Raise the stars and stripes, play the star spangled banner, hand on heart, light fireworks?
Noooo. General Election day. Anyone want to bet on the Tories not getting a pasting?
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Labour 14 to 1 on to win a majority.
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It was mooted it might be during PMQs so I watched that, but it seems there will be a 17:00 announcement.
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Independence Day! From Tories.
Interestingly this is when Scottish schools are on holiday. Would they ever hold an election during English school holidays?
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>> Interestingly this is when Scottish schools are on holiday. Would they ever hold an election
>> during English school holidays?
Whats that got to do with it?
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>> Whats that got to do with it?
If people are on holiday then voting in person is a problem.
It's not difficult to sort out a postal vote though.
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>> >> Whats that got to do with it?
>>
>> If people are on holiday then voting in person is a problem.
So? Its not just Labour party or SNP voters who go away. Someone is just peddling conspiracy theories.
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It’s not a conspiracy theory. Just a question.
Many schools are used as polling stations.
Many people are away on holiday.
They wouldn’t do it when the English school holidays are on. You know that.
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> Euros also on of course.
It's the playoffs of the last 16 in July, not something Scotland will have to worry about.
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>>
>> It's the playoffs of the last 16 in July........
>>
>>
... Conservative MPs...?
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Exchange rate improved today…just bought Euros on Revolut €1.173/£.
Come in handy September on my big annual trip. Coincidence ?
Last edited by: legacylad on Wed 22 May 24 at 19:27
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>... Conservative MPs...?
Might not have enough to field a side.
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>> They wouldn’t do it when the English school holidays are on. You know that.
Didnt have you down as paranoid. You'll be telling us next Covid was a sasanach plot.
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You don't need conspiracy theory, it's fact that the Tories will be nowhere in Scotland but it's just possible that the oldies (the least unlikely to vote for them) will be at home (pensioners never go away in the school holidays) while the younger folk might well be off.
I doubt if they are that bright. However I can't see any logical reason for the announcement today, from Sunk's point of view. Their ratings are awful and had he gone longer there would have been a chance at least of some improvement or good news - such as them actually sending somebody to Rwanda.
I guess they think are have prepared, and that the sooner they go better the chance they have caught Labour on the hop. I'd be amazed if that is the case.
The announcement was unexpectedly enjoyable. He waited for the rain to abate, then a couple of minutes into his peroration came the deluge. He looked like a drowned rat. Then Steve Bray fired up his amps and speakers, playing "Things can only get better" from the Downing Street gates with immaculate timing.
Starmer's been pretty smart so far. I hope that presages well. After the 2019 defeat most commentators said it would take two terms to make Labour electable. I hope we will now see some more detail on some of the proposals but I don't think we will see any big new announcements just yet - The Tories' plan is basically to pretend they have a plan, talk pompously about security, and to attack Labour on everything. I think Starmer will continue to be somewhat cautious with promises.
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>..from Sunk's point of view.
Slip of the tongue Manatee?
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>> I guess they think are have prepared, and that the sooner they go better the
>> chance they have caught Labour on the hop. I'd be amazed if that is the
>> case.
The party that might be caught on the hop is Reform. They're committed to having a candidate in every seat but there's still a lot without a prospective candidate. Polling out today, obviously legwork done before yesterday, puts them on around 12% with those votes pretty well exclusively coming from Conservatives.
If Reform have been wrongfooted to the point they cannot select enough people, or they select people with history of racism or other bad stuff, they look amateur.
I think they're holding a press conference the morning. Question is will the blessed Nigel stand and if so where?
My money would be on Clacton.
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>> I think they're holding a press conference the morning. Question is will the blessed Nigel
>> stand and if so where?
Answer, he won't.
More important to him to get The Donald back in the White House.
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>..it seems there will be a 17:00 announcement.
Perfect timing by the weather Gods. As soon as Sunak started his robotic spiel* a little black cloud gave him a sendoff.
* Any normal person would have cracked a joke and called for a brolly but he just carried on as if he'd been practicing it for days and daren't stop.
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>Après moi, le déluge?
It certainly looked as if he was just going through the motions.
Starmer's response was just as tedious and again boiled down to 'vote for us because we're not them'. Hardly inspiring.
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Listened to both Newsagents And The rest is Politics and everyone saying, through their Tory contracts, that no one knows why it’s been called now.
General consensus seems to be he is just chucking in the towel and doesn’t want to contribute w anymore.
I still can’t see him as a backbench MP on the opposition benches. How long after the general election till the by election??
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I’ve never felt so politically disenfranchised in my life. I’ve “swung both ways” over the years depending on my views and circumstances at the times, but frankly there are none of the current crop of self serving incompetents I feel inclined to support.
I’ll have to decide who are the least worst before the election I suppose.
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I’m past caring. Don’t give a stuff.
Not financially rich enough to be affected in any meaningful way and just hope I can continue with reasonable health to do stuff I enjoy until I croak.
Selfish. Yep. Paid tax since I was 17 now enjoying my recent retirement, doing my best for a 96yo mum with Alzheimer’s, as I have done for many years, and making the most of what’s left.
Don’t think I’ll even bother voting. Woe is me.
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>> I’ll have to decide who are the least worst before the election I suppose.
>>
BAU surely?
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A "roving reporter" asked unhappy members of the public who voted Tory in 2019 about their intentions. Most responses were entirely predictable. The last summed up my feelings - with a smile he said it was a choice of the lesser of two evils and would remain blue.
The political rhetoric from both sides is dismal:
- one says they have a plan but is evidently making only limited progress on many elements
- the other doesn't seem to have a plan - strategy is repeated criticism of the incumbents
The Boris and Brexit saga demonstrated rationality has no part in the democratic process. Votes are won as sales of breakfast cereals, air fresheners and chocolate bars. It's called marketing - changing perceptions, emotions and feelings irrespective of reality.
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The psychology of allegiance is an interesting subject. Many tend, perhaps irrationally, to continue to support a particular point of view despite rational evidence of its flaws.
Examples can be seen in all manner of daily life, the football fan who continues to support a badly performing, ill run team because they always have. The unhappy spouse who continues to “soldier on” in a clearly toxic or tired relationship. The employee who complains about their appalling job but doesn’t actively seek an alternative. Those who hold positive, or indeed negative views about given car brands based solely on emotion rather than fact and experience.
Just as in these situations, there are those, perhaps a majority, who pledge political allegiance to a given party early in life who don’t ever question the validity of that loyalty or why they continue to offer it.
People identify with tribes and traditions and it can be very difficult for them to accept/embrace change or to admit to themselves that they might have been wrong.
Last edited by: Runfer D'Hills on Thu 23 May 24 at 06:30
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True enough but thins election will be won by Labour precisely because of the huge number of moderate centre ground voters who have changed their allegiance from Conservative to Labour
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Yeah there is Tribalism and political allegiance, there always has been. Which is why the parties have always campaigned at swing seats. Its been the case for about the last century that 12%* of the population chose the party in power
*from memory
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>> A "roving reporter" asked unhappy members of the public who voted Tory in 2019 about
>> their intentions. Most responses were entirely predictable. The last summed up my feelings - with
>> a smile he said it was a choice of the lesser of two evils and
>> would remain blue.
After 14 years, does he think they are going to get lucky? Is it even possible there is a lesser evil than this morally bankrupt gang of charlatans? How much more proof does he want?
>>
>> The political rhetoric from both sides is dismal:
>>
>> - one says they have a plan but is evidently making only limited progress on
>> many elements
I think they should have more to show than a plan after 14 years. What is the plan anyway? Can anybody recall it?
>> - the other doesn't seem to have a plan
Repeats a man with no brolly, when it's been raining solidly all day and forecast to continue.
The first thing I want is an end to the lies, gimmicks and breakdown of just about everything from clean water to social care. Of course there are plans, we will hear more over the next 6 weeks.
>> - strategy is repeated criticism of
>> the incumbents
You haven't seen the strategy until this week, but it looks like a change agenda vs. Sunak's "lower risk to stick with us and our plan" which seems to be your rationale. Sometimes the greatest risk is to do nothing, and given where they have brought us to I would say that is undoubtedly one of those times. If not now, when?
>> The Boris and Brexit saga demonstrated rationality has no part in the democratic process. Votes
>> are won as sales of breakfast cereals, air fresheners and chocolate bars. It's called marketing
>> - changing perceptions, emotions and feelings irrespective of reality.
I would rather say that rationality can be completely undermined by demagogues, money and lies. Starmer is no demagogue.
The Conservative party no longer exists. What remains is rotten, and annihilation would be the kindest thing. I utterly despise them, their rich donors, and, I'm sorry to say, many of their forelock tugging supporters. It will be an absolute tragedy for country and people if we have to suffer any more of this. It breaks my heart to see what they have done to the country and so many decent folk. Sunak should be struck down if he ever refers to "hard working families" again. He has no clue. Or no heart.
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>> - the other doesn't seem to have a plan
>>
/www.clpd.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Keir-Starmers-10-Pledges.pdf
So what is the plan today. When elected as leader, included amongst other "pledges":
- increase income taxes for the top 5%
- abolish universal credit
- put the new green deal at the heart of everything
- demand international action on climate rights
- no more illegal wars
- public services in public hands (nationalisation)
- abolish the House of Lords
- a federal system to devolve powers
Perhaps the plan is to have no plan - the pledges made just 4 years ago seem to have been lost with the passage of time. I have only listed some of the specifics - not the motherhood and apple pie stuff that could emanate from almost any politician of any persuasion.
And the recent issue of first steps. Only two have the seeds of something specific:
- Great British Energy - is this nationalisation or something more fundamental and worthwhile
- 6500 teachers - utterly trivial promise - it amount to ~1.3 for every 100 currently employed
I expect Starmer to get the keys to No 10 - possibly a hung parliament if Tory/Reform get their act together or an overwhelming majority if they don't.
However I all the evidence points towards a flexing (or re-writing) of the plan as expedience rules. As a party they would happily sacrifice anything (grandmothers and children included) to win power. They are fundamentally as disgusting as those they seek to replace.
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Rather a lot has changed in the last 5 years.
Maybe you'd like to look at Sunak's relaunches. And he's only been there a year.
"fundamentally as disgusting". That's just the old "they're all as bad".
I was going to refute that but it's such childish tripe I can't be bothered.
I think we will see far more accountability to Parliament if there is a Labour government, less interference with the law and the constitution, and a much higher regard for the ministerial code.
Nobody I hope will ever be as bad as Johnson and Truss.
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>> "fundamentally as disgusting". That's just the old "they're all as bad".
>>
>> I was going to refute that but it's such childish tripe I can't be bothered.
>>
>>
>>
Lots of people say that, i think quite a lot believe it.
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Sunak, interviewed on the Today programme, has stated that no flights to Rwanda will leave before the election. I guess it was obviously too political to be done during a election campaign but unless the Tories are re-elected that's half a billion wee wee'd up a wall.
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As I wrote above:
- Sunak has a plan (Rwanda) but it is isn't working (yet?) and may never do so
- Starmer criticises the plan (justifiably?) but has no credible alternative to put in its place
Neither party has a coherent, clear, workable, plan to manage immigration. Assuming a plan is needed (folk can disagree and propose a free for all) it must be explicit even if it risks alienating some voters.
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>> As I wrote above:
>>
>> - Sunak has a plan (Rwanda) but it is isn't working (yet?) and may never
>> do so
Separating, for now, 'illegal' migrants seeking Asylum and those coming with visas the numbers are way beyond anything Rwanda can handle.
There are something like 40,000 who have arrived since the law changed and meant their Asylum claims would be inadmissible. Those people are currently in Home Office accommodation, either hotels or places run through contractors like Clearsprings.
The Conservatives don't have a realistic plan as to what to do with those people. Labour has said it will admit their claims rather than leave them in limbo for year.
Further provisions, not yet commenced, require the Home Secretary to detain all new arrivals. If that is brought into force the logistics will be, shall we say, interesting.
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My opinion was that a good majority of traditional Labour 'red wall' voters who voted Tory did so based purely on the fact the the wanted "Brexit done" which brought with it the greater control of illegal immigration and "Taking back control".
This never happened. So why not drift back to their historical allegiances?
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>> My opinion was that a good majority of traditional Labour 'red wall' voters who voted
>> Tory did so based purely on the fact the the wanted "Brexit done" which brought
>> with it the greater control of illegal immigration and "Taking back control".
>> This never happened. So why not drift back to their historical allegiances?
I'd go with that. Either Labour or, if they're still hankering after proper Brexit Reform. Not the Tories either way.
The other pinch for Sunak is in the Home Counties where the Lib Dems, a force in places until 2015, are a danger.
Here, in a place where a dog with blue rosette would normally get in we might, just, be in for a were you up for Leadsom moment but it's Labour she needs to worry about I think. We've moved into her seat as part of the boundary changes.
Our current man, Heaton Harris, has baled. That will be interesting too. There was a recount in Daventry in 1997 but it was over whether or not a deposit was lost rather than who won.
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I think the large number of very high boundary changes make this very tricky to work out for the pollsters when it comes down to individual seats. Quite a few look to be disappearing completely.
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>> I think the large number of very high boundary changes make this very tricky to
>> work out for the pollsters when it comes down to individual seats. Quite a few
>> look to be disappearing completely.
Yep. These boundary changes bring in a Cameron era plan to ensure that, with a few exceptions for islands eg Anglesey, Wight, the Western Isles etc are pretty much the same size. The place of communities and towns replaced by a primacy on numbers. South Northamptonshire has an Amoeba like extension up the west side of the M1 to catch a couple of dormitory villages so as to make up the numbers.
It's assumed that the changes favour the Tories as smaller urban seats (tend towards Labour) pick up a rural/commuter hinterland which swings them towards the Tories. Whether that's going to work where we are now is another question.
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I'd seen that but there's always been complaints about boundaries.
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>> I'd seen that but there's always been complaints about boundaries.
>>
A fundamental tenet of our democracy is one man (or woman, or however you identify) one vote.
The issue of whether FPTP is the right electoral system is a separate matter
Rejigging boundaries to reflect changing populations is nothing new. That it benefits one party or the other is inevitable.
The price paid for perpetuating existing boundaries indefinitely would be a loss of fundamental democratic principle.
There would be a sound argument for establishing a review at fixed (say) 10 year intervals to remove any suggestion of improper political pressure.
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>>Our current man, Heaton Harris, has baled.
Wasn't he an OK MP as they go? He seemed to be across the NI brief although I always wonder how they can drop a job like that on people with no particular background in the subject.
We are being moved from SW Herts to Harpenden & Berkhamsted. As before we will be a fairly remote appendage to the constituency which I expect to be very blue. Berko and Harpenden don't really interlink in any way and are separated within the constituency by a rural area north of Hemel Hempstead.
Reform is going to be a massive factor. If they get anywhere near 12% that should cook the Tory goose. But the Tories are already telling their disaffected voters that a vote for Reform is a vote for Labour. I also have to question whether Reform really will stand against the Tories in their existing seats. Reform does not have enough candidates yet.
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>> >>Our current man, Heaton Harris, has baled.
>>
>> Wasn't he an OK MP as they go? He seemed to be across the NI
>> brief although I always wonder how they can drop a job like that on people
>> with no particular background in the subject.
Virulently anti EU which colours my view. He was NBG when I wrote to him about Pension Credit and Mixed Age Couples (where one is over pension age but the other is not). Another screwover of the WASPI generation.
Seeing him kebabbed by Joanna Cherry over the COVID ferry thing was good value but I think you're right about NI.
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>> Here, in a place where a dog with blue rosette would normally get in.
Same here, the last party, that wasn't Conservative to win was over 100 years ago. Labour and LD have never won around here.
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>>
>> >> Here, in a place where a dog with blue rosette would normally get in.
I'd vote for the dog, much more reliable and rational than a politician
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The Cat party have a better manifesto. The right to roam, 18 hours sleep per day for all and free food.
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If Starmer has really said he'd give all illegal immegrants a 'free' pass, then I expect that'll open the floodgates and lose him a lot of votes.
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>> If Starmer has really said he'd give all illegal immegrants a 'free' pass, then I
>> expect that'll open the floodgates and lose him a lot of votes.
What do you mean by 'illegal immigrants'?
The free pass/amnesty thing is what Fishi Rishi wants us to believe; the reality is different.
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Thu 23 May 24 at 17:58
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Johnson usually lied. Sunak has been doing the same thing for a while.
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There have been some very big bets on the Torys winning a majority in July.
Cynical me thinks something is brewing that we don't know about, which will encourage us to vote for security (i.e. the current incumbent).
Current suspicions:
NATO to escalate contribution to the Ukraine, leading to direct conflict with Russia.
China's current blockade of Taiwan is not a training exercise but a prelude to invasion.
Economic data is incorrect with a big bump coming.
I suspect the result on the day will be much closer than many expect.
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>> There have been some very big bets on the Torys winning a majority in July.
Can you say where this was reported?
>> Cynical me thinks something is brewing that we don't know about, which will encourage us
>> to vote for security (i.e. the current incumbent).
>>
>> Current suspicions:
>>
>> NATO to escalate contribution to the Ukraine, leading to direct conflict with Russia.
>>
>> China's current blockade of Taiwan is not a training exercise but a prelude to invasion.
>>
>>
>> Economic data is incorrect with a big bump coming.
I have similar suspicions. The third, a big bump, is a given even assuming the data is correct. There will have to be cuts, tax rises or a revision of the fiscal rules.
No fourth option.
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Of course there's a fourth possibility.
Someone has information hugely damaging to a senior Labour figure?
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>> Someone has information hugely damaging to a senior Labour figure?
Is that sustainable or just stuff off the usual cesspit that is social media.
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Speculation, like much of the political discussion on here.
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I think things aren’t as cut n dried as polls suggest.
1. It matters who actually can vote on the day. Thousands of Scots will be abroad and will have needed to apply for postal votes within timescales. I don’t this will be priority for many. Add in to that all the others who are also holidaying abroad at summer time. And finally, the voter ID issue. This will be the first election for many since the rules came into play.
