***** This thread is now closed, please CLICK HERE to go to Volume 6 *****
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Continuing discussion.
Last edited by: VxFan on Wed 29 Jun 22 at 11:37
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I see the Italians are in Algeria looking to increase the amount of gas sent across the Med. Not enough to replace Russian supplies. But I think they'll money invested in Algeria to increase their ability to sell increasing amounts in Europe.
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All of this business just highlights how shortsighted it is to rely on another country for essential fuel supplies.
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>> All of this business just highlights how shortsighted it is to rely on another country
>> for essential fuel supplies.
Ok in Duncan world, where would you get your essential fuel supplies from.
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>>
>> Ok in Duncan world, where would you get your essential fuel supplies from.
>>
....'spoons of course...
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>> Ok in Duncan world, where would you get your essential fuel supplies from.
>>
In consultation with and advised by experts - not some blokes on an internet discussion forum - but very possibly a sufficiancy of nuclear power stations.
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The future, today! (well yesterday)
tinyurl.com/bljpjmo
Last edited by: sooty123 on Tue 12 Apr 22 at 17:07
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The reasons why a nuclear powered world is not an option: quite an interesting read
phys.org/news/2011-05-nuclear-power-world-energy.html
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>>
>> >> Ok in Duncan world, where would you get your essential fuel supplies from.
>> >>
>>
>> In consultation with and advised by experts - not some blokes on an internet discussion
>> forum - but very possibly a sufficiancy of nuclear power stations.
No uranium in the UK, you failed hurdle no 1 straight out the gate,
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>No uranium in the UK,..
I worked at a Uranium mine and processing plant for two years. I probably ingested and inhaled enough yellowcake to run Duncan's reactors for a few years.
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>> I worked at a Uranium mine and processing plant for two years. I probably ingested
>> and inhaled enough yellowcake to run Duncan's reactors for a few years.
>>
....extraction might be an "interesting" process, though...
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>....extraction might be an "interesting" process, though...
Nah. Just switch the lights out and remove the bits that glow.
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>> >No uranium in the UK,..
>>
>> I worked at a Uranium mine and processing plant for two years. I probably ingested
>> and inhaled enough yellowcake to run Duncan's reactors for a few years.
Probably accounts for your reactive behaviour.
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>> >>
>> >> >> Ok in Duncan world, where would you get your essential fuel supplies from.
>> >> >>
>> >>
>> >> In consultation with and advised by experts - not some blokes on an internet
>> discussion
>> >> forum - but very possibly a sufficiancy of nuclear power stations.
>>
>> No uranium in the UK, you failed hurdle no 1 straight out the gate,
>>
As usual you never listen, read, or comprehend.
I said " In consultation with and advised by experts - not some blokes on an internet
discussion forum"
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>> As usual you never listen, read, or comprehend.
>>
>> I said " In consultation with and advised by experts - not some blokes on
>> an internet
>> discussion forum"
I didn't say "a sufficiancy of nuclear power stations" without any consultation and advice from experts, you did.
Amazing you never listen, read or comprehend that which you write. The failure is yours, not mine.
(you spelt sufficiency incorrectly by the way, your pedant badge is revoked)
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>> (you spelt sufficiency incorrectly by the way, your pedant badge is revoked)
>>
You know what? I don't care! In fact I am glad.
The duties were quite onerous, I am not sure my heart was in it and to be honest the money wasn't all that great.
Mind you, I don't know who is worthy to step into my shoes.
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Thats fine, your resignation is accepted. However now you are no longer the expert, and "just a bloke on an Internet forum" we dont expect any pedantic interjections. As per your own standards, and we know you have standards, lord knows you have told us often enough.
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That's. And as. Don't. Lord.
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I'm very Sorry, you failed the interview stage, 3 out of 4 does not meet the required standards we expect of professionals in this prodigious forum.
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Yes, well, you can keep your chuffing job.
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>> Yes, well, you can keep your chuffing job.
>>
...should that response have been on the "steam train videos" thread.....
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>> >> Yes, well, you can keep your chuffing job.
>> >>
>>
>> ...should that response have been on the "steam train videos" thread.....
Quite, that's the standard of the applicants we get, not even fit to do basic administration.
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Some countries make silly decisions when the public are asked for their opinion via a referendum:
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zwentendorf_Nuclear_Power_Plant
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Seems the next phase is now under way, several Ukrainian officials reporting large offensives in the east.
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There seems to be a view that Putin has demanded that the Donbas is taken by the 9th May which is Victory Day in Russia. Seems plausible.
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>> There seems to be a view that Putin has demanded that the Donbas is taken
>> by the 9th May which is Victory Day in Russia. Seems plausible.
>>
My concern is that the closer they get to that date, there will be an inversely proportionate increase in their desperation if all doesn't go to plan and it will be more likely that they will use nastier and nastier weapons.
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It’s getting ever more dangerous. While it looks as if they have given up on taking Kiev the Donbas is different. They are determined to take and hold it. With that objective they will be more likely to strike at people rather than infrastructure. It’s a horrible aspect that Putin will value infrastructure more highly than people. What may temper his attacks is that there will be more ethnic Russians in Dombas.
However given the scale of losses he has accepted in the Russian army and navy I think he will go for “victory” at virtually any price. Anyone living in the area is going to be seen as the enemy or expendable.
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>> There seems to be a view that Putin has demanded that the Donbas is taken
>> by the 9th May which is Victory Day in Russia. Seems plausible.
Given the result of his current efforts to date, he may well be disappointed. Mind you, I dont think any army has met a set timetable of objectives yet.
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Putin bet on what he thought was a near certainty - military subjugation of the whole of Ukraine.
He lost the bet. Like all gamblers he is trying desperately to recover his losses by victory in Donbas.
If this also loses, Putin is toast. He will not only have failed, he will have proven to Russia, NATO and others that his military are incapable of taking what was perceived as the very ordinary.
Russia would be a failed conventional military threat for at least the next two decades. Desperate to save his own skin, and the reputation of his country, he will try ever more extreme measures.
To reduce this risk, should Ukraine feed him at least a morsel - eg: recognition of Crimea borders which are still disputed by Ukraine and not recognised by the UN.
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If things go badly for Putin I would not discount the use of tactical nuclear weapons in the Ukraine.
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its part of standard soviet military doctrine, terribly difficult to justify post event on people you are trying to "save". That and chemical is a red line that will invoke nato air strikes on your delivery capability. And as we have seen the Soviet airforce defence capability ranks just above the navy in its uselessness.
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Yes but we are not dealing with the Soviet Union which was logical and predictable if brutal. We are dealing with a Russia with virtually all the power concentrated in one man who cannot afford to lose. His mental state is questionable.
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The most likely candidate for unconventional is the steel plant just outside Mariupol.
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I see poland has said it can take 10,000 causalities from the front lines.
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A more humorous snippet of news. True or not I don't know.
