***** This thread is now closed, please CLICK HERE to go to Volume 4 *****
A lighter view of potentials solutions
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33326534, including
"Apple's €217 billion cash hoard could put a pretty large dent in Greece's debt, but the tech giant is not in the market for a country, said CEO Tim Cook"
"Step in plucky Londoner Thom Feeney, who set up a crowdfunding page asking all of Europe to have a look down the back of the sofa"
Made me smile anyway...
444322
Last edited by: VxFan on Tue 7 Jul 15 at 10:37
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What an enormous can of worms you're opening.
"I don't see why it all really matters. The Greeks will simply default, re-introduce the drachma, and start again."
If only it were that simple. The implications for the eurozone, for the rest of Europe, and for the EU project are enormous.
The reason millions of euros were poured in without a realistic expectation of repayment shows how desperate the movers and shakers of the EU project are to keep the whole thing on the rails. It also illustrates how fragile the project is, unless, or until, it can achieve such alignment between states that in effect Europe becomes a federation.
"The real crunch will come when the Greeks have to start managing their economy properly, ie collecting taxes rather than just printing drachmas."
The real crunch, for the Greek people, is here already. No fuel in filling stations, people queuing for cash, pensions not paid - that's just the start. And as for collecting taxes, Greece has a huge and shocking reputation for failing to collect tax - one of their national pastimes is tax evasion.
If/when Greece is out of the euro (and out of the EU? - not the same thing) they will have no-one else to blame. Either they will have to get their finances in order or become a failed state that other countries will shun as far as meaningful financial interactions are concerned.
Last edited by: Observer on Tue 30 Jun 15 at 09:48
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>>
>>
>> The reason millions of euros were poured in without a realistic expectation of repayment shows
>> how desperate the movers and shakers of the EU project are to keep the whole
>> thing on the rails.
>>
Just remind me why we decided it was a good idea to join an organisation that operates by bribery and money-laundering?
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I have little sympathy for the Greeks. Yes, the lenders were foolish and they are paying the price for it, but Greece isn't some little old lady on a pension who borrowed from Wonga to pay the gas bill. They are a grown up country with economists and financiers like every other developed nation and they knew exactly what they were getting into.
And the people who voted the clowns into government? A lesson to everyone on taking care about where your vote goes as it may come back to bite you. The reason I voted for Cameron and Osborne rather than Miliband and Balls.
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That's with the benefit of hindsight RR - it could have worked out very differently, who was to know?
Anyway, much as I like to think I'd have voted sensibly in the Greek situation, if I felt like a turkey voting for Christmas (which it must have felt like to many) then I believe I'd ignore common sense for once. If we were honest, how many of us would have voted to be hard up for the rest of their lives when there was an alternative on offer?
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>> If we were honest,
>> how many of us would have voted to be hard up for the rest of
>> their lives when there was an alternative on offer?
>>
Well, at the election just gone we voted in a government who said they were going cut public spending and welfare. We rejected the various parties who said we could spend our way out of trouble to one degree or another.
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, how many of us would have voted to be hard up for the rest of their lives when there was an alternative on offer?
There was: the Greens promised it. As did the SNP.
An independent Scotland would now be seeing huge tax rises and spending cuts.
Last edited by: madf on Tue 30 Jun 15 at 11:11
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As I said at the time for Nicola Sturgeon to be pushing anti austerity and commitment to being in the EU was a weird message, but a lot of my countrymen voted for it
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>>And the people who voted the clowns into government?
I would have voted for Tsipras. Greece cannot stay in the Euro unless some of its debt is written off (or at least it can't if Greece *ever* wants to come out of recession). The creditors won't write it off. Therefore they have to leave, and Tripras is the way out.
They are bankrupt. There is nothing nice about going bankrupt, remember the thread where people clubbed together to get a poster here out of trouble with his creditors. But it allows people to turn their lives around, and start again. Like the poster here, likewise Greece.
It's the right answer for Greece, it's the right answer for the world. And it will hurt.
Owe the bank £1,000 and it's your problem. Owe them £100,000,000 and it's their problem. Stick some more noughts on there, and it's even worse...
But these creditors know they won't get their cash back; they will have written it off already (if they have any sense. If they haven't then they're kidding themselves.)
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Isn't the German banks the money is owned to? Correct me if I'm wrong.Angela Merkel talked about keeping the Euro at any cost.