2. The right wing press and media still control the narrative. As been hinted at above, all it will take is some negative stories about Starmer and /or Labour policies and that could swing voters. We know these stories don’t actually need to be factually correct in any way. By the time there are any repercussions the election will be over.
We saw with the Brexit vote that blatant lies in campaigning are allowed. We have seen in the last election “Get Brexit Done” is enough to sway people even though it never really got done.
It’s going to be very messy.
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Well it didn't take long for the " it's a plot to disenfranchise the Scots" to rear it's ugly head now did it. Scotland is a straight choice between Labour and SNP, and holidaying jocks are equally represented on both sides.
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Sounds extremely far fetched to me. Someone's got an inside line to the senior leadership in china and their response is to bet on the Gov winning the election?
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Perhaps in a few years when autobiographies are published we may get to know the real reasons - the explanations above are pre speculation.
To speculate further:
- it may have been to catch the opposition (Labour, Reform, LibDems etc) ill prepared
- Rishi may want out rather than several more months of continued criticism
- there may be cabinet splits or other issues which have not yet surfaced publicly
- Rishi may simply be in back me or sack me mode
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>Sounds extremely far fetched to me. Someone's got an inside line to the senior leadership in china..
I haven't seen anything to confirm 'very big bets' on a Tory majority so your quip about China is just that.
I will tell you that mud-slinging and personal attacks are odds-on.
Last edited by: Kevin on Fri 24 May 24 at 10:57
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Still no idea how you can link the two events.
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I honestly have no idea why you are struggling with the concept that some hitherto unknown scandal about a senior Labour figure would be damaging to their electoral prospects and prompt betting on a Tory win.
I am not saying that I've heard of any such rumours, I offered it as an alternative to the other possibilities.
Now that Zippy has been more forthcoming about the 'very big bet' the subject is irrelevant anyway. £30k is chicken feed.
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My reply wasn't to you :)
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Ahh. sincere apologies. Must check threaded view before opening my mouth.
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>> I will tell you that mud-slinging and personal attacks are odds-on.
>>
>>
...and that's only on this forum...
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Gove has announced he won't be standing.
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I guess he is likely to be ennobled. I wonder what title he will choose. Lord Gove of Dracula?
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My local man, John Redwood is also not standing. I'm not sure he's that popular locally and there was a story last time around that the local party was going to drop him but something happened that stopped them. I think money was reputedly involved but I can't remember how. From being a true blue seat for years and years I think the boundary changes and the influx of people to all the new housing means the Tories are at some risk.
When I was in Round Table he once came to give us a talk and he was actually quite humorous and informative. It was at the time he was "something in Europe" alongside Tristan-Jones (Gareth?) and he had quite a few anecdotes about that role among other things.
Gove was not popular but I was quite impressed with him on some small stuff I watched him do, in Parliament and out.
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Dotty Dories has been protesting locally. The Tory candidate to replace her wasn't elected, Labour ousted him. He was the PCC at the time and reckoned he could do both jobs! He subsequently wasn't re-elected as PCC either. Nutty Nadine's saying that because he wasn't selected as the Tory candidate for the general election, it was a conspiracy to keep him out.
He's just lost two Tory posts to Labour!
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And now Andrea Leadsom.
And the little one said "Roll over".
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>> And now Andrea Leadsom.
Just heard that on the radio.
The rotter has deprived us of the possibility, albeit remote, of 'were you still up for Leadsom'.
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I read its the most amount of Conservative MPs to stand down before an election ever, however not the highest across all parties. Labour had 100+ stand down last time they left gov, i don't remember it being that high.
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>> I read its the most amount of Conservative MPs to stand down before an election
>> ever, however not the highest across all parties. Labour had 100+ stand down last time
>> they left gov, i don't remember it being that high.
>>
2010 - In all, 149 MPs (100 Labour, 35 Conservatives, 7 Liberal Democrats, 2 Independents, 1 Independent Conservative and 1 member each from the SNP, Plaid Cymru, the DUP, and the SDLP) decided not to contest the election.
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>> When I was in Round Table he once came to give us a talk and
>> he was actually quite humorous and informative. It was at the time he was "something
>> in Europe" alongside Tristan-Jones (Gareth?)
Tristan Garel-Jones was Conservative MP for Watford from 79 to 97 which includes the period when I lived there.
He went to the Lords after losing his seat.
Died in 2020.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tristan_Garel-Jones
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archive.ph/BBICX
Article about wes streeting and the nhs published in the times.
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How fixable it is at any cost we can afford remains to be seen. But he's right about the culture IMO. It probably has its roots in the pre-Thatcher 'clan' control model, when decisions were made by senior doctors and nurses based on 'doing the right (or pragmatic) thing'. Many can remember the god-like status this seemed to confer on the mainly male doctors then.
The NHS carried on using dangerous blood products when the risk was known, and the fact that we are only now nearly 40 years later getting proper accountability speaks volumes.
The NHS has almost certainly given me my life. But I know that if nothing changes and my wife, as looks likely, needs a hip replacement in the next few years, we'll probably end up writing a cheque for it when many can't.
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I agree with the god-like status once attributed to doctors. They pronounced, we accepted!! I assume funding was an issue in 1980 as it is now.
In 1980 ~4% of GDP was spent on healthcare. Currently the UK spends ~9-10%. So I am unsure whether healthcare 40-50 years ago was actually better than now, or whether it is simply a rose tinted view of the past.
Difficult to know as so much has changed:
- demographics - people are older and inevitably require more care
- much better diagnostic techniques (blood tests, scans etc)
- much greater range of treatments available through medical research
- better informed public through access to internet and media demanding more
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I doubt if healthcare was actually better in 1980. The waiting lists for elective stuff like knee surgery was IIRC 2-3 years and many procedures simply didn't exist. Heart bypass grafts were the best hope for coronary artery disease, now I think most are stented. I don't think implanted defibrillators were around, now they are common. There was I'm sure a lot of rationing which was handled locally and informally, and probably not in a way people would have been happy with had they known quite how it worked.
A case can and has been made for 'reasonable' waiting lists rather than trying to eliminate them altogether which has the effect of maximising demand.
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>>I doubt if healthcare was actually better in 1980.
I was knocked off my cycle in the early '80s and spent some time in hospital. They were very caring, but save for plaster, there wasn't a lot they could do.
Miss Z on the other hand, has been training on a Da Vinci machine this week - how times change.
The hospitals are so much better as well. We have a 1980's built district general hospital which replaced several expensive to maintain and hence dilapidated Victorian and older hospitals and converted work-houses.
The 1970's DGH a couple of town over is now at the end of its life and is being replaced (same site - they are going to build a new one on the car park of the current one then demolish the old one and use its site for the new car park.
Last edited by: zippy on Sat 25 May 24 at 21:36
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I wonder whose votes he is hoping to win with that one?
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>> I wonder whose votes he is hoping to win with that one?
>>
All of the idiots who think it will cure the ills of society. You know the type, they say "make 'em do national service, it'll lick 'em in to shape".
All it will do is teach the thugs how to be more deadly thugs with unarmed and armed combat training kicks in when fighting an unarmed copper or defiant OAP.
I can see the headlines now...
OAP who voted for national service, killed by yob trained to kill by army.
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Should have added...
He's very keen to knock Labour re unfunded policies.
This is a huge one. How are the new camps, barracks, equipment, staff, meals etc, the pay for the national service personnel (he's not going to make them do it for free is he?), going to be paid for, it'll cost billions!
Last edited by: zippy on Sun 26 May 24 at 00:05
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£2.5bn by all accounts all sent up by 2028. Safe to say we're not able to create 30,000 more bed spaces by then never mind all the rest of the stuff you need.
Mind you none of that really matters, sounds like one of those fantasy policies that come round at GE time.
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>> news.sky.com/story/sunak-says-he-will-bring-back-national-service-if-tories-win-general-election-13143184
>>
>>
>> Bringing back national service.
I can't get into the mind of a Daily Mail reader but this seems completely nuts. Of course under 18's, the ones who would be affected, can't vote but I think this will probably get young voters out to vote against it anyway. And millennial parents, even boomer grandparents, who don't want their offspring subjected to it.
I note that whilst it won't be compulsory, those who don't want to do it will have to do some mandatory volunteering.
I work alongside younger teenage volunteers and they are brilliant. But they are the ones who actually want to do it for their DofE awards. I can't imagine a conscript army of 'volunteers' being much use or a joy to work with.
IIRC Gordon Brown about 20 years ago came up with an idea for organised community work for under 19's that quietly faded away.
They have lost their minds. The debacle of the last few days starting with the soaking of Sunak has made them panicky and desperate.
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>> I work alongside younger teenage volunteers and they are brilliant. But they are the ones
>> who actually want to do it for their DofE awards. I can't imagine a conscript
>> army of 'volunteers' being much use or a joy to work with.
Miss Z loved her DofE leaders. She is still in contact with several of them.
One of her most rewarding volunteering jobs was as a "beautician" at the local hospital, giving manicures, applying make up and nail varnish for sick patients so that they would look good when family visited.
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>>
>> Bringing back national service.
>>
I never thought in my life time, I would see a Tory party desperate enough to ring that old chestnut out. They have gone completely bonkers, a desperate attempt to hold the party together by appealing to the most swiveled eyed loons available, you know it's been foisted on him by the timing. Madness
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I think we had better get used to the sound of barrels being scraped over the next few weeks.
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Maybe they did it to try and undermine Reform. If they can get 2 or 3 points back from them, then that might be their softest target. The perception is that Reform voters are people who think the Conservatives are namby pamby socialists, or at least not right wing enough.
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Let's call it 'life-skills coaching'? Would that make a difference?
Seems to work OK in Denmark, Sweden, Greece etc. etc.
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Education is now compulsory to 18 isn't it? I'd hope they can fit in some life-skills coaching.
Stiil, it's not as if we have anything else to spend £2.5bn. on.
In fairness, Jimmy Dimly made it sound almost plausible on Kuenssberg this morning, in a non-specific kind of way. But I think it will be seen as desperate at this stage.
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In my earlier years at work I had plenty of colleagues who had done national service. I don't remember one saying it was anything other than a pointless and boring time to be endured rather than enjoyed.
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There's 12 countries in Europe that have some sort of conscription, many have an alternative service option.
If it'd been part of the political chat since say, Russia invaded Ukraine, it could perhaps pass muster. However it looks like it's come out of nowhere. I only remember one very brief public mentioning of it a few months ago that went nowhere.
So it makes the whole thing look silly. That's before you get into any practical considerations.
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It's desperate headline grabbing tosh pure and simple but I'm not going to dismiss out of hand that some form of national service or volunteering is automatically worthless or an infringement of some description just because the Tories floated the idea.
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Badly worded but you get the gist.
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>> I'm not going to dismiss out
>> of hand that some form of national service or volunteering is automatically worthless or an
>> infringement of some description....
>>
FIL mentioned his national service when he was alive. He was a practical man, engineering apprenticeship, job with an engineering company.
He hated national service. Most of the time was spent in leaky, freezing barracks in the middle of nowhere. He wanted to learn a trade but most of the time it was digging holes or other mindless tasks. He said he and some others offered to repair the barracks but were told they weren't allowed to.
Now, properly planned, funded, resourced - with proper qualifications (city and guilds or the modern equivalent) then it may be worth it, but I would guess that like a lot of things in this country, the national service bods will be foisted on some unsuspecting forces unit who will be told to make "use of them".
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>In fairness, Jimmy Dimly made it sound almost plausible on Kuenssberg this morning,..
Who's Jimmy Dimly?
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I think it's reference to james cleverly. He doesn't strike me as dim, i thought he did a fairly good job at the FO.
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From reading the Beeb, it seems to me that the military bit sounds like a kind of apprenticeship
"Military training: Applying for one of up to 30,000 “selective” military placements reserved for teenagers deemed the “brightest and the best” in areas like logistics, cyber security, procurement or civil response operations over a year-long period"
While the majority would do
"Community volunteering: Spending one weekend every month - which equates to 25 days over a 12-month period - volunteering with organisations such as the NHS, fire service, ambulance, search and rescue, and critical local infrastructure"
So "The vast majority of 18-year-olds would not take part in any military training at all." It says further on it'd be approx 1 in 26.)
So no digging trenches or going into battle, if the Beeb are right. I don't think that necessarily sounds as bad as is being touted.
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>> The govs position on this days before the announcement.
Oh Dear.
I suspect that's a stock answer and I'm sure the Civil Servants who drafted it were unaware of Sunak's plans but there's a degree of egg/face interaction for the government.
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Mon 27 May 24 at 07:58
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Since the proposal is for the next government, the written answer was correct.
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>> Since the proposal is for the next government, the written answer was correct.
I assume you are being droll.
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>I think it's reference to james cleverly...
I must be going senile - I hadn't twigged. Cleverly...Dim.. duh!
Does someone spend all their day dreaming up these things? Some can be quite entertaining eg. I thought the 30p Lee thing hit the spot at the time, topical and comical but this one is high school stuff.
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The name Jimmy Dimly is widespread on social media sites that are not supportive of the Tories.
I'm fairly sure I've seen it in the Graun's sketches as well.
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>The name Jimmy Dimly is widespread on social media sites that are not supportive of
>the Tories.
>
>I'm fairly sure I've seen it in the Graun's sketches as well.
Does pseudo mockery of this calibre genuinely amuse them?
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A satirical sketch puts it in a bit more context. Hardly Spitting Image though.
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>>I'm fairly sure I've seen it in the Graun's sketches as well.
Yes, coined by John Crace.
It wouldn't be amusing if he was really clever. Although he undoubtedly has a real gift with the gab, he really isn't that bright but has an amazing ability to get on message even when that requires a 180 degree change of view (he was the cabinet minister who described the Rwanda plan as "batshit" IIRC).
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I'd not heard of it tbh, i just worked it out from manatees post.
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Seems to work OK in Denmark, Sweden, Greece etc. etc.
>>
It works for them but they have a very different military. Countries that have partial or total conscription tend to be focused on one task. They aim to defend themselves against Russia*, they have no real overseas interests. Very few overseas taskings, no overseas bases etc.
I can't think of any countries in Europe that have conscription and lots of deployments, bases overseas etc. I think to absorb lots of recruits we'd need to completely reshape our military and foreign policy. Lots of the foreign policy is decades old and would take some winding down.
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>It works for them but they have a very different military...
I don't see any reason why a military component can't be tailored to today's world. I don't see any reason why a military component in the traditional sense has to be a compulsory part of it.
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>
>> I don't see any reason why a military component can't be tailored to today's world.
For some countries yes, for the uk for reasons above i don't really see how they would be used in a useful sense.
>> I don't see any reason why a military component in the traditional sense has to
>> be a compulsory part of it.
>>
No need at all.
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My father loved his National Service. Mind you they made him a dispatch rider, sent him out to Gibraltar, and gave him a powerful motorbike and a pass to cross the border into Spain. He was devilishly handsome, and apparently I was nearly called Jose, and have a mother called Rosa.
Any national service, of any kind touted by the tories, is stymied by the fact its been spouted for years by the SEL faction as a way to "sort out the hooligan youth element".
As far as war goes, if the Russia thing kicks off, we wont need scores of cannon fodder to fill or storm trenches, we will need skilled operatives and maintainers of hi tech weapon systems & hi tech surveillance systems, intelligence analysts, hackers and spoofers, pilots and support.
We need missiles and planes more than yoof dragged from the street.
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... Like wot I quoted from the Beeb upthread then
"Military training: Applying for one of up to 30,000 “selective” military placements reserved for teenagers deemed the “brightest and the best” in areas like logistics, cyber security, procurement or civil response operations over a year-long period"
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>> ... Like wot I quoted from the Beeb upthread then
>>
>> "Military training: Applying for one of up to 30,000 “selective” military placements reserved for teenagers
>> deemed the “brightest and the best” in areas like logistics, cyber security, procurement or civil
>> response operations over a year-long period"
>>
In my travels for work, I visit lots of different companies. I love the foundries, especially those that take small custom jobs. Engineering firms are always interesting.
A few have been very interesting. One, touring the premises with a director, we turned down a corridor and there was an armed (machine gun) policeman. "Ah can't let you in there matey"
There have been other high-tech miliary / aerospace contractors, some small, some large, making lots of interesting bits and bobs, some of which cost a fortune.
The weirdest was a furniture manufacturer who was in the process of delivering thousands of single desks with space for a PC, screen and keyboard, plus chairs and that was it. Plans were seen for floor upon floor of these - but no location; I'm guessing a cyber-security centre.
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>> ... Like wot I quoted from the Beeb upthread then
>>
>> "Military training: Applying for one of up to 30,000 “selective” military placements reserved for teenagers
>> deemed the “brightest and the best” in areas like logistics, cyber security, procurement or civil
>> response operations over a year-long period"
>>
I wouldn't read much into that. If it ever happens they'll have 6/7 months of productive service after basic training leave etc. They won't learn that much in that time.
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Yes I know, but (if true) it could set them on a career path. I know quite a few whose parents were military and wanted their offspring o follow. Those who did seem too have done OK in life. Thet aren't all on the front line of course
Last edited by: smokie on Mon 27 May 24 at 18:42
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>> >>
>>
>> I wouldn't read much into that. If it ever happens they'll have 6/7 months of
>> productive service after basic training leave etc. They won't learn that much in that time.
>>
>>
And the army won't be interested in training conscripts who will nearly all leave as soon as they can. So they'll fill their time whitewashing the coal and cutting the grass with a scissors.
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Coal? Struggle to find any. Plenty of weapons to clean, plenty of vehicles to DI though.
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>> "Military training: Applying for one of up to 30,000 “selective” military placements reserved for teenagers
>> deemed the “brightest and the best” in areas like logistics, cyber security, procurement or civil
>> response operations over a year-long period"
The Conservatives promoted this as initial capitals National Service. As a result the focus in the news has been on the military but in fact 30,000 is a pretty small proportion of the approx 750k individuals born in a year.
As above there will be a selective process for areas set out above and no doubt others. My guess is that there won't be much square bashing or living in barracks. More like intensive training in a Uni type environment.
The rest will be doing one weekend in four doing whatever else the Royal Commission charged with fleshing this half baked scheme out comes up with.
