***** This thread is now closed, please CLICK HERE to go to Volume 3 *****
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Continuing discussion.
Last edited by: VxFan on Mon 7 Mar 22 at 10:51
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Local Shell station had unleaded at 146p last night... this morning it's gone up to 150p and that's for fuel already in the ground.
Also where are all of the self-defense missiles/equipment that we were told had been sent to help Ukraine? Have they been deployed but had no affect or have they been captured by the invading forces.. I'm sure that wouldn't go down well.
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I suspect the latter.
Always a good move to let your enemies have your best weapons texh by supplying them to a side with no chance of winning a conflict...
Ukraine is lost - our only real defence is destroying Russia's economy so the population pushes to get rid of VP.
I guess we're fated to be rebuilding our conventional armed forces again and hopefully the EU can break their dependency upon Russian energy.
If that means digging coal, so be it.
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Yer nothing kills the green / eco lobby faster than a war. One wonders if we should just forget climate change, we are likely to blow the ruddy planet up anyway.
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>> Yer nothing kills the green / eco lobby faster than a war. One wonders if
>> we should just forget climate change, we are likely to blow the ruddy planet up
>> anyway.
We at least the reds have the Chernoble issue back in their hands. Lets hope they don't shoot holes in the sarcophagus. Probably deny its there and it never happened under their watch.
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>> Also where are all of the self-defense missiles/equipment that we were told had been sent
>> to help Ukraine? Have they been deployed but had no affect or have they been
>> captured by the invading forces.. I'm sure that wouldn't go down well.
It wasn't much, and it wasn't anything the Ruskies didn't already have.
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Of course China, North Korea and others are looking very closely at the West’s inaction and plotting to do the same with Taiwan and other countries.
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BJ could show some balls and suspend any green policies and encourage the production of domestic gas & oil to counter the current price rises and any possible future shortages....
Yes I know we reduced our gas storage capability but there must be some way of improving our resilience.
The sanctions are designed to hurt Russia but they are having a big impact on the UK.
Not a fan of BJ but he could get some brownie points if he acts with an immediate policy that will benefit the UK public.
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It could all turn out very badly for Russia. It’s army is largely untested in recent years and the war seems to be unpopular in Russia. Winning a conventional war is comparatively easy if you have the manpower and hardware but fighting a guerilla war in a hostile country is a different matter. If the war turns into a war of resistance by the Ukrainians and Russians start returning home in body bags Putin could become very unpopular ver quickly.
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>> Russians start returning home in body bags Putin could
>> become very unpopular ver quickly.
There are pictures of mobile cremation machines deployed by the Russian military to stop that happening.
www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russia-deploys-mobile-crematoriums-follow-26314565.amp
Germany and the EU? not supporting banning Russia from the SWIFT system is a disgrace.
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The Telegraph reported that the Russian army has mobile crematorium facilities. If true, it’s another horrible aspect of this conflict.
PS just seen Zippy’s post. Must be true if it’s in The Mirror.
Last edited by: martin aston on Fri 25 Feb 22 at 09:54
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>>If the war turns into a war of resistance by the Ukrainians and Russians start returning home in body bags Putin could become very unpopular very quickly.
>>
Are they are avoiding using body bags by using mobile crematoriums?
www.snopes.com/fact-check/russia-mobile-crematoriums/
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Also where are all of the self-defense missiles/equipment that we were told had been sent
>> to help Ukraine? Have they been deployed but had no affect or have they been
>> captured by the invading forces.. I'm sure that wouldn't go down well.
They are in use and have been used, but they aren't a magic wand. You can't win a war with them on their own.
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Seems Russian Special forces are in the capital. The government has been seen burning documents.
I think it might be tricky for the Russians they have avoided cities so far and have generally bypassed anything other towns but at some point they will have to enter a city.
Lavrov is on tv, he seems to justify the invasion because the Ukr gov banned the Russian language in schools.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Fri 25 Feb 22 at 10:17
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BBC have just launched a new podcast “ Ukrainecast”. Worth listening to.
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Ukraine are seriously out-numbered, out-equipped, and (I suspect) out-trained. The outcome is inevitable.
The support the EU and US have provided is too little, too late. It may slow down the Russians, it will not stop them.
Folk seem content to condemn the Russians (justifiably), argue for greater sanctions (eg Swift system), yet are not prepared to pay the price of a few pence on a litre of fuel. Get real!!
Where all this leads I am unclear, but there are some lessons to learn:
- might is right (like it or not). We need teeth to back up our rhetoric (or meekly accept it)
- we have compromised energy independence - chasing low prices ahead of security
- the Western view of global politics and human rights - where is China, India etc
- hoping Russians will rise against Putin is almost certainly naive
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Poland seems a bit nervous.
Panic-buying petrol everywhere and they're queueing to withdraw money, too.
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"yet are not prepared to pay the price of a few pence on a litre of fuel."
One hears that statement so much. Neighbours use it regarding the NHS and tax/NI, and childcare re tax and NI. Heard it used about policing, roads, social care and other stuff. A few pennies for each good cause wouldn't be cheap and many are struggling already with inflation and energy costs.
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It seems likely that what Putin is doing was what he planned and prepared for anyway, and all the 'diplomacy' would probably have been to no avail regardless. Not that Johnson and Truss seem to have much of a clue. Threatening Putin publicly with sanctions or anything else was surely futile, since to work it would have required an equally public climb down from a man who clearly believes he is always the cleverest in the room.
As somebody wrote in the letters section of today's 'i', Theodore Roosevelt advocated speaking softly and carrying a big stick, and Johnson has been doing the opposite. His words were for his audience at home, not Putin, and once again he has done the wrong thing for reasons of self interest. I don't suppose he took any advice.
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Appears the US and the EU are also sanctioning Putin in the next couple of days.
Looks like another night of heavy bombardment for those in Kyiv.
