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And on it goes !
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Last edited by: VxFan on Fri 20 Mar 20 at 13:54
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Thanks guys. That’s what I thought. Bike bags take up a lot of space!
Taking my chances in the airport and on the plane....probably better self isolating here in the villa. No one around, and the few folks out and about give one another 3 metres of space.
Out of the frying pan into the fire....and so close yet so far from proper draught beer!
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Hairdressers closed.
Nail Salons closed.
Beauty salons closed.
Things are going to get ugly in Basingstoke.
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>> Hairdressers closed.
>> Nail Salons closed.
>> Beauty salons closed.
>>
>> Things are going to get ugly in Basingstoke.
>>
But as Jeremy Clarkson tweeted, we’ll soon know what colour everyone’s hair really is ;)
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ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
A long read, but worth sticking with IMO.
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Here's a summary of what to expect medically from Covid-19 in the UK:
There is no possibility of stopping the pandemic spread.
London is the current UK epicentre, approx. 3 weeks behind Italy for cases. Scotland is about 2 weeks behind London.
Doubling time for cases in London is now 3-4 days.
Over the next 12-16 weeks the majority of the UK population will have had the virus.
For the vast majority it is simply a bad cold - infectivity lasts up to a week, illness itself about 5 days with the dry cough persisting perhaps a couple of weeks further.
Once 60-80% of the population have been infected the rate of infections will drop off rapidly as there are less uninfected people for it to jump to.
Keeping the "at risk" population away from infection during this peak period is most likely to reduce the death count.
The virus itself is relatively fragile - 48hrs on a dry surface and all typical disinfectants destroy it. "Deep cleaning" is largely a term for public reassurance - cleaning horizontal surfaces, and those touched are all that is required after contamination.
Direct aerosol spread and touching surfaces that have been contacted by aerosol then touching your face is how you will catch it.
Thus: wash yer hands and don't poke your face/mouth/nose.
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p.s. I've been a doctor nearly 25 years and I have never seen an emergency like this - it's the real deal.
In saying that, for most it will not be severe and after a few months we will be in the rebuilding phase so try not to panic!
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Thanks for that, I find it somewhat reassuring.
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Thanks Doc. The bullet pointed, non flowery prose did it for me.
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I was doing National Service when this hit the UK. We went down like flies.
www.sinobiological.com/1957-influenza-pandemic-asian-flu-a-5753.html
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>>I was doing National Service when this hit the UK. We went down like flies.
Used to be a good pandemic flu every 10-20 years but since 1969 the swine flu of 2008 was a bit of a damp squib I think complacency has set in.
Amusingly a very large number of surgical masks being distributed to GPs have an expiry date of June 2021. If you peel the sticker off the original expiry date was June 2016!
Cannon fodder, mate. That's us.
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>> Amusingly a very large number of surgical masks being distributed to GPs have an expiry
>> date of June 2021. If you peel the sticker off the original expiry date was
>> June 2016!
>>
>> Cannon fodder, mate. That's us.
>>
You've got masks!
Miss Z is still grumbling about no masks in A&E and 2 query Covid 19 cases last night.
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>>
>> Amusingly a very large number of surgical masks being distributed to GPs have an expiry
>> date of June 2021. If you peel the sticker off the original expiry date was
>> June 2016!
>>
...retreads, mate, retreads.....
How's your wife placed in all this, Lygo. From previous exchanges she may be (very) high-risk grouped?
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>>How's your wife placed in all this, Lygo
Doing well - no sign of disease but blood counts are a bit mince due to the chemo.
She's been back at work for about 3-4 weeks.
She's a teacher and is now off work for the next XXX months!
At least we won't have childcare issues :-)
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Given that you're (almost) in the front line, and the possibility of her still being "off" I just wondered if she was avoiding you. (any more than normal, that is ;-) )
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>> Over the next 12-16 weeks the majority of the UK population will have had the
>> virus.
>>
>> For the vast majority it is simply a bad cold - infectivity lasts up to
>> a week, illness itself about 5 days with the dry cough persisting perhaps a couple
>> of weeks further.
>>
>> Once 60-80% of the population have been infected the rate of infections will drop off
>> rapidly as there are less uninfected people for it to jump to.
>>
>> Keeping the "at risk" population away from infection during this peak period is most likely
>> to reduce the death count.
Well I'm going back to being terrified then.
That looks like the "mitigate" or flatten-the-sombrero plan to me, the one where 250,000 die and ICU requirements peak at 8x capacity - I thought we had switched to "suppression" like everybody else, which Vallance hopes will limit deaths to 20,000?
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To amplify my last post, I hope Lygonos has got it completely wrong, is out of date, or is being satirical.
I will reproduce again the conclusion of the updated view from Imperial published on Monday (my bold):
"Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over. In the most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical care requirements that we examined. In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US.
In the UK, this conclusion has only been reached in the last few days, with the refinement of estimates of likely ICU demand due to COVID-19 based on experience in Italy and the UK (previous planning estimates assumed half the demand now estimated) and with the NHS providing increasing certainty around the limits of hospital surge capacity.
We therefore conclude that epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy, at the current time. The social and economic effects of the measures which are needed to achieve this policy goal will be profound. Many countries have adopted such measures already, but even those countries at an earlier stage of their epidemic (such as the UK) will need to do so imminently."
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It is what it is.
We're all going to get it until 60-80% have been infected.
Old and frail stay out of the way or risk death.
I might be wrong but epidemic suppression only works with a total lockdown for a very long period.
What do you think will happen in Wuhan when they let folks out and Covid is reintroduced by a traveller?
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I think everybody agrees with Lygonos' statements, the challenge is to try to make it spread over the longest time possible.
This is going to be regular cycles of surpress contact, infection slows; relax suppression, infection grows, and repeat;
Hopefully with each cycle being less aggressive than the previous. This will continue until 80%+ of the population has had the virus.
