Non-motoring > The Ukraine - Volume 8
Thread Author: VxFan Replies: 94

 The Ukraine - Volume 8 - VxFan

Continuing discussion.

657139
Last edited by: VxFan on Tue 17 Jan 23 at 10:55
  Ukraine - Volume 7 - sooty123
news.sky.com/story/uk-considering-supplying-ukraine-with-challenger-2-tanks-to-fight-russian-forces-12783107

Not much in number but a step up in capability.
  Ukraine - Volume 7 - Kevin
We should have done it ages ago. There's sod all difference between supplying them with APC/IFVs or tanks. All this "You first." "No, you first." is BS.
We should also remind them about all those long range missiles they have in storage. The ones we sold to them about the same time as Iran sold drones to Russia.

Well done to Greece though for openly telling Scholz that he should prioritise sending the Marders to Ukraine before sending any more replacements for their old Soviet BMPs. It cuts off another excuse for doing nothing although Scholz is probably still in hiding this week.
  Ukraine - Volume 7 - zippy
Agree with Kevin here.

The few countries in the West that have helped Ukraine against Russia is dismal, especially when considering some of the richest countries in the world, the response has been pitiful.

It's acknowledged that Ukraine is not a NATO member, but the perceived enemy is the same. Makes one wonder what their reaction would be if our airfields were targeted. My guess they would still be sitting on their hands looking for ways to get out of their obligations.

Bad enough that many NATO members have not been paying the agreed amount on defence. It's like turning up at a party with a can of beer for yourself only when everyone else brings a bottle of decent wine.

I bet you those countries will be aggressively bidding for the reconstruction contracts though.
  Ukraine - Volume 7 - sooty123
Bad enough that many NATO members have not been paying the agreed amount on defence.
>> It's like turning up at a party with a can of beer for yourself only
>> when everyone else brings a bottle of decent wine.
>>
>

Defence isn't particularly interesting to most voters in Europe, it's cheaper to get the US to pay for defence instead.

That may change for some countries, Poland in particular is spending much more, the rest I don't think this war will change much.
  Ukraine - Volume 7 - sooty123
>> We should also remind them about all those long range missiles they have in storage.
>> The ones we sold to them about the same time as Iran sold drones to
>> Russia.

Who do you mean?
  Ukraine - Volume 7 - Kevin
>Who do you mean?

Ukraine.
  Ukraine - Volume 7 - Zero
>> >Who do you mean?
>>
>> Ukraine.

Yeah sure do that - IF you want a Nuclear war on your hands.
  Ukraine - Volume 7 - zippy
>> >> >Who do you mean?
>> >>
>> >> Ukraine.
>>
>> Yeah sure do that - IF you want a Nuclear war on your hands.
>>

It's almost the same as a bully hitting you and if you retaliate, then the bully kills you for daring to stand up for yourself.

When this all started last year I mentioned how Ukraine must be ruing the day they gave up their nuclear weapons for assurances that they would be "looked after".

I think the drip of arms to Ukraine are a huge mistake. The West should have provided overwhelming support from day one. Kill the invader in one go rather than going at it piecemeal, allowing them to re-group. A bit like not taking a full dose of antibiotics and seeing the bug return more virulently when a mega dose at the beginning would have done the job.
  Ukraine - Volume 7 - Zero
>> A bit like not taking a full
>> dose of antibiotics and seeing the bug return more virulently when a mega dose at
>> the beginning would have done the job.

The bug (Russia) can turn your body (Ukrain) into a smoking hole in the ground in a heartbeat. (the Nuclear option)

Its quite good the way things are turning out actually. the Russian army is bleeding a long and slow death in disarray. Their economic and industrial ability is shot The leadership has lost global respect and the hold on power internally is increasingly tenuous. The fear of the all mighty Russian army is down the toilet. Nato has a renewed mandate with more members on the Russian Border.
In short its a disaster for them

And its cost us what? Little wonder we, the west, dont want or need to do more.

At the moment.
Last edited by: Zero on Tue 10 Jan 23 at 15:08
  Ukraine - Volume 7 - smokie
All of that but Putin has also managed to severely disrupt economies across the world with his gas and petrol, and stealing Ukraine grain.

