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With a land war possible in Ukraine, Its time to dust off "Red Storm Rising" by Tom Clancy. Ok the theatre is pushed more eastwards than the book, but the reasonings and build up are uncannily accurate.
Last edited by: VxFan on Sat 26 Feb 22 at 21:07
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www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60123328
I wonder how long Putin will keep the troops there, I suspect another week and say it's the end of joint exercise and move back.
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As the Budapest Memorandum en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances
is not worth the paper it’s written on, I suspect the Ukrainians are somewhat upset that they gave up the world’s third largest stockpile of nuclear weapons.
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A little part of me thinks that each side might like a 'little' fight to test out some of their multi-dollar weapons that have been developed over the years.... maybe find out who really does have the best advanced fighter or how their tanks hold up to the other sides anti-tank missiles...
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Also what's with the Foreign Secretary (someone called Liz Truss) coming on the radio and basically spilling the beans on ALL of where our troops are and what weapons we've sent over almost down to the exact location details..... I thought 'walls have ears'?
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>> sent over almost down to the exact location details..... I thought 'walls have ears'?
Ah! you say things, and you do things in a noisy and obvious manner, meanwhile, while eyes are diverted on the noisy & obvious things......
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>> Also what's with the Foreign Secretary (someone called Liz Truss) coming on the radio and
>> basically spilling the beans on ALL of where our troops are and what weapons we've
>> sent over almost down to the exact location details..... I thought 'walls have ears'?
>>
They are a political message to allies and foe alike, partly deterrence. Part of deterrence is letting people know you have capability to achieve an outcome.
Movement of forces are routinely made public, most of the time it's of little interest to the public though so tend not to notice.
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But surely it would be the one time the Govt could legitimately say nothing or 'that's a secret'... why not keep them guessing as a tactic.
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Our government is not operating normally right now.
Perhaps with the Falklands effect in mind the publicity is supposed to be a contribution to 'Operation Red Meat', a torrent of populist announcements designed to distract from the 'parties' and keep Johnson in office.
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>> Our government is not operating normally right now.
>>
>> Perhaps with the Falklands effect in mind the publicity is supposed to be a contribution
>> to 'Operation Red Meat', a torrent of populist announcements designed to distract from the 'parties'
>> and keep Johnson in office.
>>
I've seen that a few times by various commentators, i don't buy it on this occasion. The PM has hardly mentioned this situation, truss only recently , Wallace the only one really going public but then that's his job since this squarely in his role.
Where as news of birthday parties etc are on the front page near endlessly, i dont think anyone has forgotten about lockdown parties in favour of events further east.
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>> But surely it would be the one time the Govt could legitimately say nothing or
>> 'that's a secret'... why not keep them guessing as a tactic.
>>
Because, like i said, it's a message they want sent out to various countries for differing reasons. You don't get that impact if you do it in secret.
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The Falklands was (a) British, and (b) the last war in which UK forces clearly prevailed. Later conflicts - Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya - were political and strategic failures despite the efforts of those on the front line.
Ukraine - I suspect there is very limited public support for any direct involvement. They are not NATO members. Sanctions have never been proven to work effectively - and Germany doesn't want to buy in anyway.
So we have a war of words. Putin almost certainly believes that (a) direct NATO involvement is very unlikely (why start WW3 over a failing state) and (b) sanctions are of no concern (he may even welcome them as a demonstration of the lengths the wicked West will go)
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"Also what's with the Foreign Secretary (someone called Liz Truss) coming on the radio and basically spilling the beans on ALL of where our troops are and what weapons we've sent over almost down to the exact location details..... I thought 'walls have ears'?"
Misinformation. Remember when Hitler believed the invasion would arrive on the Pas de Calais and we arrived in Normandy instead.
I had LBC on in the background. J O'B was doing a character assassination on Boris 2 days ago when I switched him off and ****er me if he's not still on his monologue 2 days later.
Anyway they had some expert on who was saying the Putin had basically stolen 250 Billion from the country and laundered it through his Oligarchs who were positioned throughout Europe in such places as London and Paris and there was some agreement in place to somehow deal with all their assets. So there is a financial hold over Putin inspite the impression that he gives that he is untouchable.
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I rarely comment on politics here, but my threat would be to either intern or cancel Visas of Oligarcs - and freeze their assets in this country, so the big "businessmen " (Mafia Crooks) and Putin's associates cannot access their dirty money here - and there's lots of it.
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>>J O'B was doing a character assassination on Boris 2 days ago when I switched him off and ****er me if he's not still on his monologue 2 days later.
Tis the same with Mike Graham (whoever he is) I puts a record on instead:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=9F1n4QUN0tE
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"The Russian Army has deployed a new electronic warfare battalion in the Belgorod Region, close to the border with Ukraine, which will “reduce the time needed to obtain necessary information [about military movements],” it was revealed on Tuesday.
Announced by the Western Military District, one of Russia’s five Army administrative divisions, the new battalion is armed with multiple different vehicles designed for electronic warfare, such as the Borisoglebsk 2, designed to disrupt communications and GPS systems, and the Zhitel portable communications jamming station."
Dont rely on your sat nav in Europe this summer.
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Lots of big heavy aircraft transiting via Bangor Maine during darkness.
Not the usual visitors
The Big Ugly Fellas arrive in UK: US B-52 long-range bombers land in Britain
plus a U2
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10498635/The-Big-Ugly-Fellas-arrive-UK-B52-long-range-bombers-land-Britain-join-Nato-mission.html
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Well that makes the Chilterns a target. Should drive the property prices down :)
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>> Well that makes the Chilterns a target. Should drive the property prices down :)
Chilterns?
Fairford is close to the Cotswolds.
While it is possible these arrivals are associated with the problems around Ukraine such deployments are a regular (annual?) feature.
