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And so it begins.
Will Trump achieve a second term? Damn I hope not, but he might.
If one looks at the promises he made last time, he´s been true to most of them. And the ones he hasn't (Obama Care and a Full Wall) he can point pretty clearly at the Democrats for stopping them.
It wasn't his doing, but the US economy was doing pretty well until COVID-19 brought it down, but half the US electorate don't seem to believe in COVID anyway.
What has changed that would move voters away from him? Not much that I can see. The issues haven't changed, his position hasn't changed.
Last time his opponent was awful. Well that doesn't seem to have changed much.
Will Trump voters see that he comes across as a buffoon with his ridiculous statements and his behaviour on Twitter? I doubt it.
I don't think Trump will get less voters, the Democrats have to focus on getting more.
I hope we don't get him again, but we might.
Last edited by: VxFan on Tue 5 Jan 21 at 10:21
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From what I've seen DT is behind in the majority of the swing states by a fair bit. There he seems to be struggling, although it's difficult to say how accurate the polling is.
Reading on a couple of other forums that has a few Americans give a different impression, plenty in the mid West are worried about how the Dem party have hitches their wagon to the BLM which associates with more violent groups. Trump might well come through as a law and order candidate if enough people start worrying about the riots.
How much that is representative of wider Americans I don't know, but there is a lot of time before the election for things to change.
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It is difficult for Brits to properly understand a US culture - hence "two nations separated by a common language" which is attributed to George Bernard Shaw.
Healthcare, right to bear arms, social security (universal credit etc) are all issues which we view differently. The Tory right wing gets close to the US, but UK politics centres around what could be described as moderate democrat.
I find Trump a reprehensible character - a bully, narcissistic, lying, fundamentally ill informed and ignorant. He is inarticulate as soon as he goes off script, and surrounds himself only with sycophants (he fires the rest).
But he does know how to tell a part of the electorate what they want to hear. He also has the benefit of a weak opposition - another virtual geriatric rather than someone with energy, drive ambition and imagination.
So there is, sadly, a real chance that he will be re-elected.
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>>It is difficult for Brits to properly understand a US culture
Indeed.
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jul/13/donald-trump-20000-false-or-misleading-claims
( The Washington Post is behind a pay wall
Many more stats
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veracity_of_statements_by_Donald_Trump
The response from his supporters seems to be " Oh thats just Donald !"
Will others vote him out ?
>>So there is, sadly, a real chance that he will be re-elected.
That is the worrying bit.
Meanwhile time for him to get back to the golf.
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I like to tune into US news. From Very Very pro Trump Fox News, to Anti Trump CNN via the others in between.
NBC news summed it up perfectly
On election eve, this country is just unbelievably stressed out
One psychologist referred to what he's seeing as a pervasive "sense of dread and isolation." "Election Stress Disorder"
Trump has explosively exposed and exploited the cracks in American Society for his own ends.
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" ...62% of adults in the United States get news from social media.,[6] as well as three-fourths who say they get news from e-mail or social media sites updates, according to a report published by CNN. The survey suggests that Facebook and Twitter make news a more participatory experience than before as people share news articles and comment on other people's posts. According to CNN, in 2010 75% of people got their news forwarded through e-mail or social media posts, whereas 37% of people shared a news item via Facebook or Twitter."
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_media_as_a_news_source
And there's your problem. The thickos actually prefer the propaganda channels where campaign funds are increasingly used to make false claims and smear the opposition. There seems little doubt that malign state actors are also swamping social media with material designed to undermine democratic societies. It's not nuclear weapons we need to defend ourselves against any more.
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/oct/14/russia-us-politics-social-media-facebook
I doubt whether western governments are doing nearly enough about this. They can't measure it, they don't understand it, so they can't deal with it.
FB, twitter etc. are the favourite conduit for conspiracy theories, fake news, manipulation of all kinds. Yet many perceive them to be more trustworthy than traditional mainstream journalism.
The more fantastic the theories, the more the lumpen masses lap them up. What I might see as proof of Trump's near-insanity, only confirms to them that he is right with his outlandish claims and theories that they find far more appealing than serious commentary in the Washington Post or the NY Times.
There's every chance he could be re-elected.
And are we in the UK really much better off? It's hard to see how the brainwashing can be stopped. The structures beneath the politicians that should be running the country are being dismantled when we need them the most. It really does feel like the start of a new Dark Age.
But maybe there's hope. Johnson looks finished, by Brexit, by COVID-19, by his own illness, by corruption, by cronyism and by sheer incompetence. Given we can't shift them for five years, is there someone in the Conservative party with the support and the courage to get us back on track?
It would certainly help if Trump gets chucked out. Why oh why couldn't the Democrats have come up with a better candidate?
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>>
>> Why oh why couldn't the Democrats
>> have come up with a better candidate?
Money. To just get the party nomination requires an enormous amount of funding, and then you have to convince conference you have even more dosh to fight the election.
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I feel sorry for the American electorate. The last time they had a choice between Trump or Clinton, this time they've a choice between a couple of septuagenarians, either of which could die in office.
This country has not much better choice. There doesn't seem to be anyone suitable for the job prepared to take it on.
Perhaps it's time for a coup?
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>> I feel sorry for the American electorate.
Sod the yanks, what about us? Jelly Corbyn or Buffoon Johnson.
And you know the real tragedy? if you don't vote for either, one of them will get in.
Last edited by: Zero on Fri 28 Aug 20 at 14:30
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The day has finally arrived, what's everyone's predictions for the result?
I think Trump will win but the Democrats will secure both Houses and it'll turn into a log jam for the next 4 years.
