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Ongoing debate.
Last edited by: VxFan on Mon 21 Dec 20 at 10:50
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More proof that the Government ignored all the warnings... (links to the Sun)
tinyurl.com/y28tgyxx
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well the new tiers have been published ...... but nobody can look them up because the website has crashed.
sums it all up really.
www.gov.uk/find-coronavirus-local-restrictions
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The site seems to be working now. Having checked I know my area is to be Tier 2 but I'd be hard pressed to summarise all the rules. The main thing seems to be that we can't meet anybody inside except our son who lives on his own and has consented to make a support bubble with us. Otherwise we can only socialise outside and only in a group of 6 or fewer.
I'm actually meeting quite a lot of people at the moment because I'm building a house. Monday it was bricklayers, Tuesday my project manager and the boss of the scaffolding company, today scaffolders, tomorrow or Saturday some groundworkers to do some concreting.
In other contexts I have met or arranged to meet several other people in connection with local matters e.g. village hall refurbishment plans.
I don't regard any of this as primarily social but it isn't my work. I try to keep a bit of distance but none of them seem to notice.
In theory the builders are operating with appropriate measures, in practice I think they are doing what they always do. Most arrive in a shared van or car, they share the portable toilet, they work side by side. COVID has never been mentioned in any of our conversations.
In tier 3, the 6 maximum outdoor socialising applies but excludes gardens. I infer that this is simply designed to reduce the total number of contacts but I predict much grumbling and non-compliance from people who can't see the difference between meeting in a private garden and in a park.
Whilst appreciating the community responsibility here, I think a lot of people just aren't going to engage with these rules.
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>> The but I predict much
>> grumbling and non-compliance from people who can't see the difference between meeting in a private
>> garden and in a park.
Always will be, whatever rule comes in.
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We have had a similar process for some months.
www.gob.cl/coronavirus/pasoapaso/ (It's in Spanish) Click on each bar to see the rules.
Each borough is assessed separately and there are specific indicators (new cases per pop, fatalities, hospital capacity etc. etc.) which govern movement from one step (paso) to another, up or down.
My comuna (borough) is at step 4. Essentially a fairly normal life with restaurants and bars open, but capacity restrictions. And outside gatherings limited to 50 people, inside to a number I don't remember. Even gyms can open.
One is allowed to travel to any comuna which is step 3 or higher.
It is not optional to follow the rules, they are enforced and people do follow them. The incentive to do so is achieving the next step. And avoiding fines of course.
Businesses which do not strictly follow the rules simply have their licence to operate taken away. Even if the licence was wrongly taken away it can still take 6 months to get it back, so they don't risk it.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Thu 26 Nov 20 at 12:51
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Just nipped into Aldi to see if they had any padded lumberjack shirts left in 'man aisle'.
As I'm there I noticed coming along the displays at 9 o clock, male, early twenties. He goes out of sight and comes in at my 3 with no mask and up close. Bearing in mind that Hull is at the top of the Covid list.
"Excuse me I don't want you breathing on me"
"I'm not F'in breathing on you."
It verbally went down hill from there and I had to resort to my finest of put downs perfected whilst dealing with mouthy muppets over 30 years.
Bit of entertainment for the other shoppers.
He subsequently climbed into a 'Highway Maintenance' van in the car park, shouted a few profanities in my direction and lobbed some rubbish across the car park.
I do really struggle with this wish washy wear a mask if you want to and if you don't it doesn't matter type of regulation.
Whilst I'm probably too old, well not probably - I am, for this kind of conflict. My saving grace was I looked like a bag of ***te myself having spent the day chainsawing and log moving :)
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>> It verbally went down hill from there and I had to resort to my finest
>> of put downs perfected whilst dealing with mouthy muppets over 30 years.
>>
Go on then, I'm all ears!
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The swear filter would go into overdrive JB :)
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Dont get that kinda thing in Waitrose.
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Must have been really cheesed off.
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Mask discipline has been pretty good. If I was on the bike and fuelling up, I leave my helmet on and flip the visor down. No issues other than a steamed up visor...! I went to a local shop to collect a newspaper the other week, and only upon leaving that I didn't have a mask on, neither did the staff (our encounter was very brief) - no-one batted an eyelid !
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Darned good job he wasn’t in Spain with the Guardia Civil around. You do not mess with them.
I’m walking 5 days a week with different groups/friends. Masks on in car parks, and at all times until out in open countryside. Even walking through deserted mountain villages we wear our masks.
And the midnight to 6AM curfew here in the Valenciana region is strictly monitored. On the spot fines unless a very good excuse.
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France - vigilant Gendarmerie - 135€ for no mask + 135€ for no attestation ( self completed permit to be out). Makes for an expensive 3 minute visit to get the Gauloises in a local town.
The police have become super interested since a government minister criticised their effectiveness.
i guess she probably failed the attitude test :)
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There's only one 6.00 in day, so no risk there
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www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-55057700
Apparently it allows you to carry on trading during lockdown.
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I may be misunderstanding this but I think it is saying that no live virus has been detected after 9 days.
So if you take off 5 - 7 days before symptoms appear, a day or three to fix a test then you are only just about in the window of having a positive test. Presumably if it all takes a bit longer then although you could be still suffering you have no live virus left in you.
It does say that "patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection are likely to be most infectious in the first week of illness" which is quicker than SARS and MERS.
But the paper is all a bit technical so I may have come to the wrong conclusion.
www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(20)30172-5/fulltext#seccestitle10
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I'm hearing on social media that Stoke hospital has declared a major incident with 38 patients in ICU on ventilators and just 7 ventilators left.
EDIT should have checked b4 posting www.stokesentinel.co.uk/news/stoke-on-trent-news/major-incident-declared-royal-stoke-4745300
Last edited by: smokie on Sat 28 Nov 20 at 14:00
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I think with stories like that a bit of context is important, how often does that happen at this time of year? How often do they reach, roughly, 80% capacity, is that the normal threshold for declaring a major incident?
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I don't know where your 80% comes from - is it ventilators, not beds.
Hospitals can only ever run at 100% or less of bed capacity unless patients are left on trolleys. And for ICU I assume that beds are allocated initially on clinical need, and when push comes to shove on the basis of clinical priority.
This means that some patients who would normally qualify for an ICU bed will not get one. Hence very sensible contingency arrangement to transfer patients to adjacent hospitals!
Incidentally there is rarely spare capacity in public services except through planning errors. If so, budgets would be reduced and applied to another serice with greater needs. This is true for:
- NHS where needs are almost infinitely variable and managed through waiting lists, and
- education where aggregate school places matches aggregate pupils limiting real parental choice
If an NHS has several hundred Covid cases it will inevitably deny treatment to other lesser needs!
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Without rereading it, there's 7 ventilators remaining unused. My rough maths says that's 20% unused.
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Yes Sooty, the point of the story is, presumably, that they are nearing capacity, in fact are so near that they have declared it a major incident.
You think they are over-reacting or something?
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My point, like I said earlier, is context is important. It helps us understand the story behind the headlines.
