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I am beginning to suspect that Russia (the State) didn't do it, even if a Russian did..
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The question asked of them right up front was to explain how a Russian (state) weapon ended up being used in Salisbury, they declined to explain so by default they were deemed responsible.
Bojo is way out of his depth on this one.
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He certainly is.
I always thought the "bumbling buffoon" was a clever act. Turns out it wasn't.
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He is proving to be a buffoon in his job at the foreign office.
Russia should be more open if it really isn't the Russian Federation that's behind this. But would they ever admit to making this nerve agent?
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>> The question asked of them right up front was to explain how a Russian (state)
>> weapon ended up being used in Salisbury, they declined to explain so by default they
>> were deemed responsible.
It was a USSR era weapon so not just Russian. Given dispersal around potential rogue states and lack of security of Soviet era NBC stuff was an issue 20 or so years ago it wouldn't be too surprising if Novchok was in hands of other people Skripal had pi**ed off.
>> Bojo is way out of his depth on this one.
He's a journalist with a talent for witty pieces; no qualification for high office. He's inside the tent and pi%%ing in......
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It was a USSR era weapon so not just Russian. Given dispersal around potential rogue
>> states and lack of security of Soviet era NBC stuff was an issue 20 or
>> so years ago it wouldn't be too surprising if Novchok was in hands of other
>> people Skripal had pi**ed off.
Which other people were you thinking of?
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Bojo is way out of his depth on this one.
>>
>> He's a journalist with a talent for witty pieces; no qualification for high office. He's
>> inside the tent and pi%%ing in......
>>
I wonder how much of the rounding up of a fair few countries to support us and chuck out russian diplomatic staff was because or despite him? Either way I thought it was pretty impressive at fairly short order.
I found it interesting to compare that to Russia's list of supporting countries in its letter to the OPCW, Cuba, Venezuela, Syria etc, it sounded like a corbyn bucket holiday list.
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>> I am beginning to suspect that Russia (the State) didn't do it, even if a
>> Russian did..
>>
Rather the intention of the Russian State machine I think.
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Didn't Putin state something like 'traitors choking on their poison' a few days before this incident?
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I don't know the timing but he did say that.
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Its a simple attempted murder investigation.
Means, Method and Motivation.
All points east.
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Accused by Russia of spreading fake news and propaganda, must be getting to them.
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It'd be most embarrassing if it turns out to be our own stuff from Porton Down. Half the world has removed diplomats, apparently just on our say-so.
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Embarrassing - why would we try to kill him? Please explain what you think a motive would be? Or are you suggesting we accidentally left this nerve agent on the door of this ex Soviet spy?
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I didn't suggest we did have a motive. There is a discussion above that maybe it wasn't the Russians. My comment was loosely following that topic. I had, and still have, no theory.
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>> I am beginning to suspect that Russia (the State) didn't do it, even if a
>> Russian did..
>>
I think that the Russian State's involvement was always unlikely. What possible benefit could there be for Putin? He was always going to be re-elected and all this has done is to damage Russia.
It's certainly given the MSM something else to write about, though.
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> I think that the Russian State's involvement was always unlikely. What possible benefit could there
>> be for Putin? He was always going to be re-elected and all this has done> is to damage Russia. It's certainly given the MSM something else to write about, though.
Two fold to my mind it gives him a bogey man, the West the economy is really hurting. As he's portrayed himself as standing upto the bully, it plays well in Russia. And as a warning to anyone thinking of cutting and running?
You mention benefits, who else do you think could have such a motive along with capacity to carry this out?
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Motive could simply be to damage Russia, knowing that the finger of suspicion would be pointed at them, or to otherwise upset international relations.
I am not suggesting this is what has happened here, but it'd be a much better way for Al Quaeda to destabilise the West, than carrying out relatively small but high profile bombings once in a while. As would causing economic chaos (e.g. a stock market crash or something)
It does seem a bit odd that Russia might go after some has-been spy from decades ago.
