***** This thread is now closed, please CLICK HERE to go to Volume 37 *****
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Continuing debate
Last edited by: VxFan on Thu 28 Jul 16 at 21:22
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Interviewed on R4 this morning about TM's business strategy, he threw in the conditional, "If we leave the European Union..." That makes him the most senior parliamentarian yet I've heard not to toe the 'respect the democratic result' line.
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"... he threw in the conditional, "If we leave the European Union..." That makes him the most senior parliamentarian yet I've heard not to toe the 'respect the democratic result' line."
His boss is saying, "Now, more than ever, we need to work together, to deliver on Brexit..." I reckon she's a more senior parliamentarian than him.
I would be wary of clutching at straws.
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>>His boss is saying....
You do know Vince Cable is Lib Dem?
>>That makes him the most senior parliamentarian
I thought he lost his seat last year
Last edited by: Lygonos on Wed 13 Jul 16 at 09:23
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>> His boss is saying....
>> You do know Vince Cable is Lib Dem?
>>
>>That makes him the most senior parliamentarian
>> I thought he lost his seat last year
>>
Two in one go - impressive, nice one Doc!
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Yes, sorry - sloppy terminology from me. I'd somehow imagined he must be in the House of Lords by now.
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Just catching up on reading now we're back...things have moved on since this was written a couple of weeks ago, but I thought it was an interesting perspective on things. I'm not a regular reader of it, but one benefit of airline lounges ismthe random selection of publications to read!
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/07/strange-death-liberal-politics
And apologies ifs it's already been posted...
Last edited by: PeterS on Sat 16 Jul 16 at 08:56
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You don't get that kind of reading matter lying around on the floor in the departure lounge at Leeds Bradford waiting for your Jet2 flight.....
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Ah yes... Yorkshire Airlines... Departing Leeds airstrip, and arriving 20 minutes later at Leeds airstrip. Because if it's outside Yorkshire, it's not worth b***** visiting ;)
youtu.be/6VLYpKGVBUg
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Still one of my favourite Hale & Pace sketches
Loved the whippet, tureen of peas, AB class ... Nice bloke AB, used to be a customer in a shop where I worked. Friendly enough chap.
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You'll find it on Eurostar, though. That's where I read that - although Gray's is a minority view among NS contributors.
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Just pulling a few things together for a European bike trip next week. No GB sticker required as the EU symbol is on number plate. Driving licence is valid in EU countries as they have been harmonised. Insurance valid in EU countries for up to 90 days. Oh dear oh dear.
Lot of work to be done.
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I know you are making another point, but do you bother with a green Card (or at least inform your ins co that you're going abroad, so they can charge you a bit extra?)
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No requirement for Green Card in EU countries. Green Card agreement is overseen by EEA in Geneva including countries outside EU such as Morocco.
Drivers outside Green card agreement have to purchase insurance once entering areas part of the agreement.
Insurance should cover EU countries as a standard requirement but it seems Insurance Companies put a restriction on it.
Last edited by: Fullchat on Sat 16 Jul 16 at 19:40
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>> Insurance should cover EU countries as a standard requirement but it seems Insurance Companies put a restriction on it.
>>
There is an EU requirement that any motor insurance should cover the minimum legal requirement in all EU countries.
In most circumstances this will mean you are covered 365 days of the year out of the UK, but in the EU, for something akin to 3rd party risk, but unless you pay for it, you will not be covered for anything more, including all those risks which are covered on a comprehensive insurance in the UK, such as damage to your own vehicle.
These "non-minimum" risks can, of course, be covered in the EU for various periods as defined by your insurer, usually on payment of an additional fee.
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Just pulling a few things together for a European bike trip next week. No GB sticker required as the EU symbol is on number plate. Driving licence is valid in EU countries as they have been harmonised. Insurance valid in EU countries for up to 90 days. Oh dear oh dear.
Some insurers cover abroad for longer, policies differ. As for driving licences, almost harmonised is better way of putting it. Pass a car test now, and if you are over 21, you could drive my trike (not that I'm lending it) but that only applies in the UK. Any EU countries (there are quite a few) that have not used the derogation the licence is invalid, one needs a full motor bike licence (despite my trike having car type controls and occupying the same space as a small car). Pass your test before 19 Jan 2013 and you can drive it, a grandfathered group A with note 79 (full motor bike - limited to trikes) is on your licence.
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Almost harmonised is correct of course. I believe you can ride a moped at 15 in France for example.
The 'harmonisation', introduced the Quadricycle which allowed 16 year old to drive something akin to a car like the Aixam.
www.aixam.com/en/
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Although I Voted Remain in the Brexit vote I do believe we can make a success of Brexit.
