| Non-motoring > Trump Vol 2 | Miscellaneous |
Thread Author: smokie |
Replies: 26 |
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New Tue 8 Apr 25 14:16
Trump Vol 2 - smokie
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For continued Trumping 678782 Last edited by: smokie on Tue 8 Apr 25 at 14:20
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New Fri 4 Apr 25 13:20
Trump - CGNorwich
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Markets in free fall. FTSE down 3.9% Dow expected to open down 5% as China retaliates with 34% tarrif Recession coming at best. Depression at worst. 1930s all over again. |
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New Fri 4 Apr 25 14:50
Trump - zippy
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>> Markets in free fall. FTSE down 3.9% Dow expected to open down 5% as China >> retaliates with 34% tarrif >> >> Recession coming at best. Depression at worst. 1930s all over again. >> Yep. I dare not look at my pension pot later. I would find it hilarious if all output went to every other country in the world and not the USA, deliberately avoiding selling to the USA. The surplus could even reduce prices for everyone else and drive up prices in the USA due to scarcity there. |
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New Fri 4 Apr 25 16:20
Trump - smokie
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I may have had some fortunate timings with my pots 1) Due largely to Rachel's potential attack on tax free element I took out the entire tax free amount from my pots, which completed last month. The date of withdrawal from my main pension almost exactly matched it's highest ever single day value, thus maximising my take. 2) My big pot is with Royal London, in one of their governed funds. It was in the riskiest fund, which gave the greatest return. At the same time as taking out the tax free I moved it into the more cautious one, thinking I'd had a good run (nearly 14% in the preceding year) and something would hit the market sooner or later. On Wed I was quite a few thou better off than had I not moved it, which last night grew even more, and I'm sure that gap will widen today (but of course even the cautious fund is taking quite a hit though). Still a major concern though. FTSE, which is a bit of a barometer for my pension, is currently over 4% down today. It'll come back though, probably with a vengeance, when the turmoil settles and Trump has to roll back some of the changes, or we come to some sort of agreement, or whatever.. Last edited by: smokie on Fri 4 Apr 25 at 16:22
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New Fri 4 Apr 25 18:37
Trump - CGNorwich
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“It'll come back though, probably with a vengeance, when the turmoil settles and Trump has to roll back some of the changes, or we come to some sort of agreement, or whatever” I admire your optimism but I fear that we are merely at the brink of a deep and far ranging recession. |
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New Fri 4 Apr 25 18:48
Trump - Manatee
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>> I admire your optimism but I fear that we are merely at the brink of >> a deep and far ranging recession. >> I agree. There is no scenario here in which this is not a disaster. None of these tariffs is targeted in anyway at unfair trade practices, secret government subsidies, unfair treatment of the US etc. I don't think we can imagine how bad this could be. Even if he swept it all away tomorrow, tremendous harm has been done. |
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New Fri 4 Apr 25 18:59
Trump - zippy
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No tariffs against Russia (though no trade with Russia). Ruin the West' economy. Are we sure he isn't a Russian asset? |
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New Fri 4 Apr 25 18:58
Trump - Terry
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Talk of turmoil and market collapse is typical media spin. The FTSE 100 share index only broke the 8000 barrier a year ago (22nd April 2024). It started to rise towards 8600-8800 from January 2025 - following Trumps election and despite his already open views on tariffs. The fall over the last day or so currently leaves it over 8000 - above the level a year ago. It may be a short term reaction, or possibly a more fundamental shift in values - even those in the market don't know - they simply respond to supply, demand and emotion. Congratulations on getting the timing right - sadly I failed having used my ISA allowance a couple of months ago on an index based investment. Annoying but hardly a problem as I see these sort of investments as very long term to balance loans and property assets, not part of the pension plan in which case I may feel rather differently. |
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New Fri 4 Apr 25 19:09
Trump - Zero
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>> Talk of turmoil and market collapse is typical media spin. >> >> The FTSE 100 share index only broke the 8000 barrier a year ago (22nd April >> 2024). It started to rise towards 8600-8800 from January 2025 - following Trumps election and >> despite his already open views on tariffs. Its supposed to grow in value, how much higher would it be if it hadnt had the fall, over trumps turmoil, (and covid come to that) Its a financial loss and confidence loss, a no matter how much you claim its "spin" The S&P, Dow, and NASDAQ are down to the lows of the Covid shock. Its not spin, merely factual. However, Its only money www.youtube.com/watch?v=LtFyP0qy9XU&ab_channel=Movieclips Last edited by: Zero on Fri 4 Apr 25 at 19:13
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New Fri 4 Apr 25 19:21
Trump - smokie
