Continuing discussion.
661913
Last edited by: VxFan on Thu 15 Jun 23 at 11:09
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A video showing an example of the state of Russian morale. If you're sensitive to soldier's language, it's not for you.
twitter.com/DevanaUkraine/status/1669046699480735749
Although constructed by Ukrainian military for propoganda, it gives an idea of the health and age of Russian conscripts.
Last edited by: VxFan on Thu 15 Jun 23 at 11:11
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I have read that Russian soldiers have been badly affected by Cholera due to using water from the burst dam event.
Other diseases are expected from the same source.
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I suspect that there may soon be one or two cases of dysentery in Moscow. Last week Ukraine showed off a locally designed and manufactured UAV with a range of 1000km and a payload of 75kg. Moscow is only ~750km from Kiev as the drone flies.
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twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1672348230313553920
Seems it may have come to a head between the PMC and the Russian army.
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Wagner were hit from behind by helicopter and missile strikes last night. Prighozin was there and has accused Shoigu of planning the attack. He has denied that he was plotting a military coup after he vowed to 'restore justice' in Russia.
Security forces in Moscow and Rostov are on high alert and reserves have been called up as part of what they've called Operation Fortress to secure Govt. buildings and facilities. There are pictures of military on the streets of Moscow.
A case of 'Incitement to Armed Insurrection' has been opened against Prighozin and the FSB have ordered his arrest.
Rats in a sack.
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It appears the government were aware of this probability as they've already put troops on the street and check points. An emergency announcement is due soon on Russian tv.
The risky life of being a dictator.
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Riot police and National Guard Rapid Reaction squads now put on alert in Moscow with orders to shoot anyone who shows 'aggression' towards them.
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First reports indicate the musicians have left rostov and are now halfway to Moscow having been attacked by the Russian airforce en route.
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I suspect the mercenaries wont stand a chance.
If they did, you might find support for Russia changing - for fear of letting mercenaries getting control of nuclear weapons.
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A partisan group in Russia has reported that their contact in Wagner has told them that Wagner intends to take over a nuclear weapons facility in Borysoglibsk near Voronezh. Russian military unlikely to be able to put up much resistance because they're all on vacation in Ukraine.
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Unsubstantiated but:
A Wagner column of 400 vehicles and ~4000 troops on the M4 only 300km from Moscow. That's more than the special forces, conscripts and trained cops available near Moscow.
Every flight out of Moscow is fully booked at prices 20x normal fare.
Reports that Putin has legged it to his place at Valdai and the rest of the Kremlin elite are disappearing.
Ukrainian military reporting signs of Russian troops leaving their positions.
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Some early reports that wagner are only 65 miles from moscow.
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They are going to need some of the Moscow military district commanders to come on side. They might, the days of the politburo cliques with military control have long gone, and putin has done much to keep it that way, someone with military clout may try to take charge.
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Looks like it's all over.
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The ease with which an invading force can go bowling up the M1 halfway to Moscow with no interference , is a bit of a shocker
Last edited by: Zero on Sat 24 Jun 23 at 19:38
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Not overly, interior/rosguardia troops have had run down to the point they are combat ineffective. Prizgonin is popular with rank and file, he shapes himself as a man of the people. Plenty of units stood aside. There's also a left field school of thought that this was all planned.
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>>
>> Prizgonin is popular with rank and file, he shapes himself as a man of the
>> people.
>>
If I were he I wouldn't go standing too close to any hotel windows.
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>> If I were he I wouldn't go standing too close to any hotel windows.
Think he is in line for a Novichuck car door handle.
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>> Riot police and National Guard Rapid Reaction squads now put on alert in Moscow with
>> orders to shoot anyone who shows 'aggression' towards them.
Putin should have done some research. Uncannily accurate, this is chapter 16 in Red Storm Rising by Tom Clancy.
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Some chatter that Lukashenko has already left Belarus.
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...it's difficult to believe that a mercenary group with declared numbers of 25,000 can overthrow the regime by itself.
One thing that sort of drifted by on the BBC reporting, however, was an (unverified) video of Prigozhin meeting with the Russian Deputy Defence Minister and the Russian Deputy Chief of Military Intelligence in Rostov this morning. That can be read in oh so many ways, but it might just mean that reassurances of deeper support have been given (bypassing the High Command). It might explain why what might otherwise be seen as a fairly foolhardy move has been made.
I was amused by the Ukrainian comment along the lines of "Prior to 2022 Russia was seen as having the second most powerful army in the World; post-2022 it was seen as having the second most powerful army in Ukraine; today it is seen as having the second most powerful army in Russia!"
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We really don't have a clue whether reports are true.
- has the Wagner group really called off the advance?
- has Putin come to an accommodation with Wagner - or just playing for time?
- is Belarus a real player - or just muddying the waters
- will the army defend Putin or some swap sides/retreat
- what military capability really exists to defend Moscow
- is the advance (apparently) stalled, resumes
- what do Putins inner circle think - will they turn on him
This is all short term stuff - longer term (next week) who knows???
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...he's miffed because he's not going to be the next NATO General Secretary... ;-)
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kyivindependent.com/investigation-eu-inability-to-ramp-up-production-behind-acute-ammunition-shortages-in-ukraine/
For all the warm words, members states seem to be unable/unwilling/reduced to squabbling over increasing ammunition production for ukr. Seems a bit like the EU vaccine efforts.
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If ammunition supplies are so limited within NATO that they are unable to provide Ukraine what they need, I would be hugely concerned about the ability to resist a wider Russian offensive.
The only positive is that Russia may be running equally short of ammunition - perhaps the end of the war is in sight. Troops will be reduced to throwing stones at each other and name calling.
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The only positive is that Russia may be running equally short of ammunition -
There doesn't appear to be evidence of widespread shortages, localised yes but not theatre wide.
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threadreaderapp.com/thread/1689006806067200000.html
Appears the Russians may be increasingly short of manpower.
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www.channel4.com/news/ukraine-claims-break-through-of-most-difficult-russian-defences
Channel 4 claiming a breakthrough by Ukr. If they can get the Main Supply Routes under fire from artillery it will make it very difficult to keep Russian troops supplied through the winter.
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There's a couple of commentators on www.speakev.com (in the off-topic section of course) who seem to be 4-5 days ahead of major media outlets for the situation in Ukraine.
Apparently if they reach Tokmak the Kerch bridge is then in range of Himars and Crimea will become increasingly difficult for Russia to hold.
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It may be in range if they get to Tokmak, but the Ukr are only a third of the way there from their start lines. If they can target the Crimean bridges and the land bridge large parts of occupied Ukr will be difficult to hold on to.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Wed 30 Aug 23 at 21:23
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They have had 3 defensive lines to breach - once through that I suspect Russian morale will crumble rapidly.
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The Ukr are through the first in quite a few areas, and there's some evidence they are have opened a 4 mile breach in the second line of defence. How much the Russians have to defend the third line is unclear, so we may find out quite soon.
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What a shame that one absolute disgrace of a human can cause so much wasteful expenditure and concern, and by countries that really could do with spending on bettering themselves instead of defending themselves.
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If its not him, it'll be the my next one. None of the ruling class think much of Eastern European independence. This is a long term thing.
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European country boundaries, in general, have never been fully defined or maintained throughout history. Its been in a state of constant flux for centuries.
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The Ukraine - Volume 9 - sooty123