It seems a UKR man has had his Bluetooth headphones looted by a Russky soldier. Apparently, being Apple, he is able to track them and presumably the location of thief's unit. Useful information for the UKR military.
Ted
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>>
>> A more humorous snippet of news. True or not I don't know.
>> It seems a UKR man has had his Bluetooth headphones looted by a Russky soldier.
>> Apparently, being Apple, he is able to track them and presumably the location of thief's
>> unit. Useful information for the UKR military.
>>
>> Ted
>>
In a similar vein, a Ukrainian millionaire's mansion has been overrun by Russian Troops and is being used as a base. He has sent the exact co-ordinates to the Ukraine's equivalent of the MOD asking them to destroy it.
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WTF is Germany playing at?
Scholz has said that they have "exhausted the resources" of what weapons they can supply to Ukraine but will offer assistance in "financing" the purchase of weapons from German manufacturers.
Words fail me.
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>> Words fail me.
>>
Which bit?
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I feel the world should be doing more in Ukraine but I don't know what.
A whole country is just being totally decimated before our very eyes, on our screens every day, and I feel we are becoming immune to the horrors going on.
I realise that we are probably doing loads behind the scenes and there is no easy answer but the video of the troop commander in Mariupol is really chilling.
www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61157670
I suppose my answer would be to permanently and quickly take out Putin and his top brass but that wouldn't be easy and wouldn't necessarily prevent escalation.
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Perhaps it's time to sanction Germany and Italy for sending billions to Russia for its gas.
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I thought we were still buying some from them?
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The good citizens of Germany and Italy will rapidly lose interest in supporting Ukraine if it means getting cold, industry and commercial hours restricted, gas for domestic cooking shortages, and power cuts.
It is not easy to undo the profound stupidity of stategic reliance on Russian energy supplies built up over the last few decades!
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The few Germans I know would happily wear more sweaters to give Putin a kick in the nads.
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>Which bit?
If that is a serious question, which surprises me, look up what military aid Germany has supplied to Ukraine so far and ask yourself if you believe that they have reached the limit of what they can provide.
While you're doing that, ponder the likelihood of Ukraine actually being able to take advantage of Germany's generous offer of finance if they don't get something better than small-arms and ammunition PDQ.
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>> >Which bit?
>>
>> If that is a serious question,
It is yes. I aware of what the German government have sent. Whilst we are being encouraged to look up news items, have a look at reports of the state of the armed forces of Germany, over say the last 5-10 years.
Here's some,
ukdefencejournal.org.uk/german-air-force-in-dire-straits-says-chief-of-staff/
www.dw.com/en/german-military-lacks-equipment-and-recruits-says-damning-report/a-47281996
nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/germanys-military-dying-110696
There's plenty more to suggest similar. They aren't exactly flush with equipment, they've spent the last 20 years spending money elsewhere.
>> While you're doing that, ponder the likelihood of Ukraine actually being able to take advantage
>> of Germany's generous offer of finance if they don't get something better than small-arms and
>> ammunition PDQ.
I'm not sure the offer of finance is limited to small arms and ammunition.
>>
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>They aren't exactly flush with equipment, they've spent the last 20 years spending money elsewhere.
www.unian.net/weapons/posol-ukrainy-raskritikoval-zayavlenie-sholca-o-postavkah-vooruzheniya-vsu-poslednie-novosti-11793699.html
Holding back the operational heavy equipment they do have is pointless as the Ukranian Ambassador to Germany previously told them. Where does the immediate threat come from?
>I'm not sure the offer of finance is limited to small arms and ammunition.
Small-arms, ammunition and a few MANPADS is what they have supplied to date but that wasn't the point I was making.
Last edited by: Kevin on Wed 20 Apr 22 at 19:33
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>> >They aren't exactly flush with equipment, they've spent the last 20 years spending money elsewhere.
>>
>> www.unian.net/weapons/posol-ukrainy-raskritikoval-zayavlenie-sholca-o-postavkah-vooruzheniya-vsu-poslednie-novosti-11793699.html
>>
>>
I'm not able to read that, is there an English version.
>> >I'm not sure the offer of finance is limited to small arms and ammunition.
>>
>> Small-arms, ammunition and a few MANPADS is what they have supplied to date but that
>> wasn't the point I was making.
>>
Apologies, I'm not sure what your getting at.
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>I'm not able to read that, is there an English version.
Sorry (and to everyone else for the long quote). Try it with Chrome browser and it should ask if you want the page translated into whatever your current Locale is set to.
"The Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany Andriy Melnik has criticized the statement of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz that the country had exhausted the resources to supply the necessary weapons for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
This was reported by DW (Deutsche Welle) with reference to Melnik's interview with the dpa (Deutsche Presse-Agentur) agency.
The diplomat noted that in Ukraine Scholz's statement was met "with great disappointment and bitterness."
On the one hand, Melnik noted, Germany's willingness to allocate additional funding for armaments can only be welcomed. On the other hand, there are still more questions than answers.
"The statement that the Bundeswehr can no longer deliver anything to Ukraine is incomprehensible," Melnyk admitted.
According to him, the German army is armed with over 400 Marder infantry fighting vehicles, of which about 100 are used only for exercises and training, and therefore they could be transferred to Ukraine.
In addition, the ambassador continued, the Bundeswehr has about 800 Fuchs armored personnel carriers, a significant part of which is not used and therefore can be immediately sent to Ukraine.
"The supply of 2000 self-propelled howitzers could also be of decisive importance," Melnik said, adding that the Bundeswehr has about 120 such long-range artillery weapons in service.
On Tuesday evening, Scholz made it clear that Germany would not supply weapons to Ukraine from the warehouses of the Ministry of Defense: "Here we must admit that our capabilities have reached their limit."
Instead, he announced his intention to finance direct arms supplies from German manufacturers. For example, anti-tank weapons, air defense systems, ammunition, as well as what can be used in artillery combat.
There was also a link (no longer there) to another URL which referred to Melnik basically saying "They weren't built to be parked and polished, let us have them".
My other point was that if Ukraine cannot contain the Russkies and begins to fall apart there will be no central Ukrainian Govt. able to take advantage of Germany's generous subsidies to it's arms manufacturers finance offer.
Any idea what the lead time is on a hundred tanks?
The above also ignores what has been mooted elsewhere but has now been raised by the Turkish Foreign Minister although I don't think he means Germany.
"There are countries in NATO that want the war in Ukraine to continue. They see the weakening of Russia in the continuation of the war. They are not much concerned about the situation in Ukraine,"
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There was also a link (no longer there) to another URL which referred to Melnik
>> basically saying "They weren't built to be parked and polished, let us have them".
The same could be said of any country that hasn't emptied its arsenals to Ukraine. I don't see why Germany are much different from others. How low should they go?