Will the resulting immunity be permanent? Perhaps not. Perhaps it will be only for a limited time further worsened by a mutating virus. Think how flu goes.
Then I guess it will become a seasonally occurring problem with the only protection being vaccinations which will require repeating annually and will be essential for the vulnerable.
Bearing in mind that there is a limited supply of the vulnerable and many will die quickly.
Think seasonal forest fires. The longer you prevent them the bigger they are when they finally happen. And ultimately you cannot stop them, you can simply limit the impact they have.
.
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Not that it matters to you lot, but President Pinera has just declared a state of catastrophe in Chile.
It pretty much gives him all the power he needs including control over the military the and freedom to use them on the streets.
At least it will stop the riots and protests which, believe it or not, have been continuing since last year.
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>> It is what it is.
>>
>> We're all going to get it until 60-80% have been infected.
Or until there is a vaccine
>>
>> Old and frail stay out of the way or risk death.
Correct.
>> I might be wrong but epidemic suppression only works with a total lockdown for a
>> very long period.
I hope you are wrong but I don't think so. But if everybody gets it in 12-16 weeks as you said then the 250,000 scenario is the relevant one. Vallance's 'suppression' was linked, by him, to c. 20,000.
>> What do you think will happen in Wuhan when they let folks out and Covid
>> is reintroduced by a traveller?
I think it will start again. Successful suppression buys you time, but unless that is long enough to be able to vaccinate (supposing even that a good vaccine can be made) then it's hard to see what the exit plan is. Chuff knows what the Chinese plan is. And that is the new big question, there's no exit plan that we know about (Vallance was asked the question as to what the suppressors (China, Korea I think were referred to) and said he didn't know.
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I cannot help but think that China is a step ahead of us in thinking.
These people are not idiots, they're following a plan.
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>> I cannot help but think that China is a step ahead of us in thinking.
>>
>> These people are not idiots, they're following a plan.
Makes sense to me too. Plans are open to them perhaps that would not be acceptable to us.
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Must be about time for the daily Boris Bulletin.
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>> Must be about time for the daily Boris Bulletin.
He has, and announced among other things. that all schools to close by Friday.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-51951914/coronavirus-uk-schools-to-close-to-prevent-virus-spread
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This area has a high proportion of hospitality businesses and all the owners we've spoken to have reported trade falling off a cliff and closure looming. However, being the only newsagent for miles that still do home deliveries we are having a mini boom as the more elderly readers are not going out to the shops if they can avoid it, certainly on a daily basis and are phoning up to book a daily delivery.
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>> This area has a high proportion of hospitality businesses and all the owners we've spoken
>> to have reported trade falling off a cliff and closure looming.
Another angle on that is self employed event caterers. I've spoken to several in last couple of days where previously good and remunerative work has just dried up. All bookings for April/May on just cancelled. Income gone off a cliff (and no doubt supplier bills still outstanding). Not clear whether the various interventions for small businesses that the Chancellor announced yesterday will help at one/two man (or woman) band level.
They are being directed towards benefits and in particular Universal Credit. There is though something in UC called the Minimum Income Floor. Originally intended to deter people in self employment which was marginal, unremunerative and in some cases a try on topping up from benefits it assumes an established self employed individual makes equivalent of 35hrs at Living Wage. Although it's been eased for those suffering from, or isolating because of, Covid there has not (yet) been any suggestion of it being relaxed for those people for whom work has just gone.
Not just catering, same will apply to many others in the 'gig' economy.
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It's not even just the gig economy. Son in law works in maintenance for a large Birmingham hotel. It's not a well paid job. Yesterday he was put on a 3 day week. Today they have asked him to do an overnight role, kind of duty manager but not quite (i.e. not a promotion) for 3 nights instead of maintenance. The hotel is nearly empty apparently so how long that kmay last is anyone's guess.
RoR mentioned his newsagency. All shops around us in the Algarve now appear to be closed, incl the two newsagents just by us, though I have a feeling they may be open for an hour early doors.
Police are apparently stopping cars to seek proof that the journey is essential. Advice is to put a destination into your satnav to at least show you're not just out for a leisure drive. However I imagine the police can probably read social media at least as well as non-police. We went for a few miles walk around the lagoons behind the beach today to see the flamingos. We weren't the only ones out but there really weren't many, and the roads are very quiet.
Earlier I read unsubstantiated reports that all Spanish hotels are being closed and residents kicked out. It may well not be true, but there must be many people stranded already and to remove all lodging is a bit much. Portugal has announced thousands of hotel rooms and other lodging to be made available for key staff, maybe that's behind it.
The reports I think I previously mentioned about motorhomes not being allowed across the Portuguese/Spanish border were apparently possibly incorrect, if you were a resident of another EU country (incl UK) and were trying to get home.
There is a fair amount of (maybe not deliberate) misinformation, misinterpreted information and plain hearsay out there so it's difficult for work out the wheat from the chaff, especially when you are depending on Google translation (which actually is remarkably good).
Portugal is in a state of emergency as of this afternoon. That means the emergency powers have been signed off. A meeting of ministers tomorrow will determine what measures they will invoke. At the moment I am still more than 50% hopeful that our flight will run on Friday evening.
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>>
>>
>> RoR mentioned his newsagency. All shops around us in the Algarve now appear to be
>> closed, incl the two newsagents just by us, though I have a feeling they may
>> be open for an hour early doors.
>>
>>
>>
We are anticipating having to close to customers if a lockdown means only food shops are allowed to open, but plan to still receive the days papers and deliver them as news and magazine sales form the bulk of the shop's business.
Whether it comes to that, who knows? I am fortunate in one way in that I live in a rural area with a low population density so a better chance than many of avoiding it and there is certain to be a complete lack of visitors from outside as the holiday market collapses. There is no point in people going anywhere because when they get to their destination there is nothing to do, all the normal holiday places will have the shutters up - and by the time the season kicks in, bailiff's notices on the door of many.