We live under the so called Daventry Corridor where military aircraft, usually at 10,000 feet, can cross the stream of civil aircraft from/to London's airports and those at Birmingham and East Midlands. While nothing like as common as Hercules and A400M transports B52s are not unusual.
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My son is a civilian contractor at a couple of military establishments. Much increased activity.
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>> Chilterns?
You dont know whats under the Chilterns? And of course the big ugly tower on top of it
Last edited by: VxFan on Fri 11 Feb 22 at 14:06
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Hands held up! My error, I know full well it is the Cotswolds, brain fade. Worrying, early in the morning.
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>>You dont know whats under the Chilterns?
No, should I?
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>> >>You dont know whats under the Chilterns?
>>
>> No, should I?
No, And I am not allowed to tell you. Less under it than used to be however.
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Less under it than used to
>> be however.
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Got rid of the moles then ?
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>> No, should I?
Some sort of command bunker near High Wycombe.
Remember some controversy in the eighties involving the National Trust.
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>> Remember some controversy in the eighties involving the National Trust.
RAF Daws Hill en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RAF_Daws_Hill
I visited a few times in the '80s as part of my work.
Last edited by: VxFan on Fri 11 Feb 22 at 14:05
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>> While it is possible these arrivals are associated with the problems around Ukraine such deployments
>> are a regular (annual?) feature.
>>
>>
Bit of both, easier to flex for things like this if they visit regularly. Which they do.
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Pedantic point. The name of the country is Ukraine not “The Ukraine”
OK carry on.
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If you want to be politically correct but "the Ukrainian Republic" was formerly used and names stick.
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And what about La France?
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For the period of Soviet rule from 1922 until 1991 the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic. It then reverted to its original name of Ukraine. .
Not sure it’s politically correct to use a country’s correct name.
Last edited by: CGNorwich on Fri 11 Feb 22 at 18:23
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>> And before 1922?
>>
Ukraine
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>> Pedantic point. The name of the country is Ukraine not “The Ukraine”
>>
>> OK carry on.
It'l be Russia soon, so enjoy your temporary pedantic pinnacle.
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Last night I was looking over flightradar and spotted a RAF Airbus fuel-tanker returning to BZZ from Estonia.
Not sure where our Typhoons are based?
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>> Last night I was looking over flightradar and spotted a RAF Airbus fuel-tanker returning to
>> BZZ from Estonia.
>>
>>
There's a battle group in estonia that is being reinforced this month, probably a trooping flight.
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Who needs armies when you've got Barry Manilow?
www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-60362529
Last edited by: smokie on Sun 13 Feb 22 at 09:19
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This pedant gets upset about the Wirral peninsular and folk calling it 'the Wirral'. I don't know why. I don't call it 'the london' or 'the manchester'. To me it's Wirral, or the Wirral peninsular.
I've never lived there.
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It's generally known as The Wirral in the North West as people are talking about an area of Merseyside rather than individual towns or villages.
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>> It's generally known as The Wirral in the North West as people are talking about
>> an area of Merseyside rather than individual towns or villages.
To my mind it's a geographical feature; a peninsula bounded by the Irish Sea and the rivers Mersey and Dee. That makes it The Wirral like The Isle of Harris or The Pennines...
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>> To my mind it's a geographical feature; a peninsula bounded by the Irish Sea and
>> the rivers Mersey and Dee. That makes it The Wirral like The Isle of Harris
>> or The Pennines...
Ah yes but, so is Salisbury Plain, but its not known as "The Salisbury plain"
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Strange how some places need 'the' infront to make sense and others seem strange with it.
The vagaries of English i guess.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Sat 12 Feb 22 at 09:21
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As far as countries” the” is normally only used when a country is comprised of a number of separate places like the United States of America or the Seychelles.
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Speaking of pedantry, it's "peninsula", not "peninsular". The former is a noun, the latter an adjective.
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“The” Ukraine is unpalatable to many Ukrainians due to the history of this form of the name. As such it has far deeper roots than a bit of pedantry.
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Somehow I doubt the Ukrainians worry too much about how the English speaking world names their country. In German it remains "die Ukräine".
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>> Somehow I doubt the Ukrainians worry too much about how the English speaking world names
>> their country. In German it remains "die Ukräine".
>>
It would appear some are at least
www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-18233844
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Interesting article. At the end of the day why would anyone want to refer to a country in a way other than it would prefer to be known.
It’s a bit like constantly calling someone Dave after he has made it clear he would like to be called David.
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>>
>> It’s a bit like constantly calling someone Dave after he has made it clear he
>> would like to be called David.......
...or Rodney...
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Yes a good article... surely some of comes down to how it 'sounds' in sentence, to me it still wouldn't sound right to say 'I'm going on holiday to Netherlands', would it?
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So do you refer to "Russia" or the "Russian Federation"?
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Russia as do most people I think
Indeed the second point of Article 1 of Russian Constitution says, “The names "Russian Federation" and "Russia" shall be equal”
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We’re being invaded by the Kuwaiti Airforce :-)
fr24.com/KAF3216/2ad36e5e
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Descending. I wonder where that's going. Could be looping into Brize.
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Brize it is.
B52 out of Fairford came over here earlier; usual FL100 down the Daventry Corridor.
Heard but not seen due heavy cloud.
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It may or may not be true - but it is a far from independent report.
The motives may be unclear - it could be true, it could be an attempt to initiate a wider confrontation with the Russians, or an effort to garner support for Ukraine from the west.
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>> I've read this in a few places now. Some shelling in Ukraine. Yesterday and/or day
>> before.
Its BAU, they have been lobbing shells /skirmishing on both sides since the incursion years ago.
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>> I've read this in a few places now.
You seem to be following events in The Ukraine with a close interest, smokie.
May I ask, any particular reason why?
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>> May I ask, any particular reason why?