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>> Yes Sooty, the point of the story is, presumably, that they are nearing capacity, in
>> fact are so near that they have declared it a major incident.
If they're getting to the point where they would struggle for ICU capacity in the event of a major crash on the M6 (for example) then it's time for contingency plans to be activated.
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If you need ICU and it's not available you usually die.
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Arguably, of course, if you don't die then you didn't actually need it.
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>>Arguably, of course, if you don't die then you didn't actually need it
It may reduce or prevent longterm disability (brain damage, kidney failure, etc) of course.
Or enable you to survive what should have killed you, but leave you a vegetable...
Last edited by: Lygonos on Sun 29 Nov 20 at 17:23
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Panic not, we Leave Europe in just over a month. Gazzilions of pounds will then be heading for the NHS to buy more ventilators than we know what to do with.
The Brexit Bus said so, it must be true.
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...the Brexit Bus loaded with ventilators will be stuck somewhere in Kent, with a large queue of lorry-drivers waiting to use the on-board "facilities"...
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>> ...the Brexit Bus loaded with ventilators will be stuck somewhere in Kent, with a large
>> queue of lorry-drivers waiting to use the on-board "facilities"...
I hope Farage gets the ventilator a trucker pwished in then.
Last edited by: Zero on Sun 29 Nov 20 at 21:16
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...I don't think they'd wait for the bus if it were only No.1s.... :-O
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>> ...I don't think they'd wait for the bus if it were only No.1s.... :-O
Might be a roughty toughty female driver, dont think they can get it in a Tizer bottle.
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..in the past, we might have had a contrary opinion expressed...
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I suppose this is what they call "long covid"
www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55017301
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Government has approved Pfizer vaccine.
Covid Pfizer vaccine approved for use next week www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55145696
Last edited by: VxFan on Wed 2 Dec 20 at 13:13
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I'm pretty sure I'm pro-vaccine but then you read something like this 2020news.de/en/dr-wodarg-and-dr-yeadon-request-a-stop-of-all-corona-vaccination-studies-and-call-for-co-signing-the-petition/ from two well respected and knowledgeable people
Last edited by: VxFan on Wed 2 Dec 20 at 13:13
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Dr Wodarg has a track record as a quick bit of googling will reveal
Wodarg gained notoriety during public discussion of the COVID-19 pandemic when he argued that SARS-CoV-2 was only one of many similar viruses which usually go undetected as part of an ordinary seasonal period of respiratory infections, and that the worldwide activities to stop the pandemic were "hype" caused by the selective perception of researchers.[4]
Last edited by: VxFan on Wed 2 Dec 20 at 13:11
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Yes, he also "denied" swine flu apparently but I can't help that it still gives rise for a little concern.
I wonder what makes such experts go rogue?
Last edited by: VxFan on Wed 2 Dec 20 at 13:11
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>> Yes, he also "denied" swine flu apparently but I can't help that it still gives
>> rise for a little concern.
>>
>> I wonder what makes such experts go rogue?
They tend to get carried away by the "stardom", a need to be recognised, quoted. Sometimes the only way to do that is to be different, regardless of the science.
Last edited by: VxFan on Wed 2 Dec 20 at 13:11
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The same things as affect the rest of us. Massive ego, desire for fame and glory, money etc.
Last edited by: VxFan on Wed 2 Dec 20 at 13:11
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>> Yes, he also "denied" swine flu apparently but I can't help that it still gives
>> rise for a little concern.
>>
>> I wonder what makes such experts go rogue?
>>
Because they are human, that fact they've got some letters after their name makes no odds.
Last edited by: VxFan on Wed 2 Dec 20 at 13:11
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Dr Mike Yeadon is also an outlier regarding COVID-19 in general. He believes the pandemic ended in June, and states that deaths from all respiratory are now lower than normal (perhaps because the 'dry tinder' has gone), and while he does acknowledge that there are excess deaths to account for he says this cannot be accounted for by COVID, rather by the curtailment of easy access to healthcare generally.
This is a month old.
lockdownsceptics.org/2020/11/04/latest-news-183/
Last edited by: VxFan on Wed 2 Dec 20 at 13:11
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The same people in my link above have now delivered a petition to the EU asking for a stay of action on the Pfizer vaccine.
tinyurl.com/y5l5kgto
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Message from my Dr Surgery, they will be vacinating from January with the Astra Zeneca
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My doctor has a Porsche...
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We don't need to know about your plastic surgery.
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>> The same people in my link above have now delivered a petition to the EU
>> asking for a stay of action on the Pfizer vaccine.
>>
>> tinyurl.com/y5l5kgto
Given that its made in Belgium, Brexit will ensure its not imported after Jan1
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Dr John Campbell does a video regularly.
If nothing else, it passes the time.
www.youtube.com/channel/UCF9IOB2TExg3QIBupFtBDxg
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I don't personally place much credence in outlier views like this, but to apply some cool logic to the vaccinate or not argument:
1. Below the age of 40 with no major health problems the risk from the virus is very low.
2. Age 60+ the risks associated with the virus increase rapidly.
Age 60+ the risks of catching the virus I would assess as materially greater than as yet unproven side effects of taking the vaccine. The younger you are the more likely it is you may feel the vaccine risks are relatively greater.
I am in my 60s and would unquestionably have the vaccine.
I am unconcerned what others choose to do - so long as I have protection they can take whatever risks they want. Just as people are at liberty to go rock climbing, mountain biking, deep sea diving etc - but I would choose not to.
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The best protection is not to be exposed to it, and the realization of that state probably depends on a sufficiently high vaccine take-up.
Pragmatism probably means not expecting that.
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The fit, healthly and active 27 year old daughter of some friends caught Covid from the pupils she teaches. It has knocked her for six.
Don't say it doesn't affect anyone under 40. It does, although obviously those below that age suffer far less. But it does affect them and some badly, even if they are healthly.
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>> The fit, healthly and active 27 year old daughter of some friends caught Covid from
>> the pupils she teaches. It has knocked her for six.
>>
>> Don't say it doesn't affect anyone under 40. It does, although obviously those below that
>> age suffer far less. But it does affect them and some badly, even if they
>> are healthly.
>>
And conversely my next door neighbours, who are knocking on 80, both tested positive in October while I was in Saint Lucia (so nothing to do with me!!) and bar loss of taste for her, and a cough for him, felt absolutely fine. They booked a test as because of the symptoms.
. Not hospitalised, just quarantined/isolated at home for a couple of weeks. They’re now out and about as if nothing had a happened! I guess it depends how much exposure you have to the virus and how heavy the viral load is.
She was at pains to tell me how careful they’d both been...and I know they were during Lockdown I as I dropped off food/prescriptions/papers to them... after that I’m not sure sure ;)
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>> >> The fit, healthly and active 27 year old daughter of some friends caught Covid
>> from
>> >> the pupils she teaches. It has knocked her for six.
>> And conversely my next door neighbours, who are knocking on 80, both tested positive in
>> October while I was in Saint Lucia (so nothing to do with me!!) and bar
>> loss of taste for her, and a cough for him, felt absolutely fine. They booked
>> a test as because of the symptoms.
