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Free trade of views here.
Last edited by: VxFan on Sat 15 Sep 18 at 21:32
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"It would be interesting to hear an opinion."
I was asked a question in the previous thread which I will answer when I return. I am about to set off for a few days break in a primitive, signal-less part of the world - deepest, darkest Norfolk.
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www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45392105
So this is going well. Still, we've got loads of time to sort it out...
Oh, no, wait...………..
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"It also officially ends the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice in the UK, but the ECJ would continue to be "the interpreter of EU rules" that the UK has agreed to stick to."
And the sea begins to wash over yet another line in the sand....
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The human skidmark, formerly known as Boris Johnson, is scrabbling to show how it's not Brexit, but HMG's version of Brexit that is the problem.
Pity his mother didn't swallow him at birth.
Winston Churchill wannabe?
LMFAO :-)
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>>If it continued on the same path, Mr Johnson added, the government would "throw away most of the advantages of Brexit".
The advantages that he is unable to describe and that Farage says do not exist. Is that what he means, those advantages?
I would suggest that those Leavers who feel that BEANO would not satisfy them need to mobilise and start pushing their politicians. Because right now that's beginning to look like the best that they'll get.
For me, I always thought though people were correct in their criticism of what the EU was becoming, we should have stayed and fixed it from within. At the very least, inside we would have the power and influence to change it. And it needed [needs] changing.
The problem with BEANO is that, whilst mostly inevitable, it removes any chance of us influencing the inner workings of the EU but still leaves us to suffer from them.
I'm reasonably sure that in the short term BEANO is better for the UK than a 'hard exit', but in the long term I am not so sure. It may be just a band aid with the bucket kicked further down the corridor.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Mon 3 Sep 18 at 12:30
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Brexit Existing As Name Only
Term was coined soon after the vote to describe the situation as described above: Not in the EU, but subject to its diktats without being in a position to influence them.
The EU is far from fab but we've already shown an ability to get opt-outs, rebates, and ultimately prevent an increase in funding.
At least we can work out our own international trade agreements superior to those organised by a Bloc with 400 million citizens.
Ho ho ho.
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At leat one Brexiter has come up with a viable solution for the economy post Brexit.
inews.co.uk/news/brexit/uk-export-naan-bread-india-after-brexit/
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Wow that's me sold on Brexit!
Oh hang on we did while still part of the EU.
Carry on.
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It's getting awfully tiring referring to Boris Johnson as Former Foreign Secretary ... from now on, I propose that we all just refer to him as Boris Johnson FFS!
Not my joke, but if you enjoyed that...…
www.thepoke.co.uk/2018/09/07/boris-johnson-alleged-marriage-problems/
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When the chaos that is BREXIT began, lots of companies started planning their business around this. The incentive being that they needed or wanted to remain part of the EU, for various reasons, and leaving the UK was the way to assure that. Even the ones that decided not to leave, have begun changing the balance and structure of their investment. Including stuff that was going to be built and now perhaps will not be.
If BREXIT were to be cancelled tomorrow. These companies would have no incentive to change their new plans. They would not suddenly think "oh that's alright, we won't bother then, we'll stay".
Depending on the type of company and its ownership, they run on 5 - 20 year business strategies. Disruption in the near term is a nightmare for them.
Many things have changed about the UK political and economic situation, and many of them will not be reversed whatever happens. And worse, and perhaps more significant, is that perception has changed.
Consider it was your own money and you had to invest it in a new factory, plant or other business tomorrow. Would you really spend it in the UK?
If BREXIT goes ahead? Would you do it then?
If BREXIT is cancelled, would you then?
If BEANO is the final situation, would you then?
And if BREXIT goes ahead, if your business is European, why would you stay?
For any of the companies to come back, existing ones to stay or new ones to arrive, that will require, as a minimum, incentives. And big incentives at that. And incentives cost the country a great deal of money.
It will also take certainty. So that's the UK screwed. Certainly for 5 years or so.
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Yup our business credibility is in tatters. In or out of Europe. So we might as differentiate and be out, really out, not pretend out, that the worse credibility option going forward
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>>So we might as differentiate and be out, really out, not pretend out,
From a credibility point of view I don't think there is much difference between out and pretend out.
