Non-motoring > Baltic Dry Index signals recession Miscellaneous
Thread Author: madf Replies: 21
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New Fri 20 Jan 12 11:55 
 Baltic Dry Index signals recession - madf
The Baltic Dry Index..basically world shipping rates - has collapsed in the past week.

investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm

As it is factual, cannot be fiddled and is not influenced by anything like politics, it's a good indicator of trouble (or good news) on the world economy.

At present it appears to be flashing red... hardly surprising with the Eurozone in recession and China slowing and the IMF are cutting forecasts for growth.
www.moneymarketing.co.uk/politics/imf-slashes-global-growth-forecast/1044698.article


Stand by for a bumpy road ahead.
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New Fri 20 Jan 12 13:19 
 Baltic Dry Index signals recession - mikeyb
Air cargo is also a good indicator, although the only recent figures I could find were from Cathay Pacific who were saying in December that volumes had fallen 11.9% over the year.

I work in Aerospace and the air cargo figures are viewed as a good prediction to the future - passenger numbers often follow cargo rates
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New Fri 20 Jan 12 16:10 
 Baltic Dry Index signals recession - Dutchie
Some countrys in the Eurozone are in recession not all.

We have to stay optimistic and young people don't give up hope.To much negativity on the news.
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New Sat 21 Jan 12 09:09 
 Baltic Dry Index signals recession - Baz
So where is a good home for one's dosh, Madf? I am trying to save so that i can retire while I'm still alive, stock markets are bleak, cash is negative, gold is over-priced. You are obviously a pretty shrewd & knowledgable character in these respects, , any advice for your mates :-)?
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New Sat 21 Jan 12 09:23 
 Baltic Dry Index signals recession - -
Yes i'd be grateful for any pointers too.

Have about £15k spare which i want to invest but not tie up for too long.

We have toyed with buying a second house (to rent) if prices drop, which i envisage will happen when interest rates rise as they surely must, that amount should be around £25/30k by 12 or 18 months so a decent deposit.

Last edited by: gordonbennet on Sat 21 Jan 12 at 09:24
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New Sat 21 Jan 12 09:58 
 Baltic Dry Index signals recession - CGNorwich
You have £15 grand and want a quick return of £30?

Finian's Rainbow 3.10 at Ascot this afternoon would be my recommendation.

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New Sat 21 Jan 12 10:43 
 Baltic Dry Index signals recession - -
>> Finian's Rainbow 3.10 at Ascot this afternoon would be my recommendation.

Oh dear, did it read as if i expected to double my money in 18 months.

I was asking in a motoring forum where i might shove a spare £15k which i'm adding to regularly so my savings in this area will be another £10/15k in the next 18 months.

I only wanted some alternative suggestions to the usual ISA's of where to put that 15k for the time being without tying it up for years in case an ideal house pops up.

I don't expect anyone to predict the housing or any other markets, i imagine we all have our own views where the country is going.
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New Sat 21 Jan 12 10:46 
 Baltic Dry Index signals recession - Bromptonaut
>> Oh dear, did it read as if i expected to double my money in 18
>> months.

Not to me. Your writing is amongst the clearest on this forum.
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New Sat 21 Jan 12 10:51 
 Baltic Dry Index signals recession - CGNorwich
Wasn't an entirely flippant remark on my part. Have "invested" a few quid on said nag myself!

Don't think you will get more than 3% on any safe and liquid investment at the moment. If you find somewhere please let me know .
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New Sat 21 Jan 12 10:56 
 Baltic Dry Index signals recession - Zero
>> Wasn't an entirely flippant remark on my part. Have "invested" a few quid on said
>> nag myself!
>>
>> Don't think you will get more than 3% on any safe and liquid investment at
>> the moment. If you find somewhere please let me know .

Safe and liquid? no you wont. Safe and good % is NSI bonds when they open again this year, its liquid in that you can withdraw your money again but with loss of interest. I managed to slap 15 grand max into the last opening window, I didn't think to slap another 15 grand in under my wifes name.
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New Sat 21 Jan 12 10:59 
 Baltic Dry Index signals recession - CGNorwich
I managed to slap 15 grand max into the last opening window, I didn't think to slap another 15 grand in under my wifes name.

I did - well not your wife! , mine ;-)
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New Sat 21 Jan 12 10:00 
 Baltic Dry Index signals recession - Zero

>> We have toyed with buying a second house (to rent) if prices drop, which i
>> envisage will happen when interest rates rise as they surely must, that amount should be
>> around £25/30k by 12 or 18 months so a decent deposit.

With inflation falling, interest rates will not rise till 2016 according to those in the know. Dont expect a huge crash in the property market you can jump into, prices are being held up by buy to let investors who are finding the current 5-6% yields from rent over capital the best place for money.