>> . Not hospitalised, just quarantined/isolated at home for a couple of weeks. They’re now out
>> and about as if nothing had a happened! I guess it depends how much exposure
>> you have to the virus and how heavy the viral load is.
"I guess it depends how much exposure you have to the virus and how heavy the viral load is".
And a large dose of luck. There is little doubt that, generally speaking, the younger you are the less likely you are to suffer serious consequences, or death.
Conversely the older you are the more likely you are to be seriously ill, or die.
There can be exceptions which prove the rule in both directions.
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>>Conversely the older you are the more likely you are to be seriously ill, or die.
Or as I prefer to think of it, less unlikely to die.
I certainly think COVID is worth avoiding and I take the advised precautions and more but I don't live in fear of catching it. Most people who catch it, in any age group, survive.
I occasionally ask somebody to step away, not because I'm worried but because I don't want to worry. If I'm going to be Roy-Hattersleyed I want to keep the viral load down.
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>> I occasionally ask somebody to step away,
That might cause offence; rather like asking someone to remove their shoes before they come into your house. If someone gets uncomfortably close to me, I do the stepping back, discreetly.
:)
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There's a canal behind our house. We walk the dog along there most days. The towpath is quite narrow in places so since Covid, people now get into this weird sort of dance when they encounter someone coming the other way.
Anyway, the other week I watched just such a scenario from some distance. The ever so British jinking back and forth trying to stay apart, until one chap stepped back while he had his back to the canal...
It wasn't very funny for him, but you know...
:-))))
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>> If someone gets uncomfortably close to me, I do the stepping back, discreetly.
I find that rarely works. If they feel they need to be 18" away to talk to me, they just step forward.
At the moment I have my own personal building site. The last person I had to say something to was a groundworker. I must have moved backwards at least six feet, a foot at a time, and he just kept repositioning himself. I think I said "You just stay there - I'm trying to keep a bit of distance between us for both our sakes". He was fine about it.
Last edited by: VxFan on Fri 4 Dec 20 at 10:38
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>> At the moment I have my own personal building site. The last person I had
>> to say something to was a groundworker. I must have moved backwards at least six
>> feet, a foot at a time, and he just kept repositioning himself.
He is trying to get you to fall in a hole, its a joke all groundworkers play.
Last edited by: Zero on Thu 3 Dec 20 at 18:40
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>> He is trying to get you to fall in a hole, its a joke all
>> groundworkers play.
I can believe it, they are definitely a breed and one with some undesirable traits although a couple have been outstanding, including the Cat 320 driver who could probably have picked up an egg with the demolition grappler without breaking it.
Brickies are my favourites so far. They don't mess about. Five came one morning last week to put two courses of blocks down to bear the frame. I got there half an hour after they arrived. They had already found the setting out marks, got their lines up, moved the blocks on to the slab and stacked them ready, and mixed the first load of gobbo. Two hours later they'd finished all the wall kickers on a 16 x 10 metre house and the frame erectors this week said it is all spot on.
The erectors are pretty good as well. Worked most of the day in the rain today to keep to the schedule. Brickies will be back in due 'course' to do the cladding.
Last edited by: VxFan on Fri 4 Dec 20 at 10:38
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I have always had a personal rule that 2ft is close enough, and that was before the interference of COVID. I never accept anybody any closer to me than that. The rough guide being that if I can touch your chest then you're too close.
I get the occasional sideways look from people who seem to think that breathing in my face is their right, but really it's never given an issue when I politely mention my personal space requirements.
Even less chance of an objection now I should think.
And my experience is that if one doesn't mention it, the other person will simply move forward as their victim steps backward. So I mention it.
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I've seen in shops where someone wants to talk to the server (- esp noticed it at the pharmacy in Tesco) some people lean forward and pull the mask down while they are talking, presumably so (in their mind) their words (and breath) can get out!! Weird. Def seen many more times than once!
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>> I've seen in shops where someone wants to talk to the server (- esp noticed
>> it at the pharmacy in Tesco) some people lean forward and pull the mask down
>> while they are talking, presumably so (in their mind) their words (and breath) can get
>> out!! Weird. Def seen many more times than once!
>>
I think lots of people are very aware of them on their faces and would prefer not wear them so take the opportunity of the chance to pull them down. No doubt they are aware of their voice being muffled as well. It's understandable tbh.
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I went to the quack's the other day for an appointment. There was a sign saying "Stand here and wait to be called" about 2.5 metres from the receptionist who was behind a plastic screen.
Eventually she looked up and with a frosty stare said "Yes?" so I stepped forward. Immediately she recoiled and shouted "No stay there!".
So, mask on, I retreated and said in a very loud voice so as to be heard properly "I HAVE AN APPOINTMENT FOR A BLOOD TEST". The half dozen people waiting all jumped and looked at each other.
In the way you realise afterwards, when it's too late, that there was a much better riposte and while I was having the blood drawn I imagined myself saying in my best and loudest announcer's voice "I HAVE A GIGANTIC BOIL ON MY BOTTOM AND MY PLONKER HAS DROPPED OFF".
It's always the same at this particular surgery, the receptionists seem seriously put out at having to deal with patients. The village surgery where I try to get the appointments if I can couldn't be more friendly. Maybe I've come to expect hostility at the big surgery and consequently wear the wrong expression when I go in.
I then went to collect my prescription. The drill for this currently is to stand outside, ring a bell and talk to somebody on an intercom. Then they tell you to go round the back and stand next to a window. Some time later the top of the window opens and a hand appears holding the bag of tablets for you to grab.
While all this was going on, a charming old lady of about 95 and about 4'6" tall fell over a few feet away. I made my excuses and ran over to see if I could help. Eventually, with a couple more people and a doctor, the frosty receptionist came out and seemed surprised to find the 67 year old yobbo (me) she had been humiliating holding the old lady's head up off the wet road.
Infamy, infamy...
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Perhaps next time you should take a small white board and a marker? They might like that, possibly.
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>> Perhaps next time you should take a small white board and a marker? They might
>> like that, possibly.
Thanks Sooty. You might just have saved me from being banned.
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>> If I'm going to be Roy-Hattersleyed I want to keep the viral
>> load down.
Roy Hattersleyed?
Can you translate please?
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>>I guess it depends how much exposure you have to the virus and how heavy the viral load is.
Plus how strong your immune system is.
A fifth member of my family has tested positive for Covid-19 - my 73 year-old sister, she has no symptoms whatsoever.
She has CKD and has dialysis 3 x times a week. She also had a mastectomy some years back, plus she has 'smouldering' Myeloma so she should be more careful when out-and-about ... but isn't!
Just as well I live down 'ere!
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>> Just as well I live down 'ere!
Because you know where the selfish irresponsible idiot is?
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That didn't take long. First vaccination this morning. Just seen an advert on tv for holidays next summer, in the Azores.
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...says my cardiology consultant. He seemed to think it very likely and he's not the sort to speculate.
I went for my annual review yesterday. I told the consultant that my wife and I had had very unusual coughs between the end of January and the middle of March. Neither of us has ever had a cough like it. My wife's windpipe closed up several times for a second or two which was scary, and we both had prolonged violent coughing fits especially when lying down.
