Continuing discussion.
661913
Last edited by: VxFan on Thu 15 Jun 23 at 11:09
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A video showing an example of the state of Russian morale. If you're sensitive to soldier's language, it's not for you.
twitter.com/DevanaUkraine/status/1669046699480735749
Although constructed by Ukrainian military for propoganda, it gives an idea of the health and age of Russian conscripts.
Last edited by: VxFan on Thu 15 Jun 23 at 11:11
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I have read that Russian soldiers have been badly affected by Cholera due to using water from the burst dam event.
Other diseases are expected from the same source.
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I suspect that there may soon be one or two cases of dysentery in Moscow. Last week Ukraine showed off a locally designed and manufactured UAV with a range of 1000km and a payload of 75kg. Moscow is only ~750km from Kiev as the drone flies.
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twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1672348230313553920
Seems it may have come to a head between the PMC and the Russian army.
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Wagner were hit from behind by helicopter and missile strikes last night. Prighozin was there and has accused Shoigu of planning the attack. He has denied that he was plotting a military coup after he vowed to 'restore justice' in Russia.
Security forces in Moscow and Rostov are on high alert and reserves have been called up as part of what they've called Operation Fortress to secure Govt. buildings and facilities. There are pictures of military on the streets of Moscow.
A case of 'Incitement to Armed Insurrection' has been opened against Prighozin and the FSB have ordered his arrest.
Rats in a sack.
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It appears the government were aware of this probability as they've already put troops on the street and check points. An emergency announcement is due soon on Russian tv.
The risky life of being a dictator.
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Riot police and National Guard Rapid Reaction squads now put on alert in Moscow with orders to shoot anyone who shows 'aggression' towards them.
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First reports indicate the musicians have left rostov and are now halfway to Moscow having been attacked by the Russian airforce en route.
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I suspect the mercenaries wont stand a chance.
If they did, you might find support for Russia changing - for fear of letting mercenaries getting control of nuclear weapons.
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A partisan group in Russia has reported that their contact in Wagner has told them that Wagner intends to take over a nuclear weapons facility in Borysoglibsk near Voronezh. Russian military unlikely to be able to put up much resistance because they're all on vacation in Ukraine.
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Unsubstantiated but:
A Wagner column of 400 vehicles and ~4000 troops on the M4 only 300km from Moscow. That's more than the special forces, conscripts and trained cops available near Moscow.
Every flight out of Moscow is fully booked at prices 20x normal fare.
Reports that Putin has legged it to his place at Valdai and the rest of the Kremlin elite are disappearing.
Ukrainian military reporting signs of Russian troops leaving their positions.
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Some early reports that wagner are only 65 miles from moscow.
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They are going to need some of the Moscow military district commanders to come on side. They might, the days of the politburo cliques with military control have long gone, and putin has done much to keep it that way, someone with military clout may try to take charge.
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Looks like it's all over.
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The ease with which an invading force can go bowling up the M1 halfway to Moscow with no interference , is a bit of a shocker
Last edited by: Zero on Sat 24 Jun 23 at 19:38
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Not overly, interior/rosguardia troops have had run down to the point they are combat ineffective. Prizgonin is popular with rank and file, he shapes himself as a man of the people. Plenty of units stood aside. There's also a left field school of thought that this was all planned.
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>>
>> Prizgonin is popular with rank and file, he shapes himself as a man of the
>> people.
>>
If I were he I wouldn't go standing too close to any hotel windows.
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>> If I were he I wouldn't go standing too close to any hotel windows.
Think he is in line for a Novichuck car door handle.
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>> Riot police and National Guard Rapid Reaction squads now put on alert in Moscow with
>> orders to shoot anyone who shows 'aggression' towards them.
Putin should have done some research. Uncannily accurate, this is chapter 16 in Red Storm Rising by Tom Clancy.
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Some chatter that Lukashenko has already left Belarus.
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...it's difficult to believe that a mercenary group with declared numbers of 25,000 can overthrow the regime by itself.
One thing that sort of drifted by on the BBC reporting, however, was an (unverified) video of Prigozhin meeting with the Russian Deputy Defence Minister and the Russian Deputy Chief of Military Intelligence in Rostov this morning. That can be read in oh so many ways, but it might just mean that reassurances of deeper support have been given (bypassing the High Command). It might explain why what might otherwise be seen as a fairly foolhardy move has been made.
