I won't post a link but it is exactly the same as were told in November 2010. I must have hibernated thru that one! The article is written in a tabloid by a reporter called Nathan Reo whose recent journalism is
2 articles (since October 2010)
Average article: 13 column inches (397 words)
Shortest article: 11 column inches (323 words)
Longest article: 16 column inches (471 words)
So, an experienced and reliable source. The information is probably from whichever lot promised us the Barbecue Summer that never was, or did I sleep thru that too?!
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Any weather forecast for the UK more than a week ahead is pure fantasy.
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>> exactly the same as were told in November 2010. I must have hibernated thru that one!
Indeed you must have:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_of_2010%E2%80%932011_in_Great_Britain_and_Ireland
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Typical Daily Express headline. It's either the weather, house prices or Diana.
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>> Typical Daily Express headline. It's either the weather, house prices or Diana.
You should try the Telegraph for a change. Most of the stories there are telling you that everything you eat, drink or think, and quite a lot of government decisions, will give you cancer or a heart condition or make you go gaga well before your time or ensure extreme poverty in your old age. Or that they won't, after all.
You can keep people anxious for ever by this simple technique, 'scientists say'.
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You are right! I do remember getting to work and back all through it. Perhaps the East Midlands weren't so bad.
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WINTER TO BE MILD PREDICTS MET OFFICE
tinyurl.com/18r
Nathan Reo..28/10 2010
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>> WINTER TO BE MILD PREDICTS MET OFFICE
Not so keen on Mild - prefer Bitter
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I don't listen to this nonsens.We are lucky to have a few days weather prediction right.
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Mild for a child, bitter for a fitter...
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Can't say I really care what it does. Living in south Cheshire anything which breaches the norm of 12C and raining, or just stopped raining, or indeed just about to rain has to be in some ways a welcome change. You can tell when it's summer here because it goes to 16C and of course raining etc, in deep winter it goes down to about 8C and, well, you know...raining.
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Was it Billy Connoly who said "No such thing as bad weather, just the wrong clothes".
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Him and makers of hiking gear :)
Last edited by: Focusless on Sat 17 Nov 12 at 19:19
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Exactly the same climate as NW Leics Humph... It's strange how the weather only an hour down the M1 from here is so much warmer. The running joke in this house is that the outside temperature goes up by 1 degree C for every 10 miles we travel* towards Bedfordshire.
We are virtually guaranteed some disruptive snowfall every winter here; not so down there.
*We tend to head for there in the early morning and return late in the evening which goes some way towards explaining it, but the day's peak temperature recorded there is often 6degC higher than it reached here.
Last edited by: Dave_TDCi on Sat 17 Nov 12 at 19:19
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"We are lucky to have a few days weather prediction right."
Don't be daft Dutchie - they can predict exactly the temp to within a couple of degrees, rainfall, whether we will have warm/cool summers, cold/mild winters hundreds of years in the future. Haven't you read all the Global warming/climate change/ climate disruption stuff????
And they use exactly the same computers you are saying can't get it right a few days ahead!!
;-)
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Careful Phil, you might have triggered a key word or three there...you'll be logged as a fellow disbeliever.
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"a fellow disbeliever"
Moi? A disbeliever? Far too mild a description!! Biggest scam ever. But some seem to do well out of it. Proposed wind farm in Bronte country-
"The Yorkshire moorland that inspired Wuthering Heights is about to be blighted by nine 377ft wind turbines, each one the height of Salisbury Cathedral. The landowner will be paid £401,000 pa, index-linked, for the next 25 years. The developer will get an income of around £2,679,300 pa, index-linked, over the same period. The vast bulk of this will come straight from the taxpayer in the form of compulsory subsidies, payable even if the turbines produce no power."
And yesterday I drove past hundreds of the damned things in Southern uplands of Scotland, so someone is making a bit of money there -paid for by the rest of us in energy bills.
Mind you, if you were David Cameron and your father in law was making £1000 a day out of wind farms on his land, or you were Nick Clegg, whose wife is paid tens/hundreds of thousands a year from being a consultant to a green energy company maybe you would not be "a fellow disbeliever"!
Wish I had a bit more land to stick a few turbines on and then move somewhere else!!
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>> Wish I had a bit more land to stick a few turbines on and then
>> move somewhere else!!
>>
Everyone is motivated by the same greed you admit to have. No one is altruistic in this world, despite their protestations to the country.
p.s. wind turbines don't grow on trees.
