Non-motoring > The Ukraine - Volume 7
Thread Author: VxFan Replies: 51

 The Ukraine - Volume 7 - VxFan

Continuing discussion.

652289
Last edited by: VxFan on Fri 23 Sep 22 at 10:59
 Ukraine - Volume 6 - sooty123
www.itv.com/news/2022-09-21/putin-declares-partial-mobilisation-in-rare-televised-address-to-russians

Putin has given into the inevitable.
 Ukraine - Volume 6 - Zero
He is trying to consolidate and call a halt with what he has.

The way to end this is to convince the Ukrainians to accept things are now as they are, maybe by pulling them into NATO. That assures Putin knows he lost big time
Last edited by: Zero on Wed 21 Sep 22 at 12:14
 Ukraine - Volume 6 - CGNorwich
By integrating newly acquired territory into Russia Putin can claim that any further attacks by Ukraine using NATO weaponry is an attack on Russia proper and a justification for use of nuclear weapons which I think is becoming increasingly likely.
 Ukraine - Volume 6 - Robin O'Reliant
>> By integrating newly acquired territory into Russia Putin can claim that any further attacks by
>> Ukraine using NATO weaponry is an attack on Russia proper and a justification for use
>> of nuclear weapons which I think is becoming increasingly likely.
>>

I'm reading "War of Nerves" by Martin Sixsmith at the moment. It is about the Cold War and and a psychological analysis of the various leaders over the decades. In the light of the present situation it makes chilling reading, detailing how close we have come (Within minutes) of a full scale nuclear war on quite a few occasions over the years. We can only hope that behind the bluster there are frantic diplomatic discusions going on behind the scenes to allow a mutually agreeable solution, one that allows both sides to walk away without losing face.

Our luck though, cannot hold out forever and one day someone is going to take a step too far and that will be it. We can only hope it is not during our lifetimes.
 Ukraine - Volume 6 - MD
Or during our Children's lifetimes or their children or.............................
 Ukraine - Volume 6 - Ted

Best option would be to move to Liverpool. I can't see it being on Mr Puteys list of places worth a strike.

Ted
 Ukraine - Volume 6 - MD
There's a few of them in sunny north devon just a few yards from my orfspring. Drug pushing scum and the old Bill do FA.
 Ukraine - Volume 6 - sooty123
This is a political statement more than anything, it changes little in Ukraine, he's telling everyone he's in this for the long term and hoping the west will crack first.

Russia can't train and equip the troops it has now, another 300k through the system is hardly going to help. The new recruits receive very little training, some as few as days.

Next spring will be when we'll see if this recruitment is successful or not.
 Ukraine - Volume 6 - CGNorwich
There are no frantic diplomatic discussions going on behind the scenes I’m afraid. It’s just Putin.
 Ukraine - Volume 6 - Robin O'Reliant
>> There are no frantic diplomatic discussions going on behind the scenes I’m afraid. It’s just
>> Putin.
>>

We have no way of knowing that, such things are never learnt about till afterwards - if at all.

One thing that could make Putin check his stride is the Chinese concern about the situation. That is one enemy the Russians will not want to make.
 Ukraine - Volume 6 - CGNorwich
And who would these discussions be with? Putin currently has absolute power. Until he is overthrown he makes all the decisions. His lackeys do what he says and he’s not looking for a peace treaty with Ukraine..

I think a coup of some sort is inevitable within a year or so but it’s likely to come from the right not the left. Only the military have the capability of getting rid of him.
 Ukraine - Volume 6 - Manatee
Does right/left really work in Russia? I wouldn't have called Stalin a socialist. There's just more fascist and less fascist. Russia fighting Nazis in Ukraine is laughable.

He's going to hold rigged referendums in the areas under Russian control to prove that the populations in those areas want to be part of Russia. Then he will recognise them as such. Then he will construe attempts to retake them as attacks on Russia, which will justify a response with nuclear weapons, even to the extent of retaliatory attacks on NATO countries.