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>> I think Trump will win
Will he win by fair means or by foul?
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They'll be legal cases brought however wins.
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The Florida result will be an early straw. I'll wait for that before predicting.
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Go on be brave stick your neck out ;-)
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Biden by a handsome amount
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I’ll go with Biden. My fervent wish is to see Trump out on his ear and an effective vaccine announced by the end of the year. The first leg of the double will be a good start deserving of a celebration.
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I think the Donald will win, as he did last time.
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I see someone's placed a £5million bet that the chump will win.
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I hope he does win. I can go back to calling Americans the dumbest people on earth (I lost the right to do that when we voted Bojo in, hopefully we wont be double dumb)
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>> (I lost the right to do that when we voted Bojo in, hopefully
>> we wont be double dumb)
>>
To be fair, what choice was there?
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One long serving Democrat said
"The Democrats will unpack the Supreme Court"
i.e. Trump packed it so we will re adjust the balance.
That should re kindle Trump.
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I'm going for a Biden win. Let's hope it's decisive too.
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Last time it was near as dammit 50:50
I don't see much has changed.
Trump is saying the same things and behaving the same way. If anything he may have reinforced his support because as a President he behaved exactly as he said he was going to.
Biden & Clinton? Well, I guess their home address is different, but not much else. Uninspiring with dodgy bits would describe either of them.
So, I think it's going to be damned close again and result in a week long acrimonious soap opera before Biden narrowly sneaks it.
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A few weeks ago I thought Biden's lead was convincingly wide and in most of the Swing States it still seems to be - Trump leads in Ohio by 2% and in Iowa by a weak 0.4%, but Biden leads solidly in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, though less so in Florida, N. Carolina and Arizona.
I can't decide whether the media's perception that Trump is putting in a strong finish is anything more than the sound and fury from the Republican circus.
I agree Biden is an unattractive candidate, though Harris far less so.
Trump has indeed behaved as he promised and that, incredibly, still seems to appeal to a large proportion of the US. However, he has failed to deliver on some of his promises (e.g. The Wall), has presided over a slowing in economic growth (even before the pandemic) and has very obviously failed to provide any leadership in the pandemic. He has also contributed to the fragmentation of US society and has never reached out to the majority of Americans who voted for someone else last time.
But for his fervent supporters, none of it seems to matter. There is almost some bizarre personality cult at work, where normal perception of truth and fact are suspended.
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>>But for his fervent supporters, none of it seems to matter.
Agreed, and it is quite remarkable.
I suspect that considerable civil unrest could result from this election. God only knows how a messy result, or a disruptive loser, could magnify that.
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Speaking to some colleagues in our reciprocal office in the US, it’s going in favour of the Donald.
When asked they say because they think he thinks along the same lines as they do. This is American is great, they don’t like foreigners or different races and don’t like paying taxes.
It’s bizarre!
Last edited by: zippy on Tue 3 Nov 20 at 15:57
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I've said before, Trumps appeal is not that he promises to do much, it is that he vocally hates the same stuff they do; Washington, Establishment, Media, Communists, Foreigners.
So they think he's on their side, even if he is not particularly effective.
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I suspect there is a limp of people who would vote for him just because he has upset the establishment. It happens in other votes too these days...
Speaking of which, SWMBO was reading some posts to me from some"followers" of Strictly, on Facebook. They are more rabid and unbalanced than any voters (though I guess they will be voters too). They absolutely live for the programme... I don't get that either!
Last edited by: smokie on Tue 3 Nov 20 at 16:34
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Clever how he has managed to convince his base that he is "one of them" depite the fact that he is in fact a rich New Yorker, born to wealth and privilege and I rather suspect actually despises his followers. He certainly has nothing in common with them. An odious man but certainly a clever and cynical one
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>> Clever how he has managed to convince his base that he is "one of them"
>> depite the fact that he is in fact a rich New Yorker, born to wealth
>> and privilege and I rather suspect actually despises his followers. He certainly has nothing in
>> common with them. An odious man but certainly a clever and cynical one
>>
I think it's a bit more subtle than that, he stands for something that appeals that is he's dead set against pretty much everything the Democrats are for. Its not so much that he's one of them, although they'll be a fair few who believe that, it's more he can keep the status quo which they want to keep.
Many think the other side have tilted too far to the left, they aren't remotely interested in public sector health care, gun restrictions, many think the riots in the summer are more of the sort of thing to come should the other side get in.
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Gun restrictions make as much sense as prohibition or the war on drugs. Using the law to try to stop people doing something they really want to do only generates criminal activity.
The US problem with guns is not their law, it is that as a society they fundamentally want to own guns. Much as a junkie fundamentally wants to use drugs, an alcoholic alcohol and a gambler betting.
It won't get fixed by the law. It can't be.
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>> It won't get fixed by the law. It can't be.
It wont get fixed by any mean, law or hearts and minds. They see it as their cowboy heritage*, a constitutional right.
*Even tho "the wild west" and the cowboy is a very small and short part of American history and development.
Last edited by: Zero on Tue 3 Nov 20 at 17:03
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"... he vocally hates the same stuff they do; Washington, Establishment, Media, Communists, Foreigners."
Add one more important thing to that list. He hates everyone who he perceives as being against him.
Apart from the bile he has spewed in the direction of the Democrats (the party generally, state governors, former presidents etc.) look at the list of those who he dispensed with because he considered they did not put loyalty above everything else (including the truth).
Fauci is next for the chop, apparently.
In the land of the free where anyone could succeed if they tried hard enough it is astonishing that such negativity should take hold. I mean, what is the future they look forward to? Just more hatred, more negativity? Where is the promised land?
