From the PoV of NATO and the west the risk is of escalation. If for example the current issue with Latvia blocking access to Kaliningrad prompts Russian action then it could very quickly become a direct Russia NATO conflict.
Russia's lack of options in that scenario could see Nukes being chucked in short order.
The pressure will be for a pragmatic solution where there is a cease fire and a peace keeping force with Donbas de facto under Russian control. Putin has the off ramp of a 'victory' for domestic consumption. The west, albeit shaken from their post cold war torpor, can return to normal or at least new normal.
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