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Continuing discussion.
657139
Last edited by: VxFan on Thu 15 Jun 23 at 11:12
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We should have done it ages ago. There's sod all difference between supplying them with APC/IFVs or tanks. All this "You first." "No, you first." is BS.
We should also remind them about all those long range missiles they have in storage. The ones we sold to them about the same time as Iran sold drones to Russia.
Well done to Greece though for openly telling Scholz that he should prioritise sending the Marders to Ukraine before sending any more replacements for their old Soviet BMPs. It cuts off another excuse for doing nothing although Scholz is probably still in hiding this week.
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Agree with Kevin here.
The few countries in the West that have helped Ukraine against Russia is dismal, especially when considering some of the richest countries in the world, the response has been pitiful.
It's acknowledged that Ukraine is not a NATO member, but the perceived enemy is the same. Makes one wonder what their reaction would be if our airfields were targeted. My guess they would still be sitting on their hands looking for ways to get out of their obligations.
Bad enough that many NATO members have not been paying the agreed amount on defence. It's like turning up at a party with a can of beer for yourself only when everyone else brings a bottle of decent wine.
I bet you those countries will be aggressively bidding for the reconstruction contracts though.
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Bad enough that many NATO members have not been paying the agreed amount on defence.
>> It's like turning up at a party with a can of beer for yourself only
>> when everyone else brings a bottle of decent wine.
>>
>
Defence isn't particularly interesting to most voters in Europe, it's cheaper to get the US to pay for defence instead.
That may change for some countries, Poland in particular is spending much more, the rest I don't think this war will change much.
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>> We should also remind them about all those long range missiles they have in storage.
>> The ones we sold to them about the same time as Iran sold drones to
>> Russia.
Who do you mean?
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>Who do you mean?
Ukraine.
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>> >Who do you mean?
>>
>> Ukraine.
Yeah sure do that - IF you want a Nuclear war on your hands.
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>> >> >Who do you mean?
>> >>
>> >> Ukraine.
>>
>> Yeah sure do that - IF you want a Nuclear war on your hands.
>>
It's almost the same as a bully hitting you and if you retaliate, then the bully kills you for daring to stand up for yourself.
When this all started last year I mentioned how Ukraine must be ruing the day they gave up their nuclear weapons for assurances that they would be "looked after".
I think the drip of arms to Ukraine are a huge mistake. The West should have provided overwhelming support from day one. Kill the invader in one go rather than going at it piecemeal, allowing them to re-group. A bit like not taking a full dose of antibiotics and seeing the bug return more virulently when a mega dose at the beginning would have done the job.
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>> A bit like not taking a full
>> dose of antibiotics and seeing the bug return more virulently when a mega dose at
>> the beginning would have done the job.
The bug (Russia) can turn your body (Ukrain) into a smoking hole in the ground in a heartbeat. (the Nuclear option)
Its quite good the way things are turning out actually. the Russian army is bleeding a long and slow death in disarray. Their economic and industrial ability is shot The leadership has lost global respect and the hold on power internally is increasingly tenuous. The fear of the all mighty Russian army is down the toilet. Nato has a renewed mandate with more members on the Russian Border.
In short its a disaster for them
And its cost us what? Little wonder we, the west, dont want or need to do more.
At the moment.
Last edited by: Zero on Tue 10 Jan 23 at 15:08
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All of that but Putin has also managed to severely disrupt economies across the world with his gas and petrol, and stealing Ukraine grain.
I said years ago to some mates that the way to beat an adversary isn't through violence and bloodshed, it's through cyber crime or economic crime - anything but actual war.
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>> All of that but Putin has also managed to severely disrupt economies across the world
>> with his gas and petrol, and stealing Ukraine grain.
Result being no future dependency on Russia = Future Russian influence dissipated.
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>Yeah sure do that - IF you want a Nuclear war on your hands.
NATO has already supplied Ukraine with drones that can reach well into Russia. No different to supplying them with extended range MLRS missiles.
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>> >Yeah sure do that - IF you want a Nuclear war on your hands.
>>
>> NATO has already supplied Ukraine with drones that can reach well into Russia. No different
>> to supplying them with extended range MLRS missiles.
With instructions NOT to use them in Russian Territory. The moment the Ukrainians use Western weapons to hit Russian territory, western support stops.
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What do you think hit Engels and Dyagilevo?
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>> What do you think hit Engels and Dyagilevo?
>>
It wasn't ordinance supplied to Ukraine by the west since the war started, Israel does not count as "The West"
Last edited by: Zero on Tue 10 Jan 23 at 19:52
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>It wasn't ordinance supplied to Ukraine by the west since the war started, Israel does not count as "The West"
Nowt to do with Israel. Russian media reported that they were Bayraktar supplied by Turkey.