Todays unemployment rate has fallen to 4.9%.
More good news for the UK economy.
All this despite what the Brexit vote will do for the UK economy.
I have no doubt we will have a booming economy in a few years time.
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You trying to start a fight?
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I see Theresa May is having tea and cakes with Angela Merkel.
Your call, May.
"I have in my hands a piece of paper..."
OR
"We shall fight them on the beaches."
The choice is yours.
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Fighting them on the beaches might be close to the truth when the border is moved back from France.
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The border will move from Calais to Dover.
I have no doubt.
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Ok, so heavy machine guns along the coast, then?
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When? Why would the border move?
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Well, with May and Hammond in charge, this can only go well.
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Clarkson not helping out?
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BoJo beat him to the Foreign Secretary's job.
Apparently Duke of Edinburgh wanted it, but was considered too old.
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I cannot see the French policing the migrant camps in Calais.
Because the vast majority of migrants in these camps want to come to live in the UK.
Why should the French police police the migrants in Calais.
The migrants might as well come on ferries in to Dover and camp in Dover and not Calais.
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Lord help them if they land in Hull
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>>I cannot see the French policing the migrant camps in Calais.>>
The French have said they will abide by the current arrangement.
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Why the newspapers are still full of Labour party fiasco?
Why does Labour party still matter?
Most electorates (that includes me) will struggle to tell differences between Labour and Conservatives.
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Most electorates (that includes me) will struggle to tell differences between Labour and Conservatives.
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Even with corbyn in charge?
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>>Even with corbyn in charge? >>
In case you haven't noticed, Corbyn ISN'T in charge...:-) :-)
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Some 'electorates' struggle to tell gluteus maximus from humeroulnar articulation.
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...in this context, that's simply a side-effect of craniorectal inversion.........
;-)
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I would have substituted "insertion" for inversion! ;-)
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Movilogo posted......
>> Why the newspapers are still full of Labour party fiasco?
>>
>> Why does Labour party still matter?
>>
>> Most electorates (that includes me) will struggle to tell differences between Labour and Conservatives.
>>
Have we discovered the truth at last? Are you sure you are posting under the correct user name?
PS I claim my £5 if proved to be correct :)
Last edited by: sherlock47 on Thu 21 Jul 16 at 15:41
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Just not a very appealing one. Cliff's mate Allister Heath reveals his post-EU vision of unrestricted capitalism, torn-up 'red tape', turning over education to the capitalists with ubiquitous free schools teaching please-yourself garbage and, implicitly, a winding back of most of the social progress of the post-Thatcher era. I expect his colleague Simon Heffer would approve. I don't.
That's our way to his brighter future, apparently. Those of us who disagree are 'deranged'.
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/20/britain-needs-a-can-do-attitude-revolution-with-solutions-rather/
You'll notice he mentions allowing 'tech firms' to recruit 'skilled migrant talent'. No mention of who's going to bag the salads and do all the little jobs his unfettered capitalists will need to fill once the red tape has gone.
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>> No mention of who's going to bag the salads and do all the little jobs his unfettered capitalists will need to fill once the red tape has gone<<
Hopefully a good government will see that the lazy, idle long term English unemployed (specially in Fenland) have no choice but to do them.
Having turned down countless better jobs for years and still been able to stay on benefits, it's no more than they deserve.
Pat
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But who would you have to look down on then?
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Exactly the same as you WdeB, anyone I consider to be inferior to me......
....but I treat all equally if they have my respect.
Shirkers and benefit scroungers don't, but then again neither do people who consider themselves better than others either.
If the cap fits...
Pat
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Has a date been set for when the remains stop whining, or is it just going to peter out gradually?
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Leavers have been whinging since 1973, so I think it'll be some time yet!
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They've been remarkably quiet this last couple of weeks R O'R:)
But then the world hasn't come to an end, business hasn't all departed our shores, unemployment is down and even the pound hasn't crashed!
...and the rest of the world wants to trade with us.
Perhaps they would like to admit they were scaremongering?
Oh wait, they can't be wrong, can they?
Pat
Last edited by: Pat on Thu 21 Jul 16 at 17:32
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Let them Remain in their own little world, all 48 per cent of them.
Hopefully they May now get the message.
Last edited by: Stuartli on Thu 21 Jul 16 at 17:46
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>> Oh wait, they can't be wrong, can they?
>>
>> Pat
>>
Whilst it's true that some prophecies were a perhaps a tad Cassandric, Pat, and also, of course, any prophecy, given enough time, will come true, even if it takes many years - it's a bit too soon to draw conclusions, I think. For me, anyway.