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That’s all very well but we don’t really have a big stick do we? At the end of the day whoever was PM I suspect our response would have been pretty similar. We are a small island off Europe with a lot less clout than our politicians would like us to believe.
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>>That's all very well but we don't really have a big stick do we?
No we don't, but conducting negotiations with someone like Putin in public is just stupid.
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No we don't, but conducting negotiations with someone like Putin in public is just stupid.
>>
Who is conducting public negotiations with putin?
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>> Ultimatums then.
>>
Been a busy day, missed that one.
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>> That’s all very well but we don’t really have a big stick do we? At
>> the end of the day whoever was PM I suspect our response would have been
>> pretty similar. We are a small island off Europe with a lot less clout than
>> our politicians would like us to believe.
>>
Pretty much my view. The UK has under 70,000 troops at it's disposal. Russia has sent nearly three times that number to Ukraine alone. I have no doubt they also heavily outnumber us by a similar number with ships and aircraft. All GB and Europe can do is play the long game with sanctions, only the US has the capacity to stand face to face with Russia and they no doubt realise full well where that would end.
Sometimes you just have to accept that it's checkmate and wait for the board to be set up again.
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Can we not get someone to take Putin out??
We are looking for a new James Bond. This could be part of the selection process!
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>Lavrov is on tv, he seems to justify the invasion because the Ukr gov banned the Russian language in schools.
I don't believe that is correct but anyway Putin's hero banned Ukrainian.
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The Telegraph is reporting that Russia has said it would consider military action if Sweden or Finland join NATO!
Sorry, I’m on my mobile and can’t link the article.
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www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/02/25/russia-threatens-finland-swe
den-joining-nato-ukraine-invasion/
Last edited by: Duncan on Sat 26 Feb 22 at 06:31
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>> The Telegraph is reporting that Russia has said it would consider military action if Sweden
>> or Finland join NATO!
Sweden has long been neutral - 200 years? - and Finland at least pragmatically so since 1945.
Both have debated membership in the past with a degree of political controversy in both countries.
Only last week it was being suggested that a route out of the Ukraine crisis was for it to adopt a similar stance to Finland.
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>> Only last week it was being suggested that a route out of the Ukraine crisis
>> was for it to adopt a similar stance to Finland.
Finland is a whole new ball game, Nato does not come into it. The ruskies are scared crapless of Finland. The border is difficult terrain, and Finish soldiers are the nearest thing to a European Gurkha we have.
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Hmmm, Connection to "Russia Today" has been blocked. Access OK if I pretend to be from Hungary.
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It’s working for me but out of principle I am not reading it.
There is a USAF F16 looking like it’s on CAP duties over Romania
fr24.com/VIPER31/2af2301b
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There’s also a Global Hawk drone over the Black Sea:
fr24.com/FORTE11/2af2300b
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If you use this site, select the desired area, and apply the 'Military' Filter it will hide all other aircraft.
globe.adsbexchange.com/
i cannot find a way of posting a link with filter options set. Anyone else can do?
It sometimes shows aircraft that FR24 does not display.
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>> If you use this site, select the desired area, and apply the 'Military' Filter it
>> will hide all other aircraft.
>> globe.adsbexchange.com/
Thanks!
Lots of tankers. Very few aircraft needing refuelling - they don't have their transponders on?
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Thanks!
>>
>> Lots of tankers. Very few aircraft needing refuelling - they don't have their transponders on?
>>
Correct.
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There's been loads of patrols up, usually 6 or 7 tankers up around the clock. Busy times.
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Much is being made of the SWITCH system.
It is a messaging system only and does not actually make any transfers of money but does carry messages such as payment and transfer instructions.
These messages are in a standard format and are fed to a bank’s transaction processing system.
Removing a country from SWIFT will not stop banking transactions but will very likely slow them up.
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well it looks like its not going quite as well as Putin Expected - the war is becoming very messy indeed. Think he forgot that in a populated country you cant wage a half war and expect to win, to win you have create a lot of collateral damage. Damage you pay for over the long term with a resentful population causing you agro. So much for "Russian Brothers".
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"... its not going quite as well as Putin Expected..."
Indeed. Even without the problems Russian troops are experiencing, there is now significant opposition among Russian politicians to the extent to which Russian troops have advanced - they thought they had voted just for the reinforcement of the eastern areas which Moscow has recognised as independent, not for an assault on Kyiv.
And now China has abstained on the United Nation's Security Council resolution condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine; while not exactly a condemnation of it, it effectively leaves Russia isolated on the world stage. Of course, this may not bother Putin unduly.
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And by the looks of things there are still flights leaving Moscow heading for EU airports, I thought there was a ban on flights... or was that just us?
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>> And by the looks of things there are still flights leaving Moscow heading for EU
>> airports, I thought there was a ban on flights... or was that just us?
>>
>>
3 European countries so far; UK, Bulgaria and estonia.
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*
Last edited by: Fullchat on Mon 28 Feb 22 at 21:38
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I see that more countries in NATO are sending more weapons to Ukraine, including Germany. We have taken a lead role in delivering them to the Ukr armed forces.
Although it's always difficult to judge videos online, it seems that supply issues are hitting the Russian military*. No doubt advancing on several axis is a double edge sword it gives them the ability to stretch the Ukrainians armed forces but it leaves the russians with several supply lines to feed. Not overly surprising, the media seemed to have spent the past 5-10 over assessing the Russian military capability, especially Putin's strategic moves in the middle east. He's been stretching his forces thin for years to put on a show.
I see the largest of Russian artillery is being brought fwd, I wonder if this is them doubling down. A throw of the dice to see if they can breakthrough before this becomes an obvious stalemate.
*videos online show Russian troops bartering for fuel.
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>> I see that more countries in NATO are sending more weapons to Ukraine, including Germany.