But there are many practical issues which *for us* are much better in the pretend out scenario.
And without doubt the most significant negative of being out is that nobody seems to have the first idea about how to make it work.
I see that the absolute line in the sand of no ECJ jurisdiction has started to fade and now it is agreed that the ECJ will oversee and arbitrate the arrangements and agreements of which we are part. No doubt if you are clever you can see how that is different to jurisdiction. I cannot.
But surely that is pretend out, not actually out?
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Is this project fear or reality? They already assemble some cars in Slovakia - wonder what the capacity is over there.
You could keep design in the UK but make the cars elsewhere. Same goes for say Bentley which already assemble some of their cars in Germany.
Most buyers of these vehicles probably wouldn't care where they were put together.
www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/11/brexit-tens-of-thousands-of-jobs-at-risk-jaguar-land-rover-boss-tells-pm
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>> Is this project fear or reality? They already assemble some cars in Slovakia - wonder
>> what the capacity is over there.
Some parts for a components manufacturer I work with come from the Czech Republic, they get more parts added here to make the next module, the are then sent to France to have something else fitted, then back to the UK for painting then to Germany for assembly.
The manufacturer is worried that they will be cut out of the loop.
Last edited by: VxFan on Wed 12 Sep 18 at 01:59
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If there is no freedom of movement for goods then you and I know this manufacturer will be out of the loop. It's never going to work. They might as well relocate now.
But to get freedom of movement of goods we need freedom of movement for services and people and money too. Unless the EU suddenly go back on the principles behind the EU.
So yes this manufacturer is potentially doomed. Which from a personal perspective is one less customer. Too many losses and your business will suffer too.
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>>You could keep design in the UK but make the cars elsewhere.
I think you forget that Brexit will make British manufacturing great again. Though I am not sure about the use of the word "again".
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But JLR has time to ship the production lines to Slovakia so they should be okay. They've got until March 29th 2019. Should be enough time.
Seriously though, JRM was saying JLR do well exporting to countries outside the UK. He's right. But he doesn't seem to get that they rely on components, sub-assemblies, etc. from within the UK.
Most JLR products are automatics. Their gearbox manufacturer of choice is ZF. So German. So without a steady flow of gearboxes they are stuffed.
Last edited by: VxFan on Wed 12 Sep 18 at 02:01
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Does anybody really and truly believe that anything other than BEANO will be a workable scenario?
It appears to me that *ALL* the politicians know that we're screwed, and so are jockeying for future position in the post-apocalyptic world.
Years ago I saw a film, the premise of which was that Westminster was destroyed along with the entire Government and opposition.
I know it was a "disaster" movie, I just cannot for the life of me remember why.
Last edited by: VxFan on Thu 5 Sep 19 at 10:02
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Just to get one thing out of the way, I no longer care who voted for what or why. We have the situation we have and all we can hope for is to find the best of it.
I am the sales director for a UK company, a substantial percentage of our business has been in supplying British goods to retailers in EU countries. Next week, I shall be in Italy attending what has long been regarded as the most important trade show in our calendar.
Of course we have invited our regular customers and any potential new ones to visit us there. The purpose of the excercise being to negotiate bulk contracts for delivery in the first half of 2019.
The EU based retailers are, perhaps not surprisingly, asking us what the likely effects of Brexit are on pricing. We in turn are able to say that for anything we'll deliver to them in the first quarter of 2019 we can guarantee a price, but that for anything for delivery after that, frankly, we just don't know what they will have to pay.
They are, again perhaps not unexpectedly, telling us that until we can quote a firm price, they will be reluctant to commit to ordering from us or indeed any other British suppliers.
However, if we do not have their orders very soon, there will be insufficient time to make them anyway. Unless we can very quickly find new customers in other markets ( yes we have been working very hard to do that ) the factories will be short of work this winter with the inevitable effects of that on the people in them, the people and companies in their supply chain, the warehousing operation, the delivery companies and indeed our head office.
