www.economist.com/interactive/uk-general-election/build-a-voter
Bung in whatever demographic you want.
People with my profile are 16% Labour, 23% Lib Dem, 43%.
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Based on my profile: 10% Lib. 18% Ref. 22% Lab. 47% Con.
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Lab 33%, Con 32%, Ref 17%
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Me - 10% Green, 21% LibDem, 23% Labour, 36% Tory.
Playing around with the model the key determinant of voting intentions seems to be age. Older folk of 55+ tend to be Tory, below 45 are predominantly Labour.
it seems the budget just now has focussed on the group most likely to be influenced to vote Tory rather than Labour - in work, moderate to good incomes, 35-55 years old, own home (possibly mortgaged), most likely to have children:
- 2% cut in NI and allowances unchanged benefits those working and earning £25-60k
- child allowance/nursery changes benefits parents (typically age 30-50)
- no increase in fuel duty helps reduce inflation
The NI cut and child benefit changes are of no benefit to pensioners which is main Tory demographic and will likely make little difference to their voting intentions.
Those with low earnings, no children and renting are unlikely to be Tory voters even with a budget bribe.
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2024 - Lib 8%, Lab 22%, SNP 25%, Tory 38%
2019 - Lib 8%, Lab 13%, SNP 27%, Tory 49%
Seems about right - since Ruth Davidson was elevated to the Lords, the Tories have been struggling - their current leader looks like a soccer hooligan but with less charisma (he is a football referee in his spare time!)
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"A white man aged 75+ from the East of England, who owns a home in a suburban area, is retired and has a postgraduate degree has a:
50% chance of voting Conservative
20% Lib Dem
12% Labour"
No way is there even a 50% chance I would vote Tory and not even a 20% chance I would vote Labour. Not sure about Lib Dems.
Yes, I know it's all about averages, statistics, projections - whatever.
Last edited by: James Loveless on Wed 6 Mar 24 at 23:13
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Mid sixties, white British, 64+ own home owned outright, in part time work (implicitly semi retired?) is - main parties:
Tory 46%
Lab 23%
LD 13%
Personally:
Labour - Government of choice
Tory - Why would I?
LD/others - possible tactical alternatives to Labour so as to exclude a Tory.
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Suburban, South East, home owner (small mortgage < cost of new soft-roader), late 50s (not that I want to admit it).
Tory 39%, Labour 32%, LD 16%.
Political bias is social justice. Local Tory MP is a joke. Would vote labour or LD tactically.
Disappointed in all the main parties to be honest.
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Suburban Wales, Home owner, mid 60s
Voted Plaid Cymru last election, 2000 like me threw their vote away and the Tories got in. Labour voter next time (first time ever)
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www.thisvotecounts.co.uk/
Allows predictions down to constituency level.
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>> Allows predictions down to constituency level.
Interesting.
Post boundary changes we're in South Northamptonshire - incumbent and prospective Tory candidate Andrea Leadsom. I'd assumed it was nailed on safe but according to that it's 36% Tory 32% Labour...
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We've been pretty solid Cons under Redwood for years (Wokingham). This gives Cons and LibDem 30% each and Lab 25% so will likely be a close run three horse race!! We've had boundary changes which def impact, plus a slew of new housing which has brought a lot of new blood in and would probably tend to work against the Tories.
The council went LibDem from long-time Cons last time around. Imminent is a full council vote whereas last time it was only partial. I don't think a Lab win is likely here in local or national elections but I could be wrong!
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North Cornwall
Conservative
31%
Lib Dem
29%
Labour
22%
Reform
15%
Green
4%
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Bromley has always been blue as far as I can remember - going by this it's Labour 42% and the Tories 32%.
Very interesting.
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We're effected by the boundary change. We have been in Preseli Pembrokeshire with the conservative Stephen Crabb as MP since 2005. Crabb served as Welsh Secretary and was minister for Work and Pensions till a sexting scandal in 2016 scuppered his career and ended his future Prime Ministerial hopes.
Plaid Cymru are tipped to win the new seat quite comfortably, with Labour second and the Cons nowhere.