The fact is that Ukraine have hit military assets inside Russia with weapons that Russia claims were supplied by a NATO member after the war started and no-one has batted an eyelid.
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>> The fact is that Ukraine have hit military assets inside Russia with weapons that Russia
>> claims were supplied by a NATO member after the war started and no-one has batted
>> an eyelid.
because everyone knows its cobblers for russian internal audience only.
jeez I am glad you have naff all to do with Nato, you have the strategy and diplomatic skills of a drain cover. We'd all be dead by now under your guidance.
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You seem to have ignored why no-one has kicked up a fuss about Ukraine hitting targets inside Russia. No denials that it was NATO kit and military aid hasn't stopped as you profess. And as long as Ukraine sticks to military assets I don't think anyone outside Russia gives a hoot.
Strategy and diplomacy lessons from you?
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>> Strategy and diplomacy lessons from you?
merely pointing out the way the west is playing it, and as Russia is in a bind, and we are all still alive, they seem to be doing quite well by ignoring your advice.
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>..they seem to be doing quite well by ignoring your advice.
Obviously you and I have somewhat different views of what "doing quite well" means beause from a military stanspoint I think they are doing an excellent job with the resources they have.
However, at a politial level I see an uncoordinated mess with half-wit politicians hedging their bets and dithering, some taking advantage of the conflict to settle old scores and others playing to the gallery and jockeying for position in whatever the postwar situation will be.
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It's ordnance.
An ordinance is a rule or law.
Standing in for Duncan.
8o)
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>> >Who do you mean?
>>
>> Ukraine.
>>
Sorry I'm probably being dim, but what long range missiles did we sell to Ukraine at the same time as Russia was buying drones from Iran?
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>..what long range missiles did we sell to Ukraine at the same time as Russia was buying drones from Iran?
We didn't, but if Russia and Iran want to continue their facade of claiming that the drones being used against Ukraine were all supplied before Feb '22 there is no reason why we shouldn't do the same.
They are lying. They know that we know they are lying. Let's cut the BS and make them aware that two can play that game.
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>
>> They are lying. They know that we know they are lying. Let's cut the BS
>> and make them aware that two can play that game.
>>
Such messages aren't meant for us, they are for internal consumption.
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It wasn't for internal consumption. It was a denial to the international community. So much so that Iran offered to send people to UKraine to see the evidence.
www.politico.eu/article/iran-russia-drone-war-ukraine-hossein-amirabdollahian/
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I think you're reading it too literally, in Russia those that publicly lie and aren't challenged on it are reinforcing their position in the eyes of the people.
It's continous, it's saying look how I can lie, outragously so and not be challenged. It lets people know who is in charge. It's a mindset within Russia, whoever follows Putin will be similar.
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Those statements were from Iran and have been challenged at the UN.
I'm also well aware of the Russian mindset about lying. You must have read the same piece by a Russian exile that I did.
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It was a finnish ex-int colonel, recommended watching by someone at work. He does a 45 min presentation on yt.
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German media are reporting that Scholz is seriously P'd off at the moment because Poland said last week that they will transfer Leopard tanks to Ukraine. Finland has said that they will send a few if that's OK with everyone else and we said that we'll be sending Challenger.
Berlin responded by saying that they have not received an official request for approval to transfer German made tanks to Ukraine and doing so without permission would be illegal.
BILD now reporting that Lambrecht has resigned although not announced officially.
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I think some of his collation have also put pressure on him to send them. It's all merely a matter of time.
Zelensky wants enough tanks ( and people trained) to fill 3 brigades before the late spring, he may well get them.
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Lambrecht resignation is now on the BBC.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64288267
which ends with the line "It is not yet clear who will succeed Ms Lambrecht in a job which is considered such a poisoned chalice that many refer to it as "the ejector seat"."
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Well, he's a slippery sod.
I thought the announcements by other European leaders would have embarrassed Scholz enough for him to follow suit in supplying tanks to Ukraine. I was wrong.
This weekend he's wheeled out the Chairman of Rheinmetall to give an interview to Bild am Sontag where he told them that they have 110 Leopard tanks in storage but they need recommissioning and the earliest they could begin delivery would be 2024.
Last edited by: Kevin on Sun 15 Jan 23 at 22:18
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>>2024.
Better have a conference with the Ruskies then. Will Zoom be ok, ask them not to invade until the Leopards are ready.
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Apparently he's due to give an important speech at the end of this week regarding Germany sending/allowing others to send tanks.
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It’s 90 years today since the Nazi party came to power and here we are urging Germany to send tanks to a neighbouring country. Funny old world isn’t it?