I was amused by the Ukrainian comment along the lines of "Prior to 2022 Russia was seen as having the second most powerful army in the World; post-2022 it was seen as having the second most powerful army in Ukraine; today it is seen as having the second most powerful army in Russia!"
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We really don't have a clue whether reports are true.
- has the Wagner group really called off the advance?
- has Putin come to an accommodation with Wagner - or just playing for time?
- is Belarus a real player - or just muddying the waters
- will the army defend Putin or some swap sides/retreat
- what military capability really exists to defend Moscow
- is the advance (apparently) stalled, resumes
- what do Putins inner circle think - will they turn on him
This is all short term stuff - longer term (next week) who knows???
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...he's miffed because he's not going to be the next NATO General Secretary... ;-)
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kyivindependent.com/investigation-eu-inability-to-ramp-up-production-behind-acute-ammunition-shortages-in-ukraine/
For all the warm words, members states seem to be unable/unwilling/reduced to squabbling over increasing ammunition production for ukr. Seems a bit like the EU vaccine efforts.
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If ammunition supplies are so limited within NATO that they are unable to provide Ukraine what they need, I would be hugely concerned about the ability to resist a wider Russian offensive.
The only positive is that Russia may be running equally short of ammunition - perhaps the end of the war is in sight. Troops will be reduced to throwing stones at each other and name calling.
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The only positive is that Russia may be running equally short of ammunition -
There doesn't appear to be evidence of widespread shortages, localised yes but not theatre wide.
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threadreaderapp.com/thread/1689006806067200000.html
Appears the Russians may be increasingly short of manpower.
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www.channel4.com/news/ukraine-claims-break-through-of-most-difficult-russian-defences
Channel 4 claiming a breakthrough by Ukr. If they can get the Main Supply Routes under fire from artillery it will make it very difficult to keep Russian troops supplied through the winter.
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There's a couple of commentators on www.speakev.com (in the off-topic section of course) who seem to be 4-5 days ahead of major media outlets for the situation in Ukraine.
Apparently if they reach Tokmak the Kerch bridge is then in range of Himars and Crimea will become increasingly difficult for Russia to hold.
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It may be in range if they get to Tokmak, but the Ukr are only a third of the way there from their start lines. If they can target the Crimean bridges and the land bridge large parts of occupied Ukr will be difficult to hold on to.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Wed 30 Aug 23 at 21:23
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They have had 3 defensive lines to breach - once through that I suspect Russian morale will crumble rapidly.
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The Ukr are through the first in quite a few areas, and there's some evidence they are have opened a 4 mile breach in the second line of defence. How much the Russians have to defend the third line is unclear, so we may find out quite soon.
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What a shame that one absolute disgrace of a human can cause so much wasteful expenditure and concern, and by countries that really could do with spending on bettering themselves instead of defending themselves.
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If its not him, it'll be the my next one. None of the ruling class think much of Eastern European independence. This is a long term thing.
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European country boundaries, in general, have never been fully defined or maintained throughout history. Its been in a state of constant flux for centuries.
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Not sure that I'd be standing around watching that.
It's war and one might expect other ordinance to come over and it might not be so accurate.
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Your attitude to risk changes if under bombardment often. You may as well move straight into one as much as standing still.
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Didn't want to miss their 10 seconds of fame on Xitter.
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Oops.
The Moscow City Council website has published a list of all buildings and facilities that are to be excluded from power cuts if they are ever necessary.
Along with the usual government buildings, security and military facilities there's a stack of nondescript warehouses, private residences and unoccupied flats and apartments.
I guess the GRU and FSB will be looking for new premises before unexpected visitors drop in.
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That's more than a shame. I really hope that they can stretch their budgets some more.
Probably due to a lack of understanding on my part, and not making any comment about the rights or wrongs of it, I don't really get why Israel/Palestine is taking so much oxygen when we have a serious war involving a major power, which I'd have thought is more likely to directly affect us, more or less on our doorsteps.
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All about timescales isn’t it.
Folk are bored about Ukraine/Russia. Folk have went from condemning the invasion to looking further and further into an Ukraine and their President and don’t see someone squeaky clean.
So their attention goes elsewhere.
