yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/51511-voting-intention-lab-24-ref-25-con-21-2-3-feb-2025
I think this is the first time that they've led in the polls. The GE is far away however I don't think they are going away any time soon. Perhaps a few dozen MPs next time around?
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I still think they're nothing without Farage.
If, and he has long history of fallings out, there's a fracture from him the rest of them'll be fighting like rats in a sack.
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The world has spent many years and millions of lives trying to defeat dictators, and yet here we are with Reform apparently leading the polls? What on earth is going on?
Reform Ltd. is not a political party where members get to have a say at conference. It is a Ltd. Company where Farage owns 60% of the shares. So what he says goes. A dictatorship.
And then there's the economic policies. Truss/Kwarteng were rightly ridiculed during their 49 days of power, and yet Reform promise much more of the same. Big increase spending on police and defence but lower taxes. How does that work? Answer = big cuts to the NHS, or privatise it. And yet I thought the NHS was a sacred institution? Plus stopping the immigration that we have become dependent on for many of the menial jobs in society.
It just doesn't add up!
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>> I still think they're nothing without Farage.
I largely agree with you.
>> If, and he has long history of fallings out, there's a fracture from him the
>> rest of them'll be fighting like rats in a sack.
Farage thrives on disruption but he does have staying power. He first contested a parliamentary seat in 1994 30 years ago. He was also a Euro MP for 20 years. He resigned from UKIP only when the Brexit vote was won.
A split Tory and Reform vote delivered a huge Labour majority and increased LibDem seats in the 2024 election. The result may otherwise have been a much smaller Labour majority or possibly a hung parliament - despite Tory chaos and an open electoral goal Labour vote share was poor.
The future is dominated by whether Tory and Reform resolve their differences. Too soon to predict whether there will be:
- agreement at a leadership level, or
- Tory party adopting more "Reform" type policies attracting deserters back, or
- Tory voters defecting en-mass to Reform through inadequate Tory leadership, or
- still split in 4 years opening the door for another Labour victory
A Reform majority in 4 years time is not inconceivable - particularly given the disappointing performance and poll ratings of the Labour party in the first 7 months.
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There is a chance that Reform will be in coalition in the next Scottish Parliament.
Good chance SNP and Labour will get similar seats so SNP are clear they would not go into partnership with Reform.
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>>A Reform majority in 4 years time is not inconceivable - particularly given the disappointing performance and poll ratings of the Labour party in the first 7 months.
i) It's the final 7 months that matters, do all the bad stuff early on and, with luck, things look a lot better at the end of the first term. That said their presentation seems to be fairly rubbish.
ii) Badenough with her hardline immigration policy seems to want to leap frog over Reform to the far right. While that might attract some lost voters back, it will lose them a load of centrists and could sinish the COnservatives, leaving Reform as the principal not-very-nice party but preserve the split in the right wing vote. OTOH Jenrick seems to be hinting at a merger, which could conceivably beat Labour.
All this is a bit too broad brush. Many voters I'm sure are neither lefties or righties, but a mixture of the two - they like the NHS, their social housing if they have it, their DLA/PIP, and the idea of taking trains and utilities into public ownership but they are xenophobes and would like the death penalty back.
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ii) Badenough with her hardline immigration policy seems to want to leap frog over Reform
>> to the far right. While that might attract some lost voters back, it will lose
>> them a load of centrists and could sinish the COnservatives, leaving Reform as the principal
>> not-very-nice party but preserve the split in the right wing vote. OTOH Jenrick seems to
>> be hinting at a merger, which could conceivably beat Labour.
I think Labour need to look over their shoulders as well, I think Reform came 2nd in about 100 seats nearly all of those were Lab seats.
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>>I think Labour need to look over their shoulders as well, I think Reform came 2nd in about 100 seats nearly all of those were Lab seats.
You're absolutely right, if the Tories could nick the Red Wall, so could Reform especially if Badenoch takes the Tories beyond the Pale.
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You're absolutely right, if the Tories could nick the Red Wall, so could Reform especially
>> if Badenoch takes the Tories beyond the Pale.
>>
I think the red wall will be a wide open three way toss up come the next election.They also seem to be doing far better than ukip etc did in wales and scotland, places they've never really gained very many votes.
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"i) It's the final 7 months that matters, do all the bad stuff early on and, with luck, things look a lot better at the end of the first term"
I think this goes for the opposition too in some respects - sound out what will and won't be acceptable long before policies are set in stone.
Last edited by: smokie on Fri 7 Feb 25 at 21:37
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>> I still think they're nothing without Farage.
>>
>> If, and he has long history of fallings out, there's a fracture from him the
>> rest of them'll be fighting like rats in a sack.
>>
I think that's right, once he left the various one man band parties they didn't seem to do much. However where do Reform's votes go even if he left?* I don't think many of their voters would go back to the main two parties. They also seem popular with those under 25, I don't think they have any loyalty to the main parties.
* I think he owns 2/3 of Reform.
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Before the next GE both Labour and the Conservatives will have a lot to do to convince voters that they're listening and can be trusted. Being in power, it should be easier for Labour but it seems that they're on a suicide mission at the moment.
That will leave Reform as the 'not them' party promising to sort out immigration, wokery, policing, the justice system and energy costs. Their biggest problem will be recruiting candidates with sufficient gravitas.
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tinyurl.com/preview/26488a7h
A screen shot from an MRP poll based on the latest polls.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Sat 8 Feb 25 at 12:41
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My immediate thoughts on that were oh SNP taking some Welsh seats:)
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>> That will leave Reform as the 'not them' party promising to sort out immigration, wokery,
>> policing, the justice system and energy costs.
>>
Populist promises that are easy to say when in opposition but not so easily to deliver when in power. In my opinion, their policies are not being scrutinised enough in the press, which is mostly right-wing in flavour and owned by tax exiles these days! As I said above, their economic policies are Truss on steroids, and that didn't end well!
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Lib Dems got 3.5m votes and 70+ seats
Reform got 4.6m and got 5 seats
Labour had 9.8m and got 411 seats
Tories had 6.8m and got 121 seats
It's not just votes but the concentration of the votes in limited areas that wins seats
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>> Lib Dems got 3.5m votes and 70+ seats
>> Reform got 4.6m and got 5 seats
>>
>> Labour had 9.8m and got 411 seats
>> Tories had 6.8m and got 121 seats
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>> It's not just votes but the concentration of the votes in limited areas that wins
>> seats
With a predominantly 2 party system first past the post works OK with the benefit (usually) of a clear outcome. It was never very fair to the LibDems.
The last election result with 4 significant competing parties, combined with tactical voting, exposed a real weakness in a Labour victory setting a record (I think) with the largest number seats with the smallest popular vote.
A more serious review of the UK electoral system is needed. There is a fragmented opposition key to any properly functioning democracy. This is purely principal driven - is has nothing to do with whether Labour, Tory, Reform or LibDem should be in charge - it could be any next time around!
Last edited by: Terry on Mon 10 Feb 25 at 13:09
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It's recognised that Labour ran it's campaign very efficiently, in predicting baseline intentions and directing it's resources.
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Reform lead in the polls - Bromptonaut
