Putin bet on what he thought was a near certainty - military subjugation of the whole of Ukraine.
He lost the bet. Like all gamblers he is trying desperately to recover his losses by victory in Donbas.
If this also loses, Putin is toast. He will not only have failed, he will have proven to Russia, NATO and others that his military are incapable of taking what was perceived as the very ordinary.
Russia would be a failed conventional military threat for at least the next two decades. Desperate to save his own skin, and the reputation of his country, he will try ever more extreme measures.
To reduce this risk, should Ukraine feed him at least a morsel - eg: recognition of Crimea borders which are still disputed by Ukraine and not recognised by the UN.
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