This is the reality of the Brexit mess on the ground as it is negatively affecting real people and their jobs, in Britain, today, right now. It it no longer theoretical.
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>> Just to get one thing out of the way, I no longer care who voted for what or why. We have the
>> situation we have and all we can hope for is to find the best of it.
I totally agree.
>> This is the reality of the Brexit mess on the ground as it is negatively affecting real people and
>> their jobs, in Britain, today, right now. It it no longer theoretical.
Again agree 100%
If we do not have an agreement soon that looks it will work then it's irrelevant if they manage at the last minute to sort something out. The impact and changes some companies will have already made will mean it's too late.
And for some businesses, e.g. manufacturing relying on JiT delivery, a no deal Brexit will be very bad indeed. And we can only get freedom of movement of good if we accept the same for services, people and money. And if we do that we might as well have stayed in the EU because we couldn't easily have trade deals of our own.
What a ******* mess the Conservatives have made.
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Our governments incompetence gets worse:
www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/11/uk-should-remain-eus-closest-ally-after-brexit-may-tells-cabinet
So the EU say a deal is possible in 6-8 weeks. Yes if we agree to freedom of movement as part of access to a single market with the EU. Which I am happy with but we as a country are not.
Can we have a law passed that says none of these can ever be part of the UK government.... so May, Boris, etc. I have no issue with Hammond.
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Well I suppose it was inevitable that the Conservatives would get the blame but in my opinion whichever was the incumbent party would have got it. I'm not sure what Labour, sdp, ukip, monster raving loony party, or even yourself Rob, would have done differently to please the population.
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Nobody said what Brexit was so I'd have kept us in the customs union and single market for starters. Nobody could argue that was not leaving the EU because it is. It's also a pointless thing to do but the people wanted to leave the EU.
The question on the ballot was only about being in or out of the EU. No details given as to what leave meant. Remain was obviously the status quo.
I don't know if the other parties would have done any better. But we should only have triggered article 50 after we had a good idea what sort of relationship with the EU we wanted. We also should not have called a general election after triggering article 50.
Although that election may prove useful. The DUP have more of a say.
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And we must look like idiots trying to talk to all 27 EU nations separately over flights. We need to talk to them as the EU and I'm sure a deal would be easier that way too. Certainly less work.
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>> This is the reality of the Brexit mess on the ground as it is negatively affecting real people and their jobs, in Britain, today, right now. It it no longer theoretical.
I can empathize with you. Taken holistically, some suppliers in Europe possibly having exact same issue like you and they are also blaming Brexit for this.
>> The question on the ballot was only about being in or out of the EU. No details given as to what leave meant. Remain was obviously the status quo.
Because Cameron was 100% confident that Remain would win - so didn't bother doing any homework.
Now the genie is out of the bottle and can't be put back.
PS: Noted that pro-leave members don't post here that much anymore. This can be due to [1] too much attacks from remainers have put them off posting [2] lost interest like many common people [3] Accepted Brexit is bad.
My guess it is [1]+[2] but remainers might argue it is [3]. :-)
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>>[2] lost interest like many common people
Yup, That's me ... common as muck!
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>> [1] is I think the most likely. The majority of forum members seem to be remainers. Maybe they have not read Daniel Hannan's "Why Vote Leave" (only £3.99 via Kindle) or seen this:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=pafdzdZ3qXc
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Do you think that the UK government and indeed all governments never sqander money on ridiculous projects?
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If you define "attacked" as "asked questions they don't know how to answer", then yes, I should say that is exactly the reason.
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Well the delegated to the Government and happy with how they are doing it I guess. It's all going well I think. Nothing to be worried about. So if I was say a lorry driver, I wouldn't be at all worried that there might be fewer loads to be moved because production has ground to a halt.
Worrying that in general people have lost interest and just want it over with. You'd hope they'd realise how bad things could be for a while.
And Raab is now threatening not to pay what we owe when we leave if we don't get a new deal after we leave. If I was the EU I'd tell us to just go away and you can deal with your own mess when you crash out. And I'd be in no rush to put deals in place until the money owed when we leave is paid.