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I see Tspiras is now saying he may resign if he loses the vote. Fairly obvious I'd have thought...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33322754
Last edited by: smokie on Tue 30 Jun 15 at 11:41
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Perhaps the Greeks voted for Tsipras because they believed, or wanted to believe, that by making promises, threats, blustering and sweet-talking the rest of Europe, somehow things would go on as they had always done. Perhaps Tsipras believed that.
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>>And the people who voted the clowns into government?
Glass houses, I think.
How many people in the UK vote having studied and understood the financial policies of each politician?
Sadly that's not how people behave.
And whilst Greece as a country has made its own bed, I feel an enormous amount of sympathy for the "ordinary" people who perhaps voted ridiculously, and are now worrying about where the next meal is coming from.
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>> >>And the people who voted the clowns into government?
>>
>> Glass houses, I think.
>>
>> How many people in the UK vote having studied and understood the financial policies of
>> each politician?
Thankfully, enough understood the financial policies and dangers enough and voted for the Tories.
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>>
>> The reason millions of euros were poured in without a realistic expectation of repayment >> shows how desperate the movers and shakers of the EU project are to keep the whole
>> thing on the rails. It also illustrates how fragile the project is, unless, or until,
>> it can achieve such alignment between states that in effect Europe becomes a federation.
>>
That's it in a nutshell, the Eurozone has always been a very very very expensive attempt to prove that political will can overcome financial reality- you cannot have a common currency across divergent economies. At some point it will unravel.
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>> you cannot have a common
>> currency across divergent economies. At some point it will unravel.
>>
??
How come Sterling and the US Dollar haven't unravelled?
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...and why are people only wise now - I don't recall any discussion like this before...?
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>> ...and why are people only wise now - I don't recall any discussion like this
>> before...?
>>
There were plenty of economists pointing out that a common currency can't work, but, as usually happens, that doesn't stop the politicians doing what they want anyway.
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>>How come Sterling and the US Dollar haven't unravelled?
Not sure I understand your point;
However, surely if a country controls it's own economy but has no control over it's currency, then at the very best it has lost several fiscal options.
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>> >> you cannot have a common
>> >> currency across divergent economies. At some point it will unravel.
>> >>
>>
>> ??
>>
>> How come Sterling and the US Dollar haven't unravelled?
>>
?? They're not a common currency, there's a variable exchange rate between them.
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No, you misunderstand. Sterling and the US dollar are currencies which operate across divergent economies. In the case of Sterling, the regional economies of the UK. There are vast differences between regions here. Same goes for the US. Some regions subsidise the others. So, any given single currency CAN operate across divergent economies. IF the political conditions are also implemented, which is where the Euro is floundering at the moment. But, in principle, a single currency can operate across divergent economies.
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>>There are vast differences between regions here
But they are not different economies.
Firstly, all economies will ultimately work perfectly and remain balanced if left untouched. Periods of imbalance will always be dealt with automatically.
However, we never allow that to happen because of the impact on people. Cases where the natural movement within the economy will bring hardship; e.g. the economy will deal with a surplus of food by causing the price to drop, farmers to go bust, and food supply to reduce. Or another example would be that the economy will deal with an over supply of labour by causing some of it to starve to death.
So we interfere. Pretty much all political parties agree that there must be interference, they just disagree about where int he economic cycle this interference should occur.
Any interference means the economy is out of whack and thus the interference must continue. If you do not control your won currency, then the means of interference at your disposal are reduced, and subject to external fiscal impacts. e.g. you cannot devalue your own currency in order to impact your own economy.
In the case of the regions of the UK, it works because the same body has total control of all, including the currency.
The Euro would be fine if one of the following things was acceptable;
Total lack of interference. Which is never going to happen and probably isn't desirable anyway.
The EU has total control of all the economies which use the Euro.
As I have said before, the Euro will only work if there is a federal and fiscal union. I don't want that union, thus I don't want the Euro.
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I think there's a strong argument to be made that the economies of London/SE England and NE England, for example, are vastly different.
But apart form that I'm in agreement with the rest of your piece, NF, until your last sentence. I'm not wholly against the idea of a Federal Europe, but whilst there isn't one I'd rather the UK stays out of the Euro.
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>>I think there's a strong argument to be made that the economies of London/SE England >>and NE England, for example, are vastly different.
Its a question of terminology Al.
What do you consider an economy? For the purposes of this I should say each economy has a different point of control. Where there is full control in one point, then I would say that is one economy.
By that definition the regional differences within the UK are part of the one main economy.
And that is the issue with the Euro without Federal Europe. The control is split, unevenly.
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I think there's a strong argument to be made that the economies of London/SE England and NE England, for example, are vastly different.