>> We have taken a lead role in delivering them to the Ukr armed forces.
>>
On Flight Radar there's an RAF Globemaster over Poland. I suspect it has dropped supplies.
fr24.com/RRR6420/2af3c740
There are also RAF Typhoons in the air, some were over Turkey earlier, supported by an Airbus Voyager. They are heading back to Cyprus. There are Typhoons over Germany that were over Poland earlier, supported by another Voyager.
There are US Army helicopters in Poland and several large USAF re-fuelling aircraft from Mildenhall and Ramstein over central Europe.
The fuel / air rockets the Russians are bringing in sound awful. Clearly they are not a pinpoint accuracy / surgical strike weapon but are designed to inflict maximum casualties in as wide and area as possible. I suspect a lot of civilians will be killed.
Wishing all the best for Ukraine and its population.
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Indeed busy times, plenty of sorties across Eastern and Central Europe.
As for Thermobaric weapons, maybe they'll use them, depends how mad Putin gets. May well be a step change in attitudes to him and his government if he does.
Whether it changes the laid back attitude to things like a credible defence and energy security in NATO and the EU, who knows.
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Putin is surely now persona non grata permanently around the world.
Belarus is sick of Lukashenko.
The endgame is Putin is toast or we all are.
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There was a suggestion on the radio that at the moment the Russian troops at the front were the lower end of the scale as regards fighting ability - conscript types . The more experienced are on standby behind. To be fair they've been on 'exercise' for a while before the invasion in poor conditions. Probably used to it but must take its toll.
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>>Putin is surely now persona non grata permanently around the world.
www.reuters.com/lifestyle/sports/putin-suspended-honorary-president-international-judo-federation-2022-02-27/
Oh dear! How will he spin that story ?
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Germany "doesn't do" arming conflict zones. Until now.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60541752
Truss has said the UK will back anyone from here going to Ukraine to fight.
I suspect this may be a cover for sending SAS and similar units in covertly.
Last edited by: Lygonos on Sun 27 Feb 22 at 10:43
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>> Germany "doesn't do" arming conflict zones. Until now.
>>
>> www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60541752
>>
>> Truss has said the UK will back anyone from here going to Ukraine to fight.
>>
>> I suspect this may be a cover for sending SAS and similar units in covertly.
They are already there, and have been before the ruskies left the departure gate.
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Germans have announced they will spend on minimum of 2% on defence by 2024. That's a massive increase.
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>> Germans have announced they will spend on minimum of 2% on defence by 2024. That's
>> a massive increase.
Ouch, thats a blow to Putin. He has single handedly breathed new life and purpose into Nato. Not sure thats what he intended.
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>> They are already there, and have been before the ruskies left the departure gate.
>>
Impossible to know of course and highly improbable. The political and military consequences of such troops being discovered would have profound consequences.
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>>Impossible to know of course and highly improbable. The political and military consequences of such troops being discovered would have profound consequences.
We have already sent advisors.
Truss has now opened up the door to let them fight.
A bit like Russian 'freedom fighters' in the Donbass since 2014 - paid by Russia.
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All UK military advisors have been withdrawn. The Government has stated that no UK or NATO troops will be sent to Ukraine.
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>> All UK military advisors have been withdrawn. The Government has stated that no UK or
>> NATO troops will be sent to Ukraine.
You are terribly naive at times. Where do you think intelligence information, threat assessments, adversary capability and tactic reports come from? The Russians gave the west a long time to prepare.
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>> You are terribly naive at times. Where do you think intelligence information, threat assessments, adversary
>> capability and tactic reports come from? The Russians gave the west a long time to
>> prepare.
I don't believe the UK government would explicitly withdraw while leaving SAS or similar as armed boots on the ground. Whether there are other 'assets' operating is a different question.
There are clearly aircraft in the area including both combat types and Air Refuelling. As of yesterday FR24 was showing RPVs at high altitude over the Black Sea.
What Truss said, if it has any value at all, is that while the UK normally takes a dim view of its citizens involving themselves in foreign wars (qv Syria) an exception might be made in this case.
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>> >> You are terribly naive at times. Where do you think intelligence information, threat assessments,
>> adversary
>> >> capability and tactic reports come from? The Russians gave the west a long time
>> to
>> >> prepare.
>>
>> I don't believe the UK government would explicitly withdraw while leaving SAS or similar as
>> armed boots on the ground.
SAS guys are not always in military fatigues, wearing boots, driving around in pinkies and carrying weaponry.
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Grey men and women.
Last edited by: Fullchat on Sun 27 Feb 22 at 12:22
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> There are clearly aircraft in the area including both combat types and Air Refuelling. As
>> of yesterday FR24 was showing RPVs at high altitude over the Black Sea.
You can add JSTARS and rivet joint to that, handy for tracking movements on the ground.
We had something similar to the former until recently, unfortunately the unit was disbanded.
>> What Truss said, if it has any value at all, is that while the UK
>> normally takes a dim view of its citizens involving themselves in foreign wars (qv Syria)
>> an exception might be made in this case.
I believe the french have said something similar.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Sun 27 Feb 22 at 11:46
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>> You can add JSTARS and rivet joint to that, handy for tracking movements on the
>> ground.
The West has not had a chance to see Russian troops in combat action for decades, And in Europe too. Its an intelligence and military planners dream.
Last edited by: Zero on Sun 27 Feb 22 at 12:01
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>> There are clearly aircraft in the area including both combat types and Air Refuelling. As
>> of yesterday FR24 was showing RPVs at high altitude over the Black Sea.
>>
There were a few NATO fighters in the air on FR24 and a large Turkish Aircraft, something like a Hercules over Romania. It was interesting watching the two Typhoons from Cyprus and their accompanying refuelling aircraft return over Turkey.
With the re-fuelling aircraft doing daylong sorties, I suspect a lot of the military aircraft have their transponders off.