I went with remain, more through head than heart, although my heart ones were ridiculous enough even to me (mostly seemed to revolve around postmen on bicycles and cheery vicars waving from thatched cottage windows) to outvote myself, if you see what I mean. Having said that, we are where we are, as they say, I don't think there's much of a prospect of going back, so at this stage we have to make the jolly best of it. I'd like to think we've always been not too bad at that, at least.
I'd rather we put time and effort into nurturing new links with whoever is appropriate now (Scandinavia? Australia?) than put the same effort in trying to go backwards.
And I'm certainly not on board with recriminations, told you so, or patronising on either side.
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>>And I'm certainly not on board with recriminations, told you so, or patronising on either side. <<
It wasn't aimed at you Crankcase, and I think you're views are just what most of the Remainers are feeling now. (and it's just what we need)
It was aimed at the two or three who bombarded this forum in the days after Brexit with vitriol and derision to anyone who voted to leave, even to the point of hoping ill befalls them and their families.
That is not nice, and was the cause of us all, one by one, opting out of the thread altogether.
It's a telling tale when some have still not returned to post, isn't it?
Pat
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No. There's not been so much to discuss the last couple of weeks, most of the attention being focused on the one-and-a-half leadership campaigns that have been going on.
The problems caused by the referendum result haven't gone away - the indications are that confidence in the UK economy is down by about 10 percent since a month ago - nor have the Leave campaign's statements got any more true. We're no closer to having any kind of plan. It's just that not much has moved recently, so there's less to stimulate debate here.
We have not gone away. We are neither deranged nor deluded. We have - being mostly of working age - been quietly getting on with our jobs (you wouldn't want us scrounging benefits now, would you?) In fact, between us we're probably doing more to try to right the economic wrong of the Leave vote than all the Leave voters here combined.
The political wrong is a different matter. But you can't lose - sorely or otherwise - a game whose rules were never defined. It ain't over yet.
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Without being provocative, WDB, where do you get the 10% from? There might be lots of indexes down, (or up) and there might be a reduction of credit rating, and there might be all sorts of other things, but how do you quantify that melange to 10%, or 5% or even up 10%?
Or is there a confidence scale published somewhere? I ask genuinely, not being a political animal.
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There are multiple sources, Cranks, but this article from last week in a paper whose editorial line was pro-Leave takes a good survey of them.
www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/12/we-mustnt-rain-on-the-leavers-parade-but-its-a-disquieting-outlo/
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Ok, thanks for the source Wil. A very unscientific Google yields a split on "good / bad" stories at perhaps 80/20 bad. However, bad news sells, so that has to be a factor too. so I guess your 10% is another's 20% and someone else's 10% the other way.
The only reason I think that matters in this context is that numbers carry a power, and if you use them I think you have to be sure of them. A bit like thinking a digital thermometer is somehow more accurate than an analogue one because of the display, if you see what I mean.
I'm not qualified (or frankly interested enough) to even attempt to refine your number, which might be spot on for all I know, but I'm not convinced you can say much more than "generally, most in the media and business are not being very positive at this moment". It's just not a quantative measure.
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>> It's a telling tale when some have still not returned to post, isn't it?
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>> Pat
>>
They are busy planning the WW3 that we were told to expect. :-)
Last edited by: Old Sundodger on Thu 21 Jul 16 at 19:14
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WdB says:
"In fact, between us we're probably doing more to try to right the economic wrong of the Leave vote than all the Leave voters here combined. "
and I said Iwouldn't contribute to this argument anymore, but for heaven's sake I just can't ignore that arrogant superior twaddle peddled by this particular sore loser.
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Meaning what, DE? My apologies if you've concluded a trade agreement with Ukraine while I've been busy winning business in Germany.
Last edited by: WillDeBeest on Thu 21 Jul 16 at 19:37
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The leavers don't grasp that the UK hasn't left the EU yet. And until the terms are known, and the Government formally quits, we are in a phoney war situation. I think May is exercising a good old tactic. Masterly inactivity.
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Excellent tactic
Mirroring my last eleven days in Turkey
Copy cat...
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Brave chap. I'd have skedaddled long ago…..
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WdB:
"Meaning what, DE? My apologies if you've concluded a trade agreement with Ukraine while I've been busy winning business in Germany. "
I'm not going to argue with an an obsessed moron whose blinded by a misguided sense of rightousness and self belief.
I'm sorry I returned - I'm out of here . . . . . again.
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>> I'm not going to argue with an an obsessed moron whose blinded by a misguided sense of
>> rightousness and self belief.
Are you referring to yourself?
Anyway if you're leaving, some more good news from BREXIT :-)
Last edited by: rtj70 on Thu 21 Jul 16 at 22:45
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Good Glub there are some bitter individuals on here.
