Continuing to 'analyse' the way the economy is heading, I can't see any reason to want to put money into stocks/shares at present.
With the reality of tax-hikes and pay restraints still to really bite, along with what appears to be the ongoing 'blind-eyeing' to increasing Western debts, falling house prices locking people in with negative equity, etc ,etc...
... is there anywhere better to stash a bit other than NS inflation-linked bonds, and looking for the best cash ISA deals.
I reckon if the FTSE hits about 5500 it might be worth a flutter, but maybe a second dip is on its way when Greece (and ?US) default and Ireland, Spain, portugal, Italy show that consolidating your debt a la Carol Vorderman's adverts turns out to be a very very bad idea.
Gold is surely in a bubble now as once assets/shares drop enough to be 'good value' the cash will flow back into equities.
/ramble off
Anyone made any interesting investments trying to buck this way of thinking??
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If you need anything that will be of value long term I'd buy it now - it will more than likely cost far more in the future and low rates of interest, less tax, mean that you'd probably never gain enough to cover the additional cost.
A tanker full of petrol or diesel would be a good start...:-)
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Having just plopped £110 of diseasel into the Shogun (at least it lasts a month) I think it's time to look for tankers on eBay...
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good old standby of premium bonds?
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If the banks collapse.. and if Greece, Ireland and Spain default - that's a possibility, property prices will collapse if banks stop lending ...
And with the US possibly being downgraded form AAA status, extreme turbulence is possible...
Last edited by: madf on Tue 19 Jul 11 at 07:26
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For long term saving you might consider absolute return funds, like Standard Life's Global Absolute Return Strategies Fund (GARS).
uk.standardlifeinvestments.com/ifa/our_investment_capabilities/absolute_returns/index.html
Do your own research, as they say. Buy through a fund supermarket like Hargreaves Lansdown and save the 4% initial charge. I have some in my SIPP. Difficult to know what to hold at the moment.
I tend to favour index funds (UK, Europe, Japan, Pacific exc. Japan) but there's currency risk everywhere (one reason to spread it about) or by exception managed funds like Neil Woodford's Invesco Perpetual Income fund that follow quality businesses (the Warren Buffett approach).
The attraction of GARS is that it does the whole strategy within one fund - it is diversified within itself, having been designed as a complete pension fund for SL's own pension trust.
There are other "absolute return" funds.
I think history shows that Martin is probably right - but if like me you invest a few thousand at a time, property is not really an option unless you want to gear up and be a landlord. I should have done property 15 years ago (shouldn't we all). Maybe it's not too late - rents are strong in many areas.
I should warn you I'm not rich so doing the opposite of what I suggest might be a plan!
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Interest rates are at levels where there is only one long term direction - which spells bad news for investing and property once the move starts...
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Depends on your time scale.
Long term (7 years plus) UK property
At 5500 the FTSE isnt going anywhere in the short term (2 years) up or down.
Far eastern stocks if you want to gamble.
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Fine wine really is a bubble waiting to burst.
It's a really good question. I suggest high yielding FTSE100 shares. Shell (there's a hedge against rising fuel prices) - buy the B shares not the A shares which "suffer Dutch tax". Aviva.
But yes, when interest rates rise then everything is going to take a pasting. I've been buying pictures and furniture with spare cash. Sound long-term inflation hedge.
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>>>I've been buying pictures and furniture with spare cash. Sound long-term inflation hedge.
Possibly but the real advantage of these is the ownership pleasure (assuming antiques) even if the prices remain flat. I've bought some oils recently and looking at clocks this week... prices mostly on the floor at the moment.... mind you some of the retail dealers don't seem to be reflecting that yet.
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Nows a good time to buy that 'gas guzzler' you always promised yourself. A pal of mine is having difficulty shifting his '08 TTRS...the p/ex offered on it was a real eye opener. I would be tempted but need the 4 seats in my 330Ci. The best sub £10k I ever spent.
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Provincial auction houses... a world apart from Chelsea dealers!
Interesting article in ATG (40th anniversary) saying that the price of a Georgian Pembroke table is £350 which is what it was in 1970...
Ownership pleasure is greatly enhanced when one can look at it as (1) a bargain and (2) a sound inflation hedge! (So unlike a new 5 series...)
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Interesting article in ATG (40th anniversary) saying that the price of a Georgian Pembroke table is £350 which is what it was in 1970...
please dont let this excellent secret out of the bag just yet as i havent finished filling my brothers barn with extremely cheap antiques and the odd classic speed boat.
antiques in small town salerooms are cheap and some excellent quality and the best bit is everytime i go to a saleroom i can find a great pub with some great priced food and a great bottle of wine at good prices
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>> It's a really good question. I suggest high yielding FTSE100 shares. Shell (there's a hedge
>> against rising fuel prices) - buy the B shares not the A shares which "suffer
>> Dutch tax". Aviva.
I've started buying into Aviva recently. Shame, because I bought a bunch at about 200p in 2009 and then sold them for about 300.
I'm about 25% in stocks and 75% in cash at the moment, waiting to see if there could be a big move down.
My portfolio is quite speculative at the moment (including a big weighting in banks), and due a battering if there is another big crisis, but I can afford to wait it out, and also hedge where I can.
I'm considering buying a flat in London, especially as it seems easier to get a BTL mortgage with only 25% deposit now (I found it hard to find products that didn't need at least 40% a few months back).