I said years ago to some mates that the way to beat an adversary isn't through violence and bloodshed, it's through cyber crime or economic crime - anything but actual war.
  Ukraine - Volume 7 - Zero
>> All of that but Putin has also managed to severely disrupt economies across the world
>> with his gas and petrol, and stealing Ukraine grain.

Result being no future dependency on Russia = Future Russian influence dissipated.
  Ukraine - Volume 7 - Kevin
>Yeah sure do that - IF you want a Nuclear war on your hands.

NATO has already supplied Ukraine with drones that can reach well into Russia. No different to supplying them with extended range MLRS missiles.
  Ukraine - Volume 7 - Zero
>> >Yeah sure do that - IF you want a Nuclear war on your hands.
>>
>> NATO has already supplied Ukraine with drones that can reach well into Russia. No different
>> to supplying them with extended range MLRS missiles.

With instructions NOT to use them in Russian Territory. The moment the Ukrainians use Western weapons to hit Russian territory, western support stops.
  Ukraine - Volume 7 - Kevin
What do you think hit Engels and Dyagilevo?
  Ukraine - Volume 7 - Zero
>> What do you think hit Engels and Dyagilevo?
>>

It wasn't ordinance supplied to Ukraine by the west since the war started, Israel does not count as "The West"
Last edited by: Zero on Tue 10 Jan 23 at 19:52
  Ukraine - Volume 7 - Kevin
>It wasn't ordinance supplied to Ukraine by the west since the war started, Israel does not count as "The West"

Nowt to do with Israel. Russian media reported that they were Bayraktar supplied by Turkey.

The fact is that Ukraine have hit military assets inside Russia with weapons that Russia claims were supplied by a NATO member after the war started and no-one has batted an eyelid.
  Ukraine - Volume 7 - Zero

>> The fact is that Ukraine have hit military assets inside Russia with weapons that Russia
>> claims were supplied by a NATO member after the war started and no-one has batted
>> an eyelid.

because everyone knows its cobblers for russian internal audience only.

jeez I am glad you have naff all to do with Nato, you have the strategy and diplomatic skills of a drain cover. We'd all be dead by now under your guidance.
  Ukraine - Volume 7 - Kevin
You seem to have ignored why no-one has kicked up a fuss about Ukraine hitting targets inside Russia. No denials that it was NATO kit and military aid hasn't stopped as you profess. And as long as Ukraine sticks to military assets I don't think anyone outside Russia gives a hoot.

Strategy and diplomacy lessons from you?
  Ukraine - Volume 7 - Zero

>> Strategy and diplomacy lessons from you?

merely pointing out the way the west is playing it, and as Russia is in a bind, and we are all still alive, they seem to be doing quite well by ignoring your advice.
  Ukraine - Volume 7 - Kevin
>..they seem to be doing quite well by ignoring your advice.

Obviously you and I have somewhat different views of what "doing quite well" means beause from a military stanspoint I think they are doing an excellent job with the resources they have.

However, at a politial level I see an uncoordinated mess with half-wit politicians hedging their bets and dithering, some taking advantage of the conflict to settle old scores and others playing to the gallery and jockeying for position in whatever the postwar situation will be.
  Ukraine - Volume 7 - neiltoo
It's ordnance.
An ordinance is a rule or law.

Standing in for Duncan.

8o)
  Ukraine - Volume 7 - sooty123
>> >Who do you mean?
>>
>> Ukraine.
>>

Sorry I'm probably being dim, but what long range missiles did we sell to Ukraine at the same time as Russia was buying drones from Iran?
  Ukraine - Volume 7 - Kevin
>..what long range missiles did we sell to Ukraine at the same time as Russia was buying drones from Iran?

We didn't, but if Russia and Iran want to continue their facade of claiming that the drones being used against Ukraine were all supplied before Feb '22 there is no reason why we shouldn't do the same.

