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Last edited by: VxFan on Sat 19 Mar 11 at 23:50
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i must be clairvoyant or similar.
i had 40percent of my investment fund exposed towards japan and on tuesday changed my position on a whim to buy euro stocks. that just saved our 75k and i get to keep my job.
been looking at the news and it seems that we are only seeing the tip of the iceburg.
i can see at least 25,000 casualtys.
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I agree from the earthquake and tsunami alone, the other iceberg is the nuclear issue - the blogs coming out of Japan seem to paint a very grave picture.....
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I wasn't going to mention the war, but I see the Japanese prime minister has beaten me to it.
It's a reasonable analogy in some respects, a great deal of damage has been done instantly to his country.
Not sure if alluding to the nuclear bombs will sit well with the Americans, or even our lot.
Who cares?
Well, the Japanese should if they want international assistance.
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>> It's a reasonable analogy in some respects, a great deal of damage has been done
>> instantly to his country.
What are you smoking? Its done nothing of the sort.
>> Not sure if alluding to the nuclear bombs will sit well with the Americans, or
>> even our lot.
Pure unadulterated garbage. You are making this carp up.
>> Who cares?
>>
>> Well, the Japanese should if they want international assistance.
For gods sake sober up.
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...What are you smoking? Its done nothing of the sort...
Pictures of a flattened town I saw looked like a bomb had hit it.
What do you think the Japanese prime minister meant when he said his country faces its greatest challenge since the war?
Don't tell me, he doesn't know what he's talking about either.
Oh, and the Japanese don't need their friends internationally.
That's alright, then.
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> Oh, and the Japanese don't need their friends internationally.
>>
>> That's alright, then.
They do, and what's been said by the PM wont effect it.
I was berating you, deservedly, for thinking that people would be upset, or resentful, by the PM relating what's happened to Japan to the events of WW2
You have been reading tatty journalism for far too long.
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...I was berating you, deservedly, for thinking that people would be upset, or resentful, by the PM relating what's happened to Japan to the events of WW2...
I was raising the possibility that offence may be taken.
Let's just say some folk in America take the Japanese PM's remarks as a reference to the atom bombs.
We don't know what those Americans will think.
If it were me, I would think the Japanese PM meant no offence.
But I'm not an American.
The relationship of a country with its servicemen and with the killing carried out in their name is not a simple one.
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Let's just say some folk in America take the Japanese PM's remarks as a reference to the atom bombs.
Fortunately decisions will be taken by politicians and professionals who have moved on.
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....and another thing, the devastation caused to civilians by the atom bombs are universally accepted, yes even by the Americans, as having wrought and visited an unimaginable horror on the Japanese and any nation would be foolish to imagine that this horror is deeply embedded in the psyche of Japanese.
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Can a nation ever move on from something like that?
Pat
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It's more than the atom bombs iffy - the home front in Japan was a particularly hard place to be between '42 and 45 - and the atom bombs made it whole lot more after 46 - The Japanese more than most know the consequences of near total destruction of their infrastructure. I think that the Americans have matured more than you give them credit for. Japan has, after all, has become the paragon of capitalism since 1945. They'll get the assistance they need as most nations have moved on.
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...It's more than the atom bombs iffy - the home front in Japan was a particularly hard place to be between '42 and 45...
As was the UK.
Unlike Zero, I don't know precisely what the Japanese prime minister meant, but the flattened city is very likely to have put him in mind of the atom bombs.
I can't see how anyone in Japan could mention the Second World War without bringing the atom bombs into the minds of listeners.
It was not the only event of the war, but it was the major one in Japan.
Yes, it's history, but we don't know how the Japanese view what happened to them.
The prime minister must have been aiming for a certain resonance, otherwise why mention the war?
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"Well, the Japanese should if they want international assistance."
Or even International Rescue.
tinyurl.com/69xvyxt
Why has nobody thought of calling these guys?
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>> Or even International Rescue.
>>
>> tinyurl.com/69xvyxt
>>
>> Why has nobody thought of calling these guys?
The Tsunami overwhelmed Tracy Island. Jeff and the boys are dead.
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This site takes a rather more dispassionate look at the evolving 'challenges' with the nuclear reactors than the media:-
www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/tsunamiupdate01.html
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"i can see at least 25,000 casualtys. "
Yes. It is horrific. The earthquake was nothing against that tsunami. I've heard of people being rescued 16kms out to sea. Presumably the wave came in and then retreated taking people with it.