Some background information on Scholz’s reasoning.
www.ft.com/content/9e0e5ed8-a924-469d-bea7-dc0de81f2c82
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>> It’s 90 years today since the Nazi party came to power
Its just like the good old days, German tanks rolling across the Ukraine pointing towards Moscow
Whats Stalingrad called these days?
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>>Whats Stalingrad called these days?
Rhetorical question? Volgograd I think.
The most shocking thing about the Nazis is that Hitler didn't seize power, he was elected democratically.
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>> >>Whats Stalingrad called these days?
>>
>> Rhetorical question? Volgograd I think.
Yes and no. Aware it had been renamed several times, didnt know what the current flavour was. Wont be long before its called Putingrad.
>> The most shocking thing about the Nazis is that Hitler didn't seize power, he was
>> elected democratically.
Err thats a bit of a stretch, in theory yes, but it did include trying to overthrow the government by armed force, setting fire to the Reichstag along the way, and killing and throwing the opposition in jail. Ok at one point he did make himself popular.
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>>Wont be long before its called Putingrad.
He'll either get a grad, or be airbrushed out like Trotsky.
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Wallace announces aid package consisting of:
A squadron of Challenger 2 with armoured support & recovery
AS90 Self Prop guns
100,000 shells
100 advanced missiles
100 armoured vehicles (incl. Bulldog APC)
Spares for Challenger and armour
www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk-defence-minister-sets-out-further-military-aid-package-ukraine-2023-01-16/
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Quick question from a numpty...
Why are we making it public knowledge what we are sending to the Ukraine ?
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>> Quick question from a numpty...
>> Why are we making it public knowledge what we are sending to the Ukraine ?
1/ you cant hide transporting tanks (specially self propelled guns, they is big)
2/ Its a message
Last edited by: Zero on Mon 16 Jan 23 at 22:15
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>> >> Quick question from a numpty...
>> >> Why are we making it public knowledge what we are sending to the Ukraine
>> ?
>>
>> 1/ you cant hide transporting tanks (specially self propelled guns, they is big)
>> 2/ Its a message
>>
and the intelligence services (Russian) probably knew about it before the government anyway.
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Seems the German government is still dithering. Poland's government said they may send Leopard tanks without permission if this impasse drags on much longer.
The dutch government said they'll consider any Ukrainian requests for F-16s with an open mind. Any transfer like that really would be a step up.
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Afraid I no longer accept the endless excuses as 'dithering'. It's a deliberate attempt to frustrate the supply of any weapons that could possibly be used in offensive operations.
Do you honestly believe that after 11 months of war on their doorstep and all the international pressure they don't know how many £$%^ing tanks they have?
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At the meeting yesterday the German defence minister said that there is no concensus amongst the 15 members, he denied it was Germany against everyone else.
Sholtz wants the US to send their tanks first to give him some cover, the US don't want to for various reasons. Mainly the M1 is too maintainance heavy for the ukr to deal with in a war and this demand by Germany is just a smokescreen, even if they did they'd find another excuse. Seems to be a case of, it's your decision own it, don't blame us.
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More rumours/reports coming out in German press about last week's meetings, saying that there were 'harsh words' between Lloyd Austin and Scholz's advisor Wolfgang Schmidt. Other attendees reacted with 'anger and open-mouthed disbelief' to statements from Pistorius.
CNN is also quoting a German govt. spokesman as saying today that "To this hour we have not received a request (to give the OK). And if they ask, then there is a certain procedure. I can't tell you whether that will take a few days or several months.“
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CNN is also quoting a German govt. spokesman as saying today that "To this hour
>> we have not received a request (to give the OK). And if they ask, then
>> there is a certain procedure. I can't tell you whether that will take a few
>> days or several months.“
>>
That's at odds to their foreign minister last night. Clearly there's a big split in the government over this issue.
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"I have a piece of paper from Herr Putin...."
Scholtz comes across as a Moscow stooge.
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I read an opinion piece over the weekend where the author claimed that a senior (unnamed) diplomat had said that Scholz's actions were "like acid, eating away every layer of trust we had."
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Scholz makes me think of how Corbyn would be reacting....
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Phew, that's a relief.
Pistorius assures everyone that everything's going great. "Move on, nothing to see here."
"You often hear that there is a lack of unity among the Allies, or that Germany is isolated. But this is not true at all. I urge everyone, and I made it clear at our Ramstein meeting, not to give the impression that there are differences among the Allies. There are some partners who are still analyzing their decisions and other partners who want to move faster, but we are not divided. So this is an ongoing process."
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>..they don't know how many £$%^ing tanks they have?
Der Spiegel has told Pistorius how many Leopard 2 he has. As of last May there were 312 of various mod levels. Since then, 99 are currently under maintenance and 1 has been written off so they have 212 operational.