They are lying. They know that we know they are lying. Let's cut the BS and make them aware that two can play that game.
  Ukraine - Volume 7 - sooty123
>
>> They are lying. They know that we know they are lying. Let's cut the BS
>> and make them aware that two can play that game.
>>

Such messages aren't meant for us, they are for internal consumption.
  Ukraine - Volume 7 - Kevin
It wasn't for internal consumption. It was a denial to the international community. So much so that Iran offered to send people to UKraine to see the evidence.

www.politico.eu/article/iran-russia-drone-war-ukraine-hossein-amirabdollahian/
  Ukraine - Volume 7 - sooty123
I think you're reading it too literally, in Russia those that publicly lie and aren't challenged on it are reinforcing their position in the eyes of the people.
It's continous, it's saying look how I can lie, outragously so and not be challenged. It lets people know who is in charge. It's a mindset within Russia, whoever follows Putin will be similar.
  Ukraine - Volume 7 - Kevin
Those statements were from Iran and have been challenged at the UN.

I'm also well aware of the Russian mindset about lying. You must have read the same piece by a Russian exile that I did.
  Ukraine - Volume 7 - sooty123
It was a finnish ex-int colonel, recommended watching by someone at work. He does a 45 min presentation on yt.
 The Ukraine - Volume 7 - Kevin
German media are reporting that Scholz is seriously P'd off at the moment because Poland said last week that they will transfer Leopard tanks to Ukraine. Finland has said that they will send a few if that's OK with everyone else and we said that we'll be sending Challenger.

Berlin responded by saying that they have not received an official request for approval to transfer German made tanks to Ukraine and doing so without permission would be illegal.

BILD now reporting that Lambrecht has resigned although not announced officially.
 Ukraine - Volume 7 - sooty123
I think some of his collation have also put pressure on him to send them. It's all merely a matter of time.

Zelensky wants enough tanks ( and people trained) to fill 3 brigades before the late spring, he may well get them.


 The Ukraine - Volume 7 - smokie
Lambrecht resignation is now on the BBC.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64288267

which ends with the line "It is not yet clear who will succeed Ms Lambrecht in a job which is considered such a poisoned chalice that many refer to it as "the ejector seat"."
 Ukraine - Volume 7 - sooty123
news.sky.com/story/uk-to-send-challenger-2-tanks-to-ukraine-number-10-confirms-12786361
 Ukraine - Volume 7 - Kevin
Well, he's a slippery sod.

I thought the announcements by other European leaders would have embarrassed Scholz enough for him to follow suit in supplying tanks to Ukraine. I was wrong.

This weekend he's wheeled out the Chairman of Rheinmetall to give an interview to Bild am Sontag where he told them that they have 110 Leopard tanks in storage but they need recommissioning and the earliest they could begin delivery would be 2024.
Last edited by: Kevin on Sun 15 Jan 23 at 22:18
 Ukraine - Volume 7 - zippy
>>2024.

Better have a conference with the Ruskies then. Will Zoom be ok, ask them not to invade until the Leopards are ready.
 Ukraine - Volume 7 - sooty123
Apparently he's due to give an important speech at the end of this week regarding Germany sending/allowing others to send tanks.
 Ukraine - Volume 7 - CGNorwich
It’s 90 years today since the Nazi party came to power and here we are urging Germany to send tanks to a neighbouring country. Funny old world isn’t it?

Some background information on Scholz’s reasoning.

www.ft.com/content/9e0e5ed8-a924-469d-bea7-dc0de81f2c82
 Ukraine - Volume 7 - Zero
>> It’s 90 years today since the Nazi party came to power
Its just like the good old days, German tanks rolling across the Ukraine pointing towards Moscow

Whats Stalingrad called these days?

 Ukraine - Volume 7 - Manatee
>>Whats Stalingrad called these days?

Rhetorical question? Volgograd I think.

The most shocking thing about the Nazis is that Hitler didn't seize power, he was elected democratically.
 Ukraine - Volume 7 - Zero
>> >>Whats Stalingrad called these days?
>>
>> Rhetorical question? Volgograd I think.

Yes and no. Aware it had been renamed several times, didnt know what the current flavour was. Wont be long before its called Putingrad.