He says he is not bluffing. A fairly essential part of bluffing. He's happy to leave the response to the NATO alliance. Nobody knows what Russia really will do but appeasement would almost certainly be the worst response in the long run. Inscrutability might have a value. Walk softly and carry a big stick etc.

It's very difficult to know how much danger there really is. Best to assume a lot. I think China has an important role and it seems certain they are already working on something, focussed no doubt on opportunities for themselves.
 Ukraine - Volume 6 - CGNorwich
I used “left” to describe the element of the population opposed to the war. Mainly younger and professional classes with more exposure to Western media and views. Unfortunately these people have no real power and change is likely to come from the military who see the country and army humiliated by Putin

 Ukraine - Volume 6 - Manatee
I understand. I can't envisage a popular uprising either.
 Ukraine - Volume 6 - sooty123
There's no doubt been quite a few dictators who thought they were untouchable, until they were.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Thu 22 Sep 22 at 12:17
 Ukraine - Volume 6 - smokie
You mean weren't?
 Ukraine - Volume 6 - sooty123
Yes that one. It looked fine when i was typing it!
 Ukraine - Volume 6 - Robin O'Reliant
>> And who would these discussions be with? Putin currently has absolute power. Until he is
>> overthrown he makes all the decisions. His lackeys do what he says and he’s not
>> looking for a peace treaty with Ukraine..
>>
>>
>>

There are always diplomatic channels open behind the scenes. Even North and South Korea has those despite the power of Kim. All countries recognise these are essential because there are issues that can only be discussed in private in order for compromises to be worked out without making it look like the rulers are backtracking on their public statements - which are for their own populations as much as for the enemy.
 Ukraine - Volume 6 - CGNorwich
Neither Putin nor Ukraine are looking for compromises.
Last edited by: CGNorwich on Thu 22 Sep 22 at 15:29
 Ukraine - Volume 6 - Zero
Maybe, as they never are early in a war, but they will need to be made.

Compromise no 1, Ukraine will never get Crimea back, its gone and the cost is too high. Compromise no2 the breakaway area that went in 2014 is gone. Compromise no 3 Ukraine WILL be in the EU and or Nato. Compromise no 4 Ukraine will be equipped as a hostile front line border. Thats the price you pay for trying to invade a country Putin
 Ukraine - Volume 6 - CGNorwich
There will be no compromise or meaningful talks whilst Putin remains in power.

My betting is on a the Russian military ousting Putin withing the next year, probably sooner. Only if Putin is ousted will there be meaningful talks with Ukraine and the West. If Putin manages to remain in power the war is going to drag on for a very long time possibly years.
 Ukraine - Volume 6 - CGNorwich
I think I have recommended this before but the podcasts really are worth a listen.


www.noiser.com/realdictators
 Ukraine - Volume 6 - Terry
Neither Putin nor Zelensky will open negotiations - it would be seen by the other as a tacit acceptance of impending defeat. Dialogue will need to be started through a third party.

Putin will need a settlement that allows him to save face - portray as either success, or at least achievement of claimed goals. Or the risk of nuclear escalation increases materially.

Zelensky may have to accept the permanent loss of Crimea and some of eastern Ukraine. They are (if the media is to be believed) completely wrecked. The carrot may be NATO and/or EU membership.

Hoping that Putin will be unseated is a complete unknown - we don't know who, when or what changes to foreign and military policy might follow. This is not a solution.

Finally support of Ukraine by the west cannot be withdrawn - it would reinforce the Putin view that resolve is lacking and encourage further "special military operations".
 Ukraine - Volume 6 - zippy
>>Hoping that Putin will be unseated is a complete unknown - we don't know who, when or what >>changes to foreign and military policy might follow. This is not a solution.

With the number of scientists, officials and (former) friends, falling down stairs or out of windows, one wonders if attempted putsches have been put down?
 Ukraine - Volume 6 - Robin O'Reliant
>>
>>
>> With the number of scientists, officials and (former) friends, falling down stairs or out of
>> windows, one wonders if attempted putsches have been put down?
>>

Once you start scaring your own side, your days are numbered.
 Ukraine - Volume 6 - Manatee
>>Neither Putin nor Zelensky will open negotiations - it would be seen by the other as a tacit acceptance of impending defeat. Dialogue will need to be started through a third party.