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We had Theresa May helping Dame Maria Miller knock on doors on Saturday. They were trying to rally support for the Tory offering as our local councillor. Poor sod probably hasn't been reading the letters and comments in the Basingstoke Fishwrap or he'd have told them he was washing his hair on Saturday.
Miller had a 14k majority at the last GE but the predictions are for a Labour win this time. No big surprise really and good riddance.
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Is it me or has the Tory core vote diminished to uneducated elderly white women?
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It may be reasonable to assume the Tory core vote is best represented by those similar to the demographic of the Tory Party itself.
63% male
76% backed Brexit, against 52% of voters as a whole
80% are “ABC1s” (the highest-paid and most-educated demographic groups, compared with 53% of the population)
42% live in the south of England outside of London, roughly twice the proportion of the wider population
Median age - 57 (whereas the average UK age is 40)
Only 6% of members are under 25
(Info quoted in the FT July 2022, based on data from Queen Mary University of London and Sussex University Party Members Project, 2020. No idea about the methodology, and it's four years out of date anyway.)
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Should have added:
95% identify as white British (against 83% in UK as a whole)
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Current polls show Labour 43%, Tory 23%, Reform 12%, LibDem 9%, Green 6%.
These polls at a general election will give Labour an overwhelming majority. Minor parties under FPTP do not win seats - based on current polls LibDem and Greens are a distraction. Reform (like the Brexit party) will struggle to win seats. However there are two critical issues:
- Scotland - how many seats can Labour can win back from a currently failing SNP
- Reform - splits the historic Tory vote - what chance of a reconciliation
Timing of the next election is contingent on how these develop. A following wind on the above supported by some positive news - eg: inflation, interest rates, waiting lists, tax cuts, etc could radically change the polls.
A Tory vote of (say) 35% (Reform reconciliation + SNP poll recovery) may leave a hung Parliament. Timing of an election is critical and Sunak controls the calendar. Things can't get much worse for him and could get materially better.
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>>Things can't get much worse for him and could get materially better.
Agreed. It's a shame that the voting system undermines both voters' wishes and honest campaigning.
There's a big reason Labour struggles to get elected and that we get more Conservative rule than not. The progressive vote is usually split between Labour and Liberal/LD, and the Tories are repeatedly given control by a minority of the vote when a majority actually oppose them and all they stand for. The LibDems do even worse out of this than Labour of course.
There really has to be a reform if voters' preferences are to be reflected in the results. Whether Labour will be bright enough to bring it about is doubtful.
The Tories are getting some of this now with Reform, but I doubt if that will last. It might not even be a factor in the election. Reform is a joke, and many ex-Tory protest voters will surely realise that when the time comes to make their cross.
Tactical voting is not just about getting the Tories out, Labour haters will adopt it too.
For all that, going right back to the predictor linked in the first post -
A white man aged 65-74 from the South East, who owns a home in a rural area, is retired and has an undergraduate degree has a:
41% chance of voting Con
24% Lib
17% Lab
14% Reform
which I find staggering, and not a little worrying. I'm sure the split in the progressive vote is affected by tactical intentions, but the apparent majority appetite for incompetent government in this segment is incomprehensible to me.
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You know there is an election coming when the Tories make changes that impact the weakest in society!
Mel Stride said on TV that PIP was worth thousands a month. That's not true. Up until April the maximum was under £700 a month and from May it's £800 a month and includes an element for mobility for the most disabled.
fullfact.org/news/mel-stride-PIP-claim/
Shame that there are no penalties for out and out untruths.
Some time ago my local Tory MP claimed disabled people should not be paid as much as non disabled people.
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>> The progressive vote is usually split between Labour and Liberal/LD, and the
>> Tories are repeatedly given control by a minority of the vote when a majority actually
>> oppose them and all they stand for. The LibDems do even worse out of this
>> than Labour of course.
I'm not sure this is right. LibDem don't seem to have a distinctive philosophy being perceived as less left than Labour and less right than the Tories. They are the default vote for dissatisfied voters of both parties.
For the record Labour also benefit from FPTP - Labour vote share from the Blair years.
1997 - 42%
2001 - 41%
2005 - 35%
Neither Tory nor Labour are likely to support a change to FPTP when in power. Exception was the Cameron/Clegg deal which inspired the referendum - split 68/32 against!!
