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Continuing Discussion.
Last edited by: VxFan on Fri 15 Jul 22 at 11:22
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Apparently a statement is being prepared in No10, widely rumoured to be his resignation.
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Braverman was on the wireless a few minutes ago. She is telling Johnson to go but not resigning "in the national interest", and also declaring her leadership bid. What a nasty piece of work. But it does slam another door on Johnson if the lawyers now have a reason to uphold the law.
Not that long ago Braverman as attorney general and Buckland as lord chancellor told Johnson they were OK with him breaking the EU withdrawal agreement. Control the forces of law and order and you can break the law and bypass constitutional protections. Very Trump, but that door is now closed unless he can replace her, which seems unlikely.
He can't not go today, surely. How likely is it that anyone will accept an appointment to replace the missing ministers.
STOP PRESS - he's just agreed to go.
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So all those who resigned from cabinet, do you just plug them back in till the leadership election?
You might have to he was running out of candidates.
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Perhaps Johnson could reappoint them now - it can't make any sense to have 50 new ministers in one foul swoop, all to be replaced/shuffled by a new leader in 3 months' time.
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Foul perhaps for Tory ministers but it’s fell.
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>> Foul perhaps for Tory ministers but it’s fell.
Foul was intended.
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It got me to look up the origin anyway which is quite interesting.
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R4 was well on it. Well done Guto Harri a masterstroke of PR ! Good riddance.
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...frankly, if they allow him to stay in post in the interim, I see further damage coming, better to let some "safe pair of hands" (have they got one?) hold the reins.
If he was going to go the full Trump, he might just barricade himself in.
Got to get VFM from that wallpaper, though.
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Utterly wrong that he might stay on even temporarily.
Had he been stepping down with honour, fine. Stepping down for the latest deceit that broke the camel's back, he should go now.
Typical Johnson. And typical of the creeps who've done the deal with him, which appears to be the case.
Perhaps they are still wrangling over that one.
Last edited by: Manatee on Thu 7 Jul 22 at 09:49
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And where has Raab been for the last 24 hours, hiding in a fridge? Is his title of Deputy PM purely ceremonial?
It's not as if he has any chance of the leadership, so he might as well do his job and be the placeholder.
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>> It's not as if he has any chance of the leadership,
He thinks otherwise, hence him being quiet. See also truss, wallace etc.
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He needs to go now and bring in a caretaker, but it's such a mess there's now 59 empty posts.
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Can you imagine how much damage he could do between now and October knowing that he won’t need to face the consequences? Peerages will be handed out. Contracts to his pals. Line his own pockets.
Yes I know that is what he has done already but I think he could go full Trump.
And still have access to the buttons and codes.
He needs to go now. Is that not why we have a deputy PM?
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Tarzan is on Sky News.
I'd forgotten that the membership will vote on the last 2 candidates standing. Heseltine rightly observes that they are only a small part of the Tory vote and could well go for the more extreme/populist of the 2, and we could end up with another dud.
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>> go for the more extreme/populist of the 2, and we could end up with another
>> dud.
Its a given, all they have in the storeroom is duds. Its a matter of degree.
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>> Tarzan is on Sky News.
>>
>> I'd forgotten that the membership will vote on the last 2 candidates standing. Heseltine rightly
>> observes that they are only a small part of the Tory vote and could well
>> go for the more extreme/populist of the 2, and we could end up with another
>> dud.
In a weird piece of coincidental planning there was a programme on the box last night about the fall of Thatcher. Hezza was on there; a voice of sanity.
Bernard Ingham also featured. I thought he was dead but apparently still very with it at 90.
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>> Can you imagine how much damage he could do between now and October knowing that
>> he won’t need to face the consequences?
Its not a problem, he is now utterly powerless - Everything from this point on is by committee.
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He should be stripped of any power immediately - to do otherwise would be like leaving a loaded weapon in the hands of the gunman who used the 4th July parade for target practice.
I have no time for Raab - but I assume the normal protocol would be for him to take over - as he did when Boris got Covid. If he wants to stand in the leadership contest it is his chance to show what a fine fellow he is.
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Lets not get carried away into the realms of fantasy. This is not the USA, Bunter does not have executive powers remotely near the scope of a president.
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>>
>> Bunter does not have executive powers remotely near the scope of a president.
>>
...he doesn't; but he thinks he does. To date he has got away with much that he shouldn't have, and no-one (notably the tory party) has reined him in.
I note that there are not a few senior members of his own party who are concerned what he might do in any interim period.
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>> Its not a problem, he is now utterly powerless - Everything from this point on
>> is by committee.
He's like Japanese knotweed. We know he's capable of ignoring the law and convention. In no wise should be be left with any power, nominal or otherwise.
Perhaps he can be persuaded with his own words. Gordon Brown is worth 10 Boris Johnsons.
He wrote in the Telegraph: "The whole thing is unbelievable. As I write these words, Gordon Brown is still holed up in Downing Street. He is like some illegal settler in the Sinai desert, lashing himself to the radiator, or like David Brent haunting The Office in that excruciating episode when he refuses to acknowledge that he has been sacked.
"Isn't there someone – the Queen's Private Secretary, the nice policeman on the door of No 10 – whose job it is to tell him that the game is up?"
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Apparently he's putting a cabinet together and wants to stay until October!
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>> And where has Raab been for the last 24 hours, hiding in a fridge? Is
>> his title of Deputy PM purely ceremonial?
>>
>> It's not as if he has any chance of the leadership, so he might as
>> well do his job and be the placeholder.
>>
....Boris is just replacing him in his pre-resignation reshuffle with Michael Fabricant.
Well, you might as well troll everyone while you still can..... ;-)
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>> ....Boris is just replacing him in his pre-resignation reshuffle with Michael Fabricant.
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>> Well, you might as well troll everyone while you still can..... ;-)
Great name, I'm sure he can fabricant a few half truths.
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>> Great name, I'm sure he can fabricant a few half truths.
Well, he did admit his hair has been "enhanced", so you could be right.
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Has anybody seen his hair and Boris's in the same photo?
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Jonathan Pie's latest 'news report'
Contains swearies but factually accurate.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=lKrLBPmRsrM
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Surpassed even so by Alastair Campbell who doesn't hold back.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ANNi4qxQgB0
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>> Surpassed even so by Alastair Campbell who doesn't hold back.
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>> www.youtube.com/watch?v=ANNi4qxQgB0
What a cracker of an interview.
As AC says, what possessed Zahawi, one of the more sensible (or at least less ludicrous) members of Johnson's government, to drag Campbell into the discussion?
Is it that his podcast with Rory Stewart has got under Tory skins?
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>> Is it that his podcast with Rory Stewart has got under Tory skins?
Excellent podcast - called The Rest is Politics if anyone else is interested.
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Yip regular listened to it.
Lots of interesting info around how things actually operate in Downing St and Parliament in general.
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Yes Campbell was on top form and he was a good interviewee. I used to dislike him when he was a Labour spin doctor (ironically now criticising BJ who often uses the spin doctor playbook). Now free to speak his mind Campbell is worth a listen. In comparison Burley showed herself as lightweight and it was good to see her being challenged.
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Once Boris leaves No.10 they will change the locks so he can't get back in.
He doesn't really understand or accept what he has done wrong. He believes that over the next 8-12 weeks the Tory Party will come and say "sorry Boris, we really like you and want you to stay".
He should go now! Deputy Raab should hold the fort in the interim - I have no time for him but he may not be quite as delusional and narcissistic as his boss.