I don't think anyone disputes that, but the pound has been in place for many hundreds of years. The Greek situation arose from the fact that with the Euro, much cheaper borrowing came and with that, Greece was able to borrow rather more money than hitherto. And they did, and stuff the worry about repayments, it's jam for tea today.
With the global recession, Greece was not able to make the scheduled repayments, thus provoking the idea of 'Grexit', either from the Euro, or both the Euro and the EU. I doubt if the latter will happen, but the former is a matter of 'when' not 'if'.
There will be severe repercussions for the Euro, and although I don't think we're a big debtor, the pound will suffer too. Like unpleasant medicine, better go out of the way, but I don't think the Euro backers see it that way.
Ho hum.
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>> the pound will suffer too.
Arguably quite the opposite. It may become a more preferred option, although probably only in the short to medium term.
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This comment is not aimed at anyone in particular, it's just an observation.
Surely, if humble peasants like us are able to predict the future with such clarity and confidence then it can't have escaped the suits in the financial markets, so any impacts are already largely taken care of in share prices, currency values etc..., presumably on a "worst-case" scenario?
If not then maybe we should close this forum to public view and sell our pronouncements to the wider audience :-)
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The financial markets make money with change. Doesn't really matter good or bad change, just so as its change. They just use their knowledge to predict [guess good] which;
And they don't share, the last thing they want is change stopped. Nor do they want it accounted for. Change is good, sudden unexpected change is even better. If one saw it coming, of course.
The electorate, as a whole, neither understands nor is interested enough to find out.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Tue 30 Jun 15 at 16:37
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>> The financial markets make money with change. Doesn't really matter good or bad change, just
>> so as its change. They just use their knowledge to predict [guess good] which;
>>
>> And they don't share, the last thing they want is change stopped. Nor do they
>> want it accounted for. Change is good, sudden unexpected change is even better. If one
>> saw it coming, of course.
>>
Interesting I can see that, but quite a common thing to see is how the markets hate change. A cheap line to feed people?
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>>but quite a common thing to see is how the markets hate change
Let us say a share is worth £1.00 today.
Obviously if I believe it will be worth £1.10 tomorrow, I should buy one.
Of course, if everybody sees me buying one, then they will all wonder what I know and perhaps buy one as well. In fact, so may people buy one, that the price would go to £1.20.
Then tomorrow perhaps every body will sell, to the price will go down again. But because they all sold quickly, it may go down to £0.95.
So today I sell a share I don't have for £1.05 and the guy who bought it is happy. I have to give him the share within 5 days.
Tomorrow as predicted the price drops to £0.95 so I buy the share I need, and deliver it to the bloke I already sold it to.
I just made 15p.
Or reverse the whole lot if the predicted change is initially down.
I still make 15p.
However, if there is no change how can I make money?
Of course it is more complex than that, because there are so many competing and complimenting markets, products and dealers.
My point being that they LOVE change. They NEED change. But the wrong change, or a bigger or smaller change than they predicted can be a disaster. Then they all run around like lunatics trying to catch up.
The BBC then reports that as a market disaster.
Have to seen Trading Places, as someone asked recently?
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Yeah I'd seen about the trading and selling on what others think might happen. More curious about why the opposite is reported, say before an election.
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>More curious about why the opposite is reported, say before an election.
Part of it is that it depends on where the money is going. If profit is used to buy more shares and more shares, then no problem. Other than perhaps it'll get too hot and then crash.
But, it may be that shares are being sold and the money going out of the country or to other markets. That can mean that the "change" will be day on day or week on week of downward change across the board.
So even though the individual traders may make money, the market itself is getting smaller.
Equally money moves differently depending on the type of investor. Some, for example a Pension Fund, invests for longer periods of time and wants change to be generally up, although it accepts that in the type of investment they are doing it will not be dramatic.
Some people are day traders - essentially want to buy and sell on very short time scales.
Some buy stocks and shares, others invest in currency. etc. etc.
It is the interaction of all these different types of markets and buyers/sellers which causes the complexity.
Consequently there can be different perspectives and different impacts of the same change which will not all be reported or understood equally.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Tue 30 Jun 15 at 17:11
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>I just made 15p.
By my calculation only two thirds of that...
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indeed, 10p. But the point remains the same.
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>> Some regions subsidise the others.
>>
That's the key point, surely? We accept that there should be a permanent subsidy from richer areas of Britain to poorer. We don't pretend that these transfers are loans, accumulating interest and then needing more loans to sustain them.
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>> >>
>> >> The reason millions of euros were poured in without a realistic expectation of repayment
>> >> shows how desperate the movers and shakers of the EU project are to keep
>> the whole
>> >> thing on the rails....