He says we had COVID. I said I had considered that, but thought it was unlikely as there was hardly any around in January. He said there was probably a lot more about than was known about, especially as there was essentially no testing. No testing = no cases, unless and until they are ill enough to end up in hospital.
Looking back in my calendar, I did spend two days in central London twice in January, and my wife got her cough about two weeks after me. So I suppose it's possible.
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Interesting video from the Beeb yesterday on Wuhan, how life is pretty normal and they haven't had a local case since April.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-asia-china-55253182
Given that there are stories that the virus was seen elsewhere up to many months before it was properly identified in China, makes you wonder whether Wuhan really should shoulder the "blame".
Last edited by: smokie on Fri 11 Dec 20 at 12:23
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You mean virus rather than vaccine?
Thanks, amended.
Last edited by: smokie on Fri 11 Dec 20 at 12:23
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>> Interesting video from the Beeb yesterday on Wuhan, how life is pretty normal and they
>> haven't had a local case since April.
>>
That absolutely has to be untrue.
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>> That absolutely has to be untrue.
Due to the unique way in which the BBC is funded, you're most probably right.
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Its due to the way the Chinese control information.
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Oh dear!
Nearly 40% of Covid patients in N Hampshire hospitals for CV-19 actually caught the virus while in hospital being treated for other illnesses. 139 out of 357 and 5 died.
www.basingstokegazette.co.uk/news/18937458.hampshire-hospitals-say-38-9-caught-covid-19-hospital/
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We at least they ate better than a diet of Greggs..........
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>> We at least they ate better than a diet of Greggs..........
>>
If it’s anything like the food served in the QA in Portsmouth, I wouldn’t be so sure about that...
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Three cheers for the NHS staff who remain in their jobs while that's happening around them, and I mean the spread of the disease and the press looking for damning statistics.
That article refers to a whistle-blower story it reported on 12 March, which details a case which looks like it may have taken place in the very early days, when there was much less knowledge and equipment available. Easy pickings for a desperate reporter to make a scaremongering story really.
It would be wrong to suggest that hospitals aren't potentially risky, there was a comedian years ago who had a line about not going to hospitals as they are full of ill people. But it's a shame thta readers will come away from that article with yet more doom and gloom to spread on social media.
Last edited by: smokie on Fri 11 Dec 20 at 16:28
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The article actually refers to parts of the stats published by the Telegraph and it's not just N. Hants. Mention of the whistleblower is just the Gazette filling up column inches.
But, they were still moving patients with obvious CV-19 symptoms (and their beds) from assessment units to general wards at the end of May. I know, I was one of them.
When my test result came back +ve it was too late, I'd already been moved to a general ward about 6hrs earlier. All they did was stick a yellow sign on the door into the general ward and move me to an isolation room behind red stickers.
I couldn't fault the staff but the guidelines and procedures they were given were woefully inadequate. Even I could see that.
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I can see a huge rise in infections just after the Christmas period. People are getting very slack on taking precautions and many just don't seem to understand that this is far from over. The guidelines on family gatherings are going to be ignored by those who seem to think that their lives are going to be destroyed by showing a bit of restraint for just one bloomin' year and are warbing on about their "Mental health" because of the lockdowns. Nothing a sharp kick up the jacksee wouldn't cure IMO.
The next wave of infections could well be the most widespread.
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>> The next wave of infections could well be the most widespread.
You know what? After 9 months of this IDGAS any more. What will happen will happen. Sod it.
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>> What will happen will happen. Sod it.
And they better get their finger out with this/these vaccine(s) because I expect that to become the attitude of the vast majority of the British population.
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I think the problem has already started with people doing their xmas shopping as if there were no problem with Covid. Lots of people + enclosed spaces = virus transmission. Quite a few of them will have to cancel xmas!
Families meeting for a few days may make the problem worse.
The shopping stupidity will then continue when the sales start.
Expect a new lockdown from about 4th January!
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Heard a story about a 70-year-old woman taking her 80-year-old neighbour to be vaccinated. The 70-year-old said 'while I'm here'? So they did.
Causing quite a stir in another forum.
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I told my wife that I read something on line from a man who had heard a story about .............
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>> I told my wife that I read something on line from a man who had heard a story about .............
>>
False Covid vaccine claims ‘could hinder immunisation within Muslim communities’
www.surreycomet.co.uk/news/national/18944182.false-covid-vaccine-claims-could-hinder-immunisation-within-muslim-communities/
'Disappearing' needles and other rumours debunked
www.bbc.co.uk/news/55364865
This is a big battle to overcome.
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www.bbc.com/news/stories-55280321
A report from a contact tracer and what people are like when they make contact or not as is often the case.
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Not surprising that there are some like that but disturbing that there are so many.
The same people who believe any old pony they read on FB probably believe nothing from bona fide sources or feel free to disregard it. Perhaps not surprising when the people in charge are demonstrably untrustworthy and, as the tracer says, there is a perception that 'them in charge' do as they please anyway.
What a mess.
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The impression I get speaking to those that work with local test and trace, is the biggest concern is job security if they have to isolate especially if they have to when it's a close contact rather than a positive result.
I also think the article skims too quickly over the fraud angle. I think lots of people are *very* warey of anybody ringing out of the blue asking for any type of personal information. As for checking it on the government website, ah but that's what a scammer would say! Etc.
I'm not sure how you solve it, I know one council uses people from their housing department, at least those in council housing would hopefully be familiar with the dept/people in it.
There are of course people who aren't interested whatever you do, I find it hard to believe its all those 70% that ignore the t&t teams. Can't say I think politicians and their families actions have had much of an impact. But that's just my opinion.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Mon 14 Dec 20 at 12:15
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>> I also think the article skims too quickly over the fraud angle. I think lots
>> of people are *very* warey of anybody ringing out of the blue asking for any
>> type of personal information. As for checking it on the government website, ah but that's
>> what a scammer would say! Etc.
Every time my phone rings, (land line and mobile) if a known name does not pop up I assume it spam or scam, and my subsequent opening hostility rate is DEFCON 2
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Looks like London is moving into tier 3, statement due this afternoon.
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London should never have been in Tier 2 anyway. Cases were rising through Lockdown 2. In Manchester cases were falling before Lockdown 2 but we went into Tier 3 to thumb a nose at our mayor.
Manchester has been in a form of lockdown greater than the rest of England since 1st August. Apart from cold/wet walks in the park we have not seen any friends or family. It about time we had a bit of comfort.
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I found it very hard to believe that central London should be in tier 2 whilst most other major cities were in tier3. Maybe someone has been cooking the books!
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From the BBC...
"During Prime Minister's Questions Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer asked Boris Johnson: "Why does he think that Britain, the sixth richest country in the world, with all our brilliant scientists and amazing NHS end the year with one of the highest numbers of Covid deaths in Europe?""
Slimy political game playing again. Virtue signalling and mud slinging all in one question. a***.