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>> As above there will be a selective process for areas set out above and no
>> doubt others. My guess is that there won't be much square bashing or living in
>> barracks. More like intensive training in a Uni type environment.
>>
>>
More than likely, the budget for building enough bedspaces, class rooms etc would be a lot. It's more barracks blocks than the entire RN has. It would be a very large undertaking in just 4/5 years.
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> He was devilishly handsome,..
Isn't there some fancy term that biologists use for a parental attribute that skips a generation?
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...it's the illegitimacy syndrome....
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news.sky.com/story/conservatives-promise-tax-cut-for-pensioners-with-triple-lock-plus-13144094
Today's latest policy. Looks pretty desperate to me, i guess lots of pensioners are planning on voting for reform and this is an effort to reverse that.
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>> news.sky.com/story/conservatives-promise-tax-cut-for-pensioners-with-triple-lock-plus-13144094
>>
>> Today's latest policy. Looks pretty desperate to me, i guess lots of pensioners are planning
>> on voting for reform and this is an effort to reverse that.
I agree. All it really does is focus on how far 'fiscal drag' has pulled people into paying Income Tax or paying more.
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>> I agree. All it really does is focus on how far 'fiscal drag' has pulled
>> people into paying Income Tax or paying more.
This has always riled me, that we have gov departments responsible for handing out cash and benefits, and another responsible for clawing it back again.
With inflation and fiscal drag, rather than bellow on about triple locks and other such schemes, Just raise the tax threshold for pensioners, say based on age. Easy to implement and fair.
Last edited by: Zero on Tue 28 May 24 at 10:13
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"and fair."
There's quite some resentment among young generations against older ones, if the press are to be believed. So this may win oldies votes but at the expense of some youngsters.
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Worth noting that pensioners do not benefit from the two national insurance reductions unless still working.
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>> Worth noting that pensioners do not benefit from the two national insurance reductions unless still
>> working.
True but it was a policy decision to focus on those in work with the NI cut.
The situation where the pension on its own is enough to consume/exceed the entire personal allowance is new and giving rise to grumbling on the ground.
A result of the 'new' post 2016 pension being more, the triple lock and fiscal drag.
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Tue 28 May 24 at 14:36
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>> "and fair."
>>
>> There's quite some resentment among young generations against older ones, if the press are to
>> be believed. So this may win oldies votes but at the expense of some youngsters.
Fair as in "rich" pensioners still pay tax, fair as in the less rich don't. As far as the young go, they will moan about pensioners no matter of their fiscal state. That's life. Young voters are invariably radical anyway, and probably voting for the extremists.
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>> Young voters are invariably radical anyway, and probably voting for the
>> extremists.
>>
I think they tend to be broadly socialist. Very few are expected to vote Conservative. It's the oldies who are on the extreme right. I'm getting a bit fed up with peddling the Daily Mails on Saturdays. There are quite a few who come for the 'classic combo', Mail and Telegraph. They must be absolutely furious when they've read them both.
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"Young voters are invariably radical anyway, and probably voting for the extremists."
Not like all those pensioners voting for Reform then. It was the ageing Conservative Pary members who gave us Liz Truss. If the under forties had decided the Brexit issue the vote would have been massively in favour of remaining in the EU. With an ageing population and the old effectivley deciding the results of election you can see why the young are increasingly feeling disenfranchised and ignored by the political system.
Last edited by: CGNorwich on Tue 28 May 24 at 16:58
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>>
>>
>> Not like all those pensioners voting for Reform then. It was the ageing Conservative Pary
>> members who gave us Liz Truss.
>>
And the younger Labour Party members who gave us Jeremy Corbyn, which meant we were stuck with this Conservative government for the past four years, Liz Truss and all.
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Manchester Police, Stockport Council and HMRC are all taking no action regarding Angela Rayner's homes/tax etc.
I wonder how much that cost and whether James Daly (Tory MP who kicked up a fuss) will contribute.
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You mean like Tom Watson did?
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>> You mean like Tom Watson did?
Well my expectation of success is about the same.
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I see Rayner doesn't mind telling porkies. From Politico:
In her own statement, Rayner accused the Conservatives of “reporting political opponents to the police during election campaigns to distract from their dire record.”
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>> I see Rayner doesn't mind telling porkies. From Politico:
>> In her own statement, Rayner accused the Conservatives of “reporting political opponents to the police
>> during election campaigns to distract from their dire record.”
Beergate and CGTGate were both driven by Conservative MPs complaints to Durham and Greater Manchester Police respectively. In Rayner's case further pressure was applied after the Police, correctly it seems, said the issue complained of were not Police matters.
The MP himself, James Daly, didn't seem able to say what criminal offences might have been committed.
That said I don't think Rayner has done herself any credit by her explanations. I can also see that anything she said would be taken apart by 'experts' and lead to a never ending round of questions. That's why politicians of any stripe don't go down that road.
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I just can't get excited about the election at the mo, but one thing is annoying me.
A number of Tory politicians have mentioned Gordon Brown's tax on dividends on pension companies and how bad it was - and I agree.
BUT none of them will comment on why, after being in power for 14 years, they haven't reversed the change - they have had plenty of opportunities - it's this double speak or halve truths that really need sorting and not one of the interviewers have challenged them on this.
Last edited by: zippy on Thu 30 May 24 at 13:54
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Labour has selected Torsten Bell as the Labour candidate for Swansea West. He was Ed Miliband's Director of Policy and is currently Director of Resolution Foundation.
The Resolution Foundation released a report in December titled "A New Economic Strategy for Britain" which recommended:-
- Making everyone pay inheritance tax by scrapping the nil-rate band.
- Raise Capital Gains Tax on shares to 37% and real estate to 53%
- Charge Capital Gains Tax on death and when moving out of UK.
- Slashing VAT registration threshold to £30,000.
- Scrap business and agricultural property reliefs.
- Hike basic rate of Dividend tax from 8.75% to 20%.
- Charge national insurance on rental income.
- Hike national insurance for higher self-employed incomes by 300% to 8%.
- Cut the £270,000 cap on tax-free pensions to £40,000.
- Introduce pay-per-mile road duty for electric vehicles.
- Scrap the 5p cut in fuel duty. Increase fuel duty by 2% every year.
- Hike vehicle excise duty for heavier cars.
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I assume thi is the report Kevin mentions:
economy2030.resolutionfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Ending-stagnation-final-report.pdf
Torsten Bell has made lot of insightful commentary on Welfare and Housing. He's one of many people creditrd with writing that report
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Sat 1 Jun 24 at 06:46
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Anybody who wants a balanced summary should read the report..
I imagine that post has been lifted directly or indirectlyfrom a Conservative press release.
It won't be in anybody's manifesto but there's some sensible stuff in it. Including e.g. dispensing with the removal of personal allowances at £100,000 of earnings and dramatically reducing the rate of inheritance tax.
I can't remember the rest but it's worth reading for the background trends alone.
The poor have got dramatically poorer and the report suggests both welfare and pensions need to rise with earnings. CPI substitution for RPI has really hurt the poorest and it's really the earnings
link that has made the state pension better.
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>> Anybody who wants a balanced summary should read the report..
>>
>> I imagine that post has been lifted directly or indirectly from a Conservative press release.
Both those things. The report is all but 300 pages and effectively a book; not something you can skim through.
Inheritance tax on all estates will terrify the middle classes. Applied at a lower rate of say 10%, less so.
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I was listening to an old More Or Less last night which was partly about inheritance tax. They said that only 5% of people pay anything. Total tax take from it was about £8bn, so 1% of the tax burden.
So it wouldn't that cost much to do away with it, as has previously been mooted - probably administratively easier just to get rid.
Last edited by: smokie on Sat 1 Jun 24 at 08:56
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>>They said that only 5% of people pay anything. Total tax take from
>> it was about £8bn, so 1% of the tax burden.
>>
>> So it wouldn't that cost much to do away with it, as has previously been
>> mooted - probably administratively easier just to get rid.
On the other hand...the seriously rich are very good at avoiding income taxes so look out for wealth taxes. Inheritance tax take can almost certainly be increased materially without making it worse for the masses because people with lots of assets over and above the value of their homes tend to find it easier to avoid.
Also the tax take will increase from here regardless of who wins the election. The rises already baked in by the Conservatives IIRC are likely to add 4% points to income tax over the next 5 years.
On inheritance tax, the report doesn't actually say anything about removing the nil rate band that I can find. It does suggest removing the separate "Residence Nil Rate Band" which is over and above the £325,000 basic allowance. The net of that would be a benefit to my heirs if the applicable rate dropped from 40% to 20%. The change mentioned in allowances would be to cut reliefs for business and agricultural property.
"A close competitor to Council Tax for the least popular tax, is Inheritance Tax.
An effective tax on bequests is even more important in a society that has seen
such a large rise in wealth levels, creating patterns of winners and losers based
to a great extent on luck – such as large swings in interest rates or being born to
the right parents. But such a tax can cannot sustain public support when it is too
easily avoided by the wealthy and well-advised. To rebuild its reputation, reliefs
for business and agricultural property that are widely abused should be scrapped
or tightly focused, pension pots included within an estate, and the complicated
Residence Nil Rate Band abolished. These changes would make it possible to
replace Inheritance Tax’s high, flat rate of 40 per cent with a more popular banded
structure, with rates of 20, 30 and 40 per cent."
and in a footnote "In time, Inheritance Tax should be entirely replaced by a lifetime, recipient-based acquisitions tax similar to Ireland’s."
The bottom line is that the overall tax take will inevitably rise. The report is about making it fairer and simpler. The problem in having a tax code longer than the bible is that the potential for loopholes is in proportion to the complexity.
The unfairness in the different treatment of earnings for the rich vs. the rest of us was neatly if untypically illustrated by Sunak's and Starmer's tax returns.
Evening Standard article from March 23:
Sir Keir Starmer is paying a far greater proportion of his earnings in tax than Rishi Sunak despite the Prime Minister making 10 times more.
The Labour leader paid £118,580 in tax on earnings of £359,720 over the last two years, the summary of his tax return showed. That made his effective tax rate 33%.
Mr Sunak, who earned £3.7 million over the same period, paid a rate of about 22% in tax because most of his earnings came from capital gains.
Income tax on salaries is charged at a higher rate than on capital gains, which cover assets such as properties and shares.
As with any proposals there would be winners and losers.
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There are strong arguments for massive simplification of the tax system. Successive budgets tend to introduce changes that may individually make sense, but over time build complexity.
In doing so they have often sought to avoid confrontation with opposing interest groups, thus making legislation unnecessarily tortuous. They have compounded the problem by a failure to remove legislation no longer required.
Labyrinthine tax avoidance schemes will flourish when legislation is complex.
Simplification creates winners and losers - with only winners or unaffected complexity and the tax burden will increase. Honesty is required in its implementation rather than the normal smoke and mirrors dogma driven nonsense usually offered.
A few thoughts - not all necessarily palatable - eg:
- there is limited justification for different rates of CGT and income tax
- goods zero rated and exempt from VAT are anomalous and complex
- national insurance is just another tax - why keep it separate from income tax
- why not scrap inheritance tax completely and have a single wealth tax
- state funded care for the elderly with significant assets only benefits the beneficiaries
It is symptomatic of the current election debate that neither leader wants to risk votes by effectively challenging the status quo - Jeremy Hunt being ridiculed for suggesting an aspiration to eliminate NI, or VAT on schools fees - a dogma driven bit of trivia.
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>>A few thoughts - not all necessarily palatable - eg:
Agree / understand those except...
>>- goods zero rated and exempt from VAT are anomalous and complex
VAT on food and 20% VAT on gas and electricity would impoverish many at the poorer end of society.
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Fair comment - but in the context of simplifying taxation it makes things simpler. It would not stop an appropriate increase to (say) existing personal tax allowances, universal credit, old age pensions to compensate.
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There may be some odditiies to iron out around VAT exempt/zero rating but even with mitigations putting up food and other essentials by 20% will have poll tax type riots on the street.
When we moved in to our present house we had the option of a VAT free dishwasher but no refund for the cost if the deal fell through as it very nearly did. Wait until we'd exchanged and VAT was payble.
Inheritance Tax is riddled with work arounds the well advised can use. My Mother's estate exceeded the limit by some considerble margin but unused allowance from when Dad died 20 years earlier and the residential property thin meant the estate paid nothing.
Probably better to tax it in the hads of the recipient.
CGT at 10% is almost nugatory.
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Game changer??
Nigel Farage announces he's standing in Clacton and leading Reform in place of Tice.
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Mon 3 Jun 24 at 16:20
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Clacton, known as little Dagenham owing to white flight to there from the borough over the last two decades. I'm not surprised he's standing there, Dagenham was a solid white working class and conservative with a small C area. The BNP had a major presence there in the eighties and nineties.
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Unfortunately he seems to me to be a pretty good and persuasive speaker who will manage to hit the right buttons with a lot of people.
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>> Unfortunately he seems to me to be a pretty good and persuasive speaker who will
>> manage to hit the right buttons with a lot of people.
What we might get now is the Cons steaming further rightwards to counter Reform. Rumour is they are discussing hardening their position on ECHR.
That won't imho be an election winner. I get the impression they have given up on that, they just want to stop Reform pinching their most loyal voters.
They are beyond parody now. Off the scale. What should we make of the fact that two recent prime ministers, chosen by the party now seeking re-election, want Trump to be US President?
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Game changer? No, the tory party were in for a hammering anyway. Notably he has stolen the most winnable seat for Reform, so he is not prepared to put his reputation at risk. As befits an unashamed publicity seeking w****bag.
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I suspect Farage sees the Conservatives in total disarray after a devastating election result. If he can be elected as an MP he feels he will be in a position to put himself up for leader. In fact there might well be a clamour by the remaining rump of right wing Tories for him to become their leader.
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>> I suspect Farage sees the Conservatives in total disarray after a devastating election result. If
>> he can be elected as an MP he feels he will be in a position
>> to put himself up for leader. In fact there might well be a clamour by
>> the remaining rump of right wing Tories for him to become their leader.
>>
There is at least one traditional Tory who would'nt contemplate voting for a party headed by Farage - me.
Labour post 2015 (2010 was fairly close) and Tories post 1997 spent half a decade trying to rationalise why they lost, and electing clearly deficient leaders before reality and someone vaguely credible intervenes (Cameron and Starmer)
Corbyn for Labour, Hague, Duncan Smith and Howard for the Tories - all inadequate for different reasons.
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I rather suspect that the conclusion of most Tory voters as to why they lost will be that they were not right wing enough.
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>> I rather suspect that the conclusion of most Tory voters as to why they lost
>> will be that they were not right wing enough.
>>
Most Tory party members you mean. The same as most Labour members being just as far to the left.
Neither group seem to understand that the electorate never moves either side of a few points of the centre.
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He has lost 7 elections in the past despite being a very effective communicator.
He has the capacity to convince and alienate in equal measure. One hopes he falls flat again.
He is apparently also replacing Richard Tice as leader of Reform - I am not sure where this leaves RT or whether Reform are actually in disarray.
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I thought I read he'd become Chairman. Isn't he the one bankrolling them, pretty much singlehandedly?
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Tice put the money in I think.
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I only half heard some comments on TV this morning but the gist was that Farage is the majority shareholder in the company behind the party. So no need for a leadership process. He just made up his mind and it happened.
I don’t know whether to admire his neck or see it as a dictatorial move. Mind you the main parties have flawed procedures to appoint a leader too.
Last edited by: martin aston on Tue 4 Jun 24 at 13:35
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I read today there was a surprising amount of people at his public appearance. Turned into a bit of a scrum, by all accounts people came from across the country to hear him speak live.
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>> by all accounts people came from across the country
>> to hear him speak live.
I could've, but didn't bother.
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Latest accounts show a rather large negative net worth:
find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/11694875/filing-history
Last edited by: zippy on Wed 5 Jun 24 at 21:15
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Shamelessly plagiarised from elsewhere over a picture of the milk shake assault:
Where lactose meets intolerance.
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Did anybody watch it in its entirety?
The excerpts I've heard seem to feature less than polished Starmer and Sunak being shouty and interrupting all the time, as he did with Truss et al during the leadership contest.
Very poor manners.
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No, didn't watch any of it. I'd forgotten it was on. Apparently quite dull, lots of squabbling.
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Yes I watched it. Lots of talking over one another at the beginning. Didn’t learn much except that both sides won’t tell you how they can finance their plans without tax increases. If it were a boxing match I would have given it to Sunak on points but it would be close.
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JLP poll for the Sun gave it to Starmer 53/33, don't knows 13%
A snap YouGov poll for Sky I think gave it to Sunak 51/49.
Sunak repeated 10 times that Labour would increase tax by £2000 per household, a number the Cons have made up themselves, claiming the Treasury has independently calculated it.
Starmer should have stamped on it immediately and didn't, although he did describe it as garbage in the closing minutes. Ministers are repeating this on the news round. The Treasury has effectively disowned it, and Labour is accusing Sunak of lying, so despite approving front pages from the Express and the other one, it may yet backfire on Sunak.
Sunak's pitch at the end was that you don't know what you'll get with Labour, so you should vote for him.
Neither party's manifesto is out yet.
Sunak constantly shouted over Starmer, who for the most part appeared to be waiting his turn. I think a Conservative voter would see this as a strong performance. Others are more likely to see it as rude, or desperate.
The audience actually laughed at Sunak's defence of 'national service'.
Last edited by: Manatee on Wed 5 Jun 24 at 10:15
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Next one could be interesting. I heard it's including Farage, Rayner and Mordaunt.
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>> Next one could be interesting. I heard it's including Farage, Rayner and Mordaunt.
Tomorrow I think.
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One of Nigel Farage current directorships is "Thorn In The side Limited"
find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/07650770
He is a serial PITA who takes pleasure from creating discord and confusion. Any suggestion he is a serious politician is an illusion. The worst that can be done is to feed his ego through voting for him.
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That's one thing we can agree on. Malignant narcissist. His apparent popularity is a mystery.
Another mystery is why two recent former prime ministers from the party currently seeking re-election want Trump to be US president.