We live in the fabled "Interesting times".
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>>Thus: wash yer hands and don't poke your face/mouth/nose.
I really struggle with the touching the face bit. Especially as I wear glasses, I have realised how many times I push them up, nudge them and scratch my face.
Was up visiting my 88 year old dad last night - took every precaution that I could including sitting on my hands for the duration of our time in the living room. Then I started to feel a cough coming on, tried not to cough, it was coming, then I realised I had slumped so far down in the seat that I was probably blocking my airwaves!
Much appreciate the post and that actually reassures me and worries me as well. Felt that we just needed to keep my dad isolated until it passes but possible reality is he will need to get it at some point if he is ever going to come out again?
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My 19 year old niece's place of work, an entertainment venue has closed. She is on a zero hours contract so no pay.
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Another link that will I think improve my understanding a bit. Only part-skimmed it so far.
emcrit.org/ibcc/COVID19/?fbclid=IwAR2CRF4ZHVmfnzyUKhlGvSPdyOsuRIroN4en6kRyXzWdbNMaYD99Jq8bubM
It mentions mutation and that there appears to have been at least two variants in Wuhan by inference from the death rates.
Also that standard masks prevent transmission by droplet, which seems obvious but we have been told that masks won't protect us (presumably because there aren't any).
In a reference to R0 (the number of people that each sufferer infects), it puts the R0 at 2.5-2.9, a bit higher than seasonal 'flu. It says the R0 on board the Diamond Princess was 15!
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>>I really struggle with the touching the face bit
Sorted.
www.mofahaimages.com/b3ta/0800PINHEAD.jpg
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And another thing .....
My wife and I have a Baltic cruise booked with Cruise & Maritime due to depart on 23 June; we have paid a £200 deposit each, and now the request has arrived for the balance of £1200 apiece. C&M have, like other cruise companies, taken their ships back into port and no cruises will take place before 24th April.
Considering the present situation, would you pay the remaining balance, request them to hold off until at least, the ships are sailing again, or cut and run? We have insurance, and the deposit was paid on credit card.
Cheers
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>> Considering the present situation, would you pay the remaining balance, request them to hold off
>> until at least, the ships are sailing again, or cut and run? We have insurance,
>> and the deposit was paid on credit card.
>>
>> Cheers
>>
The email is probably automatically produced.
Is there a chance that you could lose your deposit if you don't pay the final amount within a certain time?
Give them a call to see what their position is.
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Cut and run.
If it is receding by end of June (unlikely but who knows) you could likely rebook much cheaper...
Check your insurance carefully - many exclude 'FCO advice' from standard policies.
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>>Cut and run
>>
>>If it is receding by end of June (unlikely but who knows) you could likely re-book much cheaper...
I pretty much agree with that.
I might just consider replying and requesting assurances that the boat will sail.
Of course it depends if you want to protect your money (don't pay) or do your best to take the cruise (pay).
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>> Considering the present situation, would you pay the remaining balance, request them to hold off
>> until at least, the ships are sailing again, or cut and run? We have insurance,
>> and the deposit was paid on credit card.
>>
>> Cheers
Your cruise has not been officially cancelled, if you dont pay the balance, you lose your deposit. If they cancel after you pay the full amount you get it all back, if they dont or wont your insurance will pay.
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Thank you for all your comments - very useful. We will (try to) ring both our insurers and the cruise company tomorrow ......... I'll let you know what we decide to do.
I had been particularly concerned about Zero's comment .....
"Your cruise has not been officially cancelled, if you dont pay the balance, you lose your deposit. If they cancel after you pay the full amount you get it all back, if they don't or won't, your insurance will pay."
Insurers are like bookies, aren't they, if I were one, I think in the present circumstances I'd be inclined to pay out £400 now rather than (a fairly certain) £2800 later.
I should add that I am 70.5 years old and current FCO advice is for 70+ year olds not to travel on cruise ships; in fact, the FCO currently advises against any non-essential travel.
It's a pity because since taking to the North Sea in my mate's boat, I've developed a nerdy interest in the Kiel Canal, and this cruise does/did a there-and-back.
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I think your decision should be advised by running a very fine tooth comb over the conditions of your insurance viz a viz grounds fo cancellation and associated cover. (and if available, their clear stance on any future cancellation)
Some will cover you for cancellation due to the current circumstances, some will not (or at least not without further, optional cover).
No-one will currently cover you for cancellation due to coronavirus on a new policy.
My own annual policy has just seen the provider issue a "sloping shoulders" email distancing themselves from almost all responsibility associated with coronavirus, except health cover for journeys commenced not against FCO advice (that's currently none, then).
The small print has always given some leeway on cancellation (not a great issue for me since the main target of my purchase is medical insurance, the rest I can take the risk on if I have to), but I'm not at all sure their distancing would fully stand up in court. It's not of any great concern to me since we haven't booked anything anyway, but is an interesting development.
Ant CC cover may depend on the absolute failure of the cruise line to provide the service. If FCO are still advising against it, but it ultimately sails with local passengers, then who knows how that would pan out.
Kiel Kanal - seen it! It's alright, but....... ;-)
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I've spent quite a bit of money booking a 2 wk driving holiday in Europe for late April. I believe we can just alter the Eurotunnel booking but each hotel and AirBNB will need to be contacted to see what their situation is. Mostly paid in full, at non-cancellable cheapest rate to achieve savings, and not on credit card (who saw this coming???).
Countries with overnight stops are German, Holland and Belgium.
I quickly read through the HolidayExtras insurance last night and I'm not sure any of it would be recoverable through them as it stands.
Never mind, if I've lost a couple of grand that's nothing to how much my pension pot has gone down (though at least that might come back a bit sometime).