19 of the older 2A5 version are used purely to move around emulating enemy forces in exercises so could be transfered to Ukraine with negligible effect on defence capability.
He probably doesn't read DS though.
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It depends on what 'operational' means in this case. Probably not quite what DS thinks it is.
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I think it was more of an unsubtle kick in the nuts for Pistorius. They even had a breakdown of how many of each version.
:-)
The Polish PM has had another dig:
"If Germany does not agree to the Leopard, then we will build a smaller coalition of states ready to share their modern tanks with Ukraine. We will not just watch Ukraine bleed.... It now depends on Germany whether they want to join the mission and stop Russian barbarism, or choose to watch silently and go down in history as those who were on the wrong side."
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The CDU/CSU have managed to get a debate on the timetable for tomorrow.
They want to "stop the leopard blockade of the federal government and fear a loss of confidence in the federal government among its allies."
Putin has told the SPD he wants his money back ;-)
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Ahhh.
I'd wondered why Germany didn't kick up as much fuss about supplying Gepard to Ukraine, especially when the Gepard can also fire armour piercing rounds. It turns out that the ammo for Gepard is produced in Switzerland who, being neutral, refused additional shipments when Ukraine started to get low.
It now looks as if Switzerland also got a kicking at Ramstein and might be about to drop it's objections to other nations handing over more ammo and even Swiss kit to Ukraine.
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I see it's official now, German & US tanks will be going to Ukraine.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64391272
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I heard somebody say on the wireless that the Leopard is what they really want/need. There are quite a lot around, they are on the doorstep, and they burn diesel. The Abrams M1 was said to burn petrol which I don't think is the case as it is powered by a turbine engine. The Abrams is also said to need a lot of maintenance.
For the Germans to say they will provide tanks if the US does seems perverse in implying that the US needs to do its bit, when in fact the US has already provided many times more weapons than everybody else put together.
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The Abrams can run on petrol/diesel/kerosene.
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No electric version then? :-)
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>>No electric version then? :-)
Heh heh - not like having a gigantic battery would upset the weight I guess, and a 1500hp electric motor is technically simple, but it uses 2 gallons per mile of fuel so the battery would have to be be mahoooosive!
tanks-encyclopedia.com/40-ton-electric-drive-main-battle-tank-e-d-m-b-t/
Looks like an electric drive but combustion engine, a bit like a diesel-electric train.
Some mention of Lithium cells but "not mature enough tech".
Last edited by: Lygonos on Wed 25 Jan 23 at 12:08
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>> Some mention of Lithium cells but "not mature enough tech".
Now they would burn more than the rest.
Tesla should make some, put them into autonomous ai mode so they could crash into the ruskie tanks
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>>Tesla should make some, put them into autonomous ai mode so they could crash into the ruskie tanks
Surprised we don't see road-going suicide drones yet. I presume blocking signals would be relatively easy compared to aerial drones.
Lithium Iron Phosphate (LiFePo) appear much more resistant to burning (plus no cobalt and cheaper to make) - Tesla stick them in their shorter range cars just now (they hold less charge for a given volume though)
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LFP batteries do have the advantage though that you can charge them regularly to 100% without battery degradation. In fact they recommend it.
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>Surprised we don't see road-going suicide drones yet.
We have them in Basingstoke. They're called Clio or Corsa but I think they're having problems with the intelligence mechanism.
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>> We have them in Basingstoke. They're called Clio or Corsa but I think they're having
>> problems with the intelligence mechanism.
>>
They have AI in Basingstoke, Amoeba Intelligence.
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>They have AI in Basingstoke, Amoeba Intelligence.
Don't knock it. Progress is progress.
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>> The Abrams can run on petrol/diesel/kerosene.
Whichever fuel is used the turbine engine is reported to be very thirsty.
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Seems they are planning on giving 60 tanks to Ukraine, I think they are past that already. Upto 70 have been announced as donated, along with UK and US tanks that's about 120.
I don't think they'll get the 300 they are after.
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31 Abrams plus 8 support vehicles going to Ukraine. Let's hope they go Fedex and not DHL.
PS, It's Zelensky's 45th birthday today.
Last edited by: Kevin on Wed 25 Jan 23 at 19:22
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>> 31 Abrams plus 8 support vehicles going to Ukraine. Let's hope they go Fedex and
>> not DHL.
>>
.. they'll probably get left behind a hedge on the Russian side of the front line....
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Let's hope they go Fedex and not DH
....even worse (n)Everi....
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"Whichever fuel is used the turbine engine is reported to be very thirsty."
