Follow the money is probably right.
The career kudos and money that would come from identifying the next big breakthrough would be massive. As well as the knowledgeable, scentifically and professionally credible, there is no doubt a long list of chancers, delusional, and crooked.
Large drugs companies employ people who properly understand the science and put their money where they see the best chances.
This does not mean all smaller organisations or individuals will be incapable - but my money would go with those whose work is highly regarded and funded by large companies and a consensus of the scientifically competent.
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