They could send various pieces of equipment but AFV take more maintenance and support than small arms. They are also unfamiliar to the Ukr military. Perhaps they are in poor state and are mainly unserviceable, awaiting spares. Its quite possible.
A better option would be to offer those countries that still use Russian equipment to transfer it to Ukr and then get that equipment backfilled by other NATO countries.
>> My other point was that if Ukraine cannot contain the Russkies and begins to fall
>> apart there will be no central Ukrainian Govt. able to take advantage of Germany's generous
>> subsidies to it's arms manufacturers finance offer.
Well if the country falls then they'll be lots of things they won't be able to do.
Germany has for many years had a (to us in the UK) a weird relationship with Russia, so to us they should be doing more. But a Russia policy that has run for decades doesn't change overnight. Its a mindset across their country.
Last edited by: VxFan on Thu 21 Apr 22 at 12:51
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>The same could be said of any country that hasn't emptied its a***nals to Ukraine.
No-one has been asked to "empty" their a***nals so that's a strawman argument
>They could send various pieces of equipment but AFV take more
>maintenance and support than small arms....
How about we let the Ukrainians decide what kit they can use effectively instead of dreaming up poor excuses for denying them the choice. They are, after all, best placed to make that decision.
>A better option would be to offer those countries that still use Russian
>equipment...
Already being done but why do you think it should be one or t'other and not both?
>Germany has for many years had a (to us in the UK) a weird relationship
>with Russia...
Which is why Germany's half-hearted support has deservedly been singled out for criticism by Ukraine.
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No-one has been asked to "empty" their a***nals so that's a strawman argument
>>
I hadn't suggested that they had. It was an example that many countries could have the charge of being able to do more but hadn't. Germany isn't unique in this regard.
How about we let the Ukrainians decide what kit they can use effectively instead of
>> dreaming up poor excuses for denying them the choice. They are, after all, best placed
>> to make that decision.
It's not 'dreamt' up it's a statement of fact.
>> >A better option would be to offer those countries that still use Russian
>> >equipment...
>>
>> Already being done but why do you think it should be one or t'other and
>> not both?
>>
Simpler and quicker to get the equipment into service.
>> >Germany has for many years had a (to us in the UK) a weird relationship
>> >with Russia...
>>
>> Which is why Germany's half-hearted support has deservedly been singled out for criticism by Ukraine.
I think there's more to it than that. They are a key player in terms of the EU now, where the Ukrainians can push them the others will follow.
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>I hadn't suggested that they had. It was an example that many countries
>could have the charge of being able to do more but hadn't. Germany isn't
>unique in this regard.
I don't recall any other country declaring that they will not send any more equipment to Ukraine, which is where we started. Enlighten me.
>It's not 'dreamt' up it's a statement of fact.
More maintenance and support may be a fact but "Perhaps they are in poor state and are mainly unserviceable, awaiting spares. Its quite possible." is conjecture to try and justify Germany's statement. I call it as I see it.
>Simpler and quicker to get the equipment into service.
As I asked previously, why not both if Ukraine are saying they need it?
>I think there's more to it than that. They are a key player in terms of
>the EU now, where the Ukrainians can push them the others will follow.
The Ukranians have singled them out because they don't trust Germany. Where Ukraine is concerned Germany has always cosied up to Russia.
Read this to get a gist of what a Ukranian journalist thinks of Germany's actions.
www.unian.net/war/oruzhie-dlya-ukrainy-usilenie-vsu-kak-garantii-bezopasnosti-dlya-ukrainy-i-mira-novosti-vtorzheniya-rossii-na-ukrainu-11794248.html
BTW. The fasttrack EU membership paperwork was completed and returned by Ukraine last week. It took them about a week.
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>> I don't recall any other country declaring that they will not send any more equipment
>> to Ukraine, which is where we started. Enlighten me.
All countries have limits to what they can give, which is what i was getting at.
>> >It's not 'dreamt' up it's a statement of fact.
>>
>> More maintenance and support may be a fact but "Perhaps they are in poor state
>> and are mainly unserviceable, awaiting spares. Its quite possible." is conjecture to try and justify
>> Germany's statement.
Not particularly conjecture no. Evidence further up thread.
>>
>>
>> The Ukranians have singled them out because they don't trust Germany. Where Ukraine is concerned
>> Germany has always cosied up to Russia.
>>
>>
Very much so a different relationship to many other European countries over many years.
I'll leave it there i think.
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Germany has changed radically and quickly in their attitude to Russia, Nato and European security. Its ripped up its attitude of inclusion, dialogue and trade with Russia, to one of hostility.
Its Putins biggest mistake, the old enemy has suddenly become the new enemy, and active one.
Rather than chastise and criticise Germany for their past position, Ukraine needs to build upon their new position. Ukraines current attitude to Germany is counter productive.
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>Rather than chastise and criticise Germany for their past position,
>Ukraine needs to build upon their new position. Ukraines current
>attitude to Germany is counter productive.
It certainly would be nice but who do you suggest that Ukraine talks to, to build that renewed relationship?
The Foreign minister who said that there'd been enough delay and Germany was ready to send tanks and infantry vehicles to Ukraine but was then contradicted by the Defense minister claiming they didn't have anything to send?
Or maybe Scholz who actually refused Estonia permission to transfer German made artillery to Ukraine? Who last week grudgingly made a show of asking Ukraine to give him a list of their urgent needs, only to cross off everything classified as a heavy weapon? The same Scholz who is now claiming that they can't supply heavy stuff because it might provoke Putin to go nuclear and is getting his 'arris kicked by public, press and other members of the Bundestag for making up excuses?
Even the German public are getting tired of his nonsense.
www.dw.com/en/why-isnt-germany-supplying-ukraine-with-heavy-weapons/a-61553273
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My son-in-laws parents have sponsored two young women and their sons(11 and 15) from this region. They picked them up from Luton Airport last Friday evening and took them home to Kent. They slept for twelve hours that night.
They left with one small case each - think marginally bigger than a cabin case - containing their lives and spent several weeks living in a school gymnasium in Poland. They speak Russian but no English yet. The boys are quiet and, not unexpectedly, mature beyond their years.
It is heart breaking to see their area being decimated and knowing they, too, are watching it.
Last edited by: DeeW on Thu 21 Apr 22 at 00:42
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>> My son-in-laws parents have sponsored two young women and their sons(11 and 15) from this…..
>>
Brilliant re your in-laws!
Re the sleeping, no doubt exhaustion but can also be a side effect of depression, which wouldn’t be a surprise given all these they have gone through.
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Seems the Russians are indeed trying to advance to the Moldovan frontier, perhaps these missile strikes will signal the start of a drive westwards. Although I'm not sure they have the strength to do that right now.
I think they have their hands full in the east of the country right now.
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They may claim they are heading for Modolva - but it is difficult to believe anything they say.
Putin does not want to concede his Special Operation is a failure - it means the end of his career (and possibly him). So he continues to assert that it is all part of the plan, and the plan changes to keep the Special Op alive.