HE invested in some cheap property deals in Donetsk
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Haha no, not interested in the Ukraine much at all tbh, except I quite like not being at war!! :-)
I've only put up one serious post about it (which I happened across this morning when looking at other, more interesting stuff) then followed up with a few more when that post was doubted.
I am tripping over quite a bit of info which either never reaches or takes a long time to hit mainstream news, esp in the Covid area, and that is because I am involved with a few fairly serious groups with some very clever people who research thoroughly, and that's come about as a result of some of my investments (see the link to wot Zero said there? :-) )
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Looks like the ruskies will kick off big time in the next 48 hours.
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I just came across this timeline. Shows some Ukrainians being evacuated to Russia if I'm reading it right (using translate obviously!).
dnr-news.com/
One entry is "At the Ukrainian exercises "Blizzard-2022" there was a spectacular collision of a tank and an IFV". Not that spectacular really but not something you see every day.
dnr-news.com/dnr/59538-na-ukrainskih-ucheniyah-metel-2022-proizoshlo-effektnoe-stolknovenie-tanka-i-bmp.html
I wasn't even researching Ukraine...
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I think to note is things like blood supplies at field hositals (and other hospitals) being ramped up. Fuel, food and ammo will be consumed on exercise, tend not to hold large stocks of blood supplies unless you think you might need them. Not an absolute given if they are moved an attack will happen, but they won't attack without them.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Fri 18 Feb 22 at 16:04
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Since Russia took the Crimea in 2014, Russian backed separatists in Donbas have routinely exchanged fire with Ukrainian troops. The media seem to paint the current shelling as something unusual - it is not.
I somewhat doubt that it is Ukraine would want to provoke the Russians - it is the Russians trying to create an excuse for invasion.
It is so blatant, I am not sure why they bother with the subterfuge. If they want to invade they know NATO will not respond militarily. Irrespective of the justification for invasion, it will make little or no difference to the western response - lots of noise and ineffectual sanctions.
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Just what the incumbent PM needs to fulfil his Churchillian fantasy, and be able to kick all of his previous/ongoing disasters into the long grass.
Other than Starmer's predecessor I can't think of anyone less suited to be in charge during a major military event.
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>> Other than Starmer's predecessor I can't think of anyone less suited to be in charge
>> during a major military event.
>>
Since it’s clear that neither the UK or any NATO forces will actually get involved militarily don’t suppose that it matters too much. Russia will act as it wishes as it did in Crimea whatever words are spouted by Johnson.
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I'm surprised and impressed Putin has kept it going this long.
I wonder how many more back to back exercises he can keep going.
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>> I wonder how many more back to back exercises he can keep going.
Guardian newsfeed says the the exercise in Belarus, due to end tomorrow, has been extended and may be a permanent Russian presence.
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My guess is he will attack after the Winter Olympics. I hope I am wrong.
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Nothing for him to gain by pulling back - presumably he was initially going to just annexe the Donbass but the ineffectual appeasement from the West makes me suspect he will take all of Ukraine probably fairly bloodlessly.
Then he'll be happy to have a wall against Nato and be in charge of a group of nations with puppet leaders.
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He gains nothing if he takes Ukraine. He gets a population to quell who hate him, and he gets a much beefed up NATO on the borders with Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. The Turks are Anti Russian again suddenly. In Short he's screwed up
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Perhaps but he'll be supported by China who are watching carefully before considering when to move on Taiwan.
Nato beefing up will happen regardless of what Putin does now.
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Nato has renewed purpose for sure. Left alone it would have died by a thousand self inflicted cuts.
As far as Taiwan goes, the yanks have a few LA class subs lurking around the place, they could cut a Chinese Navy invasion fleet to shreds from the blind side of the island with cruise missiles. IF they care to get involved
The IF is an unknown, deliberately kept unknown
It's poker
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My guess is that Putin wants a buffer between Russia and the west. That means no annexation of Ukraine, since the western border of an expanded Russia would then be with Poland. I think he wants in effect to partition Ukraine, establish a pro-Russian state in the east (where there are plenty of ethnic Russians) and then withdraw. The territory now called Ukraine has a history as a country only since the collapse of Communism. Before the Russian Revolution the eastern part belonged to the Tsarist empire and the west to Poland. After WW2 the borders were arbitrarily redrawn and Ukraine became part of the USSR.
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Not forgetting the borders with Hungary, Slovakia, and Romania.
A Hungarian former colleague of mine was actually born in Ukraine; he was given a Soviet name. He once told me his grandfather had lived in 3 countries and he never moved house. Nationality and borders in that region are not quite as closely correlated as they are here.
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>> My guess is that Putin wants a buffer between Russia and the west.
But why Ukraine? he has no buffer to Nato up north. Its camped on his doorstep. Why Ukraine? its very simple - the Russians are still obsessed about Hitler. They assume the Hun is going to come marching through Ukraine to the gates of Moscow.
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>> >> My guess is that Putin wants a buffer between Russia and the west.
>>
>> But why Ukraine? he has no buffer to Nato up north. Its camped on his
>> doorstep.
Take a look at a relief map. to the NW Russia is protected by difficult forested high ground. Ukraine is a natural corridor to the heartland of Russia. That the way invasions always come. The Swedes, the Polish- Lithuanians, the French and yes Hitler.
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"... the Russians are still obsessed about Hitler."
You may call it that. Perhaps more to the point, people in Eastern Europe have very long memories.
Stalin was initially humiliated by his failure to listen to military intelligence indicating Hitler's build-up to the German invasion of Russia - he simply did not believe it would happen. Operation Barbarossa started with the occupation of Ukraine, in which the Germans painted themselves as liberators, playing to the desire of at least some Ukrainians for independence. In practice, however, they took advantage of the opportunity to murder over 1m Jews.
