>>Putin gets the hell out of Crimea, the oil Sheikhs reverse the free flow of oil, oil prices go back up and Russia's economy improves because of its oil exports?
If that were the only concern, then yes. However, there are so many other factors involved, that a certain amount of it now is inevitable. The rest is dependent on who blinks first; and that may not be Putin or Russia.
Some other factors to consider;
Iraq depends massively on oil revenue.
Some of the other OPEC countries, whilst not as dependent as Iraq, are going to get into cack at some point.
Low oil prices are currently stopping fuel competitors getting into the game, since there isn't the revenue to invest in them. If fuel prices go up, there will be. That may well cost OPEC market share, and thus impact and power.
A destablised or poor Russia impacts on other countries. Other countries are aware of this and wish to avoid it.
If in the future the Russians establish their fuel at a higher price than it is now, but lower than OPEC, they will disrupt the market. And with 15% of the world's supply, they might.
The price of oil has dropped because of excess supply. However, inside that is tapering demand, the arrival of new sources (e.g. shale), previous disruptions impacting supply are lessening (e.g. Libya), alternative power sources etc. etc.
Thus, if OPEC restrict supply, rather than increasing price increases in the long term (although they would in the short term) they are quite likely to increase the presence of alternative sources thus causing a potentially long term drop in their revenue and lessening of their influence.
At times of high inflation Russians historically do not save, they spend. Lessening both the impact of an economic crisis and subsequent recovery (although clearly there is point of catastrophe).
Last edited by: No FM2R on Wed 17 Dec 14 at 14:29
|
The Rouble 
The Rouble 