Last edited by: John H on Sat 17 Nov 12 at 21:51
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"Everyone is motivated by the same greed you admit to have. No one is altruistic in this world, despite their protestations to the country.
p.s. wind turbines don't grow on trees."
I was being a little ironic.
Don't get the last bit about wind turbines not growing on trees.
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For every wind turbine you see, which has cost "us" squillions (see subsidy and rent figures above) there has to some sort of reliable back-up or we shall load shedding, brown outs or black-outs For the second time in in 12 moths I passed the Drax power station. Blue sky, 2C and a flat calm.From the look of the chimneys and cooling towers it was working near full capacity. It can produce 13% of UK's total power demand. Another nonsense is that when the turbines can produce electricity but the Grid doesn't need it they are paid for it, used or not.
wattsupwiththat.com/2010/06/20/firms-paid-to-shut-down-wind-farms-when-the-wind-is-blowing/
Germany are further down the renewable road than we are than this is where they have got to:-
Germany’s renewables drive is turning out to be a disaster. This should particularly concern us because our Government, with its plan to build 30,000 turbines, to meet our EU target of sourcing 32 per cent of our electricity from renewables by 2020, is hell-bent on the same path. But our own “big six” electricity companies, including RWE and Eon, are told that they cannot build any replacements for our coal-fired stations (many soon to be closed under EU rules) which last week were supplying more than 40 per cent of our power – unless they are fitted with CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage). A similar threat hangs over plans to build new gas-fired plants of the type that will be essential to provide up to 100 per cent back-up for those useless windmills.
Many of us will live long enough to see the costs and power shortages caused by the current folly.
Last edited by: Meldrew on Sat 17 Nov 12 at 22:30
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This country is blessed with renewables and carbon sources.
We could harness wind, wave, hydro, and tide power, we could burn freshly mined coal, use bought in gas, and build new nuclear power stations.
There is no single magic bullet to clean safe cheap power, but there is a sensible balanced generating strategy available for anyone with the common sense, will and support to do it.
Alas thats the only resource we do lack. That and sunshine.
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You forgot another - foresight.
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Dont need that really. Awareness would do it.
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Lots of people making loads of money from turbines - still night here on Anglesey - covered in the blessed thngs with more to come, still and cold - where's the leccy ?
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"We could harness wind, wave, hydro, and tide power, we could burn freshly mined coal, use bought in gas, and build new nuclear power stations. "
OK Z, possibly but :-
wind is carp - doesn't work when wind ain't blowing (and winter high pressures when it's coldest and biggest demand for 'lec is when wind ain't blowing)
hydro - yep, great in NW Scotland, but where do you suggest in SE England?
Tide power - good in theory, but I remember doing a study of the "Rance" scheme in France when I was at school in the '60s - not a lot of news on that since? So is it the answer?
So, that leaves coal, (bought in ) gas - or frakking gas - ? or nuclear.
Nuclear or gas, I guess - either of which is better than useless wind things and
let's get back to those "300 years worth" of coal we have sitting under us.
Sorry to go on about this, but we do have loads of energy resources - COAL - beneath us, and all this BS about cutting "carbon" emissions is truly BS since we are the only country in the world who seems to believe we can influence it - yet we only produce 2%.
Tell China about reducing CO2, tell India, and now, tell Germany (new lignite burning power stations anyone?)
Last edited by: VxFan on Fri 23 Nov 12 at 01:04
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Spot on Meldrew
"Drax power station"
www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/britain%27s-mad-biomass-dash.aspx
CCS
Doesn't exist yet (economically)
All this dash for renewables (mainly wind power) causes me to think of an analogy - could I run my car on wind power?
Theoretically, yes. Put a windmill or sail on top of car (you would pay for it, not me). On windy days, great, sail along under wind power. But, on still days better have a diesel or petrol engine for standby, up and running (inefficiently?)'cos these things take a while to warm up (like 3 weeks for a power station??). Even on windy days, what if wind dropped during journey? Better have wife following me in good old diesel car. So I have my wind powered car, subsidised by you of course, but have to have a diesel engine running all the time (yes, I can start my diesel car instantly, but you try doing that with Drax) just in case I have to set off early when no wind. And then have to have back-up diesel following me to destination in case wind drops on journey. Savings? CO2 reduction? Not a lot?
" Many of us will live long enough to see the costs and power shortages caused by the current folly."
Too bloomin' true Manatee - I've already got a little diesel generator - diesel powered - for when (not "if") it happens.