>> >>
>> That's it in a nutshell, ...
I don't think that was the logic.
Almost all countries grew to love debt when economies were strong, in exactly the same way that households make themselves "better off" by borrowing to buy houses, cars and holidays, spending the money before they have earned it. They aren't better off at all of course, because their incomes are reduced by the cost of servicing the debt.
Both fail utterly to distinguish between spending and investing.
With the growth in wholesale debt the supply of lending became almost unlimited.
When the house of cards looked like collapsing, the bailouts came not to protect the creditors or the EU but as a way of kicking the can down the road a bit, and hoping to prevent a bigger disaster.
Unfortunately, it is nearly always the case that when debt goes bad, it is better to take the hit sooner rather than later.
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>>How come Sterling and the US Dollar haven't unravelled?<<
Because of the possibility of fiscal transfers between states or parts of a union, direct money printing/creation or the ability to tinker with the exchange rate according to circumstances. None of these options is available to individual members of the Eurozone.
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Current BBC Headline;
"Greece debt crisis: 'Last-minute talks after new offer'"
Undeniable proof that Greece was better to push it to the limit, at least so far.
And that the other side of the table should take a large slap to the head for trying to play it that way.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Tue 30 Jun 15 at 14:22
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>>Undeniable proof that Greece was better to push it to the limit, at least so far.
We have the extraordinary situation that Greece would be better off (in the end, it won't be easy to begin with) leaving the Euro, but the EZ don't want the immediate crisis so would rather the Greeks stay in (for ever, irrespective of the impact on their economy).
Bonkers
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Zimbabwe gave up its currency last week - 350,000,000,000 to the US$
Anybody with savings in Zimbabwe Bank was entitled to a max of $5.00
Inflation at several hundred per cent per day - makes Wonga interest rates look cheap!
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I used to have some Zimbabwean banknotes of astronomical denominations, hundreds of billions of dollars, but I can't find them now.
Must have spent them, but how? Never set foot in Zimbabwe.
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I have some similarly denoted Yugoslav banknotes somewhere also, 500 billion Dinar I think. You had to have Deutsch Marks in those days to get anything in Yugoslavia, even Sterling was laughed at.
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We've got some Weimar Germany 200 million deutschmark postage stamps here, one over-printed to 280 million. I wouldn't have bothered writing to anybody...
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>> I have some similarly denoted Yugoslav banknotes somewhere also, 500 billion Dinar I think. You had to have Deutsch Marks in those days to get anything in Yugoslavia, even Sterling was laughed at.>>
My signed similar Yugoslavia banknotes from the mid-1990s are housed on the special board for such notes in the bar area at the Stansted airport Hilton Hotel.
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FM2R said>>There comes a time..
It obviously hasn't come this time. It will in due course.
Hilaire Beloc said "Always keep a hold of nurse for fear of finding something worse." Never truer.
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Jim' s fate after letting go of nurse was of course to be eaten by a lion called Ponto. Will Greece suffera similar end?
Now, just imagine how it feels
When first your toes and then your heels,
And then by gradual degrees,
Your shins and ankles, calves and knees,
Are slowly eaten, bit by bit.
No wonder Jim detested it!
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Thinking seems to be that Tsiparis's days are numbered, and that this was inevitable once he started on the current course.
It does seem to me that he took a massive gamble but in the end has blinked first.
Here's an edited extract from a daily bulletin email I receive (Money Morning"), which makes a few interesting points, albeit somewhat anti-EU.
"When you hear of Greece needing another bailout, that money is not going to the Greek people. It would be more accurate to say ‘Greece’s creditors need another bailout’, because that is where most of the money is going.
"It’s as though the Greek people are being expected to pay through unemployment, poverty, lack of opportunity and debt servitude for the machinations of the European Union and previous governments, as well as for the bailouts of their crony-creditors.
"Meanwhile, the European Central Bank prints money to buy bonds, as Tommy Cooper would say, “just like thatâ€. Newly printed money fuels yet more asset-price inflation and economic distortion, which further increases the gap in wealth between those that have and those that don’t have."
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>>It does seem to me that he took a massive gamble but in the end has blinked first.
Yes he did blink first, I wonder why.
Behind the scenes conversations, perhaps.
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In a comprehensive survey I have conducted her in Corfu consisting consisting of the guy who owns the hotel, the barkeeper and the local barber there is every indication of a 100% yes vote.
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I'm fed up of people saying the borrowed money goes to people they already owe money to. That's because they were borrowing too much years ago. And despite having debt written off they then needed to borrow even more.
