spite and will cause severe problems if
>> Ukraine can't keep electricity supplies going over the winter.
foreignpolicy.com/2022/11/11/us-struggles-to-help-ukraine-keep-the-lights-on-energy-russia-war/
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From Ukranian news:
Oleksandr Hrushko, the deputy head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, said that Russia "does not accept the preconditions for starting negotiations with Ukraine ."
It concerns the demand to withdraw Russian troops from the occupied territories, rosZMI notes.
"No. Such conditions are unacceptable. Our president has repeatedly said that we are ready for negotiations, but these negotiations must naturally take into account the situation on the ground," Hrushko said.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine replied that "Russia is not in a position to dictate its terms."
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Predictable posturing.
The same question may elicit a different answer in a few months time, and/or negotiations possibly moderated by a neutral get underway.
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.. I'd just picked up on that. If it's confirmed it'll tighten a few sphincters around the world.
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A 'special operation' accident.
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Perhaps his moonshine still has gone bang.
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...I had a friend of polish extraction who brought some of his grandparents' "rye spirit" back from a visit. The words "fire water" were coined for just such a distillation.
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>> ...I had a friend of polish extraction who brought some of his grandparents' "rye spirit"
>> back from a visit. The words "fire water" were coined for just such a distillation.
There's a large Polish contingent locally since WW2 and a couple of Polish clubs. It used to be a regular occurance that a couple of them would go blind and an occasional fatality.
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The polish gov are meeting now. Some suggestions it was a ukr AD missile gone off target.
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>> The polish gov are meeting now. Some suggestions it was a ukr AD missile gone
>> off target.
At this point no-one knows if it was
A: Russian but off target
B: Russian knocked off target by the Ukranians
C: Ukrainian off target
D: Ukrainian diverted by striking something Russian.
The only thing you know is that the Russians did not target some horse and cart in the polish countryside.
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'The only thing you know'
And that the farmer would have been called Adam.
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Doesn't that just formalise what's already been happening?
I.e. provide training, money, weaponry and equipment with transportation etc.
No feet on the street - which would be a real escalation if it happened!!
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No most training taking place are through agreements outside of the EU.
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twitter.com/LucasFoxNews/status/1599131898760298496
About US stocks but relevant to most countries in the west.
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Don't worry. Germany still has most of what they had before the invasion.
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.. they'll be invading Poland next, then... ;-)
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>> .. they'll be invading Poland next, then... ;-)
>>
Tsk, they'll do anything to avoid giving the weapons to anyone that should need them! :-)
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...nah, it'd be a diversion from being knocked out of the World Cup...
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Ukraine have gone high-tech in the fighting in Donetsk Oblast.
They have published a video telling Russians that they can now surrender to a drone. They can either contact the Ukranian Forces Telegram channel and they will be told where to meet the drone or, if they see a quad drone, they can wave to it and it will lead them at walking pace to an assembly point where they will be able to surrender.
If the drone is low on battery it may have to return quickly to base, in which case they should stay where they are and wait for the next one.
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I think they had a surrender via QR code up and running earlier in the war.
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Have Russians never been on the "This is not a door its a window" course?
You have to admire the Russian FSB, they find a good idea they stick with it.
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...brings an entire new meaning to the words "falling out with Putin"....
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A Lieutenant General at the Russian Ministry of Emergencies has survived but is now in hospital.
A large icicle fell on his head.
State prosecutors are now looking for those responsible for cleaning the roof.
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Cos they don't like failures?
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Bloomberg reporting that the Israeli ex Defence Minister has said that Israel has "..improved readiness.." to hit Iran.
Well, I'm shocked.
Why would they want to do that when Russia has already denied providing Iran with more advanced military technology in exchange for the drones and missiles they haven't supplied?
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Russia are paying for the drones by giving them modern fast jets, something iran have been after for a long time.
How much this tips the scale to Israel supporting Ukraine, i don't know. I suspect we're not quite there yet, in terms of openly suppling equipment. I believe the Ukrainians want iron dome from them.
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mobile.twitter.com/shashj/status/1610702777205899284
Looks like france are sending more substantial equipment. The Americans look to be sending alot more as well, an announcement this week.
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>>The Americans look to be sending a lot more as well, an announcement this week.
My American friend tells me that there is a lot more "heavy" transport movements at all hours out of Bangor, Maine airport . She lives just a few miles from the airport and notes that they all climb out at a shallow angle and it is not to avoid disturbing the moose.
There are no scheduled domestic flights so it is possible that the cargo is off to Europe.
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news.yahoo.com/russia-plans-mobilize-500-000-170305298.html
More troops possibly called up. That's alot of manpower if it happens to be true, i wonder if putin is worried about all additional equipment being sent to Ukraine. No doubt the Ukrainians will be planning several new offensives.
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>> news.yahoo.com/russia-plans-mobilize-500-000-170305298.html
>>
>> More troops possibly called up. That's alot of manpower if it happens to be true,
It is, Based on the last call up, a number that the Russians cant support logistically. To try and do so will screw up up the entire Russian army.
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Ukraine - Volume 6 - sooty123