However I think I might have worked out why the BBC has lost its pre-eminence as the touchstone for news. Like Keir Starmer, it is carrying a priceless Ming vase across a highly polished and slippery floor. Government should leave it alone, that was in the original design. It's been eclipsed by Channel 4 and Sky these last few days.
The debate was awful. Next to useless. I know everybody is sick of it, but why not a single reference to Brexit which has done more ongoing damage to us than anything else?
Here endeth today's gloomy reflections.
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>> That's one thing we can agree on. Malignant narcissist. His apparent popularity is a mystery.
>>
>> Another mystery is why two recent former prime ministers from the party currently seeking re-election
>> want Trump to be US president.
>>
>
Not so mysterious really. There's an even chance he'll be the next president, makes sense on a practical level to put some feelers out.
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>> Not so mysterious really. There's an even chance he'll be the next president, makes sense
>> on a practical level to put some feelers out.
Feelers for what? Neither is going to be in government. They are disgraced nobodies. Are they after a job? Ah...
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> Feelers for what? Neither is going to be in government. They are disgraced nobodies. Are
>> they after a job? Ah...
>>
Because they aren't in government is why they'd be sent. They aren't disgraced nobodies to the people they are sent to talk to.
I don't see them job hunting, why now. Why not next year or last year.
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>> That's one thing we can agree on. Malignant narcissist. His apparent popularity is a mystery.
>>
>>
Because a large portion of the population are unhappy at the numbers of people from different cultures who have settled here over several decades. These are mainly from the traditional working classes, theirs being the areas which have been most effected by the influx which they resented because it completely changed the character of their town or borough, almost overnight in many cases.
Complain to the main political players and they get sneeringly called bigots and racists, so they turn to Farage and his like as the only people who will speak up for them. "Flooding the country with immigrants to screw the Tories" is what eventually led to Brexit.
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>> He is a serial PITA who takes pleasure from creating discord and confusion. Any suggestion
>> he is a serious politician is an illusion. The worst that can be done is
>> to feed his ego through voting for him.
He's not a serious political leader but he's very good at politics in the sense of reading the messages and responding.
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>> He's not a serious political leader but he's very good at politics in the sense
>> of reading the messages and responding.
Some messages, noisy messages, he is good at exploiting fault lines. And like most earthquakes along fault lines he is destructive and divisive, with no real all inclusive solution or end game. HE is so much like trump.
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We live in, and most of us value, democracy - a system of government in which state power is vested in the people or the general population of a state.
That Brexit happened, or that Reform and Farage will get some votes is a demonstration of democratic process and principals in action.
That policies are based on what we individually may regard as flawed, inconsequential, unethical or immoral is irrelevant - it is the people democratically expressing their opinion.
The solution is not ridicule or direct criticism of those who made these choices - it merely inflames and entrenches views. People need to either be far better informed and educated, or denied the vote unless they can demonstrate competence so to do (the latter is probably undemocratic!!).
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I don't blame the voters.
Recriminations are unproductive anyway. Whether it was the decision or the execution, what has happened has been a massive act of self harm, and can't be put right until it is acknowledged.
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www.survation.com/survation-mrp-labour-set-for-record-breaking-majority/
The Con party would reduce down to 71 seats, even then going by the graph choosing a few at random many of their seats they lead by less than 2%.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Fri 7 Jun 24 at 09:33
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I think it will level out a lot on the day. Some 'soft' Labour voters who think Labour will win anyway might stay at home out of apathy or even as a protest if they are hard left. Similarly some righties who are leaning to Reform might be reminded that is a "vote for Labour" and come back into the fold.
OTH there is a bit of a movement gathering in social-media-land behind Vorderman's campaign to exterminate the Conservative party with tactical voting.
I suspect election polling is a bit like forecasting the British weather. Easy when things are stable, much harder when it's changeable/atypical.
Sunak seems to be auto-destructing.
Johnson knew it was necessary to appeal to the mass of basically centrist voters (aka decent ordinary people). Had he been able to stop himself lying and trampling on Parliamentary process, ending with sacking his own best people, he might still be there and may even be riding high. Of course he couldn't stop himself, because his narcissism overwhelms him and always has.
Sunak's thrown a bone to the mainly loyal, complacent over-65's that he has in the bag anyway, but the rest of his focus seems to be on ignorant, angry bigots and there simply aren't enough of them to put the Cons in government (cf. Oswald Mosley?) even if they hadn't broken everything over the last 14 years.
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The multiply disgraced Vaz is standing for a local party in Leicester East. His disgraced successor Claudia Webbe is also standing as an independent.
I wonder whether their combined vote would be sufficient for either to retain their deposit.
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I just hope that all these folk who say in polls that they are not voting Tory have also checked that they have correct voter ID !
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So Rishi rogers off back to the UK half way through the D-Day services to record a TV interview. Leaving Camaroon there with the President of France and POTUS.
WTF! Not only is that disrespectful, its political and electoral suicide! What the hell are the party planners doing in thinking that was a good thing to do!!!!!
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>>So Rishi rogers off back to the UK half way through the D-Day services
Incredible. At least somebody took steps to mitigate. Had Cameron not been there it would have been left to Starmer.
I think Sunak overrules his advisers. All fine if his judgement was any good, but it isn't.
Rumour is he was advised not keep shouting "Labour will put taxes up £2,000 for every household" in the debate, but did it anyway, knowing the Treasury had said he shouldn't use it in that way. As above he's in self-destruct mode.
Just heard Dorries on the News Agents pod. According to her, he went to see the King about the election before telling the wider cabinet or the '22 committee. Had he not done so, she says, enough would have triggered their no confidence letters, already lodged with Graham Brady, to depose him.
Not sure I believe that.
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He claims it was all set in stone weeks ago before the election was announced. But then the second day he went on an election interview with itv who said we didn't ask for that date no10 gave it to us.
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>> He claims it was all set in stone weeks ago
You need to be flexible, appointments like that can be changed. You never ever turn down the chance to appear with major world leaders, its publicity gold.
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>> He claims it was all set in stone weeks ago before the election was announced.
>> But then the second day he went on an election interview with itv who said
>> we didn't ask for that date no10 gave it to us.
What was set in stone? D Day hasn't changed. That day's been blocked out in the calendar for 80 years.
Jess Philiips found the words
"He shouldn't have been concerned with how it looked, he should have just known that it would be an actual insult to actual people who on this day matter more than him."
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>> So Rishi rogers off back to the UK half way through the D-Day services to
>> record a TV interview.
I noticed a quote somewhere: "My Dad spent more time than that on those beaches under much more difficult circumstances"
;-)
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Sunak got it wrong. He was ill advised or not advised at all. He apologised. Move on.
However that is not how the political game is played:
- the media have a story they want to make the most of
- other parties want to make a meal of it - genuine disgust or sanctimonious opportunism?
- can't even discount the possibility it was an anti-Rishi Tory plot
- had he stayed would he have been exploiting the event for maximum positive political exposure
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I'll let it go. He has admitted a mistake and apologised, however insincerely. That's progress.
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I wonder if the pre-election purdah rules were on his mind. After the dissolution of parliament he cannot make use of his position with government funding for party political reasons. So, he could stay as long as he had some official function but no longer than that.
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Seriously? He left because he wasn't allowed to do any electioneering?
I don't think that makes it better!
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Given the anniversary was self evident and the presence of POTUS and others, together with fact they'd be at Utah beach in the afternoon must have been arranged way before the GE.
So either his staff incolved in booking the TV interview were amongst those Farage don't understand the significance of D-Day or he overruled them.
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I think he/they thought the PM would get away with it and go to the conference early next week in Italy. How they thought that I don't know. Perhaps his advisors are all secret Labour fans.
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I'm pretty sure he overrules them. They can't all be gormless.
With the best will in the world, he has no antennae. He can't see the contradiction in apologising and then making excuses.
Having made the right decision to apologise, he needed to say "I cocked up. I do think remembering the sacrifice made by by the D Day forces is more important than anything else. I'm really sorry." And then shut up, and closed the subject.
Instead he goes on and on, and on, and on, eventually getting into a party political broadcast.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y3aX78fn0hM
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True, but dealing with a molehill in an incompetent and clumsy manner turns it into a mountain.
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I read somewhere that Dorries claimed Sunak went to the King before letting everyone else know. Can’t understand or believe that due to the logistics involved. If he told them first the letters would have piled in to Graham Brady.
But I do think he is purely looking after number one and had no care for the country or his party. In fact I think he would be quite delighted to lose his seat!
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I read somewhere that Dorries claimed Sunak went to the King before letting everyone else know.
I posted it Bobby. She said it on the News Agents podcast, on which she gave an interview. Maybe we should take into account she hates Sunak for conspiring against her beloved Boris.
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>> Mountains and molehills.
>>
The PM can certainly turn the latter into the former all by himself.
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I hear 'king Charles didn't attend the second day either and there seems to be some sort of protocol if he didn't go, then the PM shouldn't as well? However, the interview Rishi had used as an excuse was recorded for broadcast next Wednesday.
The plot thickens................................
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A quote from sky news
Today, one of his own advisers, Ian Acheson, has quit the Conservative Party - he said it had been outsourced to a "bunch of mendacious, incompetent and disreputable clowns".
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Full Telegraph story. The interview apparently was to defend the Labour £2,000 tax claim. I wonder if if will still see the light of day. I'm not sure he came out of that a winner.
archive.is/IIeb9
Good old Rishi. At last he's united the country. Against him. It would be without precedent but could they actually bin him? Mordaunt the Swordbearer hasn't had a go yet.
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this is deffo the molehill that has sealed Rishis fate, he is toast.
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Passed to me yesterday...
"Attention all 18 year olds.
Sunak wants you to give up a year for national service, when he couldn't even give up an afternoon!"
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Although I agree Sunak's early departure was a serious misjudgement (especially during an election campaign), I think the opportunistic and cheap political point-scoring that has followed has demeaned those involved.
Are those joining the pile-on serious about earning the respect and support of voters?
P.S. I won't be voting Tory on July 4th, but that decision was made months ago.
Last edited by: James Loveless on Sat 8 Jun 24 at 16:52
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>> Although I agree Sunak's early departure was a serious misjudgement (especially during an election campaign),
>> I think the opportunistic and cheap political point-scoring that has followed has demeaned those involved.
There's an election on and point scoring is part of the deal.
However it's only just over 48 hours since Sunak got home and less than 36 since his apology. It was bound to feature in last night's debate and Penny Mordaunt (that hair!!) was sailing very close to disloyalty.
If it's still leading the news on Monday you might have a point.
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>> Really good article showing what happened behind the scenes.
+1 read it on my tablet while eating my Premier Inn brekky this morning.
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www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjmmrwexv4ko
Really.
How long would it have taken for the Nazis to turn on the UK after they had conquered the rest of Europe?
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Poland had a non-aggression treaty with Germany. That turned out OK.
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Oh great - he is the candidate for the next constituency along the coast!
From the Telegraph - I can't verify the claims so use a big pinch of salt...
He has allegedly written:
"the country would be “far better” if it had “taken Hitler up on his offer of neutrality” instead of fighting the Nazis."
"women were the “sponging gender” and should be “deprived of health care”."
"Sir Winston Churchill, the wartime prime minister, was “abysmal” and praised Vladimir Putin."
He claims his remarks about women were “tongue in cheek”.
“Britain would be in a far better state today had we taken Hitler up on his offer of neutrality … but oh no Britain’s warped mindset values weird notions of international morality rather than looking after its own people.”
re women: “Do you think you could actually work and pay for it all too like good citizens?"
“Men pay 80 per cent of tax – women spend 80 per cent of tax revenue. On aggregate, as a group, you only take from society."
“Less complaining please from the ‘sponging gender’.”
"women “subsidised by men to merely breathe” and in January 2022 he also posted: “Men pay 80% of tax. Women take out 80% of expenditures."
“Square that inequality first by depriving women of healthcare until their life expectancies are the same as men, fair’s fair.”
he reportedly wrote female soldiers “almost made me wretch (sic)” and were a “total liability”.
In the run-up to the invasion of Ukraine, he praised Putin, writing in January 2022 that he had “shown a maturity of which we can only dream of”.
Re Putin: he allegedly wrote “if only the West had politicians of his class”.
Gawd!
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Perhaps in place of 'Reform' they should be honest and use the party name 'National Front'?
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Deputy leader of Reform was on Times Radio this morning. The entire interview was taken up with this, nothing about the actual policies.
CWOT.
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Sunak is completely dead in the water if Reform go into polling day with even a moderate level of support. It turns the possibility of a hung parliament into a huge Labour majority.
With Farage at the helm, and his recent rhetoric, the probability of some sort of "arrangement" (eg: not competing the same seats) seems implausible.
Sunak has a difficult balancing act. Smear the policies and he alienates ex-supporters who have defected. Smear the leadership and perhaps the defectors will be lured back into the Tory fold.
Reform do not have a coherent set of policies, more a catalogue of sound bites. So any interview inevitably leads to "play the player, not the ball".
LibDem seem increasingly attractive - at least they have a policy on Europe (hidden on page 100+) which the two major parties want to airbrush for fear of upsetting their voters.
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>> With Farage at the helm, and his recent rhetoric, the probability of some sort of
>> "arrangement" (eg: not competing the same seats) seems implausible.
AIUI nominations closed on Friday so any 'arrangement' would be down to asking voters to ignore one candidate on the ballot and vote for another.
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A combination of a reasonable Reform vote and tactical "get rid of the Tories" voting could practically annihilate the Conservative Party and make the LibDems the official opposition.
I don't think that will happen if Labour's polling remains so strong. Anecdotally some habitual potential Labour voters are saying they will vote Green, on the basis that Labour will win anyway. A lot of eco-minded people don't trust the major parties on net zero and environment generally. Other Labour voters will simply reason that Labour can win without them and stay at home.
Add in 'secret Tories', the ones who are too embarrassed to say they will vote for them, and I can see the result being closer than the polls. (Some polls allow for this, presumably the ones showing the smaller Labour leads).
My vote will be tactical. Either for Labour or Lib Dem, whichever looks most likely to beat the Conservative at the postal vote deadline. Democracy isn't supposed to work that way but there seems to be little enthusiasm for PR/AV now.
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And our system also means you can vote for a party and the day after they are elected, that person can change party and there isn’t a thing the voter can do.
Not convinced Reform will only get MPs through the polling process.
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For Reform to win a seat they need to take votes from the Tories. It is unlikely they will take many from other parties - possibly a few red wall voters who don't buy into the Starmer story.
Reform need at least 50% of voters who would otherwise vote Tory, and only in constituencies with a very large Tory majority, such that having split the Tory vote Reform garner most votes.
Simple numbers - assume vote share in 2019 without Reform - Tory 70%, Labour 30%. 2024:
- assume many Tory voters shift to Labour giving 60%, 40% (20% swing)
- assume Reform split the Tory vote 35% to 25%
- Labour still win against Reform 40% to 35%
Reform may get 1 or 2 seats where unusual circumstances prevail - eg: possibly Farage, possibly if highly respected Tory MP has defected to Reform.
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I wouldn't take this as gospel, but it illustrates the tactical vote question quite well in the case of the new constituency I find myself in. The 2019 result is synthesised - we used to be in SW Herts which was if anything even more Tory IIRC. The forecast takes polls into account so is a mobile feast.
stopthetories.vote/parl/harpenden-and-berkhamsted#advice-explainer
Other tactical voting sites don't show the forecast but all are saying LibDem is the anti-Tory vote here.
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Just checked that site for here. Been a Tory seat with with a stonking majority since it was created in 2010. Boundary changes and current polling combine to put it in reach of Labour and that's the suggested tactical vote.
Mrs B and I are out leafletting at the weekend.
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Poor poor Rishi Sunak just doesn't have a clue!
He apparently went without Sky TV as a child so that his parents could afford to send him to Winchester College!
Honestly, many parents go without food so that they can afford to feed their kids - in this country, in this county, in this town!
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I'm sure, had his parents wanted Sky TV, they would have had it. As would I, but I never have either. Can I have a medal?
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>> I'm sure, had his parents wanted Sky TV, they would have had it. As would
>> I, but I never have either. Can I have a medal?
Poor Rishi.
We didn't even have a colour TV until 1971. And for some years before that there were only two channels...
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When I were a lad, we didn't even have a TV! (True, despite the nod to the "Yorkshiremen" sketch.)
No central heating, either.
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>> I'm sure, had his parents wanted Sky TV, they would have had it. As would
>> I, but I never have either.
>>
...it does beg the question "how did Rupert manage to indoctrinate him, then?"
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It's clear some think a politician can have no empathy for those less fortunate unless:
- coming from a one parent family,
- raised in a slum beset by exploitative landlords,
- educated at the local sink school
- personally had to use a food bank to stave off hunger
- have a disability
- etc
Sunak was the product of educated and qualified immigrants in the 1960s - a qualified GP and chemist. Not privileged wealthy, but financially comfortable professionals. He did not want for the basic necessities (as do some).
His parents gave him an excellent education. The sacrifices made would have been very middle class - perhaps expensive holidays, premium car, or even Sky TV subscriptions. I doubt he ever went hungry or cold.
On balance I favour politicians from a blend backgrounds - a party comprising only the less fortunate in life would be as skewed and dis-functional as one populated by only wealthy elites.
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>> It's clear some think a politician can have no empathy for those less fortunate unless:
>>
I think the issue is that he's claiming life was hard for him when it wasn't.
There are memes of people opening up charity Just Giving accounts to get him Sky! :-D
Parents make sacrifices. I went without a foreign holiday, downgraded from the Audi, didn't buy the house I wanted etc. etc. etc. in the 2010's and early 2020's because I paid for Miss Z's public school fees, her uni accom. her elective (NZ) and Master Z's uni accom and I still have a mortgage which would have been paid off by now if I didn't do the above. It's what parents do.
>>On balance I favour politicians from a blend backgrounds - a party comprising only the less
>>fortunate in life would be as skewed and dis-functional as one populated by only wealthy elites.
Makes perfect sense and it's similar for me in business - when I look at a company I want to see a balance of skills within the board / management.
