Good post. But I think 20,000 is pie in the sky given the rapidity with which fatalities are increasing.
At some point the tolerance for continued adherence to "guidance" will become increasingly weak. Younger people with reduced risk, and those who have built up immunity will want life to return to normal. They will not want to perpetuate lockdown for the sake of the "oldies" with the major impacts on education, jobs, income etc.
To maintain isolation etc will ultimately need troops on the streets etc etc. This is not what any government would want. So the question is:
- for how long can lockdown be an effective strategy
- how can it be dismantled, progressively, by age, by tested immunity, by region or town
The only hope on the horizon which could make an early resolution possible are (a) vaccine, or (b) drugs making infection less severe. Time scale for the former is a year+, and for better treatment probably several months.
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