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>>In the land of the free where anyone could succeed if they tried hard enough it is astonishing that such negativity should take hold
Not if you think about it.
If it is the land of the free, if you can succeed if you try hard enough, who do you blame if you fail?
The negativity comes from all those who have failed and want someone to blame rather than admitting that their failure is entirely of their own making.
The need for a scapegoat to avoid personal culpability drives a remarkable amount of social negativity and protest.
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"The need for a scapegoat to avoid personal culpability"
That's certainly true of Trump himself. The reason he hasn't build The Wall is because the nasty Democrats denied him the funding. If he's caught in a lie, it was because the media reported him falsely. If he loses the election, it will be because of cheating by the other side.
"No politician in history...has been treated worse or more unfairly," he said in 2017.
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Right.
And unfortunately that cry resonates with the fairly rubbish and frustrated who also feel that it's not their fault and that the nasty Liberals / Foreigners / Communists / Media / Washington have denied them their rightful rewards.
It's a broken country. My only concern is how far we may follow it down the same road. It's a road the likes of Farage want to take us down.
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>> "... he vocally hates the same stuff they do; Washington, Establishment, Media,
Because he cant control it it and they have rejected him, even before the election bid.
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>>Speaking to some colleagues in our reciprocal office in the US, it's going in favour of the Donald.<<<
They are his supporters - they would say that wouldn't they!
To quote from JL up-post
"But for his fervent supporters, none of it seems to matter. There is almost some bizarre personality cult at work, where normal perception of truth and fact are suspended."
My money is on a Democrat win on paper - followed by a legal challenge. Where will it all end? Gun sales are at an all time high I believe.
uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-guns-insight/u-s-gun-sales-soar-amid-pandemic-social-unrest-election-fears-idUKKBN2701GB
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>> I suspect that considerable civil unrest could result from this election. God only knows how
>> a messy result, or a disruptive loser, could magnify that.
I share that suspicion.
There are various pro-Trump militias already on the ground; the harassment of the Biden bus in Texas is but one example.
I've also heard before the argument that the second amendment is as much about internal as external threats to the security of a free state.
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>>Biden & Clinton? Well, I guess their home address is different, but not much else. Uninspiring with dodgy bits would describe either of them
Biden and Clinton are dodgy on a normal scale of dodginess. Trump is on a scale of his own.
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>> So, I think it's going to be damned close again and result in a week
>> long acrimonious soap opera before Biden narrowly sneaks it.
That's what I said, though it seems that "narrowly sneaks it" is going to turn out to be a lot more torturous, litigious and acrimonious than I envisaged.
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I was reading an article that said many people send in a postal vote and then go and vote in person, so cross checks to rule out duplicate votes must be made.
A question, do we have that issue in the UK? Can I register for a postal vote and then change my mind and vote in person at the last minute?
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AIUI, if you've registered for a postal vote, you can't vote in the normal fashion at a polling station.
OTOH, if you "miss the post" for the defined postal deadline, you can actually hand your postal vote in at a your normal polling station up to close of poll.
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>> AIUI, if you've registered for a postal vote, you can't vote in the normal fashion at a polling station.
>>
IIRC from the days I used to do the job, one of the flags on the electoral roll we were issued with at the polling station indicated a postal vote.
>> OTOH, if you "miss the post" for the defined postal deadline, you can actually hand
>> your postal vote in at a your normal polling station up to close of poll.
Yes that is correct.
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Anybody know when we start to see early results, exit polls, etc, etc?
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First polls shut 23.00, get a better idea around 4-5.00am.
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>> Anybody know when we start to see early results, exit polls, etc, etc?
The Guardian has a timeline:
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/02/us-election-2020-presidential-what-time-results-guide?
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0:08 GMT
Trump 11
Biden 0
So far Indiana 33% Biden 64% Trump at 8% counted.
May be an interesting night!
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1am and 36 votes difference between them in Florida with 81% of votes counted.
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05:11 GMT
Biden 223
Trump 145
270 required to win
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The BBC are saying 220 biden 213 trump.
Trump has won several states, texas and florida being the main two, by a pretty comfortable majority, certainly bigger majorities than what the polls thought.
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>> The BBC are saying 220 biden 213 trump.
>>
>> Trump has won several states, texas and florida being the main two, by a pretty
>> comfortable majority, certainly bigger majorities than what the polls thought.
>>
Second time the pollsters have got it wrong. They need to review their methodology.
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They appear to have got 5 out of 6 important states correct, however by how many they were a fair bit out.
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SWMBO just read something out which said that one theory for the polls being inaccurate is that people don't want to admit to voting for Trump.
Could be true I suppose.
Last edited by: smokie on Wed 4 Nov 20 at 10:20
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The way things are going is very concerning.
Biden may well win, but even if he does, the likely closeness of the result and size of Trump's support mean that the probability of unrest after the election must now be a major concern.
The one thing that might have stopped that would have been a crushing defeat for Trump. The fact that this won't happen shows a lot of Americans have something seriously wrong with their thinking.
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According to the Guardian (as culled by MS News) Trump has already claimed victory.
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>> According to the Guardian (as culled by MS News) Trump has already claimed victory.
He has. Live speech at around 07:00 our time.
It's completely false; college votes so far are Biden 238 Trump 213 with approx 70 seats undeclared.
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Wed 4 Nov 20 at 11:01
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>> SWMBO just read something out which said that one theory for the polls being inaccurate
>> is that people don't want to admit to voting for Trump.
>>
>> Could be true I suppose.