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"My wife and I have a Baltic cruise booked with Cruise & Maritime due to depart on 23 June; we have paid a £200 deposit each, and now the request has arrived for the balance of £1200 apiece. C&M have, like other cruise companies, taken their ships back into port and no cruises will take place before 24th April".
I have just had an email from my travel insurance company saying that he policy does not cover losses arising from Corona virus - alhough it is not clear whether this relates to new bookings post email or the whole policy.
I had already put a deposit (about £500) down on an apartment in Spain for next winter - November and December. Right now it is unclear what will happen - we may be able to go, we may still be in the midst of lockdown, or I may succumb (hope not!)
I would not pay more money into a holiday that is not going to happen. It may be covered by insurance - even if this seems the case the insurers may not have the funds to pay due to the volume of claims.
Neither would I rely on the credit card - perticularly as FCO advice today is not to travel.
You probably need to accept that you may lose £200 deposit if the insurance or credit card don't pay. No point in making the probable loss even larger. Best bet may be to contact the company and see if they will give you a credit against a future cruise.
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Thanks again for your replies......
Via a live-chat to C&M, we have been informed that we will receive an e-mail before the 'final' date for payment of the balance - they could give no more information at this time. I certainly am not inclined to pay any more money at a time when the entire fleet is either in port or heading for home.
The insurer is 'Holiday Extras' - and we can't get in touch with them!
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There is a statement on the Holiday Extras website here:
www.holidayextras.co.uk/travel-insurance.html
setting out their position on what is and isn't covered.
It is not as clear as it might be, and should be read in conjunction with the small print of your policy (since it also doesn't distinguish between new and existing policies) .
It is very much like the email I received from my own insurer, and as I said above, I'm not sure how contractually enforceable it all is, unless your original contract gives aligned "wriggle room". (In my own case, small print indicates that cancellation under these sorts of circumstances was never covered - I can/could generally live with that, and even more so in real time as I don't have any active bookings).
In particular, Holiday Extras seem to be distancing themselves from paying out on anything Covid-related in the future, (from the end of the current 30-day FCO advice) except Emergency Medical Treatment (and I think even this would not be covered if travelling against continuing FCO advice)
If you are travelling after 17th April 2020 our policies do not provide cover for cancellation, abandonment or curtailment claims if the FCO advises against all or "all but essential" travel. Our policies will also not cover any claims caused by or relating to Coronavirus, COVID-19, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-COV-2), any mutation of Coronavirus, COVID-19 or SARs-COV-2 or any pandemic or fear or threat of any the above. We also can not cover any claims relating to any fear or threat concerning these viruses. This general exclusion applies to all sections of cover except for the Emergency Medical Expenses section. For more information please read the Policy Wording and FAQs.
Overall, I think the best cover you will get is Medical, and only then if FCO advice doesn't debar whatever trip you've taken.
Given that the FCO is currently advising not to travel on Cruise Ships if over 70 (separate to the more general current 30-day advice), you might want to consider whether that specific advice will stay in place longer than any more general relaxation (and my own guess is even the general relaxation isn't coming soon). if so, then my reading is that HE say you would have absolutely no cover, whether or not you travelled.
My own thoughts would tend to be around not throwing good money after bad! Your mileage (and that of others) may vary.
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I have to admit that I have quite warmed to Boris having seen the manner in which he is coming over in his briefings. The buffoon in him seems to have taken a back stage.
Will history show the current situation to Boris's as the Falklands was to Maggie?
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>> I have to admit that I have quite warmed to Boris having seen the manner
>> in which he is coming over in his briefings. The buffoon in him seems to
>> have taken a back stage.
>>
>> Will history show the current situation to Boris's as the Falklands was to Maggie?
>>
Remember, we are witnessing the biggest health emergency in several generations and with a Conservative Government that has systematically reduced real funding for the NHS year on year for the last decade!
My feelings are that we are late in reacting and don't even have the basic equipment for our medical teams.
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The most useful things I've read or watched about Coronavirus are the post from Lygonos at 11.15am yesterday and this Facebook video describing one person's experience of getting it:
www.facebook.com/Firstaidforlife/videos/2555366414586310/
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I think before the week is out we will see an attempt to invoke restrictions similar to those being imposed in parts of Europe.
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>> I have to admit that I have quite warmed to Boris having seen the manner
>> in which he is coming over in his briefings. The buffoon in him seems to
>> have taken a back stage.
>>
>> Will history show the current situation to Boris's as the Falklands was to Maggie?
>>
Very much so. I always said he wanted to be seen by the British people as some sort of Churchillian type people's hero and that was what would keep us safe. At the time I meant Brexit, but the same applies here.
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I will also say this, if he gets the country through this then pharck the haters and negative gainsayers in the Labour Party and the Media, he'll have my vote going forward.
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Just back from sunny Espana. A stressful few days. Lots of last minute cancelled flights. Jet2 doing a brilliant job on the ground in the circumstances. Alicante airport deserted late this afternoon.
An ‘air tanker ‘ A330 with an LS flight code took off before us with a repatriation flight to Manchester. I flew to Newcastle with 2 friends where it was chaotic. Picked up the hire car from Enterprise, long section of A1 closed but made it home to Settle. Return hire car to LBA tomorrow. £153 for 15 hours but worth it. Some poor beggars on our flight had cars at Stansted, but a transfer coach provided for them.
Self isolation beckons....
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My local pub here (Flannery's Beerhouse, Tobalaba, Santiago) just started a delivery service with all their beers in takeaway containers and their full menu by motorbike to your door.
Got to love the Irish.
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>> I will also say this, if he gets the country through this then p***** the
>> haters and negative gainsayers in the Labour Party and the Media, he'll have my vote
>> going forward.
If we do get through it without half a million dead then there will be at least as many saying it is despite Boris not because of him.
For him to come across as not being a buffoon is not exactly above and beyond what we should expect. And in fact I don't think he was at all Churchillian. Churchill didn't start his most famous speech with "Many families will have members of their family killed on the beaches".