In the ensuing conflict between Germany and Russia the statistics were staggering: at least 20m Russian personnel (civilian and military) were killed, the highest of any nation involved in WW2.
Putin and Russia simply do not trust the West. Since the collapse of communism, Russia and its spheres of influence have shrunk. A west-leaning regime in Poland and the reunification of Germany, and now the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO, have brought Western influence much closer.
A series of ineffectual leaders have done little to rectify the situation, from the Russian point of view. Putin is admired in Russia - probably not liked, but respected as a strong leader, in the tradition of the great Tsars and Stalin. Russians are almost conditioned to place strong leadership above any personal preferences. The image of the ruthless macho male leader is alive and well in Russia, as it has always been.
Last edited by: James Loveless on Sun 20 Feb 22 at 20:01
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Guardian newsfeed says the the exercise in Belarus, due to end tomorrow, has been extended
>> and may be a permanent Russian presence.
I'm sure their will, it's a reminder that Russia can strike from the North. Also helps bolster Belarus.
I read that 2/3 of combat troops in the Western Military District/European Russia are on Ukraine's frontier.
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Could Russia up the stakes with NATO by messing around over the Kaliningrad exclave?
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Kaliningrad? would guess they want to leave that as well alone as possible
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>> Kaliningrad? would guess they want to leave that as well alone as possible
Could they claim their rights of access etc were being interfered with?
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Until just a couple of decades ago Russia had a "buffer" separating them from Western Europe and NATO - Poland, Hungary, East Germany, Lithuania Bulgaria, etc. It now has just Belarus.
Ukraine is is both large and neither NATO/EU or the Russian bloc. It has significant mineral wealth and food production capacity. Ukraine joining NATO/EU is a major threat.
Putin would like to control Ukraine. For folk of his generation the Iron Curtain and Russian superpower status were a time of power now eroded.
He knows the West will not put troops on the ground in Ukraine. I suspect that the Ukraine defence capability is far weaker than they want to admit. Russia can occupy any time it chooses.
There is a cost in taking Ukraine by force - but we should not expect of Russia the same concerns over loss of life and compromised international relations Western democracies would tolerate.
US/UK and other threats of sanctions - based on past experience sanctions are ineffectual at best - not a great threat.
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>> >> Kaliningrad? would guess they want to leave that as well alone as possible
>>
>> Could they claim their rights of access etc were being interfered with?
Its not, tho they could, but its deep enough into Nato Territory to be a full missile chucking WW3 scenario and both sides know it.
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>> US/UK and other threats of sanctions - based on past experience sanctions
>> are ineffectual at best - not a great threat.
Nothing that a teeny-tiny little accidental friendly-fire incident on Nordstream 2 won't fix. If I were the USA I'd already have it rigged to go in order to prevent Germany capitulating to Putin over sanctions.
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Germany is reliant on Russia for a significant part of gas, oil and coal supplies.
Alternative sources can be developed in time, but infrastructure would not be a quick fix. Prices in the short term would undoubtedly increase in Germany and may impact on world market prices.
The Germans will be reluctant to back sanctions on Russia should they invade Ukraine. Putin may form the view that:
- Germany will anyway continue to buy Russian energy, or
- he will use withdrawal of supply as a tool to create division within NATO
Either is a win for Russia.
We should not assume that the Russians think like politicians in a largely democratic West, NATO and EU. They have a very different history and are effectively a one party state, with a strong leader, whose decree is all but absolute. Dissent and opposition internally is not an option.
99% of the time a pacifist entering a boxing ring with a committed, trained, violent thug is likely to lose the argument , no matter how principled and morally right their arguments.
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I clearly don't understand it but the most obvious compromise is that Russia ends up with the bits of Ukraine with the unruly separatists in - Donetsk and Luhan'sk?
- Ukraine no longer has a nascent civil war going on
- The rest of Ukraine remains independent, maybe even joins NATO
- NATO doesn't get into a proxy war with Russia
- Putin has something to swagger about.
- the value of my pension fund recovers.
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Bit a Ukrainian no no that idea.
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Well they aren't going to get off scot free are they?
How long will it take Putin to manufacture a reason to send in troops to "protect" the Russian population? And what will NATO do about it?
The Ukrainians will be stuffed at that point. They either rollover or have a full scale war, which ends with Russia "pacifying" the entire country while the world tuts. Except the Chinese of course who will note proceedings with interest.
I admit I haven't spent many minutes thinking that through, but that's my straw man.
It's possible that Putin is playing a longer game, what I can't imagine - Russia clearly doesn't see things the way we might.
I doubt that Johnson is for doing much apart from huffing and puffing.
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Didn't take very long.
Fast-track rUkraine into NATO and Iron Curtain 2.0 Russia/Belarus.
Russia's weakest area is it's relatively small economy.
Last edited by: Lygonos on Mon 21 Feb 22 at 22:31
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>> Didn't take very long.
>>
>> Fast-track rUkraine into NATO and Iron Curtain 2.0 Russia/Belarus.
>>
>>
I don't think they can join, unless they change the membership rules.
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>> I don't think they can join, unless they change the membership rules.
Specifically A country can not join if it has border disputes.
Last edited by: VxFan on Tue 22 Feb 22 at 02:56
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>> I clearly don't understand it but the most obvious compromise is that Russia ends up
>> with the bits of Ukraine with the unruly separatists in - Donetsk and Luhan'sk?
Salami tactics
www.youtube.com/watch?v=o861Ka9TtT4
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It’s ok. Liz Truss is announcing sanctions against the Russians tomorrow.
That will have then quivering in their boots.
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>> It’s ok. Liz Truss is announcing sanctions against the Russians tomorrow.
>> That will have then quivering in their boots.
>>
What do you think this government or any other uk government should do?
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Really, there's no need to worry at all. As well as Truss there is a fact finding group from Plaid Cymru helping out !