Any small gain will be promoted in Russia as a triumph of the Russian military machine - if may get to the stage when it matters not what the triumph is (eg: looting the Ukrainian sunflower crop), just that it can be celebrated.
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Indeed they may try though. I don't see them being able to move far out of their bridgehead in the south though.
There's obviously structural issues in the Russian army. Whether they can create and then sustain a force large enough to get to the far west of Ukraine is unlikely.
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There's a meeting in Germany being hosted by the US this week with representatives from Germany, Ukraine and others. Blinken is at 41,000ft about 1000 miles off Lands End on his way to Ukraine atm.
Let's hope he bangs some heads together.
Last edited by: Kevin on Sat 23 Apr 22 at 21:49
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Looks like we may well offer Poland British tanks so they can send their soviet era tanks to Ukraine, nothing seems to be confirmed yet.
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For the last four or five days there's been about twice the usual number of Chinook flights passing back and forth near our house. We live under the flightpath between Odiham and Salisbury. Quite a few single rotors as well.
I guess we've been holding training sessions. Nice weather for it.
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Chinook beer, from Goose Eye Brewery in Keighley, has been one of my top 5 beers for a number of years.
A few years ago some of the boys and girls from RAF Odiham visited my part of the world to walk the 3 Peaks. We chatted to them in my local and I believe Chinook beer was subsequently served in the Officers Mess.
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>> beer
>>
Apropos of very little, I was in The 'Edmund Tylney' on Thursday and they were selling Doom Bar at 99p per pint.
I knew that you would want to know.
Edit.
Make that Friday.
Last edited by: Duncan on Sun 24 Apr 22 at 06:19
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Someone on the Wokingham local Facebook group was complaining about the nasty noisy Chinooks going over too early in the day for them.
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>> Someone on the Wokingham local Facebook group was complaining about the nasty noisy Chinooks going
>> over too early in the day for them.
I wouldn't worry here's always loads of complainers.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Sat 23 Apr 22 at 23:32
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>Someone on the Wokingham local Facebook group was complaining about the nasty noisy
>Chinooks going over too early in the day for them.
Owners of 'period' properties near Odiham have had custom-made triple glazing installed and paid for by MoD.
They are still fighting to get compensation for structural damage they claim is caused by rotor wash.
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>>Chinook....
There have been loads of helicopter training flights in the countryside to the west of Telford for the last month or so.
When heading up the M11 to the Fens a 2 or so weeks ago what looked like an Apache Helicopter flew past, flying almost parallel to the motorway and really close. It was just south of Duxford and I wondered if it was visiting for a show.
Last edited by: zippy on Sun 24 Apr 22 at 00:53
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>> There's a meeting in Germany being hosted by the US this week with representatives from
>> Germany, Ukraine and others. Blinken is at 41,000ft about 1000 miles off Lands End on
>> his way to Ukraine atm.
>>
>> Let's hope he bangs some heads together.
>>
It looks like he has landed in Cardiff.
Of all the wonderfully cultural cities in Northern Europe and he chooses Cardiff :-)
(I have spent some great times in Cardiff and it really is a lovely city!)
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>.perhaps these missile strikes will signal the start of a drive westwards
The missile attacks on the western cities seem almost spiteful, although they are ostensibly to hamper the Ukrainian ability to defend elsewhere.
A big question for me is whether Putin is rational or not. Irrational is a lot harder to deal with.
In general the world presents a depressing picture. The leaders of 2/3 of the world's major powers are inhumane, imperialist, ultranationalist fascists who have each changed the law or constitution of their country to allow them to remain in power indefinitely.
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www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61239075
Looks like a clear escalation in support.
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Liz Truss - scary woman NOT
Still I do think we need to ramp up a bit as, so far, what we are doing hasn't had much noticeable effect. Don't ask me what though.
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I would think the fact that there is still a Ukrainian government is a noticeable effect.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Wed 27 Apr 22 at 10:34
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Well yes, but I'm sure you know what I meant.
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Not sure I agree. The supply of arms by the West has made a very noticeable difference to the progress of the war. Large numbers of tanks missiles, guns armoured vehicles etc have been destroyed by weapons supplied by the West. The result to date would be very different without those weapons .
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Well all right, that too.
So can I alter my statement to "Still I do think we need to ramp up a bit. Don't ask me what though."
:-)
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Possibly.
If we say no involvement at all is zero and all out nuclear war is ten we are on about three I reckon so plenty of room for escalation.
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Rhetoric from Truss, Johnson, or anybody else won't solve this. TBH I don't see how negotiation can work well when Putin's first operating principle is to lie about everything, all the time.
I just hope the NATO response is and continues to be well managed. There is no room for cock-ups here. I expect the US to have the most sway but it's probably desirable to have a small team making decisions with very good intelligence support and advice. And a back channel to the Russian military/defence ministry.
If every member of NATO and or the EU has to be involved in decisions it won't go well.
Applying standard problem solving methods, the problem presumably is that Russian leadership apparently believes that it can invade with impunity sovereign territories posing no threat to its own security. The aim, presumably, is to demonstrate that it can't.
What options have been tabled to do this, I don't know. The one that seems to have been chosen is to ensure that Ukraine doesn't "lose", without appearing to threaten Russia's security.
The implementation plan is almost certainly incomplete.
The aim and constraints, other things being equal, will preclude the use of overwhelming force (but not necessarily the threat of it, which needs to be well judged). But it will be necessary at least to match/neutralise the resources being brought to bear by Russia. Hence the need for more tanks AA missiles and possibly aircraft. is there really any alternative that doesn't license Russia to carry on invading?
If MAD is still a deterrent, there is a chance that we will all survive, this time. But I don't expect the human race to survive another 1,000 years of these kinds of risk.
I'm just playing my own silly game of course. No doubt reality has many more moving parts.
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Biden has just announced a $33 billion aid package for the Ukraine which includes 10 anti tank missiles for every Russian tank. Escalation stage four I think.
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>>Biden has just announced a $33 billion aid package for the Ukraine which includes 10 anti tank missiles for every Russian tank. Escalation stage four I think.
With a success rate of ~80% of missiles fired hitting their target I expect will be Russia holding back tanks and making much more use of their Russian-soil missile launch capability, which will open them up as fair targets for the Ukrainians with NATO/EU missiles.
= Stage 5
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>> which will open them up as fair targets for the Ukrainians with NATO/EU missiles.
>>
>> = Stage 5
>>
My guess is that the USA will send their Patriot missile defence system in to see how effective it is against the current generation of Russian missiles.
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Making much more use of their Russian-soil missile launch
>> capability, which will open them up as fair targets for the Ukrainians with NATO/EU missiles.
>>
To a certain extent the ukr already have. They have attacked several russian airbases close to the ukr/rus border.
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>Interesting article on an area on the edges of this conflict.