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If you look at the FTSE for the last 5 years it is almost hard to distinguish the Truss trough. rb.gy/6jqapo I know this is on a different scale but the market recovered from that loss fairly quickly and has risen significantly since. Once the dust has settled and the world understands the new order (and that's assuming it isn't reversed in any way) I am reasonably hopeful that this will turn out to be just another blip. Note hopeful not confident!! Last edited by: smokie on Fri 4 Apr 25 at 19:28
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New Sat 5 Apr 25 11:36
Trump - Manatee
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>> If you look at the FTSE for the last 5 years it is almost hard >> to distinguish the Truss trough. >> >> rb.gy/6jqapo >> >> I know this is on a different scale but the market recovered from that loss >> fairly quickly and has risen significantly since. The cause was removed fairly quickly. That's what needs to happen now. A nice short article on Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. www.britannica.com/topic/Smoot-Hawley-Tariff-Act |
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New Fri 4 Apr 25 19:33
Trump - Robin O'Reliant
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>> Talk of turmoil and market collapse is typical media spin. >> >> >> Economic forecasters exist to make horse racing tipsters look good. You've only got to look at how 99% of them were caught with their pants down when the banking system started to collapse to see that. In truth nobody knows what the effect will be till we get there. |
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New Fri 4 Apr 25 21:18
Trump - Manatee
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>> Talk of turmoil and market collapse is typical media spin. That's alright then. I wonder how much dodgy trading has been going on. Trump may be a lunatic but he will know very well what the impact of his announcement would be. And assuming he left his presentation aid lying around while waiting for the market to close I'm pretty sure a few of those crooks surrounding him, and perhaps the chief felon himself, will have set up their trades as well. If something changes his mind almost overnight the immediate damage may be limited. But if he sticks with this you're looking at a world recession. Inflation, stagnation, failing companies, credit crisis, whatever you can think of and worse. Starvation in the developing world if the ROTW is daft enough to be split. China has responded with a tit for tat 34% tariff, disregarding Trump's invitation to negotiate. Not targeted, calculated, or logical in any way except as to calling Trump's bluff. What do you think are the chances of Trump bamboozling Xi? |
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New Sat 5 Apr 25 09:35
Trump - Terry
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>> If something changes his mind almost overnight the immediate damage may be limited. But if >> he sticks with this you're looking at a world recession. Inflation, stagnation, failing companies, credit >> crisis, whatever you can think of and worse. Starvation in the developing world if the >> ROTW is daft enough to be split. >> >> China has responded with a tit for tat 34% tariff, disregarding Trump's invitation to negotiate. >> Not targeted, calculated, or logical in any way except as to calling Trump's bluff. What >> do you think are the chances of Trump bamboozling Xi? >> Trumps actions are economically illiterate and will ultimately be most damaging to his lower income supporters. Best current estimates are that the UK economy may take a hit of around 1%. An analogy - Mr/Mrs Average on £30k pa having an unexpected £300 bill - unwelcome but hardly catastrophic. "World recession", "stagnation", "starvation", "credit crisis" etc - is (IMHO) a gross overstatement. A few on the brink (countries and companies) will struggle or fail, most will adapt. |
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New Sat 5 Apr 25 10:36
Trump - Manatee
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You are betting a lot on this being reversed or substantially ameliorated very quickly. Of course there would be a new equilibrium but it will be very damaging and much less trivial than 1% tweak to GDP if this holds. I suggest looking at the causes of, and the scale of damage caused by, the great depression. We have a bias towards optimism because our generation in our bubble has not experienced the scale on which bad things can happen in the same way as our parents and grandparents. I am very hopeful that the nightmare will end soon but if it doesn't it will be more than a bump in the road. |
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New Fri 4 Apr 25 19:18
Trump - Kevin
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>Yep. I dare not look at my pension pot later. >I would find it hilarious if all output went to every other country in >the world and not the USA,.. Most pension companies offer a range of funds to suit a customer's risk profile and personal preferences. You could always contact them and tell them you don't want any of your money invested in feelthy American stocks. |
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New Fri 4 Apr 25 21:43
Trump - Manatee
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| US stocks by value are 70% of the world. |
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New Sat 5 Apr 25 09:21
Trump - Terry