Last edited by: zippy on Wed 12 Jun 24 at 18:16
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“ I think the issue is that he's claiming life was hard for him when it wasn't”
He claimed nothing of the sort. Listen to the interview.
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>> “ I think the issue is that he's claiming life was hard for him when
>> it wasn't”
>>
>> He claimed nothing of the sort. Listen to the interview.
>>
He might not have used those words but the implication is clearly there.
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Nowhere in that interview does claim life was hard for him or for that come anywhere near to claiming that When repeatedly questioned by the interviewer for anything he had done without he mentions Sky TV.
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>> Nowhere in that interview does claim life was hard for him or for that come
>> anywhere near to claiming that When repeatedly questioned by the interviewer for anything he had
>> done without he mentions Sky TV.
>>
>>
That's why rarely listen to these interviews, the questions are often meaningless and trivial. When it was Blair v Major in '97 the media went gaga trying to find out which of them could name the most Spice Girls.
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I agree Terry. Might be nothing to do with his background, the prattishness could be innate.
I don't mind having a few toffs. But decent ones please. That Benn bloke...and Footie of course. Decent coves.
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Am I imaging it but wasn’t there a clip of Mr Sunak at a shop self checkout not knowing how it worked…didn’t know how to scan a chocolate bar and pay for it.
Hope I’m wrong, but if not it shows how far from reality his world is.
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>>Am I imaging it but wasn’t there a clip of Mr Sunak at a shop self checkout not knowing how it
>> worked…didn’t know how to scan a chocolate bar and pay for it.
>>Hope I’m wrong, but if not it shows how far from reality his world is.
www.independent.co.uk/tv/news/rishi-sunak-contactless-fail-video-b2043035.html
Last edited by: zippy on Wed 12 Jun 24 at 22:54
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>> www.independent.co.uk/tv/news/rishi-sunak-contactless-fail-video-b2043035.html
Given the variations in set up of self serve EPOS, Anyone here not had a moment of mystery trying to scan, bag and pay for their stuff?
Take most people on here to the states to fill up and pay your car fuel, and I'll bet most will be flummoxed.
I liked Cameron, despite his toff upbringing, a down to earth wife, and disabled child meant he was in touch with real life. Even the likes of Benn and Foot, were not '"working class" in their life experiences,
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>>Am I imaging it but wasn't there a clip of Mr Sunak at a shop self checkout not knowing how it worked...didn't know how to scan a chocolate bar and pay for it.
Hope I'm wrong, but if not it shows how far from reality his world is.
Erm, I wouldn't know (or want to know) how to do that either.
:o}
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>> Erm, I wouldn't know (or want to know) how to do that either.
>>
>> :o}
>>
Seriously ? You’ve never used a self scan at your local Coop to buy your Rice Crispies :-)
I bet you don’t pay for your beer with your phone either, and don’t have flight tickets in the wallet on your phone :-) :-)
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>>Seriously ? You’ve never used a self scan at your local Coop to buy your Rice Crispies :-)
I bet you don’t pay for your beer with your phone either, and don’t have flight tickets in the wallet on your phone :-) :-)
Nope, nope, and nope. The ole woman uses online banking so I leave that 'stuff' to her.
It may sir prize ewe to learn that I haven't been near-nor-buy a supermarket in 26 years :o)
I used to do all the shopping in Safeways of Bohemia Rd. branch in Hastings back in the day.
Wifey does all the shopping (with a little help from Amazon) (why would it take two, baby) while I look after the 'man stuff'.
:o}
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>> Am I imaging it but wasn’t there a clip of Mr Sunak at a shop
>> self checkout not knowing how it worked…didn’t know how to scan a chocolate bar and
>> pay for it.
>> Hope I’m wrong, but if not it shows how far from reality his world is.
I can (and do) use self checkouts, but wouldn't have a clue how to run the country. What's it to do with the price of fish?
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>> I can (and do) use self checkouts, but wouldn't >>have a clue how to run the country.
I've not used self checkouts yet, but would be happy to do their work for them.
The usual staff discount would suffice.
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To be fair, lots of people don't use technology, for all kinds of reasons. A mate had never used self scanning before I introduced him to it on a trip away - he just wasn't confident to do it - but now realises just how much time and effort it saves him. My sis won't use contactless, partly through concern over misuse. Even I usually have a backup access to travel docs etc ever since my phone died late at night shortly after landing in France at the start of a solo European road trip - with the details of my first hotel (and navigation to get there) on it.
I used to like self scanning in supermarkets for the lack of queues as much as anything, but that's changing!!
:-) at Clk Sec, but you do realise that you can scan then pack straight from the shelf into your shopping bags with no need to queue at checkouts while someone wants to have a bit of a chat with the till operator then unpack your trolley onto the conveyor and pack it all into your bags once scanned. It's a massive time saver.
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I think most scanning systems have improved materially over the last decade.
Previously I might use a scanner for one or two items - but not for a weeks shopping. The chances are it would throw a wobbly on a few items (out of the 50-80 being scanned).
Alcohol immediately needs assistant - despite each scanner often possessing a camera, AI technology is well advanced - it needs no human intervention to realise I won't see 50 again.
Then - call for attention - wait for assistant to finish a conversation with a colleague, sort out the other three self service scanners - watch the slow walk to my problem - wave a magic card, problem solved!
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Blimey, I (we) have had a personal* letter from Rishi Sunak, warning me of dire consequences if I vote Reform.
*Dear 'my first name' 'her first name'
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>> Blimey, I (we) have had a personal* letter from Rishi Sunak, warning me of dire
>> consequences if I vote Reform.
>>
>> *Dear 'my first name' 'her first name'
Isn't mail merge wonderful..
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The thing of note is, this is the first time we have been mailed in this way, best we normally get is leafleted.
I know why, this is a safe Tory seat, well it was, but the gap to labour is now in the mid single digits according to the polls. If the tories lose 5% to reform, labour gets in. And thats the rub, reform might get one or two seats at most, but they will cost the Tories 100's.
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>> I know why, this is a safe Tory seat, well it was, but the gap
>> to labour is now in the mid single digits according to the polls. If the
>> tories lose 5% to reform, labour gets in. And thats the rub, reform might get
>> one or two seats at most, but they will cost the Tories 100's.
Same scenario here.
Seat has been Tory since it was created. Held by a Cabinet Member who has stood down. Her replacement has no name recognition locally. Reform are standing. Last time they stood UKIP got a derisory vote but in 2015 it was close to 10%. Area voted leave.
Wonder if mine is in the post. Given we have different surnames I wonder if we would get separate letters from Rishi?
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According to a survey in the 'i' today 46% of Conservative voters think the Cons should merge with Reform.
This seems insane. Whilst it would 'remove' the competition, what would they want with a load of Lee-Anderson-type, Europe-hating racists? Reform is the bin they need to put them in. Sure, they are splitting the vote but it's only a protest vote and it surely fade away in time like UKIP.
Sunak seems to have given up pretending he can win, and is pleading with voters not to let them be eradicated. The idea that we need 200 of them to provide opposition is risible. A working majority is just that, whether it's the 80 seats that they had after 2019 or 200. How many Cons does it take to shout "You have no plan!"?
Meanwhile, has the Swordbearer completely lost it?
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An apt description of Farage:
"Farage no more wants responsibility than he wants a vegan cigarette,"
"It’s all about him, full of anger and problems. Zero solutions."
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According to The Sun's readers:
Voting intentions are as follows:
Reform: 49.7%
Conservative: 25.8%
Labour: 16.0%
Lib Dems 2.4%
Greens: 1.7%
Another Party: 4.3%
I am sure that this is 100% reliable. ;-D
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"Another Party: 4.3%" I bet one of those gets Boris's vote :-)
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Just found ours it the post box.
Now he's lying to me personally. He hasn't given his address. Does anyone have it? I'd like to send him a personalised reply.
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Thought you'd know - 10 Downing St ATM :-)
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10 Downing St, London SW1A 2AA
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>> Thought you'd know - 10 Downing St ATM :-)
The way the post is ATM I'd send it qwuick or you'll be relying on Kier Starmer to forward it on.
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He's using my private address, I'd like to use his.
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His constituency home is a large and prominent building pictures of which are widely published.
Was it Stop Oil or some other green campaign that got on his roof?
I cannot immediately find a street/door number but it's in a village called Kirby Sigston.
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>> He's using my private address, I'd like to use his.
Which one? The five-bedroom mews house in Kensington, the pied-à-terre apartment in South Kensington’s Old Brompton Road, the 12 acre Grade II-listed Georgian Manor house in Kirby Sigston, or maybe the penthouse apartment on Ocean Avenue Santa Monica?
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Sadly just sacked a friend of many years over this.
Met for a beer and got chatting over all sorts then the election came up.
He said he will be voting for Ian Gribbin, he's right about Hitler, we wouldn't have all the Js in this country if we were friends with him or all the other P*kis and m*sl*ms.
He has never, ever, shown any racist tendencies before and to be honest, I am seriously upset, I've known him since I was 11.
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>> Sadly just sacked a friend of many years over this.
I met a work colleague from several years ago in London last September. She used to come down to reunions with other folks at the pub but she's no longer comfortable in that environment - hearing troubles/tinnitus. We met at Euston and walked down to/around Regents Park.
Conversation ranged over many areas but it became apparent that she's swallowed quite a few conspiracy type theories around Covid and World Finance etc. Still a lovely person to see but I was surprised as I'd always thought her very level headed and conventional.
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>> Sadly just sacked a friend of many years over this.
>>
>> Met for a beer and got chatting over all sorts then the election came up.
>>
Never ever talk politics or religion with friends…discuss the price of beer, cars, sport, trail shoes, walking trips, potential days out…
Some subjects are taboo..
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Never ever talk politics or religion with friends…discuss the price of beer, cars, sport, trail
>> shoes, walking trips, potential days out…
>> Some subjects are taboo..
>>
>>
Same here, some topics are best avoided.
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Some subjects are best avoided
Yep. I always keep to global warming, modern jazz, electric cars, the work of Tracy Emen, veganism and the benefits of nuclear power.
I like to avoid controversy
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>> You missed brexit
>> Did I?
When did that happen?
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2029, under Prime Minister Sir Nigel Farage, and Foreign Secretary The Right Honourable Lee Anderson.
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>> Yep. I always keep to global warming, modern jazz, electric cars, the work of Tracy
>> Emen, veganism and the benefits of nuclear power.
Still in trouble with an out spoken (aren't they all), vegan environmentalist I know.
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Wes Streeting, on the media round this morning, refused to rule out reform/revaluation in Council Tax:
www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/16/wes-streeting-fails-to-rule-out-council-tax-rise-if-labour-wins-election
The Conservatives have said they won't change it.
Is anyone actually willing to defend the current situation where the liability for Buckingham Palace is less than a seventies semi in a Midlands dormitory village?
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The vast bulk of council income comes from central govt - the local taxation is a
Should people pay for council services, or should their properties?
Obviously a poll tax is a non-starter, so how about local income tax?
Last edited by: Lygonos on Sun 16 Jun 24 at 16:51
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Of itself, would it change very much? My house will still be roughly in the same part of the distribution when everything is revalued.
Odd to think it was only rated in 2021/2, at 1991 values AIUI. But how that works I don't know. I didn't get a number, they just told me its band.
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>> Of itself, would it change very much? My house will still be roughly in the
>> same part of the distribution when everything is revalued.
It would or at least could/should.
My point is that the top band is houses over £320,000. Today, my ordinary 4 bed estate detached is worth more than that.
If the bands extended to homes well over a million with values over a greater number of bands then I suspect those of us in ordinary houses would be no worse off and possibly better.
Regular revaluations would be a statutory requirement, not something a Minister could postpone becuase it was politically inconvenient.
The 'tone of the list' issue which means a £ on Band D in Westminster raises way more than a £ in Stockton on Tees also needs to be addressed.
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>>
>>
>> The 'tone of the list' issue which means a £ on Band D in Westminster
>> raises way more than a £ in Stockton on Tees also needs to be addressed.
>>
>>
Under the present system as I understand it, council tax is collected by the local authority and used to fund local services. So an borough like Tower Hamlets, which will incur much higher spending on social services than Westminster will need to set a higher rate. To make it fairer the money would have to be collected by central government and distributed accordingly.
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Was Rishi telling the truth about not having Sky.
Look closely at this photo. I see a Sky dish!
maps.app.goo.gl/KuomYNetGx68enre8
:-D
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Around here we have several single old people (some are trying to downsize) paying band "F" council tax.
It doesn't seem fair because they are paying much more than a family of 4 in a small terrace on band "B". Especially true when some of those terraces in recently gentrified areas of the town now sell for much more than houses here (DFLs want to be near the stations).
The thing that annoyed me about the poll tax was that if one half of a married couple couldn't pay, the other seemed to be responsible (am I remembering this right)?
I also don't think it took ability to pay in to account?
Perhaps a local percentage based income tax is the answer.
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Every approach to raising council tax will create objections - it is not a rational debate as there will always be winners and losers.
Possibilities based on - value of property, income of residents, number of people (adults and/or children. May need to be flexed depending on collection of business rates, central government funding, average price of property in the area etc.
What all governments fear with some justification is that any attempt to change it will re-ignite disruptive poll tax riots. So none will put head above the parapet to change anything!!
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What all governments fear with some justification is that any attempt to change it will
>> re-ignite disruptive poll tax riots. So none will put head above the parapet to change
>> anything!!
>>
I believe Wales are going to change their CT system.
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>> Under the present system as I understand it, council tax is collected by the local
>> authority and used to fund local services. So an borough like Tower Hamlets, which will
>> incur much higher spending on social services than Westminster will need to set a higher
>> rate. To make it fairer the money would have to be collected by central government
>> and distributed accordingly.
The last bit I think is probably essential although the Council Tax only covers only a proportion of the Council's overall spend of which Social Care is the biggy. The rest is grants etc from Central Government.
Band D in Tower Hamlets is around £1675 whereas here in West Northants it's £2275 so I guess £1 on band D there raises a lot more than it does here.
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>Is anyone actually willing to defend the current situation...
How can you defend making an old couple in their 70's living in a draughty 300 year old house, with one of them a cancer sufferer and claiming state handouts, pay more in council tax than a family in a home built to much more modern energy efficient standards with central heating, double glazing etc. etc.
I can see the newspaper headlines already.
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Been out and about quite a bit over the weekend including a couple of dinners out / beers.
The number of people who seem to be pro Reform is quite eye-opening.
Even in the town where Ian Gribbin (doesn't think women deserve to use the NHS) is a candidate, a couple of women commented how good Reform would be.
It's a crazy world and elections seem to bring them all out.
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55% of England voted for Brexit
A good chunk of them are xenophobic bigots.
Reform attracts them from across the spectrum, not just the Tories.
The red wall guys who voted Tory last time 'to get Brexit done', and who have been predictably shafted by their blue rosette overlords, will be just as happy to vote Reform to stick it to the Tories.
And the furriners.
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>> How can you defend making an old couple in their 70's living in a draughty
>> 300 year old house, with one of them a cancer sufferer and claiming state handouts,
>> pay more in council tax than a family in a home built to much more
>> modern energy efficient standards with central heating, double glazing etc. etc.
I'm not sure I understand that post.
What you say sounds very much like the arguments against the rates that gave birth to the Poll Tax. To some extent it applies to Council Tax too, or did at the outset when the bands bore some resemblance to the market.
Pensioners on 'state handouts', by which I assume you mean income based Pension Credit, would not pay Council Tax at all - it's covered by Council Tax Reduction.
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Whooooooooosshhhhhhh!!!!!
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Royal Whooooooooooooooooshhhhhhh!!!!
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>> Royal Whooooooooooooooooshhhhhhh!!!!
I assume Kevin meant that an exercise to revalue would increase the already present injustice for those living past retirement age in older, relatively high value, family homes.
If the present system was retained on that basis then I accept that the hypothetical widow keeping the family home for grandkids/memories could be a loser.
Any system that taxes property values has that issue. When I was a kid we lived in a well to do suburb of Leeds in an interwar large 4 bed detached property. Mum and Dad both had good professional jobs and Dad was well into Higher Rate Tax.
On the corner at No2 lived a widow born in the Nineteenth century and who had lived there since she and her husband bought in in the thirties. She paid much the same in rates as Mum and Dad.
Loss on that scale needs mitigation but 'what about the Mrs Barrets of this world' is a poor excuse to keep what we have now.
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Even Bigger royal WOOOOOOSH>>
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Royal Mail posted flyer this time
"my first name" "her first name"
Big pic of Kier doing a kitchener meme
KIER STARMER NEEDS YOU to vote reform
It's another tory warning. I am getting really really offended by these orders and warnings, its having completely the opposite effect to its intention.
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Perhaps the flyer is intended for Tory supporters who have defected and intend to put a tick in the Reform box.
They may actually be persuaded by the message that "a vote for Reform is a vote for Sir Kier" -unlikely if the recipient is already a Labour or LibDem advocate.
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>> Royal Mail posted flyer this time
Pressure really ramping up here, just had a phone call, asking for me by name, in the guise of "market research". One of the questions - "On a scale of 1-10, would you vote for Reform if you knew it would cost the conservative party 100 seats"
They are clearly very worried about losing this seat.
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>> Pressure really ramping up here, just had a phone call, asking for me by name,
Another (possible) benefit of losing the landline; not in the directory.
I suspect however given I've had the same mobile number since 1996 that information available to purchase would flush me out.
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Not had the phone call but we're getting the same treatment here. The Starmer/Kitchener flyer this morning, addressing us by first name. It's Mr Manatee to you Sunak.
He's barking up the wrong tree. StatisticalIy I suppose they're right to assume I am a Tory voter, but if I were, and minded to punish the Cons, he's just confirmed the best way for a Conservative voter to do it.
I have a much better plan than voting Reform. I'm quite hopeful we can get the LibDem in.
And what's all the supermajority nonsense? Let's get them annihilated, totally. 2015-2024 must never happen again.
Sunak promised honest politics. Then he reappointed Braverman. From there it's only got worse.
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>> I have a much better plan than voting Reform. I'm quite hopeful we can get
>> the LibDem in.
