...it's an interesting one really. I suspect the driver will have a few questions to answer, but the black box should give a reasonably definitive verdict.
AIUI the train which was in the Tunnel was from London, whilst that which struck it was from Southampton. That would mean they were both converging on the tunnel from the same direction, but via different routes that met at points only yards from the tunnel mouth.
The red "home" signal that was apparently passed is only just over 100m from the junction, providing rather less clearance than if both trains had been on the same line running under conventional "block" working, *around 200m, I think) and therefore less room for misjudgement in braking.
If there was little or no rail adhesion, then once a certain point was passed there would be nothing the driver could do. Think braking a heavy vehicle on black ice with no ability to steer, and no skidding to slow things down. ATP, AWS or any other system would be of absolutely no use at that point (albeit they would react, ineffectively, to the SPAD).
Conjecture, but it looks to me as if the driver was relying on late-braking, and got caught out by the adhesion problems, BUT, the lack of adhesion wouldn't have happened at the drop of a hat. Previous trains should probably have noted something (unless, of course, all had had the free route beforehand). Even in my day of being on the rails, such issues would have gone reported, and fairly quickly - nowadays, with onboard communications, that is much easier.
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Salisbury train crash. new
Salisbury train crash. new