>>
Shy trump voters I think the term is, in the US anyway. Or the poll companies are not getting it right.
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It does, though undoubtedly it probably shouldn't, still occur to me that in a country so populated and successful as the USA, as deeply surprising and concerning, that the best candidates they can come up with for about the most important job in the world, are Trump and Biden.
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224:213
So, a nightmare for the US.
Trump already complaining about fraud and threatening the Supreme Court, the Election isn't going to be a clear win for either, and the arguments have started.
Riots, court cases, and vitriolic statements to the media would appear to be the order of the day.
Whoever does finally win, I think the US is in for a pretty crap 4 years.
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As an aside, Trump's fund raising target for his 2020 Election campaign was $1bn.
Typically the Party National Committee and the Political Action Committee will contributes about half as much again to that candidate.
That's aside from anything the State pays for (admin, conferences, logistics).
That's a lot of money. And statistically the candidate who spends the most money wins. The one time that was not true was last time when Clinton spent more than Trump but lost.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Wed 4 Nov 20 at 12:10
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I may be wrong, but I think Bidens pot was bigger, spent less on mass rallies, and more on advertising.
This is of course on top of the equally huge bribes budget
for the primaries and the candidacy.
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Who do we - the British - want to win?
Biden seems much more sensible, rational and balanced. He is of Irish descent, he will support Ireland, which means to a greater or lesser degree not favour Britain.
Trump is a crass, vulgar, irrational man who is of Scottish descent(?), I think that when it comes to it he is more likely to favour Britain than Trump will.
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>> Trump is a crass, vulgar, irrational man who is of Scottish descent(?), I think that
>> when it comes to it he is more likely to favour Britain than Trump will.
He wont only when it suits him
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>>Who do we - the British - want to win?
Neither will particularly favour the UK unless there is some advantage in it for them.
Direct harm is also very unlikely from either of them, though there is always a higher chance of Trump taking umbrage, sulking and doing something petulant.
I think there's little doubt that Trump will screw up the US more than Biden. I don't think it is particularly clear that Biden will bring positive, more a lack of negative.
Some of the things that Trump has done Biden will politically need to be seen to undo, even if he doesn't particularly want to. There are definitely areas where it will suit Biden to be able to shrug his shoulders and say "nothing I can do, the Senate won't let me".
Other than the fact that Trump is in power, the Republicans don't particularly like him and much of the stuff he's done either. So it will equally suit them, on some issues, to say "not our fault, the [new] President made us revoke it".
Inactivity is as likely to come from each shoving it on to the other as from trying to stop each other.
Of more interest is their foreign policy and behaviour and the implications that will have on the world and, indirectly, us.
And that is complicated. The US losing it's position as Princess of all global relations and behaviour will be no bad thing.
And the US's treatment of China, for example, has pushed them into a PR exercise including significant environmental commitments. So that's not a bad thing in any way.
Trump's action is also removing the US's global monopoly on cell phone operating systems. Again not bad.
More difficult to predict is Russia. Trump's relationship with Russia is a worrying thing.
It will become bad if the US pressures another country so much that they decide to take action. Escalation is almost always bad.
Biden's likely international behaviour is not a known thing.
tl:dr - NAFC
Last edited by: No FM2R on Wed 4 Nov 20 at 14:04
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>> 224:213 >> So, a nightmare for the US.
>>
>> Trump already complaining about fraud and threatening the Supreme Court,
>>The Election isn't going to be a clear win for either, and the arguments have started.
>>
Prof Kim Wehle says
Don't think any cases will go ( eventually) to the Supreme Court.
There is a deadline of 08 Dec to complete such an action
There is no law to stop counting anywhere.
Some states may be challenged where postal votes although stamped up to 03 Nov but did not arrive by 03 Nov are not counted.
She said she thinks Biden will prevail.
>> Whoever does finally win, I think the US is in for a pretty crap 4 years.
>>
Kim said the Senate will screw any attempts to undo Trumps damage.
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I see Royal Mail shares are up over 10% today - this due to lockdown (and thus more parcels for Xmas) more than the US election presumably?
Haven't seen any new data from RM.
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As of 3:40pm GMT according the figures on the Beeb website, it's pretty much down to Michigan.
Assuming the other states go the way they appear to be, Michigan is 49.3% Biden, 49.1% Trump with approx. 10% of the votes still to be counted.
This may get very ugly if Biden wins by a whisker.
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>> Assuming the other states go the way they appear to be, Michigan is 49.3% Biden,
>> 49.1% Trump with approx. 10% of the votes still to be counted.
>>
If a state is won by less than 1% the loser ( only) can ask for a recount.
>> This may get very ugly if Biden wins by a whisker.
>>
Many others agree hence the significant boarding up of The White House, shops and other sites.
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>> As of 3:40pm GMT according the figures on the Beeb website, it's pretty much down
>> to Michigan.
What do they say about Pennsylvania?
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>> What do they say about Pennsylvania?
The BBC have yet to 'call' Arizona although several other sources record it as a flip to Biden giving him 238.
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BBC reckons it will be Biden by a whisker.
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Wisconsin has been called for Biden by AP.
If he wins Nevada (counting again tomorrow) and Michigan then he's hit 270 with Pennsylvania still to play for.
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As an aside, I'm pretty damned sure that a Trump Jnr. will burst on to the political scene if [when] Trump Snr loses.
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>> As an aside, I'm pretty damned sure that a Trump Jnr. will burst on to
>> the political scene if [when] Trump Snr loses.
He will try for sure. Thats a dead cert. He has just however had a pop at most of the GOP elders and the political movers and shakers in Washington. A lot of enemies have just been created. People he will need.