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I'm not sure that its a valid tactic to destabilise the west if anything it's done the reverse.
Plus there's the how in this case, a complex nerve agent used. It's a very remote possibility that individuals and terrorist groups could manufacturer, store and use this type of thing.
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> It's a very remote possibility that individuals and terrorist groups could manufacturer, store and use this type of thing.
Steal?
Always had a stock?
Once it is in a sealed container, it is sealed. How long it may last is another matter, I guess.
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Steal?
>>
>> Always had a stock?
Anything of course is possible, but again remote I'd say. Not really a terrorist tactic to carry out an action and then not claim responsibility. It's happened in the past, but by and large it's not really in their playbook. Especially ME terrorist groups.
>> Once it is in a sealed container, it is sealed. How long it may last
>> is another matter, I guess.
From my reading it's not something that can be stored simply stored. It's kept in controlled conditions and is stored in separate elements until use.
It could of course be a big step change for the terrorist groups and a new tactic that we've not seen before. I don't totally discount it but it seems remote at best to me.
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Before it gets out of hand, I wasn't suggesting that this event was a terrorist attack.
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>> Before it gets out of hand, I wasn't suggesting that this event was a terrorist> attack.
>>
I wasn't saying you had. I was just using them as they were the most common alternative mentioned.
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If its a terrorist attack, why the very precisely targetted victim?
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>> From my reading it's not something that can be stored simply stored. It's kept in
>> controlled conditions and is stored in separate elements until use.
I didn't know it was stored in separate parts. That makes a difference, not really just a matter of stealing or discovering a flask - actually needs handling.
It simply doesn't make sense for the Russian State. Aside from anything else, the timing makes no sense. The statements Russia ave made within Russia have been that they didn't do it. So hardly delivering any particular messages.
Perhaps an element within their ranks acting independently, perhaps another state from the former USSR.
There's usually a reason why things don't make sense.
And I am not one of the '"It's not Russia" mob', that's too strong a statement. I merely said I am beginning to suspect that it was not the Russian State.
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"The statements Russia have made within Russia have been that they didn't do it. So hardly delivering any particular messages."
I rather think that the persons at whom the message is directed receive it loud and clear. I don't think a denial by Putin of Russians involvement will be taken by his opponents outside Russia quite so much at face value as you seem to do.
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>>so much at face value as you seem to do.
I don't take very much at face value. Nor do I ignore or disregard it's existence.
He wasn't talking to his opponents outside Russia, he was talking to his supporters inside Russia.
He could have said it was him, that it was not him, or he could have simply not commented. There's always going to be reasons behind his choice and I am curious about those reasons.
You seem to be taking the rather simplistic approach of "he said it wasn't him so it must be".
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It is easy to forget that some individuals will always take a comment by a (much) more senior person and action as they interpret in the way in which they think will curry favor for themselves.
The process then gains a mind of its own. After a bottle (or 2) of vodka things could become very blurred. Anybody involved will soon start to distance themselves from personal responsibilty and things can come hidden and confused very quickly.
I well remember a celebratory work event at a hotel in New York in 1970s that was 100% male. Somebody made a light hearted remark, about 'all this party needs is some women.' It was taken at face value by a junior American employee and 4 hookers suddenly appeared. They were not well received.
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No, I'm just discounting anything Putin says. He will not admit that it was Russia. That would neither go down well internally nor serve his interest internationally. However the threat to his enemies remains clear. Every piece of evidence points towards Russia. They have form for this sort of thing, the nerve agent was a Russian military type and and our intelligence agencies believe Russia responsible. There is of course a possiblity that it some sort of massive conspiracy to "fit up" Russia but that seems a pretty remote likelihood. No in thisi case the butler really did do it
I see Mr Skripal is recovering well. It will be interesting to hear what he has to say.
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> It simply doesn't make sense for the Russian State. Aside from anything else, the timing makes no sense. The statements Russia ave made within Russia have been that they didn't do it. So hardly delivering any particular messages.