Once again the UK Government is turning to threats instead of negotiating. And they still won't accept we will not get freedom of movement of goods unless we agree to movement of services, people and money.
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>>So if I was say a lorry driver,<<
Good, but very transparent try rtj, must do better.
>>as "asked questions they don't know how to answer", then yes,<<
Never mind 1,2, or 3 there is your answer in a nutshell.
The absolute presumption we are all ignorant and haven't a clue but if we have an opinion you instantly demand we prove we are NOT ignorant and have a clue.
Can't be bothered, I prefer to talk to others who have respect for alternative points of view and a genuine interest in discussion, as opposed as opposed to derision.
A few of you should try it sometime.
Pat
Last edited by: Pat on Thu 13 Sep 18 at 15:52
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>>Can't be bothered,
Sure, that's what it is.
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I'm flattered, you can't resist me, can you?:)
Pat
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Sure, that's it.
What is it about you that you fondly believe is irresistible?
"I can't be bothered" ha ha ha ha ha ha ha. I'd be surprised if even *you* believed that.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Thu 13 Sep 18 at 16:20
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Pat
"A few of you should try it sometime"
Some of us do
I have asked perfectly reasonable questions in a civil manner on a number of occasions but never receive a response.
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You have CG, and I appreciate that.
I actually copied your post from a couple of weeks ago into a word document with a view to emailing you a reply, simply because I thought it deserved one and that you would be happy to look at my reasons and thoughts and discuss them in a reasonable manner, even though you wouldn't agree with them.
I'm sorry now I never got around to doing that but I've been in Cornwall on holiday and had some fun things I wanted to do.
When I got back I deleted the word doc, thinking that the moment had passed.
I don't intend to give my reasons on here and give a couple of forum members exactly what they want. I have done that in the past and instead of being able to have a reasonable discussion where, I might have been able to have considered their (remain) point of views along with my own and possibly taken it into consideration before the vote, and we all saw what happened each and every time.
It becomes a stage, for certain members to show the world how clever they are, how ignorant the rest of the world is if they disagree with them and as usual those who shout the loudest win.
Why would any of us bother?
I sit quietly on a daily basis and read every new post on here.
I see one forum member be rude and bully other targetted forum members if I'm not around to fulfil that position. I see no moderating to stop this happening to others. I wonder why?
As soon as anyone is prepared to try an put their side of the Brexit argument it results in an immediate personal attack on that person's knowledge and intelligence.
It's a tried and trusted way to win an argument but it's not one anyone who is respected ever uses.
That says it all really apart from I really am sorry I didn't reply to you privately.
Pat
Last edited by: Pat on Thu 13 Sep 18 at 16:40
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As people have been trying to tell you for about a year, it is not a remain/leave discussion anymore, it is a "how do we leave" discussion.
You have never answered a single question or made any point other than the usual, tired Sun headline type comments.
You have said it is because you can't be bothered, nobody will listen, you forgot, the moment had passed etc. etc. etc.
Always, always an excuse. Never, not even once, a coherent response. Just outrage about an Indian girl's medical bills, notices in foreign and other similarly emotive stuff.
That scree you just wrote is a prime example.
I wish you could make up your mind whether you are so tough after your life with truckers that nobody can tell you what to do, and nobody can force you into anything, or whether you are so scared that you are unable to argue or discuss a point or explain a comment for fear that someone might disagree.
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Mark, for once I will talk directly to you but once only.
If you had anything about you that cared for the future of this forum you would NOT have made that post.
You are concerned with the success of your own ego and nothing else matters.
You will trample on anyone on the way and those who think they are your friends now are just stepping stones while you use them.
I answered CG with a very honest answer so butt out with the personal attacks and crawl back into the hole you came from, please.
Note the, please?
I can argue but still remember my manners, maybe you should try to do the same.
That's it, now I will wait for a measured response from CG.
Pat
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Oh stop your whining. If you have anything useful to say then say it. Otherwise take your self-serving whinging back to your little group for some back-patting.
After all, wasn't it you who said, in a sulky fit of pique, that forums were done?