Then there were Globemasters which are transport aircraft. I didn't see the RAF one land, perhaps it did and I missed it, or perhaps it just parachuted supplies in to Romania for collection.
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Just why would the UK Government have sent SAS and similarly covert units into Ukraine which is what you claim.
What would be gained? A handful of lightly armed UK soldiers wouldn’t be much help against 180,000 Russian troops armed with missiles and tanks. The consequences of being discovered on the other hand could be catastrophic and led to the West being involved in full blown war with Russia.
Just weigh up the facts. Sometimes you let your imagination run away with you.
Last edited by: CGNorwich on Sun 27 Feb 22 at 11:41
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>> Just why would the UK Government have sent SAS and similarly covert units into Ukraine
>> which is what you claim.
>>
>> What would be gained? A handful of lightly armed UK soldiers wouldn’t be much help
>> against 180,000 Russian troops armed with missiles and tanks.
They are not there to fight. They are there for intelligence - You have failed to read wot I wrote.
Last edited by: Zero on Sun 27 Feb 22 at 11:47
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>>
>> They are not there to fight. They are there for intelligence - You have failed
>> to read wot I wrote.
>>
That makes even less sense. We aren’t short of intelligence are we? We’ve be got plenty of information as to what’s going on on the ground, just turn on your TV. We don’t need clandestine SAS units when we’ve got BBC reporters.
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>> TV. We don’t need clandestine SAS units when we’ve got BBC reporters.
I give up. Suggest you become Jeremy Corbyns military advisor.
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I too must give up - you seem incapable of logical thinking or argument.
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>>
>> That makes even less sense. We aren’t short of intelligence are we? We’ve be got
>> plenty of information as to what’s going on on the ground, just turn on your
>> TV. We don’t need clandestine SAS units when we’ve got BBC reporters.
Open source intelligence, such as reporters is one way to collect info. But there are many other ways, not everything can be seen by a reporter or someone with a mobile.
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>>Just weigh up the facts. Sometimes you let your imagination run away with you.
Balance of probabilities:
Will Putin stop at Ukraine? No - he has lost the plot and wrecked his position on thr world stage. He wants a buffer around Russia so almost certainly is eyeing up the 3 Baltic states.
Europe has nearly 500 million residents and approx 10 times the economic power of Russia's 120 million.
If Europe shows it is ready to stand up against Putin AND put its hand in its pocket to pay for defence and the cost of making Russia a pariah state, Uncle Joe Biden is far more likely to back Europe with his 400 million residents and similar economic might as Europe.
Turkey seems to be taking a step back from being chums with Putin (Erdogan doesn't fancy himself as a Soviet puppet leader I expect)
The flip side of this is Putin may well go the full bhuna and start splattering civilians in his mission to 'win'.
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>>
>> >> They are already there, and have been before the ruskies left the departure gate.
>> >>
>> Impossible to know of course and highly improbable.
Not at all improbable. They were there prior to, and continue to be so. The Russians know it. Its expected, its normal. (well as normal as things get in war)
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I think you may be reading too many spy thrillers.
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>>
>> I suspect this may be a cover for sending SAS and similar units in covertly.
I can't say too much, but I have been advised to make sure my boots are clean.
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...yeah, I bet they get sticky from all that time spent on on Wetherspoon's carpets....
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Was it that nice Captain Mainwaring on the phone?
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"I can't say too much, but I have been advised to make sure my boots are clean."
Have they been worn since you were on the balcony? :)
Last edited by: Fullchat on Sun 27 Feb 22 at 12:27
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The Guardian is reporting Ukrainian sources as stating that Belarus is about to declare war and join in with the Russians.
As of this morning some airlines, notably Air India, were routing towards western Europe - including LHR, vie Russian then Belarus airspace.
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If they do their infrastructure becomes fair game and it all gets even more messy.
Lukashenko is hated by most of his population remember.
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What we haven't seen is the Ukraine attacking any infrastructure in Russia.
I suspect there is (perhaps limited) capability but no appetite - it would bring the wrath of the entire Russian military down on it.
Belarus, on the other hand may be fair game?
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Dont worry - the BBC reporters will give us all the military info we need.
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>> What we haven't seen is the Ukraine attacking any infrastructure in Russia.
>>
>> I suspect there is (perhaps limited) capability but no appetite - it would bring the
>> wrath of the entire Russian military down on it.
>>
>>
metro.co.uk/video/ukrainian-missile-attack-strikes-military-airfield-in-russian-rostov-oblast-2623187/
Limited but they have struck inside russia.
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www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60542877
This is worrying, probably won't go ahead with It ,then again this is the man who said he wouldn't invade Ukraine.
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To even mutter it is the sign of a complete madman.
We have now reached halfway through the novel "Red Storm Rising" where funnily enough Soviet leadership started to talk about Nuclear weapons when the land war wasnt going well.
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Putin has clearly crossed the like into complete madness, likely to get worse as his isolation in the world increases. Surely the people at the top in Russia, whether they're his friends or placemen or not, are starting to exchange worried looks even if they haven't said anything yet? If allowed to continue this thing could rapidly spiral out of control and there can be no winners, Russia will be as scorched as everyone else.
Funny how all of a sudden our normal worries like Covid, the economy and climate change seem like a walk in the park.
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If I were Volodymyr Zelensky and had a similar view of the sanity of the opposition's leadership, I would not be meeting them on the border of Belarus or anywhere similar. IMHO it's an invitation to be either killed on route or disappeared once there and Russia will claim a terrible accident and move on.
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Did you note the generals s***ting themselves during Putin's announcement?
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The Russian economy and it's currency is going to get a real beating in the morning. They'll need all that gold (that they can access) they've saved up.