I can't imagine that they will ever find everyone under that debris and mud.
I saw the same clip on Friday again and again and no matter how many times I saw it I was willing that wall of water to stop. Can you imagine looking up from your screen and seeing 30 feet of water coming at you? I guess some people never even knew what hit them.
John
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I don't think the Nuclear fall out is going to be major issue from the reports I have read. I am sure Japans nuclear plants would be designed to avoid a Chernobyl.
That said the situation is very serious and it will effect us all in some way.
I just wonder why they didn't predict this earlier. I would have thought a nation like Japan would have been watching what the plates underneath were doing very carefully.
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>> I just wonder why they didn't predict this earlier. I would have thought a nation
>> like Japan would have been watching what the plates underneath were doing very carefully.
>>
I don't think earthquake prediction is an exact, or any sort of science, Ratts. Particularly under the ocean.
Last edited by: Old Navy on Sun 13 Mar 11 at 17:52
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I would have thought it would be by now but my knowledge of tectonic plates and geology only goes back to higher tear GCSE Geography and Science so it has been a long long time since I studied it.
I suppose as you say it is very hard to do, even computer modelling won't work properly because the data fed into it would still be largely guess work.
The only positive thing is at least Japan is a rich nation and will be able to cope with this better than many poorer countries.
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>> I suppose as you say it is very hard to do, even computer modelling won't
>> work properly because the data fed into it would still be largely guess work.
The problem is they know it will, they just dont know when or how hard. The plates there are always moving, Japan has earthquakes nearly every week, so the assumption is that pressure is constantly beling relieved.
Much different on the other side of the Pacific, where the plates are not always moving, and they know the presssure is building up, and the plates will unstick in a massive way one day.
>> The only positive thing is at least Japan is a rich nation and will be
>> able to cope with this better than many poorer countries.
Indeed, and were well prepared before hand, considering this is the biggest for centuries, there is no much earthquake damage - Its the Tsunami thats undone them.
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>> I don't think earthquake prediction is an exact, or any sort of science, Ratts. Particularly
>> under the ocean.
Very difficult to predict exactly when it's going to happen. Early warning devices can only give a signal a moment before the actual event. You can't physically look at a cross section of plate and see what's going on. I'd still like to know how the animals reacted - they can usually be a more reliable indicator.
The san andreas fault is likely to rumble at some point. I watched a programme with Dr Ian Stuart (geologist) as he visited California. He said that they had prepared 'safe' zones for the public in the event of a tsunami. The only problem was, according to him that they were far too close to the shoreline and the potential effects of one were being completely underestimated. When I see the film footage of the Japanese one, I can understand the concern.
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"Meanwhile, offers of help to the Japanese government have been pouring in from across the world. Even the poor southern Afghan city of Kandahar is chipping in - its mayor has said it is donating $50,000 to the "brothers and sisters" of Japan. "I know $50,000 is not a lot of money for a country like Japan, but it is a show of appreciation from the Kandahar people," Ghulam Haidar Hamidi told the Reuters news agency."
Fair dos really.
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>> I saw the same clip on Friday again and again and no matter how many
>> times I saw it I was willing that wall of water to stop. Can you
>> imagine looking up from your screen and seeing 30 feet of water coming at you?
>> I guess some people never even knew what hit them.
>>
>> John
>>
It was horrific, and of course it's highly likely that many of those cars, houses and ships being tossed around like toys would have contained their occupants.
Just a dreadful scenario all round.:-(
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>>i must be clairvoyant or similar. i had 40percent of my investment fund exposed towards japan
I have a fairly material amount of dosh in the Japan index and last week did my wife's ISA for this year with half of it it the Japan index. The last bit hasn't been dealt yet - I'm undecided whether to stop the purchase, which is probably possible, so I'll see what happens tonight when the Nikkei opens, if it does - clearly there's a big upset of some kind pending but after Kobe the yen went up on the repatriation of Japanese with their currency, which for a UK investor offset the fall in Japanese stocks.
At least I only have money at stake - the Japs have more to worry about.
That's one reason we don't have all eggs in the same basket I suppose.