The UK is 9th or 10th in Europe, depending on the source. Hardly "one of the highest in Europe". And since everybody who needed health care got it, are we supposed to believe that Johnson was otherwise responsible for the virus fatality rate?
And in infection rate, which arguably is down to the Government or at least within their power to impact, the UK is about 20th in Europe.
Pity COVID-19 didn't run riot through Westminster and rid us of all these awful people.
We laugh at the US with their choice of leader candidates yet we have Starmer and Johnson. And look at some of the complete buffoons in all parties!
FFS. Shoot me now.
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9th or 10th pro rata excessive death or the absolute number* you mean?
A given that they measured differently in different countries.
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9th or 10th weighting by population. i.e deaths per 100k pop.
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>> The UK is 9th or 10th in Europe, depending on the source. Hardly "one of
>> the highest in Europe". And since everybody who needed health care got it, are we
>> supposed to believe that Johnson was otherwise responsible for the virus fatality rate?
>> And in infection rate, which arguably is down to the Government or at least within
>> their power to impact, the UK is about 20th in Europe.
>> FFS. Shoot me now.
Glad to, your post is of Trumpian levels of spin.
Comparable countries of Europe death rate per population
1/ Belgium
2/ Italy
3/ Spain
4/ UK
5/ France
Infection Rate
1/ Belgium
2/ Switzerland
3/ Spain
4/ Netherlands
5/ France
6/ Spain
7/ France
8/ Austria
9/ Portugal
10/ Italy
11/ Poland
12 Hungary
13 UK
Tis true however that this would have been the case whoever was in power in Whitehall, so "Its all your fault" is futile and unfair.
Unless its trump of course. The good ole USA of A appears at 5 and 2 respectively in the above lists, I'll easily blame him.
Which ever way you look at it, avoid going through Belgium on your way to Germany.
Last edited by: Zero on Wed 16 Dec 20 at 16:58
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I haven't checked recently but last time I looked, Germany had about 30% of our death rate.
Of major countries only Spain and Italy surpass UK and not by much, so I would say we are in the premier league for high deaths.
This means very little until you start to dig. Roughly two thirds of UK CV deaths come from people in care homes and/or people over 80. Britain is usually regarded as having a young population.
Both Spain and Italy have a significantly higher median age than UK. Oddly enough, so does Germany.
I suspect we would have looked a lot better if we hadn't made such a cock of the care home situation early on.
The first lockdown was late, in hindsight. My heart consultant says I almost certainly caught it in January. Lack of testing early on almost certainly meant cases were badly underestimated until they became serious enough to translate into extra hospital cases.
The infection rate is unknown, surely?
P.S.
What is surprising is that we have a higher per capita death rate than the US, given they have 70 million gun toting idiots who probably think shooting the virus is the way ahead and a President who basically did the opposite of what was sensible about half the time.
Last edited by: Manatee on Wed 16 Dec 20 at 18:21
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I've wondered about the US before and came to my own conclusion that it's because we are more densely populated, but I have nothing to back that up.
Last edited by: smokie on Wed 16 Dec 20 at 18:45
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I'm not sure it's so much that, the states in the north of the US have been hit pretty hard and they are some of their least densely populated.
I guess that's mountains of stuff for people to research in the years and decades, there's still a lot I guess for people to learn about cv19.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Wed 16 Dec 20 at 18:54
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>>I haven't checked recently but last time I looked, Germany had about 30% of our death rate.
Just had the Christmas update from my cousin who has lived in Berlin for many years.
She went for a two week holiday and to visit her son in Japan in February this year. She couldn't get home for 6 weeks, with flights being suspended etc.
When she got back she had to quarantine at home, for a couple of weeks I think. She got a phone call every day to check for symptoms and to confirm that she was still at home. I have the impression that it was much more organised or under control there, than it was here at the time
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Surely Trumpian would be subjectively removing countries from Europe until you get the answer you wanted? And given that population is factored in, I'm am not sure how you determine which countries are not comparable.
In the full list by deaths per 100k pop. in Europe the UK is 10th.
The more relevant infections per 100k pop is below.
1 Andorra
2 Luxembourg
3 Montenegro
4 San Marino
5 Czechia
6 Belgium
7 Slovenia
8 Switzerland
9 Croatia
10 Liechtenstein
11 Spain
12 Netherlands
13 Lithuania
14 France
15 Austria
16 North Macedonia
17 Portugal
18 Sweden
19 Vatican City
20 Gibraltar
21 Serbia
22 Moldova
23 Bosnia and Herzegovina
24 Italy
25 Poland
26 Hungary
27 Romania
28 UK
29 Bulgaria
30 Malta
31 Slovakia
32 Ukraine
33 Denmark
34 Russia
35 Albania
36 Belarus
37 Monaco
38 Germany
39 Iceland
40 Ireland
41 Latvia
42 Estonia
43 Channel Islands
44 Greece
45 Faeroe Islands
46 Norway
47 Finland
48 Isle of Man
www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
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If the infection number was right (it isn't, or even comparable) we'd have a terrible case mortality rate.
And I wouldn't include the tiny states.
Last edited by: Manatee on Wed 16 Dec 20 at 19:37
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>> If the infection number was right (it isn't, or even comparable) we'd have a terrible
>> case mortality rate.
>>
My error- I should have said reported case rate or some such, but I suspect that you worked out what I meant anyway.
>> And I wouldn't include the tiny states.
>>
I didn't include anywhere. Or exclude for that matter.
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>> Surely Trumpian would be subjectively removing countries from Europe until you get the answer you
>> wanted? And given that population is factored in, I'm am not sure how you determine
>> which countries are not comparable.
>>
>> In the full list by deaths per 100k pop. in Europe the UK is 10th.
>>
>> The more relevant infections per 100k pop is below.
>>
>> 1 Andorra
......
Now you are really being Trumpian, ignoring the word COMPARABLE
I included countries of similar per capita, facilities and populations above 10 million to provide a MEANINGFUL comparison NOT Rucking ANDORRA SAN MARINO ETC ETC.
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I didn't include anybody, I simply passed on the figures. Take it up with them if it doesn't suit your reality.
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I gave up trying to make meaningful comparisons months ago. Every country records their figures differently and the criteria has been changing.
In Alicante province where my sister lives, deaths weren't recorded as being due to CV unless the deceased had previously tested as positive. In the UK we essentially counted anyone who died after showing symptoms as a covid death. We also recorded differently in Scotland.
Trying to make sense of the figures just made my brain hurt.
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Update from the frontline today. Tier 2 areas. Initially low but sharply rising rates.
Miss Z is home exhausted. Reports a good day with excellent support from seniors. Though apparently none were able to cannulise a patient!
Many very ill patients. Some so bad a team from a major London hospital have come down to undertake some specialist procedures.
When I delivered her lunch, there was a fleet of ambulances and medical equipment marked up with the London hospital's name and logo outside the hospital.
Miss Z reports that they were here to perform ECMO procedures on a number of very ill, and Miss Z states, surprisingly young patients with severe Covid infections.
ECMO: tinyurl.com/y6g3e4ve
The sooner we all get the vaccine the better.
Stay safe.