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When Trump finally accepts that he is no longer President what do you think he wii end up doing?
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Ranting on twitter probably.
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Ask BBD. A predictable reply
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>> When Trump finally accepts that he is no longer President what do you think he
>> wii end up doing?
It's an interesting question. I think the *eventual* realisation that the world no longer cares what the thinks will be quite genuinely shocking for him. He will certainly try to rationalise what happened as someone else's crime.
I expect he believes that it will have some huge benefit to him as he tries to do various deals as part of his business empire. I suspect that it will be quite the opposite and in fact he will suffer from other people's retribution.
I should think he'll retreat to his ranch, or whatever he has, surround himself with sycophants and regale them all with his tales of "When I Wuz Grate".
A book has got to be odds-on. Ghost written of course.
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He may try again in 2024....
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Maybe he'll show up in the UK at Farage's next political rally.
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My suspicion is that (if the result does remain as it seems to be going) that the Trump brand will become toxic and devalued very quickly (if it isn't already).
The Republican party have indulged him in recognition of the power it brings them with a Republican president, but he has made few (if any) friends amongst those who really matter, and many of them find him, in all other respects, repugnant. The electorate has enabled what they themselves were to frightened to do.
In defeat, I expect him to be dropped, sooner rather than later, like a hot potatoe (see what I did there?)
Without power/influence, and reputedly without money either (it may well be that creditors will now be queuing up, where they wouldn't if they were dealing with The President, and could (reputedly) take him to the cleaners), he is rendered an "untouchable" (in the Indian sense).
There are a number of people that look like they will go into rapid decline with him. Rudy Giuliani is one, but most notably Steve Bannon, who seems to have fallen foul of his lack of finance and (pending) lack of friends in high places (following his latest outbursts re Fauci et al, even his lawyers have abandoned him).
The chances of the Republican party selecting him to stand in 2024 are less than zilch, though a return to populism and the politics of the gutter with a different candidate will depend on how Biden/Harris walk the very difficult path they've been selected for. The Trump-style support is not going away as fast as he himself might.
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I think there will be ongoing rumblings in the populace over the election and the loss of their leader, and it will be similar to the divisions BREXIT caused here but with violence. There are many people in the US who really believe in him.
I also wonder how long Biden will last for. The Mail has reported a couple of fairly serious "senior" moments in the past week or so which can only get worse as he gets older.
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The ideas and movements that propelled Trump to the White House weren't of his making, they were there before he turned up, what he did do was have a very keen sense of what people wanted and how to use that to his advantage.
The political divide started years before, and it'll be there after he's gone. The question now is how do the current and future leaders deal with it?
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>> The political divide started years before, and it'll be there after he's gone.
>>
Maison Dixon ?
>> The question is now is how do the current and future leaders deal with it?
>>
A long job.
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>> >> The political divide started years before, and it'll be there after he's gone.
>> >>
>> Maison Dixon ?
No not that far back, however this sort of thing is difficult to pin a date on. However I'd say the origins go back probably 20 years and started to gain momentum in the last 10.
>> >> The question is now is how do the current and future leaders deal with
>> it?
>> >>
>> A long job.
>>
Very much so.
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They get it wrong simply because how some people say the will vote and how they actually vote are not the same. There is no way of eliminating this discrepancy. Polls can never be totally accurate. They are just straws in the wind. People place too much faith in them
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The BBC and CNN have just called it for Biden. He's far enough ahead in Pennsylvania to make it his election. The other states are still counting, but too late to matter now.
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From the BBC....
"Trump statement: 'This election is far from over'
We have a statement from Donald Trump, who was apparently golfing at his Virginia resort when news broke that Joe Biden is projected to have won the presidency.
“We all know why Joe Biden is rushing to falsely pose as the winner, and why his media allies are trying so hard to help him: they don’t want the truth to be exposed," the written statement begins.
"The simple fact is this election is far from over," it says, correctly pointing out that the vote counts have not yet been certified by election officials and remain projections by news media.
However we should point out that this is normal after an election - the media projects a winner based on an analysis of the votes that have been counted.
Trump vows that "beginning Monday, our campaign will start prosecuting our case in court to ensure election laws are fully upheld and the rightful winner is seated", in a reference to legal challenges that have already been filed - and many rejected - in several states.
Trump claims, without evidence, that the Biden campaign "wants ballots counted even if they are fraudulent, manufactured, or cast by ineligible or deceased voters".
“So what is Biden hiding? I will not rest until the American People have the honest vote count they deserve and that Democracy demands."
Election observers and officials overseeing vote counts have repeatedly said that no widespread irregularities have been seen in the process."
Last edited by: No FM2R on Sat 7 Nov 20 at 17:17
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The Last Leg had an interesting view that went something like this...
Trump is frightened he will be prosecuted for crimes he committed.
Will therefore give up the office to Pence saying he's bored of it all now.
Pence will then pardon him for all crimes.
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>
>>
>> Will therefore give up the office to Pence saying he's bored of it all now.
>>
>> Pence will then pardon him for all crimes.
>>
Overnight, (or did I dream it?),* it was suggested that if this did happen, it would be possible to prosecute Pence for corruption offences - something along the lines of " receiving a reward in return for promise of an action".
* I am in the habit of sleeping with the radio on overnight - consequently I hear snippets of programs - mixed in with fairly lucid dreams!
Last edited by: sherlock47 on Sun 8 Nov 20 at 07:29
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>>My suspicion is that (if the result does remain as it seems to be going) that the Trump brand will become toxic and devalued very quickly (if it isn't already).