Strictly is on, Big Brother is on and no one knows who is replacing Holly and Phil.
I know I am being slightly facetious but also probably very realistic.
If Israel/ Palestine is still going on in a few months it will be pretty much the same.
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Media attention span even for a major story is measured in minutes when a new story emerges. A little like a small child where a favourite toy is forgotten within minutes of a new distraction.
The BBC Ukraine website page illustrates the point - one article 3 hours old, 3 others 3-5 days old, the rest up to several weeks. Not a criticism of the BBC but a reflection of the media generally.
A personal view - it would be incredibly short sighted for US/ NATO to do other than actively support Ukraine - it sends a very clear message that:
(a) might is right, thuggery and abuse of human rights wins,
(b) the US is no longer a world super-power - but heading towards irrelevancy
(c) where else in Europe may next be targeted by Russia
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>> That's more than a shame. I really hope that they can stretch their budgets some
>> more.
I think it shows how depend NATO is on the US. Without them European NATO cannot hope to bridge that gap, I don't think that's likely to change any time soon.
>> Probably due to a lack of understanding on my part, and not making any comment
>> about the rights or wrongs of it, I don't really get why Israel/Palestine is taking
>> so much oxygen when we have a serious war involving a major power, which I'd
>> have thought is more likely to directly affect us, more or less on our doorsteps.
>>
Wars in the ME always get plenty of coverage, mainly due to historically reasons. It's also captured the attention of the media with the protests in the UK.
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>>NATO
I think European NATO needs to reconsider their reliance on the USA which will, IMHO become an increasingly less reliable ally over the next few years and decades.
The same goes for Turkey which seems to align its self more with the Levant than with Europe.
The US are not our friends economically or militarily. We are useful to them and that is all.
It’s sad, but we need to be spending more on arms and armies.
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archive.is/ZzEXQ
Article in the economist about the Ukrainian war.
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www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/biden-s-halting-record-on-ukraine/ar-AA1llTE8
A short history of the dithering in the white house over sending weapons to ukraine.
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>> www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/biden-s-halting-record-on-ukraine/ar-AA1llTE8
>>
>>
>> A short history of the dithering in the white house over sending weapons to ukraine.
Is the White House dithering or is it being screwed over by the House?
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Congress has given him a spending limit, however within that he could have sent equipment faster that ended up going anyway but often too late. Even the messaging has, at times, been unnecessarily weak and indecisive.
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www.abc.net.au/news/2024-01-21/freezing-russians-make-plea-to-vladimir-putin-after-heating-fail/103323062
Looks like large parts of Russia have no heating. Failing from corruption and mobilisation, despite their best efforts its not Ukraine or the rest of Europe that is struggling with the winter but Russia.
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Considering that Russia, Iran and North Korea are mates is it any surprise that Iran is kicking off in the Middle East, firing missiles at Iraq and Pakistan and arming their Houthi mates with drones and North Korea fired a salvo of shells to a disputed island.
They are flexing their mussels and hoping to draw our recourses from where it is needed.
I hope the generals in NATO are wrong, when they suggest a Russia vs. NATO war is inevitable, either way we need to show strength and properly arm the Ukraine.
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>> They are flexing their mussels and hoping to draw our recourses from where it is
>> needed.
Hoping to winkle out what we have?
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>> They are flexing their mussels and hoping to draw our recourses from where it is
>> needed.
Very shellfish of them.
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Better than flexing their molluscs I guess, still all sounds a bit fishy that they are still all floundering around
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its not Ukraine or the rest of Europe that is struggling with
>> the winter but Russia.
>>
You and your wealthy friends might not be struggling this winter, but many are struggling with energy prices.
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I don't think Sooty was meaning to suggest there aren't problems here, and I'm sure we are all aware of impact of fuel poverty in the UK, but the point of the article (and I suspect the reason for Sooty drawing attention to it) is not that they can't afford heating, it's that the infrastructure is so old and decrepit that there is no ability to provide it in the first place. And they have proper, sustained cold in many places in Russia.
The article suggests that "in 2010, official estimates put the repair bill for Russia's housing and municipal infrastructure at $US200 billion" and "based on current spending levels, it would take more than 70 years for Russia to fix even the issues it has now".