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>> Once Boris leaves No.10 they will change the locks so he can't get back in.
>>
>> He doesn't really understand or accept what he has done wrong.
It's not just Johnson. That his latest cabinet can countenance him 'working his notice' is incredible. Staying around until one's successor is what happens when one is leaving with honour intact.
Johnson on the other hand is going following gross misconduct. He should be clearing his personal effects into a bin bag with security standing over him while he does it, and vacating his accommodation, including Chequers, as soon as practicable. We know that none of that will happen but he must no be PM for a minute longer.
He has trashed the UK's reputation, not least with his stated intention to rip up the NI protocol, and other national leaders must find it incomprehensible that he is still there - particularly as we actually have a Deputy Prime Minister, should he ever surface.
Re his successor - I honestly think that his supporters, the ones who have enthusiastically propped him up before deciding a few days ago that they should pretend to have some integrity, should be ineligible or at least not seriously considered. Of the presumed runners, that probably only leaves Tugendhat, Hunt and maybe Mordaunt.
I don't think 'charisma' is very relevant. I didn't think Johnson had genuine charisma anyway, the real thing isn't a facade and we know that Johnson's is at least partly an act. The country needs someone who looks and is serious, and trustworthy.
Apparently the membership is not much more than 100,000 nearly all of whom are old and white - arguably not representative of potential Conservative voters. That could produce a surprise.
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>> >> Once Boris leaves No.10 they will change the locks so he can't get back
>> in.
>> >>
>> >> He doesn't really understand or accept what he has done wrong.
>>
>> It's not just Johnson. That his latest cabinet can countenance him 'working his notice' is
>> incredible. Staying around until one's successor is what happens when one is leaving with honour
>> intact.
Calm down, calm down. The tories are in power till the next mandatory election thanks to the 80 seat majority. Bojo is powerless, the current cabinet have told him so, he cant do anything on his own, so in a way they are being responsible by keeping him in check. Keeping him caged is in its own way is a: humiliating for him b: better than having him spouting his mouth off from the back benches and stops him interfering in the new leadership election using his acolytes.*
Its a sound workable scenario till the next leader.
Talking of acolytes, JRM was very quiet during all this hoo ha. Hopefully that smirching sneering common room snitch is going to get his come uppance going forwards.
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>>Calm down, calm down.
They might think they have him fenced in, although I draw your attention to the fact that he has just appointed his own guards, carefully chosen from the only ones left at the bottom of the barrel.
Most of them will be temporary and all of them will keep their ministerial pensions when they go back to obscurity in October. It's ridiculous that he should have appointed another cabinet.
He clearly still thinks he will wriggle out of this. That won't happen, but Cummings has warned (with extreme prejudice of course) that Johnson will cause carnage between now and October if he stays as PM. Remember, rules don't apply to Johnson.
James Cleverly (no comment) was blithely saying this morning that staying on until a new PM is appointed is in line with convention. Not when you're sacked for lying, and have trashed the country's reputation, it isn't.
Somebody will put a no-confidence motion quite soon I imagine.
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>> Somebody will put a no-confidence motion quite soon I imagine.
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Messrs Starmer and Rayner still in the frame for that. (Can't work this pronoun stuff out ;-) )
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>> Messrs Starmer and Rayner still in the frame for that. (Can't work this pronoun stuff
>> out ;-) )
They can be framed as much as they like. There is still a large tory majority in the house, and when it comes to outside attacks, the party will vote to tell them to FRO. Wont need whipping either.
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>> They can be framed as much as they like. There is still a large tory
>> majority in the house, and when it comes to outside attacks, the party will vote
>> to tell them to FRO. Wont need whipping either.
I f we had politicians who could work across the aisle then there could be a way through.
No confidence vote passed so Johnson's out on his a***. However another credible leader, maybe Raab or, if they can find one, an elder statesperson with no further ambition (May?) is in the frame as a caretaker.
The Monarch, applying the Lascelles principles*, does not allow an election as there appears to be a leader capable of forming a government.
* en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lascelles_Principles
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Fri 8 Jul 22 at 13:18
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>> >>Calm down, calm down.
>>
>> They might think they have him fenced in, although I draw your attention to the
>> fact that he has just appointed his own guards, carefully chosen from the only ones
>> left at the bottom of the barrel.
None of them care one jot about him, specially the bottom feeders - he can offer them nothing going forwards. At this point its everyone for themselves, self publicity and hanging on to the next coat tails. (or even visions of being a future coat)
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>> >>Calm down, calm down.
>>
>> They might think they have him fenced in, although I draw your attention to the
>> fact that he has just appointed his own guards,
I'm not quite sure they are all best mates though. He's picked a couple he's fallen out with or are on opposite sides of the party to, mercer and clarke for example. They aren't in the mold of patel and jrm.
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>> The country needs someone who looks and is serious, and trustworthy.
Good luck with that. No one has managed to fill that role in a very long time, if ever.
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Not Gove. From the Mail
According to Gove's ex-wife Sarah Vine, he delivered a sharp one-liner to Johnson when informed of his impending sacking.
In her Daily Mail column, she relates the phone call she had with Gove shortly afterwards, and quoting him directly, she writes: "'The prime minister rang me a few minutes ago and told me it was time for me to step back. I said, respectfully, prime minister, if anyone should be stepping back, it is you."'
And what does one do when one is fired by their boss?
"Have a glass of wine and a slice of salami and see what tomorrow brings," Gove is quoted as responding.
I like it.
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>> Good luck with that. No one has managed to fill that role in a very
>> long time, if ever.
Brown and Major?
Blair before he blotted his copybook with Iraq and Honours?
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Ah yes, trustworthy Major.
The one who had an affair with Edwina Currie while both were married to other people.
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>> Ah yes, trustworthy Major.
>>
>> The one who had an affair with Edwina Currie while both were married to other
>> people.
What's that to do with price of fish?
We've no idea what was going on in either of their marriages.
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>> What's that to do with price of fish?
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>> We've no idea what was going on in either of their marriages.
It's a trust thing.
If the marriage is unhappy / sexless and they are staying together to present a public image then that is lying to the public.
If one partner is happy and the other is not and plays around, then that's not being honest to the other partner / cheating.
It says a lot about the persons character.
Last edited by: VxFan on Fri 8 Jul 22 at 14:10
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>> It's a trust thing.
>>
>> If the marriage is unhappy / sexless and they are staying together to present a
>> public image then that is lying to the public.
>>
>> If one partner is happy and the other is not and plays around, then that's
>> not being honest to the other partner / cheating.
>>
>> It says a lot about the persons character.
Humans make mistakes. Of course we all see these things through our own lens. We know he's ashamed of that because he said so.
I hadn't really considered Johnson's record in this area, his record in journalism and politics is enough. Haven't all his previous relationships ended after he impregnated another woman?
It's surprising how many great men (probably more than women but I don't know) have chaotic personal lives. Perhaps that's what VxFan meant.
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>> It's a trust thing.
>>
>> If the marriage is unhappy / sexless and they are staying together to present a
>> public image then that is lying to the public.
>>
>> If one partner is happy and the other is not and plays around, then that's
>> not being honest to the other partner / cheating.
>>
>> It says a lot about the persons character.
Get real zipster. Life as we know it would stop if you applied those principles everywhere
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>> Get real zipster. Life as we know it would stop if you applied those principles
>> everywhere
>>
Their are a pair of identical twins and both want to propose to your daughter.