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>> This sort of news is not going to help Putin's popularity among his own people
>> -
>>
>> www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/27/ukrainian-officials-upload-videos-of-captured-russian-soldiers-on-telegram
>>
I didn't think that it was allowed to show images of captured soldiers.
www.swissinfo.ch/eng/icrc-says-pow-images-breach-geneva-convention/3231184
Last edited by: zippy on Sun 27 Feb 22 at 20:30
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Krushchev survived the backdown of the Cuban Missile Crisis.. for about a year then was dumped and Brezhnev installed.
The Russian machine (unless the generals stage a coup) may allow Putin to backdown, sue for peace a la first Finnish-Russian war (maybe 'getting Donbass' in exchange for Crimea?), and then punt him into retirement.
Or not.
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I hope this manages to reach as wide a Russian audience as possible -
youtu.be/prfaWHQoxVg
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..I think Russia are in the s*** at a level well above the Cuban Missile Crisis - the act of war under current circumstances being rather more "immediate".
The Winter War is possibly more of a parallel (particularly given the outcome of the actions), but times are very much different. (Incidentally, I've visited the Winter War monument in Finland, and had "pub" conversations with the locals that indicate that the hatred dislike of Russia endures).
I'd like to visit Finland again - great country, nice people.
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Off topic but this ATR owned by Italy's Customs Service has been patrolling the French and Belgium Coast between Bruges and and Abbeville all night. Looking for smugglers I expect.
globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=32002e
Last edited by: zippy on Mon 28 Feb 22 at 02:03
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Interest rates increased to 20%, Russian companies are being forced to sell 80% of foreign currency that they own. Ruble falls 20%.
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...All together now....
youtu.be/frAEmhqdLFs
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..."may you live in interesting times"...
If the Russian military capability and planning was as good as most of the world thought, and if the Ukrainians hadn't demonstrated rather unexpected levels of patriotism and determination (led by an ex-comedian, of all things), we might be seeing a different situation and future outlook.
As it is, Putin (and russia with a small "r") seems to have painted himself firmly into a very tight corner.
If the Blitzkrieg approach had succeeded, then I think the West, and indeed the rest of the world, would have been entirely in catch-up, and of a rather different style. Whilst the response has still been rather slow in coming, the expensively-bought extra days have ensured that a response got under way, and is now rolling.
Russia has become a pariah in almost all the World, including some rather unexpected portions. In reality, it appears the only open support it can muster is Belarus. Countries such as Kazakhstan have given a firm "no", Turkey has decided that, given the difficult (for it) choice, it would rather align with the West, and even China seem to have strong reservations.
Then you have the seismic shifts, such as Germany deciding to take its (natural) place at the head-table of European defence; erstwhile neutral Sweden deciding to supply arms to Ukraine, etc.
Then the sanctions kick in. The SWIFT ban (though admittedly not entirely comprehensive) looked like it wouldn't happen; but has. The accompanying actions, (BP, the Norwegian State Fund, etc.) add further financial blows.
Whatever the immediate outcome, be it some sort of compromise peace, or Ukraine being overrun, much of the above is not going to be rapidly reversed, and I suspect very little of it at all should Putin remain in his current position. (who is going to trust his future intentions?).
So, with a massively increased military opposition, including a much bolstered NATO presence, punitive commercial and financial sanctions, very few friends around the world, and a much diminished view of Russia's conventional military capabilities, whatever he chooses to do from here, Putin is now a big problem for Russia. I wonder how long before the Russian apparatus realises and does something about it. Even if he is a figurehead, and leaves others complicit in current circumstances in his wake, I think Russia may determine his removal is required - has anyone got the power or balls?
...of course, he could just push the button... "uneasy lies the head that wears a crown"
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>>
>>
>> ...of course, he could just push the button... "uneasy lies the head that wears a
>> crown"
>>
The one big problem at the moment. Like all despots, Putin was going to die rich or on the end of a hangman's noose. The former doesn't look likely to happen anymore.
The more I hear of him, the more he reminds me of General Jack D Ripper in Dr Strangelove.
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>> on the end of a hangman's noose
So long as he doesn't decide to take the rest of the world with him. One would hope a chain of command of generals would prevent an unnecessary escalation using a very good antidote to nuclear bombs - small lead bullets, targeted correctly.
Last edited by: zippy on Sun 27 Feb 22 at 20:36
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About the war - Volume 1
How crap is the Russian Military. - Very it seems, Very poor troops, bad or lacking equipment, terrible logistics, poor planning, apparent lack of command and control in the theatre, special forces being a long way short of special. I had visions of a crack spearhead of modern tanks thrusting to the edge of Kiev, in 48 hours - supported by paratroopers taking key crossings ahead of them, backed up by fast mobile well equipped platoons, air support on hand.
Putin. Terrible planning, unable to to take the moral high ground, all his plans and deceptions broadcast by the west before they happen - Clearly out of his depth - a fact painted on the faces of his generals at the televised "strategic" meeting.
How good has Europe been - Wow. After a slow start they have been tough, united, speaking with a single voice - very Impressed. Germany? again impressed, prepared to take a lot of future pain, willing and quick to change fundamental values they held. France - well true to form turned into duplicitous quivering wrecks the moment Macron was humiliated at the big table.
Boris. Again (tough to say this) done well. Its not all been about him and his Churchillian moment, clearly he has worked well with, and cajoled where required his European colleagues. Seems to be calm and unflustered.
The Yanks. Well the walking corpse has said the right things, not gone over the top, has let Europe take the lead. Clearly from what we have surmised, they are patrolling the skies over the Nato border efficiently with little fuss or fanfare.
The Chinese, Ok say some bad things about the west, but not prepared to upset the economic applecart, not prepared to break sanctions, not prepared to back Putin up at the UN.
Intresting time
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Yes, it is surprising how badly things seem to be going for the Russkies. However, I don't find anything reassuring in that. I can't see them retreating, humiliated, back across the border. Plenty of nasty things could happen before the war is over.