It's not about Boris. What he needs to do is sign the cheques and keep out of the way. I prefer to rely on the experts.
On a positive note, I learned yesterday that a chemist friend worked with Patrick Vallance at GSK and has absolute confidence in his ability and integrity.
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>
>> If we do get through it without half a million dead then there will be
>> at least as many saying it is despite Boris not because of him.
For gods sake man, get a grip, your hysteria is becoming palpable. Half a million dead?
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Re Boris, the change is noticeable and the reasons apparent.
He is out of his depth, he has no control, so his bluster has disappeared.
What we have now is a nervous concerned man, passing on and acting upon advice from experts*
He appears to be much more likeable and competent as a result.
*thank the lord, that is not Dominic Cummins, on the silver cloud principle, this may prove to be his nemesis
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Can't say I've either liked or disliked Boris more as a result of this.
But you wouldn't wish his job on your worst enemy right now would you?
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I'd sooner have Boris at the helm, than Teresa May. I couldn't begin to think the mess we'd be in right now if she was still PM.
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>> Can't say I've either liked or disliked Boris more as a result of this.
>>
>> But you wouldn't wish his job on your worst enemy right now would you?
Quite right, I think our view of him is tinged with a heavy degree of sympathy.
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Yes, I am feeling a bit negative this morning.
I didn't pluck the number out of the air.
From the Imperial paper 16 March 2020 -
"In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB ... not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality. "
Imperial also said that the mitigation strategy would likely result in ICU demand peaking at 8 x capacity which it is implied would increase that.
Lygonos said "Over the next 12-16 weeks the majority of the UK population will have had the virus."
If that happens many who need ICU care will not get it.
Vallance's lowest estimate of the mortality so far has been 0.6% I think. The percentages used for infection in the 'mitigate' scenario were 60%-80%
Sticking with 60% and 0.6% gives 67.8m x 60% x 0.6% = 244,000 as the lowest estimate for that strategy.
So success is 244,000 dead. Failure is upwards of 510,000.
That's why I'm hoping they will stick with and succeed with suppression, even though there is as yet no exit strategy. At least some treatments might emerge and ICU capacity can be increased.
Vallance said he thought suppression could be done at the cost of 'only' 50,000 deaths but of course it would not be over until lockdown measures were successfully removed.
I was a bit anxious yesterday when they seemed to be fudging on what the strategy actually is. On Monday or Tuesday, I can't remember which, BJ said that over 70's and the vulnerable would be asked to self-isolate from this weekend. That still hasn't appeared in the gov.uk guidance and hasn't been mentioned since.
Am I really overdoing it do you think? I'm actually an optimist - in general I tend to think something will turn up.
Last edited by: Manatee on Thu 19 Mar 20 at 10:47
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Actually a death toll of 250,000 would only increase the annual UK mortality figures by about 40% for 2020. Certainly a major event but viewed in a historical persepective it wont be very statistically significant especially as most of the deaths will be in the older part of the population.
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>> Am I really overdoing it do you think? I'm actually an optimist - in general
>> I tend to think something will turn up.
Yes, given that total fatality rate got nowhere near that in China, you are not only being a glass half empty person, you are being a "my glass has a hole in it" person.
This whole event is a statisticians wet dream, frankly they should be the first victims.
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>>
>> >> Am I really overdoing it do you think? I'm actually an optimist - in
>> general
>> >> I tend to think something will turn up.
>>
>> Yes, given that total fatality rate got nowhere near that in China, you are not
>> only being a glass half empty person, you are being a "my glass has a
>> hole in it" person.
>>
>> This whole event is a statisticians wet dream, frankly they should be the first victims.
Thanks, I hope you're right. I have been rather polarised by a conversation earlier with someone assuring me that it is harmless to just about everybody for whom death wouldn't be a welcome release.
You don't subscribe to Lygonos's post then?
It's not over in China. Like NFM I think they probably have a plan.
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Probably an urban myth, but those with elderly or not so savvy members of the family might want to know the latest scam is for callers to offer to do the shopping for self isolating OAPs, taking the money and not returning.
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I was informed this morning by a reliable source that Narberth Crematorium in Pembrokeshire has installed an extra burner.
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My sister in law, in clapham, reports troops moving around at night.
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The troop movements were reported yesterday on FB and were said to be due to the rumoured death of Prince Philip, now debunked in the DM.
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>> My sister in law, in clapham, reports troops moving around at night.
Lot of military movements around Oxfordshire at the moment. 3 chinooks flew over our house within the space of ½ hr last night. And no, they weren't trying to find my stash of loo rolls before you ask ;)
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Talking of the military, it wasn't that long ago that the emergency rations stores were sold off, knocked down or abandoned. Some are still extant, but abandoned, others repurposed. Wonder what happened to all the sacks of flour and dried milk?
I know of one, not well known, hidden in the woods off Fairoaks airport. now houses some agricultural machinery.
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>> I was informed this morning by a reliable source that Narberth Crematorium in Pembrokeshire has
>> installed an extra burner.
Not sure how they could do that in such a short period of time.
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>> Not sure how they could do that in such a short period of time.
ALDI had them on offer.
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>>
>> ALDI had them on offer.
>>
My local store had sold out.
(Was going to install in the back garden - everything brings some sort of business opportunity.....)
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>> (Was going to install in the back garden - everything brings some sort of business
>> opportunity.....)
Ebay? Amazon? Ali express?
Last edited by: VxFan on Fri 20 Mar 20 at 02:05
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...it was a joke......
(and it wouldn't have worked, I've only got a Lidl back garden......) ;-)
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>> Not sure how they could do that in such a short period of time.
