It all depends how rapidly the vaccine is rolled out.
15m most vulnerable people make up 90% of deaths.
If the vaccine is rolled out at 2m pw, by mid March death rates will reduce by ~90%. Even if infections increase, extreme NHS pressure will have largely gone.
Personally once I am vaccinated I will want to get back to fairly normal rapidly. Younger people will expect to be let off the leash when it is clear granny is unlikely to die.
Thus the prospect of significant lockdown restrictions being enforceable post end March is close to zero - I and many other would frankly ignore them.
|