I care little whether or not you speak to me directly, I quite liked it when you were still sulking and ignoring me actually. But then you slid into talking about what I wrote, and now you're back to talking directly to me.
Please don't.
For example, you made your pathetic ill-informed and overly emotional comments about the airline industry. I explained, rationally, in fact filled detail, about where you were wrong and the correct position.
What did you do? You ran away. As you always do. You jus pretended the discussion had never happened.
You say you can argue. Can you? I have only ever seen you make statements, whine and run away. You have no idea of the implications of Brexit, you have no idea how the country will address them. You have never come up with one single coherent, informed and logical comment. I believe it is because you don't understand. You say it is because you "can't be bothered, nobody listens, I forgot".
I wonder if you manage to fool yourself? I guess so. Do your excuses sound reasonable to you? Do you worry that you don't understand what is going on?
Doesn't it feel daunting to just sit there and wait to see?
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This all reminds me of a particular period in my working life. The individual who I' inherited' was on the face of it a good and effective employee. If he had actually spent his time and creative writing talents on doing his job he actually would have been a useful team member. As it was he created disruption, actually achieved very little, and occupied a disproportionate amount of management time. He created problems that I had never seen before in people that I had selected, mentored and developed. Fortunately for me, a geographical reorganisation removed the need for me to appraise and counsel!
I suspect he continued to his (enforced?) retirement in a similar vein, his self belief over riding the almost universal views of others.
I suspect I am not alone in having had this experience.
If the cap fits, wear it!
Last edited by: sherlock47 on Thu 13 Sep 18 at 17:30
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I think most of us on here (leave or remain which is now irrelevant) are concerned with the future of the UK if there is no deal on Brexit. March 30th 2019 could be a very bad day.
Pat I assume you have some concern but I understand you will not post anything on here anymore. If you have no concerns then that worries me that you can ignore the very real problems facing us if there is no deal.
Maybe you are hoping (like most of us) that there will be a last minute deal when the UK backs down and decides to remain in the single market and customs union and continue to pay into the EU, be under the jurisdiction of the ECJ, etc. with no say on future changes.
And the last minute deal has to be ready to be voted on in 6 weeks or sooner.
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>If the cap fits, wear it!
I've read your post several times and carefully. I am not understanding your point so I have no idea whether or not the cap fits.
A pointer would be welcomed.
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FM2R
let me say it was not aimed at you!
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Well, I bet I'm not the only one who thought it was!
Pat
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>> Well, I bet I'm not the only one who thought it was!
>>
>> Pat
You're not!!
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I thought after I made that post that at the very least I would be the only one prepared to admit it!
You have just restored my faith in human nature Bromp:)
Pat
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>> Well, I bet I'm not the only one who thought it was!
But now you know it wasn't. So you have the opportunity to look at it in a whole new light.
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On the contrary, since I wasn't the only one to pick the wrong head for the cap to fit I think Sherlock should tell us who he had in mind and why.
Should I hold my breath?
Pat
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Since you're here, you remember your ill-informed comments about the position airline industry and the EU? What did you think of my explanation of where you were wrong and the real situation as I explained it to you? Have you altered your opinion since you are surely now better informed?
Now that you do understand the position, do you have any suggestions for a possible resolution given the reliance on the ECJ?
Should I hold my breath?
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I thought that you had finally gone - why not hold your breath?
Last edited by: sherlock47 on Fri 14 Sep 18 at 16:50
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You may not approve of me Sherlock, but that isn't a problem to me.
Just for future reference though, if you want to criticise me please find the courage to say it directly so I can answer directly, any accusations you care to make.
I've never gone anywhere from this forum in a flounce and I certainly don't intend to....so get used to it.
Pat
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If you had anything about you that cared for the future of this forum you would NOT have made that post.
You are concerned with the success of your own ego and nothing else matters.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Fri 14 Sep 18 at 17:04
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>> - why not hold your breath?
>>
>>
I've been thinking about the type of person who would make a thoroughly nasty remark like this about someone they have never met, don't know anything about, yet cares enough to wish them ill.
It makes me rather glad I don't know you.
Pat
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You really do add a consistent level of value here, don't you.
