Westpig I think is ignoring that politics is a supreme example of "nudge theory" in operation.
No mainstream party wants to leave the EU, and hardly any supporters actually want to leave. They say they do, because the only way to shift a party in a particular direction is to nudge, or in this case shove, by applying pressure from one side. Often threatening the ultimate is the only way of making a modest shift.
UKIP is just part of the same process but from a position that is actually off the Conservative scale. The merit, probably the only merit, of UKIP is to nudge the Conservatives into adopting a more robust negotiating position. They have nothing more in common than a tug has with an ocean liner, so any kind of pact would be pointless.
Paradoxically UKIP's other policy appeals to exactly the opposite end of the spectrum, to the left-behind labour voters with no or disappearing jobs, the poor whites. That is not "nudge" territory, because they are left behind by history, and no one is interested in changing the march of economic change.
As I said before, the Conservative deserters will drift back when the nudge has succeeded, but the disillusionment of the labour supporters ought to be a greater worry to Labour, because the leaders have boxed themselves into a corner by refusing to countenance any shift.
Last edited by: Cliff Pope on Sat 7 Jun 14 at 08:40
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