Last edited by: smokie on Sun 21 Jan 24 at 09:05
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Yes smokie that was the point, Russia thought they'd get through the winter fine and Europe would be shivering with no heating. Now with russia's mafia state, many repairmen outside of the big cities sent to Ukraine, ancient area heating system falling apart its their citizens shivering. Ironic i think.
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>
>> You and your wealthy friends might not be struggling this winter, but many are struggling
>> with energy prices.
>>
My wealthy friends? Do tell.
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rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/nato-societies-must-be-ready-war
An article about readiness across nato to deter Russia in the next 3-5 years. There seems to be a push across nato to put this out into the public domain and discuss something that is generally off the political radar.
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Big problems with tinternet in Russia currently. It looks like they've gone ahead with the brilliant idea of taking control of DNS for the .ru domain and hadn't thought about DNSSEC.
Olga and Ivan are already having to put up with broken mobile services caused by electronic drone defences.
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There seems to be a growing acceptance among governments, the media and the population at large that we are walking towards a major global conflict. I find this mindset a bit worrying.
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>> There seems to be a growing acceptance among governments, the media and the population at large that we are walking towards a major global conflict. I find this mindset a bit worrying.
>>
Agree with this.
I remember back in the '80s there was some tension going on re NATO vs USSR and early one weekend morning the air-raid sirens went off in the small area of the town where I lived. (Someone at BT connected the wrong line.)
There wasn't panic, but a few bewildered neighbours in PJs were out in the close wondering what to do. Of course, there was nothing to do, we don't have shelters suitable for anything serious here.
The big worry with Russia IMHO is that they may pick a fight that they can't win because their equipment can't compare to NATO's and resort to weapons of mass destruction far too quickly.
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“The big worry with Russia IMHO is that they may pick a fight that they can't win because their equipment can't compare to NATO's and resort to weapons of mass destruction far too quickly.“
If they are prepared to start a war that that they know they can’t win conventionally and are prepared to use nuclear weapons it doesn’t really make sense to delay their use. In fact an initial nuclear strike on their part would make sense.
Last edited by: CGNorwich on Tue 30 Jan 24 at 21:50
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>> “The big worry with Russia IMHO is that they may pick a fight that they
>> can't win because their equipment can't compare to NATO's and resort to weapons of mass
>> destruction far too quickly.“
>>
>> If they are prepared to start a war that that they know they can’t win
>> conventionally and are prepared to use nuclear weapons it doesn’t really make sense to delay
>> their use. In fact an initial nuclear strike on their part would make sense.
>>
I was thinking more along the lines of a major miscalculation, thinking they could do it conventionally which then turned catastrophic.
Last edited by: zippy on Tue 30 Jan 24 at 22:53
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All the soviets military war plans (from the 80's) was based on an all out war against Nato, and using battlefield tactical nukes to shape the war theatre. thinking didnt change and without it, they are now in the situation they are in.
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I cant help but agree with that.
What also is worthy of debate is the talk of some form of conscription.
We talk of defending 'OUR' nation. Is there still that flag waving Rule Britannia nationalism or has this county well and truly gone to the dogs.
With our liberal, less disciplined, entitled, question and rebel against everything attitudes of the population particularly the young, could conscription actually work?
You have to have ultimate sanctions. There are no real sanctions anymore. Institutions are rammed to capacity as its is.
I fear unless you have some form of Marshall Law then for me its a non starter. Again for that it has to be enforced.
Open for discussion.
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>>Ultimate Sanctions
I hope you're not thinking of execution?
I think the media will stir up patriotism so that people will feel the need to "sign up".
There will always be some entitled so and sos that won't.
And if there is enforcement, let's hope that they get it right and not employ someone like this numpty: www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13024433/met-police-apology-Christian-singer-church-songs-volunteer-officer.html#v-6511767648953283158
Of course it needs to be fair - everyone should be included - no sons and daughters of the wealthy or politicians allowed to get out of it.
Someone I work with has a brother who was in the forces. He got to a very, very senior rank before retiring and is now busier than ever with paid work for various groups involved with the services. Far more than was expected a couple of years ago.
Last edited by: zippy on Tue 30 Jan 24 at 21:33
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We talk of defending 'OUR' nation. Is there still that flag waving Rule Britannia nationalism
>> or has this county well and truly gone to the dogs.