Will you please stop the abuse and grow up, it's neither necessary nor clever.
Last edited by: smokie on Fri 22 Jul 16 at 07:26
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It had gone quiet because after a quick Conservative PM replacement being put in place, it's apparent that not a lot will change apart from uncertainty. Then the leavers started claiming low unemployment figures from before the referendum was some sort of positive for BREXIT.
Pat was probably right when she said lets revisit in 5 years time. Oh hang on it was her referring to some of the things that haven't gone negative yet.
So perhaps we should all shut up for now.
Won't go into the Republic of Ireland/NI issues for sure.
Last edited by: smokie on Fri 22 Jul 16 at 07:26
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>So perhaps we should all shut up for now.
Absolutely not.
The subject is well worth discussion. What I'm asking is that the name-calling and abuse stops on both sides.
Last edited by: smokie on Fri 22 Jul 16 at 07:26
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>> WdB says:
>>
>> "In fact, between us we're probably doing more to try to right the economic wrong
>> of the Leave vote than all the Leave voters here combined. "
>>
That translates to "I am going to continue lining my pockets and stuff the rest of you."
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There are always those who firmly declare their belief in democracy until, or unless, it doesn't suit their agenda.
Step forward those Remainers who recognise themselves.
Probably among those demanding a second referendum (or more if necessary) until they hopefully end up with the result they want.
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Probably among those demanding a second referendum (or more if necessary) until they hopefully end
>> up with the result they want.
>>
I think that (if it was ever there) window of opportunity has closed.
Alan Johnson was on the news talking about parliament blocking the UK leaving the EU. His view was that even if there was a vote they would have no option but to support the result from the referendum. He said he'd heard no talk of blocking the leave vote and thought it a none starter.
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Having had several pre alcohol conversations with both Dutch, American & Canadians at my current repose, the consensus seems to be that it will be a decade before anyone can say whether the vote went the right, or wrong, way.
At the moment we haven't a clue what degree of recession we may have to endure in the short term. If we have to endure it at all. Falling property prices, volatile exchange rates. Good for some. Bad for others. Same old, same old
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>> There are always those who firmly declare their belief in democracy until, or unless, it
>> doesn't suit their agenda.
>>
There have been in my view three significant moments since the war when the British electorate have perhaps unexpectedly instinctively done the right thing:
Voting for Brexit,
Electing Margaret Thatcher
Electing a Labour government in 1945.
There have been other lesser moments, some right, some wrong.
But I do confess a warmer feeling for democracy when its results coincide with my own views. :)
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So if I point out the damage I'm 'talking the country down' and if I work to repair it I'm 'lining my own pockets?
Unbelievable! Even Pat hasn't come up with anything that halfwitted.
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Halfwitted, lol scary! Could you specify the damage you are repairing?
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The 23 June is to the left side of these graphs.
£ to $ www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=1M
£ to € www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR&view=1M
Pat, even you have to admit sterling's dipped a little... :-)
We will never know whether it was the right decision but the other factors you mentioned won't happen overnight and certainly cannot be smugly written off as non-events just yet. Once BREXIT is complete, let's have a look how it is then.
(I think you'll also find that most people have realised that, in practice, many of the things you'd hoped for can't happen anyway, not to the extremes which many Leavers wanted. It's going to be a compromise)
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>>Pat, even you have to admit sterling's dipped a little... :-)<<
I may well be half witted, but even I realise, as do you, that isn't necessarily a bad thing for everyone.
Reading this thread this morning, I cannot understand why the Remainers can't make their point without a 'put down' personal remark to anyone who may not agree with them.
Does their argument lack substance without the insults?
Pat
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Could you specify the damage you are repairing?
Have you been dodging the sun under a rock for the last four weeks? Try coming out for long enough to read a newspaper - preferably more than one. That should give you the idea that the UK has suddenly become a much less attractive place to do business.
Never mind the result, Remainers put out comprehensive information about the likely dangers of a Leave vote for months before it happened. Now it's happened and we've been proved right, it's up to those of us who do international business from the UK to try to rescue the rest of the country, because Wetherspoons ain't going to do that. If that's lining my own pockets and stuff the rest of you, remind me of that as you collect the pension my taxes pay for. In the meantime, if you've got a better idea of what I should be doing - or even an indication of what you're doing - I'm all ears.
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>>Have you been dodging the sun under a rock for the last four weeks? Try coming out for long enough to read a newspaper - preferably more than one. That should give you the idea that the UK has suddenly become a much less attractive place to do business.>>
You are deluding yourself because of pre-conceived ideas of what the outcome would be with a Leave vote.