I think the act in itself carries the message.
>> Perhaps an element within their ranks acting independently, perhaps another state from the former USSR.
The first one is a possibility and therefore Putin would not want to admit a loss of control. I'd say the latter is less likely, I'd think it's not in the ex soviet republics ability or interest to do so.
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>>I'd think it's not in the ex soviet republics ability or interest to do so.
I've probably watched too many James Bond mega-villains, but presumably and originally whilst most of the USSR's valuable resources were within Russia, presumably not all of them.
They certainly had trouble keep tract of their nuclear and other serious weapons for a while.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Fri 6 Apr 18 at 16:51
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> I've probably watched too many James Bond mega-villains, but presumably and originally whilst most of> the USSR's valuable resources were within Russia, presumably not all of them.
>>
As you say they kept most inside Russia, particularly scientific research centres that would have developed such things as chemical weapons. Some chemical weapons were stored for use in E Germany but I think they actually did a pretty good job keeping control of them.
> They certainly had trouble keep tract of their nuclear and other serious weapons for a while.
>>
I think that was the nuclear weapons stored in Ukraine at the end of the cold war.
Although in broader terms I don't see that someone has the knowledge and capacity to store this for 30 years and now decided to use it for the first time now.
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Putin has much to gain.
1/ All dictators (and he is one) need a common enemy to focus the people on, a sense of threat, of animosity from without. Bingo he generated one just when he needed it most.
2/ Its a threat to anyone who would turn against the state, you will be avenged.
3/ Its a threat to the west. you are not safe we can reach you - hence the very public displays of force with bombers flying to our coasts.
4/ Gives well with his hardman image. Its funny it happened just as an election came.
Now what do We have to gain? Do you really think the uk could throw nerve gas about within its own borders and not get found out? Whats the payoff?
Anyone else? If it was Al Quaeda they would be boasting about it. It could be Russian mafia, but how did they get the highly secret and denied existence nerve gas?
Come on all you "Its not the Russians" mob, who was it and why?
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I hadn't even really thought about it till yesterday. That phone call from the lady to her cousin, if true, indicates our government and/or press are suppressing info. I notice there has been no denial of it's existence, or of the supposed content, by our government.
I still can't think of anyone other than the Russians who may have done it but then again - we aren't always whiter than white. And we no doubt have rogue operators in our security forces. So, for me, most likely to be the Russians but I wouldn't be entirely surprised if it wasn't them.
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>> I notice
>> there has been no denial of it's existence, or of the supposed content, by our
>> government.
Even the Russian media outlet that aired it warned about its authenticity.
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Yeah but I'd have thought if it was a fake then someone might have said so.
Seems he is now out of danger, in line with what was said in the call, which so good news.
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>> I hadn't even really thought about it till yesterday. That phone call from the lady
>> to her cousin, if true, indicates our government and/or press are suppressing info.
Suppressing? Would it have been for the UK government to say that she had had a call from her cousin or whomever, even if she had?
The cousin has now been refused a visa to visit the UK, according to the BBC because the UK government view is that she (the cousin) is a "pawn" of the Kremlin and so presumably they (The Kremlin) would manufacture propaganda from a visit.
Among the things that Putin has said in the past is that traitors would be dedded .
goo.gl/hwfpjG (Independent 2010).
More recently, amongst the denials, he has said in effect that "we didn't do it, we haven't any nerve agents anyway, and if we had done it with a Soviet-era nerve agent they would have died instantly".
goo.gl/LtUZeQ (Grauniad, 18 March).
I'm sure it suits the Russians very well for potential traitors to believe they will be murdered if they are found out. For that message to be credible, exposed traitors must be knocked off whether or not they have served their time and/or been exchanged. They don't need publicly to claim or admit it was them. It is enough that Putin has said that traitors will, quote, "kick the bucket" and that they all end up dead.
Taking the Occam's razor approach, it was the Russian state behind it.