>> a white man aged 65-74 from the South East, who owns a home in a rural area, is retired and has an undergraduate degree has a:
>> 41% chance of voting Con
>> 24% Lib
>> 17% Lab
>> 14% Reform
>>
>> which I find staggering, and not a little worrying.
I don't - many will have never encountered problems that some experience - drugs, domestic violence, unemployment, rubbish landlords etc. They believe they are largely self inflicted woes and are concerned to preserve the comfortable life for themselves and their children,
>> but the apparent majority appetite for incompetent government in this segment is incomprehensible to me.
Labour will not be an improvement, just different - 4000+ senior civil servants make it happen. They outnumber the party in power by ~10:1. That anyone aspires to ministerial responsibility given the potential for personal public criticism astounds me.
Labour will form the next government (hung or overall majority).They will spend the first 2/3 years blaming the Tories. If the economic winds favour them, they will win a second term.
After 3/4 terms they will (as the Tories) be bereft of ideas, ridden by internal division, and a
catalogue of failures and deceit (as the Tories are now). They will have no choice but to accept responsibilty for thet which has gone wrong,
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Domestic Violence does cross all sections of society its just that those higher up the social scale tend to hide it for longer for fear of public knowledge impacting on their social standing and reputation amongst their peers.
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>>I don't - many will have never encountered problems that some experience - drugs, domestic violence, unemployment, rubbish landlords etc. They believe they are largely self inflicted woes and are concerned to preserve the comfortable life for themselves and their children,
What an odd thing to say.
I haven't experienced any of those things, and being lucky didn't make me want to pull up the ladder and blame the less fortunate for their own poverty or disability.
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Well my council, has swung from true blue Tory to NOC. The Tory in my ward won comfortably, but he is very active, very visible well liked locally, and seems to be not embroiled in party dogma, keeping very low key on national politics
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Oh, the neighbouring borough has lost ALL its Tory counselors, becoming the first Surrey borough EVER to have no Tories
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We are still NOC but the GREENS have the largest number of councilors.
I am expecting cars to be banned in the borough from the end of next week.
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Most of them were stationary this morning in a queue for water.
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Only office up for election here was the Police, Crime and Fire Commissioner which has gone from Tory to Labour.
Times Radio reports the London MAyor as being much closer than polling suggested.
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>> Only office up for election here was the Police, Crime and Fire Commissioner which has
>> gone from Tory to Labour.
>>
>>
Wales had only elections for Police and Crime Commissioner. Overall turnout was 17%, which shows how much people care about electing someone into a non-job.
I was one of the 83% who didn't bother.
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Also one of the 83%.
I don't understand why police commissioners are political - in a sound democracy the law should be above and independent of politics. Or perhaps I have missed something - does the Labour PC prioritise charging bankers, the Tory benefits cheats, etc.
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>>
>>
>> I don't understand why police commissioners are political - in a sound democracy the law
>> should be above and independent of politics. Or perhaps I have missed something - does
>> the Labour PC prioritise charging bankers, the Tory benefits cheats, etc.
>>
>>
I don't see the need for local councilors to have any political ties at all, they should all have to stand as independents. I want my bins emptied, potholes repaired and streetlights working, etc etc. Illuminating the town hall with rainbow colours and pledging solidarity with the Palestinians is not the business of local government, their job is to provide the services to local people and dividing along political lines often gets in the way of that.
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>>I don't see the need for local councilors to have any political ties at all
Could say the same about any govt office.
Good idea though!
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Any group of elected councillors or MPs will inevitably group together with other like minded colleagues in order to get things done. That is what effectively political parties are. Inevitably individually may have to compromise on some of their beliefs to achieve others.
A bunch of independent councillors with no coordinated understanding of what they want to achieve will achieve nothing.
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31% turnout for PCC here in Herts. Labour candidate beat the Conservative by 8800 to 6400. Green and Lib Dem each had 2000 odd.
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>> Most of them were stationary this morning in a queue for water.
>>
Just back from Brum and yes we have no water.
Apparently the pipe has been fixed and they are "recharging the network" whilst ensuring supplies to the hospital are not interrupted.
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Voting predictor - Dog