In fact the earth hasn't stopped revolving, everything apart from a short term dip in the value of the £ against the Euro is still in place (we are still very much members of the EU for some time yet) and, from now on, the world is our oyster.
We've all paid our taxes over the years to provide for our pensions, plus rather a lot of other benefits that you clearly still very much enjoy and, in fact, all you are doing is maintaining that spirit of helping those who follow you to enjoy similar or even superior rewards for turning up for work over the years.
There was, in fact, a 3M plus petition demanding a second referendum (the Remain didn't like having their noses put out of joint) but, thankfully, it was rejected, and even more so in view of the fact that most of those who signed it were revealed to be shysters.
All I can say is that thank goodness that Jeremy Corbyn and Labour wasn't in power in view of the result - we'd probably be heading to become a banana republic by now. That was the way the UK was heading before Margaret Thatcher became PM and she turned it round from the mess the previous Labour government had left us in (Winter of Discontent, inflation at 26.9 per cent in 1976 etc),,,:-)
Last edited by: Stuartli on Fri 22 Jul 16 at 00:42
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>> There was, in fact, a 3M plus petition demanding a second referendum
Think you'll find that petition pre-dated the vote and was started by someone supporting leave. It has hijacked.
I'm thankful we have May and not Corbyn in charge. So must Westpig? Where is he? Maybe he works for his wife now in the pre-school/primary school business his wife runs? He shutdown is car dealing business I understand.
Last edited by: rtj70 on Fri 22 Jul 16 at 01:44
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>> He shutdown is car dealing business I understand.
HIS even. It was before BREXIT so he's doing okay.
Last edited by: rtj70 on Fri 22 Jul 16 at 01:52
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Good evening, was it, Stuart? What you write is usually pretty coherent, so I'm imagining a fair few empties on the table before you wrote that lot.
Deluded? Preconceived ideas? We warned, yes, and now it's happening. What's the delusion?
Today's pensions, as I'm sure you know, are paid out of today's taxes, and are a heavier burden than they've ever been before. (Even the mythical £350m a week is trivial by comparison.) If taking in workers from other countries isn't going to be allowed - as you Leavers convinced people to vote for, whether or not you will actually deliver it - and we're not producing enough indigenous workers, then it can only mean those of us paying tax today will have to work longer and pay more. Looks like another example of your generation taking the benefit and leaving mine, and those younger than me, with the bill.
As for your dismissal of the economic indicators, the fall of the pound against the dollar is a pretty clear indication of the world's view of the strength and value of the UK economy. It offers some fortuitous help to UK exporters who don't also have to import materials, but it's generally a sign of weakness. The world still thinks we've made a bad decision.
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>> Good evening, was it, Stuart? What you write is usually pretty coherent, so I'm imagining
>> a fair few empties on the table before you wrote that lot.
>>
I posted this >> I cannot understand why the Remainers can't make their point without a 'put down' personal remark to anyone who may not agree with them.<<
I rest my case.
Care to explain WdeB?
Or do you prefer to ignore the too difficult questions?
Pat
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Explain what? That I found Stuart's argument poorly expressed, poorly reasoned and short of accurate facts?
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You know exactly what I mean so we can only assume it is too difficult for you to explain.
Pat
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Give it a rest, Pat. This forum doesn't need you as self-appointed moral guardian. People here are adults, express their own opinions and should be prepared to defend them against challengers. I've certainly done that with mine, and I'm sure Stuart will be capable of standing up for himself - after an Alka-Seltzer or two.
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>>Give it a rest, Pat. <<
I'm expressing an opinion and asking you to defend it, but you have no rational explanation for that.
I'm also capable of standing up for myself and have every right to do that on here as you do.
So.....I'll give it a rest when I'm good and ready, not when I'm told to by anyone who can't explain their own actions.
Pat
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>>I've certainly done that with mine, and I'm sure Stuart will be capable of standing up for himself - after an Alka-Seltzer or two. >>
I find that remark completely out of order and quite unnecessary. I have never needed to take Alka Seltzer or similar products in my (long) life for the reason you mistakenly imply.
As I said, the Remain capm never thought or considered that they might lose and many have since expressed their disbelief that we failed to take their advice seriously.
I spent many weeks wondering which way to vote (and that included listening to the views of a close friend who has a business with a £100M plus annual turnover here and abroad), but eventually decided to vote Leave. Immigration played a very small part in that decision (most of us can trace family history back to being descendants of immigrants), but a lot of it was down to believing that the EU had too much control over our lives, as well as being headed by a handful of unelected key individuals.