We don't know what Putin's plan was - it's hard to believe he intended to annexe the whole of the vast territory of Ukraine. Any puppet leader installed would not last long, as far as the western areas are concerned. I can't see the invasion makes any sense unless to secure the independence from Kyiv of the eastern territories.
Maybe Putin's plans changed at some point anyway.
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I don't think the Russian performance is particularly surprising, they've struggled with supply issues for years. As an example to keep the large numbers of troops on their annual exercises with Belarus they have to strip everything else back to keep going.
The media over the past 10 years have built him up as a strategic genius with a well equipped military, no idea why they all seem to think that.
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We keep getting told not to start panic buying fuel.
Then the media announce "fuel prices hit a new record high"
If that's not waving a red flag in front of a bull, then I don't know what is.
It was the medias fault last time, when everyone started panic buying.
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>> Then the media announce "fuel prices hit a new record high"
>>
>> If that's not waving a red flag in front of a bull, then I don't
>> know what is.
>>
>> It was the medias fault last time, when everyone started panic buying.
The difference then was that, in reality, there was no shortage just a 'little local difficulty' with one supplier in one part of the country.
Petrol is now unarguably close to £1.50/litre and diesel a little over.
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Not seen any signs of panic buying, and at £1.50 or more a litre, and home fuel costs doubling, I am not surprised.
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I just paid 155 for diesel, petrol was 151.
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>> I just paid 155 for diesel, petrol was 151.
I now cant fill my tank from empty to full at a pay at pump, because of the £99 limit
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>> I just paid 155 for diesel, petrol was 151.
Those sort of numbers have just been mentioned in the wrap up at the end of World at One.
Petrol at Sainsbury's yesterday, when I topped up the Fabia, was less than £1.50 but the price for diesel was around £1.52. Actually no diesel available but I think that was a site issue rather than any problem with supply.
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>> Petrol is now unarguably close to £1.50/litre and diesel a little over.
Go South, young man. Go South.
I have just filled LD's car at Sainsbury's in Cobham @ 144.9 per litre for E10 and filled the lawnmower can with E5 @ 151.9 per litre.
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Last Tuesday unleaded in Cardigan was 139.9 at Tesco. Tesco in Haverfordwest was 151.9 at that time and in Fishguard it is now 153.9.
It's going to be expensive making Molotov Cocktails if the Ruskies invade.
Last edited by: Robin O'Reliant on Mon 28 Feb 22 at 14:47
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>> Last Tuesday unleaded in Cardigan was 139.9 at Tesco. Tesco in Haverfordwest was 151.9 at
>> that time and in Fishguard it is now 153.9.
>>
>> It's going to be expensive making Molotov Cocktails if the Ruskies invade.
They wont make it here without running out of fuel. And we'll make the commies queue for the pumps
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>> Go South, young man. Go South.
>>
>> I have just filled LD's car at Sainsbury's in Cobham @ 144.9 per litre for
>> E10 and filled the lawnmower can with E5 @ 151.9 per litre.
Northampton has always been a hot spot for fuel prices compared with places as close as Leicester. When my Mum was alive and living that way I'd regularly play fuel light bingo so as to fill up at Fosse Park.
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I’ve just paid £1.45 a litre for diesel at our local Morrisons this evening.
With the aid of a 7p a litre discount voucher donated by my wife’s mother that she got after shopping in the store.
Knew she had to come in handy for something eventually. ;-)
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And the 2022 Award for Giant Balls goes to the Ukrainian woman at 1:15 in the video.
"Takes these seeds so sunflowers grow when you die here"
www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-60558621
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Cant help notice that some of these meetings with his top level minions are conducted at the other end of a very long table supposedly to minimise a Covid threat. Covid or an assassination attempt?
Paranoia? One would imagine a very thorough search of the minions before meeting their leader.
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>> Cant help notice that some of these meetings with his top level minions are conducted
>> at the other end of a very long table supposedly to minimise a Covid threat.
>> Covid or an assassination attempt?
>> Paranoia? One would imagine a very thorough search of the minions before meeting their leader.
Not just minions; Macron got the long table too.
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It is just a way of demonstrating power and authority.
The same thing happens in the UK, US and Europe - big desk, big office, big car = I'm more important than you.
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>> Not just minions; Macron got the long table too.
I'm pretty sure Putin puts Macron in the minion category.
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A 40 mile Russian convoy is heading for Kyiv.
BBC News was saying that the Ukrainian Air Force may be given European fighter jets in Poland and may even be allowed to operate them in Poland.
Does Russia have air superiority yet?
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Last I heard was that the Ukrainian Air Force had not been neutralised.
This is going to get very messy soon - Ukraine have a fair number of US Javelin anti-tank missiles which appear to be very effective at turning even to toughest tank into a pressure cooker.
And the Russians will continue to up the ante with increasingly destructive missiles/artillery.
Do the Ukrainians have access to Apache gunships?
I don't think I'd want to be a Russian tank operative just now.
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>> BBC News was saying that the Ukrainian Air Force may be given European fighter jets
>> in Poland and may even be allowed to operate them in Poland.
I cannot see that actually happening. Too much risk of escalation.
>> Does Russia have air superiority yet?
Apparently not according to news reports this morning. That's one reason why troops are advancing by night.
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>>I cannot see that actually happening. Too much risk of escalation.
Poland and the Baltic States have very significant skin in this game - if I was them I would be doubling down on stopping Ukraine going under.
We should be focussing on the continued economic crippling of Russia - 2% of the world economy is fubared when 50% of it wants it kneecapped.
China won't bail Putin out - they depend on the West for their continued financial success.