Have you ever been involved in a mediation? I was on one side of a £10m. claim that went that way. Fascinating. The job of the mediator is to find a position that both sides think makes them a winner. Not quite as serious as a war of course.

I don't suppose Sinn Fein or the Unionists kicked off the NI agreement process.
 Ukraine - Volume 6 - CGNorwich
The unseating of Putin is the only thing that will lead to the end of the war. It is inevitable if Russia continues to fail in its war aims. There will be no mediated solution whilst Putin is in power.
 Ukraine - Volume 6 - Manatee
>> The unseating of Putin is the only thing that will lead to the end of
>> the war. It is inevitable if Russia continues to fail in its war aims. There
>> will be no mediated solution whilst Putin is in power.

That might be true but there had better be one at some point. The alternative doesn't bear thinking about. The parties (and NATO is one of them) are currently on a path that leads to all out war, albeit that it is hopefully some time off. Putin is escalating with his "mobilisation" and is paving the way for the use of nastier weapons with his words about attacks on Russian territory and the rigged votes over the next few days.

I'm pretty sure the other big dogs in the army and the Kremlin can see this. No doubt some of them think it's a good idea. I hope not many.
Last edited by: Manatee on Thu 22 Sep 22 at 20:38
 Ukraine - Volume 6 - sooty123
Those with levers of power under putin won't turn on him until they have their snouts pulled away from the trough. When there's a clear link to them losing wealth because of putins actions then they'll act, i don't think it'll be the army, although they will be the instrument used.
 Ukraine - Volume 6 - sooty123
www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/22/russia-mobilisation-ukraine-war-army-drive?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
 Ukraine - Volume 6 - Manatee
Shocking. Hard to see how it will end well for unwilling, ill-equipped, possibly badly led new recruits facing battle hardened and highly motivated Ukrainians
 Ukraine - Volume 6 - sooty123
Much like the first wave, pretty fatally. Chewed up by Ukrainian artillery. Russian attitudes to their own rural poor haven't changed much in a long time.

Some given so little training they don't know how to change a belt fed magazine. Some given just 2 days training.


www.goodreads.com/book/show/2186055.One_Soldier_s_War_In_Chechnya this lays out the attitude and state of the Russian army, reading on twitter now it's much the same as then.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Thu 22 Sep 22 at 21:09
 Ukraine - Volume 6 - Robin O'Reliant
Russia could be losing it's friends -

www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/22/patience-with-putin-may-be-ebbing-among-friendlier-countries
 Ukraine - Volume 6 - henry k
>> Russia could be losing it's friends -
>>
But he still has former Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63005402
 Ukraine - Volume 6 - Robin O'Reliant
>>
>> >>
>> But he still has former Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi
>> www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63005402
>>
>>

Berlusconi then backtracked, saying his statement had been "Oversimplified".

In other words, he realised he had made a right tit of himself. And not for the first time.
  Ukraine - Volume 7 - sooty123
mobile.twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1573250936566325248

Seems the mobilisation is quite haphazard.

The tweet is from a bbc reporter.
  Ukraine - Volume 7 - Terry
It's quite clear that Russian logistics are poor, and processes corrupt.

With money and/or influence most who want to can avoid the mobilisation probably can.

Poor logistics means that even if they get 300,000, they may be poorly trained and ill equipped.

The full time professional "elite" of the Russian military tend to do the jobs requiring a little intelligence. Many of the frontline are often far from bright, some ex-convicts, those with limited ability to get another job. Money + food + (I assume) vodka are the main motivators.

They are likely to end up (at best) with 300,000 probably poorly trained soldiers. Whether they can coordinate uniforms, transport, weapons, ammunition, food etc to actually be effective on the front line is debatable.

It may simply be a case of Putin trying to ratchet up the pressure for a settlement to save face.