>>
>> With our liberal, less disciplined, entitled, question and rebel against everything attitudes of the population
>> particularly the young, could conscription actually work?
>>
I think people have been saying that sort of thing for quite a while.
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Martial Law? The ultimate expression of fascism I suppose.
Apart from general decadence and dissolution, we have a very unpopular government that gives the impression it thinks the country and everything we own should belong to them and their friends.
We aren't quite in the same boat as Russia in WW1 but they ended up shooting their own rulers.
I don't foresee a patriotic rush to sign up.
Somebody made an interesting point the other day. Guy Verhofstadt I think. Together, the European nations spend as much money on "defence" as China. The implication being that if Europe got organised it could be a superpower in its own right. It might need to be if Trump comes back.
Now there's an idea - all the nations in Europe could form a sort of federation to increase their influence and prosperity, with Britain as one of the leading participants.
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Russia expected to walk through Ukraine in a couple of weeks. They misjudged but would they even attempt an invasion that may likely end in failure - probably not.
The main threat is to avoid that which could provoke a nuclear rather than conventional first strike - hence the reluctance of the West to provide Ukraine with obviously offensive capability.
I suspect universal conscription would not be well received. However an improved capability needs to be initiated before the shooting starts. Like inadequate pandemic planning - sourcing PPE, ventilators, beds etc after the disease had arrived was much too late.
A contingency plan is needed.
I agree the Europe cannot now assume the US will come to its rescue - particularly with Trump in the White House. Europe has the resources and capability if effectively coordinated to outgun Russia by a considerable margin.
The second part of a contingency plan should involve (a) ensuring an entirely adequate store of weapons and ammunition, and (b) a much better trained military cadre - improved territorials!
This group would be volunteer. Legislation would provide a financial incentive together with decent pay for an initial induction of (say) 6 months.
Low cost but real incentives may include writing off student loans (a lot never get repaid anyway), additional years NI to improve pension entitlements, priority for social housing etc.
Training (say) 20k pa in this way would ensure that in time there may be 100-250k folk who have deployable skills in weapons handling, military organisation, discipline and tactics.
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>> improved territorials!
I have worked with two guys who were in the volunteer forces, one in the TA and one in the Royal Navy Reserve. Both officers.
Both had quite an air of confidence, which I guess comes from that type of training. I know the TA guy went on active service for a while and the Royal Navy guy has gone on to be a managing director of a financial institution.
Last edited by: zippy on Wed 31 Jan 24 at 07:42
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>>
>>
>> With our liberal, less disciplined, entitled, question and rebel against everything attitudes of the population
>> particularly the young, could conscription actually work?
>>
>>
>>
If the threat were very real and the population were fearing for the future of it's existence it probably would. I believe surveys carried out among Oxbridge students before WW2 showed a majority who would refuse conscription - but when the stuff actually hit the fan almost all of those called up answered the call.
Nothing like the threat of annihilation to concentrate the mind and blow any pacifist leanings into the gutter.
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. I believe surveys carried out among Oxbridge students before WW2
>> showed a majority who would refuse conscription - but when the stuff actually hit the
>> fan almost all of those called up answered the call.
>>
>> Nothing like the threat of annihilation to concentrate the mind and blow any pacifist leanings
>> into the gutter.
>>
I read a similar thing, i think it was in 1934. Not sure if it's true though, but it is a useful as a reminder that complaints about the youth of today are nothing new. However old you are someone older complainted when you were younger.
Although I think conscription is off the cards, I don't think the outgoing CGS meant that. But he did hint at a sense of preparation for conflict that it might not always be 'somewhere else'. I think countries that have conscription or recently got rid get that. Norway, Germany, Sweden are increasing or looking to bring back conscription. Very unlikely we will fit various reasons. Mine the way manning is at the moment, reducing quite quickly in the services a bigger issue is retention of who we have first before we look to expand.
www.forces.net/services/tri-service/uk-armed-forces-numbers-drop-almost-third-23-years-mod-data-reveals
www.thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-military-is-too-small-to-fight-key-allies-warn-f6lv9gtxw
Last edited by: sooty123 on Wed 31 Jan 24 at 18:16
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Clearly going forward we are not going to need hundreds of thousands of grunts and boots on the soil in any war going forward we are not going to be invading anyone, or getting engaged in massed tank battles again. So mass conscription is not going to be needed. We will need skilled forces in navy and airforce tho.