Both are equally good looking, exciting, well educated and have equivalent careers and wealth.
One is known to be a philandering cheat. The other one is not a cheat.
Honestly, which proposal would you want your daughter to accept!?
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>> Their are a pair of identical twins and both want to propose to your daughter.
>>
>> Both are equally good looking, exciting, well educated and have equivalent careers and wealth.
>>
>> One is known to be a philandering cheat. The other one is not a cheat.
>>
>> Honestly, which proposal would you want your daughter to accept!?
Johnson is undoubtedly a philandering cheat; sorry both a philanderer AND a cheat.
Yet the Tory party allowed him to get his hands all over 'her'.
Major/Curry was two colleagues who got too close. We've all seen it happen. Some of us have got near to that point, or at least thought we might have.
Parliament with its hours, pressures, travel and access to drink etc would facilitate liaisons in a way ordinary jobs do not.
The only person who knew about Major and Curry was their Minister, Tony Newton.
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>> Honestly, which proposal would you want your daughter to accept!?
You have a daughter, you know to express any preference or to interfere would be fatal to your relationship
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>> It's a trust thing.
Exactly.
The clue was me calling him "trustworthy Major"
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>>Good luck with that. No one has managed to fill that role in a very long time, if ever.
Theresa May? I didn't agree with her when she was at the Home Office, and her premiership foundered on the rocks of Brexit extremism, but she was head and shoulders better than Johnson in the seriousness and trust departments. A professional politician, not a celebrity.
In recent history, Blair was in a class of his own. His grasp and understanding of detail were in general as astonishing as Johnson's is almost completely absent. Major was a bit unlucky but he's a far better man than Johnson. And nobody could say Thatcher wasn't serious - and you could certainly trust her to do what she set out to do. She also surrounded herself with the best people - something Johnson seems to have a problem with.
There was a recent interview with Blair on "The Rest is Politics" podcast. If you can bear to listen to it, the contrast with Johnson is stark.
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>> >> The country needs someone who looks and is serious, and trustworthy.
>>
>> Good luck with that. No one has managed to fill that role in a very
>> long time, if ever.
>>
Whilst Theresa May certainly had her faults not many would have questioned either her seriousness or her trustworthiness.
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>> >> >> The country needs someone who looks and is serious, and trustworthy.
>> >>
>> >> Good luck with that. No one has managed to fill that role in a
>> very
>> >> long time, if ever.
>> >>
>> Whilst Theresa May certainly had her faults not many would have questioned either her seriousness
>> or her trustworthiness.
>>
Voters want charisma in their leaders, the ability to rally others to the cause, to strike fear unto the enemy, trampling scapegoats and anyone else who gets in your way underfoot, to march steadfastly in to the Sudetenland or at least £350m a week paid from them.
Oh-dear, perhaps too much charisma isn't such a good thing after-all.
On the news today, a mature lady, said Boris was such a hard worker! I couldn't stop myself from laughing for a couple of minutes.
Last edited by: zippy on Fri 8 Jul 22 at 13:45
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"Voters want charisma in their leaders..."
Maybe I'm misreading this, but is it being suggested that Johnson has/had charisma?
His tousle-haired, shambling appearance and gabbling diction made him appear a buffoon that you couldn't possibly take seriously. And apparently it was all deliberately cultivated - make of that what you will.
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>> Maybe I'm misreading this, but is it being suggested that Johnson has/had charisma?
>>
>> His tousle-haired, shambling appearance and gabbling diction made him appear a buffoon that you couldn't
>> possibly take seriously. And apparently it was all deliberately cultivated - make of that what
>> you will.
Judging by the vox pops now, previously, and as far back as the Referendum that persona, whether you call it charisma or not, appeals to a significant cohort of the electorate. Some see him as a man of the people and far less 'posh' than Grammer School/Redbrick Starmer.
Never underestimate the tastes of the public...
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>> Grammer School/Redbrick Starmer.
....Duncan......Duncan!!.....
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>> >> Grammer School/Redbrick Starmer.
>>
>>
>> ....Duncan......Duncan!!.....
No. It's too late. You had your chance. I have retired/ left/been sacked. Sort it out yourselves. Any road, the money was rubbish.
Grammer school indeed! Not to mention zippy, who is worried about his daughter marrying a cad, when he doesn't even know the difference between their and there. that's far more important.
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I do, I just didn’t proof reed wit my ePhone autocorrected.
:-)
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I wouldn't call it charisma except very loosely - when I think of the best boss I ever had, he had it. Absolutely straight guy, super-capable but genuinely modest and very open. The only time I ever felt loyalty, rather than duty, was owed.
Johnson's kind is more like the gift of the gab and an amiable demeanor (I won't say facade, although people who know him have done).
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To some he was a buffoon, to others he was very affable. Whether he was posh or it was an act was neither nor there.
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>> To some he was a buffoon, to others he was very affable. Whether he was
>> posh or it was an act was neither nor there.
So long as you can fake sincerity you've got it made...
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Tom Tugendhat has decided to throw his hat into the ring.
He will now be known as Tom Tugend.
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I think they will, as rumoured, increase the number of backers req'd to get on the ballot. Stops the time wasters/no hopers.
I think he's in that list, of course there's others like Sir Bill someone or other, Steven Baker, the AG that are all have no chance.
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I've been away for a few days so don't have the detail but they really could do with the process being streamlined a bit compared to what my recollection how it happened the last time.
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May resigned 24th May 2019. Boris assumed office 23rd July 2019. 60 days.
Corbyn resigned 12th December 2019. Starmer assumed office 4th April 2020. 113 days.
I assume the 1922 committee will want to have the field of hopefuls reduced to a choice of two to put to party members by 27th July - summer recess.
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Apparently, although Sunak entered the contest late (yesterday evening) with a rather cringeworthy video in support, he is now ranked joint favourite by Ladbroke's, alongside Ben Wallace (who?).
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Sunak has no chance at the general election ballot box. The revelation of his wifes non dom tax status, and his "taxes must go up" stance will do him in. The leader has to be electable
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>> Sunak has no chance at the general election ballot box. The revelation of his wifes
>> non dom tax status, and his "taxes must go up" stance will do him in.
>> The leader has to be electable
>>
I don't think he'll get that far, I doubt he'd win any run off vote. Not now anyway.
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The non-dom thing really is, IMO, non-event. She was entitled to do what she did and there are loads of people who will always take advantage of tax loopholes - I know they aren't all the Chancellors wife though! I'm sure many here would if they could ( I know I did when contracting)
But nevertheless she has decided to forgo an entitlement to do what is seen by the Mail etc to be the right thing. Unlike its proprietor, Lord Rothermere, who at 149 in the 20220 Times Rich List has a family wealth of £1.2bn and holds non-dom status but seems to always be overlooked when they are pointing the finger at someone.
Last edited by: smokie on Sat 9 Jul 22 at 10:39
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>> The non-dom thing really is, IMO, non-event.
It is for plenty, an issue. Non dom=tax dodger to many.
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>> It is for plenty, an issue. Non dom=tax dodger to many.
It's easily confused/conflated with non resident though in fact they're very different things. Labour and the media will make hay.
Sunak's protestations of being a UK patriot are also undermined by his retaining a US Green Card until after he was in office.
IIRC Javid has a period as a non dom in his past too.
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Sat 9 Jul 22 at 10:55
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IIRC Javid has a period as a non dom in his past too.
>>
>>
>>
I think Zahawi has similar tax/business skeletons in the closet.