Oh for the days of Green Shield stamps
www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUSASVsCglk
Last edited by: smokie on Wed 25 Jan 23 at 12:59
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>Oh for the days of Green Shield stamps
/* Trivia alert */
Green Shield tried to make a comeback in the late 80s. I commissioned the company IT system for them (probably the reason they went tu again ;-)).
New head office was in Sutton and I pitched up there one day just as the original founder arrived in a blue Roller with the number plate "OO7" which had been bought for him by the reviving management team.
His chauffer was about 20yo, 6' tall, dressed in an immaculate light grey uniform and black peaked cap. She was a stunner.
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Ukranian troops have pulled out of Soledar leaving it to the Ruskies. Just too much being thrown at them.
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Information coming out that Germany approached Brazil to supply tank ammunition to be transferred to Ukraine. Brazil refused because they didn't want to upset Putin.
Interesting point is that the request was for 105mm shells which are for obsolete Leopard 1s, not 120mm shells for Leopard 2.
Looks like Germany was hoping to get away with promising to provide Leopard 1s. As soon as they could be returned to working condition of course.
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Do the Germans have any Leopard 1s in storage?
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Rheinmetall have 100 in storage which they offered to "sell" to Ukraine last year.
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I wonder what state they are in?
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>I wonder what state they are in?
Wanna buy one? They're not ULEZ but I don't think you'd have any trouble parking.
As a guess I'd say they're what Rheinmetall have kept to cannibalise for spares. They're still in use with Brazil, Chile, Greece etc. Brazil did us all a favour by telling Germany to FO.
On another note: Transfer of 321 tanks confirmed so far according to French media.
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Just re-read ↑ and I should have written "promises to transfer 321".
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I wouldn't propose abandoning UKR as appeasement could lead to worse. Maintaining a stalemate doesn't look like a solution either. So, tanks it is.
But there's no question that or is an escalation, and also a shift towards attack from defensive support.
There's no clear route to safety that wouldn't embolden the Kremlin and the Doomsday clock has ticked a bit nearer to midnight.
Has it ever been more important to proceed with caution while waving the biggest possible stick? And hoping Russia behaves rationally.
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I would say some attacking is quite excusable in the scheme of things. I expect that they are not allowed to attack into Russian territory so it will be against land forces (maybe legitimate targets inside Russia e.g. military airports or munitions depots.
Russia has completely decimated swathes of the Ukraine, killing civilians and children and generally committing war crimes each day, so far with little resistance and with some hand wringing but very little action from the rest of the world, except some sanctions which don't appear to have had much real effect.
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I don't think there's much in the Russian bluster about escalation, some countries have mentioned it but its simply a form of self deterrence.
Helping Ukraine at all was an escalation, sending HIMARS was an escalation, Ukraine attacking inside Russian territory was an escalation. So was attacking the kerch bridge. Tanks have been sent since the beginning, and now sending western European is the next one...
If there's anyone we should listen to about escalation it's Ukrainians, see what they think about that word.
The Americans have made it perfectly clear what will happen if they start lobbing nukes about.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Sun 29 Jan 23 at 16:59
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>>I don't think there's much in the Russian bluster about escalation
They'd say it all anyway, so of course it can't be taken literally. Same with "Destroy Russia and we will destroy the planet, a planet without Russia is no use" thing. Truth is not even a consideration with Russian statements, it will say whatever it thinks is most likely to get the desired reaction.
But in the end, it could come down to one nutter. There's no doubting the risk when the war effort is increasing.
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I get the impression that the recent threats and rhetoric about bombing Berlin, lobbing nukes, 'escalation' and 'provocation' aren't exactly coordinated. They're coming from folks like Medvedev, Kadyrov, Prigozhin and other unofficial talking heads.
I think the jockeying for position has already started.
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Appeasement or simply sacrificing Ukraine is not an option. It would allow Putin to retain power - other border states could become a target. That most (not all) are members of NATO would not necessarily dissuade him.
The best strategy is to do that which destabilises Putin. Any successor will be aware of the huge cost of the "special operation" to Russia, and the implausibility of victory. A settlement with a new man at the top is more likely than with Putin whose reputation hangs on success in Ukraine.
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That's a fair observation, although contenders who haven't enthusiastically committed to the same objectives might be hard to find in Russia.
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www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p0dlz7tz/putin-vs-the-west-series-1-1-my-backyard
A 3 part docudrama interviewing the leaders who engaged with Putin when all this kicked off in 2014.
Will be shown on BBC this evening
Last edited by: Zero on Mon 30 Jan 23 at 08:46
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twitter.com/BBCBreakfast/status/1625764388685709314
Ben Wallace being blunt in an interview about the UKs support for ukraine affecting our readiness.
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Godamn, Putin must be smashing up the crockery in the Kremlin this morning. 12 months since the "special military operation" stated and frail ole Biden just waltzes into Kiev like he is on a sightseeing tour of Europe.