Of course in the event of it going nuclear, its all a waste of time and resource.
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With what's going on in the world at the moment, it would appear that it's a battle of drones.
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“Clearly going forward we are not going to need hundreds of thousands of grunts and
boots on the soil in any war going forward we are not going to be invading anyone, or getting engaged in massed tank battles again. So mass conscription is not going to be needed. “
Said the Ukranian Minister of Defence three years ago.
Last edited by: CGNorwich on Thu 1 Feb 24 at 09:10
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NYT article about growing concern across NATO about Russia in the next 5 years or so. Some think we have less than that.
archive.ph/bsq7y
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I don't do conspiracy theories, but...
Nobody can win an outright all in nuclear war. And yet, I sense that China intends to dominate and certainly Europe, the US and Russia want not to be dominated. Russia may have plans of its own to seize territory.
Given this can't be achieved without disastrous self-harm by conventional war against a nuclear-armed opponent who won't give in, it's almost inevitable that electronic and/or biological and/or chemical warfare will be a threat, and that such weapons are already in development, testing and use notwithstanding treaties that might prohibit that.
For the moment China is probably content to wage war mainly economically. It looks very much as if China will virtually monopolise EV manufacturing.
I have not in general been in favour of a European superstate in which subsidiarity would be abandoned. I'm beginning to think it's essential unless the veto is dealt with And Britain it seems can't go it alone successfully.
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>>Serving…
When just out of college I worked with a lovely lady who’s older brother was a soldier on WW2.
His job was to recover battle damaged tanks. Whilst not directly in action, the things he saw scared him.
I worked with Beefeaters and the US airbases. All service personnel that I were polite and respectful.
I changed jobs to banking and visited a client with some colleagues, including the TA officer who I mention up thread. He was a senior manager. We didn’t get on with the client. He was older, but I worked it out, not older enough to have been in WW2. Anyway he took a real dislike to the bank and any representative and kept on saying we need a good war to sort out the likes of you lot.
The TA reservist was at least 30 years older than me and brooked no crap. He stood up called the man a worm (far less politely though and without swearing or getting angry) and closed the meeting.
Some time after, I was called in to the HR directors office because the client had made a complaint. He was an ex-RAF pilot and said nothing to worry about, just need to get facts down as the client complained to the board. HR director told me that the TA had been in action as a soldier and was wounded. He was of a rank that entitled him to use it in civilian life but chose not to (so major at least). HR director said anyone who has been through a war would never wish it on any one.
Last edited by: zippy on Wed 31 Jan 24 at 22:24
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Plenty of people too young for WW2 saw action in places like Korea, Malaya and Cyprus. Mrs B's maternal Uncle saw people taken out by EOKA in Cyprus while doing his two years.
At least the UK kept out of Vietnam.
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news.sky.com/story/estonias-weekend-warriors-the-sas-civilians-urging-brits-to-get-off-the-sofa-and-learn-how-to-fight-13077055
Unsurprisingly countries near Russia are extremely concerned and are ready. Is the UK prepared for any Russian advance into NATO?
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I suspect, like pandemic planning, the UK is poorly prepared - too few with current military and weapons training, and too little stock of ammunition, missile systems, spares and equipment.
This is not to suggest current UK forces are anything other than well trained, capable and motivated.
However funding a far larger army reserve (currently 30,000 strong) and ensuring adequate war materials to fight a fairly extended conflict seems sensible.
Fortunately, unlike our European allies, the UK is separated from the mainland by water - a seaborne invasion is logistically far more complex.
Rather cynical - perhaps the strategy is to keep the Ukraine conflict going.
It keeps Russia occupied, is costly in terms of men and equipment, the Russian economy suffers, failure makes Putin more vulnerable, public sentiment may not support further conflict (although when did the public have a say in Russian foreign policy!)
Last edited by: Terry on Fri 23 Feb 24 at 10:36
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Russia obtains audio of German military meetings disussing Ukraine.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68457087
WTF?
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Other than for Russian propaganda, is irrelevant to the actual conflict.
Russia knows we are all planning strikes on their territory.
We know Russian knows this.
Russia knows we know they know.