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He's the defence secretary, from what i gather very popular with Conservative members.
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Those with a military background will be stiff opposition for any other contenders with a claim to proven leadership qualities, straight talking, toughness etc.
Non-dom status is media spin - his wife was wholly entitled and is/was one of ~75000 in the UK. His electorate are initially Tory MPs, and if he progresses, Tory party members. The opinions of the media and the rest of us are relatively inconsequential.
IMHO he had a "good pandemic" with some innovative solutions and judgement in helping those most in need of financial support. Further analysis may have limited the gaps and errors but there was always a balance to be struck between speed, complexity, and process.
If he can distance himself sufficiently from Boris he will be in with a real chance - far too early to call!
Last edited by: Terry on Sat 9 Jul 22 at 11:11
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Sunak is attempting to pitch himself as the ordinary bloke who rose from humble beginnings - an example of how the best of immigrant families can make it in the UK by sheer hard work, to judge from his "inspirational" video, if you can take it seriously. ("Let me tell you a story...")
I'm not sure how convincing that is.
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I see he's decided not to stand for PM.
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Probably wants his freedom…
Yeah, ok, sorry, a bit…
;-)
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>> Those with a military background will be stiff opposition for any other contenders with a
>> claim to proven leadership qualities, straight talking, toughness etc.
I think that's right especially now - they will be perceived to have, and might actually have, stronger notions of honour and loyalty. I think Rory Stewart would have done better this time as well.
However Wallace has now said he won't stand, which leaves Tom Tugend, and to some extent Mordaunt who also has some military background. Tobias Ellwood has said he won't run.
Sunak seems to be favourite although I see him as somewhat Marmite. The billionaire/non-dom thing won't help and he'll have to work on his low tax promises.
I'm not sure he would be their best chance electorally and as somebody who would like to see the Tories gone for a geological period of time I suppose I should favour him.
But they really need to change.
I'm thinking of chucking my Labour membership - I would probably tactically vote Lib Dem in a GE anyway and I'm cross with Starmer for ruling out rejoining the customs union, which is still as far as I can see the only way satisfactorily to comply with the Belfast Agreement (as Theresa May well knew when she put it in as the 'back stop').
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>> I'm thinking of chucking my Labour membership - I would probably tactically vote Lib Dem
>> in a GE anyway and I'm cross with Starmer for ruling out rejoining the customs
>> union, which is still as far as I can see the only way satisfactorily to
>> comply with the Belfast Agreement (as Theresa May well knew when she put it in
>> as the 'back stop').
I share the view that the only way out of the current mess is returning to the CU and Single Market.
It seems though that the focus groups are still saying that large chunks of the electorate are not ready to swallow that. Particularly so in the Red Wall where the Tories would love to be able to portray Starmer as "trying to steal your Brexit".
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>> I share the view that the only way out of the current mess is returning
>> to the CU and Single Market.
>>
>> It seems though that the focus groups are still saying that large chunks of the
>> electorate are not ready to swallow that. Particularly so in the Red Wall where the
>> Tories would love to be able to portray Starmer as "trying to steal your Brexit".
I think you're right, but I know they they'll say that anyway.
I'd have perhaps gone with "we won't campaign for rejoin", and we'll make Brexit work (the last bit means nothing at all of course, unless it's reversed it will work, even if very badly).
Then agian TBH I'm not sure it's worth trying to unite Labour voters behind one clear policy. Brexit has created two constituencies of Labour voters, and he'll fall between them if he's not careful.
He needs to work out how to get PR and oppose the Tories by coalition. One thing PR should help achieve is to mitigate against very large single issue populist majorities.
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Didn't Penny Morduant have five minutes of fame when she used the word cock repeatedly in her maiden speech (or very early in her MP career) as some sort of mess room dare?
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>> Didn't Penny Morduant have five minutes of fame when she used the word cock repeatedly
>> in her maiden speech (or very early in her MP career) as some sort of
>> mess room dare?
>>
www.youtube.com/watch?v=hvLcYUXBBuc
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Yeah, that's the one.
On another note, I see the new Education Minister is setting a fine example.
"New education minister Andrea Jenkyns has said she " should have shown more composure" as she appeared to make a rude gesture while entering Downing Street.
"In a widely-shared video she is seen showing the crowd her middle finger while on her way to No 10."
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62105688
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>> On another note, I see the new Education Minister is setting a fine example.
quote
Explaining her actions, she said a group outside the gates were "insulting MPs... as is sadly all too common".
End quote.
Maybe she should ask 'why does the general public hold politicians like her in such contempt?'.
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>> Explaining her actions, she said a group outside the gates were "insulting MPs... as is
>> sadly all too common".
>>
>> End quote.
Other reports say that while there were a few protestors, including 'EU Man' Steve Bray, the majority were tourists or people working locally observing the day's goings and comings.
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>> He's the defence secretary, from what i gather very popular with Conservative members.
Wallace has ruled himself out according the Graun.
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tinyurl.com/y8nfsb9c
Nice to see Shapps with 'Null point'
Last edited by: Kevin on Sat 9 Jul 22 at 15:40
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Re-joining the EU is a non-starter policy for any Tory leader -- a party political admission of defeat. It is an unlikely key policy for either main party (despite the stupidity of the original decision) - they are both still evidently split.
It is also somewhat academic - would they have us back and on what terms. It would simply be another 5+ years of uncertainty and conflict with possibly no satisfactory outcome.
The real question is which leadership contender is most likely to have fruitful negotiations with the EU - requires diplomacy and compromise on both sides. Boris was unable to do this - he was so convinced of his view he was intolerant of any other.
The UK is heading towards a difficult period - cost of living, NHS waiting lists etc. The public are more likely to be receptive to restoring closer links with the EU if sold as bringing clear benefits without using the re-join word. A return to the original "common market", not political union.
Some harmonisation - free movement of labour to address NHS problems, compromises to remove trade barriers, retaining more residual EU rules to eliminate inconsistencies. etc could be both achievable and sold positively, perceived as rational and popular, not as a UK climbdown.
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Apparently Zahawi's tax affairs are under investigation by HMRC. Not good news for him.
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..the irony of this is that Boris (despite allegedly knowing of this) appointed him Chancellor of the Exchequer, to whom HMRC ultimately report!
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From the Guardian: "The investigation did not lead to any action and there is no suggestion of wrongdoing."
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The Guardian is basing its story on an initial article in the Independent.
The Independent updated yesterday to say that though the foregoing NCA/SFO investigation had been closed with the above, they had passed data forward to HMRC who have a currently "unresolved" case running.
HMRC have different powers and interests to the criminal investigators, so as yet, if the Independent is correct, some matters appear to remain "unresolved".
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>>some matters appear to remain "unresolved".
Seems to be the main theme of our times doesn’t it?
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Sounds like 'the Blob' is trying to ensure that he is not selected.
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Blob? he?
Last edited by: Manatee on Sun 10 Jul 22 at 12:42
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>> Blob? he?
He is Zahawi. Somebody is leaking information suggesting he's been dodging tax.
The blob is the anti Zahawi (or perhaps fixedly pro Johnson) section of the party who are briefing against those who brought the Greatest Ever Prime Minister down.
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.. and there was me thinking he'd brought himself down really... :-)
Even at the top, people have to blame anyone but themselves these days...
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It would be far better to base opinions on the explicit , proven and documented rather than unsubstantiated speculation and rumour spread by the media and other contenders with little or no foundation.