>> The most shocking thing about the Nazis is that Hitler didn't seize power, he was
>> elected democratically.

Err thats a bit of a stretch, in theory yes, but it did include trying to overthrow the government by armed force, setting fire to the Reichstag along the way, and killing and throwing the opposition in jail. Ok at one point he did make himself popular.
 Ukraine - Volume 7 - Manatee
>>Wont be long before its called Putingrad.

He'll either get a grad, or be airbrushed out like Trotsky.
 The Ukraine - Volume 7 - Kevin
Wallace announces aid package consisting of:

A squadron of Challenger 2 with armoured support & recovery
AS90 Self Prop guns
100,000 shells
100 advanced missiles
100 armoured vehicles (incl. Bulldog APC)
Spares for Challenger and armour

www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk-defence-minister-sets-out-further-military-aid-package-ukraine-2023-01-16/
 The Ukraine - Volume 7 - legacylad
Quick question from a numpty...
Why are we making it public knowledge what we are sending to the Ukraine ?
 The Ukraine - Volume 7 - Zero
>> Quick question from a numpty...
>> Why are we making it public knowledge what we are sending to the Ukraine ?

1/ you cant hide transporting tanks (specially self propelled guns, they is big)
2/ Its a message
Last edited by: Zero on Mon 16 Jan 23 at 22:15
 The Ukraine - Volume 7 - sherlock47
>> >> Quick question from a numpty...
>> >> Why are we making it public knowledge what we are sending to the Ukraine
>> ?
>>
>> 1/ you cant hide transporting tanks (specially self propelled guns, they is big)
>> 2/ Its a message
>>

and the intelligence services (Russian) probably knew about it before the government anyway.
 Ukraine - Volume 7 - sooty123
Seems the German government is still dithering. Poland's government said they may send Leopard tanks without permission if this impasse drags on much longer.

The dutch government said they'll consider any Ukrainian requests for F-16s with an open mind. Any transfer like that really would be a step up.
 Ukraine - Volume 7 - Kevin
Afraid I no longer accept the endless excuses as 'dithering'. It's a deliberate attempt to frustrate the supply of any weapons that could possibly be used in offensive operations.
Do you honestly believe that after 11 months of war on their doorstep and all the international pressure they don't know how many £$%^ing tanks they have?
 Ukraine - Volume 7 - sooty123
At the meeting yesterday the German defence minister said that there is no concensus amongst the 15 members, he denied it was Germany against everyone else.
Sholtz wants the US to send their tanks first to give him some cover, the US don't want to for various reasons. Mainly the M1 is too maintainance heavy for the ukr to deal with in a war and this demand by Germany is just a smokescreen, even if they did they'd find another excuse. Seems to be a case of, it's your decision own it, don't blame us.
 Ukraine - Volume 7 - Kevin
More rumours/reports coming out in German press about last week's meetings, saying that there were 'harsh words' between Lloyd Austin and Scholz's advisor Wolfgang Schmidt. Other attendees reacted with 'anger and open-mouthed disbelief' to statements from Pistorius.

CNN is also quoting a German govt. spokesman as saying today that "To this hour we have not received a request (to give the OK). And if they ask, then there is a certain procedure. I can't tell you whether that will take a few days or several months.“
 Ukraine - Volume 7 - sooty123
CNN is also quoting a German govt. spokesman as saying today that "To this hour
>> we have not received a request (to give the OK). And if they ask, then
>> there is a certain procedure. I can't tell you whether that will take a few
>> days or several months.“
>>

That's at odds to their foreign minister last night. Clearly there's a big split in the government over this issue.
 Ukraine - Volume 7 - Lygonos
"I have a piece of paper from Herr Putin...."

Scholtz comes across as a Moscow stooge.
 Ukraine - Volume 7 - Kevin
I read an opinion piece over the weekend where the author claimed that a senior (unnamed) diplomat had said that Scholz's actions were "like acid, eating away every layer of trust we had."
 Ukraine - Volume 7 - Lygonos
Scholz makes me think of how Corbyn would be reacting....
 Ukraine - Volume 7 - Kevin
Phew, that's a relief.