Last edited by: Manatee on Sun 13 Mar 11 at 18:12
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The stuff I read point to short term hits but potentially huge rewards as they busy themselves with a re-build - which they surely will.
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Indeed, Much renewal, and the Bank of Japan is already discussing the government sponsored business loans.
Last edited by: Zero on Sun 13 Mar 11 at 18:23
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i have been reading and on hte phone all day seeing if any traders who know better than me can see a big fiscal upside for our trading environment and i take the view its not worth my risk with the groups money.
i have had one member call today asking if it was worth him giving more money for the pot and to speculate on the japanese disaster but it leave a bitter taste for me and i dont know how to maximise profits from just using the nik as a general investment vechicle.
i buy commodities mostly gold, oil and wheat and their futures and only have 10percent in specific stocks and shares.
the stange thing is that all my partners knew we had money in japan but none have phoned to ask me how badly we got bitten.
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there will be a massive amount to be made from this in the longer term but we have no idea where the money is coming from and who will be doing the builing and infrastructure work so can make any money without big risk from ploughing money in shares of companeys that wont get a contract.
luckly ive been riding high on gold and oil for a while now so im okey for a while before i have to sell and work out whats next for the fund
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Ahhh that's better, back to how we can make a buck out of someone else's misfortune.
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>> back to how we can make a buck out of someone else's misfortune.
In fairness to nyx2, smokie, that's what commodity and stock market traders do among other things. 'It isn't personal', so to speak. Business, like government, has a cold-hearted side. That doesn't mean all businessmen and politicians are psychopaths lacking human feeling though. Only some are like that.
As after the War (note uppercase), there will be a massive reconstruction and redevelopment effort in which new fortunes will be made, mostly one hopes by Japanese individuals. Nothing new about it.
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You might also say that their stock market collapsing wouldn't be very helpful to Japanese firms needing to raise capital. There'll be no equity or debt investors if there's no prospect of a return.
I hope for their sakes thought that they can get it going. The Japanese government has laboured for 20 years to get growth into their economy with limited success despite negligible interest rates and massive government borrowing.
It's impossible to ignore the financial implications, callous as it sounds.
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without there stock market they are in huge trouble, even possible to revert back to the 1930's japan.
i hope it all gets sorted quickly and the world keeps trading with them but i wont be surprised if there is trouble ahead
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>> Ahhh that's better, back to how we can make a buck out of someone else's
>> misfortune.
>>
It was aways thus - Adam Smith famously wrote:
"Let us suppose that the great empire of China, with all its myriads of inhabitants, was suddenly swallowed up by an earthquake, and let us consider how a man of humanity in Europe, who had no sort of connexion with that part of the world, would be affected upon receiving intelligence of this dreadful calamity. He would, I imagine, first of all, express very strongly his sorrow for the misfortune of that unhappy people, he would make many melancholy reflections upon the precariousness of human life, and the vanity of all the labours of man, which could thus be annihilated in a moment. He would too, perhaps, if he was a man of speculation, enter into many reasonings concerning the effects which this disaster might produce upon the commerce of Europe, and the trade and business of the world in general. And when all this fine philosophy was over, when all these humane sentiments had been once fairly expressed, he would pursue his business or his pleasure, take his repose or his diversion, with the same ease and tranquillity, as if no such accident had happened. "
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One thing the Japanese proved after WW2 (and similarly in West Germany) and following a kick start from the Americans that they worked themselves out of devastation.
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Spectacular, and horrifying as this event is, Its really not on the scale of WW2.
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Still going to take a big reconstruction effort though Zeddo. What I dread most at the moment is the years of droning we are in for from rabid puritanical unrealistic anti-nuclear wonks.
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>> What I dread most at
>> the moment is the years of droning we are in for from rabid puritanical unrealistic
>> anti-nuclear wonks.
Too late AC, the droning has started, even a congressman in the States has jumped om the bandwagon
BBC
However, possible implications outside Japan are already beginning to emerge.
In Germany, scene of a big anti-nuclear protest on Saturday, Environment Minister Norbert Roettgen suggested that safety systems at nuclear plants would be analysed anew in the light of the Fukushima incident.
"This happened in a country with very high safety standards... the fundamental question of whether we can guard against all dangers is now open again, and we will address that question," he said.