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I shall be in both Scarborough and Driffield of the weekend of 13th November and would be happy to meet with you and discuss your issues with me directly with you Sherlock.
I'm sure we will both find totally different people to what we imagine when it comes to talking face to face.
Pat
Last edited by: Pat on Fri 14 Sep 18 at 19:37
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Would not dream of going to Scarborough.
And if you read my comment carefully you would have seen that I said>>" - why not hold your breath?"
This was in answer to your question of " Should I hold my breath? "
In response you have now launched into a crusade against me. I give up.
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>> Would not dream of going to Scarborough.
>>
My in-laws live there and I can overcome my dislike of the place to celebrate their Golden Wedding.
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>> In response you have now launched into a crusade against me. I give up.<<
No crusade at all, just proving my theory that one should never type on a keyboard anything they wouldn't say to a persons face.
Or in fact, we should all ask beforehand if it should be said at all.
Pat
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An illustration of the value of the phrase "read twice before posting".
Last edited by: No FM2R on Sat 15 Sep 18 at 05:12
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Thanks for the clarification, Sherlock.
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So if there's no deal, Mark Carney thinks the worst case scenario is devaluation of house prices as high as 35%, GBP will plummet against other currencies (that's obvious), interest rates will rise and millions will be in negative equity.
This is not project fear it's saying what the worst could happen and what might happen is somewhere in-between where we are now and his worst forecast I suppose.
Well if we get interest rates like Turkey then my savings should start doing a bit better. In three years it might double. :-) Inflation though will devalue it. :-(
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Nowt wrong with a big fat correction on house prices :-)
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Unless you've got a huge mortgage on a house that's about to plunge in value. But house prices are getting too expensive too quickly.... well ahead of inflation.
Maybe our savings will start going up. Wouldn't want too many shares though.... but where's all of our private/work pensions invested. You'll be okay with your GP pension regardless.
Might find in the coming months landlords selling properties because (a) they will devalue and the investment was always about house price inflation and (b) interest rates if they have a mortgage will go up. So throw out the tenant with notice and then sell. Try to keep what profit that's accrued in the property so far. We'll know soon if there's no deal.
Last edited by: rtj70 on Fri 14 Sep 18 at 00:02
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Not immediately for you or I perhaps but spare a thought for a young couple with perhaps a 90% mortgage on a 150,000 mortgage who are plunged into negative equity and see the interest rate doubled and then think of the effect on the economy at large
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Was listening to a guy on the radio.
He mad a killing on buying in cheap on agricultural land.
His prediction was a fall in property prices. Advice was to sell now. Rent and then buy in again when property market hits the bottom.
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Not a particularly practical option for most home owners.
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You also need a buyer.... and would you be buying now when prices are likely to drop?
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They might be lucky if interest rates only double. Might be a bit higher than that even.
But it will be so worth having a blue passport without mention of EU on it. Not that I can then fly anywhere next March with the current passport.
Or are they all softening us up for BEANO?? We'll never get a deal involving only freedom of movement of goods so it's either BEANO or hard Brexit I think.
It won't benefit my grandchildren in the long term I can tell you!
Last edited by: rtj70 on Fri 14 Sep 18 at 00:36
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"Nowt wrong with a big fat correction on house prices :-)"
And, of course, an additional 300,000 heads per annum looking for a roof was never going to affect the housing market, was it? :-)
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>> "Nowt wrong with a big fat correction on house prices :-)"
>>
>> And, of course, an additional 300,000 heads per annum looking for a roof was never
>> going to affect the housing market, was it? :-)
One of your Brexit backers Mr Martin of weatherspoons says
The Wetherspoons founder also believed the UK would need a "considerable level of immigration" in the coming decades.
"Although I believe in Brexit, I think the UK's got quite a low birth rate and that we need a gradually rising population, and that we will need a considerable level of immigration over the next 10, 20, 30 years to be a successful economy," Mr Martin said.
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"Although I believe in Brexit, I think the UK's got quite a low birth rate and that we need a gradually rising population, and that we will need a considerable level of immigration over the next 10, 20, 30 years to be a successful economy," Mr Martin said."
