Motoring Discussion > Peak Oil is a myth... Green Issues
Thread Author: madf Replies: 15
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New Tue 26 Jun 12 18:56 
 Peak Oil is a myth... - madf
tinyurl.com/7paya36

says it all

Petrol and diesel prices to keep falling for the next decade?
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New Tue 26 Jun 12 19:06 
 Peak Oil is a myth... - borasport
Without reading the whole thing in any depth, it just reminds me of one of those spam emails for penny shares that are guaranteed to make your fortune
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New Tue 26 Jun 12 19:31 
 Peak Oil is a myth... - Shiny
Of course. You only had to see who was propagating that myth to see it was just that. The theory of peak oil was simply coined (once again) as an excuse to extort wealth from the masses. After all, strategy manuals from the Council on Foreign Relations as well as the Club of Rome (which are publically available) state that a global government needs to fabricate artificial scarcity so as to assert control over the world population through neo-feudalism. If that doesn’t amount to some form of skepticism, I don’t know what will.
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New Wed 27 Jun 12 15:17 
 Peak Oil is a myth... - Roger.
>>Strategy manuals from the Council on Foreign Relations as well as the Club of Rome (which are publicly available) state that a global government needs to fabricate artificial scarcity so as to assert control over the world population through neo-feudalism. If that doesn’t amount to some form of skepticism, I don’t know what will.>>

I would call it cynicism, but that control element is pretty obvious in the way the EU operates.
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New Tue 26 Jun 12 21:49 
 Peak Oil is a myth... - Kevin
>Petrol and diesel prices to keep falling for the next decade?

Not a chance.

Here's a short interview with a guy we became friendly with while on holiday recently.

watch.bnn.ca/commodities/june-2012/commodities-june-22-2012#clip706814

A week ago I emailed him to ask about this report predicting oil prices of $35 to $40/bbl by November this year.

www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/06/19/the_coming_oil_crash

The Saudis still control the market but they are are faced with a juggling act. On the one hand they need a price of $95 to $105/bbl to pay for the programs to placate social unrest. On the other hand they would like to keep prices at a level where alternative supplies are uneconomical.

"It may go to 60 but then they will just turn off the taps to drive prices back up again".

There also the problem of refinery capacity.
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New Wed 27 Jun 12 18:18 
 Peak Oil is a myth... - Mapmaker
>>"It may go to 60 but then they will just turn off the taps to drive prices back up again

Yeah right. Like he's got any more idea than the rest of us. The only difference is that he gets paid to tell the rest of us what his guesses are. Just because you met him on holiday doesn't really impress me. That he's based in a dominion with a population of 34m similarly means his views on Canadian oil prices are pretty irrelevant.

If he's right that the Saudis have that much control over the market then they'd turn the taps off at 80 so as to stop it reaching 60 in the first place. Oh yes... and if the Saudis need a price of 95-105 to pay for their programmes then turning the taps OFF means they're getting $nil.

The world-wide all-new recession might mean that demand over 60 may become nearly nil. That way prices won't rise above 60.

Cheap shale gas means that gas is being used where oil had previously been used in North America, and increasingly elsewhere.

BTW, I know little enough to know that predicting the future is very risky indeed.
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New Wed 27 Jun 12 18:43 
 Peak Oil is a myth... - Robin O'Reliant

>> BTW, I know little enough to know that predicting the future is very risky indeed.
>>
Yep, there are two types of economic and political forecaster. Those who don't know and those who don't know they don't know.
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New Wed 27 Jun 12 22:17 
 Peak Oil is a myth... - teabelly
Funny thing is when they test experts, particularly economists, they don't seem to be any better at predicting what will happen than crowd sourced Joe Public. Economists frequently disagree about what will happen. How can an expert that says X will happen still call themselves an expert when they get something totally wrong? If you keep saying it will rain tomorrow and it does have you predicted the weather or had a lucky guess?

OPEC have got away with holding the world to ransom for long enough. With the use of bio fuels and electricity and hydrogen etc they know full well that any more of this nonsense and there will be a wholesale shift away from oil and they'll be back to be scratching in the dirt. I think they know the excuse for very high oil prices has disappeared.

They've been blathering on about peak oil being only 20 years away for 80 years. At some point in the future they may eventually be right but it isn't really showing expertise to keep saying the same thing about the future. Makes them sound like the end of the world is nigh wonks.
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New Wed 27 Jun 12 19:29 
 Peak Oil is a myth... - Kevin
>Yeah right. Like he's got any more idea than the rest of us.

I give more credence to an experienced opinion than someone who has no professional knowledge of the subject Mapmaker.
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New Thu 28 Jun 12 10:24 
 Peak Oil is a myth... - Mapmaker
>> >Yeah right. Like he's got any more idea than the rest of us.
>>
>> I give more credence to an experienced opinion than someone who has no professional knowledge
>> of the subject Mapmaker.


That's fair enough.

However you have posted two very different professional points of view: one that oil will be $40, the other that it will be $80. Which one of these have you chosen, and why?

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New Thu 28 Jun 12 10:50 
 Peak Oil is a myth... - Lygonos
Of more pressing concern is when the planet reaches 'Peak Human'.

In my lifetime (40-ish years) the population has risen from under 4 billion to over 7 billion (around 2 billion when Lud was born)

The real socio-economic upheaval will result from too many people, not too little oil.
Last edited by: Lygonos on Thu 28 Jun 12 at 10:53
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New Thu 28 Jun 12 13:51 
 Peak Oil is a myth... - madf

>> The real socio-economic upheaval will result from too many people, not too little oil.
>>

Or when we get a really serious deadly disease which is highly contagious, not easily contained and which has symptoms delayed for about 3 weeks to 3 months.

After all see the various panics on swine flu which came to nothing. Modern medicine is wonderful but with the gross abuse of modern antibiotics, it's only a matter of time before we get a cross between a MRSA type bug and an air borne virus...

Say a modern day Black Death..
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New Thu 28 Jun 12 18:40 
 Peak Oil is a myth... - Robin O'Reliant
None of the above.

The real problem will come when some Mad Mullah gets the bomb and convinces himself that taking both him and the rest of the world out will guarantee a place in Paradise with seventy two sex mad hookers or whatever.

The day they exploded the first atomic bomb the countdown to Doomsday began.
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New Thu 28 Jun 12 23:42 
 Peak Oil is a myth... - Kevin
>will guarantee a place in Paradise with seventy two sex mad hookers or whatever.

That reminds me. Where is BBD?

Sounds like his sort of party.
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New Sat 30 Jun 12 12:43 
 Peak Oil is a myth... - PhilW
"The real socio-economic upheaval will result from too many people, not too little oil."

No point in discussing either of these scenarios - after all, Malthus a couple of hundred years ago and Ehrlich in the 1970's predicted no humans left by now. Mass famine and disease did for us. Quote "If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000."
And oil? Well according to my Geog teacher in 1960s it all ran out before year 2000. Even he wasn't as pessimistic as "(In 1874) the state geologist of Pennsylvania said that all the oil would be gone by 1878"
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New Thu 28 Jun 12 22:03 
 Peak Oil is a myth... - Kevin
>Which one of these have you chosen, and why?

I haven't chosen either because they both give exactly the same message - that all major producers, with the exception of Qatar, need around $100/bbl to balance the books.
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