October 19th 2023 has been announced as the proposed date for a Scottish independence referendum. It will need Supreme Court approval if it is to be legally binding.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-61968607
Around 50% of Scots think that breaking away from the Uk would be a good idea. Why?
As an Englishman, I fail to see why the UK government is so desperate to keep them on board. If the want to go, let them go. Why not?
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Wasn't it billed as a once in a generation last time round? I believe the Scots have shorter lifespans but not THAT short shorely? :-)
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I think it's the same as Brexit. If leave lost - one of the key campaigners said at the time it wouldn't be a done deal and they would demand a new referendum if it the results were close.
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>> I think it's the same as Brexit.
It would appear so, with each group switching sides.
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Calculating their share of the national debt to take with them is going to be interesting.
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As Elgin is in Scotland we would presumably get the Marbles?
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As a Scot living in England I won’t get a vote if the rules are the same as last time. This despite my legal nationality changing in the event it results in independence. This is hardly democratic.
It’s assumed that I would still be allowed to remain in England but that’s not guaranteed. Also will my state pension continue to be paid in the country where I have paid my taxes for fifty years? Again you would assume they will make a transition. However nothing is guaranteed.
For the wider U.K. population I think there are lots of reasons for concern. It would be expensive for both countries for a start. Another potential big issue is a mainland border between two currently joined countries. The madder the world becomes then the more of a headache that could be. For example a left wing Scotland might forge alliances that are not attractive to the rest of the island. Another unintended consequence would be to give the Conservatives a permanent majority in the remainder of the U.K. Or whatever it would be called.
I don’t doubt that my fellow Scots could make some sort of a go of it but the splitting of the country would be sub-optimal. It’s hard to see how Scotland would not be a poorer country by losing so many U.K. government jobs, economies of scale and the Barnett formula.
However it’s all too easy to underestimate the emotional pull for a lot of Scots to be independent. It is already a country with a distinct history and traditions. Dismissing it as a glorified county that should be grateful for English largesse plays into SNP hands.
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>..Also will my state pension continue to be paid in the country where I have paid my taxes for fifty years?..
Yes, but subject to exchange rate and transfer fees from whatever currency they invent ;-)
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When the Scottish currency was abolished in 1707 there were twelve Scottish pounds to the pound Sterling.
I guess we would continue where we left off.
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Arguments deployed by Nicola and Boris may evolve into a repeat of Brexit with roles reversed:
- Sturgeon - sunlit uplands characterised by a casting off the yoke of rule by Westminster (Brussels), "take back control", and as negotiations inevitably stall "get it done".
- Boris may go into Remainer mode - difficult, time consuming, damaging to both countries, project fear.
The vote will likely be close, negotiations will drag on for years over allocation of national debt, border controls, nuclear base, taxation, single market etc etc etc.
Assuming Scottish independence will be as easy (??) as Brexit is wishful thinking - they not only have to exit from one deal, they have to coordinate and agree terms to join another.
Ultimately Sturgeon may adopt the Boris end game - we are going anyway, sign up to whatever deal can be put on the table by a "drop dead" date, and sort out the deficiencies post exit.
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>>Around 50% of Scots think that breaking away from the UK would be a good idea.
The Scots haven't sought my advice and there's no reason why they should listen to me but another referendum now would be a huge mistake.
That's the first problem. They already know the first result, which is that another referendum will be very divisive. What Sturgeon proposes can only solidify the division that the SNP has already created.
Sturgeon is very plausible. She appears sane, rational, and debates well. However, what she is arguing for has every chance of making things very much worse than she supposedly thinks they already are.
Far from being rational (or right) she's driven by her own selfish ambition. Perhaps she's sincere and imagines herself as Robert the Bruce but she will probably ruin her country if she succeeds.
Knowing that the country is split down the middle over independence she wants to set off the explosion of lies and hate that will surround another referendum, instead of getting behind devolved self-government and trying to make people's lives better every day, which is actually the responsibility that she and her party have been elected for.
I hope the Scots think about what the Brexit referendum has done.
Brexit is probably the single worst thing that has happened to the UK since WW2. First the divisiveness of the referendum, which persists. Then the utter, possibly endless, manure exhibition that has followed. It's probably beyond argument now that Brexit has already cost us more than all the money that Britain ever paid to the EU. The implementation of the result has been hijacked by vested interests and what has resulted so far does not resemble what Leave was selling.
There's every chance that Scottish independence would be the same, or worse. There are no answers yet to the big questions around finance, currency, how or if Scotland can rejoin the EU, defence, and doubtless much more I don't know about or can't bring to mind. But if the vote goes to independence, there will be the same blind and incompetent imperative to "get it done" that has given us the Brexit shambles.
I don't mean to say that no country or part of one should ever aspire to independence. If an overwhelming majority want it then they should not be forced to remain under imposed rule. But where there is a balance as there is in Scotland, it cannot be a solution.
It's not as if it can be done and undone every few years. If they get a 52/48 result and 4%pts of the majority switch when they don't like what follows, a majority will have to live with consequences they don't want - just as has happened with Brexit. Nearly 50% now think it was wrong to leave the EU, and fewer than 40% think it was right. So it was clearly a mistake to act on a 51.8/48.2 result.
Last edited by: Manatee on Wed 29 Jun 22 at 10:05
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You could have posted this 6 years ago - substitute Boris for Nicola. I wholly agree.
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Nicola has not said what currency Scotland can use.
No currency of your own you cannot join the EU and establishing a currency + the reserves needed to back a currency - very difficult to do when you are running a £15BN deficit currently
25% deficit in income compared to expenditure - say £15Bn hole (NHS Scotland costs £12Bn per year) so where would she find a "money tree" to supply the shortfall.
EU membership allows only a 3% deficit.
Nato membership is conditional on having an army, navy & airforce + nuclear agreement
Huge Civil Service jobs in Scotland that service the whole of the UK (they would close)
Closure of military suppliers BAe Naval Yard, various electronics suppliers to MoD
EU membership = Border at Carlisle & Berwick - Scotland sells something like 75% of "exports" go to rUK.
EU is a BIGGER MARKET but EU SMALLER customer 20 - 25% of E&W. Some "EU shipments" from Scotland are not for EU27 but for onward shipment to USA/South America etc etc
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Great pair of posts from Manatee and FB, such a shame they are only appearing in our little backwater and won't get a wider audience.
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If folk have learned anything from Brexit - positivity wins votes (however illusory the claims), project fear does not. This seems true of most marketing:
- shampoo makes your hair shine, not reduce scalp diseases
- perfumes makes you attractive to the opposite sex, not hide the smell
- using vitamin pills makes you burst with energy, not less ill
- car brands promote lifestyles - even if a mountain bike is never mounted on your SUV
Personally - it is part of GREAT Britain, but if they want to go their own way - well good luck to them. For those who believe in UK/GB we should sell the positives:
- able to use one of the world leading currencies
- free flow of goods to/from their major markets and suppliers - unconstrained by regulation
- direct influence over the UN security council upon which UK sits + foreign policy
- Westminster - half the distance of Brussels and much greater influence
- complete job and residence flexibility
- shared defence and foreign policy capability
- cheaper government admin with shared capability - tax, vehicles, environment, etc
- devolved government already - more on offer
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Scottish Independence Referendum - smokie