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Surrey going into tier 3 now as well according to Twitter, along with Portsmouth. Was in Weybridge last night for supper as well!
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Berkshire too. It doesn't really change my life a lot though. The main thing I'm missing is my Sunday evenings in the pub with my two close mates, it feels a bit like we're becoming strangers almost. We tried Zooming but it's a poor substitute.
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>> Surrey going into tier 3 now as well according to Twitter, along with Portsmouth. Was
>> in Weybridge last night for supper as well!
The Guardian reports it as Surrey excluding Waverley, looksas though they're going down to Borough etc level now. Never heard of Waverley. Perhaps its citizens are too well healed to claim Universal Credit; or sufficiently well informed etc to do it without help.
There seems to be a move towards part counties in those moving up too eg Hastings and Rother.
Moving Berks/Bucks/Beds into tier 3 suggests it's advancing in my direction.
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Thu 17 Dec 20 at 12:37
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Waverley is broadly south of Guildford and north of Sussex, so relatively rural compared to much of Surrey. Though not rural in a North Yorkshire kind of way ;)
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I wonder why waverley was left out of tier 3,pretty sure the government said there wouldn't be different rules for inside any county.
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>> I wonder why waverley was left out of tier 3,pretty sure the government said there
>> wouldn't be different rules for inside any county.
My recollection was that they'd said that too. Rationale was to do with mass routine movement between boroughs. I'm not sure that really held water. A lot of people around here move (both ways) between the boroughs of Milton Keynes and South Northants/Northampton. In doing so they also cross a County border.
I think the first such change was when some parts of Essex and Hertfordshire which are almost London suburbs (Watford for example) moved to Tier 3 along with the entire GLA area.
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Thu 17 Dec 20 at 12:45
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Nobody moves outside Norfolk. It’s a foreign country the other side of the Waveney. There be dragons!
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Bit like corn wall then - I haven't crossed the Tamar for years, even though we now live just 1 mile ovvit.
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Parts of Herts are in Tier 3 already, we (west Herts) are still in Tier 2. But the rest of Herts including us goes into Tier 3 from Saturday.
Compliance with the latest 'lockdown' has been very poor from what I've seen. The latest weekly infection figures here are 30% up on the prior week. I had to go to Leighton Buzzard, just over the border, on Tuesday around 11 am. and the traffic was as bad as I've ever seen it. On Monday night we did a socially distanced Santa Claus tour in lieu of our usual carols round the tree, and people gathered together regardless.
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I'm in a Tier 2 area, about to go into Tier 3.
As usual, yesterday at 9 am I'm in a supermarket car park (OK, it's Waitrose), which is right next to a primary school.
Groups of parents chatting, their faces about half a metre apart, no masks.
Given that this is a reasonably well-off and presumably well-educated area, you have to wonder what, if anything, is going through their minds.
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>>
>>
>> Groups of parents chatting, their faces about half a metre apart, no masks.
>>
>> Given that this is a reasonably well-off and presumably well-educated area, you have to wonder
>> what, if anything, is going through their minds.
>>
And no doubt when they take it home and granny catches it and dies they'll be blaming the government.
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Looking at our figures locally, there's been 75% increase in the past week. The bulk seems to be in the 10-19 age range, that seems to be backed up by falling patients numbers with cv19 in hospital over the past 4 weeks.
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>> Looking at our figures locally, there's been 75% increase in the past week. The bulk
>> seems to be in the 10-19 age range, that seems to be backed up by
>> falling patients numbers with cv19 in hospital over the past 4 weeks.
And more testing?
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Yes, numbers tested up around 50% over the same period.
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The very broad intent of the Tier system is to avoid (a) overwhelming local hospitals, and (b) allow so far as is possible normal activities to continue.
Impicit in this is that some fatalities from covid are acceptable (albeit undesirable!). If zero covid fatalities were the goal we would need a total lockdown - unworkable in my view.
This makes a very good rational for dividing the country up on the basis of areas served by different major hospitals or health trusts. The use of county boundaries, local authorities etc is sub-optimal and confusing.
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How many people know the name of thier Local Health Trust and the boundaries of the area it serves? Most peoplel however know their local authority and the mae of the county in which they live.
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>> How many people know the name of thier Local Health Trust and the boundaries of
>> the area it serves? Most peoplel however know their local authority and the mae of
>> the county in which they live.
That. Exactly.
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Yep I'd agree with that CGN. And I think they aren't necessarily using your "local" hospital for COVID in some areas, to try to segregate a little.
I doubt they were the first but Portugal were doing different rules by municipality when I was there back in Oct. We do seem to be a little behind others. (Though today I see Sweden are being criticised for their somewhat lenient-looking approach as ti hasn't worked, and the other day S Korea was reporting as jump in cases where people have said that they were better than us because throe population was more submissive.
Having now looked it up :-) ,I'm going to stick with my speculation from weeks ago that the virus has got more virulent, by which I mean it's more aggressive and faster spreading than it was. I feel I read something the other day about a new mutation which may be the cause.
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>> Surrey going into tier 3 now as well according to Twitter, along with Portsmouth. Was
>> in Weybridge last night for supper as well!
Well thank s a bundle, you come over here, infect us and leave us in Tier three.
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>> Well thank s a bundle, you come over here, infect us and leave us in
>> Tier three.
We’re still in tier 2, so I hope I haven’t brought it back ;)
Though, the restaurants did seem much busier in Weybridge on a Wednesday night than Chichester was on Tuesday! That was like a ghost town...quite sad to see as pre covid it was also a busy town in the evening.
Last edited by: VxFan on Fri 18 Dec 20 at 11:10
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>> Though, the restaurants did seem much busier in Weybridge on a Wednesday night than Chichester
>> was on Tuesday!
We knew it was coming, so its been a case of make hay etc etc round here.
(Yes Yes I know it only makes the inevitable more inevitable but its all psychological)
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We stay in Tier 2. Off to the pub tomorrow for a slightly belated birthday celebration. Hopefully, given we've booked a table, we can get a drink while we study the menu i.e. before we actually order the substantial meal.
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I’ve eaten out a few times a week every week since the ‘substantial meal’ rule was introduced, and at at all the pubs / restaurants / chains I’ve eaten at it’s just been like a normal meal out, bar the visors / mask / screens. No masks worn at tables, menus (single use) handed out and drinks order(s) taken. Then food and drink as normal. Make sure you order that extra bottle of wine before the plates are cleared...you’re allowed to finish your drinks even if the food is finished ;)
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So Christmas mixing is, at least in England, restricted to 25 December only.
What happens politically and practically in the next week is going to be err interesting.
Is mass disobedience likely?
Road blocks on the motorways?
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Will be like Brexit then. Be able to blame the masses.
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>>Is mass disobedience likely?
I shouldn't think there'll be any large scale revolution, simply that there will be large scale apathy and dgaf.
They've overcooked it, I think. As with parenthood, there are two ways of losing authority - no control or excessive control.
I thought that for the first few months they did fairly well in dealing with such an unknown and dramatic situation and I am untroubled by the fact that the Daily Mail and its lemming disagree with me.