AS at this moment on BBC.COM front page and BBC.COM/NEWS there are *NO* articles about Trump, mentions of Trump or any statements by Trump.
Have they dumped him *that* quickly?
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>> >>My suspicion is that (if the result does remain as it seems to be going)
>> that the Trump brand will become toxic and devalued very quickly (if it isn't already).
The Brand could have survived, his tantrums on twitter post election however have plastered the whole brand name with ridicule. The press featuring the more stupid and unsavoury of his supporters wont help.
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>> AS at this moment on BBC.COM front page and BBC.COM/NEWS there are *NO* articles about
>> Trump, mentions of Trump or any statements by Trump.
A brief aberration, this is on the BBC front page
www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-54788636
Not a bad article as it happens.
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>> AS at this moment on BBC.COM front page and BBC.COM/NEWS there are *NO* articles about
>> Trump, mentions of Trump or any statements by Trump.
Since the last news conference on Thursday/Friday I don't think he's said anything other than angry tweets. Neither is there much domestic political action, that will presumably restart this week.
I don't think he ever worked weekends, he was reportedly golfing when Pennsylvania was called for Biden.
What coverage I've seen/heard has been wrapped up in items headlined Biden.
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What's with Giuliani, he seemed vaguely normal, although I can't say I followed his career much but since he started working for Trump he seems to have gone off the deep end.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Sun 8 Nov 20 at 08:47
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Borat made him look a right idiot.
For those that can't face watching the full movie.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3b1tQco530
Last edited by: R.P. on Sun 8 Nov 20 at 09:13
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From the Ayrshire Daily News comes surely the best headline of the election.
www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.ayrshiredailynews.co.uk/amp/south-ayrshire-golf-club-owner-loses-2020-presidential-election
Truly all news is local news.
Last edited by: CGNorwich on Sun 8 Nov 20 at 12:33
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>> From the Ayrshire Daily News comes surely the best headline of the election.
>>
>> Truly all news is local news.
>>
The trump campaign accidentally booking a press conference at something callled Four Seasons Total Landscape in Philadelphia instead of The Four Seasons Hotel they intended is such a perfect disfunctional way for this to end. The writers really out did themselves.
The Four Seasons Total Landscape parking lot between a Dildo store and a crematorium.
The press conference was also notable for Giuliani, who was describing the forthcoming legal challenges to the result, being told by a reporter that Joe Biden had just been declared the winner of the election. His response: “Don’t be ridiculous.”
The real hero today is whoever answered the phone at Four Seasons Total Landscape and offered no clarification whatsoever until it was too late.
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/08/the-other-four-seasons-trump-team-holds-press-conference-at-suburban-garden-centre
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I watched that on NBC. No wonder Giuliani looked confused. I thought it was just the ridiculous announcement of vexatious litigation.
Could there be a more fitting coda to the reign of the disgusting reptile? Whoever coolly took the booking without pointing out the obvious error deserves a medal.
I watched a few hours of US news channels yesterday, senior republicans are not in general supporting Trump, who looked as if he was in meltdown and then seems to have gone off to play golf.
His irresponsibility is breathtaking, he must know he is stoking up violent protests.
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Have there been violent protests? Motvheard of any.
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>> Have there been violent protests? Motvheard of any.
>>
I've read of a couple of incidents, one involving armed protesters trying to get in a vote count and a couple of plots to attack or blow up other similar places.
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>> The real hero today is whoever answered the phone at Four Seasons Total Landscape and
>> offered no clarification whatsoever until it was too late.
>>
>> www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/08/the-other-four-seasons-trump-team-holds-press-conference-at-suburban-garden-centre
Same link I posted this morning!!
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Pence claims Trump enabled the vaccine to be created.
Trump says the vaccine will be available to all the USA except New York! What a petulant child!
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-us-2020-54932067
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He personally set the ball running - first he told them to try bleach, then hit the virus with some sunlight.
When the scientists failed to turn his insights into reality he just left them to it. He knew of course that it was a chinese virus and real men like him could treat it with disdain and a few aspirin.
Just to prove it, he caught it and recovered in only a few days, taking a trip around town in the presidential limo just to prove it to his devoted rabbble.
Fortunately the scientists he had ignored since they failed so dismally at internal body sunlight, managed under his guidance to come up with a magic injectable potion.
Generously giving them the credit for their outstanding work, he modestly said his only part in their success was a few well chosen clues provided at the start of the project, and a never ending supply of funds he thoughtfully saved by cancelling the WHO subs.
He knows intuitively that this proves he actually won the election and that the democrats simply faked it. He has a lot of experience with fakes in the media.
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An interesting point on the BBC today, it is very rare that an incumbent President needs to concede. They usually win their second term and are not permitted three, so by the next election they are merely spectators whoever wins.
The Bush beaten by Clinton was the last time it happened.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Fri 20 Nov 20 at 12:43
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There is an interesting theory that trump was always onto a loser. It centres around the fact Biden told his supporters to vote by post because of Corona Virus. They did in numbers because they knew they would be safe.
Trump told his supporters to turn out in person, because the China Virus wasn't to be worried about. They said they believed him, but when push came to shove, sone of them wouldn't risk it.
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Along from that I saw another theory that the polls were wrong because many people would vote Trump but not be prepared to admit it. They secretly liked his position(s) but thought it socially unacceptable.
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>> You heard it here first
>>
>> www.car4play.com/forum/post/index.htm?v=e&t=28229&m=616095
>>
>> (Well, maybe not!)
Never let an original thought go un-plagiarised.
