Interesting discussions over the future of Syrian refugees (prob wrong word but never mind!) in Germany and whether they ought to be allowed to continue residence in Germany despite the events which gave rise to their visa being superseded.
I wonder how that will pan out here if/when the Ukraine is sorted out.
Last edited by: smokie on Thu 12 Dec 24 at 11:43
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Some may well want to return to their home. I imagine it must be quite a wrench to leave everything behind.
Seeing the images of that prison on the news is gut-wrenching. Of course similar goes on elsewhere. I understand why people fled.
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Indeed a number will wish to return. However, the situation there might turn into another IRAQ or Libya. Certainly not helped by the Israeli's deciding to intervene, I feel they will make things worse, but it certainly fits into Netenyahoo's plan to keep Israel in a war state and maintain his grip on power.
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Although the Dictator has fallen the future prospects are uncertain.
The rebels have taken Aleppo and Damascus but other areas are under the control of different factions including the Kurds.
Some areas may be safe for return but others almost certainly will not be.
Wait/see I think.
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I fear you might be right. The Golani/Jawlani bloke has made a lot of inclusive noises but as an ex-Jihadist/Al Qaeda terrorist it might drift towards a Taliban-type set up.
There's also the question of which foreign government if any wants to get in there and pull the strings. Trump will probably want to stay well clear.
The new government will no doubt be inviting contributions. It could be in Germany's and Britain's interest to help a tolerant new regime to help reverse the flow of refugees. Although Turkey must have a few million displaced Syrians too.
No doubt Putin has been revelling in Britain and the EU being the destination for millions of refugees and he might be happy to see another load of fanatics or despots.
Israel (Netanyahu) seems to want to reset the whole of the Middle East as well.
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>> Turkey must have a few million displaced Syrians too.
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They do. Mostly in camps. They were on some documentary a while back. Mobile office type affairs.
Syrians running their own schools (open to all ages), medical facilities etc.
Of course it was likely to be a "show" site. Disconcertingly, one could hear the shells landing in the distance.
>> Israel (Netanyahu) seems to want to reset the whole of the Middle East as well.
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If he pushes too far, a well armed Arab country or coalition of countries may push back.
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There are about 14m displaced Syrians - ~7m internally, ~5m in adjacent countries, and ~2m in Europe (most in Germany).
Israeli action disabling Syrian military infrastructure is a sound bit of opportunism - it limits the future threat to Israel, disables chemical weapons (benefits all). With Russia out of the way they can act with impunity.
What emerges post Assad is unclear.
The best outcome would be the establishment of a stable government following properly democratic elections. Seems optimistic given previous Middle East experiences
More likely IMHO is months or possibly years of internal conflict as different groups try and win control. An Afghan outcome is (sadly) plausible.
Third option is the active involvement or support of a third party - China is a possible candidate to increase their global reach into a new area. This could promote stable outcomes.
I don't expect the US to get involved given their track record in the area with Trump as POTUS.
The UK is little better than the US and should watch and wait - only volunteer humanitarian aid.
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I suspect it could head the same way as Afghanistan. I hear female judges have been ordered to hand over their cases.
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>> I suspect it could head the same way as Afghanistan. I hear female judges have
>> been ordered to hand over their cases.
Sometimes I think we are heading back to the Middle Ages. Is war and oppression the natural state of our species? (Rhetorical question lest you spend too much time on it!)
I think the Syrians in exile will be staying elsewhere if you're correct.
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>>I think the Syrians in exile will be staying elsewhere
It was reported the queues at the Syrian/Lebanon border were both way. Seems it could be a Shia/Sunni thing. Let's hope it doesn't develop into the Pakistan/India partition type problem.
BBC have reported parliament and the constitution have now been suspended!
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>> BBC have reported parliament and the constitution have now been suspended!
laughable, there was never a representative parliament & constitution in a recognisable form anyway. It was "Assad says"........
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>> More likely IMHO is months or possibly years of internal conflict as different groups try
>> and win control. An Afghan outcome is (sadly) plausible.
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Highly likely. The middle east does not do democracy, whoever runs it will do so on the basis that their God is better than everyone elses and that gives them the right to treat the infidels as badly as they want.
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>> The UK is little better than the US and should watch and wait - only
>> volunteer humanitarian aid.
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The only sensible approach, along with make friends with the winners. Trying to police the world only ends in tears.
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Merkel gave sanctuary to around 1.5m Syrians.
It turns out that the vast majority are "inactive" - neither Working or in Education.
Whilst many Syrians may want to return to Syria the life in Germany, for the vast majority, are enjoying a higher standard of living in Europe rather than return to living in deprivation and hunger in their native land.
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Hope the rebels stop in Syria and are not bolstered by their success and try the same on the seemingly peaceful Jordan or Saudi Arabia etc.
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Syria and Germany - zippy