Last week the Ukranians reported that aerial recon had seen activity at airfields in Transnistria that looked like they were making preparations for larger/heavier aircraft even though any aircraft would be in range of their air defense kit.
Over the weekend they've been cheering folk up by reporting what they claim are the latest Russian cockups.
In eastern Ukraine the Russian troops have started shooting each other. Apparently there was a shootout between about 100 Chechens and Buryats arguing over stuff they'd looted.
A photo of a downed Russian drone that carried the logo of the Minstry of Emergencies/Disasters.
A propaganda video for Russian state TV showed an interview with a Russian officer explaining that the antiquated tank he was stood next to had allegedly been abandoned by Ukranian forces. Unfortunately when the camera panned out you could still see what remained of a 'Z' painted below the turret.
There was also an interesting article about why the TOS1 and TOS1-A are pretty ineffective and just hype. I'll see if I can find a link.
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www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61297478
Next batch of equipment announced. The vehicle launched Brimstone will be an increase in effectiveness against the russians. They are extremely good at destroying cold war era russian tanks.
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Ukrainian intel has confirmed that the Russian Ministries of Finance and Defense have begun to audit equipment in storage and cost of additional kit.
Looks like the rumours they're preparing to call up reserves might be true.
In other news, the Defense Ministry of Belarus has issued a statement that, after an inspection, they are conducting a 'training exercise' on the Ukraine border and relocating a missile division.
"During the inspection, a significant amount of military equipment was planned to be moved, which may complicate movement on public roads," the country's Defense Ministry said.
'The movements are for training purposes and do not pose a threat either to the European community as a whole or to neighboring countries in particular.'
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'The movements are for training purposes and do not pose a threat either to the European community as a whole or to neighboring countries in particular.'
Now when did we hear that before ? :/
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There's a Rivet Joint and a J-Stars watching them.
And we've got a Lancaster up in case it's needed.
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>> There's a Rivet Joint and a J-Stars watching them.
>>
>> And we've got a Lancaster up in case it's needed.
There is a theory that a Lanc is pretty immune to most modern ground to air and air to air threats. Its flight profile and EMF/heat signature does not compute. Brooklands museum has some spare tallboys, would make a right mess of the Kremlin.
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There was a Chinook doing circuits around Bromley late last night before it came to rest at a school and went off again. globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=43c5f7
Training exercise no doubt. There was also an Apache north of London.
Re the audit, the cynic in me thinks much of the purchased equipment isn't actually "there" but has ended up as folding readies in the back pocket of corrupt officials.
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>>Re the audit, the cynic in me thinks much of the purchased equipment isn't actually "there" but has ended up as folding readies in the back pocket of corrupt officials.
Like the 200,000 Afghan troops ready to repel the Taliban...
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We may all sleep more easily in the knowledge that far from representing a major conventional threat to the West, Russia has proven they currently lack a properly trained and effectively equipped force with a competent leadership and strategy.
Sadly they still have nuclear, chemical and biological. Whether they will feel more inclined to use them given their obvious other deficiencies is unknown. They will also be at pains post Ukraine (whatever the outcome) to radically overhaul their conventional capability.
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> Re the audit, the cynic in me thinks much of the purchased equipment isn't actually
>> "there" but has ended up as folding readies in the back pocket of corrupt officials.
>>
>
Either that or its a pile of rust.
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>> And we've got a Lancaster up in case it's needed.
It was flying around here at the weekend, local airshow and flypast at Santa Pod.
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>> www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61297478
>>
>> Next batch of equipment announced. The vehicle launched Brimstone will be an increase in effectiveness
>> against the russians. They are extremely good at destroying cold war era russian tanks.
>>
Looks like they are in use already.
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While browsing the net I came across this little titbit.
At the beginning of April Chechen units of the Russian forces stole a load of new John Deere equipment from a Ukraine dealership, including two top of the range harvesters. The kit was shipped back to Russia.
Unfortunately they didn't know that the equipment has callhome and remote-access built in, so John Deere has bricked them all remotely.
It's amazing what you find googling for tractors.
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Haven't seen this reported elsewhere yet but it looks like a Russian frigate has been hit.
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CNN Interview with Generel Wesley Clark (Ret'd) on his opinion how the war should progress.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwvY6Tm_FqQ
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The Israel strategy. If your enemy hits you, hit them twice, and don't give them the opportunity to become stronger than you.
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Palestinians and Iranians dont have nukes.
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>> Palestinians and Iranians don't have nukes.
And if they looked like getting any we know what would happen.
With Russia/USSR that horse bolted a long time ago. Unfortunately they can't be allowed to get away with using them, or the deterrent ceases to be a deterrent.
Better to get Putin to believe that now, than to wait until it has to be demonstrated, the general seemed to be saying.
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Ukraine has told the EU and Gazprom in Russia that it is no longer responsible for maintaining the supply of gas through one of the pipelines which supplies 30% of Russian gas to EU countries.
The compressor station for that pipeline is now in occupied territory and is being tampered with so they have requested Gazprom re-routes those volumes through another pipeline still under Ukrainian control.
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www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61408700
Further unintended consquences for Russia, seems more and more likely both countries will join NATO.
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Ooopps, You were not expecting this were you Pute me ole mate.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61420185
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A Russian representative to the UN has threatened that "Russia is ready to counter the threat of the alliance" if Finland and Sweden become members of NATO.
"As soon as Finland and Sweden become NATO members and alliance units are there, these territories will become a possible target for the Russian military."
There are also unconfirmed reports that a Russian logistics ship taking reinforcements and hardware, including anti-aircraft missiles, to Snake island is on fire and being towed back to Sevastopol. Could explain why an RAF RC135 (RRR7242/ZZ665) was flying loops over the Black Sea earlier today.
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>> A Russian representative to the UN has threatened that "Russia is ready to counter the
>> threat of the alliance" if Finland and Sweden become members of NATO.
>>
>> "As soon as Finland and Sweden become NATO members and alliance units are there, these
>> territories will become a possible target for the Russian military."
>>
>>
>>
At some point the rest of the world is going to have to stand up to Putin and call his bluff. Constantly backing down and giving in to his threats is no long term strategy.
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For anyone who had any sympathy with Russian troops being placed in to a conflict that they supposedly knew nothing about (they supposedly thought it was a training exercise), well, it seems that they are as evil as their leader....
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61425025
Last edited by: zippy on Fri 13 May 22 at 00:15
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Rumours from Ukraine that there's some dodgy dealing going on.
Erdogan's spokesman has said that Russia "wants to sit at the table" with Ukraine but that "all parties including Europe and US must be involved and we are talking to them".
Macron has spoken with Zelensky and offered to mediate with Putin if Ukraine will make certain concessions on sovereignty. Zelensky told him %^&*-off "No thanks."
This follows intel that Putin has been sending "emissaries" on the q.t. to some EU countries.