No great supporter of Zahawi - perhaps its just politics - the reprehensible jockeying for position as normal.
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My view is that few of them have done enough at the topmost level for us know enough about them to form an opinion really, and some of the things they are known for could just be their worst but most publicised "moments" (anyone for cheese Liz? :-) )
I don't watch as much news or read as much politics as I used to but I knew the name Tugendhat but nothing in depth about him, similar with Penny Mordaunt, Grant Shapps, Nadhim Zahawi (except he's been grabbing quite a bit of airtime over the past few months) , Kemi Badenoch, and Suella Braverman.
I do remember some of the less favourable stories (Truss - cheese, Mordaunt - cock) and I recall reading a bit about how unqualified Suella was for the role she landed, but I've not been aware of anything she's done, well or badly.
Anyway fwiw my forecast treble is Hunt, Sunak and Javid. That's my favoured order but I reckon Rishi will get it.
Not that our opinion really matters as we don't get to vote for them anyway :-)
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>>I recall reading a bit about how unqualified Suella was for the role she landed
Main concern is she's political, although she is also not rated as a lawyer apparently. Part of the responsibility of the Lord Chancellor and of the Attorney is to make sure the government doesn't break the law. Braverman has signed off on breaking the NI protocol on some dodgy pretext that it broke the Belfast Agreement.
Javid is a good bloke and capable by all accounts. Hunt has a cleaner skin, not having been in Johnson's cabinet. He's also rehabilitated himself a bit, having admitted he underfunded the NHS. Rishi I'm not sure about - it's pretty clear he has been organising his pitch for some time.
Has Javid not dropped out yet? Rishi was trying to persuade him that they would harm each other's chances. There is always a risk that they will go out in the same round and leave someone like Truss as the compromise candidate. Too self-promoting IMO but she'll never win an election for them.
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>> >>I recall reading a bit about how unqualified Suella was for the role she landed
>>
>> Main concern is she's political, although she is also not rated as a lawyer apparently.
She's totally underqualified as a lawyer AND she's overtly political.
Predecessors like Cox, Grieve, Mayhew or Havers (in no order of merit) were 'proper' Queen's Counsel who attained that status through professional practice. She was awarded the status AFTER being appointed. Prior to election she was a middle ranking Junior in commercial tax etc.
I've never heard of a lawyer who rates her. The Doyen of legal correspondents, Johua Rozenberg is utterly scathing of both her work and the degree to which she's politicised a 'quasi judicial' role.
The Court of Appeal's judgment on her attempt to refer the sentences of PC Harper's killers as unduly lenient is coruscating. Words used to describe her arguments are Judge Speak for 'bat s*** bonkers.
Her recent public statement to the effect that under 18s cannot go through gender re-assignment because the minimum age for a Gender Recognition Certificate display either utter legal ignorance OR a willingness to play fast/loose for political ends.
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Sun 10 Jul 22 at 18:07
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The Blob is the anti-Brexit civil service cohort.
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Calum Macdonald had a nice line on Times Radio this morning when he referred to Boris Johnson as "the third Prime Minister to be brought down by Boris Johnson".
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I don't know why anyone with serious ambitions is bothering to stand. The Tories are likely to lose the next election and that is normally curtains for the party leader.
Best to let some patsy have the gig for the time being and be waiting in the wings for when the time is right.
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>> I don't know why anyone with serious ambitions is bothering to stand. The Tories are
>> likely to lose the next election and that is normally curtains for the party leader.
>>
>> Best to let some patsy have the gig for the time being and be waiting
>> in the wings for when the time is right.
Hunt may be a safe pair of hands but with no long term ambition?
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I'd heard Hunt described (perhaps a little unfairly) as Theresa May in trousers minus the personality.
I think he's got very little chance with the Conservative members.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Sun 10 Jul 22 at 18:15
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>> I don't know why anyone with serious ambitions is bothering to stand. The Tories are
>> likely to lose the next election and that is normally curtains for the party leader.
>>
There's a lot of water to go under the bridge before the next election. Labour is 9 points in front, I wonder what that, roughly, means in terms of winning seats?
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The membership race is likely to be a contest between the Establishment, probably Rishi Sunak and the right wing of the party probably Liz Truss. Sunak Is likely to win.
Labours lead at the moment is due to the fact that Keir Starmer presents himself as everything that Boris is not i.e as an honest and serious politician
Come the Autumn we are likely to have Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer being compared and I rather feel Sunak will come out of that contest as the winner in the eyes of the public especially if Labour dissolve into their usual bout of infighting at the Party conference. I rather think the Tories will win the next election.
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>> the eyes of the public especially if Labour dissolve into their usual bout of infighting
>> at the Party conference. I rather think the Tories will win the next election.
I could put a flatulent donkey up against the Tories at the next election and provided it didnt actually s*** everywhere, it would walk it. Its Starmers to throw away.
And frankly I agree. I am by inclination right leaning, but the whole parliamentary party make me vomit in disgust
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It’s interesting to see as each candidate puts their name forward for leader, there is immediately a pile of scandal/ corruption/ accusations against them.
This Tory party really are a pile of charlatans and each is as bad as the other. The majority supported Boris and it is easy to see why. They do not have a shred of conscience or morals and are purely in it for themselves and to line their own pockets.
The whole lot disgust me.
I am obviously not a fan of the Tories at any time, but I do respect people who have differing opinions from myself on how the country should be run, taxation policies, economic strategies etc.
But this lot, there is no strategy, and sadly Boris’ tenure has now lowered the bar, both of expectations and of accountability.
Sometimes I wish I had been brought up in a Tory supporting household, it would certainly make accepting this current shambles a bit easier.
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The Tories have a large majority with over two years until the next election, and no good reason to call one earlier.
The outcome will depend on what happens with cost of living, inflation, NHS waiting lists, employment etc. Some of this is beyond their control - eg: Ukraine.
Boris went from hero to zero in two years. His successor may reverse his performance.
Starmer has a lead in the polls mainly because he is not Boris. He is perceived as honest and decent, but not remotely inspirational. The Labour party has either failed (certainly not communicated) to come up with a coherent plausible set of alternative strategies.
They need to do much better to be confident of winning.
The election of a new Tory leader is also not dissimilar to the Labour leadership elections in 2019. Corbyn (like Boris) did not want to go - he had to be pushed and still maintains it was unfair.
Contenders included both realistic leadership propositions + initially a collection of fantasists, incompetents, politically extreme etc. Starmer was just the safest air of hands!
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The question you have to ask is the electorate anti Boris or pro Starmer. I rather think that Starmers’s lead in the polls is nearly all down to the sheer awfulness of Johnson. If Starmer end up opposing Sunak I think I know who will look the most impressive head to head.
I don’t want the Tories tio win another term but I believe they will.
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This latest contender has produced a video featuring various people who don't seem to have been asked, with the result that Jonnie Peacock, the British Paralympic sprinter, has asked to be removed.
Also shown was Oscar Pistorius. An edited version has removed these people and also the Covid vaccines expert Dame Sarah Gilbert, who presumably also objected. It has also removed footage of armed forces and police personnel, who are not normally used in political campaigns.
Mordaunt has also apparently rolled back her previous views on trans rights.
The stupidity of all this is astonishing and destroys any credibility she might have had.
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Could there be a scenario where one certain Mr B Johnson, having bided his time, throws his name in the leadership hat and wins. He then sets about his own ' night of the long knives ' against those he sees as traitors to the cause. Or is he automatically barred ?