I am firmly in the tactical voting camp in any way that will kick the Tories up the bottom. Except voting reform. labour, libs, greens, indy, anyone but Reform.
Keeping an eye on the local polls, looks like Labour will be best bet. Pity, our tory candidate,a local, is a doctor with a good record in mental health, and has pushed himself on to as many parliamentary committees in this area as he can. And there is the rub, a few good babies are out with the bathwater.
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John Deadwood said he won't be standing again here so they brought in a lady from not around here, who so far hasn't made much impact, on me at least.
One of her first missives, which may have been a tweet or FB post, said how much she was looking forward to representing the people of Woking instead of Wokingham. A little careless, and a source of mucho amusement on local social media.
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I'm ya typical swivel-eyed racist homophobic zenophobic bigot who leans towards Farridge (as paddy from the bogs calls 'im) but,
My man Mann (Scott) here in godforsaken Cornwall is a good MP and he has helped the ole woman on numerous occasions so, I'm in a bit of a dilemma as to who to give my vote to.
At the end-of-the-day neither parties have a hope in hell of gaining power so I 'spose it doesn't really matter at all at all.
Dog sitting on the fence (you can say I've got no sense)
Last edited by: Dog on Tue 18 Jun 24 at 16:28
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I won't be voting this time. We'll be on holiday on the 4th and just haven't the enthusiasm to register for a postal vote and at least I'll have the satisfaction of being able to say "Well I didn't vote for 'em".
We have the choice of a Labour candidate who was an advisor to Ed Miliband, lives in London, probably couldn't point to Basingstoke on a map and has been begging for donations on Youtube. The Lib Dem is a wannabe who's been trying to climb on the councillor/MP gravy train everywhere from Newcastle to Stoke and who's only claim to fame is that he once helped his local councillor in Leeds get some traffic lights installed. The sitting Conservative has been taking the P for donkey's years and done sweet FA for Basingstoke except feed the gullible with bovine excrement. We have a local fruit cake who's tried before as a UKIPer but is now having a go as an independent. And then there's a Reformer who I've never heard of and a Green who is as clueless as the rest of his party.
The Monster Raving Loonies have missed a trick - they'd have won here.
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>> I won't be voting this time. We'll be on holiday on the 4th and just
>> haven't the enthusiasm to register for a postal vote
We did years ago, when we knew we'd be away. Turns up every time, even after moving house!
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>> Even Bigger royal WOOOOOOSH>>
>>
Could you explain?
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>> >> Even Bigger royal WOOOOOOSH>>
>> >>
>>
>> Could you explain?
The couple kevin described live here
www.doogal.co.uk/ShowMap?postcode=SW1A%201AA
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Ahh gotcha.
Well done Kevin..
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It'd passed me by too Bromps :-)
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Came through my letter box, stating there are no tory councillors in the area. There are thirteen, exactly the same number of labour and lib-dem.
They've lost the plot round here. The mayors post used to be held by a lib-dem, but he lost it at the last mayoral election to the tories. Since then the lib-dems have become a tory bashing party, instead of dealing with local issues - which they were very good at.
I used to support them, but not now they're telling porkies. If they can lie about one thing, then I reckon they can lie about everything.
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>>
>>
>> I used to support them, but not now they're telling porkies. If they can lie
>> about one thing, then I reckon they can lie about everything.
>>
Politicians lie because we want them to. If anyone stood up and said, "Sorry but the economy is in serious trouble that will take a decade to sort out and in the meantime we'll have to cut spending across the board and raise income tax" every on would run a mile and instead vote for the guy promising Utopia.
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That's election promises and no-one believes them. This was a downright lie and easily de-bunked. I suspect it was to try and make the tories seem insufficient (do they need any help?).
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>Ahh gotcha.
Sorry Bromp, I thought you'd twig.
I must tone down the subtle humour for which us Yorkshiremen are world renowned.
Last edited by: Kevin on Tue 18 Jun 24 at 10:12
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>> Sorry Bromp, I thought you'd twig.
Being somebody who does benefits etc for a living I got stuck in the weeds.
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I'd like to vote labour, but our local candidate had been investigated twice for voting 'irregularities' and when a councillor, they were placed as a school governor. At a meeting was minuted as something like: "the problem with this school is there are too many middle aged, middle cless, white women teachers".
I could be classed as ageist, bigoted, racist, misogynistic, but not that much!
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Seems to be a way of saying the governors lacked diversity, which is actually quite a woke thing to say?
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Labour suspends their candidate in North Aberdeenshire
Anti-Semitic & Pro Russian stance years back.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0vvjzw5ejno
All Parties - You wonder how they get through vetting
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>> Labour suspends their candidate in North Aberdeenshire
That seat's doubly troubled as the Tory is Douglas Ross who replaced a candidate already in place but ejected due to health issues. Ross is also subject to allegations over expenses and has had to promise to stand down from Holyrood if elected to Westminster.
Boundary changes mean it's may not be straightforward to call on past performance but I think Labour votes will go to the SNP who were a not that distant second last time.
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Douglas Ross expenses cleared.
He could claim expenses for flights to/from Inverness or Aberdeen - his home is between them apparently.
He changed a flight returning to Glasgow which is a cheaper airfare from London.
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With one police officer and potentially a couple of conservative MPs betting on when the election would be after allegedly knowing when it would be shows the utter contempt that some of those in authority have for the law!
In context, at work we have to take exam after exam on insider trading and corruption and the consequences are made clear if the break the rules.
Police and MPs are the law makers and law enforcers. They must have known what they were doing was wrong. It's disgusting and if found guilty - I hope the book is thrown at them - as it has been done to bankers who were found to break the rules.
Last edited by: zippy on Thu 20 Jun 24 at 18:47
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I don't think there's much they can do to the advisors and their relatives. Police officer is a different matter.
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>> I don't think there's much they can do to the advisors and their relatives. Police
>> officer is a different matter.
>>
Police officer - misconduct in public office - max sentence = life in prison.
The others, it's fraud IMHO, but would likely be prosecuted under S42 of the Gambling act - max sentence = 2 years: www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2005/19/section/42
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>> Police officer - misconduct in public office - max sentence = life in prison.
>>
>> The others, it's fraud IMHO, but would likely be prosecuted under S42 of the Gambling
>> act - max sentence = 2 years: www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2005/19/section/42
>>
I agree legal action should follow.
What I find bizarre is that (a) they have so little regard for obvious standards of integrity, and (b) that the amounts bet were apparently so small - the officers bet was £100.
I don't know what the odds were, but given the risk of compromising a career and prosecution, I would want to bet a great deal more.
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>> The others, it's fraud IMHO, but would likely be prosecuted under S42 of the Gambling
>> act - max sentence = 2 years: www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2005/19/section/42
>>
I'm not sure that one fits, but time will tell.
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If they knew the election date when they placed the bet, then it's cheating under some law or other, <2 years chokey.
Inside information such as the advice that has been provided to Sunak might however be treated like information about a horse from the trainer - the horse hasn't actually won so the event is not decided.
Craig wotsisname declined to say whether he knew the date when he placed the bet. Not sure about the other two.
Whatever, one "closest adviser", the election campaign manager, and a candidate who happens to be married to the campaign manager - not a good look when Sunak promised integrity, professionalism, and accountability at every level.
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There are one or two lobby hacks involved as well.
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TBH, they will get punished, by screwing up their chances of doing much in politics again. Cept the copper of course, No need to prosecute him, he will get the elbow as well and maybe lose his pension.
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I reckon it shows the contempt they have for authority, however, bearing in mind that gambling debts are debts in honour only and bookies have been known to refuse to pay out winnings........................................
I suspect the bookies were keen to know who placed those bets and what they knew.
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Item on the radio this morning said bets on a July election were bumping along consistently at around £1000 a day.
In the 48hours before Sunak's Drowning St speech they suddenly went up to £8-10k/day prompting an inquiry by the Gambling Commission.
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Before it was announced there had been a recall of ministers arranged - entirely possible people saw that and headed to the bookies without actually knowing for sure.
Hence the weenie bets that were put on.
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Absolutely. A spike like that could happen on a rumour.
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I guess the bets were placed using their credit cards so easy to trace.
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And I understand another Labour MP has been suspended for having different number plates on her car.
Noted when one slipped apparently.
Can't find details at the mo.
Edit---
Can't they just be honest - is it really too much to ask?
Last edited by: zippy on Thu 27 Jun 24 at 01:29
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>And I understand another Labour MP has been suspended for having different number plates on her car.
Rhianon Passmore, a Labour Senedd member. One number plate fell off and revealed another set underneath. One set is a false number that has never been issued and the other is for an untaxed vehicle. She has previous with motoring offences for failing to provide for a DUI.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cekk99e3yjeo
>Can't they just be honest - is it really too much to ask?
No and apparently Yes.
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Narcissistic and unable to stick a number plate on straight. There'll be a job in the motor trade for her.
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She's been cleared. The car had a personal plate taped over the original plates. Both plates refer to the same car. Adhesive tape let. Resolved by Police within a few hours. Stupid rather than criminal. She's a member of Wales' Senedd.
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>> She's been cleared. The car had a personal plate taped over the original plates. Both
>> plates refer to the same car. Adhesive tape let. Resolved by Police within a few
>> hours. Stupid rather than criminal. She's a member of Wales' Senedd.
I read a report that the top plate was a registration that had never been issued and the hidden one was for an untaxed car.
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That's what I read also. Wales Online I think but my guess is that they'd just reported what was on the Guido Fawkes website.
I suspect that she was in the process of transferring a personal plate onto the car and didn't wait until she'd got the OK from DVLA that the transfer was complete. The original number would be reserved for when she sells the car and therefore show as unissued and if the personal plate was on another vehicle then she's probably claimed back the unused tax on that.
The statement from plod doesn't actually say that she hasn't (technically) committed an offense though.
"The car remains on private property and as such, no offence has been identified. The owner of the car is aware of the matter."
Which I take to mean 'As long as she doesn't take it out of the car park until the DVLA paperwork has gone through we've got better things to do.'
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Phillip Davies, Tory MP for Shipley, has disclosed that he placed an £8000 bet on himself losing his seat. Given his majority in 2019 was around 6,000 I don't think he'll need to put much effort into 'throwing' the fixture!!
IIRC it used to be safely Tory held by Marcus Fox until 1997.
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The media, keen to reflect public opinion, keep telling us that elected representatives (MPs) don't understand the challenges "ordinary" people face.
The betting, number plate, fiddled expenses, extra marital affairs etc demonstrates the media is utterly wrong.
MPs are like many they represent - dishonest, unprincipled, lacking integrity, greedy, etc.
I find this almost re-assuring - they are not a rare breed of homo-sapiens behaving with incorruptible perfection - they are normal!!
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The mistake is to think that all politicians are the same. There are good and honourable ones, even in the Conservative party, although not as many as there were before Johnson kicked some out. Unfortunately they are not the ones presently at the top of it, who are completely without honour.
They even renamed their 'Conservative Press' X account last night as "Tax Check UK" and pretended it was a fact check account. They are utterly desperate, dishonest, and deserve to lose heavily.
In other news, it looks as if the LibDems could win in Harpenden & Berkhamsted - they are currently leading the poll here, subject to all the assumptions, calculating and redistribution that goes into it. I have cast my vote accordingly. They have spent a fortune on flyers and newsletters, and are the only ones knocking on doors. The Conservative sent one flyer in every colour but blue. Very honourable. Labour has been invisible.
I actually think the Cons will do better than their polling. Many who think their own interest lies with the Cons will vote for them but are ashamed to admit it. But I still hope for almost total annihilation.
The debate last night was tedious, but told a story. Sunak's message, such as it was, seemed targeted on wavering members of his own cult and likely Reform voters. It certainly doesn't appeal to Labour voters to say you are going to finance tax cuts by squeezing welfare.
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The thing with Sunak, right back to the leadership election after they sacked Boris, is how rude he is in debate constantly interrupting and shouting over his opponent.
He was at it then and same yesterday with Starmer over small boats.
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To be fair Starmer did his share of overtalking, but maybe Rishi won on that one overall.
What Starmer was not able to do was answer very specific questions, the boats being one of them seeing as you've mentioned it.
Manatee is probably right that welfare under the Tories would be "squeezed" but I heard it differently - people on benefits will be encouraged back to work, which doesn't seem too bad an idea, if they are capable (which I would believe quite a number are). The welfare bill has rocketed over the past few years due to all sorts of pressures and reining it back in would surely be a Labour policy too wouldn't it?
I'm in no doubt that the Tories are trying to hang onto the faithful rather than trying to recruit Labour voters. Would you really expect them to do otherwise in their position?
As a post script I wondered why they bothered having two of the public questioners in the analysis afterwards - who clearly each had an answer they were expecting but didn't hear those exact words from either side.
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Interestingly the yougov poll put them at 50/50 on who won the debate.
I can't say I've watched them, I keep forgetting they're on. By the sounds of it, I've not missed much.
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I think Labour are on track to put Maria Miller onto Basingstoke's dole queue. I'd be glad to see the back of Miller but don't trust Labour as far as I could throw 'em so it's a mixed blessing. Labour have certainly been putting a lot of effort and money into the local campaign. I think so far we've had four letters addressed personally from Starmer, Reeves and the candidate plus innumerable flyers being stuffed in the letterbox.
Earlier this week we had Starmer and his Dragon's Den sidekick shaking hands in town and a couple of days later they parked up the Labour 'Change' bus with Phillipson onboard.
From the Conservatives we've had one letter from Sunak and a whingeing flyer from Miller so I think they've already thrown in the towel here.
One flyer from the Greens and the Independent but I can't recall anything from the Lib-dems. The local candidate for Reform has already been kicked out of the party for failing to disclose that he was a BNP member.
www.basingstokegazette.co.uk/topics/general-election-2024/
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So far we've had a hand delivered flyer for an Independent and Mrs B has had one through the post from the Tory.
Labour are complaining that Royal Mail have screwed up and delivered leaflets for South Northamptonshire to addresses in Northampton South.
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The LDs have been by far the most active here in terms of leafleting, but unfortunately for them their candidate has been too ill to attend two recent hustings here. The Lab person was too il the other night too. Stand-ins were arranged.
We've not had any door harassment (yet) but then we are postal voters and it's too late now anyway - votes were cast by return of post - maybe they realise that. :-)
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>> We've not had any door harassment (yet) but then we are postal voters and it's
>> too late now anyway - votes were cast by return of post - maybe they
>> realise that. :-)
That's an interesting point about postal voters. Like you we voted pretty much on the day the ballots were delivered. That means that any literature now is too late.
I guess from a campaigning angle getting to in person voters close to polling day might be a productive thing.
The full version of the register i.e. the one used by the staff at the Polling Place, must have a marker for those registered for a postal vote as they're prohibited from voting in person. Is that marker also present on the register available to the candidates?
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On YouTube - but a dubious source so I won't link it here - especially as it's not repeated in the main media.
A home owner in Wales who put up an official "Reform" poster, was visited by the police as the poster was causing offence.
I think Reform as opportunistic scumbags but I don't think the police should get involved with political posters.
Last edited by: zippy on Fri 28 Jun 24 at 13:04
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I guess if it was reported as, say, a 'hate crime' the police would feel obliged to investigate.
Did they just ask questions?
Offer 'advice'?
Or tell him to remove or risk prosecution.
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Fri 28 Jun 24 at 13:16
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I don't know, but what if the same happened re Conservative or Labour posters?
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And Swinney has launched the SNP campaign bus.
What happened to the SNP motorhome?
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We still don’t know!!!
So far I think it’s a 3 year investigation into what started as an investigation into fraudulent use of £600k funds.
Something extremely fishy going on but no one seems to know where!
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>> We still don’t know!!!
Is there a trial date yet for Murrell?
Given that he's been charged and will presumably be tried by a jury there'll be tight limits on what can be said for fear of prejudicing his trial.
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I'm stealing that!!
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Fri 28 Jun 24 at 16:46
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Nope, no date.
Speculation ranges from police having unearthed huge fraud issues to it being nothing more than a dubious accounting issue.
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There has been some coverage re Labour and the 25% tax-free allowance on pensions. It seems that Labour are going to cancel the allowance within the first few years of office.
That is, after 55 one can withdraw 25% of their pension fund without paying tax.
Selfishly I am just over half-way between 55 and 60 and was looking to part retire, over the next year or so and then work part time, probably past 60 (say to 63).
Can one take the allowance sooner rather than later and still contribute towards a pension and is it still tax effective to do that - i.e. getting the 20% or 40% allowance - if I go part time it's probably the former.
(I had been told to take the allowance every year, reducing tax payable yearly. For example, if getting £20k p/a then use the allowance for everything above £12k annually rather than taking it all out at once - so future tax is reduced. If the allowance is removed then this is a moot point.)
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>> There has been some coverage re Labour and the 25% tax-free allowance on pensions. It
>> seems that Labour are going to cancel the allowance within the first few years of
>> office.
Are they?
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>>Are they?
Who knows, but there has been some coverage to suggest that this may happen, more by Labours not denying it, I think.
Last edited by: zippy on Fri 28 Jun 24 at 22:24
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I suspect the easier option will be to reduce the annual allowance from £60k
Taking money from pensioners' savings will go down like an osmium balloon.
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>>
>> I suspect the easier option will be to reduce the annual allowance from £60k
>>
>> Taking money from pensioners' savings will go down like an osmium balloon.
>>
With a large majority - they probably won't care - and it didn't hurt their re-election when G Brown removed the tax allowance on dividends for pension funds - accelerating the end of final salary pensions. Of course the Torys have done nothing to reverse this (as I have mentioned up-thread).
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I can't see it myself Zippy. Although there is a longstanding unfairness, arguably, in the 40% tax relief (which I attempted to take maximum advantage of).
Don't fall for all the surrender carp. The Cons are crumbling before our eyes and I'm beginning to think there is no way back for them. This is not necessarily a good thing.
The truth is most voters huddle around the centre, even if now and again they are a bit racist or jingoistic (or for that matter big fans of nationalisation and other characteristically socialist ideas.)
Both Labour and Cons for 60 years up to 2015 have found most of their support in the centre ground. Starmer is occupying that ground today. The Cons have veered way off to the right and, finding their popularity waning, have veered some more.
