I'd go for the first one, not least because it seems to follow what is happening in the real world ie people in normal health are living longer.
I tried the second one and it works solely on BMI and smoking, it gave me 18 months BTW! There's a lot more than that to consider, including genetics, commonly and crudely assessed by asking how old your parents were when they died.
Even that isn't foolproof. My partner's parents died before they were 40, of natural causes. She is 79 and has a sister of 80.
Last edited by: Meldrew on Fri 10 Feb 12 at 14:51
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