Apparently, coverting Drax and Eggborough to wood burning will use more forest than the area of all of Yorkshire per year. This would produce more CO2 than keeping them coal burning. And, of course, Drax and Eggborough sit on top of huge coal reserves (min 200 years worth)
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>> it, not me). On windy days, great, sail along under wind power. But, on still
>> days better have a diesel or petrol engine for standby, up and running (inefficiently?)'cos these
>> things take a while to warm up (like 3 weeks for a power station??). Even
>> on windy days, what if wind dropped during journey?
>>
Here is a reply to those points by a rare, honest, incorruptible, human being:
assets.wwf.org.uk/downloads/managing__variability_report.pdf
www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201213/cmselect/cmenergy/writev/517/m44.htm
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I have read the reply to the points and one thing that struck me was:-
3. No backup needs to be provided specifically to cater for windless days. Backup comes from a common ‘plant margin’ that is needed by all electricity networks.
This implies that we when have the possibility of generating, say 20%, of our electricity with wind turbines we already have 20% spare capacity to kick in on calm days? I don't think so! I appreciate that it is unlikely that all turbines in UK will be affected by a lack of wind at the same time but it could happen (S*d's Law)
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Spare capacity as you call it has to exist, to cope with peak demands, weather extremes, diurnal variations, and outages, planned and unplanned. I forget how much exactly is kept in standby. It used to be the case that generating sets were ranked in cost terms, so base load would be met by the most efficient, in cost terms. Gas fed plant was typically in reserve as it was relatively small and rapid to bring onto power. But as much of the industry is gas-fed that may well have changed. The gas system is run such that the major pipelines are maintained at a high enough pressure to create a reserve. This is maintained in high demand, through gas fired generating sets to pressurise input to the National Transmission System which runs at 85 bar for the onshore pipeline. Some parts (newer) run at up to 94bar. Offshore much higher.
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But what is 100% capacity? In reality its a peak hour reached maybe 1/2 a dozen times a year and then only if there is a particular type of weather.
This is typical in many countries, where they dont even attempt to have capacity for those peaks, and prefer to "brown out" instead, suprisingly it even happens in the states.
The UK national grid is very good, very good indeed at managing and planning this fluctuating demand and covers peaks with no brownouts ( I understand its been close a few times)
The point I am making, is that if we have even a very large 20% of power supplied by wind, Its unlikely to be a "dead calm no wind generated power hour" all over the country at the peak hour when nearly all your generator capacity is required.
Flexibility of sources is the name of the game. Phil waxes lyrically about using coal (not having a "dig" at you phil - honest), but its funny the last time we had rolling blackouts was when we were a coal fired country. You don't want to be wholly reliant on the miners, or the wind.
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Pretty sure there are hydro plants that can go from zero to maximum output within 60secs or so. There are also a couple that can pump water back uphill when there is excess capacity, thus providing a store for peak use.
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>> Pretty sure there are hydro plants that can go from zero to maximum output within
>> 60secs or so. There are also a couple that can pump water back uphill when
>> there is excess capacity, thus providing a store for peak use.
Maybe, but you cant have it available at the housewives plug in Birmingham in 60+1 seconds.
When Hydro is mentioned, people immediately think Big Dam, huge generator hall. There is a whole new line of thought - Mini Hydro.
Years ago, the country was fed by a huge network of water powered mills. Small heads of water, serving a small area. These heads still mostly exist and could all be mini hydro equipped, the Weirs on the Thames could all be equipped, sewer outfall pipes can be utilised.
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Dinorwig's reversible pump/turbines are capable of reaching maximum generation in less than 16 seconds. The current then has to get to Birmingham I agree!
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John,
"Here is a reply to those points by a rare, honest, incorruptible, human being:"
Surprised not to see a smiley (or three!) there.
I used to be a contributer to WWF - not any more - they have become a political organisation very much on the "warmist, alarmist" side. Maybe if they just concentrated on preserving wildlife I would still contribute.
The other guy - Milborrow - is someone who seems to be a wind energy enthusiast whose income is derived from promoting wind energy.
You'll be telling me to read more Monbiot stuff and take out a subscription to the Grauniad next!! ;-)
Regards
Phil
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>> A similar threat hangs over plans to build new gas-fired plants of the type that will be >> essential to provide up to 100 per cent back-up for those useless windmills.