Last edited by: Lygonos on Tue 1 Mar 22 at 11:35
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There appears to be confusion about the aircraft situation, the EU said they would buy aircraft for UKR. The easiest way is to give them the same type (or very close) now, with Poland, Slovakia and Bulgaria being the only countries that meet that criteria, people have assumed that is what would happen.
However the Polish PM has said Polish aircraft won't travel into UKR airspace, whether there is some change over beforehand or some other slight of hand remains to be seen.
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>> However the Polish PM has said Polish aircraft won't travel into UKR airspace, whether there
>> is some change over beforehand or some other slight of hand remains to be seen.
Not what types/roles these a/c would have but putting any form of combat aircraft into UKR hands or airspace would be a formidable escalation. NATO head seems to have ruled it out even if they were UKR crewed.
Since the UKR airforce seems to comprise a handful of Soviet era machines there would be significant time/cost implications putting any Western type of significant complexity into service.
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>> >> However the Polish PM has said Polish aircraft won't travel into UKR airspace, whether
>> there
>> >> is some change over beforehand or some other slight of hand remains to be
>> seen.
>>
>> Not what types/roles these a/c would have but putting any form of combat aircraft into
>> UKR hands or airspace would be a formidable escalation.
Not just that, of the three widely named countries, how many have either the numbers or with what is going on the interest to give any aircraft up?
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You will be pleased to hear Rees-Mogg managed to get his £44m moved from a Russian bank shortly before he applied sanctions to them. Phew, that was close!
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>> You will be pleased to hear Rees-Mogg managed to get his £44m moved from a
>> Russian bank shortly before he applied sanctions to them. Phew, that was close!
Oodathortit...
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>> You will be pleased to hear Rees-Mogg managed to get his £44m moved from a
>> Russian bank shortly before he applied sanctions to them. Phew, that was close!
Simeball, I have wiped worse than him off my shoes in a dog walking area. Iwouldn't p on him if he was on fire
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>> You will be pleased to hear Rees-Mogg managed to get his £44m moved from a
>> Russian bank shortly before he applied sanctions to them. Phew, that was close!
>>
Been trying to track down the source of this story.Do you have a link?
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>> >> You will be pleased to hear Rees-Mogg managed to get his £44m moved from a
>> >> Russian bank shortly before he applied sanctions to them. Phew, that was close!
>> Been trying to track down the source of this story.
Do you have a link?
>>
Any help? - DT 30 January 2022
Jacob Rees-Mogg's City investment firm has cashed in its stake in the Russian lender Sberbank, avoiding this January's turmoil on the Moscow stock exchange caused by rising tensions on the border of Ukraine.
Somerset Capital Management, which was co-founded by the Leader of the House of Commons, sold its final shares in the bank in autumn last year as Vladimir Putin built up a massive military force.
Mr Rees-Mogg maintains a shareholding in Somerset Capital Management but is not involved in its investment decisions. He set up the fund with Dominic Johnson, a former vice-chair of the Conservative Party, and fund manager Edward Robertson in 2007. Mr Rees-Mogg stepped back from active work on its investments when he became an MP in 2010. He worked as a part-time adviser on the fund until 2019.
Sberbank's shares have plummeted due to the escalating tensions in Ukraine. Its shares have fallen by more than 30pc since October 2021. Russian stocks have suffered generally amid speculation of further sanctions on businesses from the West. International banks have now been told to prepare for restrictions on Russian businesses and individuals.
Somerset Capital Management drew fire for its investment in Sberbank in 2018. The fund was criticised by Labour and market commentators for maintaining a £44.5m investment in the bank while Mr Rees-Mogg was involved in policy debates about Russia and Mr Putin. Sberbank's chief executive is Herman Gref, a Putin ally who was economic minister between 2000 and 2007.
Mr Rees-Mogg has said that Britain "must not deal with Putin" due to Russia's alleged involvement in the poisoning of a former Russian military office in Salisbury in 2018. He has also supported measures to freeze Russian assets in Britain.
But he has said Somerset Capital Management does not invest his money and has a stated aim to invest in emerging markets.
Somerset Capital Management started winding down its holding in Sberbank in 2019. It sold its final 361,861 shares between September and November 2021.
Mr Rees-Mogg did not respond to a request for comment.
Oliver Crawley, partner at Somerset Capital Management, said: “Jacob Rees-Mogg no longer works at Somerset Capital Management and has had no role in any of the firm’s investment decisions for over a decade.
"Somerset Capital’s funds, including the Somerset Emerging Markets Dividend Growth Fund, are solely mandated to invest in emerging markets including China, India, Brazil and Russia.”
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>>Somerset Capital Management started winding down its holding in Sberbank in 2019. It sold its final 361,861 shares between September and November 2021.
Looks like sound management rather than evildoings.
Echo Zed's post above tho.
Last edited by: Lygonos on Tue 1 Mar 22 at 20:37
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So not quite as originally reported then. Although not a fan of this politics he has always struck me as being fundamentally honest and a man of some integrity.
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>> So not quite as originally reported then. Although not a fan of this politics he
>> has always struck me as being fundamentally honest and a man of some integrity.
He has his own code no doubt, which includes being "completely opposed" to choice on abortion in any circumstances including rape and incest.
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>> He has his own code no doubt, which includes being "completely opposed" to choice on
>> abortion in any circumstances including rape and incest.
>>
Nice family photo. Terrific names for the children - and Mum!
www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-6216385/JACOB-REES-MOGG-time-mighty-State-British-family-first.html
Last edited by: Duncan on Wed 2 Mar 22 at 08:08
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"I'm pretty sure Putin puts Macron in the minion category."
Probably, or at least he'd like to.
Macron set himself up for a fall. Since Merkel's departure, he seems to fancy himself as the leading voice in the EU.
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Just sent £200 to the Ukraine Appeal at britishredcross.org.uk/survive. Please send something yourselves.
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As one commentator notes:
"You know you've f'd up when Switzerland is taking sides"
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But how to stop him? If they don't give in he'll level the country.