>>
It will have been planned months if not years ago and is just coincidence timing wise if true Crematoria capacity in parts of the U.K. is reaching capacity, though I have to say I wouldn’t have guessed that Pembrokeshire was one of those areas
Last edited by: VxFan on Fri 20 Mar 20 at 02:05
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Woking has a good one, built in the 30's the Germans came over pre war for ideas and you can see striking similarities in certain notorious sites.
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My sweepstake forecast will be 30,000-50,000 UK deaths due to Covid as I'm an optimist (pure guesstimate to be fair).
Italy had 475 yesterday alone and is still on an upward trajectory.
The flip-side is a lot less deaths due to atmospheric pollution and seasonal flu over the same period so the blip in UK mortality will be smaller than you think.
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>> The flip-side is a lot less deaths due to atmospheric pollution and seasonal flu over
>> the same period so the blip in UK mortality will be smaller than you think.
My sweepstake number is 20k max. Given that there are 165,000 cancer deaths a year, there is going to be some double accounting (ie terminal cancer patients getting an early shove from Covid) And there is the rub, a lot of those dying, blamed on covid could well have carked it before year end anyway,
Last edited by: VxFan on Fri 20 Mar 20 at 02:06
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>>And there is the rub, a lot of those dying, blamed on covid could well have carked it before year end anyway
Absolutely right, Z
A more useful, if somewhat morbid, measure would be "Lifetimes lost"
Say 85 minus the patient's age at death divided by 85 as a number of "full lives" lost.
Problem is it makes an 80-yr old only worth 10% of a 35-yr old.
Maybe if they had applied this weighting technique to the 2016 vote.... :-)
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I remember seeing a briefing by the CSO who thought if 20,000 died from it, then that would be 'a good outcome'.
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Interest rates cut to 0.1%.
Not good for savers.
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>>Interest rates cut to 0.1%.
>>Not good for savers.
My tracker mortgage is now 0.4%
Doesn't make up for the plummeting stock market though!
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I have to say that BJ continues to impress. It is difficult to see how he could possibly be addressing the crisis in a better way.
If you had the comparison of a Latin American leader you'd really see what I mean.
Imagine we'd had that t*** Corbyn in control at this time!!! Or even May? Oh dear God.
A determined man who also listens to his advisors? About as good as it gets, isn't it?
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I'd agree with that, it just shows what tremendous amount of responsibility can do to people. It seems to have brought about a sense of responsibility and all that silly buffon act has been firmly knocked on the head.
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Well he's doing better than the media who are useless but it's still bumble.
Not one reporter pinned down what the strategy is - suppression like China, or some version of mitigation? Chris Whitty seemed to blur this yesterday and didn't go near it today unless I missed it - my attention wandered a few times when Johnson was waffling..
Remember Monday's report from Imperial College that says
"mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of [the NHS] being exceeded many times over... even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB"
and
"epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time"
Johnson busked it in a way that suggested 12 weeks was at least thinkable as a time frame for dealing with it. Maybe the hope is that UK and substantially every other nation can eliminate new cases so the measures can be lifted but it didn't sound like that, more like keeping infection at a manageable level. Not sure what would happen to countries with no or useless health systems in the full suppression scenario.
He was a lot better than Trump - faint praise.
Last edited by: Manatee on Thu 19 Mar 20 at 18:22
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>> I don't agree.
>>
Neither do I.
Johnson is listening to his expert advisors and carrying out the course of action suggested by them. Whether that eventually turns out to be right or wrong it would be madness for him to do anything else.
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>>
>> Johnson is listening to his expert advisors and carrying out the course of action suggested
>> by them. Whether that eventually turns out to be right or wrong it would be
>> madness for him to do anything else.
I don't disagree with that but frankly it's what he should be doing - I'm not giving him a medal just for not clowning.
The obfuscation and fudge between suppression/mitigation creates doubt for me that I don't like. I realise that we can't know everything because the peasants would be revolting, although I don't see the harm in explaining why they aren't doing more testing (concentration of people, kits and resources presumably).
Taking Lygonos's point that it needs to run through the population (which doesn't seem to be the Chinese way at the moment) we are mitigating but we know that probably can't happen in just the summer without swamping the NHS because the NHS capacity line on the sombrero graph is really much lower than was presented.
If there's more meat from Whitty and Vallance I'd like to see it/read it.
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I remain comfortable that he is doing a good job, doing it the way he should be doing it and is a far better bet than Corbyn, May or Swinson ever could have been.
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You should try and find today's press conference with the CMO and CSO they covered a lot of the issues people had raised about their strategy including ICL.
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Can't, any pointers? I'd be grateful.
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There is no vaccine, there is no treatment.
This is not going to be won by medicine, but by mathematics.
I'm telling my patients to treat every person as if they are infected amd every surface as if someone has coughed on it.
I am advising the high risk group in no uncertain terms that whether they survive or succumb is down to them keeping infection free until everyone else has had it!
I reiterate: this is the real deal. Having been involved with planning at a fairly high level my initial scepticism is long gone.
*edit* - on a more reassuring note remember that for the vast majority it will be a bad cold/flu only.
Last edited by: Lygonos on Thu 19 Mar 20 at 19:49
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>> *edit* - on a more reassuring note remember that for the vast majority it will
>> be a bad cold/flu only.
That I agree with, but too many of the high risk group are relying on the last bit including some of the vulnerable. One of the two carrying on has two children of school age.
I have bailed from my usual shop volunteer shift (the shop is running on reduced hours with fewer volunteers, the OAPs have nearly all sensibly withdrawn). There are two who have serious cardiovascular problems who think they will be fine. The odds are they won't die of course but maybe 20% chance of a serious bout and maybe (who knows?) 10% chance of dying if they catch it is too high. They attach a lot of importance to doing their bit (as do I).
It's not a question of being brave. I thought about discussing it with my daughter but I know what she'd say - that she wouldn't thank me for deliberately taking a significant and avoidable risk of depriving her children of a grandparent.