Suspicion is that Putin is preparing the ground for a "Sorry chaps, all a misunderstanding. Let's call it quits eh?" and hoping that the West will pressure Ukraine into giving up the land already occupied by Russia.
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>> Suspicion is that Putin is preparing the ground for a "Sorry chaps, all a misunderstanding.
>> Let's call it quits eh?" and hoping that the West will pressure Ukraine into giving
>> up the land already occupied by Russia.
Makes sense when you say it, all that matters to him now is what he can bank and how much better if Russia doesn't have to plough all its dwindling revenues into armaments indefinitely. His power over NATO is sustained by threats of nuclear weapons use but the longer he goes on threatening, the less credible the threats are.
If we are to believe he is really as paranoid as his behaviour suggests, he will also want to stop any further expansion of NATO - which I don't think he should be allowed to do. It would seem more rational to me that he wants to keep Finland, Sweden, and others out of NATO to preserve Russia's empire-building options rather than to keep Russia safe from attack.
Is he paying his cards while he still has some?
If NATO and the EU think they can get Russia under control, what Zelensky wants won't signify.
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Reports suggest that on some fronts Russia is retreating - some of this may be exaggerated but there is no evidence of Russian successes.
Whilst Zelensky continues to fight, the West will continue to supply him with weapons. Both from pride, and the possibility of recovering lost territory he is unlikely to back down. The West will also be happy to see the conventional threat neutered if the Ukraine conflict is extended.
Sweden and Finland NATO membership raises the risk of a Russian response. As the Russian conventional threat is proving weak and is already fully committed in Ukraine this seems unlikely. The final risk is nuclear - this is a judgement call - is it a real risk or potential posturing.
On balance IMHO NATO should not back down on Finland and Sweden membership. Whilst Putin may regard it as provocative, it is, and should be, wholly a decision for NATO to make.
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A retired Russian Colonel speaks out against the war on Russian TV.
Retired colonel speaks out on Russian TV www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61484222
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Astonishing. He's either a very brave and principled man or they're getting ready to dump Putin. I fear it's the former.
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>>He's either a very brave and principled man or they're getting ready to dump Putin
The colonel has been on TV again and was back on message.
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I thought he might have had a heart attack or fallen out of an open window by now. Perhaps the FSB are a bit busy at the moment.
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In the meantine, Russia has said that they will interrogate the Ukranians evacuated from Azovstal to identify "nationalists" as part of an investigation into "crimes" committed by Ukraine against the civilian population of Donbas.
The State Duma is also preparing laws that will ban exchange of prisoners who are members of the Azov regiment and introduce a mandatory death sentence for "terrorists".
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twitter.com/i/status/1527078137582047236
If you cannot wait go directly to 17s in.
What is about politicians.
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I guess it's that, unlike the rest of us, their every word is recorded one way or another so the slightest slip gets aired, usually with glee.
OTOH it is pretty careless and their slips do often seem to be on a crucial point!!
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A guy called Arestovich who is an adviser to Zelensky went nuts on TV earlier today, using the F-word multiple times. It sounds like the pressure on Zelensky to give up territory is being ramped up by some EU countries.
Apparently Italy has proposed that a paragraph on the need for peace talks is included in the final statement of the EU Summit at the end of May.
One Ukranian news station reported that it's been suggested that everything currently occupied by Russia ie. Crimea, Donbas and the entire South East of Ukraine is handed over. Hungary and Cyprus have supported Italy's proposal and also bitched about any proposed new EU sanctions.
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mobile.twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1532457191038500881
I think he must have been away the day they did marksmanship principals.
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Macron seems to have suffered a blow to the head recently, if the reported remarks of his are true. He seems not to want to Russia look bad and he'd like to be the go between Russia and the west.
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This "not wanting Russia to look bad" is going nowhere. Putin has been tacitly offered the opportunity to drop hands and keep the Russian-occupied areas in the east but has shown no real interest in a settlement. It would be catastrophic to offer him more but clearly that is what he is intent on.
I don't think this will end until Ukraine decides it's had enough, or Putin is dead/deposed.
Now Russia has been holding nuclear attack drills. This looks like sabre rattling and hopefully is, maybe it's a response to the US sending HIMARS to Ukraine.
Speculation that Putin is suffering from pancreatic cancer are unconfirmed.
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>> This "not wanting Russia to look bad" is going nowhere.
I think they've managed that all by themselves and continue to do so.
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Both Macron and Scholz are complete idiots. I think Zelensky is so fed-up with them that he now seems to be doing a lot of his talking to them through the media. They've been told multiple times that Ukraine is not giving up ANY territory and they should stop "going behind my back". That was echoed by Biden. I wonder if their attitude would be any different if it was France or Germany on the receiving end.
Along with Turkey objecting to Sweden and Finland joining NATO and all the political leaders (sic) in Europe bickering between themselves I really despair.
Polish PM Andrzej Duda told the press “only Ukraine has the right to decide about its future,” and criticised the "worrying voices" wanting to allow Putin to 'save face'. He also took a swipe at Scholz who reneged on an agreement to replace Leopard tanks that Poland gave to Ukraine.
"We have provided Ukraine with a large number of tanks, because we believe that this is our responsibility as a neighbour. You didn't keep your promise. And frankly, we're very disappointed with that."
Last weekend Welt am Sonntag revealed that despite Scholz's public statements that Germany was providing heavy equipment and APC's to Ukraine, since the end of March they have only sent one batch of anti-tank mines and one batch of gun parts and grenades. Later, the German deputy finance minister said that they didn't want to send anything to Ukraine that could possibly result in escalation to nuclear conflict.
www.welt.de/politik/ausland/plus239047105/Ukraine-Krieg-Trotz-Versprechungen-liefert-Berlin-seit-neun-Wochen-kaum-Waffen.html
On MSNBC von der Layen said that the EU is buying Russian oil to stop them profiting from selling it at a higher price on the open market. What?!
Meanwhile, Hungary's demands for EU money to help reduce it's dependency on Russian oil provoked Katarina Barly, the VP of the European Parliament, to say that the Hungarian political system is 'blatantly corrupt' and "everyone knows where the money will go... through his (Oban's) family and clans".
European Union? It's more like my £$%^ing student union.
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Seems a move that he thinks will puff his image up by offering Russia a face saving conclusion that will allow Russia to benefit from the invasion. He seems to want to throw Ukraine under the bus to show to give him some sort of grand example of his and France's diplomacy.
It gives Russia a free pass to their idea that Ukraine shouldn't really be a country at all. It's wanting to allow Russia to carve up the countries on it's boarder as it sees fit. I can't think how France and his image both abroad and at home (?) is going to be boosted by playing some supporting role to Russia.
I see the Ukrainians have reported to have said; we don't need go betweens, we need allies.
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Sanctions on Russia due to Ukraine are costly.
Both Germany and France (and most of EU) have record inflation just as the UK.