Also, where is Rees-Moggy in all this...he's keeping a low profile !
Asking for a fiend.
Ted
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>> I don’t want the Tories tio win another term but I believe they will.
It's OK. Truss is riding to Starmer's rescue.
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Looks like the bar to get on the list for the first round is going to be higher than expected, 36 MPs. I guess it cuts down on the no hopers.
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This leadership contest is following (sadly) predictable lines, dominated by a media concerned largely with relative trivia and "tittle tattle". Attention thus far has been on digging dirt - mostly history, largely imagined or inconsequential, and simplistic "will you cut taxes" questions.
This is not insightful, investigative, informative reporting, but pathetic playing to the crowd.
Far better to focus on major achievements and failures inside and outside politics, demonstrable leadership qualities, capacity to manage effective working relationships with other senior leaders and institutions, evidence of judgement etc.
Tarring them all with the "they are all corrupt Boris loving and incompetent" brush is just empty rhetoric. Most made their "wedge" through success and competence in endeavours pre-politics. If corrupt they would find public scrutiny of all their actions a major constraint.
Irrespective of individual political views we are all going to have to live with the outcome for the next 2+ years. It is in all our interests that the best candidate is selected, not the least able or most saintly chosen solely to give Starmer (or who ever may succeed him) the best chance at the next election.
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>> This leadership contest is following (sadly) predictable lines, dominated by a media concerned largely with
>> relative trivia and "tittle tattle". Attention thus far has been on digging dirt - mostly
>> history, largely imagined or inconsequential, and simplistic "will you cut taxes" questions.
So far as I can see the need for tax cuts, where they should be directed and over what timescale is fundamental to the pitches of the candidates. The 'cakeism' of the Johnson message has been a significant cause of disagreement between him and Sunak. A desired return to low tax/low spending traditional Conservatism was also causing dissent on the back benches and in the Cabinet.
If candidates are committing to immediate tax cuts, including the NI hike for the NHS/Social Care then it's not unreasonable to ask what will be cut.
I agree that evidence of competence and leadership both in parliament/government and in careers prior to election are relevant. Some, like Braverman, ought to fall at that fence.
Neither can the extent to which they remained hitched to Johnson even as his unfitness became more and more evident be ignored.
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>> Neither can the extent to which they remained hitched to Johnson even as his unfitness
>> became more and more evident be ignored.
. "As a member of the cabinet, I tried to display a sense of loyalty, but privately tried to get the leader to change his ways"
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>>
>> >> Neither can the extent to which they remained hitched to Johnson even as his
>> unfitness
>> >> became more and more evident be ignored.
>>
>> . "As a member of the cabinet, I tried to display a sense of loyalty,
>> but privately tried to get the leader to change his ways"
That's OK if the leader is wrong about policy. If he or she is a crook, look for another job.
If the next leader is going to be another Brexit nutter, or captive to them, then better (for the country) anyone who will lose the next election for them.
Otherwise, character is what's important. Seriousness and good judgement are worth more than outright intelligence (within reason - Dorries or Cleverly need not apply). I'd exclude any of those who were loyal to Johnson with the possible exception of Javid who had the bottle to resign as Chancellor when Johnson wouldn't back him against Cummings. He knew he might never get back in. Javid is also widely considered a decent egg and capable. Sadly as a one time Remainer I think he's probably seen as soft (read sensible) on Brexit so I don't think he'll get enough support.
I think however that once again the MPs will for a 'winner' if they think they can spot one. That could work for Sunak.
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Where's the demands for tax cuts come from, and why are they being listened to? There are bigger fish to fry surely?
Sounds like straightforward bribery to me, to capture the most public support which would enhance their chances of selection.
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>> Where's the demands for tax cuts come from, and why are they being listened to?
>> There are bigger fish to fry surely?
Low tax low spend traditional Conservatism.
Demand is within the party both in parliament and in the grassroots.
Would love to be a fly on the wall or a bug on the phone line when MPs are discussing the leadership with their constituency chairs.
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They are tax minimisers, because they are the party of the rich. You can only get money from people who have it, and their donors have it. It's that simple.
Their clients don't care about the NHS because they have their own healthcare. They care less about benefits because they don't need them. Crumbling, boarded up town centres are of little concern because they can live abroad or in nice areas. Potholed roads are not so bad experienced in a Range Rover and anyway your Conservative council will prioritise road repairs in the better off areas.
Voters support low taxes because they think they are better off by paying a little less. They don't make the connection between the tax they pay and how it benefits them.
The job of governments is to do things for people. The Tories would rather do as little as possible so that taxes can be lower.
The Conservative idea is supposedly that people are better at deciding how to spend their own money than the government is. But people don't build roads, hospitals, libraries, schools.
Redistribution in the form of public services and infrastructure is an essential function of government that the Conservatives work hard to minimise.
I actually think that most politicians, Conservatives included, go into it because they want to make things better. But Conservatism is a political cult, not logic.
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>> Looks like the bar to get on the list for the first round is going to be higher than expected, 36 MPs.
I guess it cuts down on the no hopers.
>>
As things stand we have a winner and the rest did not make it.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ffqemZ-YOi7AvAw8HbxmMd0vIbsOXLZ7KpAmNQPD2r8/htmlview?pru=AAABghG4g5U*qu7FUXBPg2zLozRSFS-NdQ#gid=0
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>> As things stand we have a winner and the rest did not make it.
There are 358 current Tory MPs. Only about a third of then so far expressed support for a candidate and some of the 'candidates' are not, or at least not yet actually candidates.
I also think there's some confused reporting about the numbers needed for a nomination to get on the round one ballot and how many votes needed to get into round two.
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The thing that surprises me, is the lack of support for the Labour Party and Keir Starmer. What don't people like about Starmer?
yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers
I am a died (dyed?) in the wool Tory (Surprise!) I am never going to vote for anyone else. In 2019 I declined my parliamentary vote at the polling station and only voted in the local elections.
I don't like Boris, but I am not going to vote Labour.
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"I don't like Boris, but I am not going to vote Labour."
I suppose that's nearly me too. However
"I declined my parliamentary vote at the polling station"
isn't. I am a strong believer that votes should never be wasted. ISTR voting liberal/libdem once or twice in the dim and distant, as a sort of one-man protest.
Which round here would normally be not noticed but with all the new housing the demographic (and it's politics) are changing - we no longer have a Tory council.
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Around 4m people have private healthcare, mainly provided by their employer. In the 2019 election 14m people voted Tory.
Some of the 10m Tories without private healthcare may want the NHS dismantled - but I suspect most (including me) don't. Some of the 4m enjoying private healthcare will support the NHS - they may change employer, retire, have friends or family not so privileged.
I also looked at the record of health spending and privatisation of the NHS - answers are less clear but broadly over their time in office both Labour and Conservative governments increased health spending - Labour increased by more but they also sold off/privatised more - possibly driven by PFI deals
The glib "the Tories want to dismantled/sell off the NHS" rhetoric is, frankly, nonsense unsupported by any rational analysis.
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>> Around 4m people have private healthcare, mainly provided by their employer. In the 2019 election
>> 14m people voted Tory.
>> Etc.
Was that a reply to me?
To be clear, when I refer to the Conservative's clients, I mean donors not voters.
Their voters are just useful helpers.
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>>
>>
>> The glib "the Tories want to dismantled/sell off the NHS" rhetoric is, frankly, nonsense unsupported by any rational analysis.
>>
The only government to ever cut the NHS budget was the Labour one under Callaghan back in the seventies.