Last edited by: VxFan on Fri 20 Mar 20 at 01:59
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>> Can't, any pointers? I'd be grateful.
>>
I'll try and dig it out. It was on this morning on the bbc, I watched it on my laptop. It was a Q&A session with the advisors and a woman who was handling the questions from the journalists. However the questions seemed more a technical /scientific nature than the normal daily briefing, without being ott for the normal viewer.
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youtu.be/TBFXtdY4mZo
I'm pretty sure that this was it.
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Boris is doing exactly what he should be doing which is listening to his advisers who are experts in their particular field and recommending the best course of action as the situation changes. Those advisers also have a team of other subject matter experts behind them providing imput. During the floods in Yorkshire Boris was criticised for not being visible wandering around in his waders. Now he is visible he's accused of waffling. WTF do you propose he should be doing?
I've skimmed through the Imperial report and it is so full of "we assume this, we assume that" that it's almost meaningless. Chris Whitty was asked today what he thought the death rate would be in the UK. He explained that any prediction now would be nothing more than speculation since no-one knows with any certainty how many people have actually been exposed to the virus. Their tests to date have mostly concentrated on patients requiring hospital treatment which is basically a self-selecting sample. There could be thousands more people who have been exposed yet experienced very mild or no symptoms at all and the only way to provide a meaningful estimate would be to include the results of mass testing for antibodies. Something they don't have yet.
It was a tactful way of saying if you don't start with known credibly accurate data you might as well flip a coin.
I admire his honesty and refusal to be drawn into speculation and guesswork although I'm not sure the media feel that way, but stuff them.
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The cure -financial meltdown - is arguably worse than the disease.
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>> The cure -financial meltdown - is arguably worse than the disease.
You add Brexit into that mire and you are further in the sheet than you can ever ever imagine.
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>> The cure -financial meltdown - is arguably worse than the disease.
>>
Not quite sure i follow that, how is a financial meltdown a cure for anything?
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>>The cure -financial meltdown - is arguably worse than the disease.
Right, because who wouldn't rather be dead than broke.
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>>
>>
>> I admire his honesty and refusal to be drawn into speculation and guesswork although I'm
>> not sure the media feel that way, but stuff them.
>>
>>
A very good post.
Most of the media are only interested in headline making soundbites, detailed and well thought out analysis is of little interest to them.
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>>Most of the media are only interested in headline making soundbites, detailed and well thought out analysis is of little interest to them.
I entirely agree. Though sad to say they are producing the reports their readers want.
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"I've skimmed through the Imperial report and it is so full of "we assume this, we assume that" that it's almost meaningless.............."
A 'King's new clothes' moment, Kevin. I am now a 70yr old retired and, somewhat cynical, biologist; I have written, read, refereed and reviewed many scientific papers. Nowadays, I scan through a paper, go back and re-read the introduction and the conclusion and tell if it's of any worth or not; I'm afraid that for this submission, my bull-sheet sniffer twitched like a rampant rabbit. It is guesswork, based on estimates founded on assumptions. A nice bit of academic noodling that gave us a fabulous glimpse of the bleedin' obvious. Weeks ago I was shouting at the telly that this was far more serious than was being assumed. Last week I was defending Trump for banning flights into the US ....... 3 days later our beloved European neighbours were closing their borders ....... nobody was criticising them. It was time for us to get real a fortnight or more ago, I'm afraid it isn't sensible to try to control a pandemic like a rugby ball in a scrum.
Covid-19 is spread from human to human - the only answer we have at present is isolation - that should NOT be too difficult to understand. Rates of infection in London are currently much higher than the rest of the UK - that shouldn't be too difficult to understand either, when you see video of crowded tube trains. I despair, I really do!
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>>our beloved European neighbours were closing their borders .
So much bitterness rather casts a shadow of doubt on any opinion you pass.
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"So much bitterness rather casts a shadow of doubt on any opinion you pass."
Grow up and behave yourself.
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Boris is trying to put a positive spin on the reality which is we have about 4 months of sheet ahead where it's up to the olds to decide if they want to live or die.
Even if he is out of his depth with the science he's doing his best to be seen to be captain.
I don't think we can expect more of him as figurehead.
I ain't no economist but 4 months of supporting grossly reduced incomes for a big slice of the population is the price we have to pay, and pay willingly IMO so that businesses are ready to jump back into action as the infection rates fall at the end of the summer.
Failing to do this will have horrific stories of rapid mass unemployment requiring direct support anyway, people starving, mass foodbank use, and destitution unbecoming the world's 5/6th largest economy, as well as months of economic stagnation.
There will be inflationary consequences, no doubt, but we'll get than by QE as we did previously with only indirect benefit to those who are struggling.
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Has anyone seen the convoy of military lorries in Italy on the news. I wasn't able to count them but they are moving bodies from one town to other facilities.
I guess if there are numerous trucks then it suggests that the death toll may be higher than is being reported, after all, with 3000 spread over a region, one wouldn't expect a convoy of trucks needed in one town!?
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>> Has anyone seen the convoy of military lorries in Italy on the news. I wasn't
>> able to count them but they are moving bodies from one town to other facilities.
>>
>>
>> I guess if there are numerous trucks then it suggests that the death toll may
>> be higher than is being reported, after all, with 3000 spread over a region, one
>> wouldn't expect a convoy of trucks needed in one town!?
>
Unless you can see inside every wagon then I wouldn't try and overthink what's inside every one and the purpose of each journey.
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>>
>> Unless you can see inside every wagon then I wouldn't try and overthink what's inside
>> every one and the purpose of each journey.
>>
The report said that they were moving bodies.
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Can't see any reason why they'd lie about the death toll.
Be it 300 or 3000 it's still grim.
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>>Can't see any reason why they'd lie about the death toll.
I doubt their ability to do so. Everybody has access to the internet, nobody keeps secrets, I think it would be inevitable for the truth to out if it was substantially higher.