In the UK, the Stop Hinckley pressure group has called for a halt to a proposed new reactor at Hinckley Point in southwest England, on safety grounds.
Environment groups are beginning to feature Fukushima in their energy communications - and whatever actually happens at the site, it is likely to become a major card in campaigns to promote renewable energy above nuclear.
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i think japan will need outside money, most likely from america.
if i thought that sending a few £ would do any good then i would but like all these disaster projects a lot of money goes in to corrupt pockets so i'll keep my money until i know for sure it will be used for the good of the japanese people and not their leaders
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The triple blow of an earthquake, tsunami and nuclear accident is set to damage the world's third largest economy possibly more deeply and for longer than initially expected, analysts have said. Following the 1995 Kobe earthquake, Japan's economy shrank by 2%, followed by a V-shaped recovery. But if the power supply is affected nationwide for a long period , it could lead to a sharp contraction of production. Oil prices are also significantly higher than after Kobe, the Yen is stronger, and the public finances are weaker. The last factor could lead to emergency tax hikes.
From BBC "live" website.
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after reading all day i would expect a 15 percent contraction but wouldnt be surprised at at least double that. they have few reserves so will have to borrow but will have no way of paying it back for at least 10yrs minimum. i think they'll need £50 billion now and probavbaly anouther 250 billion in next 5yrs. thats before we know how bad it is, so wouldbe surprised if the cost is 3 trillion dollars or more.
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The three Horsemen of the Apocalypse have ridden through that country....
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>> after reading all day i would expect a 15 percent contraction but wouldnt be surprised
>>
The world is now two markets India-China and the rest of the World.
There will be falls across both those markets, with small yo-yo bounces for a few weeks to come, before the markets settle at low level for 2011. Shock, over-reaction, followed by aftershocks, followed by minor tremors for months to come.
UK, Europe and USA, all will be hit. You and me are all in the stock market, directly or indirectly, and you can't escape the tsunami.
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>> The triple blow of an earthquake, tsunami and nuclear accident is set to damage the
>> world's third largest economy possibly more deeply and for longer than initially expected, analysts have
>> said. Following the 1995 Kobe earthquake, Japan's economy shrank by 2%, followed by a V-shaped
>> recovery. But if the power supply is affected nationwide for a long period , it
>> could lead to a sharp contraction of production.
I think it wont be as bad as predicted. They have lost three reactors for sure (they will never be on line again) but the rest are ok. Japan is an authoritarian regime, they will get the others back on line asap despite the risk. Little other major manufacturing has been affected.
I read somewhere that the stock market Bulls are in the ascendency, with returns elsewhere being so poor that they are prepared to embrace and use risk.
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#
1907: Toyota, the world's top carmaker, Nissan and Honda are all suspending production at all their plants in Japan, starting Monday. When production will resume is uncertain. Toyota has 12 factories in the country, while Nissan has three. Honda said the decision would halt its production of 4,000 vehicles a day.
Not all industry Zero...
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Because they have no power. Its all about the power, and believe me, shortcuts will be taken to get power to the plants. Even if the workers have none when they get home.
And how much of Japans production is outside the country?
Last edited by: Zero on Sun 13 Mar 11 at 20:05
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According to someone interviewed on Sky world gas prices will rise due to Japan's need because of the reduction in nuclear power plants, but oil will fall because their crippled industry won't require as much.
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What was all that cobblers about North Korea launching a nuclear attack on Japan?
Surely no one imagines that the Mekon is really in charge? Wicked old generals are, and they want to enjoy their power - based on having a huge obedient standing army-, not have their nuclear sabre-rattling shown to be the empty threat it is in reality by, er, drawing the sabre. They aren't crazy, they're just rather horrid.
Tchah!
Last edited by: Armel Coussine on Sun 13 Mar 11 at 20:09
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"What was all that cobblers about North Korea launching a nuclear attack on Japan? "
Instead of which they used their secret weapon and no-one even suspects them.
John
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>> What was all that cobblers about North Korea launching a nuclear attack on Japan?
>>
>> Surely no one imagines that the Mekon is really in charge? Wicked old generals are,
>> and they want to enjoy their power - based on having a huge obedient standing
>> army-, not have their nuclear sabre-rattling shown to be the empty threat it is in
>> reality by, er, drawing the sabre. They aren't crazy, they're just rather horrid.