Did he say anything about the knock-on effects of a higher population e.g. housing and general overcrowding/services etc?
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Nope. But he thinks leaving the EU and shipping in even cheaper non EU labour will fix it clearly
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"shipping in even cheaper non EU labour will fix it clearly"
Are you referring to the 5,000 chaps who you wanted to bring in from Calais 'and be done with it" ? At the time, I pointed out that this would be 1.8M per annum.
By gum, that would have put pressure on house prices, wouldn't it? Or perhaps we could have had tented camps dotted around the country.
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>> "shipping in even cheaper non EU labour will fix it clearly"
>>
>> Are you referring to the 5,000 chaps who you wanted to bring in from Calais
>> 'and be done with it"
Nope not me
I said nothing I merely pointed you to what the pro brexit boss of Wetherspoons said, nothing to do with me
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">> Are you referring to the 5,000 chaps who you wanted to bring in from Calais
>> 'and be done with it"
Nope not me"
Sorry, Zedd, you said it, mate, and shortly afterwards did a merry little flounce. Of course, at the time that you said it, I didn't really believe you; nobody could be that stupid. It would appear that, on this occasion, Tim hasn't entirely thought things through either.
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I have absolutely no idea wot you are bangin on about
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Did he say anything about the knock-on effects of a higher population e.g. housing and general overcrowding/services etc
And a corresponding increase in the tax take.
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Overcrowding, more alcoholics in his pubs?
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>> Nowt wrong with a big fat correction on house prices :-)
There is when they haven't been paid for, and therefore unlikely to be. The debt will deflate everything right back to and including your pension fund.
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>>The debt will deflate everything right back
To more appropriate levels rather than the giant fantasy bubble that currently exists.
>>including your pension fund
The vast bulk of which is CPI/RPI linked and paid out by our friends, the taxpayer. The Govt in their wisdom decided to pocket the payments to public pensions and pay out from general taxation.
Last edited by: Lygonos on Fri 14 Sep 18 at 11:54
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>> The Govt in their wisdom decided to pocket the payments to public pensions and
>> pay out from general taxation.
Same with my Civil Service Pension.
Not sure how far I'd trust HMG not to cut it in a crisis. Happened to the Greek and Portuguese in their financial crisis many of who had to go back to work.
I've spoken to one or two who've come over here to teach etc. and have been given the shoddy end of the stick by landlords or employers.
Last edited by: VxFan on Thu 5 Sep 19 at 10:04
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>> Not sure how far I'd trust HMG not to cut it in a crisis
It is always a possibility although governments appear happier to borrow hugely and pay back over decades.
Means more votes next time.
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The economy has about a 2 year lead time. Essentially the impact of a Government action, good or bad, will take two years to show up in an economy.
So if Party A spend the last two years of their term spending on short term gains, the impact will fall into the first two years of the term of Party B.
Then the first 2 years of Party B will be a bit crap, with Party A pointing out how it's all gone to pot since Party B came into power.
It's a ridiculous cycle, which *all* parties take part in and drive, that we've been living with for decades.
Of course, if a party thinks it might win, then it doesn't do it, or not so much. Though even then they believe that they can be a bit reckless as they'll have a further term to fix it.
This one cycle is what makes watching a surprise win or loss just a little bit amusing as you watch them scramble around trying to redirect everything.
Government, of any flavour, are crap. And probably inevitably so. We spend our lives hoping for one that is slightly less carp than the last lot. They rarely are.
Last edited by: VxFan on Thu 5 Sep 19 at 10:05
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Despite doing O level economics in the late 60’s, I’m not very good with this subject. When the Govt borrows money, who do they borrow it from? When I was in business, I went to a bank, and had to put up my house as security in case I was unable to repay the loan ( used for stock, buying the goodwill of another business etc).
One other thing. I’m due to fly back to the U.K. after my winter sojourn in Spain on 6th April 2019. Returning early May for a few more weeks. Should I cancel a couple of flights and just stay out there?
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Read this LL. I think it covers it. Whilst not prefect, it's pretty good and will give you the framework.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_debt
By all means say if it leaves gaps or confusion and I'll try to help.
