To see the impact of the vaccine one could simply compare the speed of decline in cases, hospitalisations and deaths from the first lockdown in March 2020 to the current lockdown.
The first lockdown was far deeper with almost no activity outside essential services. Simple observation showed roads almost empty, public transport volumes reduced by 80%+ etc.
This lockdown has seen many continuing to work normally. Even reopening schools only stalled the reduction in infections for a couple of weeks until it continued to decline. Note that the new variants are far more virulent and this needs to be factored in to any analysis.
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