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>> >>Can't see any reason why they'd lie about the death toll.
>>
>> I doubt their ability to do so. Everybody has access to the internet, nobody keeps
>> secrets, I think it would be inevitable for the truth to out if it was
>> substantially higher.
China and North Korea are the only countries where its currently technically & culturally feasible to keep the lid on social media, and even the Chinese authorities struggle at times.
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Your ridiculous bitterness and inability to avoid making snide comments about the other countries in Europe whilst trying to set yourself up as some sort of scientific expert who should be taken seriously is laughable.
The idea of someone as limited as you appear to be telling anybody else to grow up merely compounds matters.
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Miss Z got in for the midnight shift and found out she is transferred to the Covid 19 ward.
STILL NO FIT MASKS. Having to make to with surgical masks and plastic face shield.
I doubt that we are anywhere near ready for a real escalation.
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>> Miss Z got in for the midnight shift and found out she is transferred to
>> the Covid 19 ward.
>>
>> STILL NO FIT MASKS. Having to make to with surgical masks and plastic face shield.
>>
>>
>> I doubt that we are anywhere near ready for a real escalation.
All the more reason to act faster on the distancing and isolation measures. There's clearly not enough headroom or data to play around with fine adjustments to the infection rate just now. Get proper control first.
I declined to go to London twice last week - I was the only one 'attending' by video, all attendees had the choice.
Johnson might be acting like a grown up but he'll have to do more than show he is bright enough to stop clowning to convince me he's the man for the moment. He looked bored to me, probably close to sending somebody else along instead. I hope it isn't Raab.
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SWMBO was showing me pics this morning from social media of busy bars in London and elsewhere in the UK. Mostly youngsters, who I guess feel fairly comfortable about getting a bout of flu.
The sooner Boris shuts the bars etc the better.
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>> SWMBO was showing me pics this morning from social media of busy bars in London
>> and elsewhere in the UK. Mostly youngsters, who I guess feel fairly comfortable about getting
>> a bout of flu.
>>
>> The sooner Boris shuts the bars etc the better.
Agreed, I hope there is more in the way of anti-infection measures today. I'll take the resource build up as a given, I want to see it under control at this stage.
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>>Mostly youngsters, who I guess feel fairly comfortable about getting a bout of flu.
In actuality this is good for getting immunity levels out there as long as they keep away from olds & frails.
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Yep I recognise that but they don't/won't/can't. I think some of them are viewing it as a just reward to the older generations. I get this impression from some of the memes she is showing me from social media.
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>> Yep I recognise that but they don't/won't/can't. I think some of them are viewing it
>> as a just reward to the older generations. I get this impression from some of
>> the memes she is showing me from social media.
How you know they won't, can't, don't?
I would suggest that social media is the last place you use to make any judgements at all.
Specially from a 1000 miles away.
Last edited by: Zero on Fri 20 Mar 20 at 12:29
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Like I said, "I get this impression from some of the memes she is showing me from social media".
I've also read comments in different places but I recognise they may be lying/inaccurate, or true, but either way not representative of all, I'm not daft.
Not that 1000 miles is much different from your 15 or whatever, you can't see that far can you?
Anyway it's not just social media.
edition.cnn.com/2020/03/19/uk/london-coronavirus-diary-npw/index.html
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>> Not that 1000 miles is much different from your 15 or whatever, you can't see
>> that far can you?
Because I have been out and about in the uk, actually yes. Certainly a more accurate observation that one based on "nemes"
Last edited by: Zero on Fri 20 Mar 20 at 13:24
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Having managed to get on an unscheduled ‘repatriation’ flight late Wednesday from Alicante I’m amazed how blasé a lot of local folks around my area are. Some pubs are now closing this weekend, but unlike where I was buying basic foodstuffs in Spain, I’m told that larger supermarkets aren’t limiting the number of people entering, or ensuring that everyone uses hand sanitizer on entry and wears latex gloves.
Lockdown meant lockdown. Dog walkers were only allowed out 100 metres with Fido from their apartment. If you had outside space, excluding balconies, you could not go out with the dog. The few people out, walking to buy food or take rubbish to the bins, were keeping 3m apart. Impossible in heavily populated areas, and the police, of which there seem to be far more in Spain, were stopping cars and pedestrians and asking where they were going. Bank visits were by appointment only. You couldn’t drive into the mountains and go walking. Even alone. Cycling has been banned unless to buy food..a few stupid Lycra clad tourists ignored the rule, were stopped, arrested and fined heavily. Like €3000.
We’re still playing at it here in the uk. At least living out in the sticks I can get out for a short walk in open countryside directly from my backdoor and keep my distance should I meet anyone. For the time being.
If lockdown gets anything like Spain it’s going to get real messy.
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I agree LL, Portugal is almost as you describe Spain and it was the start of imposition of those kinds of measures before last weekend which made us realise this was serious, and watching the UK news where they seemed to be lagging so badly made us decide to stick it out here. By the end of the weekend though we decided that with no end in sight we'd be better in our own home, hence tonight;s flight.
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Good luck getting back smokie. Cattle class on my low cost carrier was a risk you take.Some people on our unscheduled Newcastle flight had left their cars at Stansted.
My rented villa was surrounded by empty properties, the weather was nicer and self isolation not a problem. Nice long distance views, lots of TV channels, plenty of books and alcohol and full supermarket shelves. Because of my old mum I decided to return....otherwise it was 50/50. I’m happy with my own company!
It’s still not being taken seriously here by a lot of old folks....as Lygonos says younger folks out socialising are less at risk. My 92yo mum was collected Tuesday AM by the local Age UK minibus and taken to shop at the local market. She insisted on seeing her elderly friends on the minibus, despite kind neighbours offering to do all her shopping.
That service, and future day trips out and communal meals finished today. Not before time.
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Coronavirus Volume 6. - legacylad