Really daft bit. The next round of planned gas-fired stations will all be open-cycle units. These are less efficient but have far quicker startup times then their more efficient closed-cycle cousins, so they can be badged as base-load for wind, solar, etc. Even though the majority of them are not intended for that purpose at all.
So the effect is we burn more gas than we need[1], purely to stop the eco-Nazis griping about building the things.
[1] No prizes for guessing where the effect of that is most noticeable.
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correction of auto-correct: "country" should have read "contrary".
>> I was being a little ironic.
>>
So was I.
re. The Bronte wind farm - you omitted one key point: The 9 new turbines will replace the existng wind farm of 23 turbines which have been there since 1993.
>> Don't get the last bit about wind turbines not growing on trees.
>>
Wind turbines cost a lot of money to design, plan, build and then operate. The capital has to be funded by loans up front, with no guarantee of output - as you say, their "fuel" is so unpredictable that even the best computers can't surely predict what the wind will do next week, let alone in 1 year or 2 years or during the assumed 20 year life of the plant.
But I shall reply to your later post (about the wind unpredictability and capacity needed to cover for less windy days) in the later post. (edit: my reply appears just above this post!)
Last edited by: John H on Sat 17 Nov 12 at 23:49
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Thanks JH
Bit late for me now, but will have a look tomorrow am and reply
Cheers
P
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I love bad winters.
I'm looking forward to several weeks of being snowed in with plenty of food, drink, sledging, snowmen, snowball fights, walks on crisp, crunchy snow-bound lanes, home to mince pies and hot ginger wine.
It's medium ones that are a pain - struggling to work in difficult but not impossible circumstances, late home, cold, wet, no fun.
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I bought 60 bags o'coal in September (Summer prices) + a load of Hemlock [ en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsuga_heterophylla ] and I ain't used none of it yet :(
So c'mon Winter - bring it on!
Last edited by: VxFan on Mon 19 Nov 12 at 10:07
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You only used 2 bags from the lot you bought before last winter Perro;)...so you tell us!
Pat
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What I try to do Pat, is hang on to me coal right until 'the bitter end' b'cos, as you know, Winter doesn't really get going until the new year - unlike when we were kyds with our snowmen etc. at Christmastide.
I did actually use all 60 bags o'coal last year and in the end I was keeping the fire going 24/7 by stacking it/removing the VERY hot ashes up twice a day.
10.2c on the out, and 18.5c on the in.
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>> I love bad winters.
>> I'm looking forward to ............
Same here, without the work to consider. :-)
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I`m already in semi-hibernation, on cold,wet windy days I don`t see any point in leaving my 30 Tog pit (2 x 15 tog duvets) much before 10, just to wander aimlessly and get in "The Hostesses" way as she goes through her morning blitz ritual. Now if I had to show G/kids the proper way to build a Snowman..........
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I want a good dump of snow just to be able to find out if my rantings of incompetent (and worse) at BMW drivers abandoning their cars all over the place in the bad one of 2010 were justified, or if the cars really are that awful in snow.
Hidden in the manual is a specific instruction relating to the setting of the traction control system for snowy conditions, and it's not obvious / logical. I wonder how many read it.
If nothing else, RWD is what empty, snow covered supermarket car parks were made for. :-D
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>> I want a good dump of snow just to be able to find out if
>> my rantings of incompetent (and worse) at BMW drivers abandoning their cars all over the
>> place in the bad one of 2010 were justified, or if the cars really are
>> that awful in snow.
>>
>> Hidden in the manual is a specific instruction relating to the setting of the traction
>> control system for snowy conditions, and it's not obvious / logical. I wonder how many
>> read it.
>>
>> If nothing else, RWD is what empty, snow covered supermarket car parks were made for.
>> :-D
>>
The words "BMW driver " and "competent" are mutually exclusive.
The cars are carp in snow without winter tyres...but as the drivers never RTFM anyway...
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>> The words "BMW driver " and "competent" are mutually exclusive.
Thanks :-)
>> The cars are carp in snow without winter tyres...but as the drivers never RTFM anyway...
Look forward to finding out how carp.
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Friend had a 520 which was immobile in ice - literally as the wheels just spun. I was in a Fiesta and managed to move - slowly and gingerly - but move.. in a winter some 6 years ago.
After that she bought a Mini Cooper S.. (and suffered back problems as a result of the jarring on our roads)
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>> After that she bought a Mini Cooper S..
>>
That similarly would have gone nowhere on ice, though the sensibly shod lower spec models at least moved.
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Worst Winter for 100 Year forecast. - Old Navy