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>> US stocks by value are 70% of the world. >> Not sure of the relevance of this save to stir anti US/Trump sentiment. The US stock market capitalisation is apparently 50% of the global total www.visualcapitalist.com/124-trillion-global-stock-market-by-region/ As the US share of global GDP is "just" 27%, I assume most listings on the US are companies the bulk of whose trade is outside the US. They choose to list in the US due to regulation (or lack of it), ease of raising finance, and volume of trade creating a robust market. Such companies are unlikely to choose India, China, Russia etc. A number of UK companies are listed in the US including Unilever, Shell, Astra Zeneca, HSBC, RTZ, Diageo, to name but a few. |
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New Fri 4 Apr 25 22:02
Trump - zippy
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| I shouldn't have looked! |
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New Sat 5 Apr 25 13:34
Trump - Zero
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| Markets can handle change, Its one of the reasons they exist in the first place. What they dont like and cant handle is FUD. Fear, uncertainty and doubt. Nothing will promote FUD more than unpredictable, badly planned and implemented, knee jerk, rapid, variable flavour of the month change. Everything Trump has done and is capable of doing again. |
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New Sat 5 Apr 25 14:33
Trump - Manatee
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>> Markets can handle change, Its one of the reasons they exist in the first place. True, but that's a bit like saying climate change won't endanger the earth. The extinction of human life won't rock the axis even one degree. >> What they dont like and cant handle is FUD. Fear, uncertainty and doubt. Nothing will >> promote FUD more than unpredictable, badly planned and implemented, knee jerk, rapid, variable flavour of >> the month change. Everything Trump has done and is capable of doing again. And just as capable of reversing at any time. Which you'd think very hard about if you were considering building a new US manufacturing facility under the shelter of the new tariff regime. Even if he doesn't relent, he's only there for four years. Not really long enough to build your factories, recover your investment, make your money and get out. The experiment has been done before, from about 1920-1934. |
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New Sun 6 Apr 25 10:32
Trump - Manatee
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I'd actually quite like to hear that Starmer had spoken to Trump or his relevant nodding donkey on behalf of Lesotho. Lesotho's total exports are about $1bn a year, of which c. $200m (20%) goes to the US. Lesotho imports almost nothing from the US, so in the-world-according-to-Trump Lesotho is charging the USA 100% tariff on the goods the USA imports from them. Trump therefore imposes a 50% tariff on imports from Lesotho. The imports from Lesotho are mainly diamonds, and Levi and Wrangler denim trousering. Things Americans presumably want to buy without paying an extra 50%. What sort of moron can construe that the US's failure to sell anything to the people of Lesotho is a 100% tariff on the non-existent US exports to that country? |
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New Tue 8 Apr 25 15:54
Trump Vol 2 - Manatee
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China says it won't back down on its 34% matching tariff despite Trump's stated intention to raise the stakes with a further 50% tariff on the importation of Chinese goods, payable of course by the importer and ultimately American consumers, taking the total to 104%. Personally I'm inclined to believe the Chinese. It seems unlikely that Tim Cook is going to be super-happy with this, we'll see how far his patriotism extends. Meanwhile, Vice-Moron Vance, in an attempt to butter-up the Chinese, said ""We borrow money from Chinese peasants to buy the things those Chinese peasants manufacture". The Chinese have presumably misunderstood this no doubt well-intended compliment and describe him as "ignorant". I'm interested to see what happens between now and when Trump announces his great negotiating victory. The Chinese are AIUI among the leading holders of US Treasury bonds. |
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New Tue 8 Apr 25 16:26
Trump Vol 2 - Robin O'Reliant
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Trump is apparently going to back Vance as the next presidential candidate with the understanding that he will be chosen as vice president and Vance will stand down and let him take over. I can see an obvious flaw in that. "Hang on a minute, I was the one elected, why should I...? |
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New Tue 8 Apr 25 16:52
Trump Vol 2 - zippy
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>>Tim Cook... Is already ramping up manufacturing in India which has lower tariffs to the USA. iProducts (tm - me) for everyone else will be made in China. |
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New Tue 8 Apr 25 18:00
Trump Vol 2 - Kevin
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>I agree that it's about using what we would consider to be unfit meat. In what way is it unfit meat? >But but but - if we want streamlined procedures with the EU, or >ultimately a customs union, low standards become a problem - the EU does >not want sub-standard food coming here and potentially getting into the >EU. I thought the immediate problem was to fix what you raised as a potential roadblock to a trade deal? You're actually more concerned about what EU bureaucrats might think at some indeterminate time in the future? |
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New Tue 8 Apr 25 18:11
Trump Vol 2 - CGNorwich
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verse.press/poem/the-heathen-chinee-24519 the dnagers of gambling with the Chinese |
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