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Bad choice of words, suppressing.
But the call apparently contained info which apparently wasn't in the public domain at the time e.g. that the fella is recovering well) and I was just mildly surprised that the UK govt had nothing to say about it one way or another.
Last edited by: smokie on Fri 6 Apr 18 at 19:09
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" if we had done it with a Soviet-era nerve agent they would have died instantly"
Amongst the rest of the statements, that one had also occurred to me. Still, perhaps it deteriorates over time. I know nothing about such things or how they work.
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>> " if we had done it with a Soviet-era nerve agent they would have died
>> instantly"
>>
>> Amongst the rest of the statements, that one had also occurred to me. Still, perhaps
>> it deteriorates over time. I know nothing about such things or how they work.
Its designed to be delivered in a widescale fairly indiscriminate way, Ie a complete battlefield, city, etc etc. Targeted to an individual or two I guess its hard to get its toxicity and ingestion right
The fact a soviet nerve agent was used, one that everyone knows they made but denied, is a sufficient message to me, as was polonium. Its also a sufficient message to the rest of the world who would not have accepted the UK's plea "it was the big bad ruskies" at face value. Clearly we are missing a bit that was supplied to all of them.
They have means, method, motive and past history. Course they dun it.
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Aside from the danger, is it difficult to make a nerve agent?
Is it like medicine where if one had the recipe/ingredients then anyone can make it (given, as I say, the lab & facilities).
If so, then is invented / discovered by the Russians necessarily the same as "made by the Russians"?
Not a loaded question, I don't now the answer.
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I don't recommend Googling how to make nerve agents ;-)
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I did exactly that. Dunno why I didn't think of it myself.
Both of the following are very informative. And worth a read, IMO.
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/07/what-do-nerve-agents-do-and-how-hard-are-they-to-make-sergei-skripal
www.acsh.org/news/2017/02/27/how-make-vx-without-killing-yourself-dont-try-home-10908
Essentially, with the recipe any **&"£$* can make any nerve agent though if they don't do it in a lab with the right facilities they will die. The ingredients themselves are Mostly Harmless.
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>> Aside from the danger, is it difficult to make a nerve agent?
>>
...the monks at Buckfast Abbey don't appear to have too much trouble......
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>> >> Aside from the danger, is it difficult to make a nerve agent?
>> >>
>> ...the monks at Buckfast Abbey don't appear to have too much trouble......
Hmmm Buckie, Quite like the stuff.
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>> Aside from the danger, is it difficult to make a nerve agent?
>>
>> Is it like medicine where if one had the recipe/ingredients then anyone can make it
>> (given, as I say, the lab & facilities).
>>
>> If so, then is invented / discovered by the Russians necessarily the same as "made
>> by the Russians"?
>>
>> Not a loaded question, I don't now the answer.
its not difficult theoretical chemistry, its difficult to get it manufactured in bulk without killing everyone, its harder to get it deliverable and logistically usable in the battlefield without killing your own troops handling it, and its difficult to get dispersable at the right time in the right place.
As I said up thread, i'm guessing this is why it didn't work well this time out.
The easiest task is to kill millions in a city by dumping stuff in the water supply, this is one of the security services biggest fears
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>>The easiest task is to kill millions in a city by dumping stuff in the water supply, this is one of the security services biggest fears
I'm not sure how toxic these agents are if you swallow them - it seems either inhaled aerosol or absorption through the skin are the methods of choice.
VX has a lethal dose around 10mg, so to get a concentration likely to prove fatal in a water supply for people washing themselves would take a fair old tanker load.
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www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-44707052
Pair found unconscious in Wiltshire poisoned with same nerve agent as ex-Russian spy Sergei Skripal, police say
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44719639
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Here we go round the same loop again.
In a statement to MPs, Mr Javid said: "It is now time that the Russian state comes forward and explains exactly what has gone on."
Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova urged police not to be led by the "dirty political game" and said she was confident London would have to apologise to Russia.
