I don't think Boris will last until the next election.
He is rapidly losing back bench support and the far worse failings in the withdrawal from Afghanistan have yet to hit the fan.
Rather than wait for electoral defeat to loom, the Tories will want new leadership within the next year to give his successor time (2+ years) to recover party fortunes.
Timing - I suspect they will let Boris carry the can for the Covid failings following public enquiries - so probably next summer!
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