Pistorius assures everyone that everything's going great. "Move on, nothing to see here."

"You often hear that there is a lack of unity among the Allies, or that Germany is isolated. But this is not true at all. I urge everyone, and I made it clear at our Ramstein meeting, not to give the impression that there are differences among the Allies. There are some partners who are still analyzing their decisions and other partners who want to move faster, but we are not divided. So this is an ongoing process."
 Ukraine - Volume 7 - Kevin
>..they don't know how many £$%^ing tanks they have?

Der Spiegel has told Pistorius how many Leopard 2 he has. As of last May there were 312 of various mod levels. Since then, 99 are currently under maintenance and 1 has been written off so they have 212 operational.
19 of the older 2A5 version are used purely to move around emulating enemy forces in exercises so could be transfered to Ukraine with negligible effect on defence capability.

He probably doesn't read DS though.
 Ukraine - Volume 7 - sooty123
It depends on what 'operational' means in this case. Probably not quite what DS thinks it is.
 Ukraine - Volume 7 - Kevin
I think it was more of an unsubtle kick in the nuts for Pistorius. They even had a breakdown of how many of each version.

:-)

The Polish PM has had another dig:

"If Germany does not agree to the Leopard, then we will build a smaller coalition of states ready to share their modern tanks with Ukraine. We will not just watch Ukraine bleed.... It now depends on Germany whether they want to join the mission and stop Russian barbarism, or choose to watch silently and go down in history as those who were on the wrong side."



 Ukraine - Volume 7 - sooty123
news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-latest-putin-could-make-final-push-on-invasion-anniversary-as-belarus-president-warned-over-joining-war-12541713?postid=5293248#liveblog-body


Seems the Germans may well give the ok soon. Its become a bit of a symbol for support, more to it though. We'll see in march as the roads dry up.
 Ukraine - Volume 7 - Kevin
The CDU/CSU have managed to get a debate on the timetable for tomorrow.

They want to "stop the leopard blockade of the federal government and fear a loss of confidence in the federal government among its allies."

Putin has told the SPD he wants his money back ;-)
 Ukraine - Volume 7 - Kevin
Ahhh.

I'd wondered why Germany didn't kick up as much fuss about supplying Gepard to Ukraine, especially when the Gepard can also fire armour piercing rounds. It turns out that the ammo for Gepard is produced in Switzerland who, being neutral, refused additional shipments when Ukraine started to get low.

It now looks as if Switzerland also got a kicking at Ramstein and might be about to drop it's objections to other nations handing over more ammo and even Swiss kit to Ukraine.
 Ukraine - Volume 7 - smokie
I see it's official now, German & US tanks will be going to Ukraine.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64391272
 Ukraine - Volume 7 - Manatee
I heard somebody say on the wireless that the Leopard is what they really want/need. There are quite a lot around, they are on the doorstep, and they burn diesel. The Abrams M1 was said to burn petrol which I don't think is the case as it is powered by a turbine engine. The Abrams is also said to need a lot of maintenance.

For the Germans to say they will provide tanks if the US does seems perverse in implying that the US needs to do its bit, when in fact the US has already provided many times more weapons than everybody else put together.
 Ukraine - Volume 7 - Lygonos
The Abrams can run on petrol/diesel/kerosene.
 Ukraine - Volume 7 - CGNorwich
No electric version then? :-)
 Ukraine - Volume 7 - Lygonos
>>No electric version then? :-)

Heh heh - not like having a gigantic battery would upset the weight I guess, and a 1500hp electric motor is technically simple, but it uses 2 gallons per mile of fuel so the battery would have to be be mahoooosive!

tanks-encyclopedia.com/40-ton-electric-drive-main-battle-tank-e-d-m-b-t/

Looks like an electric drive but combustion engine, a bit like a diesel-electric train.

Some mention of Lithium cells but "not mature enough tech".
Last edited by: Lygonos on Wed 25 Jan 23 at 12:08
 Ukraine - Volume 7 - Zero

>> Some mention of Lithium cells but "not mature enough tech".

Now they would burn more than the rest.