Ted
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Taking the pragmatic viewpoint.
Unless the residents of Ukraine fight a Russian invasion, what difference will it make to their day to day lives?
Yes, they can resist a Russian invasion and suffer untold grief, hardship and misery, but to what end? If Ukraine simply lets the Russians come back in again, so what? They were there before, weren't they? As part of the USSR? Will it really make a massive difference to their every day lives?
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>> Unless the residents of Ukraine fight a Russian invasion, what difference will it make to
>> their day to day lives?
>>
>> Yes, they can resist a Russian invasion and suffer untold grief, hardship and misery, but
>> to what end? If Ukraine simply lets the Russians come back in again, so what?
>> They were there before, weren't they? As part of the USSR? Will it really make
>> a massive difference to their every day lives?
WTF do you think they broke away from the soviet union n the first place? A soviet union that in many ways was better when they broke away than it is now?
Would we have been better - in our day to day lives - under Hitler?
Last edited by: Zero on Tue 22 Feb 22 at 08:26
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You’d still be driving a German car...
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>> You’d still be driving a German car...
And i guess I could drive it at 155mph legally, and the trains would run on time, I quite like Wurst i guess,
I know - I hate sauerkraut
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It’s just a quarrel in a far away country, between people of whom we know nothing.
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>> It’s just a quarrel in a far away country, between people of whom we know
>> nothing.
Indeed,
But what happens when it becomes a quarrel in those far away countries of Poland, Slovakia, Hungary of whom we know nothing?
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>> It’s just a quarrel in a far away country, between people of whom we know
>> nothing.
>>
Said Neville Chamberlain
"In this broadcast, Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain speaks about his efforts to obtain a peaceful solution to the Sudeten dispute, which he refers to as a "quarrel in a far away country, between people of whom we know nothing".
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>> It’s just a quarrel in a far away country, between people of whom we know
>> nothing.
You know its going to ratchet your living costs up more, and knock a bigger hole in your pension fund. Thats not very far away.
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This is interesting
Putins version of history
en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67828
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I see in the PM's statement it mentioned increased gas licences in the uk. I wonder if they'll go ahead with the gas exploration in Lancashire?
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>> I see in the PM's statement it mentioned increased gas licences in the uk. I
>> wonder if they'll go ahead with the gas exploration in Lancashire?
Not if its fracking, political suicide. It probably refers to some North Sea licences that were mothballed by the gov.
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I think a cold spring, sky high prices and the political winds may well change.
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Nope Fracking is a no no at any level and any time - In the public mind fracking = earthquake.
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I suppose we'll see, even though it's taking place in the uk (as far as i can remember) it seems there's little public understanding.
Seems to make sense to me rather than import it. Little is imported from Russia but while we still need gas, better to use it from the UK. Cv19 showed us all about shorter supply lines.
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>> I suppose we'll see, even though it's taking place in the uk (as far as
>> i can remember) it seems there's little public understanding.
>>
>> Seems to make sense to me rather than import it.
There have been test drillings. I've driven past one on the outskirts of Blackpool. Another was in SE England. There were earth tremors associated with the Blackpool drillings.
Some of the USA sites have led to allegations of chemicals used as part of the fracking process turning up in groundwater.
Given the UK is physically small and many sites containing potentially frackable reserves are heavily populated neither of those risks can be tolerated.
In other words it's politically unacceptable because politicians have understood the public won't wear it. Think HS2 or Insulate Britain protests * 100. Even Patel's legislation against protest won't stop mass civil disobedience.
There are still extractable reserves on the UK continental shelf or deeper waters. While Russian gas was cheap and the market was king then absent government action in the name of securing a strategic supply they went unexploited.
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I can't say I've researched it to the nth degree, but from what I've read about the ones in Lancs the earthquakes were very small in strength and rare. No more than the small ones that happening normally.
I believe there's fracking been going on for some years in Dorset I believe, along with Sussex and possible Surrey.
I'm not sure on the practical reserves left in the N Sea, they seem to be capping them and dismantling the rigs there at a increasing rate. Is there enough to make a difference left under the North Sea ?
I'm not sure about the last bit we don't import much at all from Russia, I believe it's Dutch/Norwegian supplies that are the main two countries that we import from.
Like I said though, no one knows public opinion in the future. Who knows after a few cold winters. Are there any opinion polls on this?
As for protests, maybe maybe not. I remember the stop the war one was supposed to be the biggest ever in the UK, what did that do? Nothing.
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>> I can't say I've researched it to the nth degree, but from what I've read
>> about the ones in Lancs the earthquakes were very small in strength and rare. No
>> more than the small ones that happening normally.
They were rare until fracking started. They have been geologically linked to fracking, and they were larger than natural ones (the richter scale is a very very misleading measurement)
>> I believe there's fracking been going on for some years in Dorset I believe, along
>> with Sussex and possible Surrey.
Nope not fracking - Oil drilling - Long established productive oil fields in Dorset, Hampshire/Surrey border and a known but as yet unexploited field on the edge of the Surrey hills.
>> I'm not sure on the practical reserves left in the N Sea, they seem to
>> be capping them and dismantling the rigs there at a increasing rate. Is there enough
>> to make a difference left under the North Sea ?
Existing fields are becoming more expensive to exploit, 4 billion barrels left, 16 billion estimated in as yet exploited areas. Its all a matter of cost per barrel.
>> Like I said though, no one knows public opinion in the future. Who knows after
>> a few cold winters. Are there any opinion polls on this?
Fracking? yes there were. It was massively anti fracking.
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>> I'm not sure about the last bit we don't import much at all from Russia,
>> I believe it's Dutch/Norwegian supplies that are the main two countries that we import from.
Russian gas has kept market prices low until now. It's geography and North Sea infrastructure that mean our physical supplies come from Norway/Netherlands.