This is the same people who have drilled huge tunnels motorway wide, and installed train tracks in others under the north south border.
The madmen there really think they can win a war.
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They can: a land war against any of their near neighbours except China, so long as no one else interferes. That possibility is the fly in the ointment. Meanwhile, the bigger your bargaining chips, the more frightening you look, the better.
They aren't crazy. They're just nasty.
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And that's why USS Ronald Reagan was so usefully on hand yesterday - proving to SK and Japan that they're not on their own.
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>> They can: a land war against any of their near neighbours except China, so long
>> as no one else interferes. That possibility is the fly in the ointment. Meanwhile, the
>> bigger your bargaining chips, the more frightening you look, the better.
>>
>> They aren't crazy. They're just nasty.
They think they have the nuclear protection of China. Ie we can chuck em about, but nothing will come back. They were saved that way before, and think it will happen again.
Last edited by: Zero on Sun 13 Mar 11 at 20:41
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Zeddo, I am sure they know exactly what China will and won't do for them. Wouldn't be at all surprised if the Chinese smack their bottoms and bang their heads together from time to time.
Of course they have their uses to China. Any toerag with a pit bull apparently hardly under control could understand that one.
(Don't imagine I'm having a go at Fifi here. I'm sure she's adorable).
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She is, pitbull she aint.
You should see one of my Malinois tho!
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north korea will do something eventually as they think they have nothing to lose and their neighbors are very wealthy and have all they need.
the old north generals will want to show they have have the power to threaten the south and they will use that power and may attack in the next decade. if china was out the picture then usa would flatten north korea by suplying the south with new weapons.
thats a future war no one can win i think.
south koreas stocks have been a little wobbly but are doing ok for now but not something i'd want to invest much in.
japan will get there power generation back up if they can but we dont know the extent of damage yet. ive been quouting figures but it'll be weeks and months before we know anything useful.
will keep an eye on the markets and see what the reactrion is this week
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I am not totally naive about how the world's markets work, but there is something that just doesn't sit right with me.
What has happened in Japan will cost Billions to fix, billions will have been lost already. But now we have speculators eager to see when the markets will open and how they can make a quick buck.
Yes I can see how if Joe Bloggs construction from Glasgow is given a £100m contract to rebuild a town in Japan, then that is extra money for Joe Bloggs. But that money needs to come out of Japan's economy.
So Japan needs to raise more money to pay for repairs and rebuild - so where does that come from? If it borrows, then it costs. If it tries to raise the revenue through taxes, it will hit company profits and individuals.
So how can investors make money out of this?
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Japanese firms are repatriating cash - the Yen is climbing strongly against other currencies - Dollar is near an all time low...
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Am I the only one who's unable to pronounce the word Tsunami?
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Am I the only one who had never heard of the word tsunami until a few years ago?
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IIRC 'tidal wave' used to be used (incorrectly) a lot more, then 'tsunami' started taking over. Think it was more than a few years ago though.
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As a football fan, tsunami for me will long be associated with Rodney Marsh getting the sack from Sky Sports.
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>> Am I the only one who's unable to pronounce the word Tsunami?
>>
I use Soo-naa-mee.
If its wrong, tough.
Last edited by: Old Navy on Mon 14 Mar 11 at 07:26
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I read about them in a Reader's Digest many years ago (sleepless night) the frightening article stuck in my mind more than any other - It's a Roman alphabet version of a Japanese word I think from memory..
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Is it me or is TEPCO's company logo a little like a three eared Micky Mouse ?
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TEPCO
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BBC pronounce it right I suppose, I don't know what grounds I have for saying that given their corporate incompetence on pronouncing native British words.
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Pictures on TV yesterday and some of today's newpapers, showing an old gentleman being rescued, 12 miles out to sea, floating on the roof of his house. Unluckily his wife is missing but I guess he will count himself lucky to have survived.
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>> Pictures on TV yesterday and some of today's newpapers
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12727282
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"The capital Tokyo is also still experiencing regular aftershocks, amid warnings that another powerful earthquake is likely to strike very soon."
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12729138
First I've heard of this - is that a scientific prediction?
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On Andrew Marr's show they were saying that it may not be a good time to be living on or near the tectonic plates around the Pacific just at the moment... Perhaps time to leave San Fransisco?!