It is about time though that we stopped regarding the NHS as a religion and looked at how other countries fund theirs - unless someone can prove our system really is the "Envy of the world"?
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>> Around 4m people have private healthcare, mainly provided by their employer. In the 2019 election
>> 14m people voted Tory.
Although I was thinking of the donors, who largely dictate Tory policy IMO (at least Nadine Dorries thinks so) some out of date info I found suggests that there were about 4 million policies covering around 10% of the UK population. But that is just the insurance policies.
Of the two people I know who have had big surgeries recently (hip replacements) both had them privately, paid for directly by themselves because they didn't want to wait.
Nothing on that scale but I have gone private at my own expense for physiotherapy when the alternative was to wait months, and my wife has also had elective surgery privately.
There's probably a lot of uninsured private care.
I don't think the Tories want to abolish the NHS and I never suggested that, but I think there could be issues in the future around scope and quality of care. They won't abolish it because it provides such good opportunities for totally secure high returns on private capital.
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..when I was first offered private medical insurance as part of my employment package (attractive at just the BIK cost), as I'm sort of opposed to bypassing the NHS (at least in the way that private treatment often paralleled it) I agonised for some time before putting it in place.
My (genuine) rationale was that if I or SWMBO had to wait, then it was as a result of a conscious decision on our parts, BUT, if either of the kids had need life-changing treatment, and had been put on a long waiting list, I knew I would have looked back with regret for ever.
As it was, the only people who benefitted from it were myself and SWMBO, none of the occasions being entirely life-threatening.
(As it happens, I would personally have been compelled by my employer to take it out anyway, as it comprehensively covered overseas business trips - and the travel insurance that was lumped in proved useful for family trips anyway).
As elsewhere, SWMBO had a hip-replacement on the NHS three weeks ago. Whilst she delayed the initial consultant session (being a bit squeamish) until she really needed action, it was 5 months from that to operation, which is pretty good (very good given current background). She was told that it would be three months earliest; if it had been a long waiting list, we would have been £14-15K lighter of wallet. (Not much better things to spend savings on than healthcare if it isn't readily forthcoming free).
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Rees Mogg and Dorries have given Truss their full backing.
Dorries says "She's a stronger Brexiteer even than we are". Truss campaigned for Remain in 2016.
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Ah but Dorries often mixes up her words due to her dyslexia. Nothing to do with any other ability, oh no! :-)
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>> Rees Mogg and Dorries have given Truss their full backing.
That will make all the difference. Truss is doomed.
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Hunt and Braverman both make the cut.
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But javid doesnt, I'm a bit surprised at that one.
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>> But javid doesnt, I'm a bit surprised at that one.
I am too.
One suspects a failure to cultivate support on the back benches.
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Oh well, just like my Grand National betting one of mine has fallen at the first :-)
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I think the smart money is on Mordaunt.
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>> I think the smart money is on Mordaunt.
Smart and Tory leadership does not compute.
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That Braverman, an utter dud should have had more support than Javid, a decent guy with a strong career both before and after becoming an MP, is baffling.
These things can go horribly wrong, as we have seen before.
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No massive surprises in the first round of voting, hunt was one of the no hopers. I thought zahawi would get knocked out in round 2 rather than 1, but i don't think he was ever going to be one of the last 2.
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Boris has fair played a binder in his latest distraction technique to take focus away from his disasters for the country.
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It's quite shocking to me that all the candidates seem prepared to push on with the NI protocol bill.
It doesn't look as if things are likely to get much better Brexit-wise.
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Its deckchairs on the Titanic, Using the tractor to turn over the silage pile, < insert waste of time metaphor here >
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Whilst it's no longer viable, I believe I saw a quote a day or so ago by Zahawi that he would certainly give Boris a cabinet post!
The only reason he might have got the chance is because the Tory party had finally decided Boris was beyond the Pale, totally unfit for any purpose, and a complete electoral liability.
What planet are they on!
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“The Tory party had finally decided Boris was beyond the Pale, totally unfit for any purpose, and a complete electoral liability.“
What gives you that idea? The parliamentary party may have had enough of him although I suspect he still has a number of admirers there but as far as Party members are concerned there is a sizeable element that thinks Johnson has been hard done by and remains their hero for making Brexit work. They hate Sunak for bringing Johnson down and are likely to vote for Truss or more likely Mordaunt in the final showdown. I was talking to a neighbour today, a Tory councillor, who expressed exactly that view.
Last edited by: CGNorwich on Wed 13 Jul 22 at 21:07
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The Tory party is fundamentally split:
- those who don't want to admit Brexit was flawed and favour one with Brexiteer credentials
- those who will be out of a job/out of favour if a centrist is elected
- those worried about the next election and would like to deny if they could Boris ever existed
Sadly most of the contenders are promising tax cuts today - probably unaffordable without spending cuts despite the fantasy rhetoric.
Sunak is the only one who seems honest about this - either he or Penny Morduant who has no cabinet baggage would be my favourites.
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as far as Party
>> members are concerned there is a sizeable element that thinks Johnson has been hard done
>> by
I dont know why you keep saying this, its fundamentally wrong.
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>> I dont know why you keep saying this, its fundamentally wrong.
Do you seriously think there is not a "sun shines from BoJo's bum" cohort in both the Tory party and the populace at large?
Below the line comments and vox pop contributions to that effect confirm my worst fears...
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I’m afraid you’re right Bromp. I know people, who should know better, who still think Brexit was a good idea and that Boris is a great bloke.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, they can’t actually tell me why they think those things or begin to quantify their reasons for doing so, but they genuinely seem to believe it.
I suppose it’s not dissimilar to some Americans still thinking Trump was a good idea.
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"I suppose it's not dissimilar to some Americans still thinking Trump was a good idea."
Worryingly it seems to be a rather large "some", in both places
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>>
>> I dont know why you keep saying this, its fundamentally wrong
Do you think then that all those Party members who voted for Johnson to become Party Leader and have been unswervingly loyal to him are all now universally opposed to him and will happily vote for Sunak, the man that they see as having wielded the knife and who stands to win most from their hero’s downfall?
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The nation is divided and the economy wrecked because the party in government is hostage to the Brexit nutters,. Two of the least nutty candidates have been eliminated,.
;Of course Johnson is still widely admired. Incredible to me, but true. Sunak has gone out of his way to pay tribute to Johnson despite having knifed him, in a transparent bid to maximize his chances with the 110,000 old white people who have the final say.
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I wonder what the cause of this division was, we seem to have an inability to see things from someone else's pov. A sensible politician to some is a dangerous nutter to others.
I doubt there's any single cause or perhaps we've always been divided but it's under the surface most of the time.
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It is a lot easier to at least understand another point of view if the holder/s of it can rationally and quantifiably explain why they hold it.
Those who continue to support Boris and his cohorts remind me of abused spouses, still eager to defend their abusers despite the visible and recent bruises.
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>> It is a lot easier to at least understand another point of view if the
>> holder/s of it can rationally and quantifiably explain why they hold it.
Quite possibly, however what's rationally to one is word soup to some others.
However my point was more when/how did we get here, although it's complex I doubt there's any one point where it all happened.
Those who continue to support Boris and his cohorts remind me of abused spouses, still
>> eager to defend their abusers despite the visible and recent bruises.
I'm sure plenty of those that support Boris think the same about others with a different POV.