Part of this stems from them not sorting out tax evasion and being able to retire at 50 for some.
Interestingly, someone I know in Greece was convinced in early May that they would have the Drachma again sooner rather than later. He owns a few successful business and would probably benefit long term with the Drachma.
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>> I'm fed up of people saying the borrowed money goes to people they already owe money to.
So am I - it's much more subtle than that. (see below)
>> That's because they were borrowing too much years ago. And despite having debt written off they then needed to borrow even more.
Yes - due to outrageously living beyond their means and corruption, e.g. Vanity projects like the Olympic games, 13 months salary for 12 months work, phantom jobs, crooked EU agricultural claims, increased benefits, massive tax evasion - mainly by the better off members of society.
(Curiously the "early retirement" meme is largely a urban myth affecting tiny numbers of people)
>> And despite having debt written off they then needed to borrow even more.
Absolutely. Private investors lost just over half their money in a "haircut" in 2011.
Because of the Greek government failing to implement the promised reforms (a hard sell to the Greek voters), and the general failure of the Eurozone to get itself out of recession the original relief fund of 110 billion Euros had to be more than doubled to 240 billion in 2012.
Having finally implemented some of the reforms, albeit at a cost of increased unemployment, by 2014 the Greek economy was actually starting to slowly grow and unemployment fell. There was even a small current account surplus - a noteworthy achievement.
All this was thrown away when Syriza won the election in December 2014 on a "no austerity" platform. The Troika (Commission, IMF, ECB) agreed to negotiate whilst continuing to guarantee the Greek economy. They agreed to slow down austerity and to modify/reschedule some of the reforms. The trouble was that Syriza didn't want to negotiate - they just wanted everything their own way. Every time that there seemed to be a deal ready, then Columbo-like they would come back with "just one more thing". The Trioka's patience finally snapped when Tsipiras announced the referendum. There is NO DEAL on offer any more - just surrender by Syriza.
The only people who have actually gained anything are the Banks who recklessly gave loans to the Greek Government knowing that they were "fiscally cavalier." The bailouts have largely been used to pay off these creditors when the loan repayments became due. In effect, via the ECB, the cost of Greek default has been transferred from the Banks to Eurozone taxpayers. Lucky old Bankers....again.
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Its about 4 months old, but it hasn't changed much.
money.cnn.com/2015/01/28/investing/greek-debt-who-has-most-to-lose/
The UK and its banks are down around EUR10bn
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Same-source data on the Beeb's Greek news page, seems to have been a fixture in whatever the live page is for some weeks now. www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33363295
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Is democracy under threat, they were asking on the box tonight, in the country that originated the concept of democracy, Greece?
No it isn't.
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Russian and Chinese silence has been a bit deafening.
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Russia hasn't been silent, although certainly not loud.
But its looking to facilitate a favourable outcome, not actually pay for it. Saying all the right things, patting all the right shoulders, but not actually materially getting its hand in its pocket. No doubt trade agreements will be / are available though.
China is mumbling. One wonder exactly how they will use their membership and the funds of the AIIB. This may be an opportunity to at least unsettle the US/EU if not actually materially change anything.
China rather gloats over the lack of US involvement/influence, and to that extent the AIIB could become quite an impactful thing. Its so new at the moment its difficult to know.
Russia is a member of the AIIB, less than 10% though, a bit more than the UK.
Although I'd be surprised if anybody did anything direct or obvious, they're just messing around behind the scenes seeking future advantage or position.
US influence is fading, without doubt. It'll take years to materially show, but its there. Similarly China's involvement is not currently as clear as it will become.
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The BBC have just interviewed a Greek politician.....The Minister of Administrative Affairs!
I wonder if there is a Sir Humphrey Appleanouxas?
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>>I wonder if there is a Sir Humphrey Appleanouxas?
If my learned friend is referring to masters of obfuscation and manipulation, I reckon that goes for all their πολιτικοί.
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'No' vote appears likely after 15% votes counted...
Last edited by: Lygonos on Sun 5 Jul 15 at 18:38
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Don't count your chickens before they are well and truly stuffed.
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Mmmm, a "no" vote to accepting terms that are no longer still on offer anyway.
Which is probably just as well as I cannot imagine the confusion if they say yes to a deal they can no longer have.
This is what happens when you call a referendum in a hurry.
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When it was called (late) the deadline for the previous bailout was known. Which makes me wonder if either this was always the plan or they thought the Troika could offer concessions.