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>>Biden’s vacation…
Joint Rivet and tankers over Poland this morning. Suspect F35s with tracking off are doing CAP missions until he leaves.
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Last week some very low flying stuff at night over the Dales.
Not been any of that for quite some time...could be related.
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An A-50U, a $300M Russian mock-up of the E-3 Sentry, has been clobbered at an airfield in Belarus. Unconfirmed reports are that is was hit by explosives dropped from two drones.
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This is General Oleksandr Matovnikov, commander of Russian troops in Belarus and supposedly responsible for security.
Wonder how long he'll last?
1plus1.video/unian-novosti/2023-rik/lyutij-2023-v-merezhu-zlili-intimne-video-rosijskogo-generala
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>>
>> Wonder how long he'll last?
>>
He should be ok as long as he keeps away from windows at the top of long stairways!
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>> An A-50U, a $300M Russian mock-up of the E-3 Sentry, has been clobbered at an
>> airfield in Belarus. Unconfirmed reports are that is was hit by explosives dropped from two
>> drones.
>>
The A-50 appears to have been undamaged. We'll see.
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Belarusian media have released what purports to be a video of the A50 moving under it's own steam although whether it can fly or not is another question. If it's genuine footage it doesn't appear badly damaged.
1plus1.video/unian-novosti/2023-rik/berezen-2023-biloruski-zmi-pokazali-a-50u-na-aerodromi-machulishti-nibito-pislya-ataki
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Looks like they could have done with the ones that mortars, mind you they were probably on foot.
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>> www.nytimes.com/2023/02/28/world/europe/ukraine-tanks.html?smid=tw-share
>> handing tanks over is a tricky business.
Unable to read that without creating an account.
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Worked fine for me. I saw it on twitter.
It was saying lots of countries are struggling to meet their previous big promises of tanks. Lots of the tanks need work, not enough places/people to get them repaired. Want peace, prepare for war.
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>> Unable to read that without creating an account.
Ditto.
Try this one instead.
www.nytimes.com/2023/02/28/world/europe/ukraine-tanks.html
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Same. (Same URL so not surprising!!)
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>> Same. (Same URL so not surprising!!)
Weird, as once I got rid of the twitter share bit (?smid=tw-share), it was fine.
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twitter.com/RealCynicalFox/status/1631987462452006913?t=a4z-I1JkvrqFOHNrr4-VbA&s=08
A link to an FT article, Ukraine are asking the EU for 250k shells month which is many times what can be provided. Might be a case of who runs out of artillery first loses.
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No word yet of what was going off this afternoon but two B52s (NOBLE11 & 12) were loitering over Poland for a few hours with a P8 flying up and down the Baltic.
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www.france24.com/en/europe/20230303-germany-s-scholz-announced-tectonic-policy-shifts-but-a-year-on-not-much-has-budged
French view on Germany's leadership on the war. They still seem to have feet of clay compare that to Poland's shopping list, I think they've ordered 2000 tanks SPGs and IFVs. That's a significant number, anyone would think they don't fancy being invaded by Russia.
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Heard on the news that Ukrainian operatives have been implicated in the blowing up of the gas pipeline.... don't know enough about it but I guess they are saying it was to force the hand of certain European countries to supply arms.
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>> Heard on the news that Ukrainian operatives have been implicated in the blowing up of
>> the gas pipeline....
Implicated? This appears to be the source.
www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/us/politics/nord-stream-pipeline-sabotage-ukraine.html
reading it, it appears to be nothing more than a wild guess.
Last edited by: Zero on Wed 8 Mar 23 at 22:04
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>reading it, it appears to be nothing more than a wild guess.
NYT clickbait. It get's more like the National Enquirer every day.
On another note - currently there are two B52s tootling around over Bulgaria - probably an implicit threat after Russia's use of hypersonic missiles against Ukraine overnight.
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The Russians are again using thermite rain bombs.
Thermite bombs have been used on a number of occasions during the war.
The lethal devices - which are made of metal powder mixed with metal oxide - are so deadly because they burn rather than explode.
The components burn at a temperature exceeding 2,400C, hot enough to sear through steel, and to burn human flesh to the marrow.
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Watch a YouTube of Network Rail using Thermite pots to weld rail. That's how hot it is !
Ted
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Watch a bucket of thermite on top of an ice block.
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youtu.be/w6cMmk8LZgQ
Mythbusters did it so you don't have to.
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Well that's one way to reduce Russia's FJ fleet.
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>> Well that's one way to reduce Russia's FJ fleet.
The SU-27 survived.
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So Putin now has a war crimes arrest warrant out for him, issued by the International Criminal Court. You know the delicious irony of that? He can travel to the USA and be safe, because they don't recognise the ICC.