Tesla should make some, put them into autonomous ai mode so they could crash into the ruskie tanks
 Ukraine - Volume 7 - Lygonos

>>Tesla should make some, put them into autonomous ai mode so they could crash into the ruskie tanks

Surprised we don't see road-going suicide drones yet. I presume blocking signals would be relatively easy compared to aerial drones.

Lithium Iron Phosphate (LiFePo) appear much more resistant to burning (plus no cobalt and cheaper to make) - Tesla stick them in their shorter range cars just now (they hold less charge for a given volume though)
 Ukraine - Volume 7 - CGNorwich
LFP batteries do have the advantage though that you can charge them regularly to 100% without battery degradation. In fact they recommend it.
 Ukraine - Volume 7 - Kevin
>Surprised we don't see road-going suicide drones yet.

We have them in Basingstoke. They're called Clio or Corsa but I think they're having problems with the intelligence mechanism.
 Ukraine - Volume 7 - Zero


>> We have them in Basingstoke. They're called Clio or Corsa but I think they're having
>> problems with the intelligence mechanism.
>>


They have AI in Basingstoke, Amoeba Intelligence.
 Ukraine - Volume 7 - Kevin
>They have AI in Basingstoke, Amoeba Intelligence.

Don't knock it. Progress is progress.
 Ukraine - Volume 7 - Bromptonaut
>> The Abrams can run on petrol/diesel/kerosene.

Whichever fuel is used the turbine engine is reported to be very thirsty.
 Ukraine - Volume 7 - sooty123
Seems they are planning on giving 60 tanks to Ukraine, I think they are past that already. Upto 70 have been announced as donated, along with UK and US tanks that's about 120.

I don't think they'll get the 300 they are after.
 Ukraine - Volume 7 - Kevin
31 Abrams plus 8 support vehicles going to Ukraine. Let's hope they go Fedex and not DHL.

PS, It's Zelensky's 45th birthday today.
Last edited by: Kevin on Wed 25 Jan 23 at 19:22
 Ukraine - Volume 7 - tyrednemotional
>> 31 Abrams plus 8 support vehicles going to Ukraine. Let's hope they go Fedex and
>> not DHL.
>>

.. they'll probably get left behind a hedge on the Russian side of the front line....
 Ukraine - Volume 7 - R.P.
Let's hope they go Fedex and not DH

....even worse (n)Everi....
 Ukraine - Volume 7 - smokie
"Whichever fuel is used the turbine engine is reported to be very thirsty."

Oh for the days of Green Shield stamps

www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUSASVsCglk
Last edited by: smokie on Wed 25 Jan 23 at 12:59
 Ukraine - Volume 7 - Kevin
>Oh for the days of Green Shield stamps

/* Trivia alert */

Green Shield tried to make a comeback in the late 80s. I commissioned the company IT system for them (probably the reason they went tu again ;-)).

New head office was in Sutton and I pitched up there one day just as the original founder arrived in a blue Roller with the number plate "OO7" which had been bought for him by the reviving management team.
His chauffer was about 20yo, 6' tall, dressed in an immaculate light grey uniform and black peaked cap. She was a stunner.
 The Ukraine - Volume 8 - Kevin
Ukranian troops have pulled out of Soledar leaving it to the Ruskies. Just too much being thrown at them.
 Ukraine - Volume 8 - sooty123
news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-latest-powerful-explosions-recorded-near-europes-biggest-nuclear-plant-in-zaporizhzhia-but-russia-denies-they-happened-12541713?postid=5310983#liveblog-body


Poland sends more tanks to Ukraine.
 Ukraine - Volume 8 - Kevin
Information coming out that Germany approached Brazil to supply tank ammunition to be transferred to Ukraine. Brazil refused because they didn't want to upset Putin.

Interesting point is that the request was for 105mm shells which are for obsolete Leopard 1s, not 120mm shells for Leopard 2.
Looks like Germany was hoping to get away with promising to provide Leopard 1s. As soon as they could be returned to working condition of course.
 Ukraine - Volume 8 - sooty123
Do the Germans have any Leopard 1s in storage?
 Ukraine - Volume 8 - Kevin
Rheinmetall have 100 in storage which they offered to "sell" to Ukraine last year.
 Ukraine - Volume 8 - sooty123
I wonder what state they are in?
 Ukraine - Volume 8 - Kevin
>I wonder what state they are in?