Russia provides ~40% of EU gas and ~30% of EU oil. Ukraine food exports are significant. A shortage of food and energy is a major driver of inflation.
Alternatives take time to implement - eg: new gas and oil pipelines, port facilities.
Politicians may pay a high price for doing the "right thing". By next winter most of Europe may be struggling with recession, falling real wages, inflation, etc. Those towards the bottom of the economic pile will be cold and hungry.
Politicians with their instinct for survival are inevitably rationalising the justification for concessions.
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This bloke
www.youtube.com/watch?v=kNv6LSpOqok&t=314s&ab_channel=Dr.JohnCampbell
forecasts famine because of the loss of grain from Ukraine.
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>Politicians with their instinct for survival are inevitably rationalising the justification for concessions.
Ignoring my failure to understand the logic behind rewarding a psychopath with yet more control over your food and fuel supplies -
If Macron, Scholz and Draghi (and that senile nonaganarian Kissinger) think that giving away Ukranian territory that isn't theirs to give away will satisfy Putin and they'll then be hailed as giants of diplomacy they are seriously misreading the situation.
Actually, I don't think it's that. Too many people have pointed out to them the problems in allowing Putin and his goons the chance to correct their military £$%^-ups and take another shot. All three of them are also taking flak from their domestic media and Scholz is facing direct threats from within his coalition. They must be very aware of where Joe Public's sympathies lie.
Maybe I'm being overly suspicious but it's beginning to smack of desperation and there's a whiff of something not quite right. Whatever they are up to, there's no winding the clock back on this one. Too much evidence of wanton brutality and war crimes for that.
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When captured.
Are we surprised? Should they be surprised? Surely when you go to fight in someone else's war, the chances you will die is high, and must be a well recognised risk.
Should we, as a country, be bothered?
Certainly dont think they should be of value to us when it comes to dealing with Putin.
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>> Are we surprised? Should they be surprised? Surely when you go to fight in someone
>> else's war, the chances you will die is high, and must be a well recognised
>> risk.
Did they go to fight someone else's war?
Reports suggest both have Ukrainian wives/partners and were in that country's forces before the February invasion.
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I believe they moved there in around 2018, they volunteered and joined the Ukr armed forces. Fairly common for non nationals to join the armed forces of another country.
Although we know that doesn't matter nor the fact the Russians use non nationals in this war. It's simply an attempt at leverage.
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The Russian Foreign Ministry has told the British Embassy in Moscow that any representations concerning the two Brits should be made to the L/DPR, not them.
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Reports suggest the Ukrainians are running out of soviet ammunition, they are reported to be getting through 5000-6000 artillery shells per day.
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>Reports suggest the Ukrainians are running out of soviet ammunition,..
No worries. They've got Chancellor Scholz to help them out.
A few days ago he told a press conference that Germany has provided more military support to Ukraine than anyone else except the US and they're sending their most advanced kit to Ukraine and providing training.
www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/06/07/giving-ukraine-military-aid-britain-says-germany/
Curiously he didn't mention that one of his ministers has said that it's unlikely they will get delivered before Oct/Nov and they won't be sending ammunition. 'Oh and by the way, we also have a software problem so the kit currently has problems with other NATO supplied ammo.'
In the meantime they'll send some old Gepard AA guns.
The Greeks are less than enthusiastic about his dithering as well.
To get out of giving Ukraine the de-commissioned Marder Infantry vehicles they begged for he's told Athens that he'll let them have the old Marders instead, if they send Ukraine all their 50-year-old Soviet BMP-1s. He hasn't yet invited Greece to choose which ones haven't been cannibalized and they've said it'll take months to get them serviceable and swapped out to the islands where the BMPs are.
The previous Greek Defence Minister said "This is a circus. A mockery of both Ukraine and Greece."
www.bild.de/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/ukraine-krieg-griechen-zerlegen-scholz-waffen-ringtausch-80318168.bild.html
Ukraine has responded by saying "We haven't even seen the 5000 helmets you promised us in January yet" and the other Baltic States have told him that his 'dialogue' with Putin is just time-wasting.
Interestingly, German imports from Russia increased by 6Bn€ Jan to April so the sanctions are working well too.
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I did think the Germans needed a bit of time to come around, they've had that now. They need to start switching on.
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It depends on your definition of "end."
This still has genes in the first world war.
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Well I suppose you can make the argument that one war begets another but lets go with the end of killing and fighting and the tacit acceptance of Ukraine’s existence as a State by Russia with some sort of reasonable coexistence of the two countries.
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>> Well I suppose you can make the argument that one war begets another but lets
>> go with the end of killing and fighting and the tacit acceptance of Ukraine’s existence
>> as a State by Russia with some sort of reasonable coexistence of the two countries.
High criteria the last bit - so never. In one way Putin is right, Ukraine is more Russian than Russia.
Really you need to redraw Russia from the West Ukrainian Border to about 200 miles East of Moscow, and hand the rest over to a new country, maybe called the Mongolian bad lands.
Last edited by: Zero on Sun 12 Jun 22 at 16:43
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Really you need to redraw Russia from the West Ukrainian Border to about 200 miles
>> East of Moscow,
>>
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kievan_Rus%27
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the tacit acceptance of Ukraine’s existence
>> as a State by Russia
I'm not sure that's required for this to come to some sort of end. I think the chances of the ukr pushing the Russians out of their country now look quite low.
I would think as it becomes clear that either can't gain much the fighting will wind down. Eastern Ukraine will probably end up looking like North Cyprus. Some sort decades long frozen conflict.
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Depends on whether Zelensky gives up on the Donbass, and rasPutin is content with just that.
If Ukraine hammer the with Rus with their new long-range artillery, then it goes on (and on and on)
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>How will this war end?
I'll paraphrase a politician from a few weeks ago.
'Putin is now playing the long-game. He's seen the discord and he's hoping that everyone will get bored and support to Ukraine will fade away.'
Although I see that this weekend Macron and Scholz (and Kissinger) have all started back-pedalling on their calls for Ukraine to let Putin have Donbas and save-face.
It hasn't stopped Poland upping the pressure on Western leaders though, particularly Macron and Scholz. Duda was interviewed by Bild recently and didn't take a deliberate swipe at either of them but left no doubt that he wasn't impressed. I'm sure that they are genuinely worried about Russian expansion because let's face it, it won't stop at The Donbas, but I get the feeling that there's something else there.
Now, Radoslav Sikorski, a Polish MEP has let the Budapest Memorandum out of the bag again and stated that under that agreement the Western powers, by which he means UK and USA, are perfectly entitled to donate nuclear weapons to Ukraine.
Won't happen of course but Poland are definitely taking the lead in keeping everyone on their toes.
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en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge
www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2022/05/06/ukraine-threatens-russias-vital-bridge-to-crimea/?sh=50979b115d77
"....robotic boats – Uncrewed Surface Vessels or USVs – can be a useful means for carrying out kamikaze attacks."