If Labour wins, Sunak will go. Should say Braverman or Badenoch get the job then don't expect them to move back to the centre. They might even absorb Reform. The centre right people have gone - Rory, Grieve, Clark, Gauke etc., and there's nobody left to drag the Cons back to reality.
You sound as if you really want to vote Conservative. Fair enough. Your nearest available vote to the one-nation-type Tories you might be imagining is almost certainly Labour.
Does that sound plausible? It does to me.
Yes there will be tax rises,, as there would be with the Cons. £2000 per household over a full term is actually not at all outlandish even if it were true. But there is no possibility IMO the Starmer is cynically hoodwinking the electorate only to turn UK into a Stalinist regime in the first term. What he sees as his mission needs at least two terms to take root.
The Blair government also adopted the fiscal rules of the previous Tory one in its first term. It didn't really start motoring for a good while, even though it started from a better place than where we are now.
Last edited by: Manatee on Sat 29 Jun 24 at 12:21
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>> You sound as if you really want to vote Conservative. Fair enough. Your nearest available
>> vote to the one-nation-type Tories you might be imagining is almost certainly Labour.
Er, no. Left of center all my life. I will be voting Labour.
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>> >> You sound as if you really want to vote Conservative. Fair enough. Your nearest
>> available
>> >> vote to the one-nation-type Tories you might be imagining is almost certainly Labour.
>>
>> Er, no. Left of center all my life. I will be voting Labour.
That's relief. I thought you'd been got at:)
Do you agree with me?
I'd actually rather the Cons came to their senses than became an Oswald Moseley tribute act.
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Since the Lord (Lady!) Advocate seems to be pro-SNP, the chances of a prosecution seem fairly low.
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It's a dodgy area to be asking on a general forum and don't depend on any replies but here's my take.
Are you talking about a SIPP? I have two of those. AIUI Each one has 25% tax free.
So with one of mine I take out modest amounts infrequently and I always take 25% of that drawdown tax free. Their min drawdown is £5k so only £3750 is subject to tax.
I wanted to take out one significant amount from the other and took a large payment. I took it all from the 25% tax free part of the pension. So I guess when I come to drawdown from that one I will have a much lower amount of tax free to have.
I think they recalc your entitlement at each event but I'm not sure about that. (I think that's how the lifetime allowance was calculated too but that is now history isn't it?)
btw I'd not seen anything on Labour taking it away, do you have a link?
Last edited by: smokie on Fri 28 Jun 24 at 23:53
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There seems to have been some confusion about which tax and allowance was involved after Starmer was asked a question on the radio. His vague answer referred to something that is due to expire, possibly he was thinking of some stamp duty concession or another.
As Zip's post explains they've now made clear that the pension withdrawals regime is not changing.
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There is so implausible a gap between aspiration and money that something will need to give - either a failure to deliver or tax increases.
One would hope they don't succumb to "man maths" by convincing themselves (for instance) that borrowing to invest isn't really borrowing - or similar delusions.
So Starmer choses his words very carefully - he does not want to admit to misleading the British public when the chickens come home to roost over the next few years.
BTW - this is clearly a criticism of Labour - but were the other parties likely to form the next government I would expect behaviours to be no different.
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>> One would hope they don't succumb to "man maths" by convincing themselves (for instance) that
>> borrowing to invest isn't really borrowing - or similar delusions.
What do you say to the argument the borrowing to invest in, say, social housing produces a return (rent) that's not there if the money borrowed is paying the defence budget?
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>> What do you say to the argument the borrowing to invest in, say, social housing
>> produces a return (rent) that's not there if the money borrowed is paying the defence
>> budget?
>>
I say that having a nice rental income won’t seem so attractive if it come at the expense of being attacked by a foreign power. Defence of the nation is the primary onligation and duty of any government and always has been.
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>> I say that having a nice rental income won’t seem so attractive if it come
>> at the expense of being attacked by a foreign power. Defence of the nation is
>> the primary onligation and duty of any government and always has been.
I used defence as an example of day to day spending; I didn't say money should be moved from defence to social housing.
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I rather think that your example betrays your priorities. We should not be considering yet more borrowing as the way forward unless there is an an emergency that threatens the security of the nation. A lack of social housing doesn’t: Spending on defence might just in the foreseeable future.
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>> I rather think that your example betrays your priorities. We should not be considering yet
>> more borrowing as the way forward unless there is an an emergency that threatens the
>> security of the nation. A lack of social housing doesn’t: Spending on defence might just
>> in the foreseeable future.
You're wrong about my prorities; I could equally have flagged benefits or elder care as examples of day to day spending.
A lack of social/affordable housing is a massive emergency and one that will feed the rise of the far right. Is that different in Norfolk?
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I suppose it depends on how you define security, for some it's a traditional military of ships, aircraft and tanks. For others it's security of food, energy etc. For some it's entirely domestic, so brompt mentions emergency of hoising or perhaps health.
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Housing. Is indeed a national problem but the solution is not to inflate national debt even further. Borrowing yet more will unnerve the markets, probably lower the UK’s credit ratings and would be enormously expensive at today’s interest rates. If we want to spend more on housing it needs to come from higher taxation or cutting back spending in other departments. NHS, Education, Social Services??? That is the reality of the situation. The Labour Part knows that. No easy answers.
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We should not be considering yet
>> more borrowing as the way forward unless there is an an emergency that threatens the
>> security of the nation. A lack of social housing doesn’t: Spending on defence might just
>> in the foreseeable future.
>>
Not a common view though, borrowing to spend on defence. Not some mentioned much on the campaign even with what is happening in Ukraine, different in European countries closer to Ukraine in their respective elections.
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>> What do you say to the argument the borrowing to invest in, say, social housing
>> produces a return (rent) that's not there if the money borrowed is paying the defence
>> budget?
>>
Taken in isolation the proposition that more social housing investment is justified by future rental income is superficially persuasive. However the (unspoken and undocumented) assumption is that future cash flows will generate surpluses to repay the loans.
Over many decades there is little/no evidence of investments producing real surpluses - in only 3 of the last 25 years has public sector borrowing to GDP % fallen. Although investment can deliver social benefits, evidently surpluses from investment have been spent on day to day activity.
In the absence of real financial surpluses national debt continues to increase. I expect the smoke and mirrors, self delusion and man maths will ramp up over the next two years as Labour contend with the gap between aspirations, funding and tax commitments.
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The problem is we (with Labour, or the Tories were they to continue) will be starting from coffin corner. The economic situation is so dire that that alone should be enough to reject Sunak and the not-Conservatives-any-more.
There's almost nothing you can do under current fiscal rules that doesn't make things worse other than wait and hope for the best.
Borrowing sounds a good idea to me, within reason, which means in a way that doesn't make UK's credit rating worse. What we think matters less than what the market thinks.
Investment comes either from that or from the private sector. Debt is famously cheaper than equity, and government debt is cheaper than private debt + equity. It was fiscal rules that caused us to waste (and still be wasting) a ton of money on PFI. The Conservatives invented it and Labour sadly took it up if anything even more enthusiastically. It brought a flood of capital, practically limitless for a country the size of the UK, but at a ridiculous cost - of necessity outsourced services are regulated, not very well in the case of water it seems, and the scale and risk means that contracts or prices are often in effect 'cost plus'. Bidders now it seems can't really be trusted - Thames Water might be viable if financed with capital but the owners have withdrawn as much cash as possible, lumbered the business with debt, and the risk looks like coming back to us when it fails..
Tax also sounds like a good idea.
Why? Defence of the Realm (and the people) yes. But who except a mutated Conservative party doesn't think that eradicating homlessness (again), taking children out of poverty and fixing social care (which would go a long way to fixing the NHS in itself) isn't right up there as a matter of urgency?
In practice I think Labour hopes to be able to insinuate a few extra taxes, mainly on those who can afford it, and for a fair wind and a sustained if low rate of growth. I think Starmer has fenced himself in a bit too much.
Sunak is now absolutely hysterical. He's even claimed today that life is better now than it was in 2010. Not if you are on an NHS waiting list for elective surgery it isn't. The Mail eports his claim that Starmer will wreck the country in 100 days. Clearly not possible, they've tried that already.
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And Cleverly was out today accusing Labour of wanting to bend the political system, for example by lowering the voting age and allowing some foreign national to vote, so that it's permanently in power.
Presumbly he's forgotten that it was his party that changed the way constituencies were made up, enforced voter ID for in person voting and extended te franchise to long term ex-pats, all of which advantaged the Tories.
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The constituency changes were made by the Boundary Commission with the aim being to have them all contain a similar number of electors. How was this a party political move?
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>> The constituency changes were made by the Boundary Commission with the aim being to have
>> them all contain a similar number of electors. How was this a party political move?
The evening up of electors, with that objective overriding previous need to follow local government boundaries, is new post 2015. It was legislated for during, I think, Cameron's tenure.
It is generally thought to favour the tories as previous relatively less populous mid sized former industrial towns acquire a rural hinterland likley to be more Conservative than the town itself.
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>> And Cleverly was out today accusing Labour of wanting to bend the political system, for
>> example by lowering the voting age and allowing some foreign national to vote, so that
>> it's permanently in power.
>>
>> Presumbly he's forgotten that it was his party that changed the way constituencies were made
>> up, enforced voter ID for in person voting and extended te franchise to long term
>> ex-pats, all of which advantaged the Tories.
Tedious tit for tat political point scoring with little merit from either side.
There is a reasonable case to be made for all changes (whether you agree or not):
- lowering the voting age
- allowing UK resident foreign nationals to vote
- democratic "one person one vote" will require boundary changes from time to time,
- UK nationals living overseas should be able to vote
Last edited by: Terry on Mon 1 Jul 24 at 11:25
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"- lowering the voting age"
Based on a snippet I caught from, I think, Glastonbury I'd have thought raising the age more appropriate!! Those being interviewed (presumably not a representative sample) either showed and expressed no interest or wilful disregard politics, along with a complete lack of understanding and knowledge.
To be fair I don't think I was that politically aware, knowledgeable or interested in my late teens. I know education has changed since then.
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Have you heard any of the interviews with Reform supporters???
Jeez
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I wonder what the turnout will be on Thursday? I'm going 55--60% With a Labour majority of 190.
Anyone else take a guess?
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>>Labour majority of 190...
Coffees with mates on Sunday. So many overheard conversations suggesting large support for Reform.
I hope I am wrong.
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>>
>>
>> Coffees with mates on Sunday. So many overheard conversations suggesting large support for Reform.
>>
>> I hope I am wrong.
>>
Traditional working class areas in many parts of the country have borne the brunt of immigrants whose culture is far apart from our own. People whose families had lived there for generations saw their localities change beyond all recognition, sometimes virtually overnight and not unnaturally resented this. Any protests got them accused of being racists, fascists, extreme right wingers etc etc. Feeling ignored and disregarded by the mainstream parties they turned to people like Farage and Reform.
Not something you'd understand if you lived in the leafy suburbs, but true nevertheless. Among the cohorts I left behind in London and Essex support for Reform is strong, and that's across a bunch of people who were mostly Labour voters all their lives.
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I'm making no predictions, remember Kinnock and Millibands slab of stone?
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Coffees with mates on Sunday. So many overheard conversations suggesting large support for Reform.
>>
>> I hope I am wrong.
>>
They'll get votes in the millions. Probably 3 or 4 MPs.
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Reform are nailed on in Clacton and I think 30p Lee will get back. Possibly Tice in Boston.
Vox pop on Times radio in Lee Anderson's area bears out what RO'R said. A lot of I want my country back sentiments. Often that sort of stuff is more prevalent in areas on the edge of those with with large minority ethnic populations than in places where there are settled communities.
Beyond that I suspect their vote will be around 13% but spread out across the country. They'll disrupt some seats so they go Labour rather than Tory.
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A few simplistic thoughts:
Reform are mainly (not entirely) ex-Tory and currently poll 16%. This may fall - when faced with a ballot paper, a realisation voting Reform hands a bigger majority to Labour. Little chance of winning seats bar a small handful - Tice, Farage??? 13% seems a reasonable guess.
LibDems should gain seats. Tory "defectors" will mainly go either Reform or LibDem, fewer choosing Labour. In byelections where LibDems are 2nd to Tories they are the likely default tactical choice. In 2019 they were in 2nd place to Tory in 80 seats.
SNP have been impacted by leadership turmoil and are likely to lose seats to both Labour (mainly) and LibDem. Tories will be doing well top get a single seat north of the border.
I will stick my neck out and estimate seats - before the ballot:
Labour 400-420
Tory 125-145
LibDem 50-60
SNP 30-40
Reform Less than 5
Other parties Not much change
Labour will have a comfortable majority and likely govern for a full term. Pointless speculating on what they might do - the manifesto was an exercise in aspiration without foundation. Just wait and see!
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"Vox pop on Times radio in Lee Anderson's area bears out what RO'R said. A lot of I want my country back sentiments."
Comedian Marcus Brigstocke did a great bit on vox pop last time I saw him. It was around how the old people they find to interview, who are shuffling round coffee shops and town centres during the daytime, are likely anything but vox pop.
Last edited by: smokie on Wed 3 Jul 24 at 13:59
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It isn't just in the UK that right wing partiers are starting to attract support, but throughout the EU too. And it's all for the same reason, mass immigration foisted on the population by governments who simply ignore the concerns of their people.
I never thought I'd see the day when relatives in Ireland (Who thought we were mad to vote for Brexit) are now starting to say that joining the EU was the worst thing they ever did.
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Is immigration foisted by governments or driven by the needs/wants of capitalist employers :-P
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A bit of both. Employers want cheap labour from abroad (Wages have risen dramatically in the hospitality trade since Brexit) and by governments anxious to prove how right-on they are in kidding themselves that letting towns and cities have a massive cultural shift in a short time is to everyone's benefit. And if the mainstream parties are too nervous to tackle the issue people will increasingly turn to parties like Reform.
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I seriously doubt the government we've had since 2010 has any 'right on' people. Even Blair and co got exercised over migration.
They've no idea how to control it, never mind stop it, without crippling key services and leaving old folks without care.
Why do we count students in the migration figures? They're customers for our 'invisible exports'.
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>>Immigration...
It's all billhooks!
We sowed the seed of immigration when we invaded most of the world in the 17 and 1800's.
If we wanted to stop people smuggling / illegal immigration then officially accept them. Take the £30,000 that the people smugglers would have taken off them and put them on a reliable ferry across the channel.
Put them in decent, but fenced off camps (Turkey does it and if they can surely we can).
See what work they are capable of doing and employ them appropriately. Otherwise they get no benefits.
Provide education for those that need it - again - Turkey uses refugee teachers to teach refugees.
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Well done zippy, you've just given a textbook lesson in how to get Reform into power.
Believe me, few people in the areas of the country most affected by mass immigration (And not just illegal immigration) give a damn about what happened in the eighteenth and nineteenth century. And that's the problem, very few politicians of any hew understand peoples concerns because they cover their ears and scream "Racist" whenever the subject comes up.
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Do you class the government as a capitalist employer? After all a sizeable part of the NHS workforce is said to be immigrant (isn't it?).
Don't overlook the hostile home environment as a cause for migration, whether it be from bad governments or opposition, war, famine, overpopulation of other countries (compared to their ability to sustain that population rather than too many people per hectare) and of course climate change, which will make many countries uninhabitable within a generation or two IMO.
Seems to me that restricting families worldwide to 2 children would be a good start - maybe not by law but by education. Problem is, too many 1st world people just would do what they want rather than what's good for the world and 2rd world won't be given the opportunity to understand and the wherewithal to prevent. Religion plays a part in this too of course.
I wonder if Zippy will be happy with an immigration camp just up the road? I think those living near them are less convinced they are a Good Thing!
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>> Do you class the government as a capitalist employer? After all a sizeable part of
>> the NHS workforce is said to be immigrant (isn't it?).
In a sense yes.
We need workers in health and care. The indigenous population don't have the skills and/or can earn more with less demanding hours in a supermarket.
Whats you're answer.
You can, to a degree, educate people to have only two children but if the stats say only one of them will live to be 2 they'll have more. Trying to limit it to 2 via the benefit system has been massively succesful in the UK. NOT
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Wed 3 Jul 24 at 17:11
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They are planning one a few miles away:
maps.app.goo.gl/z8yX3Khzb3kCK5PM6
It was an army camp, then a prison, then a training centre of a foreign govt. It's on the edge of a posh area called Cooden / Little Common.
Local opposition was on the news and a people were complaining and then one group said something like- "what about the children - we won't be able to let our children out of the house" - as if all immigrants are murders and rapists!
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>> I wonder if Zippy will be happy with an immigration camp just up the road?
>> I think those living near them are less convinced they are a Good Thing!
Isle of man would be a good choice. Choppy seas, not good for small boats.
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Who, in the government we expect to lose office tomorrow, has done the cover their ears and scream racist thing?
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>> Believe me, few people in the areas of the country most affected by mass immigration
>> (And not just illegal immigration) give a damn about what happened in the eighteenth and
>> nineteenth century. And that's the problem, very few politicians of any hew understand peoples concerns
>> because they cover their ears and scream "Racist" whenever the subject comes up.
>>
I used to visit Boston Lincs an awful lot in the '90s and '00.
A large factory there would desperately try to recruit locals with little luck, despite high unemployment amongst the locals. They were offering decent wages to get staff - and flexability to cater for parents (late starts and early finishes so they could drop kids off at school then come to work and leave to pick up the kids). Locals were not interested.
Similar with the farms there - locals just didn't want seasonal work and they had to go abroad to get staff.
So Poles, Czechs and Slovaks came and took the jobs.
Another example, in Royal Tunbridge Wells - a factory was offering really good pay put could not recruit locally and there is unemployment there. So they had a flight from Eastern Europe land every Monday morning and depart every Friday evening with staff willing to work.
Then they moan that they don't want foreigners here. Well in my book, the foreigners seem to be economically active and paying taxes when many locals are just a drain on society. Perhaps we are exporting the wrong people?
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>> Comedian Marcus Brigstocke did a great bit on vox pop last time I saw him.