Wanna buy one? They're not ULEZ but I don't think you'd have any trouble parking.

As a guess I'd say they're what Rheinmetall have kept to cannibalise for spares. They're still in use with Brazil, Chile, Greece etc. Brazil did us all a favour by telling Germany to FO.

On another note: Transfer of 321 tanks confirmed so far according to French media.
 Ukraine - Volume 8 - Kevin
Just re-read ↑ and I should have written "promises to transfer 321".
 Ukraine - Volume 8 - Manatee
I wouldn't propose abandoning UKR as appeasement could lead to worse. Maintaining a stalemate doesn't look like a solution either. So, tanks it is.

But there's no question that or is an escalation, and also a shift towards attack from defensive support.

There's no clear route to safety that wouldn't embolden the Kremlin and the Doomsday clock has ticked a bit nearer to midnight.

Has it ever been more important to proceed with caution while waving the biggest possible stick? And hoping Russia behaves rationally.
 Ukraine - Volume 8 - smokie
I would say some attacking is quite excusable in the scheme of things. I expect that they are not allowed to attack into Russian territory so it will be against land forces (maybe legitimate targets inside Russia e.g. military airports or munitions depots.

Russia has completely decimated swathes of the Ukraine, killing civilians and children and generally committing war crimes each day, so far with little resistance and with some hand wringing but very little action from the rest of the world, except some sanctions which don't appear to have had much real effect.
 Ukraine - Volume 8 - sooty123
I don't think there's much in the Russian bluster about escalation, some countries have mentioned it but its simply a form of self deterrence.
Helping Ukraine at all was an escalation, sending HIMARS was an escalation, Ukraine attacking inside Russian territory was an escalation. So was attacking the kerch bridge. Tanks have been sent since the beginning, and now sending western European is the next one...


If there's anyone we should listen to about escalation it's Ukrainians, see what they think about that word.

The Americans have made it perfectly clear what will happen if they start lobbing nukes about.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Sun 29 Jan 23 at 16:59
 Ukraine - Volume 8 - Manatee
>>I don't think there's much in the Russian bluster about escalation

They'd say it all anyway, so of course it can't be taken literally. Same with "Destroy Russia and we will destroy the planet, a planet without Russia is no use" thing. Truth is not even a consideration with Russian statements, it will say whatever it thinks is most likely to get the desired reaction.

But in the end, it could come down to one nutter. There's no doubting the risk when the war effort is increasing.
 Ukraine - Volume 8 - Kevin
I get the impression that the recent threats and rhetoric about bombing Berlin, lobbing nukes, 'escalation' and 'provocation' aren't exactly coordinated. They're coming from folks like Medvedev, Kadyrov, Prigozhin and other unofficial talking heads.

I think the jockeying for position has already started.
 Ukraine - Volume 8 - Terry
Appeasement or simply sacrificing Ukraine is not an option. It would allow Putin to retain power - other border states could become a target. That most (not all) are members of NATO would not necessarily dissuade him.

The best strategy is to do that which destabilises Putin. Any successor will be aware of the huge cost of the "special operation" to Russia, and the implausibility of victory. A settlement with a new man at the top is more likely than with Putin whose reputation hangs on success in Ukraine.
 Ukraine - Volume 8 - Manatee
That's a fair observation, although contenders who haven't enthusiastically committed to the same objectives might be hard to find in Russia.
 Ukraine - Volume 8 - Zero
www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p0dlz7tz/putin-vs-the-west-series-1-1-my-backyard

A 3 part docudrama interviewing the leaders who engaged with Putin when all this kicked off in 2014.

Will be shown on BBC this evening

Last edited by: Zero on Mon 30 Jan 23 at 08:46
 Ukraine - Volume 8 - sooty123
mobile.twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1619808124483043330

Training started today.
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