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New Sat 21 Jan 12 10:04 
 Baltic Dry Index signals recession - madf
>> So where is a good home for one's dosh, Madf? I am trying to save
>> so that i can retire while I'm still alive, stock markets are bleak, cash is
>> negative, gold is over-priced. You are obviously a pretty shrewd & knowledgable character in these
>> respects, , any advice for your mates :-)?
>>

Flattery will get you everywhere:-)

I am expecting the current market rally to continue to May and then fall hard.. and bottom in November ? (We are in year 4 of the market's 4 year cycle.. last was 2008:-(

I'm trading in and out of gold shares... A quick 15-20% in a few weeks.. and then out..

Short term with recession forecast in the Eurozone in 2012, there will be some stockmarket bargains later this year.

The market calendar I follow (crudely) suggests a bubble c 2016.

www.rubbernet.com.sg/monk%27s_chart.htm

Edit

the nutters in the left wing of the Labour Party are talking about rent caps on private rented housing.. Seems a sensible way of ensuring there in no low priced housing being built. With the next GE due 2105 and half the lectorate thinking money grows on trees and they deserve their beneifts as a right then a Labour win is possible. (No doubt the Tories want Ed Miliband to stay as Labour Leader)

Last edited by: madf on Sat 21 Jan 12 at 10:07
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New Sat 21 Jan 12 11:09 
 Baltic Dry Index signals recession - Roger.
Save Ed campaign here:- tinyurl.com/6lpsx9r
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New Sat 21 Jan 12 14:59 
 Baltic Dry Index signals recession - John H
Panic. The sky is falling down.

However, wait a minute - C(a)r4P forum predictions about the FTSE going down down down have in the main not come true.

The only stock traders I know who make a killing on the market are those who make it from their charges to you for playing with your money, or who get given bonuses at the year end to share in the fees profit their investment company made.

My view, based on solid evidence, is that for the ordinary punter there are no big profits to be made from the market. The odd punt might make a good return but that is just that - odd.

Of course, based on their own anecdotes, there are people who may disagree.

Last edited by: John H on Sat 21 Jan 12 at 14:59
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New Sat 21 Jan 12 15:13 
 Baltic Dry Index signals recession - Zero
Indeed MADF did predict the FTSE falling to very low levels a year or two back, well below what they did fall to.

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New Sat 21 Jan 12 15:22 
 Baltic Dry Index signals recession - CGNorwich
My predictive powers were no better. Finian's Rainbow came in second . Ah well there's always the 16.10
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New Sat 21 Jan 12 15:24 
 Baltic Dry Index signals recession - Robin O'Reliant
Should have gone each way.

Not that I ever do, it's win or nothing.
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New Sat 21 Jan 12 15:32 
 Baltic Dry Index signals recession - CGNorwich



Should have gone each way.

Not at 5:2
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New Sat 21 Jan 12 17:06 
 Baltic Dry Index signals recession - Dutchie
I agree about the ordinary punter making big profits don't think so.

Interest rate should go up at least by 1% if inflation keeps up above 4%.

I can't see interest rates at this level untill 2016.Anybodys guess.The hope is low interest rate people spend more,that is not always the case.We have savings but not to waste.

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New Sat 21 Jan 12 18:11 
 Baltic Dry Index signals recession - smokie
Thinking back there was recent thread when Thos Cook were on their way down where I asked Zero if he'd put his money in their shares there and then, and from memory he said he wouldn't have been averse - and again from memory I think they were up around 30% the following day.

Blacks were also hitting some good daily percentages when they were rumbling along the bottom - the trick would, of course, ensure you get in when the percentage is going up not down.
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New Sat 21 Jan 12 18:54 
 Baltic Dry Index signals recession - madf
>> I agree about the ordinary punter making big profits don't think so.
>>
>> Interest rate should go up at least by 1% if inflation keeps up above 4%.
>>
>> I can't see interest rates at this level untill 2016.Anybodys guess.The hope is low interest
>> rate people spend more,that is not always the case.We have savings but not to waste.

Current levels of interest rates have zero to do with inflation . That nice Mr King at the Bank of England is lying through his teeth when he talks.

Basically the banks are being forced to hold more assets when they lend money. And they have got to be "Good" as opposed to "junk".. Now that means the banks need loadsofmoney. So they can't get them from shareholders so the BOE is giving them cheap money so:


they can make huge profits lending them out - to repair the losses of their past mislending and PFI etc.
and they have money to lend.

Otherwise we would have a HUGE credit squeeze as banks reduced lending.

It's happening all over Europe.. the Eurozone money supply is falling signalling recession..

Inflation is a good thing for people who OWE money. Deflation for people who OWE money is death by 1,000 cuts.
Governments OWE money. So they screw the savers.. And try to keep the wheels from falling off like they nearly did in 2008.

If they fail, 1929 all over again.. But world wide and worse. (US GDP fell 30% in 3 years .. imagine that today!)

Last edited by: madf on Sat 21 Jan 12 at 18:57
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