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>> I wonder what the cause of this division was,
It all goes to Brexit, plus the hijacking of the referendum result to implement the suicidally hard Brexit we have now, far beyond the sunny picture painted by Leave in which we would retain many benefits.
>>we seem to have an inability
>> to see things from someone else's pov. A sensible politician to some is a dangerous
>> nutter to others.
One man's meat etc but it's not IMO a lack of ability to see another POV so much as a reluctance or inability of hard right Tories to say what their POV is - they want the hardest possible Brexit, but the reasons they give really don't stand up.
Nobody can now believe in the economic benefits. Britain's influence in the world has already been severely diminished by it. On current projections, it is only a matter of time before we drop out of the G7.
So what are these reasons they can't or won't specify? They hate what they see as a superstate, and any sort of trade off of sovereignty despite the fact that leaving the EU means we have to forge scores of new agreements, including with the EU, all of which entail ceding sovereign rights. Those are evident.
Others we can guess at - some are probably just xenophobic, most I would guess are anti-immigration. They seem to believe that the UK - probably England and the English - are somehow superior to to other nations of Europe. They want to bin the ECHR - how will that improve the lives of UK citizens?
Something else we know is that the party is now largely dependent on donations from wealthy pro-Brexiters. We can only guess at why they are so supportive. Is it to swerve intended EU tax cooperation? Or because it's easier to influence a national government than a European level legislature? Much of the previously wider base of supporters withdrew from donating after the referendum.
>> I doubt there's any single cause or perhaps we've always been divided but it's under
>> the surface most of the time.
The old division was Us and Them - the workers and the employers. It made sense. The interest of capital and the inevitable effect of capitalism is to minimise wage. Wealth generation needs both sides but the capitalists have convinced themselves and their useful idiots that it is they who create wealth.
Brexit has severely disrupted such equilibrium as existed. Over half of both Labour and Conservative constituencies voted Leave (FPTP again). The new division runs right through the supporters of both parties.
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>> >> I wonder what the cause of this division was,
>>
>> It all goes to Brexit, plus the hijacking of the referendum result to implement the
>> suicidally hard Brexit we have now, far beyond the sunny picture painted by Leave in
>> which we would retain many benefits.
>
>>
>> One man's meat etc but it's not IMO a lack of ability to see another
>> POV so much as a reluctance or inability of hard right Tories to say what
>> their POV is - they want the hardest possible Brexit, but the reasons they give
>> really don't stand up.
See I'm not so sure brexit is the start/cause of it, it is a symptom of it though. i think it goes back further than that.
I expect somewhere there's some research on it all.
The rest pros and cons be argued either way and no doubt will be for some time.
>> Brexit has severely disrupted such equilibrium as existed. Over half of both Labour and Conservative
>> constituencies voted Leave (FPTP again). The new division runs right through the supporters of both
>> parties.
>>
I'd agree on that, both parties have a fine line to walk.
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See I'm not so sure brexit is the start/cause of it, it is a symptom of it though. i think it goes back further than that.
Remember Brexit didn’t start in 2016 though. There was a long build up in the planning for it. Some suggest as far back as 2011 when Russia started the process involved in UK voting leave.
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Remember Brexit didn’t start in 2016 though. There was a long build up in the
>> planning for it. Some suggest as far back as 2011 when Russia started the process
>> involved in UK voting leave.
>>
Wanting to leave the EU, on any sort of scale, didn't start in 2011 either.
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>> Do you think then that all those Party members who voted for Johnson to become
>> Party Leader and have been unswervingly loyal to him are all now universally opposed to
>> him and will happily vote for Sunak, the man that they see as having wielded
>> the knife and who stands to win most from their hero’s downfall?
The overwhelming majority of interviews I have seen all say the same thing. great bloke but screwed up once too often and has to go.
Brixit is gone, the Brexiteers know we are out and will stay out, the remainers know we are out and will stay out. Everyone knows we aint going back in in our lifetimes.
His big selling point is yesterdays chip wrappers and EVERYONE knows it from all wings of the divide. Going forward we need to get rid of Boris and EVERYONE knows it. (even my Brexit loving estate agent cuz)
Answer this one simple question, if you can. Why did the party dump him if they think the country loves him and would being them another win.
They dumped him because he is an electoral liability. No other reason. They saw their seats disappearing from under them
Last edited by: Zero on Thu 14 Jul 22 at 08:51
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Watching some of these candidates interviews reaffirms my belief that the present Tory party is so far removed from my own views and political leanings.
To see then fight out about tax cuts, Lining their own pockets of their rich benefactors and press barons and no mention being given of cost of living crisis totally sickens me. They are all scrambling around promising the Earth to colleagues in return for votes.
I know its flippant to say but a multi multi millionaire like Sunak really doesn’t want to become PM to make life better for the working class person.
The whole lot are a bunch of arrogant selfish egotistical maniacs.
There, I feel better now.
This is interesting on how the process works twitter.com/restispolitics/status/1547252677616214020?s=21&t=pbh-Etss8DxCu8oHJqjl4Q
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This is interesting on how the process works twitter.com/restispolitics/status/1547252677616214020?s=21&t=pbh-Etss8DxCu8oHJqjl4Q
>>
>>
I think that's pretty much common knowledge as to how it works. It's not a big reveal, despite Campbell pretending to be shocked.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Thu 14 Jul 22 at 09:32
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>..despite Campbell pretending to be shocked.
Ah Campbell. The man who made a career out of deception and is now desperately trying to portray himself as still being relevant.
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>> >..despite Campbell pretending to be shocked.
>>
>> Ah Campbell. The man who made a career out of deception and is now desperately
>> trying to portray himself as still being relevant.
There has always been spin, then there were professional spinners - advisers employed to promote their principals, party and policies.
Now there is fake news and lying routinely by those principals themselves. People like Campbell were almost saintly in hindsight. At least he was playing for the right team:)
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>People like Campbell were almost saintly in hindsight.
You are forgetting that Campbell elevated spin to another level in British politics. He is just as guilty for the progression of lies and deceit as any of the others.
It won't end until we make deceiving the public a capital offence. We should start now.
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>> Watching some of these candidates interviews reaffirms my belief that the present Tory party is
>> so far removed from my own views and political leanings.
>>
>> To see then fight out about tax cuts, Lining their own pockets of their rich
>> benefactors and press barons and no mention being given of cost of living crisis totally
>> sickens me. They are all scrambling around promising the Earth to colleagues in return for
>> votes.
All of that. Them with no bananas need help, them with more bananas than they can ever eat need to give more back to the society that toiled to grow the bananas.
>>
>> I know its flippant to say but a multi multi millionaire like Sunak really doesn’t
>> want to become PM to make life better for the working class person.
I hold no brief for Sunak, but I wouldn't say that. He's a billionaire, at least via his wife, so unless it's pure greed (in which case he probably wouldn't have gone into politics anyway) he should be incorruptible. I think most politicians at least start with good intentions.
>> The whole lot are a bunch of arrogant selfish egotistical maniacs.
They do seem to go that way. Power (and patronage) corrupts?
>> There, I feel better now.
It won't last! I'm permanently cross about it.
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I think you miss my point. Yes Boris is finished in politics (a at least for the time being). Yes the large majority of Tory Party members acknowledge that but there a large portion of who are almost fanatical in their admiration of Boris and they are not going to vote for the man they see as someone who plotted for months hto bring him down and eventually wielded the knife,
They represent the biggest obstacle to Sunak winning and why I believe Mordaunt is going to win.
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Who will be the next Prime Minister ? - sooty123