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notes.citeam.org/t-54?s=1
An article on Russian equipment now being brought out of storage. Tanks from the 1950s are being sent to the front line.
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"We find it difficult to determine the possible uses of these tanks, but in any case..."
They've been using tanks as short range artillery.
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A WC-135R atmospheric sampler dropping down over Liverpool today. Must be something toxic in the air around Cheshire.
In other news:
Reports circulating that the US has finally had enough of Orban's money grubbing and obstructive behaviour over Ukraine. They're close to imposing sanctions on him and his cronies.
And Israel is concerned over intel that Iran is in discussions with Moscow and Beijing over the supply of large quantities of Ammonium Perchlorate (the oxidiser used in solid fuel rocket motors). Enough to build significant quantities of long range missiles.
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>> A WC-135R atmospheric sampler dropping down over Liverpool today. Must be something toxic in the
>> air around Cheshire.
>>
...if the prevailing wind were easterly, I'd reckon it was keeping Biden safe. (But it isn't, so possibly seeking the Cheshire cannabis farms ;-) ).
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>> >> Must be something toxic in
>> the
>> >> air around Cheshire.
This is news?
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>> twitter.com/RALee85/status/1646298946552352768
>>
>> Nearly a bit of a do...
>>
It’s crap like this that leads to escalation.
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>> Russians carry on stooging around UK interests in the North Sea.
Been happening for years, The Americans had a tap on the Soviet comms cable to Sakhalin. They dropped submarines down on it several times to upgrade the capabilities.
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youtu.be/DxIeXdn86Lg
Short video from ch4 news about an arms dealer in Northamptonshire selling to Ukraine.
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A post from a Russian Telegram channel.
Yesterday (May 1st), a man ran into a Moscow copshop claiming he'd just seen a Ukranian saboteur pigeon. He said that the bird was painted in the colours of the Ukranian flag and was carrying in it's claws an anti-personnel petal mine which it dropped on Dmitry Ulyanov Street.
The cops immediately despatched a team to search the area but could not find the mine and reported that all the pigeons they observed were grey.
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www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65558070
UK delivers air launched cruise missiles. Gives the Ukr something they've been after for a while. Puts in range much more of russian held land.
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Good. A pat on the back for the techies who got it working.
And the US Ambassador to South Africa has gone public about US concerns that South Africa has supplied arms and ammunition to Russia.
In Dec '22 a Russian registered ship called the Lady R docked in Simonstown Naval Base and stayed for three days.
"We are sure that weapons and ammunition were loaded onto this ship in Simonstown when it was returning to Russia"
You don't even need satellite images to see what's going off in Simonstown, you can look down into the base from the coast road above it. I saw what I'm pretty sure was a Type 42 docked in Simonstown in Sept '78 when South Africa was subject to sanctions.
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I'm guessing this is a Good Thing, unless you are part of the occupying Russian forces?
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Yes it means they are able to fire from their own aircraft and successfully so.
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Good. Let's hope all this new weaponry is a game changer.
Last edited by: smokie on Mon 15 May 23 at 17:02
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If Trump gets re-elected, he will send Stormy Daniels.
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>> If Trump gets re-elected, he will send Stormy Daniels.
Is Putin into 'rain games' too?
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twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1658368346612547584?cxt=HHwWgIC-6bHO2oMuAAAA
The french are sending their version now.
What was off the table 6 months ago is now not. F16s won't be far behind.
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The US took two Ukranian pilots to Tucson at the end of April where they spent two weeks being tested on a F-16 simulator to see how long it would take them to convert from MiG-29 and Su-27. The Tucson instructors came to the conclusion it would take 4 months.
The only difficulty they had was deciphering all the cockpit info which is in English.
Just need to sort out the maintenance issues now.
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>> Just need to sort out the maintenance issues now.
>>
Already in hand i believe.
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>>
>> >> Just need to sort out the maintenance issues now.
>> >>
>>
>> Already in hand i believe.
>>
Won't they just fly them to a country that can maintain them. Our F35s were supposed to go to Turkey for maintenance.
I guess the Netherlands or Belgium could be candidates as they fly F16s.
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This risks being seen as direct operational support rather than the simple provision of hardware.
The capability of an F16 may exceed by a very wide margin that of an M16 assault rifle, but both are simple provision of hardware preceded by some training. For F16 this may take 4 months, the M16 4 minutes - safety off, pull the trigger.
It all seems part of a game to message Putin that the West are resolute in their support of Ukraine, it is a war he cannot win, but avoids single major escalation which may provoke a wider Russian response.
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They may for some scheduled maintenance but for day to day it'll have to be in country.