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"He did not concede, however, and went on to repeat unsubstantiated claims of corruption, pledging to keep up the "good fight". It is worth noting that Mr Trump does not have to concede for Mr Biden to be sworn in as the 46th US president."
He has done the opposite of conceding, stating he intends to carry on disputing the results.
He's just a deluded attention seeker but the people who really disgust me are the senior Republicans who have gone along with it. The 25% or so of Americans who think he's right are a bit of a disappointment as well.
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Trump may well wield a lot of power within Republican circles even after he steps down. He may run again or be a fund raiser for the next candidate. Ambitious republicans can’t (yet) afford to dump him.
I read an interesting article at the weekend that said his daughter, herself allegedly a future candidate, risks being ostracised by the influential New York social circles when the dust settles. Quite apart from restricting her social diary this might reduce her fundraising capacity.
However I think once the immediate election furore is over the Trumps will have other priorities to worry about in terms of business and lawsuits.
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>> Trump may well wield a lot of power within Republican circles even after he steps
>> down. He may run again or be a fund raiser for the next candidate. Ambitious
>> republicans can’t (yet) afford to dump him.
I quite understand that none of them wants to be a pariah and there is also the likelihood of angering the Nazi/white supremacist/gun toting/thick elements of their voter base. That's exactly the point, they put their own interest above what is right and uphold a lie That might not be a surprise, but it is dishonest.
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I think this election is going to have a dramatic impact on future elections. Be that legal challenges, electorate suspicion or behaviour of the incumbent.
The US, and most of us I guess, have held the belief that an election is an inviolate and reliable way of choosing a Government. I think the machinations this time, and to an extent in the last US election as well, together with the willingness to believe conspiracy theories is likely to have a long term effect.
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I don't think there is any chance that Trump will run again. He has a lot of influence and support while he is still in power, but once he is out and the dust settles he will be seen as the clown he is with a lot of insiders who are keeping quiet now spilling the beans on his behaviour in the White House. He will still have his supporters, but only among a small minority of fellow nut jobs.
Assuming he is not actually behind bars, that is.
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We could hope that the sensible people will be all the more determined to vote, and that the type of Trump supporters who believe the election was stolen will decide it is a waste of time to vote again.
I wonder if the irony of trying to 'steal' the election by making false allegations that the other side has cheated has struck Trump and his lawyers.
It might be good if they won one of their vexatious cases and were shown on appeal to have falsified the evidence.
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He has acknowledged by his actions that Biden will be president - but as far as I am aware has not conceded. The words "I lost, you won" have not been, and will likely never, be uttered.
The 70m who voted for him includes rednecks, the brain dead, gun toting cowboys, the dispossessed, fantasists etc. The republican vote also includes the highly intelligent and successful who in this country would probably sit comfortably on the right of the Tory party.
The reason Trump was elected in 2016 is that he told them what they wanted to hear. He backed up his proposition with very effective campaigning - both digital and personal.
It did not matter that he was something of a stranger to the truth. His audience wanted it to be true, and dismissed as "fake" anything which failed to match their preconceptions.
It would be a mistake to asssume that he is now a spent force - even though there are questions about his finances and impending prosecutions when protection of the presidency is removed.
He has the money (probably) to fund either himself or one of his delightful family in 2024. The hangers on, lawyers, campaign managers etc clearly share his attachment to honesty and fairness, and will do whatever is needed for the proverbial 30 pieces of silver.
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>>It would be a mistake to assume that he is now a spent force
Perhaps. It is difficult to know how much vengeance is coming down the road. And also difficult to know how much distancing will occur. A small amount of breaking ranks could become a stampede. Ditto if one debt recovery operation begins in earnest, then a multitude of other financial institutions are likely to follow. I'd also guess that the IRS have been having a really close look.
Much as siding against Trump when he was President was the end of a career ,siding with him will probably turn out to be a lifelong decision. If his star fades, if even begins to do so, then the stars of the likes of Giuliani and others will plummet into the abyss.
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>> >>It would be a mistake to assume that he is now a spent force
>>
>> Perhaps. It is difficult to know how much vengeance is coming down the road.
Did I read somewhere that he wanted to order an attack on the Iranian centrifuge facility but was talked out of it (I hope by the military refusing to act).
What a way to go - by starting WW3!
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>> It would be a mistake to asssume that he is now a spent force -
>> even though there are questions about his finances and impending prosecutions when protection of the
>> presidency is removed.
I think he himself is a goner, but his ideas/style of campaigning will live on.
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>> I think he himself is a goner, but his ideas/style of campaigning will live on.
Forced to agree. 'Populism' is probably here to stay. Characterised by a contempt for science and experts and some nasty tendencies.
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A growing problem is the rise of the power of organisations. We are used to people on benefits and very low incomes being told what to do by government agencies and having little power to change the system. Any one who saw the Michael Fagan character in The Crown will understand.
The problem is that people like me are being treated the same way. Banks, professional bodies etc are demanding information without reason, to be provided via websites which are unusable because the people demanding the information or designing the systems have not worked in the environment that the people supplying the information have worked in.
Thus populism is not a Trump issue, it is a reaction to the way that society has moved and the way that governments demand that things like anti-money laundering policies and such like are implemented. I have suffered four such events in the last three weeks. My professional body requires me to fill in a 27 page online form each year for the purposes of regulatory review. I know, because of my involvement with the body, that our regulatory department is unable to see the information I submit. So where that information goes, no-one knows! It is box ticking of the worst kind. Especially since the 'save and close' button does not work and closing the page and opening it again means I have to fill everything in again from the beginning.