With no bailout talks in place (which will need some countries like Germany to vote on it in parliament) then it will be some time before a deal can even start being discussed in any official capacity. And after 5 months they never agreed anything last time.
So assuming talks do begin... what happens to the Greeks in the meantime? I guess banks will remain shut, stricter capital controls will be in place, etc.
End result? Anyone's guess.
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>>
>>
>> End result? Anyone's guess.
>>
Indeed.
Like horse race betting and weather forecasting economics are not an exact science, if it was we'd have permanent stability. Too many variables and complete unknowns abound, making accurate predictions impossible.
Economic experts on the left say one thing, those on the right another. As Dave Allen used to say, "May your God go with you".
Last edited by: Robin O'Reliant on Sun 5 Jul 15 at 21:01
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Just looked at the results, seems a big no vote with 60% of the votes counted. I was a bit surprised at the turnout I thought it would be much higher.
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Today the Greeks went to the polls. With only a few hours left of voting time (should have ended at 7pm - continued due to insufficient envelopes), the Greeks want to have their 'FREE CAKE AND EAT IT'
The Greeks still want their 'free cake'
The problem being is that Greece still want to be bailed out; that is what today's "NO" vote is about; not a vote for out of the EU but, a vote refusing the EU's terms on austerity. The Greeks have already been bailed out 3 times at a cost to you. The UK is the 2nd largest contributor to the EU pot. Our taxes have helped to keep the Greeks 'heads just above the water'
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Utter, utter, b*****s typical of the uneducated myopic rubbish that you mindlessly spout.
Go read the debt breakdown further up, if facts won't give you the vapours.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Sun 5 Jul 15 at 22:13
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@Roger.
You're going a bit off message from your own "Dear Leader"
Nige has tweeted:
"EU project is now dying. It’s fantastic to see the courage of the Greek people in the face of political and economic bullying from Brussels."
twitter.com/Nigel_Farage
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We hope that this will lead to a Grexit!
It just may be the first domino.
Then - hopefully - EspExit: ItExit, FrExit & then BREXIT!
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>>
>> We hope that this will lead to a Grexit!
We? I knew you didn't have the brains to invent that crap yourself. Does the "leadership" tell you when you can wipe your a***?
Last edited by: Zero on Sun 5 Jul 15 at 22:22
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>> Does the "leadership" tell you when you can wipe your a***?
Step 1:
Remove head.
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>> >>
>> >> We hope that this will lead to a Grexit!
>>
>> We? I knew you didn't have the brains to invent that crap yourself. Does the
>> "leadership" tell you when you can wipe your a***?
>>
I reckon as the second biggest provider of bull excreta here, you need plenty of toilet paper yourself!
:-)
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>> I reckon as the second biggest provider of bull excreta here, you need plenty of
>> toilet paper yourself!
Yeah but at least I make it up myself, I don't need someone to feed it to me.
And swallow it.
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>> as the second biggest provider of bull excreta here,
It may be asking for trouble, but I can't help wondering who the biggest one is in your book Rastaman. Go on, give us a clue.
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>>but I can't help wondering who the biggest one is in your book Rastaman
I vote for Bromp as the most diametrically opposed view to Dodger.
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>> >> as the second biggest provider of bull excreta here,
>>
>> It may be asking for trouble, but I can't help wondering who the biggest one
>> is in your book Rastaman. Go on, give us a clue.
>>
I am Spartacus!
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I wonder what his definition of "bull excreta" is.
If he means stuff which annoys him, then I do hope its me.
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>>It may be asking for trouble
Presumably why you said it.
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>> The Greeks have already been bailed out 3
>> times at a cost to you. The UK is the 2nd largest contributor to the
>> EU pot. Our taxes have helped to keep the Greeks 'heads just above the water'
The truth is of course that The UK is relatively unexposed to the money owed to Greece.
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While you're all busy with the usual ill-mannered reflex Roger bashing, the cost to UK of Greek bailouts will not be trivial.
From memory I think our contribution to the IMF funding is c. 5%, and c. 15% of the loan guarantees under the EU stability agreement. British banks certainly have less exposure than others especially French, but probably >£10bn.
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>>
>> money.cnn.com/2015/01/28/investing/greek-debt-who-has-most-to-lose/
>>
>> >>probably >£10bn
>>
>> Actually around EUR10bn.
Not a bad guess then :)
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I'd rather we took a EUR 10bn hit now than fanny around for another decade pumping more money into Greece that will never be recoverable and will ultimately require a significant haircut.