IIRC there are different types of fracking (hydraulic fracturing) and that it's a form introduced in the current century that has caused controversy.
I'm not talking 'Stop the War' or the peaceful marches for a second referendum I went on - all full of the chattering classes. I mean large scale civil disobedience and physical action on fracking sites.
The concerns promoting fracking were their own worst enemies with a complete failure of disclosure. Even if for purely commercial reasons, it made them look as though they had something to hide.
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I thought it was an interesting point about self sustainance in gas, something that is right at the forefront of the news. I'm not buying up shares in them, but equally I'm not so set against it as others.
How do we get through the next few years, we can't escape we need a fair bit of gas, we use it homes and it's the one of the biggest generators of electricity.
We don't really want to be buying it from Russia, there's not many large chucks of capacity spare around the world to push prices down. Our own supplies offshore are hard to find/get to and therefore expensive and we won't use/exploit onshore supplies. High prices cause difficulty for many, not to mention political difficulties.
Perhaps we just muddle through, perhaps prices will dip down and will remain low until we use far far less of it or perhaps not.
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Reflecting on the run up to WW2 for insights into the current Ukraine issue is truly pointless.
80-90 years ago:
- Great Britain still had an empire and were world class politically and industrially
- the internet, TV, EU, NATO didn't exist
- China was a rural backwater
Everything has changed.
Watching Putin's statement concerned me - 5-10 years ago he could express ideas with clarity, now he rambles and may be suffering form early stage dementia.
But he still evidently has control and wants to leave his mark on history by being the leader who increased Russian influence internationally rather than supervised its decline.
As I have noted before, the West will not intervene with troops on the ground, and the sanctions being applied are thus far fairly ineffectual. Putin and his supporters will have factored this in over the last few months and modified their position accordingly.
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I read this, Its as good a summary of "why" that I have seen
Why is Russia invading Ukraine?
The reason Russia would want to invade Ukraine is to deposed the pro Western Ukrainian president and install a pro Moscow dictator. This is not because Moscow has any particular love for the Ukrainian people; the Russians have never seen the ukrainians as equal. It is because in the eyes of Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin leadership, Ukraine is nothing more than a protective wall against what it sees as NATO encroachment further East into former Soviet territory. The bigger question is why Putin and the Russian leadership be so concerned about having NATO next door? To answer that question we must go back to the early years of world War II
On June 22nd 1941, Adolf Hitler's military launched a surprise attack into the Soviet Union. The offensive was so quick and so sudden that the Soviet military were completely caught off guard. Even though the Soviet Union did have a massive army that was equipped enough to counter the German assault, years of political repression and purges within the military caused a catastrophically slow response from Moscow. The Nazi invasion into what was then Soviet Russia was seen as a major disgrace and traumatic experience for both the Russian people and the military. Millions of Soviets died. They would never want that to happen again. After the second world war ended Stalin made sure that such an attack would never take place by installing pro-soviet regimes all throughout conquered Eastern Europe. As far as East Germany. By 1963, the Soviet government doubled their security with the establishment of the Berlin Wall. From 1963 all the way until the walls fall in 1989, the Soviet government in Moscow was obsessed with the idea of being attacked and literally went bankrupt with defense spending. With the fall of the Berlin wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union two years later in 1991, it was believed that the new Russian Federation would have nothing to fear an attack from the West. There was even some talk that NATO promised it would never expand East. It was a lie.
In 1993, it looked as though the United States and the Russian Federation were on the path to economic and political friendship. Or so it seemed. The early 90s were a terrible time for the former USSR, most notably for the Russian Federation. In October of that very year, a second Russian Civil War was barely avoided after Yeltsin ordered his tanks to shell the besieged Russian White House. The following year in the northern caucuses region, the Republic of Chechnya threatened to break away. Yeltsin was once again forced to send in the army to stop further fragmentation of the already weak Russian Federation. It was a catastrophe which cost the lives of thousands of Russian soldiers. Around the same time, many former Soviet republics, as well as satellite states, were beginning to process of being admitted into NATO. Nobody cared about Russia's opinion on the matter. The old Cold War fears of being attacked by the West came back with a vengeance. Then on the 25th of January 1995, that distrust almost proved fatal.
On the evening of January 25th 1995, a US-Norwegian sounding rocket lifted off to study the Northern lights. All the countries around the launch area were informed including the Russian Federation. The message never made it to the Russian defense agency. Russian radar operators near Moscow picked up the rocket on their scopes. Before long they concluded that the United States had just launched a surprise EMP attack from a submarine off the coast of Norway. The entire Russian military was put on high alert and the message reached then president Boris Yeltsin. Without even bothering to phone President Clinton about the matter, Yeltsin and two of his senior commanders were given the nuclear briefcase. They opened and activated them. In accordance to Russian doctrine, Boris Yeltsin had less than 6 minutes to order a retaliatory strike against the United States and Western Europe. But Yeltsin, who thankfully wasn't drunk at the time, refused and waited. After the rocket was determined to be harmless the nuclear briefcases were deactivated and closed. The terrifying crisis was over, but the fear of Western attack did not go away. It would never go away and continue with Yeltsin's successor Vladimir Putin.
Vladimir Putin came to power in 1999. He inherited a country that had barely stayed together the previous decade. He also inherited a regime that was gripped with fear against Western aggression. Putin, a creature of the Soviet system, and former KGB agent, also holds a deep distrust of the West. That is why his administration is one of stamping out any and all enemies who so much as flirt with the West and it's ideals. It cannot be denied that Vladimir Putin is a great admirer of absolute power. He has been able to justify his autocracy under the veil of national defense against their old adversaries (NATO and the United States). In 2008, the first former Soviet Republic not under NATO jurisdiction to be attacked was Georgia. It was under the very same pre-text “The current Georgian regime was a threat to Russian interests and security. Therefore the military had to go in and install a friendly regime".