But ever since they've felt secure enough to have opinions then it has been the same ole same ole political claptrap and games.
Johnson wants to be a Churchill type. Churchill offered leadership, albeit in the absence of much else.
Johnson appears to have taken it one step further and offers neither leadership nor anything else. And the clowns on the other side of the House don't help since they are revelling in the same games.
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We are to be in tier 4. Mass disobedience guaranteed I should think. Daughter currently cancelling massive turkey and probably about another £100 worth of food order. We will need to buy for the 2/3 days we would have spent with her and the grandchildren, supermarket shelves will probably be cleared - apart from all the big turkeys etc.
Utter chaos - I can't say I expected it only because I didn't think Johnson would have the nerve, but it was always a bad idea to have a free-for-all for 5 days. To allow Christmas Day/Boxing Day would have been better for all sorts of reasons.
The damage to non-essential businesses keyed up for 5 days of peak trading will be severe.
Last edited by: Manatee on Sat 19 Dec 20 at 18:19
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This whole thing is depressing isn't it?
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We're going to do some food shopping tonight as we will have to cater for ourselves and I expect we will be hosting our son under his one-person-household bubbling rights.
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>> This whole thing is depressing isn't it?
>>
It sure is sooty. That nice Mr O’Leary hasn’t had the decency to cancel my flight back to the Covid ridden U.K. tomorrow.
So quarantine, and then no pubs open. At least I can fill my Boots with Duty free gin tomorrow.
Christmas Dinner will be poured, although I’ve got some Toulouse sossidges in my freezer and the neighbours may throw some crusts my way.
Only 4 hours ago I was sat, post walk, outside the Bar Bonaire at Benigembla in the late afternoon sun rehydrating. Free tapas as well !
Tch.
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Sounds like a plan. Did you get travel from the airport sorted?
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>> We are to be in tier 4. Mass disobedience guaranteed I should think.
>>
I wouldn't think so myself. From talking to customers in the shop people are genuinely getting scared of the surge in cases, many being of the opinion that Christmas should be a low key one household affair this year.
Of course this is in a little corner of Wales, what they feeling in the big cities I have no idea.
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Seems the new wave is because of the mutated strain, easier transmission and higher rate of hospital admission from those infected. Strange the mutation is in the south of England/London/
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>> Seems the new wave is because of the mutated strain, easier transmission and higher rate
>> of hospital admission from those infected. Strange the mutation is in the south of England/London/
It can only start from a point and spread. Origin not necessarily UK but the the most popular points of entry are all in the SE.
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Does this need a new vote in parliament?
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>> Does this need a new vote in parliament?
>>
No, as it's not a national lockdown. Each of the four regions have acted independently.
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>> No, as it's not a national lockdown. Each of the four regions have acted independently.
It's intended to have legal force so will require legislation. Not a full blown act, just a Statutory Instrument. We're now told there will be vote but not until January.....
The reality must be that the 'new variant' was already known to government well before yesterday. If the PM read his briefs and had any grasp of detail he would have been aware of the issue before he tried to tear Starmer a new one for suggesting at PMQ's on Wednesday that the five day relaxation was, perhaps, a misjudgement.
The more honourable members of the Tory party are saying that openly and suggesting Boris deliberately delayed an announcement of restrictions until parliament was in recess and couldn't argue.
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>> >> We are to be in tier 4. Mass disobedience guaranteed I should think.
>> >>
>>
>> I wouldn't think so myself.
I hope you're right.
I'm not scared of the virus but I can't dispute the wisdom of mitigating the effects on healthcare for those who need it.
We can't even deliver presents for the grandchildren unless we do it tonight. Probably best just to defer Christmas.
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It seems to me, the restrictions aren't as bad as those in March.
We cancelled Christmas ages ago. Got a turkey crown in the freezer. Was intending to swap pressies with Surrey daughter at South Mimms services. That's now gone. Reckon we'll have to wait until Easter.
On the plus side, had a lovely game casserole tonight.
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We made a snap decision at 3 pm to drive up the M40 to meet our daughter who lives in Birmingham at Warwick services, to swap presents but hopefully nothing more! She was due to be coming here after her Christmas Day shift for a few evenings.
We're revisiting tomorrow's Tesco delivery list in a minute. Off the top of our head we thought we could probably delete one parsnip (though I do like a nice roast parsnip!!) :-)
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All the experts point out that lockdowns are an emergency measure which has to be applied after less damaging solutions have failed to control the virus. Unless you can tolerate very long and severe lockdowns their aim is merely to buy time to fix the less damaging solutions (and keep our hospitals from collapsing). Ceasing or reducing a lockdown inevitably sends the numbers back up if the shortcomings have still not been fixed - as we have seen several times.
Our failed solution is test, track and isolate which numerous countries have used much more effectively. Lockdown will eventually fail again because Boris refuses to acknowledge its shortcomings. Whether or not it is the real cause, he has now latched on to "new strain" as his excuse to U-turn (again) and ignore the underlying problem (again).
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Go on then, tell me which country has its numbers falling as a result of track and trace.
Then go on to tell us how the UK can improve it's track and trace when many of the general public swear at them when called, or give false phone numbers (I think that came up here, it was certainly from a source I'd trust more than the Mail - though that doesn't rule out much!!)
I personally think this new strain has absolutely put the willies up those in the know as they've been briefed that this mutation is potentially far worse than the first and they know what an impossible task it will be to persuade the public to take appropriate precautions because they've "lost confidence" in the government and they will choose to try to score cheap "political" points, sniping at the government and saying how badly they've done, rather than take the whole thing seriously.
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From the Granuad....
>i>"“If the new variant was going to have a big impact on disease severity, we would have seen that by now,” said Ewan Birney, deputy director general of the European Molecular Biology Laboratory and joint director of its European Bioinformatics Institute in Cambridge.
“Hospital cases as a proportion of numbers of infections would have either rocketed or dropped dramatically. Neither has happened, so we can conclude that the impact on numbers of severe cases is likely to be modest: slightly more or slightly fewer.”
In addition, Birney said the vaccines have been tested with many variants of the virus circulating. “So there is every reason to think that the vaccines will still work against this new strain, though obviously that needs to be tested thoroughly.”
Exactly where the variant first appeared is not known. It may simply be that Britain’s extremely robust virus surveillance system spotted it before other nations did. “However, it is just as likely that the mutations that created this variant occurred in the UK and that is why we have seen it first,” added Birney."
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It was whoppingly obvious a 5-day Xmas would be a disaster a fortnight ago.
Suspect the new strain is taking the blame to allow a U-turn
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Even the much corona virus admired Germany has been caught with its pants down, cases have shot through the roof in the last 10 days, and its death rate is matching ours.
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Also from the Grauniad....today, 13:47
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/19/new-coronavirus-strain-in-south-east-england-prompts-fears-of-third-lockdown
[Presumably the same] Dr Ewan Birney, the deputy director general of the European Molecular Biological Laboratory, said while viruses mutated regularly, the recent strain was alarming scientists.