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>> I'd rather we took a EUR 10bn hit now than fanny around for another decade pumping more money into Greece that will never be recoverable and will ultimately require a significant haircut.>>
According to Sky News earlier today, Greece's debt is 180 per cent of its annual GNP. The mind boggles.
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Possibly not unadjacent to the UK if you include all the off balance sheet PFI-type stuff.
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Ignore the debt payments, ignore the interest payments, Greece's fundamental problem is that it costs more to run the country than taxation raises.
Also I think some people get confused between debt that the country itself has and debt that private companies based in that counyry have, such as banks.
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>> Ignore the debt payments, ignore the interest payments, Greece's fundamental problem is that it costs
>> more to run the country than taxation raises.
>>
Don't most counties spend more than bring in?
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"In a comprehensive survey I have conducted her in Corfu consisting consisting of the guy who owns the hotel, the barkeeper and the local barber there is every indication of a 100% yes vote."
Never trust opinion polls!
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60%-40% for OXI! quite consistently so far. Mutti will be worried.
Today's Matt on the nail as usual, a Greek money machine saying: DON'T EVEN ASK.
Actually English ones say much the same to me, but it's personal not corporate. Tsk.
Last edited by: smokie on Mon 6 Jul 15 at 08:43
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Seems that turkeys have elected to be in Greece at Christmas after all.....
Last edited by: smokie on Mon 6 Jul 15 at 08:44
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Yeah, I initially thought exactly that but maybe it will turn out well for them, and maybe Europe was bullying and all those things they've been accused of. It's making me think, and time will tell... It could turn out to have been a brave choice a la BBC headline, whereas to me last week I was thinking it would be a stupid vote.
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Greek finance minister Varoufakis has resigned after Greek PM agrees with EU ministers that Varoufakis will not be party to negotiations.
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Euclid is appointed as the new finance minister, Euclid Tsakalotos that is.
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>> Euclid is appointed as the new finance minister,
Alas they have appointed Euclid of Megara the philosopher, rather than Euclid of Alexandria the mathematician.
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Seems to be a lot of wishful thinking in that article. I think he's making a common mistake of mixing what he thinks will happen and what he wants to happen. Its a mistake made by many though.
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I think the quality of this phrase rather sums the article up...
"Far more important than this European Union is the concept of national democracy, of which this Greek referendum and its result are a beaming example of."
A badly phrased, no longer relevant, question with no possibility of one of the offered outcomes being available. A shining example indeed.
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youtu.be/xu5sTyAXyAo
Highlights some fundamental flaws with the setup.The ECB is there to ensure stability then lends money to bankrupt banks which are not central banks. Ask who the creditors are and the politicians hide behind that's private company data. Then why is public funding being used?
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The Greek Government is now off the hook.
When things go mammaries up when they leave the Euro - as they will - and prices soar and Greeks become a lot poorer- they can turn round and say "you voted for it"..
Democracy in action - but a hasty referendum with no real debate is how not to do democracy.
Some harsh lessons coming to the Greeks...If they thought austerity was bad, what is coming will be much worse - in the short term at least..
Greek holidays are likely to be at bargain prices...
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When similar effects happened in Argentina 15 odd years ago massive bargains became available for cash, but muggings looking for cash rose astronomically.
I'd expect similar in Greece.
In Greece there will be decent, honest people living on their pensions who are now suffering terribly. You'd think the Government might think about that.
A major difficulty is that both sides are well out of their depth and both unable to separate their personal agendas long enough to actually look objectively at improving the whole situation.
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The biggest problem Greece and the EC have is the Greeks as people. Their leaders need to borrow more to keep afloat so publicly criticise their creditors..and then complain when they are not lent more money.
Negotiations don't work if you publicly insult the other side... especially when you NEED their goodwill to get a deal.It makes student politicians appear grown up by comparison. And Russell Brand seem a fount of wisdom....
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As an aside, I see that the referendum result indicated yet another resounding success for media opinion polls.
Not.
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Media opinion polls are a waste of time.Some people making money out of guessing.
One week before any election the media should shut up about people's opinions.
It was on the cards the Greek people would say no.We would if there is no light at the end of the tunnel.Interesting times ahead maybe the Spanish and Portugese might wake up.
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>>And Russell Brand seem a font of wisdom..>>
I don't think even now that the Greek situation is quite that bad relatively speaking...:-)
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Greek population has always been very left-wing at heart. There are exceptions of course but nothing's changed since the Greek civil war that followed the Nazi occupation, it was a left coalition then and it still is one. Syriza is the linear descendant of ELAS.
This hard-bitten outlook seems to go with cultivation of olives and thin white wine on poor steep land... you come across the same sort of thing in Spain and parts of Italy and France.