Daily Telegraph 17 Jun
We’ll use Western weapons to destroy bridge linking Russia to Crimea, threatens Ukraine general
Crossing has been crucial for Moscow to send reinforcements, but Western officials fear an assault on it could led to wider conflict.
The bridge over the Strait of Kerch cost Russia nearly £3 billion to build.
A top Ukrainian general has threatened to use Western weapons to blow up a bridge linking mainland Russia to the occupied Crimea.
Maj Gen Dmytro Marchenko, who has been leading the defence of the Mykolaiv region in Ukraine’s south since the start of the war, told the Krym.Realii website on Wednesday night that Kyiv considered the 227-metre Kerch bridge a legitimate target.
“This will be our number one target,” he said when asked what Ukraine would do with the new advanced weapons it has been seeking from the West.
“We have to tear this umbilical cord to cut off (Russian) reinforcements. As soon as it’s done, (Russians) will panic.”
Many Western leaders have been wary of sending long-range artillery to Ukraine, fearing that Kyiv could launch retaliatory strikes against Russia, which could potentially spark an even bigger conflict.
US officials earlier this month announced a major shipment of multiple-launch rocket systems, saying that Kyiv had given assurances that it would not use those weapons against targets in Russia.
Russia has been using the £2.7 billion bridge it built over the Strait of Kerch after the annexation to bring in troops and weaponry to the Black Sea peninsula that served as a staging ground for the invasion of Ukraine’s south in the first week of the war.
Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, on Thursday insisted that the bridge was fully safe for passenger transport and was guarded by the Russian military's "preventive measures".
However, in response, Ukraine's military intelligence agency on Thursday evening released what appear to be full blueprints of the bridge.
The remarks by the Ukrainian general came a few hours before a much-anticipated visit by the leaders of Germany, France and Italy to Kyiv.
The Ukrainian government has been clamouring for help and more substantial weapons supplies as its officials said Russians currently have ten times the artillery in the battlefield in eastern Ukraine.
Separately, Ukraine’s defence minister admitted on Thursday that Kyiv could eventually use new weapons to reclaim Russia-occupied territory including Crimea.
“Crimea is a strategic objective for Ukraine because it’s Ukrainian territory,” he told CNN.
“But we will move step by step.”
Oleksii Reznikov remarks echo one of Vladimir Putin’s public aims in launching the invasion as he has claimed Ukraine has been plotting to recapture the Black Sea peninsula by force.
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Most of the international community still regard Crimea as occupied Ukrainian territory - Ukraine would be acting entirely within their rights if they took out the bridge.
Understandably Russia threatens some form of retaliation - but it is also clear their word is often far removed from reality - summarised as "they lie for effect". Their word is inconsequential.
Without a strategic step change, the war could continue for months or even years. The resolve to continue support and sanctions for Ukraine as winter approaches in Europe - cold weather, cost of living, fuel prices and gas supplies etc - will be tested.
Therefore pressurising Putin to come to the negotiating table with realistic expectations may be the preferred option. The alternative is a conflict extending well into 2023.
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The concern in my mind is that everyone is far too sanguine that we will avoid WW3.
It will require mature thought. Somewhere between "get your retaliation in first" and "don't risk upsetting Putin too much" is the path to de-escalation.
Getting the Russians to give up will be extremely difficult unless there is a major shift in attitude from them. I fear the only people who can end this are the Ukrainians, and if they decide they've had enough then it might only encourage further empire building.
I imagine the thinking on the NATO side has got as far as "Ukraine must not lose".
I hope there are some back channels to the Kremlin and that they are getting the right messages. Good thing Trump isn't still in charge. He doesn't look to me like a man who thinks he has anything to learn from anybody, or from history.
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...at least Boris has got one call right today; Kyiv is safer than Doncaster....
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It'll be later in the summer before it can judged if any/some of the weapons going to Ukr, especially the longer ranged weapons, can have an impact in this war.
I'm not sure they've the weapons (yet) to take out the bridge, but if they do it'll have a big impact on the crimea as will taking back control of the water supply.
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>It'll be later in the summer before it can judged if any/some of the
>weapons going to Ukr, especially the longer ranged weapons, can have an
>impact in this war.
Ukraine claim that the long range stuff will give them the clout to retake Kherson which is only about 40km, as the shell flies, from the Crimea bridge. They also reported their (claimed) equipment losses to date but did not give any idea of personnel numbers.
1300 infantry fighting vehicles.
400 tanks.
700 artillery systems.
Last edited by: Kevin on Sat 18 Jun 22 at 00:01
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The south appears to give the Ukrainians the best chance of regaining territory. Whether they'll choose to hit the bridge, when in range, remains to be seen.
They may well decide to attack from the sea, they have several drone fast attack boats.
Zelensky said they were taking several hundred casualties per day. I believe that the number included civilian casualties.
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Did anyone else notice the body language when the three stooges visited Ukraine yesterday? Poor old Iohannis must have felt like he was there as a referee.
>I hope there are some back channels to the Kremlin and that they are getting the right messages.
Ukraine sent a message to Putin this morning.
The Vasily Bekh support vessel, supposedly carrying munitions and reinforcements to Snake Island, was hit by Harpoon missiles and is reported to have sunk. It was one of the boats that Russia had strapped a TOR air defence system to the decks to try and protect against missile attack.
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Appears theres some reports that the Romanians and Bulgarians have each agreed to reopen a soviet era munitions factory to produce shells for Ukraine.
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>..Romanians and Bulgarians have each agreed to reopen a soviet era munitions factory..
Probably quicker to resurrect mothballed factories than wait for their three wealthiest neighbours to help.
www.bild.de/politik/inland/politik-inland/waffen-versprechen-an-die-ukraine-welchen-bruchteil-wir-in-wahrheit-liefern-80440302.bild.html
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I noticed you put up a few German links Kevin, out of idle curosity do you speak German?
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>..do you speak German?
It's rusty but get's better if I'm there for a few days.
Been going since I was a nipper. Dad served with No.2 MREU and Berlin Airlift so we used to go back for holidays and stay with friends. I then had a (company paid) apartment in Schloß Neuhaus when I worked for Nixdorf UK in 80's.
PS: If anyone doesn't understand German, Chrome translates most German web pages quite accurately.
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Who needs a navy when you have Harpoons.
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Sky News are damn slow aren't they?!
www.car4play.com/forum/post/index.htm?t=29829&m=647713&v=e
The hit was on Friday morning and confirmed on Saturday by the US who were really, really lucky and just happened to have intel assets in the area at the time.
Although it's been described as a 'tug' it's actually an engineering support ship. Over 1000t I'm told, and fitted with heavy lifting gear.
They've also hit two oil rigs in the Black Sea (100km from Odessa) that the Ruskies had appropriated and then installed radar and signals intel.
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Ukraine - Volume 4 - sooty123
