I've had a bit of a windfall and wondered about having a punt. Interest rates for any sort of savings seem to be on the floor.
The last time I had a dabble in the stock market was when Lloyds bank offered shares, shows my financial acumen. May as well as put my money under the mattress.
I'm aware you shouldn't put anything into the stock market you can't afford to lose.
Any thoughts and opinions?
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Yeah, don't put anything into the stock market you can't afford to lose!! :-)
I've had their letters too and thought about it, not sure it will be the same as a public utility sell off though, but I've no idea why I feel that. I do think RM was set artificially by HMG and friends and ended up too low, and that is less likely to happen with a "private" company.
I'm no expert btw...
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Read somewhere recently that they are trying to get a listing on the stock exchange as a general business rather than an insurance business because the insurance market is depressed at the moment. I understand that over 50% of their revenue comes from insurance products.
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I can't tell you whether it's worth doing but I'm not.
It's a good time for a float, top of the market. Not to say it won't go higher, but that is whey they are selling now.
I also have a feeling Saga's best days might be behind it. I insured a car with them a couple of years ago but the renewal was a big hike - they rely on the brand, the friend of the over 50s image, but some think they are taking it too far and the punters are beginning to wise up.
Of course I don't always get these things right. I bought two lots of Royal Mail and flogged them for a profit before they went up another 20%.
Part of the problem is not knowing what price you are buying at. You put your money down but the price, in this case, is somewhere in a band 184p-245p.
The grey market in Saga is trading at about 245, which suggests a small premium if any after the float, if the price is at the top of the range as expected.
Unlike Royal Mail, which had a virtual promise of a 5%-6% yield, Saga will be on a p/e of c 20 , so EPS will be lucky to reach 6% and yield is forecast at 2%-3%.
Saga are promising jam tomorrow, saying they will grow though offering extra services - so why haven't they done it in the last few years when they have more or less trodden water?
Too dear. If you think it is a good long term prospect, bide your time and buy in the market when/if it looks better value.
Just my opinion - not advice, if I knew what would happen I'd be richer than yow (or me).
Telegraph comment -
goo.gl/JPPtYY
Last edited by: Manatee on Sat 17 May 14 at 11:46
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I might have a punt - not sure yet. Won't be parting with any funds till Tuesday at the earliest.
Edit: Thanks for the link, Manatee. Haven't bought a ST today.
Last edited by: Clk Sec on Sun 18 May 14 at 09:35
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The outlaws told me SAGA was offering some really good deals when they turned 50 (about 10 years ago) but those days have gone and they have found they can get better deals elsewhere.
I suspect they are trading on the brand image, which is OK for now, but not sure about the long term. But like M&S
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>>>I suspect they are trading on the brand image, which is OK for now
Agreed mikey. Years ago Saga age folks seemed happy to fit the Saga image and trust the company really was special but things are moving on... I think the younger "Saga" folks are not keen on Saga offerings.
We were with Saga insurance for a couple of years after turning 55 and received a 3yr magazine subscription. They soon became hopeless on the insurance offers and I'd chuck the magazine/enclosures within 30sec of opening and flicking through.
At 58 I think I have a good 20yrs+ before becoming a Saga person.
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For SAGA to do better in the future, and thus be a profitable buy, one of a few options would be necessary;
There's a business opportunity that they haven't taken, but for some reason we now expect that they will.
They've been run inefficiently, but for some reason we believe that they will now be run well.
They've ignored a channel, but for some reason we now believe that they will adopt it.
They have been undervalued, and in the future will be more appropriately valued.
[There's more, but you get the idea]
As far as I can see none of those are true, and thus it is likely to perform in accordance to plan, and unlikely to deliver a short-term ownership profit.
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Saga magazine is unadulterated rubbish and is merely a carrier for advertising flyers.
We had a free sub for a while as we had insurance quotations (blooming expensive and not taken up).
Now they want us to PAY for it?
Ha,ha, ha!
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Roger, you simply cannot be this obtuse.
In the beginning they were giving you the magazine free, but you would never be a customer.
Now they found a way of dropping your cost without losing any revenue.
Seems to me like a management team I'd vote for.
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>> Now they found a way of dropping your cost without losing any revenue.
Printing/mailing of house journals and the like is costly. Price of mailing and newsprint is way ahead of inflation and organisations whether commercial, club or charity want/need to reduce it. Roger will probably find his SAGA magazine says free if he accepts it as an electronic shot either an email with links or a pdf attachment.
The Law Society happily send me the Gazette daily at no cost in the form of an email. If I wanted the print version I'd pay through nose.
Even in government and tied to some absurdly expensive central contracts we could send out a stakeholder 'e-zine' every quarter for a price of pence per subscriber.
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>> Roger, you simply cannot be this obtuse.
>>
>> In the beginning they were giving you the magazine free, but you would never be
>> a customer.
>>
>> Now they found a way of dropping your cost without losing any revenue.
>>
>> Seems to me like a management team I'd vote for.
>>
The point I was making is, in our opinion that it was not and is not, worth paying for in any way, shape,or form.
I would have been a customer for both home and car insurance had SAGA been in the least bit competitive: they were not.
Certainly they have reduced their costs by ceasing to send their magazine to us: I have reduced my trips to our recycling bin and our local council has less rubbish to collect and deal with.
We all win!
Last edited by: Roger. on Mon 19 May 14 at 14:38
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I wonder if there will be a worthwhile premium when trading commences, as I believe the offer is already oversubscribed.
Now, where's my crystal ball?
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SAGA share flotation - smokie