>> It was around how the old people they find to interview, who are shuffling round
>> coffee shops and town centres during the daytime, are likely anything but vox pop.
>>
I had to google the mean of ‘vox pop’ as I’d never heard the expression. I thought it must be a new form of music, like KPop ( Korean) or something of that ilk.
I’m not yet old enough to shuffle round coffee shops and town centres....excluding airports where I have a large cappuccino to wake me up at 5AM pre flying on the BeniBus, I probably haven’t been in a ‘coffee shop’ for almost 10 years.
And that was in the USA when my coffee addicted friends wanted a caffeine fix and I wanted a freshly squeezed OJ or proper cup of tea, neither of which they had, so I settled for a sulk and waited outside.
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Homo sapiens are tribal with a hierarchy of affiliations - those to whom they owe loyalty, support and whose fate is of concern. A priority list may be - close family, close neighbours, religious links, town, country, and at the end of the list - "humanity".
If "humanity" is imposed on an existing stable community, they will be blamed for any negative impacts. Plans to cope with infrastructure needs have been inadequate - "locals" see only a deterioration in housing, health, education etc.
Reform appear attractive as they will actively resist. That it runs counter to woke or PC niceties does not concern them - however much you or I may think they are wrong.
Any incoming government should have a way to manage asylum fairly, control and allow other immigration only where required. No party bar Reform has a remotely coherent crrdible plan.
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"No party bar Reform has a remotely coherent crrdible plan."
Farage's idea to get rid of undesirable immigrants, apparently, is to put them in boats and ship them back to France. I don't suppose he's consulted the French about that, but he probably shouldn't bother - I know what their reaction would be, and I think they are capable being b*****-minded to the point of preventing the boats from landing their passengers.
That doesn't sound like part of a coherent, credible plan to me.
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“In Farage I see someone who from a public platform has never uttered one word of kindness towards the fellow citizens he is not trying to recruit, never extended a conciliating hand to anyone who differs, never built a bridge or talked about compromise, and never indicated sympathy with (or even interest in) a contrary opinion, or any willingness to reconsider his own. The grin is broad but the vibe is negative: whom or what do we hate? Come hate with me.”
Matthew Parris
Reform's plan is no more credible than a p**shead in a pub shouting "Stop the boats!"
UK birth rate is now ~1.5 per woman, the 65+ age group will increase by 20-25% over the next 25 years.
No immigration means either we need moon rocket levels of productivity growth or a rapid rise of retirement age to 70+.
Didn't see that in their manifesto.
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>> No party bar Reform has a remotely coherent crrdible plan.
Reform's plan per their 'contract' is not massively different to the Tories; only essential immigration. They say mainly for healthcare but we also need other skills and people to pick/pack food.
Sending boats, or people from them, back to France - unless we negotiate a deal with the French - is totally impractical. Leaving the ECHR is a gimick unless we want to remove convention rights from everybody.
If reducing immigration was as easy as it sounds we'd have got it sorted years ago; net movement in tens of thousands and all that.
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Reform's pledges are massively underfunded. Farage said that doesn't matter because they can't win, and Reform's job is to set out radical ideas.
In other words, nonsense.
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>> Reform's pledges are massively underfunded.
>>
So are every other partys.
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>> >> Reform's pledges are massively underfunded.
>> >>
>>
>> So are every other partys.
Reform's don't even pretend to add up.
I was at Oradour sur Glane yesterday. It made me ponder on the widespread enthusiasm for demagogues and where it will end.
Happy as I am to see the Conservatives smashed, I'm sad that it took a big vote for a dangerous con man to achieve it.
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I think Reform saw their role as disruptors and didn't really spend too much time fretting that their policies didn't stack up. Not only that, but like all the parties they weren't ready when the election was called at such short notice, and they have a lot less resource than the large parties to pull coherent and fully costed stuff together quickly - even a list of appropriate candidates!!
I suppose the size of the majority is concerning as that's really what gave rise to the excesses of the last xx Tory years, which there is nothing to say it won't be repeated over the coming Parliament(s), especially when the HoL is stuffed full of Labour peers to ensure what they want to happen happens. This will start to happen imminently. I believe a wholesale reform of the HoL is also on the cards under a Labour government.
I like the concept of an appointed Lords, especially at the expense of hereditary, in some form as it does provide some checks and balances in government, but if we voted for its membership it would end up a reflection of the election and therefore become a bit pointless. I can't see any real alternative to political appointments. Maybe that's the place where proportional representation could be tried out, based on the election result (though I realise that's not practical either) - that would make it more representative of the country as a whole.
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>> I suppose the size of the majority is concerning as that's really what gave rise
>> to the excesses of the last xx Tory years, which there is nothing to say
>> it won't be repeated over the coming Parliament(s)
I think the 'super majority' thing is blown out of proportion by the outgoing government.
Once you've got enough to see off a few rebels and survive a handful of byelections, probably a few north of 40, it doesn't make much difference in terms of Commons lobby fodder.
What might be more worrying is the lack of people, or at least quality people, to be on select committees.
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A big majority on this case is less likely to result in radical socialist policies which I assume is what the reactionaries are afraid of.
Labour's MPs are mostly on board and under control. The problems arise when the majority is small and rebels can hold the government hostage. With 170 majority Starmer can ignore the militants.
Sunak just didn't want to appear such a big loser to Reform. Anybody paying attention from Sunak in the last couple of weeks could see he was just trying to get the vote out, the scare stories were mainly aimed at the old.
We should all be concerned about Reform.
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>> Reform's pledges are massively underfunded. Farage said that doesn't matter because they can't win, and
>> Reform's job is to set out radical ideas.
>>
>> In other words, nonsense.
>>
Sounds similar to many other parties.
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>> The Sun has come out for Starmer - a bit late
>>
>> www.thesun.co.uk/news/28935096/its-time-for-a-change/
>>
>>
The Sun likes to kid everybody that it influences it's reader's opinions. It does not, it decides who is most likely to win and backs them. It is terrified of being out of step with it's purchasers.
Last edited by: Robin O'Reliant on Thu 4 Jul 24 at 19:38
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Voted at 11.00
3 clerks at the desks.
Easy parking
Marie Celeste otherwise
I asked how many voters so far - 309 in 4 hours
I have seen more activity with local council elections
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When I was working in an office I usually voted after work as the Polling Place didn't open until 07:00 and that was tight with trains unless I went in later than usual.
Neither of my adult children have voted yet for similar reasons.
Only ones early round here are the crinklies without a postal vote and a few yummy mummies taking their toddlers to playgroup :-).
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I think it might well be quite a low turnout, a bit over 50%.
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>> Voted at 11.00
Mine was put in the post last week.
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>>Mine was put in the post last week.
Same 'ere.
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I guess, if there is a low turnout, it might be not least to do with some (many?) having no idea who to vote for. The choices seem to range from the incompetent to the appalling, punctuated by the simply preposterous. We’ve been and scrawled our Xs next to the lot that seem the least worst/harmful to us, but I can’t say I’m very enthusiastic about any of them. I’ve truly never felt so politically disenfranchised in my life.
Ah well, at least we’re not in America…
Last edited by: Runfer D'Hills on Thu 4 Jul 24 at 16:06
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>>Ah well, at least we're not in America...
Between a rock and a hard place. The previous was Clinton V Trump.
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Labour 410
Con 131
Ld 61
Reform 13
Labour majority 170
Last edited by: sooty123 on Thu 4 Jul 24 at 22:04
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Thats the BBC poll. SNP 10!!!!! Yes Ten!
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It's a combined poll, sky/itv/bbc.
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>> Thats the BBC poll. SNP 10!!!!! Yes Ten!
Wouldn't be surprised - SNP woes and the terrible SNP-Green power sharing agreement has seen them right off their perch.
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A little election light heartedness, I am enjoying the competition between Blythe and Sunderland South in the race to declare first :-)
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Yip.
Think SNP rue the day they ever got into bed with the Greens.
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Shapps, Truss & Ress-Mogg - all gone!
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>> Shapps, Truss & Ress-Mogg - all gone!
And Mordaunt which might be worrying from the PoV of those looking for a credible leader who is not hitched to the ERG faction.
Teachers are dancing round their whiteboards over Keegan's defenestration.
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I wasn't particularly aware of Keegan ( - I feel in general happy that I'm aware of less and less these days!) - but is that because of "the failure of the Government to agree the Union’s demand for a fully funded restorative pay award for all teachers employed in state funded schools in England, and to resolve the issue of excessive workload and long working hours*"?
I suspect there will be other unseemly gloating over different aspects of the result from those who backed the winners, just like there was over Brexit. It's the way of the world these days, kind of 1970s football supporter mentality.
I'd agree with your point somewhere above re select committees.
*from www.nasuwt.org.uk/article-listing/education-secretary-hell-bent-on-damaging-teaching.html
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>> I wasn't particularly aware of Keegan ( - I feel in general happy that I'm
>> aware of less and less these days!) - but is that because of "the failure
>> of the Government to agree the Union’s demand for a fully funded restorative pay award
>> for all teachers employed in state funded schools in England, and to resolve the issue
>> of excessive workload and long working hours*"?
As with Junior Doctors, I suspect a government that's willing to meet the unions and engage in proper negotiations will get things sorted without surrendering to everything that's wanted.
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Agreed - I'm pretty sure I recently heard one BMA spokesperson say they were now willing to have their pay rise spread over a number of years and not in one lump sum.
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Has there ever been an even vaguely popular education secretary amongst teachers. They seem to hate every single one.
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>> Has there ever been an even vaguely popular education secretary amongst teachers. They seem to
>> hate every single one.
In my school they hated the head and the pupils
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>> Has there ever been an even vaguely popular education secretary amongst teachers. They seem to
>> hate every single one.
Probably not though 'Shirl the Pearl' Williams and Estelle Morris might have come close.
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I'm not sure why though. Perhaps it comes with the job. Easy for the politicians though, can't win don't try.
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Wasn't it Reg Prentice, before he crossed the floor, who got rid of the direct grant grammar schools (including Starmer's school which then went independent, like mine)? Bet the comprehensive teachers loved him for that.
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>> Wasn't it Reg Prentice, before he crossed the floor, who got rid of the direct
>> grant grammar schools (including Starmer's school which then went independent, like mine)? Bet the comprehensive
>> teachers loved him for that.
Probably yes. He was Education Minister until 1975 which was about the time the Regs abolishing the Direct Grant Schools were passed.
His defection to the Conservatives was rewarded with a safe seat, Daventry, which he held until 1987.
He was replaced by Tim Boswell, a decent One Nation Tory, who was our MP from 1997 to 2010. I don't remember ever meeting him around and about home but he was at a seminar on Westminster I attended c2008. One of the other MPs was the late David Amess who was quite interesting as I'd long regarded him as a right wing nut job but was much more measured in person than the persona he projected in the media and on the floor of the House.
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>> Wasn't it Reg Prentice, before he crossed the floor, who got rid of the direct
>> grant grammar schools (including Starmer's school which then went independent, like mine)? Bet the comprehensive
>> teachers loved him for that.
>>
Prentice was my constituency MP at the time. I worked in a strong union factory and the attitude toward Prentice, even before he defected, was one of strong dislike. He was not a popular figure and was lucky that he held a seat Labour could only have lost by selecting Ian Brady as a candidate.
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>> Shapps, Truss & Ress-Mogg - all gone!
>>
They are calling it Moggxit. Chortle.
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Glad to see the Tories got what they deserved. Not convinced electing Labour will make much difference; and we now have a leader with all the charm of a wet fish. Glad Reform got only four seats. Disappointed in the fairly poor turn-out.
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At work and on phone so will keep this short…
Well I am truly glad that my fears were unfounded.
The vote for Reform was high. I bet they will campaign for proportional representation.
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>> The vote for Reform was high. I bet they will campaign for proportional representation.
>>
Reform will be hoping that when the dust settles they will be the focal point for the rebirth of the Tory party, and the drivers of right of centre politics in this country. I hope they are wrong.
I don't think they want PR - more extreme parties - left or right - are tend towards autocracy. PR guarantees either instability or the need to compromise. They are playing the long game.
The result is a clear vote for "not Tory", not overwhelming endorsement of Labour whose overall vote share is unremarkable. If the blues" had functioned as one party, rather than splitting the vote, Labour would likely still have overall majority - but probably in the 20-40 seat range.
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Yes, I feel the Tories by and large lost it rather than Labour winning, if you get my drift.
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>> Yes, I feel the Tories by and large lost it rather than Labour winning, if
>> you get my drift.
5 things lost it.
Boris J covid parties
Liz Trust
Rishi announcing date with his own personal raincloud over him
Early D Day Departure
Betting scandals nailed the coffin lid.
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I'm not sure any of those listed after Truss shifted the dial much; they were IDS for months before the Drowning St speech.
Whether they'd have fared better is Sunak had been less arrogant and more collegiate about setting the date and gone later is a different question.
I think he was at the point where he just said Fark It i've had enough.
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Fri 5 Jul 24 at 13:31
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So where is the next Reform party national conference going to be.
Clacton? Gt Yarmouth? Skeggy?
All of them delightful up market venues. Wonder if Farang is going to move to Clacton?
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>> I'm not sure any of those listed after Truss shifted the dial much; they were
>> IDS for months before the Drowning St speech.
last two mentioned many times by defecting voters. Scuppered any chance of a rally in support and derailed the campaign.
Last edited by: Zero on Fri 5 Jul 24 at 13:40
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>> I'm not sure any of those listed after Truss shifted the dial much; they were
>> IDS for months before the Drowning St speech.
>>
>>
Reading pollsters it was three things, covid parties, his defence of paterson & truss. After those the polls didn't move much.
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x.com/ByDonkeys/status/1823481596185616717
I'm not sure where else to put this, i thought truss lied. It was very funny.
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Harris appears to be ahead now in swing states. Hope it lasts.
Trump's chat with Musk was an endless ramble. From the bits I listened to, there was no real common ground, they seemed to be at cross purposes most of the time. Trump sounded almost fluent at times, but the content mostly made no sense. Musk himself was very tentative and hard to follow.
I don't trust Musk at all. He's gone very extreme - apparently - and today there is an article in the i about using extreme right wing posts to sell advertising on Twitter. The Telegraph and Mail was were advertisers mentioned!
Musk said inter alia that nuclear bombs were not quite as bad as people feared, because Hiroshima and Nagasaki are now back on their feet. 80 years later!
I would waste 2 hours on it, you won't make it anyway. For a synopsis, the Quiet Riot podcast was mocking but funny,
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Add Farage splitting the fascist vote.
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I think lee Anderson has now won that seat for three different parties. I wonder if any other MP has ever done that?
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Did he win it for Labour?
I thought he was elected for the Tories as a red waller but had previous membership of Labour.
John Horam sat for three parties.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Horam
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Fri 5 Jul 24 at 14:43
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Might have been, I thought he'd stood as a Labour MP and won.
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...he was a Labour Councillor, and Gloria De Piero's office manager when she was the (Labour) MP, but never a Labour MP.
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Thinking about MPs who have moved allegiance there's also David Owen.
When he started to drift towards the Tories some wag in the Labour Party said he'd farked over two parties already and why shouldn't the Conservatives get the same privilege.
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Some of the canvassers for Labour have been harassed and attacked and a Labour candidate in Birmingham has rec'd armed police protection. There are also incidents of campaigners for smaller parties being assaulted.
This is unacceptable in a modern democracy and must be rooted out.
See Jess Phillips and Shabana Mahmood, both won.
Why the mainstream media is not reporting this is beyond me.
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>> See Jess Phillips and Shabana Mahmood, both won.
Ahh, thanks for that.
There was something on Mumsnet about Jess Phillips and her struggles but it was drowned out before I could understand it because she's not one of the Gender Critical illuminati....
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Fri 5 Jul 24 at 17:33
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I saw Jess Phillips in the bar at the Pleasance Courtyard last time we went to the Fringe. She seemed nice enough, and was posing for selfies with people. She didn't ask me to pose with her though :-) (I actually feel that's unfair to bother people for them when they're clearly out on a social.)
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news.sky.com/story/labours-jess-phillips-reflects-on-abuse-in-absolutely-horrible-election-campaign-13173842
Sky covered the abuse from the campaign.
>> Why the mainstream media is not reporting this is beyond me.
>>
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www.moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/research/change-pending/
Some post election analysis.
Conclusion is worth a read
Navigating this fragmented electorate and the rise of populism will require political leaders to engage more authentically with a broader range of voter concerns and rebuild trust in the political process itself. That means understanding rather than dismissing the concerns of those who voted for populist parties and addressing the root causes of their discontent.
While the solution does not lie in aping populists, mainstream politicians could do more to learn from the appeal of populist leaders. In focus group conversations even many of those who would never vote for Nigel Farage cited his authenticity and straight talking as something that marked him out in the political class. Similarly, those independent candidates who stood on pro-Gaza platforms also attracted support for some because they were seen as champions for communities that had felt neglected and taken for granted for too long.
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I had a look at "X" for the first time in depth last weekend - never again. It was full of fascist rhetoric - seriously espousing why Hitler was right, how the Jewish people control the world and make us poor etc. Seriously abnormal stuff and I am not convinced some of it would be legal in this country and would almost certainly be illegal in countries like Germany.
(I have obviously seen "tweets" before but I have only ever clicked on the relevant tweet, not delved further.)
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The problem is, now you've read them that's where the internet thinks your sympathies lie, so you'll get to see more and more of it.
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There is a fascinating video on YouTube "Proving beyond all doubt" that Paul McCartney died in 1966 and was replaced by Billy Shears. The comments section is full of fellow travellers offering up the most tenuous bits of "Evidence" showing it must be true.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCQ6kcTTBjE
I thought it was a joke at first.
Last edited by: Robin O'Reliant on Wed 14 Aug 24 at 20:06
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>> The problem is, now you've read them that's where the internet thinks your sympathies lie,
>> so you'll get to see more and more of it.
>>
I'm not venturing back there.
I did see some other stuff from this geezer which is more my speed: www.youtube.com/@MrKnowwun
:-D
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Happy 4th July - CGNorwich