There have also been publicised examples of corruption, which were supposed to have been investigated quite some years ago. But we all know who failed to really tackle that issue even though formally commissioned to do so.....:-)
The initial reaction of those such as Juncker after the Brexit vote was confirmed says all we need to know about what many in power in Europe think of the UK, even though some state leaders are now appearing to offer a more conciliatory attitude.
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"As I said, the Remain camp never thought or considered that they might lose and many have since expressed their disbelief that we failed to take their advice seriously.?"
The Leave camp didn't expect to win and re now intellectually exhausted faced with hard reality. They wanted change, so the onus is on them to plan for change.
Strange days, when the leaders of the Leave campaign go awol. Their fan boys are relying on emotion and "belief" when what is required is a plan. Micawberish principles are not good enough.
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>> The Leave camp ... is now intellectually exhausted.
As evidenced by what? What exactly is it that you expect? For them to humour you with all their best ideas for bargaining with the EU?
>>faced with hard reality.
Meaningless phrase. We are all faced with reality. It would be just as valid for me to suggest that a large number of advocates for remaining are stuck in denial.
>>They wanted change, so the onus is on them to plan for change.
The responsibility for governing the country is exactly where it was before, with the same machinery of the state that called a referendum. Some of the people have changed in consequence of the result. Your frame of reference is a model of the world that enables you to blame "somebody" for something you don't like.
>> Strange days, when the leaders of the Leave campaign go awol.
You need to be more specific - who, how, and what should they be doing that they aren't?
>> Their fan boys
Should I call you a Remain fan boy? No, that would just be silly.
Without personalising this, much of the venom from those who cannot accept the opposite point of view seems not to be accompanied by substance.
Simple intolerance of those with a different opinion is the literal definition of bigotry, the crime that bilious Remainers love to accuse Leavers of.
>> relying on emotion and "belief" when what is required is a plan.
I have answered this logical fallacy previously - engagement came there none, and the same people are still banging the same drum.
As you must know, a 'plan' is not the starting point for dealing with any problem or the position delivered to us by the referendum result.
What has commonly been characterised as the status quo / no-change position in the EU was potentially just as volatile and held considerable risks and challenges. Many of the risk factors are the same as they were before.
Dealing with shifting political, social, economic and regulatory sands is a process, not an event; a constant and overlapping many-stranded cycle of identifying the issues, understanding the factors at play, defining and developing aims and criteria for success, distilling those into tangible objectives, finding options for achieving those targets, constantly evaluating, developing and selectively following up those options, creating and iterating many plans, managing the responsibilities and actions - again and again. All of that must happen in or out of the EU. The 'plan' the process, goes on - the only constant is change.
>>Micawberish principles are
>> not good enough.
Another possibly fallacious premise presented as fact. Excessive optimism is not required in order to think that Brexit does not equal economic disaster.
You don't have to look very hard to see that many commentators, and the IMF, considered sterling to be significantly overvalued in 2014 and 2015 before the referendum result 'caused' a devaluation.
www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/12065157/Pound-is-most-overvalued-currency-in-the-world-analysts-claim.html
www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/sterling-overvalued-10-15-vince-cable/
next.ft.com/content/ec6bef86-1653-11e4-8210-00144feabdc0
If there is optimism in the Brexit lobby that is unwarranted, it is at least matched by the pessimism of the career doom-mongers of the fourth estate, fed enthusiastically by those who have not yet assimilated the result of the referendum.
It is not unreasonable to think that this is part of the problem The PMI index released this week is a measure of sentiment, and must reflect this barrage of negativity.
The appropriate mindset here is to find the opportunities. Smart people are already doing that. Arguments about which side lied the most are redundant.
Circumspection is of course sensible for those "awol" leave campaigners who are now Foreign Secretary, Minister for Exiting the EU, and Secretary of State for International Trade for example. They would be very foolish indeed to reveal their strategy to you or anybody else not bound to secrecy.
There is no denying that they have some hard work ahead. The newly beatified Theresa May will be doing some fancy footwork to maximise her chances of taking credit for their successes and avoiding blame for their failures.
France and Germany are both determined that UK will not "profit" from Brexit, but that sort of statement belies the assumption that there is no leverage.
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Re PMI. I doubt the markets are listening to forum opinions. They have their own measures.
As for devaluation, there is no doubt sterling was considered overvalued, but the markets are now imposing a forced revaluation and there is no UK control of that. Notwithstanding, the potential outcomes of exit have not been quantified. The referendum was naively offered and its effects are yet to be realised. Not a good policy, to launch into the unknown without a pilot.
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>> Re PMI. I doubt the markets are listening to forum opinions.
Nothing to do with forum opinions, why would it?