Some might argue that the Russian-Ukrainian War started in 2014. The current head of the Ukrainian government began to seriously consider joining NATO in an attempt to save itself from Russian dominance. Back in Moscow, there was panic. Ukraine is one of the largest former Soviet republics located next door to the Russian Federation. If you crane joined NATO not only would the former Soviet Republic have a guarantee of protection from the West, it also meant that NATO forces could be stationed within Ukraine itself right behind the fence of Russia. That was totally unacceptable for Putin. So he decided to send agent provocateurs and paid militias to destabilize eastern Ukraine. Soon after a so-called rebellion erupted in Donansk and Oblast. Violence errupted as Ukrainian forces went in to crush the so-called rebellion. Putin on the other hand made sure that the rebels were well supplied and well manned with plenty Russian volunteers and pro Russian extremists. A full-blown Civil War was well underway and the Ukrainian loyalists fought the rebels for many years in a stalemate. So dangerous was the violence that on the very first year of the Civil War Russian backed rebels shot down a civilian airliner with a Russian supplied surface-to-air missile system. Putin never acknowledged or apologized for that crime against humanity.
The first year of the Ukrainian Civil War saw the Russians invade and annex the island of Crimea. Putin claimed that the population of the island voted for Russian annexation. In reality the so-called election only went in Putin's favor thanks to stuffed ballot boxes and an invading army. A small portion of eastern Ukraine declared its independence and allegiance to Moscow. But the fighting didn't stop. It went on and continued to this very day. This is where it gets more complicated. The annexation of Crimea in the seizure of a small fraction of land was a small victory for Putin in 2014, but as the years dragged on and Russian volunteers began dying with little territorial gain, there were serious doubts as to Putin's intervention in Ukraine. It was just last year that thousands of young Russians began protesting all over the country against Putin's tyranny and his recklessness in handling the Ukrainian affair. As I stated earlier, Russians were dying in Ukraine and no new territory had been added. Whatever chances Russia had to incorporate Ukraine peacefully we're all but dead. Now Ukraine really considered joining NATO. The United States under President Biden, an enemy of Vladimir Putin, made it clear that Russia could not have its way and demand NATO not include other former Soviet republics. Putin once again was forced into a corner in which he now had two choices. He could continue to support a redundant rebellion and lose the rest of Ukraine entirely to NATO, or he could play his most dangerous card which is send in the army and conquer Ukraine entirely risking the ignition of a third world war with the West. Both moves have greater risks than results, but Putin is not a man who cares about the cost of Russian lives if it means his power base is safe. The sad thing is many young Russians don't want to follow him into the pits of hell. Unfortunately there is nothing they can do but watch and wait like the rest of the world.
A small quote from someone who commentates on matters chinese.
Its unfortunate, because of geography it a country that cant avoid a bear hug.
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Looks like it's started, widely reported that the Russians have launched air strikes and troops are crossing into Ukraine from the Belarus.
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>> Looks like it's started, widely reported that the Russians have launched air strikes and troops
>> are crossing into Ukraine from the Belarus.
Listened to the World Service and then Radio 4 since 04:00 GMT.
No mention there of Belarus. Most talk is of Donbas and possibly amphibious landings in Black Sea - Odessa? Also drone or missile attacks on military infrastructure including the Ukrainian capital's* military airport.
*Nick Robinson explained on Today that we now pronounce it as Keev which is Ukrainian. Key-ev is a Russian version.
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Thu 24 Feb 22 at 06:37
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Yes people in the capital appear to be heading out of the city or to shelter in the metro system.
Re Belarus, I'd seen it mentioned from one of the better commentators that Ukrainian brigade is coming under very heavy artillery fire from Russian troops moving out of Belarus.
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>> *Nick Robinson explained on Today that we now pronounce it as Keev which is Ukrainian.
>> Key-ev is a Russian version.
Key-ev it still is then
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So the Wests intelligence was right then - After the winter games had finished.
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Trump on Ukraine
The 2020 Election Was Stolen and Immigrants Are Ruining America
Fox News decided that a deadly assault and looming humanitarian crisis was the perfect time to bring on an angry man who lies a lot
www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-blames-biden-administration-rigged-election-for-putin-ukraine-attack-1312005/
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And here we have a floundering floppy-haired idiot in charge, devoid of statemanship when the crap hits the fan.
Starmer looks like he can handle himself so suspect Tories will be blootered in the May elections.
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Even Eunice couldn't blow Starmer of his fence and so far he hasn't had the guts to 'handle' the dozen MPs in his own party blaming NATO for the invasion. He's as bad as Bojo.
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There must be people inside Russia, both in the political and military arena who are as alarmed at the behaviour of Putin as much as everyone else is. Perhaps the best hope is that Russia's equivalent of "The men in grey suits" will decide enough is enough. He seems to be acting increasingly as a lone maveric and surly his own people realise that an escalation into a world wide conflict will have no winners and huge losers.
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The men in grey suits are for the most part now in prison overalls.
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Those who opposed Putin are in prison. I'm talking about those closest to him, without whom he could not operate. It is often those people who spell the end for an increasingly erratic dictator.
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>>Even Eunice couldn't blow Starmer of his fence and so far he hasn't had the guts to 'handle' the dozen MPs in his >>own party blaming NATO for the invasion. He's as bad as Bojo.
...that aged well... :--s
Last edited by: tyrednemotional on Thu 24 Feb 22 at 22:55
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This has probably gone a long way to saving Boris’ job.
Boris will see war as a fair sacrifice.
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>> This has probably gone a long way to saving Boris’ job.
No he needs to win. He hasn't and wont and his handling has been seen as pathetic
>> Boris will see war as a fair sacrifice.
Boris will be seen as the sacrifice.