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>>Should I cancel a couple of flights and just stay out there?
I don't know.
You have to hope and believe that we don't drop off a cliff and there is at least a transition agreement in place by then.
My prediction [hope] is;
1) Transition agreement (short term BEANO)
2a) General Election
2b) Industry specific negotiation and agreements
3) Official BEANO.
But I could be quite wrong.
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Thankyou
Despite being hopeless academically...a few O levels and one A level, I try to keep the old grey matter going by occasionally trying to find out, even comprehend, stuff of which I have zero knowledge.
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>> stuff of which I have zero knowledge.
Like the government then.
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Cheeky SOAB
I spend within my means and always repay my debts
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:-) I was referring to knowing about Brexit etc. And was tongue in cheek. The Government seems clueless.
Clearly the country is clueless, spends beyond it's means and does not repay debt.
So if you worked as a financial adviser (maybe one or two on here) would you currently think buying say a £600k house as an upgrade a prudent decision with a big mortgage?
Last edited by: rtj70 on Fri 14 Sep 18 at 23:47
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If I planned to live in it for 25 years, sure.
As an investment, naw.
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In my view if you take on debt you have to take a pessimistic view of your repayment ability over time.
To take on a debt and then pray for favourable conditions to enable you to support it is unwise.
To take on debt with a view to reaping a profit in uncertain times is not unlike Las Vegas. If you can't avoid to lose it, don't bet with it.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Sat 15 Sep 18 at 00:05
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This is not me by the way and the actual figure is not 100% accurate on purpose. But I can guess they have just taken on a property worth £400k more than their last mortgage. I would not have taken that risk for sure.
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My reply was equally TIC rtj70
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Ta :-)
Shame you can't type (b) and see a beer on here.
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Brexit is unfortunately happening at the wrong time for my circumstances....next Spring I’m planning on seriously downsizing, then buying a nice place in Spain, using both a substantial part of my life savings plus the entire released equity ( from the downsizing) with a view to generating rental income June > September, and using the villa during the winter months.
What with all the imponderables...exchange rates, property values, etc etc it’s a ‘fils de pute’.
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>> Despite being hopeless academically..
Taking you over seriously for a moment.....
In my experience it is a mistake to judge people's capability or intelligence by how well they learned in a classroom environment when they were a teenager. Sadly it is a mistake society makes all the time.
There are many factors involved and anybody with an enquiring mind will learn in the right environment for them.
Just because we don't know something doesn't mean we can't.
I wasn't very good at school and my sister was a total disaster and we're pretty smart people.
So, don't put yourself down, the world has got enough people trying to do that to other people to make themselves feel better without you doing it to yourself.
And the only way *anybody* gets to know more is by asking.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Sat 15 Sep 18 at 00:01
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People assume Boris Johnson must be smart. In the real world he is not. Same for Rees Mogg.
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>>People assume Boris Johnson must be smart. In the real world he is not
In the real world he has stacks of assets, well-paying jobs, and pumps a variety of blondes.
How does your 'success' stack up? ;-)
www2.b3ta.com/host/creative/65077/1536841439/mAYsOZ.jpg
Last edited by: Lygonos on Sat 15 Sep 18 at 00:11
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I was referring to him as an intelligent person worthy to govern - he is not.
Yes he has money and he's been unfaithful... is that a good thing to you?
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>>Yes he has money and he's been unfaithful... is that a good thing to you?
No, but it appears to be to him.
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RM seems smart enough to run a hedge fund in the real world.
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>> RM seems smart enough to run a hedge fund in the real world.
He used his inherited wealth to employ asset managers and tax consultants.
Last edited by: Zero on Sat 15 Sep 18 at 15:20
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>> RM seems smart enough to run a hedge fund in the real world.
>>
I think he would like you to believe that he is smart because he is running a hedge fund .....
...until, because he is accused of hypocrisy for moving funds to Ireland to avoid any Brexit fall out, he feels he has to deny any day-to-day responsibility....
The truth is in there somewhere ;-)
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Brexit Discussion - Volume 55 - Haywain