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or at least the Greek railways' employees are..
Hellenic Railways operates at a loss of about $3.8 million per day, having accumulated a total debt of 13 billion $, or about 5% of Greek GDP (2010). The bulk of this debt will mature in 2014. In 2008, the company reported a loss of more than $ 1 billion, on sales of about $ 253 million. Between 2000 and 2009, the cost of the company’s payroll soared by 50 percent even as overall personnel decreased by 30 percent. The average salary of a rail employee is over $78,000. In the mountainous Peloponnese region, trains manned by drivers being paid as much as $130,000 a year frequently run empty.
For the better part of a decade, Greece has provided sovereign backing to Hellenic Railways, thus allowing it to borrow billions even though the company’s finances are so skewed that it pays three times as much on interest expenses than it collects in revenue. As the debt of state-owned enterprises was not counted toward Greece’s official debt, Greece has been able to use the rail system as a means to support employment while not adding to its official debt number; basically an accounting trick to hide debt.
The Greek government is aware that only the closure of a substantial number of loss-making routes and large employment cuts (between 2500-3500 of the 7000 staff) will make Hellenic Railways attractive to foreign investors. But the Railway Union opposes privatization and threatens with strikes if jobs and benefits are threatened.[9] Nevertheless, some lines have been closed since 2010 (see below).
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railways_of_Greece#Current_status
Government by morons...
Last edited by: madf on Mon 6 Jul 15 at 19:35
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>>basically an accounting trick to hide debt.
Our politicians would never do anything like that. Er...
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As it turned out, what the Greeks wanted to do, once the lights went out and they were alone in the
dark with a pile of borrowed money, was turn their government into a piñata stuffed with fantastic
sums and give as many citizens as possible a whack at it. In just the past decade the wage bill of the
Greek public sector has doubled, in real terms—and that number doesn’t take into account the
bribes collected by public officials. The average government job pays almost three times the
average private-sector job. The national railroad has annual revenues of 100 million euros against
an annual wage bill of 400 million, plus 300 million euros in other expenses. The average state
railroad employee earns 65,000 euros a year. Twenty years ago a successful businessman turned
minister of finance named Stefanos Manos pointed out that it would be cheaper to put all Greece’s
rail passengers into taxicabs: it’s still true. “We have a railroad company which is bankrupt beyond
comprehension,†Manos put it to me. “And yet there isn’t a single private company in Greece with
that kind of average pay.†The Greek public-school system is the site of breathtaking inefficiency:
one of the lowest-ranked systems in Europe, it nonetheless employs four times as many teachers
per pupil as the highest-ranked, Finland’s. Greeks who send their children to public schools simply
assume that they will need to hire private tutors to make sure they actually learn something. There
are three government-owned defense companies: together they have billions of euros in debts, and
mounting losses. The retirement age for Greek jobs classified as “arduous†is as early as 55 for men
and 50 for women. As this is also the moment when the state begins to shovel out generous
pensions, more than 600 Greek professions somehow managed to get themselves classified as
arduous: hairdressers, radio announcers, waiters, musicians, and on and on and on. The Greek
public health-care system spends far more on supplies than the European average—and it is not
uncommon, several Greeks tell me, to see nurses and doctors leaving the job with their arms filled
with paper towels and diapers and whatever else they can plunder from the supply closets.
Where waste ends and theft begins almost doesn’t matter; the one masks and thus enables the
other. It’s simply assumed, for instance, that anyone who is working for the government is meant
to be bribed. People who go to public health clinics assume they will need to bribe doctors to
actually take care of them. Government ministers who have spent their lives in public service
emerge from office able to afford multi-million-dollar mansions and two or three country homes.
This is from an article in Vanity Fair Business section, from 2010
Sorry about lack of punctuation: copied from a .pdf file.
Last edited by: Roger. on Mon 6 Jul 15 at 21:32
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>>This is from an article in Vanity Fair Business section, from 2010
I think some of that stuff has been a bit overdone, but it's certainly the case that the ambition of most bright young Greeks prior to the crisis was to work for the Government rather than say a big accountancy firm or blue chip private employer.
In other respects it's similar to many small countries - the movers and shakers all know each other and there is a lot of back scratching.
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>> >>basically an accounting trick to hide debt.
>>
>> Our politicians would never do anything like that. Er...
>>
What is Greek for PFI ? What they need is a Chancellor with vision, someone to move debt off the balance sheet hmmm...
Nope, can't think of anyone.
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More on Greece... - Observer
