Anyone finding the BBC weather forecast unreliable?
I thought it was getting bad, but this week took the biscuit.
Tuesday. Was supposed to be pretty good, with perhaps a shower at 2p.m., so I went out on my bike. 2 o'clock I thought, that's ok, we'll be in the pub. It started raining steadily at about 12.30. I got soaked.
Wednesday was supposed to be showers through the day. 'I'll take a chance' thinks I. It was dry all day.
Today. Thunder and lightning forecast all day from 11'ish I think it was. What Thunder and lightning?
I know the BBC have changed their weather forecaster, but this is ridiculous!
Suggestions for an alternative weather forecaster that I can get on all my devices - PC, iPad and iPhone?
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I use the Met office website. Usually bang on, important to me too if I'm going up country on my bike.
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>> I use the Met office
Unlike the BBC.
When in Greece a few weeks back the BBC and AccuWeather forecasts would differ. One day the latter had a thunderstorm and heavy rain for 3pm and the BBC didn't. By 3:05pm it was a massive storm.
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You have to accept that all weather forecast models work on a grid system. They divide the earths surface into regular shapes (usually rectangles which become elongated the nearer they get to the poles although there are discussions about what the best shape would be). It has been about 3 years since I worked at a weather centre but the most accurate models at the time worked on an approx 10x10 mile grid so they predict what is most likely to occur within that area. They cannot predict what localised conditions will be, especially in the UK where a single thunderstorm can change wind direction and temps quite significantly.
The Met Office is probably number 2 or 3 in the world for the accuracy of their forecasts but they would need a large increase in computer horsepower to improve the accuracy to what you want.
Are you prepared to pay for that?
The leader for forecast accuracy is generally accepted to be ECMWF in Reading which is a Euro-wide collaboration but their forecast is not publicly available.
Accuweather is quite good.
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Duncan, sounds like you need hyperlocal very short range weather tracking. For this I use dark skies, a phone app
For tomorrow's weather it's just as unreliable as any other forecast, for what's happening two hours hence, it's unbeatable
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Thank you all.
Accuweather app now on my phone. As an absolute Know nothing, I still don't understand why the Beeb (using meteo something, I believe) could get it so wrong?
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I find Accuweather very unreliable, especially as regards rainfall. It's always been dodgy, but for the last few days it keeps saying it is actually raining (using the rainfall minute by minute) and it is totally dry. Given up with it now.
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>> As an absolute Know nothing, I still don't understand
>> why the Beeb (using meteo something, I believe) could get it so wrong?
there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know.
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>> there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there
>> are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do
>> not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we
>> don't know.
>>
Donald Rumsfeld
academic.oup.com/jxb/article/60/3/712/453685
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>> Duncan, sounds like you need hyperlocal very short range weather tracking. For this I use
>> dark skies, a phone app
It's $3.99!!
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Weather forecast in Wales requires neither apps not websites.
If you can't see the mountain, it's raining.
If you can, it's going to rain.
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Weather forecasts don’t tell you it is going to rain a t a certain time. They give you a statistical probability of rain at a certain time. Now if it says 60% chance and it doesn’t rain we tend to blame the forecaster when that is actually an accurate forecast. We are not very good at probability and tend to demand an absolute answer which is of course just not possible with something as complex ss the weather.
Incidentally if you tap on the hour in The BBC aether app it will provide you with more detail. I find the App pr tty reliable overall. The next 24 hours tends to be very accurate and the weather pattern for the next five days is seldom wildly wrong.
Last edited by: CGNorwich on Fri 8 Jun 18 at 09:30
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There has been a noticeable decline in the accuracy of BBC forecasts over the past few months, in my opinion, to the point where they are pretty much useless. I'm sure the change of data provider from the Met Office to MeteoGroup in February is simply coincidental....
The Met Office (via the mobile app) is brilliantly accurate up to 24 hours in my experience. Anything beyond that, regardless of source, is a bit of a lottery.
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My Netatmo weather station's weather forecasting works quite well. Always within a couple of degrees of the predicted temperature and it predicts rainfall times quite accurately - I've just had the rainwater measuring device, that will confirm how accurate the rain forecasting quantity wise. The device is linked to the WeatherPro website. Works very well for me
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With the change to the BBC forecast it could be that they are using the same base data but interpreting it differently.
Looking at the BBC site my nearest observation station is still showing as the same as before, luckily being next to an airfield the station is right there.
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>> it could be that they are using the same base data but interpreting it differently.
The BBC does not forecast the weather and never has. They used to pay the Met Office (the presenters worked for the Met Office too) and now use Meteo Group. Presumably some presenters transferred to Meteo Group.
Meteo Group will have their own super computers for weather modelling - although maybe they use someone else?
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Aren't they from The Netherlands?
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Very recently I attended a presentation by a top scientist on weather forecasting.
He did not seem to be impressed at the switch to the Meteo group forecasts and add that do no trust any forecasts more than three days ahead.
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"Weather forecasts don't tell you it is going to rain a t a certain time. They give you a statistical probability of rain at a certain time. Now if it says 60% chance and it doesn't rain we tend to blame the forecaster "
Exactly.
Though the joy of the forecasts here which are pretty good uo to a month out is great.
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@DP ---Thanks for the tip about the Met Office App.
Trying it out now.
Last edited by: Roger. on Sat 9 Jun 18 at 23:51
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By chance I just caught the weather forecast on the BBC.
Firstly, looks like it's going to be a lovely week in the south.
I had forgotten how complex the forecast had to be. Honestly, though I understand the reasons why, the forecast here lasts about 20 seconds.
At this time of year they tell you the temperature for the next 10 days or so and the chances of rain. In the summer, just the temperatures, there is no chance of rain.
The weather *never* ruins your plans here.
I remember the frustration of the weather in the UK and how many times it ruined plans.
However, there truly is nowhere so lovely as the UK on a lovely summer's day and evening. I think those of you that live there forget just how beautiful the place is.
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Much as I like the idea of settled weather patterns, where you know that in summer breakfast outside in the sun is a given, and every evening will be warm and sunny so you can kayak on the river until sunset in shorts and a short sleeved vest, I agree with your sentiments.
Yesterday, although sunless and suffering a biting cold wind on the tops, I was walking through wild flower meadows, and will do so again in a few days. On a warm sunny evening, which isn’t that often, I can enjoy the beer garden in my local village pub, watching the swifts and swallows, looking across the village rooftops to Giggleswick school chapel and listening to the bell ringers practice on a Thursday evening. Drinking proper beer.
Only in the U.K.
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It's been a great late spring, early summer here. We actually need the rain ! Been a bit grey these last couple of days..
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BBC Weather Forecast - Runfer D'Hills