I need some tax advice from a specialist. He has know me for 40 years; eaten in my house (and vice-versa); his father went to school with mine. Yet I need to send him my Driving Licence and Council Tax bill so he can tick a box to say he 'Knows his Client'. How will that stop Money Laundering? Why not use discretion?
My bank want to know who runs my business. All they have to do is ask, but instead they require uploaded flow charts that require chartered accountants to prepare. It takes time, costs money and increases blood pressure. And of course none of this stop Money Laundering or terrorism, because governments will not take on Facebook etc in terms of end-to-end encryption of messaging.
Therefore, speak to a load of Chartered Surveyors who are the people that keep the property market moving and you will find extreme Trump like opinions because, being at the coal face, no-one hears you scream. And whilst I dislike many of Trump's personal attributes, the concept of 'draining the swamp' is very appealing. We need a return to common sense, personal discretion and compassion; none of which appear in dealings with modern organisations.
Last edited by: Netsur on Wed 25 Nov 20 at 10:12
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>>>We need a return to common sense, personal discretion and compassion; none of which appear in dealings with modern organisations.<<<
The problem with that philosophy is that the great unwashed majority do not have common sense. (or compassion, or personal discretion).
As members of an educated 'profession', I am very surprised that you can find a 'load of Chartered Surveyors' who sit at the extreme of Trump like thinking. Is there an age related issue to your sample?
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Seriously? we are discussing the maybe uncertain future of democracy, leading to the possible break up of the untied states, and you complain because it means you are being professionally slightly inconvenienced?
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>> We are used to people on benefits and very low incomes being told what to do by
>> government agencies and having little power to change the system.
>> The problem is that people like me are being treated the same way.
So you object to being treated the same way as someone on benefits or low income? You're income should bring you privilege?
>>My professional body requires me to fill in a 27 page online form each year for the purposes of regulatory review. I know, because of my involvement with the body, that our regulatory department is unable to see the information I submit.
There are many IT consultants that could help your organisation resolve it's failings. You could probably get Zero for a couple of doughnuts and a decent coffee. Not really anybody else's fault, is it?
>> Why not use discretion?
And what do we thing a lazy or disreputable accountant might do with that discretion? IOr should we make bad people agree to follow the rules and allow allow good ones discretion?
>> My bank want to know who runs my business. All they have to do is ask, but instead they require uploaded flow charts that require chartered accountants to prepare.
You need a chartered accountant to upload flow charts? I think you need to revisit that process.
>>And of course none of this stop Money Laundering or terrorism, because governments will not take on Facebook etc in terms of end-to-end encryption of messaging.
Facebook's encrypted messaging is use to execute money laundering?
>> Therefore, speak to a load of Chartered Surveyors who are the people that keep the
>> property market moving
Not the sellers & buyers? Perhaps an increased customer focus might smooth the paths?
Your entire post is at best naive.
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>> There are many IT consultants that could help your organisation resolve it's failings. You could
>> probably get Zero for a couple of doughnuts and a decent coffee.
1/ I am on a diet
3/ Too much caffeine makes me careless.
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I just wouldn't be confident I'd get your best work for two cream crackers and a diet coke.
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Not naive - frustrated.
Yes - first world problems, but when you simply want to do a good job for a client and you are stymied by hurdles which are placed in your way, which do nothing to enhance the service you are providing... Hurdles which improve the quality of service are fine. I have those every day as well, but I can see the benefit (and indeed benefit myself from them). But placing people in a position of authority, but who in reality have no discretion to exercise any authority, is futile and damaging to the enterprise they work for.
The best customer service is either John Lewis or Amazon: -
Rule 1 - the customer is right
Rule 2 - of the cistomer is wrong; Rule 1 applies.
And this can be applied in a 'slightly' less generous sense to all working environments where there is a logic to the request.
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Discretion essentially means treating two situations or two people slightly differently solely because the person in control thinks that is a good idea.
The human race will no longer accept that situation and will cast all sorts of accusations of bias or prejudice from the one who got the more restrictive decision typically resulting in the twin attacks of the courts and the tabloid front pages. God forbid that the discretionary decision inconveniences anybody who is a member of an alphabet club.
Neither will the human race accept any failure or less than ideal decisions. We do not accept that anybody who is dealing with us is another human being and prefer them to show robotic consistency.
Thus, the only 'safe' route is to have rules covering every conceivable interaction or decision point you can follow blindly with no discretion or subjectivity.
It was once said that a society got the police force it deserved. I think the same can be said of the entire establishment.
And if you'd like to know where you're going, come visit me in Chile. A country which was historically so scared of favouritism and/or corruption and/or bias that *every* conceivable process or interaction is covered by rules.
Ironically those who most object to such an environment are the same people that caused it's advent.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Wed 25 Nov 20 at 16:20
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I read an article somewhere stating that Biden is likely to avoid his administration pursuing Trump and his personal excesses, as he didn't want his term to be defined by it.
Seems quite a shrewd move to me if it is true, there seems to be sufficient potential movement against him outside the directly political arena to give Trump a very hard time if the gloves come off once he is no longer President. From the IRS, through commercial interests, through Cyrus Vance Jr there is a big queue building up.
Particularly if that hits the Trump dynasty finances, there is a real chance of much of his entourage melting away, and I'm not sure what his mental state will become without all the protective cocoon of state.
On the other hand, the GOP has seen a way of attaining the Presidency through populism, and if things don't change, it won't be overlooked for future contests. My own suspicion is that the Trump brand will be too soiled to go with even a younger Trump, but neo-populism under someone such as Ted Cruz is far from a distant proposition.
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www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-55050347
A really good article about the coal industry. More like this please.
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The US Election... - sooty123