Ready for another stand up comic performance by Alexander Yakovenko ?
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The lady in this tragic scenario has now passed away sadly.
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I would trust our current government as much as I trust the Russians.
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Not sure they would poison people on purpose tho.
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Ok, the Ruskies have blown it.
Till now they have been using the plausible deniability routine,. Its worked well
Then the video stills and the names appeared.
So what have the Ruskies done?
Found them, put them on TV and concocted the most appalling load of ole pony claiming they were tourists who flew in the UK, went to Salisbury to visit the cathedral for 90 minutes, left because it was snowing, went back the next day to visit again, then went back to london right away and flew home to Russia. Meanwhile on the second trip, CCTV puts them nowhere near the tourist sites, but near the Skripals home.
Their disinformation machine has bucked up badly here.
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Mmm, didn't seem the smartest move, did it.
I had been leaning away from Russia as the culprits until recently. That TV show kind of sorted out my error there.
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Comically bad story, makes you wonder who signed off on this rubbish? I'd expect better from putin's mob.
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Comical performance - claiming friends had told them to visit etc.
Doesn't explain why:
- Their passports have consecutive numbers, i.e. not their real passports and probably not their real names.
- They had plane tickets back from the UK booked and paid for on the Saturday and Sunday and used the first set of tickets
Russia I can only assume they'd keep saying nothing to do with Russia not expecting us to find the two, have details of flights and passports, find the accommodation they stayed in (which had traces of Novichok) and more. So trying to spin it.
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"Comical performance"
Mr Poot had already given us one finger, this one is from the other hand. And we can't do anything about it.
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Maybe they have been set up so that their whole outfit can be purged?
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In many respects the Russian actions are inept. However I wonder if this is by design and they are actually testing our defences in the same way as they regularly fly fighters close to our airspace to test our readiness.
It seems to me that in their murderous actions they have revealed nothing new to us about their real spying techniques but on the other hand have flushed out a great deal of info about our capability to detect and handle nerve agents and to track people. And some UK politicians want us to jointly investigate with the Russians which would reveal even more about our defence capabilities and weaknesses. Unbelievable.
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>> I wonder if this is by
>> design and they are actually testing our defences in the same way as they regularly
>> fly fighters close to our airspace to test our readiness.
>>
>> [they]have flushed out a
>> great deal of info about our capability to detect and handle nerve agents and to
>> track people. And some UK politicians want us to jointly investigate with the Russians which
>> would reveal even more about our defence capabilities and weaknesses. Unbelievable.
Good points. I'm sure HMG has kept plenty under its hat but what has been released must have helped the Russians understand what not to do next time.
It's all rather old-fashioned just the same. If they really want to damage us they are more likely to use FB to create civil unrest or just hack our IT infrastructure.
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There are two possible reasons for this terribly inept response and performance
1/ Panic. Badly underestimated the level of video surveillance in the UK, and the ability to gather it together and recover the information*. Put on the back foot, this was a rushed response.
2/ Ok we have been caught, but So what. Blows raspberry. This is just a response for the home audience*1
* If anyone is in any doubt that the UK is the video surveillance capital of the world, think no more. This brutally demonstrates how much of our daily lives is captured. It also shames the Gov and Police, because it demonstrates that even the smallest crimes and misdemeanours could be solved if sufficient resource was enabled, as it was in this case.
*1 Depends what they wanted the home audience to think. Clearly the RT interviewer thought it was a load of old пони, watch the Kirsty Walk interview with the RT interviewer. So maybe they want the home audience to know they did it.
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>> There are two possible reasons for this terribly inept response and performance
>>
>>
I still say you are assuming that this episode is the work of a single unified, albeit inept organisation. Past Russian history might suggest that there is a vicious power-play behind the scenes, with one faction manoeuvring to outdo another. Setting one up to fail in order to liquidate its boss would be typical.
These two might just be amateur pawns who, amazingly, actually succeeded in their mission.