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Wonder whether the US have built some Nukes in er....risky areas around that.
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This one on the outskirts of LA.
tinyurl.com/6anlrrq
It is so dry there that there is no need for "hall/cladding" to house the 2x1200MW turbine-generators (originals were built at GEC Trafford Park).
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Apparently the earth moved on its axis by 10 inches.
That's nothing new for my wife of course but it also explains why I clipped the door mirror while I was reversing into the garage.
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Could make things difficult if you are shaving as well!
Makes me glad I live where I do...
Last edited by: hobby on Mon 14 Mar 11 at 16:23
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Two questions;
1. what was achieved by sending George Allegiallagie....., thing, y'know who I mean, half way around the world and standing him in front of a ship on top of a lorry to report the news?
2. Forgetting the tsunami for a moment, why do you see Japanese people wearing face masks so often in tv news? Are they esepecially sensistive to cold sores? What's that about?
John
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Its a japanese thing, they think they will catch nasty diseases. The japanese tourists in london even wear them
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I've been given to understand (by a British ex-pat friend who has been in Japan for 20 years), that they actually wear them to prevent themeselves from infecting other people unwittingly with airborn germs.
An example of manners which I'm sure Outraged Middle England would be impressed with, and an example I'm sure they'd be delighted to follow.
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Japan's coastline may have shifted by as much as 4m (13ft) to the east following Friday's 8.9 Magnitude earthquake, according to experts.
Data from the country's Geonet network of around 1,200 GPS monitoring stations suggest a large displacement following the massive quake.
Dr Roger Musson from the British Geological Survey (BGS) told BBC News the movement observed following the quake was "in line with what you get when you have an earthquake this big".
The quake probably shifted Earth on its axis by about 6.5 inches (16.5cm) and caused the planet to rotate somewhat faster, shortening the length of the day by about 1.8 millionths of a second.
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>> Two questions;
>> 1. what was achieved by sending George Allegiallagie....., thing, y'know who I mean, half way
>> around the world and standing him in front of a ship on top of a
>> lorry to report the news?
Did you ever see Chris Morris's "The Day Today"? It spoofed the TV news by using whizz-bang graphics and all sorts of style-over-content type stuff, and was quite funny at the time. Problem is, it no longer looks like a parody.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Day_Today
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Oh yes, 'twere good.
The trouble with parody is, it often comes true.
John
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for parody to work, it has to have basis in truth.
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Youve been watching Hi di Hi.
John
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Worse, I went to Butlins.
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"Youve been watching Hi di Hi."
For Ruth Madoc. And I still would.
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We know that if its warm and has a pulse, its a given.
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>> for parody to work, it has to have basis in truth.
That's the problem with 'Day Today' though - it's become reality.
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In fairness the BBC coverage has been very good - I groaned at poor old George's backdrop yesterday though. The live blog page has been more useful, removed as it is from the hacks' flowery prose. This is a huge event and needs the comprehensive coverage that the BBC is giving it. Apparently the locals are trusting it more than their own local coverage. I dipped into the World Service the other night - superb unflowered coverage.
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The WS will now come into its own, nawt better than radio when leccy goes out.
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>>, nawt better than radio when leccy goes out<<
And the birth rate will go up!
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Don't be daft. The BBC is detached from reality and and has a serious left wing bias.
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I hope they don't have a DVLA type SORN policy.
John
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...The BBC is detached from reality and and has a serious left wing bias...
Sadly, you think that's satire.
The BBC is divorced from financial reality - any inquiry will show you that - expenses, for example.
There is left-wing bias, saying there isn't is akin to me saying the Daily Mail has no right-wing bias.
For what it's worth, I would sack everyone involved in 'projects' such as we've read about elsewhere, and put the money into things the BBC should be doing, such as the World Service.
(Dragging the thread back towards the Japanese tsunami.)
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>> Sadly, you think that's satire.
Don't tell me what I think. I think it's sarcasm, as it goes. I thought you'd approve given your record of using it.
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For goodness sake Alanovic, I think we all know your views but you have to accept we don't all have to share them.
If you find it like red rag to a bull to read an opposing view then a discussion forum may not be the best place for you.
Pat
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Japan Tsunami....Volume 2. - nyx2k