But company managers are reading the same prognostications of doom manufactured for the media that ignorant forumers and facebookers are regurgitating without understanding. Any tendency for that to make those managers more cautious and to tighten up on cash, with a subsequent reduction in orders and stock, will move the PMI.
>>the markets are now imposing a forced revaluation and there is no UK control of that
There's as much control as there was before. Had there been any, other than to raise rates and further to increase them, the currency would have been lower before the referendum.
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>> People here are adults
Sometimes, the way they behave, I beg to differ.
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Come on Stuartli.I remember the winter of discontent.I also remember under a Tory government we went bankrupt and the I.M.F.had to step in.
She did good things Maggie but also divided the Nation in such a way that some areas never recovered.
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>> Come on Stuartli.I remember the winter of discontent.I also remember under a Tory government we went bankrupt and the I.M.F.had to step in.
>>
>> She did good things Maggie but also divided the Nation in such a way that
>> some areas never recovered.
>>
Aren't memories funny things. I'm not old enough to remember a Tory government calling in the IMF though I can remember a Labour one doing it
Maggie Thatcher was no saint but she did turn the economy round in the 80s and moved the industrial path of the country forward away from some sectors who had no real future.
Does anybody really think that in the modern, health and safety, climate conscious world, we would or even should, still have a coal industry?
You may not like the way she did some things but they needed to be done, and would have been done later by someone else anyway.
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>> Come on Stuartli.I remember the winter of discontent.I also remember under a Tory government we went bankrupt and the I.M.F.had to step in.>>
Are you perhaps confusing this type of "loan" in the case of the Tories?
www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17794990
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>>it's up to those of us who do international business from the UK to try to rescue the rest of the country
Does your business depend on imports to produce exports, WillDeBeest? If so, a 10% fall in the £ must help a lot.
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No, it's not a manufacturer. But free movement of people, equipment and services are hugely beneficial.
But as I've stated many times before, the lower pound reflects a weaker UK economy, and my concern isn't specific to the business I work in but for the economy as a whole. I mention my work because it's the only means I have to contribute to mitigating the situation.
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>>But free movement of people, equipment and services are hugely beneficial.>>
We are still in the EU. Nothing has changed (other than the vote) for the moment and it will be some considerable time before it does so.
Do you seriously think that European countries would impede these key factors to any real extent when dealing with the UK after then? It would be in neither's interest.
The German motor industry, for example, exports billions of pounds worth of cars and commercial vehicles to the UK annually - it won't just cast that aside, but will certainly want to retain as much if not all of that trade.
Someone has mentioned a loan from the IMF. The Labour government acquired this in late 1976, the sum being $3.9M, although in the end the full amount was not taken up. At that time, incidentally, inflation stood at 26.9 per cent.
Last edited by: Stuartli on Fri 22 Jul 16 at 12:17
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>> Someone has mentioned a loan from the IMF. The Labour government acquired this in late
>> 1976, the sum being $3.9M, although in the end the full amount was not taken
>> up. At that time, incidentally, inflation stood at 26.9 per cent.
>>
Think you will find it was billions rather than millions :-)
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>>Think you will find it was billions rather than millions :-) >>
Yes, quite correct! Thanks.
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The new uses "Purchasing Manager's Index" - something which I never came across before. Don't remember seeing it being used to measure economic growth in the past.
Couldn't understand how it works. It says index falling below 50 is contraction. So, 49.9 is contraction where as 50.1 is growth.
We have not actually left EU. In fact, nothing really changed. So why still a all these doom and gloom forecast.
The FTSE recovered, £ has recovered as well. No big shock anywhere either.
The blip in economy is because of some people withholding purchases (be it a house purchase or buying another company) which makes less money circulated in economy.
Until we have spent few years outside EU, no one can really say whether leaving EU is good or bad.
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>> The new uses "Purchasing Manager's Index" - something which I never came across before. Don't
We are seeing a significant reduction in turnover across most of our clients compared to the same period last year. Levels of borrowing are up against assets. Cash flow is drying up.
Brexit may not be the cause but it is clear that at the moment many businesses are stalling.
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I'm a bit bemused that your economic knowledge enables you to determine that the reasons for the "blip in the economy" yet you've never even heard of the purchasing managers index. (Which is, btw, regularly reported in in the Beeb business sections, details here www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pmi.asp )
Regarding sterling, I posted a link yesterday which showed a rather sick pound. It seems to have got worse today.
If I was you I'd do a bit more reading and come back to update your post once you've skimmed through the stuff here movi.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-36812583
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I have now read about Purchase Manager Index thing. Still not understood it entirely.
However, the graph did show that it started to dip before Brexit. Also, since there is a lag of how PMI reflects prior months (it is just a month following Brexit) it does not really indicate the blip is because of Brexit alone.