Or have I read too much John le Carre? :)
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Johnny English would be a better guide than John Le Carre
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>>Johnny English would be a better guide than John Le Carre
Many a true word....
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I suspect that manoeuvring to outdo Putin would be a danger filled and short term endeavour.
In truth it is difficult to understand.
I cannot imagine that Putin, or anybody else, is under any illusions about surveillance in any country.
If someone was trying to cause trouble for Putin, I suspect Russian TV would be showing us pictures of them nailed to a cross, not sitting there maintaining they were tourists.
It may be incompetence. Maybe someone put them on a hit list years ago and some agency decided to work through it's backlog.
I do think Zero made a very valid comment; It just shows you how many crimes could be solved with the right resources, time, energy and authority backed up by the relevant trial and evidence rules.
Whether or not I would want to live in that State is another matter.
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Russia has a single vulnerability with respect to the West and it is financial.
Putin's empire is just as vulnerable to an economic collapse.
If we really wanted to F him up, we'd start another arms race and sanction his country.
Russia's economy is about the same as the UK's - Russia simply can't keep up with a concerted effort from the West, and eventually his people would have enough of worsening living standards.
The big problem is managing to create a concerted effort to put the Russian state under real pressure.
So far we've targeted a few individuals quite ineffectively and appeased his military manoeuvres.
Last edited by: Lygonos on Fri 14 Sep 18 at 17:53
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"I do think Zero made a very valid comment; It just shows you how many crimes could be solved with the right resources, time, energy and authority backed up by the relevant trial and evidence rules.
Whether or not I would want to live in that State is another matter."
Weapon of choice for traffic and parking enforcement in towns and cities in addition to speed scameras :(
Last edited by: Fullchat on Fri 14 Sep 18 at 19:16
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>> Weapon of choice for traffic and parking enforcement in towns and cities in addition to
>> speed scameras :(
because its cheap and easy and its revenue generating. Prosecution of criminality never is, so they dont.
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Ah, apparently the story is rubbish because they are gay. So says the Russian press
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>> It just shows you how many crimes could be solved with the right resources, time,......
>>
Skripal suspect 'real identity revealed'
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45656004
Colonel Anatoliy Chepiga. Well Well
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Colonel Anatoliy Chepiga. Well Well
Don't think he read many Ian Fleming books judging on how many blunders they made...
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>>It shows how many with the right resources...
The Telegraph claims that they identified him with the help of some investigative journalists.
>>Don't think he read many Ian Fleming books judging on how many blunders they made
Unless it was deliberate. Or they didn't care. They were going to be well out of the country before the crime had been discovered.
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>> I do think Zero made a very valid comment; It just shows you how many
>> crimes could be solved with the right resources, time, energy and authority backed up by
>> the relevant trial and evidence rules.
>>
>> Whether or not I would want to live in that State is another matter.
Hands up anybody who hasn't broken a speed limit in the last month.
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I haven’t Not knowingly anyway. If you’re head of an international crime syndicate best not attract attention to yourself..
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>> In many respects the Russian actions are inept. However I wonder if this is by
>> design and they are actually testing our defences in the same way as they regularly
>> fly fighters close to our airspace to test our readiness.
>>
>> It seems to me that in their murderous actions they have revealed nothing new to
>> us about their real spying techniques but on the other hand have flushed out a
>> great deal of info about our capability to detect and handle nerve agents and to
>> track people. And some UK politicians want us to jointly investigate with the Russians which
>> would reveal even more about our defence capabilities and weaknesses. Unbelievable.
>>
>>
>>
>>
Hadn't thought of that at all. These Ruskies are duplicitous!
Anyway, it seems to be kicking off in Salisbury again tonight:
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6173939/Restaurant-Salisbury-sealed-man-woman-fall-ill.html
Last edited by: zippy on Sun 16 Sep 18 at 23:25
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Very good, made me smile anyway.
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Skripal - Zero