I wonder if the deferral of sanctions on VTB, Russia's second biggest bank, has been rescinded yet.
inews.co.uk/news/government-accused-of-absurd-sanctions-loophole-after-giving-russian-bank-customers-30-days-to-wind-down-assets-1490017
Seemingly connected with a source of donations to the Conservatives. Unfortunate.
www.opendemocracy.net/en/dark-money-investigations/tories-given-44000-by-top-official-at-sanctioned-russian-bank/
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If we don't try to stop him who is next?
It seems any sort of organisation has collapsed in the traffic jam North of Kyiv. It seems to have moved only a mile or so south. The traffic jam has grown to 50 miles.
Looks like the smoke and mirror 'large scale exercises ' are being shown up for what they are.
The Russians will be glad the Ukr airforce is so weak. It'd be the highway of death all over again.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Thu 3 Mar 22 at 09:01
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I am surprised how poorly managed the Red Army is. I can’t see NATO being overly worried anymore about their conventional war fighting capabilities. Seems poor planning, poor morale and poor leadership are everywhere. Even the famed Spetznatz seemed to be given a b***** nose when they tried to take the airport near Kyiv.
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Russian GDP/capita is still well under half of USA's and probably quite a bit under, and that's before the sanctions. On that basis alone they should be well short of matching the US in quality or quantity. But they have the nuclear which levels things up somewhat and their lack of capability in conventional fighting only increases the chance of WMD's being used when Russia's back is to the wall.
In Ukraine, they might be hopeless at hand to hand but they can make the cities uninhabitable with bombs, shelling and missiles. I doubt if that was in the plan but it will probably come before retreat in the list of alternatives.
Even if the US or NATO had the will to destroy the bogged down armoured column/evict the Russian forces it's an unacceptably high risk strategy. Ukraine looks doomed unless a certain president becomes incapacitated.
Even a hint of NATO getting involved in military action could mean a nuke on the Dogger Bank.
There must be a lot of war gaming going on. Is Putin rationally appearing irrational, or is he just irrational?
Ukraine of course had had some nukes before sending them to Russia in exchange for a non-aggression pledge.
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I suspect the 50 mile long tank thing will slowly circumvallate Kyiv.
Similarly we should circumvallate Russia.
Nothing in, nothing out.
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It seems unlikely Putin will call off the attack. His behaviour is utterly unpleasant and irrational - ill health, mental illness, dementia, etc may be the cause to judge from his appearances on TV.
He is clearly unmoved by the suffering of civilians. The only people who can change the outcome are those closest to him:
- the West understandably finds it too risky an escalation,
- Ukraine is out gunned and out numbered and will ultimately succumb
- any protest on the streets in Moscow etc will be robustly put down
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>> It seems unlikely Putin will call off the attack.
He cant, His military has performed appallingly and cant pull out without losing face, He will have to rewrite his narrative from "police action" to "war" to justify the body count, the world thinks he he is a complete madman and wants to try him as a war criminal, at best he will end up tied up for years trying to quell a defeated but not cowed spite laden population, with money he hasent got after being made a global financial pariah.
You really cant fathom out what the end game was
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Meanwhile back home Putin has the support of this band ...
Who's in Putin's inner circle and running the war?
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60573261
The happy fellow of the long table really looks detached from his close advisors.
See
Putin presses spy chief Sergei Naryshkin during a meeting with Russia's top security officials.
It looks like a bit more than just " pressing".
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Putins demeanour and NVCs said a lot.
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>> Putins demeanour and NVCs said a lot.
i read somewhere, that the cabinet thought he was posturing with the troops prior to announcing recognition of the breakaway states, which they assumed the west would puff and huff about but with little option to stop,
Worse the Army thought the same thing, and didn't know they would be invading greater Ukraine.
Hence no attack plan, no air cover, no logistics and no success.
Last edited by: Zero on Thu 3 Mar 22 at 20:08
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> Worse the Army thought the same thing, and didn't know they would be invading greater
>> Ukraine.
>>
>
Certain people new, appears field grade officers knew. The bulk of the troops in their immediate post capture debriefs knew nothing and it was all a large exercise as far as they knew.
Appears many aren't getting fed, living off out date rations and robbing supermarkets.
When you have to buy cheap chinese 2 way radios off ebay and seemingly you've no idea about crypto, you're in trouble.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Thu 3 Mar 22 at 21:42
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>> When you have to buy cheap chinese 2 way radios off ebay and seemingly you've
>> no idea about crypto, you're in trouble.
baofeng#s apparently 30 quid a pop. I have one here, going to invade Elmbridge and de duncanfy it.
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baofeng#s apparently 30 quid a pop. I have one here, going to invade Elmbridge and
>> de duncanfy it.
>>
Make sure your rations are 7 years out of date comrade.
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>>
>> Make sure your rations are 7 years out of date comrade.
>>
...if he corners him in Wetherspoons, that's already sorted... ;-)
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>> baofeng#s apparently 30 quid a pop. I have one here, going to invade Elmbridge and
>> de duncanfy it.
You will be boldly repelled by my trusty band of comrades. We are ready for anyone who comes in knackered Beemers.
Last edited by: Duncan on Thu 3 Mar 22 at 22:46
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There is a Tesco and waitrose on the invasion route - logistics are not a problem
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>> I am surprised how poorly managed the Red Army is. I can’t see NATO being
>> overly worried anymore about their conventional war fighting capabilities. Seems poor planning, poor morale and
>> poor leadership are everywhere. Even the famed Spetznatz seemed to be given a b***** nose
>> when they tried to take the airport near Kyiv.
>>
It’s a huge worry. If they perform so badly I suspect that their masters will resort to nuclear weapons sooner.
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Vlad can speak English, I never knew that -
www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrXf8Qn9pBI
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