  Ukraine - Volume 7 - Robin O'Reliant
300,000 poorly trained and unmotivated conscripts are probably more of a hindrance than a help. I can see mass surrenders and desertions the first chance many of them get.
  Ukraine - Volume 7 - Fullchat
And winter is just around the corner. Requires a whole different breed of soldier to cope with arduous conditions.
 The Ukraine - Volume 7 - Kevin
The United States has warned Russia of catastrophic consequences if they use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

In an interview with NBC, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said:

"If Russia crosses this line, the consequences for it will be catastrophic. The US will respond decisively. Through private channels, we have explained in more detail what exactly this will mean."

He also said that in the next few days Washington would issue statements about imposing additional sanctions in response to the fake referendums.
 The Ukraine - Volume 7 - Robin O'Reliant
>> The United States has warned Russia of catastrophic consequences if they use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
>>
>>
>>
Those who advocate the use of nuclear weapons are on safe ground, because afterwards there will be no one left to tell them they were wrong.
 The Ukraine - Volume 7 - CGNorwich
>> The United States has warned Russia of catastrophic consequences if they use nuclear weapons in
>> Ukraine.
>>
Putin doesn’t care. He’s not taken any notice of Western threats actions and sanctions to date.
 The Ukraine - Volume 7 - zippy
Unfortunately, the failure of the conventional Russian forces have probably made the use of nuclear weapons more likely, not less likely.
 The Ukraine - Volume 7 - Terry
Unless removed by his Kremlin "friends" - an outcome entirely beyond the control of the West, Putin needs a way out to save face.

Ratcheting up the rhetoric on both sides makes it easier to initiate (via a 3rd party) settlement of some sort. The West - more sanctions, confiscation of Russian assets, undefined threats of retaliation. Russia - 300k more troops, referenda.

The nuclear threat is real, but as an optimist I would hope for a better solution - possibilities:

- agree Crimea borders - still unrecognised by UN.
- possible sacrifice of some territory in Donetsk and Luhansk
- Ukraine to join Nato
- Ukraine to join EU
- reparations for damage to Ukraine infrastructure
 The Ukraine - Volume 7 - Bromptonaut
>> - agree Crimea borders - still unrecognised by UN.
>> - possible sacrifice of some territory in Donetsk and Luhansk
>> - Ukraine to join Nato
>> - Ukraine to join EU
>> - reparations for damage to Ukraine infrastructure

Since the threat of Ukraine joining NATO was the trigger for Putin's invasion that's clearly a non starter. EU membership however is a possibility.

Would the Ukriane government accept the loss of territory?
 The Ukraine - Volume 7 - sooty123
>
>> Would the Ukriane government accept the loss of territory?
>>

Not publicly right now. Things may change, we'll know more over the autumn as the first of the conscripts arrive. From OSI it seems there's very little, if any training, given right now. Plans seem to be to increase the number to 1 million. At that point, if not before, we'll see large scale public disorder.

Recruiting offices are being burnt down and those involved in conscription shot. A fair few of those mobilised seem to be alcoholics.
 The Ukraine - Volume 7 - Kevin
>Putin doesn’t care...

Do you really think that any message like that is intended solely for Putin's ears?
 The Ukraine - Volume 7 - CGNorwich
No but he is the man with the power at the moment. Only when he gone will things change.
 The Ukraine - Volume 7 - Manatee
Nevertheless it's important that maximum strength and willingness to use it are clearly demonstrated by NATO/USA.

Economic damage to Europe might bring pressure fro some to abandon Ukraine and hope to do deals again with Russia on energy. There should be no question of that, or the costs and threat of further encroachment will be greater in future.
 The Ukraine - Volume 7 - Lygonos
Russia are full of crap re nuclear weapons.

It (the phoney threat) is being used by both sides (not including Ukraine) to justify a negotiated settlement that gives Russia a bit of Ukraine and new borders.

So the threat is only relevant as the get-out clause to stop the war dragging on ad infinitum.

Last edited by: Lygonos on Mon 26 Sep 22 at 14:31
 The Ukraine - Volume 7 - Fullchat
Whatever settlement/compromise is agreed with Ukraine being the losers. Russia has to be left in the position of 'You aren't going to pull that stunt again'.
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