If the graph was going up and suddenly fell after Brexit then we could have said it is Brexit to blame.
static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/styles/story_medium/public/thumbnails/image/2016/07/22/12/pmis_all.jpg
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Whatever the cause it's a gloomy picture. You interpret it how you want, just as the rest will. Bear in mind that lots of stuff was fairly volatile immediately before Brexit due to the uncertainty of the way the vote would go. So it's fair to say some indices could have been on a high immediately before (I mean immediately, like one day) and some on a low. Hard to tell what to take as a reasonable starting point really, so just looking at a shape is probably best
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>>
>> it's up to those of us who do international business from the UK to try
>> to rescue the rest of the country,
>>
You are taking too much upon yourself.
Individual businesses exist to pursue their own best interests, acting reasonably and within the law, etc etc.
They have to be adaptable and alive to changing circumstances, exploiting market advantages and openings, recognising adverse changes and acting accordingly. Then if they judge things correctly they are free to make whatever profits they like, pay their employees, pay their taxes, etc.
But when they start assuming the role of self-appointed moral and economic crusaders I start to get wary.
Brexit will give challenging opportunities, and I am more impressed by those ready to exploit them than by those still fighting yesterday's battles.
This may not be you personally of course, but your choice of words does suggest that a little.
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>> Has a date been set for when the remains stop whining, or is it just
>> going to peter out gradually?
>>
No, some will go on for ever.
It will be like old men in clubs, still misty-eyed over having lost India decades ago.
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....I rather thought that underpinned the "Leaver's" resolve.
;-)
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We seem to have a few arrogant, pushy businessmen here. I wonder if they are the same ones we see on the road flouting the law because they are too important for mere plebs to hinder their progress.
Last edited by: Old Sundodger on Fri 22 Jul 16 at 08:53
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The game is not worth the candle.
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It is not a game do.Jobs are at stake and we need politicians and businessman who know what they are doing.
I just have a gut feeling dealing with the Chinese they string you along and see how far you stretch.
Deals outside the E.U don't look to me that easy to achieve me thinks.
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Boris and Co diplomatic foray outside the EU is made more difficult, when countries exploited by UK colonial actions and attitudes recall their hard times. Canny, ruthless businessmen, like the Chinese and Americans, will wait until they see the EU reaction and play hardball. Australian and Canadian friends? Not where money is involved. Remember Lease/Lend?
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>>Remember Lease/Lend?
No, but I remember Lend-Lease.
:}
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>> It is not a game do.
Link thing:-
tinyurl.com/jkbllnx
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>> I wonder if they are the same ones we see on the road flouting the law because they are too important for mere plebs to hinder their progress.
Do you mean people who despise the ludicrously low speed limits in this country and get irritated by mimsing processions at well below those limits led by people like you ON?
I have a horrible feeling you do. Tsk.
:o}
Last edited by: Armel Coussine on Fri 22 Jul 16 at 18:51
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>> I have a horrible feeling you do. Tsk.
>>
>> :o}
>>
OK I'll bite, I have never been accused of holding up the traffic. It's all about situational awareness, last Sunday morning returning from London on an almost empty northern M6 I saw a big Mercedes people carrier catching up on me very rapidly, I was on cruise control at somewhere near the speed limit. I was in lane 1 the car in lane two some distance ahead was obviously surprised at being overtaken at 100+ mph and swerved sharply into the empty lane one and almost made the hard shoulder. I am sure he had no idea what was going on behind him or in the adjacent lanes.
Last edited by: Old Sundodger on Fri 22 Jul 16 at 19:09
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Car in lane 2 sounds a right menace ON. There are a lot like that though.
(I don't really think you're a mimser, and I don't doubt you know what's going on all around you. Just teasing).
No doubt you saw the photo of the submarine with the dented conning tower. Will the skipper be keel-hauled? I feel his salary may not cover the damage.
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His salary wouldn't cover the repairs to the device hidden under the blue cover on the fwd casing which has had its height reduced somewhat, let alone the fin and the retractable masts and periscopes it contains.
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I am glad my satnav knows where these are. :-)
www.speedcamerasuk.com/hadecs-3.htm
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Indeed. That was the sort of thing I meant.
Perhaps he'll be sent before the mast to sample the life of a simple matelot.
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Not!
"The liberal hysteria over Brexit shows exactly why we need to leave"
"For good reason numerous voters have lost patience with an EU project which is now working well only in the heads of its apologists"
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/22/the-liberal-hysteria-over-brexit-shows-exactly-why-we-need-to-le/
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Vince Cable: "If we leave..." - WillDeBeest