There's about half a dozen countries in Europe that operate the F16.
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twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1660962245168209921
Russia in a spot of bother, this time inside their own country.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Tue 23 May 23 at 21:05
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What concerns me about this was is that Russia doesn't seem to be deploying their best tech on the battlefield - are they keeping any back whilst we deplete our stocks.
Some acknowledged crude assumptions, looking at the monthly MI from a reasonable selection of defence subcontractors (aerospace, electronics, etc.) on our books suggest there is no increase in spending on replacements.
Are they playing some long game or are our stocks so vast that it doesn't matter?
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Russia has a smaller economy than the UK.
They can't afford to play against "the West".
I doubt they have a lot of "best tech" to play with.
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>> What concerns me about this was is that Russia doesn't seem to be deploying their
>> best tech on the battlefield
What best tech were you thinking of?
>> Some acknowledged crude assumptions, looking at the monthly MI from a reasonable selection of defence
>> subcontractors (aerospace, electronics, etc.) on our books suggest there is no increase in spending on
>> replacements.
The gov have ordered some replacements but not many.
>> Are they playing some long game or are our stocks so vast that it doesn't
>> matter?
>>
Our stocks aren't vast.
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NATO and the west need to reinforce Ukraine with whatever is necessary. A Russian victory this year would be a defeat not just for Ukraine but the western alliance.
The only real hope the Russians now have is a drawn out conflict in the hope that western resolve somehow evaporates - possibly following a change in US policy and presidency.
Blowing up the dam was a way of disrupting a Ukraine offensive and causing more pain. Putting in more sophisticated assets (if they have them) or escalating the conflict in the short term is unlikely to be successful.
A question - if it looked as if Ukraine was in immediate danger of being overrun, would NATO deploy both equipment and manpower in theatre.
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>> What concerns me about this was is that Russia doesn't seem to be deploying their
>> best tech on the battlefield - are they keeping any back whilst we deplete our
>> stocks.
They dont have "best tech". Russian war plans have always assumed tactical nukes on the battlefield to blast a way through Nato front lines. Their troops are poorly equipped, poorly trained, and met an equally poorly equipped and poorly trained force, but one that had a cause
The Russians are learning tho, but without the ability to deploy the nukes, have turned defensive.
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I suspect they can and will use nuclear weapons before this conflict is over.
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>> I suspect they can and will use nuclear weapons before this conflict is over.
>>
We'll all be in trouble if they do.
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Almost irrelevant to how we proceed.
Appeasement has never worked in history.
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>> I suspect they can and will use nuclear weapons before this conflict is over.
>>
The US has already made it clear publicly and privately what will happen if they do. As have the Chinese on the quiet.
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>> >> I suspect they can and will use nuclear weapons before this conflict is over.
>> >>
>>
>> The US has already made it clear publicly and privately what will happen if they
>> do. As have the Chinese on the quiet.
>>
When they were younger, I told my children that there would be consequences if they continued to misbehave.
On occasion they persisted to I had to carry out the consequences (grounding, no pocket money, no Xbox, cancelled day out etc.)
Point is, sometimes, people can be stupid and ignore consequences.
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Putin may be an irrational actor, not sure he's suicidal though. But he may be as you suggest, in which case he thinks he's got problems now...
Last edited by: sooty123 on Sat 10 Jun 23 at 22:09
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If you are imminernt danger of losing a war, the result of which loss will be your downfall and likely death I would sugest that winning that war by whatever means available might seem to be be totally rational to you.
Not using them would become the suicidal course as far as Putin was concerned
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And that would likely be the point someone who didn't want their family annihilated decided to relieve Putin of his duties.
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>> And that would likely be the point someone who didn't want their family annihilated decided
>> to relieve Putin of his duties.
>>
The successor regime to that of Putin is likely to be more militarily extreme not less. The idea of a humiliating defeat or climb down is not acceptable to the Russian army or people. If that requires the use of tactical nuclear weapons they will use them.
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, the result of which loss will
>> be your downfall and likely death
If he uses nukes more than likely yes.
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I doubt Putin has a "fire now" button on his smartphone - there must be some sort of command chain which would lead to the launch of nuclear warheads.
Naively assuming this is the case, even if Putin wanted to do the unthinkable, could he actually make it happen or would sounder minds intervene.
A swift resolution to the conflict is more likely to lead to extreme reactions from Russia. If the conflict drags on as a conventional conflict until at least next year it is more likely that meaningful negotiations could emerge or Putin deposed.
For a settlement Russia would need something they could paint as a victory (or at least non-defeat). Ukraine who are reliant on western support would have little option but to concede the settlement (possibly having secured NATO and EU membership for Ukraine) if the west insisted.
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Ukraine - Volume 7 - sooty123