We have soldiers in Ukraine training Ukrainians and servicing weapons systems - Russia knows this. We know they know this.
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I don't think there's much in the conversation not in the public arena. It's been made public because the Russians know how nervous the Germans are about some weapon transfers.
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When you sell someone a car, you tell them how fast it is and what its range is. Weapons aint no different.
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From the outset NATO has supplied weapons they assess as being unlikely to escalate the conflict, but improve the capability of Ukrainian forces.
A somewhat difficult judgement and as already evidenced by delays in tanks, aircraft and missile systems. All this leak does is make explicit that which has been happening for the last two years.
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IF Russia does win and takes over all of Ukraine, it will be at ruinous cost to them from which they might never recover and with sanctions never lifted in several lifetimes. Plus China might see a weak Russia as an easy target, and Russia will have a large rebellious population to keep subdued.
A Russian win is just as bad a Russian loss - for Russia.
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>>Sanctions...
If only they worked.
Russia seems to be trading very well with 2nd and 3rd world countries who don't subscribe to our values.
Unfortunately some voters are not interested and support the "other side" - e.g. Hamas. I suspect with the right narrative, these useful idiots would support Russia as well.
Police even arrest people who state that Hamas are terrorists - which is the Govt. line.
www.dailymail.co.uk/video/israelhamasconflict/video-3143087/Video-Police-arrest-man-carrying-Hamas-terrorists-sign-protest.html
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Food is going to become an increasingly important commodity - if Russia win they gain control of a massively productive country.
Sanctions will be worth squat when we need food.
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Good point, big wheat producer.
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>> Food is going to become an increasingly important commodity - if Russia win they gain
>> control of a massively productive country.
Except of course, it wont be massively productive once Russia gets hold of it. Even if the country is not shelled to pieces, "Productive" does not exist as a concept in Russia.
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>> Except of course, it wont be massively productive once Russia gets hold of it. Even
>> if the country is not shelled to pieces, "Productive" does not exist as a concept
>> in Russia.
That certainly used to be the case under the communal system.
I watched a documentary not long after the wall came down. The USA's working assumption had been that Russia had been spending 50% of GDP on "defence". As more information came out, they revised that estimate to 75%.
There was an account of how a previous President, can't remember which, had toured a furniture factory. State owned of course. He asked why the lounge furniture was all so heavy and bulky, when most Muscovites lived in small flats. The factory manager proudly explained that the 5 year plan required them to convert a certain number of cubic metres of timber each year into furniture for the comrades. By effectively making the sofas out of railways sleepers they were able to exceed their targets by a large margin.
Even now GDP/capita is <30% of ours.
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Russia outranks Ukraine in the corruption stakes scoring 26/100 to 36/100. The UK by comparison scores 76/100.
If Russia win food production will almost certainly fall from historic levels as the oligarchs fight over the spoils of war.
Of far more concern - when Russia invaded, Europe and US were "resolute" in their commitment to support Ukraine. Trump on the horizon and the inability of the EU to act in a joined up way means Ukraine may lose.
How much confidence remains , assuming an emboldened Russia has further ambitions, that NATO will function as intended and come to the rescue of individual members - particularly smaller ones with less political clout.
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Today Scholz stated that "under no circumstances" will he allow the transfer of Taurus missiles to Ukraine.
His reasons were:
a) To ensure that Ukraine does not use them against targets inside Russia it would be necessary for German military to supervise their use and having German military paticipate in their use would escalate the situation.
b) There are 'secret' reasons that he can't talk about.
In the meantime the Bundestag are still arguing about the British offer to give Ukraine more Storm Shadow if Germany will transfer a few Taurus to the RAF.
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twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1768006778837471247
Denmark isn't the only country, i believe Germany are considering doing the same.
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The Ukrainians are complaining that they have not received the same air support that Israel got last week.
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www.itv.com/news/2024-04-20/us-house-to-vote-on-aid-bills-including-61bn-for-ukraine
The US have finally passed the legislation through, i believe the vote in the senate is a formality. Stocks should start arriving within days.
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Before the vote The Senate said that they would pass the bill to Sleepy Joe as soon as they receive it and the Pentagon has been chomping at the bit to get stuff handed over.
Don't know if the new package will include artillery shells but that is what Ukraine badly needs. They are outgunned 10 to 1 at the moment and Russia is now getting 203mm shells from Iran.