I don't think that property is going up substantially in the short-term, but the income should be decent (same idea as high yielding shares) and the tax breaks are (IMHO) ridiculous.
It annoys me now that I invest in stocks and end up having to pay 30%, whereas you can pretty easily get around CGT on investment properties.
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Mini-thread bump...
Just seen the FTSE at 5393 - from the chatter about Italy likely needing to default I presume there's still some dropping to go.
Still haven't put any dosh into Stocks/Shares this year due to the world's economies still seeming to ignore the bulk of economic recovery is still to happen.
Trying to get in "at the bottom" although I know this is likely to be a futile exercise!
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>> Mini-thread bump...
>>
>> Just seen the FTSE at 5393 - from the chatter about Italy likely needing to
>> default I presume there's still some dropping to go.
>>
>> Still haven't put any dosh into Stocks/Shares this year due to the world's economies still
>> seeming to ignore the bulk of economic recovery is still to happen.
>>
>> Trying to get in "at the bottom" although I know this is likely to be
>> a futile exercise!
The very bottom is 3,500 ish, and it will crash to this in the event of severe near disaster but no lower.
The not quite a disaster is 4500, but the very bad news bottom is 5000, and the severely over heated is 6500.
So get in at 5000 and out at 6500.
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>> The very bottom is 3,500 ish, and it will crash to this in the event
>> of severe near disaster but no lower.
>>
>> The not quite a disaster is 4500, but the very bad news bottom is 5000,
>> and the severely over heated is 6500.
>>
>> So get in at 5000 and out at 6500.
If those are short term figures, I would agree.
I've bought more Aviva today (the yield is approaching 7%), and I'll probably start buying the index soon (via an ETF).
Also bought some Barclays, and Kazakhmys is looking appealing again, and I'm keeping a close eye on Vodafone too.
Mind you, I'm really only dipping my toe in at the moment. I'm still about 70% cash.
The market is a bit gut wrenching at the moment, but if you can stand it, good long term value.
I'm about 50/50 UK/US, but I think the UK is actually a better bet at the moment.
Might even get my spread betting account funded again, for a bit of index spread dabbling.
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Had a speculative punt on BAE systems - yeild over 6% now, but not to sure about the longterm effects of defence cuts.
Spread Betting is great fun - quick way to make / lose money :-)
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100% cash waiting for the crash to finish..
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Bad investment cash, its loosing 5% p/a
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Not in NS Inflation linked bonds it isn't.
Unless you sell up within the first year of course.
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Ah but thats not cash is it.
And its only 15k! I am maxed out on them!
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OK for £15,000 then where to go?
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When my current savings bond expires next year, I might have a punt and put £20K in Ernie Bonds. Depends on the interest rate athe time.....might get a better return than half a measly percent ...and no risk.
Ted
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Based on current experience it might not be worth it in my opinion. But if you can leave it there and not worry about gaining interest for a bit... you might get lucky as someone has to.
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It's a long shot Ted.Everything is up in arms at the moment.Maybe the best advice is spend when you are certain age,the kids get the house and we can't take a penny with us.:)
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Ted should buy a fast sporty car and enjoy it. More importantly have holidays too. Don't leave all the money and house to the children. I hope I get little from inheritance! Not my money and don't want it.
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My thoughts as well Rob and Dutch. Hope for a decent win of a few quid now and again and fritter the rest away until we don't need all the trappings we've got round us now.
Mind you, I bought a Premium Bond in about 1971 and we.ve never had a tickle. We're still at the same house.
A quid was a fortune then....you could buy a new suit and shoes, get a tram into town, pick up a bird, wine and dine her and still have change for a pie for tomorrow's lunch !
If you told that to kids today, they'd never believe you !
Ted
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Any bets on how much lower Lloyds might go? They were 32p earlier today.
What does your crystal ball say, zero?
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You tried Zopa?
I've been experimenting with it the last year or so. Presently earning over 6% lending to A rated borrowers, and no bad debts.
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Time to buy into wonga.com - won't be long 'til they're lending to the Italians.
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Plan:
Hedging against rising inflation and ongoing low interest rates with the NS Inflation linked bonds.
Not going to take out Stocks/Shares ISA this year unless FTSE hits 4500 (£3k ready if it hits there) and the rest when/if it hits 4000.
I can't see any great economic recovery over the next 2-3 years as so many countries who initially tried to ignore their soverign debts will be forced into harsh austerity measures, almost certainly dumping their growth prospects.
My guess is that if the FTSE doesnt hit 4000 this year, it will do in either 2012 or 2013. As Zed says, I reckong around 3500 is as low as the FTSE can feasibly go before the price of shares becomes too tempting to keep cash in gold/commodities.
Don't want to try buying into a bubble (ie. gold) so I'll probably put any extra loot against my mortgage in the offset facility.
It really is like playing roulette, although the odds are normally a little in your favour, rather than the House's....
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It really is like playing roulette, although the odds are normally a little in your favour, rather than the House's....
ive done extremely well over the last 5yrs but a few months ago i turned my position into cash and left it in the bank. the markets are to volatile so i'll take my excellent profits and just leave it in the bank aswell as a large amount of real cash incase the worst happens and i cant get hold of the money in the bank
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Finding the discussion interesting. Apart from NS bonds and ISAs I am not sure what I should do either. Not huge sums but cannot offset against a mortgage.
I will review our circumstances soon. Have anything from £600-1000 spare per month soon.
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Investing yer hard-earned - Stuartli