“When there’s growth [of a virus], there’s always some strains growing and some shrinking. What’s concerned scientists this time around is that there’s been one quite different strain. It has quite a few more, different mutations, and it’s been growing very strongly in the south-east of England,” he told the BBC’s Today programme on Saturday.
"While it is difficult to say whether the new strain is responsible for an increase in coronavirus transmission in the region, Birney said “the evidence is pointing in that direction”, adding that “most scientists on the transmissibility of this new strain think it’s going faster”.
"However, the virus may become less virulent as it mutates, meaning it can “transmit faster but cause less disease”, he said.
Last edited by: smokie on Sat 19 Dec 20 at 22:32
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I don't know about the Guardian, but the local hospital is overwhelmed already.
T4 Here.
Miss Z is on duty until Christmas Eve. Hospital has cancelled all elective surgery. Staff have been told that rotas may need to change at short notice to cover sickness. They are considering a 3 day (36 hour on) 2 day off rota.
MIL is in our bubble.
I'm thinking of putting a putting up the spare bed so she can live here for the next week or so if she wants cause I don't think it will help here health being alone over Xmas and the new year.
Last edited by: zippy on Sun 20 Dec 20 at 00:36
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>> I don't know about the Guardian, but the local hospital is overwhelmed already.
My sister has a reasonably senior NHS management role in the Midlands and says it's the same there. Leicester and Northampton, as just two examples, are pushing the envelope for ICU capacity. The uptick in rates suggests 'new variant' covid has already jumped well outside London and the SE.
My own thought is that if, as predicted, limiting Xmas mixing to 25th only leads to carnage on the roads some places may really struggle.
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This seems fair and has many important points. Worth reading carefully.
www.bbc.com/news/health-55312505
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>> Go on then, tell me which country has its numbers falling as a result of
>> track and trace.
>>
There are numerous published comparisons of the approaches used by different countries such as this recent one www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03518-4
and an older one here www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/18/covid-test-and-trace-uk-compare-other-countries-south-korea-germany
It is vital to spot outbreaks while they are relatively contained and rapidly apply effective local isolation to prevent them growing. From memory this has often been mentioned for China and S Korea. Once outbreaks become large no track and trace system will work because it is overwhelmed. That is when a wider and severe lockdown is needed to bring numbers down to a level where the system can cope again.
We had that window for several months this summer but did little to make use of the opportunity. Our national system seems to lack the capability of successful locally-based schemes to rigorously enforce isolation after identifying cases and their contacts. To put it crudely, somebody knocking on your door and laying down the law. Also of course providing adequate support for those told to isolate.
Last edited by: misar on Sun 20 Dec 20 at 08:10
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We had that window for several months this summer but did little to make use
>> of the opportunity. Our national system seems to lack the capability of successful locally-based schemes
>> to rigorously enforce isolation after identifying cases and their contacts. To put it crudely, somebody
>> knocking on your door and laying down the law. Also of course providing adequate support
>> for those told to isolate.
>>
I'm not sure you understood smokies post, have a read of this
www.bbc.com/news/stories-55280321
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Track and Trace will ever only work with an over authoritative government, compliant population and/or relatively small numbers of carriers. The Population needs to be relatively static as well, IE not gallivanting round Europe the moment restrictions ease.
So no-one managed it except in certain countries that fit the criteria.
Last edited by: Zero on Sun 20 Dec 20 at 09:06
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It is sobering to think that until we get a vaccine our only method of controlling the disease is the same as in medieval times i.e don’t allow the infected to leave their homes, and I seem to recall that the Black Death didn’t work out so good.
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>>the Black Death didn't work out so good
Um, the serfs could demand better wages because there was less ovvem.
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>> >>the Black Death didn't work out so good
>>
>> Um, the serfs could demand better wages because there was less ovvem.
>>
Can we expect a new Statute of Labourers post Covid
“Against the malice of servants who were idle and unwilling to serve after the pestilence without taking outrageous wages it was recently ordained by our lord the king, with the assent of the prelates, nobles and others of his council, that such servants, both men and women, should be obliged to serve in return for the salaries and wages which were customary”
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"Against the malice of servants who were idle and unwilling to serve after the pestilence without taking outrageous wages it was recently ordained by our lord the king, with the assent of the prelates, nobles and others of his council, that such servants, both men and women, should be obliged to serve in return for the salaries and wages which were customary"
Keep them in their place [a rich man in his castle etc.]
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>> I'm not sure you understood smokies post, have a read of this
>> www.bbc.com/news/stories-55280321
>>
That article seems to confirm one of the problems with our system.
As I said before, to put it crudely, somebody knocking on your door and laying down the law is an effective way to encourage people to isolate whether or not we want to adopt it. Or enforce it rigorously as the Chinese do.
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No, the main problem is that details aren't passed on. How do you know which door to knock on?
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>> No, the main problem is that details aren't passed on. How do you know which
>> door to knock on?
>>
You visit anyone who has tested positive and demand their contacts, with the threat of criminal action if necessary, and so on with those contacts. Some countries combine that with allowing agencies full access to electronic records of credit card, mobile phone, bank account, etc usage.
I'm not saying people welcome such measures, just that we are in a crisis with deaths and economic costs similar to wartime when the population have accepted far worse as necessary evils.
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> You visit anyone who has tested positive and demand their contacts, with the threat of
> criminal action if necessary, and so on with those contacts. Some countries combine that with
> allowing agencies full access to electronic records of credit card, mobile phone, bank account, >etc usage.
Yeah right! Good luck with that.
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> You visit anyone who has tested positive and demand their contacts, with the threat of
>> criminal action if necessary, and so on with those contacts.
Yes wonderful. Meanwhile in the real world.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Sun 20 Dec 20 at 12:17
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>>You visit anyone who has tested positive and demand their contacts, with the threat of criminal action if necessary,
You dipstick. Which criminal action would you be threatening them with? Refusal to tell you who they spent time with recently? Not only is that not a crime, how on earth would you go about making it a crime?
Even if you have a duty, your duty would be to the person that you had contact with, not the State.
>>Some countries combine that with allowing agencies full access to electronic records of credit card, mobile phone, bank account, etc usage.
Can you cite an example of where a State allows its agencies full access to credit card, mobile phone and bank account etc.?
>>we are in a crisis with deaths and economic costs similar to wartime
Is there anything in the real world that you actually do know about?
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Misar the first article is really a discussion of the theory of contact tracing, which is sound, and a discussion of why it failed in different countries. I can't see anywhere where it says its ever been wildly successful, with the exception maybe of Vietnam.
I think the fact is that governments around the world have taken differing approaches yet still nearly every country has a worsening problem, so either each country has some good and some bad points, or this is bordering on the edge of uncontrollable, which I'm tending to think is not so far away in the UK without improved "buy-in" from the general public - and to me that feels like it's heading in the opposite direction.
I hope the vaccines are not impaired by the mutations.
I also hope the governments look harder at therapeutic drugs than they have been, so that the effect and duration of infection is reduced. Look at, for instance, www.synairgen.com/covid-19/ (which I think is about to enter an abbreviated Phase 3 test in the US) and www.tizianalifesciences.com/our-focus/covid-19
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Incompetence - smokie