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Yes that's on the top of their list along with himars ammunition and more patriot batteries.
No clusters shells, that was removed from the list.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Sun 21 Apr 24 at 09:01
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Mark Warner, the Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee has told CBS that the Ukraine Assistance Bill should be with Sleepy Joe on Tuesday or Wednesday and that the bill specifically mentions longer range ATACMS missiles.
"If everything goes well with the passage of the bill in the Senate, deliveries of the weapons themselves could start by the end of next week."
He added that the Pentagon should have already prepared ATACMS missiles for transfer to Ukraine.
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Hungary have said that they will block an EU aid package to Ukraine for 2Bn Euros because Ukraine 'discriminates' against Hungarian companies.
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twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1782526548202897781
UK aid package to Ukraine, timed to coincide with the US support.
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The brass in the Pentagon were certainly on the front foot and couldn't be bothered to wait for the House to finish squabbling. An 'informed source' quoted by CNN says that a large proportion of the hardware for Ukraine is already in warehouses in Poland and Germany.
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A report by The Hudson Institute given to the US House claims that Russia has adapted their EW systems to counter the M982 Excalibur 155mm shell, the GLSDB and possibly HIMARS. In particular, the successful strike rate of M982 has fallen from 70% to 6%.
Meanwhile, the Pentagon are a bit miffed with the UK.
The UK wants to supply Ukraine with as many FPV UAVs as it possibly can and has come to the conclusion that it will have to include stuff manufactured in China. The yanks want us to stick to UAVs from manufacturers on the Pentagon's 'White List' which doesn't include Chinese stuff and are up to ten times the price. A UK source has reportedly said that instead of the UK buying Chinese UAV's directly they'll let Ukraine buy what they want and we'll pick up the tab.
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Probably some lobbying over switchblade which was a flop at $25k a pop, the Ukrainians make/assemble fpv drones for $500 a pop.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Wed 1 May 24 at 18:58
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>Russia's economy may start to be feeling the effects of the sanctions.
But this week India Oil Corp. resumed purchasing Russian oil delivered by Sovcomflot. The tanker Vladimir Tikhonov unloaded about 1 million barrels of Russian Urals oil at the port of Paradip earlier this week and there are five more Sovcomflot tankers waiting to unload. Estimates are that total imports at all Indian ports are running at 1.9m bpd.
Gas exports may have been hit but it looks like discounted oil is making up the shortfall. Someone needs to tell India there will be consequences.
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I don't know is that a lot of oil for Russia?
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About 20% of their total daily output.
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I wonder about the reminder. Selling some cheap oil to india will keep them afloat for a bit longer but i don't think it's going to stop their economic issues.
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They know that there won't be any though as long as they don't align with China.
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Being basically corrupt India will swing wherever the money is. Worlds largest democracy? you are 'avin a Giraffe.,
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On a trip to Australia, Anna Baerbock the German Foreign Minister, confirmed that the hacking group Fancy Bear which is part of the GRU gained access to the email accounts of the SDP, including Scholz, in Dec '22. It was discovered in 2023 although she didn't elaborate on exactly when.
A bug in Outlook was the entry point and Czech security services said that they were also targeted.
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>> On a trip to Australia, Anna Baerbock the German Foreign Minister, confirmed that the hacking
>> group Fancy Bear which is part of the GRU gained access to the email accounts
>> of the SDP,
Well I suppose it beats Chinese spies in the houses of parliament.
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And the Pentagon Press Secretary has clarified that Ukraine has every right to use Amarican kit to hit targets inside Russia if those targets are a threat and it is done for defensive purposes. That includes shooting down aircraft inside Russian airspace.
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They've 3 more patriot batteries on the way as well, that'll help. Ukraine looks to be increasing it's air defence as Russia's is destroyed. They've stripped the far east to keep AD in Crimea.
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archive.is/00HJR
FT article on more patriot batteries to ukraine.
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Well it's good to see the Ukrainians are hitting back at Russia.
I hope it doesn't go wrong for them, it is certainly a brave and surprising move.
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I think they'll be there for a while yet, easier if NATO give the ok for weapons to be used inside Russia. But Biden is still in self deterrence mode.
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The Ukraine - Volume 9 - sooty123