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I know the Russians don't see things the way we do but they can't really believe Russia is at risk from NATO - were that the case then Russia would just have given NATO the perfect excuse to do whatever it is that Putin claims he needs to defend Russia from.
It seems Russia is just not a civilised country, if it ever was.
I hated hearing Johnson posturing today. The time to talk about Europe reducing reliance on Russian oil and gas was when it was first apparent that Putin was mad, bad and dangerous which was years ago, even before it dawned generally that Johnson is a compulsive liar.
What has happened is a disaster and I can't think of an appropriate response, although distancing the Conservative party from the Russian Mafia and its money would be a start.
The ironically named James Cleverly included arming Ukraine in his list of remedies this morning. Are they serious?
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Putin is 69 years old. Born at a time when the memory of WW2 and the death of an estimated 27m Russians was still dominant.
He grew up during the cold war, an era of mutually assured destruction. By 1991 he was a Lieutenant Colonel in the KGB, the year in which the break up of the USSR got underway.
That he is wary of the motives of NATO and the EU should be no surprise - he has no reason to trust the West.
The West has been very aware of Ukrainian instability since at least the 2014 invasion of Crimea, and arguably since its formation in 1991. The civil war between the separatists and Ukraine has apparently killed ~14000 since 2014, so hardly a trivial easily missed sideshow.
Rather than express surprise at Putin's actions, we should question why any conflict remained unresolved since at least 2014, particularly as the Minsk agreement clearly wasn't working.
This is not written to condone the actions of Putin, but a reflection of the inadequacy of the West and UN in failing to resolve problems long before war intervened.
The threat of sanctions is equally inadequate - Putin must have considered and discounted the consequences before he took the decision to invade.
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>> The threat of sanctions is equally inadequate - Putin must have considered and discounted the
>> consequences before he took the decision to invade.
>>
If you are worth an estimated £100bn and effectively control Russia, you are probably the richest person in the world, i.e. if you want that private jet you just order Tupolev to build one for you gratis. Sanctions aren’t going to hurt too much, if at all.
I and my colleagues have just spent the day reviewing my client’s transactions to spot trading with Russia, the new territories in Ukraine and Crimea as new sanction rules come or are about to come in to play.
Last edited by: zippy on Thu 24 Feb 22 at 17:17
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He's 6 months older than me. The Russians might be more steeped in this stuff than we are but I didn't grow up obsessed by the war and although we might have played at being 'English and Germans" as kids it hasn't dominated my thoughts since then. The man isn't an idiot as far as I can guess.
Clearly he thinks Ukraine is really part of Greater Russia. That much is historical, and within his adult lifetime.
He might have no reason to trust the West but why would he think Russia is at risk from attack? He implies he does but there is no logic to it. Russia has the nukes, we know they have the nukes, and they know we know they have the nukes.
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He might have no reason to trust the West but why would he think Russia
>> is at risk from attack? He implies he does but there is no logic to
>> it. Russia has the nukes, we know they have the nukes, and they know we
>> know they have the nukes.
It's a cultural thing. If countries on Russia's border aren't fully aligned or a puppet state then they are a threat and risk of invasion. The baltic states, along with Poland, are no doubt feeling nervous right now.
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>> It's a cultural thing. If countries on Russia's border aren't fully aligned or a puppet
>> state then they are a threat and risk of invasion. The baltic states, along with
>> Poland, are no doubt feeling nervous right now.
>>
Isn’t that recursive? They make Ukraine part of Russia then Poland, being part of NATO becomes a threat on the border that needs resolution etc.
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I've no doubt VP would feel more comfortable with a serious of clients states to act as a buffer. He already demanded that nato troops are removed from all states that joined after the end of the cold war.
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"He might have no reason to trust the West but why would he think Russia is at risk from attack?"
I'm not sure he does - at least as far as a military attack is concerned. But let's remind ourselves of what has changed since the late 1980s. Poland and Hungary ditched communism in 1989. Eastern Germany, a hard-line exponent of communism and where Putin once served, was absorbed into democratic Western Germany in 1990. A glance at the map will show the huge reduction in the size of the sphere of Russian influence.
Communism collapsed in Russia in 1991. The rot, as you might you wish to call it if you were an old-school Russian, spread from the West. Russia became a craven and wretched country under ineffectual leaders (remember Yeltsin?).
The fact that Ukraine, right on Russia's doorstep, started to look towards NATO, was too much. And Russia has plenty of sympathisers in Ukraine, thanks to the mess created at the end of WW2.
As has been said above, Putin wants to prove himself as a tough leader and to demonstrate Russia is back.
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>>Russia became a craven and wretched country under ineffectual leaders (remember Yeltsin?)
It had been a fairly wretched country anyway which was arguably why Communism collapsed. It had failed. Prior to 1991 the consensus was that the USSR had been spending 25% of GDP on 'defence'. When the dust settled, it looked as it had been nearer 75%.
The control economy was an utter failure in terms of productivity and living standards. There was a wonderful story in a documentary I saw after 1991, about a former Russian leader, I don't remember which one, touring a furniture factory. The leader asked why, when so many workers lived in compact apartments, the sofas they made were so large. The manager of the factory, without a hint of embarrassment, proudly described how their resourcefulness had enabled them to exceed their targets under the five year plan for converting a specified quantity of timber into furniture by making the sofas as large and heavy as possible.
The Soviet Union was hugely uncompetitive when exposed to global markets. That the state assets were sold for a fraction of their value to cronies ensured that the economy remained a wreck It had been propped up for years by oil and gas reserves but when oil prices crashed after 1985 there was no hiding place. Real GDP per capita in 1991 was about 30% that of the US, and bottomed around 2000 below 20%. Since then as Russia it has recovered somewhat but relatively it is not much better now than it was at the end of the Communist era.
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The Ukraine, - sooty123
