I expect you are right but this is a double blind trial and only a very select group of people are seeing the results, and then only once it is nearing completion.
There is a lot of sleuthing going on by some good "researchers" though and they are finding all kinds of clues, some of which turn out to be red herrings but others turn out to be extremely good, like the latest, which is that the NIH trial protocol has been re-written to include some very specific stuff on on the specific drug in Phase 3. The draft was found a few days back and what looks like the issued version yesterday, though release of this version hasn't yet been announced. It is now, however, "in the wild" as it's been linked to from an open forum.
So although the company are likely to have known about that being released at some point, the punters and institutional investors (and the market makers) may be a few days behind on that specific document. There is an expectation of a much larger jump when progression to Phase 3 announced, which must be imminent. It's always good to be ahead of the game!!
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