***** This thread is now closed, please CLICK HERE to go to Volume 6 *****
=============================================================
Continuing Discussion.
Last edited by: VxFan on Wed 26 Oct 22 at 10:52
|
|
Seems to me Hunt has the job he always thought he should have - PM (in all but name).
|
Excuse typos as on the phone!
I imagine Hunt said something like “accept this or I will quit”
Of course that would have been too much for Truss’s premiership and she would have had to go.
|
I was wondering who actually selected Hunt for the role. I suspect it wasn't Truss herself.
I like him and as I've said previously I think he'd be a good PM - like him or not, he's got many years of solid experience in government - he may have had some bad press at Health over some things but holding down the same job for 6 years can' t be all that bad.
|
>> I was wondering who actually selected Hunt for the role. I suspect it wasn't Truss
>> herself.
>>
>> I like him and as I've said previously I think he'd be a good PM
At least he sounds and acts like a grown up, which is pretty much the minimum requirement for a PM. Nor does he appear to be a loony, so he's a big improvement on the last two.
Make no mistake though he is not a one-nation Tory and is very much a small state advocate. He has, to give him a bit of credit, said he went too far with cuts when he was Health Secretary but I still wouldn't trust him with the NHS nor I think will those who work in it.
If he can do something to restore UK's reputation and make Truss look silly that will have to do for now.
|
Hunt has just announced a new Economic Advisory Council.
"Hunt said the council's members would be Rupert Harrison, who was a top aide to former finance minister George Osborne, Gertjan Vlieghe and Sushil Wadhwani, who both served on the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, and Karen Ward, chief market strategist for EMEA at J.P. Morgan Asset Management."
Not the IEA then. Looks as if Truss's "no more experts" policy is in the bin, right where she should be.
Reeves doing a reasonable job in response to Hunt. She has just hit him with the energy windfall tax question.
|
|
I have to say Hunt is a much better performer than the barrel scrapings that have made up most of the cabinet for the last 3 years.
|
Watching Hunt in the Commons today my attention was on Truss, sitting behind him. She looked utterly humiliated and broken, she is only the titular leader now whether she stays as PM or not. Her political career is finished.
|
>> Watching Hunt in the Commons today my attention was on Truss, sitting behind him. She
>> looked utterly humiliated and broken, she is only the titular leader now whether she stays
>> as PM or not. Her political career is finished.
Fine by me if she hangs around as a placeholder for 2 years but I can't see it happening. I wonder where she was when she fielded Mordaunt as a sub? I was hoping she'd gone to see Charlie to hand in her keys.
Interesting to compare Hunt with Mordaunt. Mordaunt is good at the dispatch box but nowhere near the class of Hunt. There was a nasty undertone to many of her answers. Both of course were in a completely different league to Truss with her robotic "let me be clear", "I am fully committed", "hard working families" etc.
Sadly Hunt also outclassed Starmer. And I'm not sure there's much Starmer can do about that.
I wonder if Truss will do PMQs this week.
|
>> I wonder where she was when she fielded Mordaunt as a sub?
>> I was hoping she'd gone to see Charlie to hand in her keys.
>>
Now reported
Liz Truss was with a key Tory backbench MP when she avoided a House of Commons grilling.
"Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, stood in for the Prime Minster to answer an urgent question on why Mrs Truss sacked Mr Kwarteng.
She repeatedly refused to say precisely where the Prime Minister was but did give the apology about the fiscal statement’s impact on people’s mortgages and firms.
It’s since emerged Mrs Truss was meeting with Graham Brady, the chair of the key 1922 Committee of backbench Tory MPs - and the man to whom letters of no confidence would be sent."
...If that information had been announced at the time the Speaker would have had an interesting job trying to calm down the response.
|
>> "Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, stood in for the Prime Minster to answer an urgent question
>> on why Mrs Truss sacked Mr Kwarteng.
>> She repeatedly refused to say precisely where the Prime Minister
I PMSL when she had to reply, with as straight a face as she could " I can confirm the Prime Minister is not hiding under the table"
|
It’s since emerged Mrs Truss was meeting with Graham Brady, the chair of the key
>> 1922 Committee of backbench Tory MPs - and the man to whom letters of no
>> confidence would be sent."
>>
>> ...If that information had been announced at the time the Speaker would have had an
>> interesting job trying to calm down the response.
>>
I believe SGB was spotted in the chamber, plus they were due to meet last night. I'm not sure she was absent for that reason.
|
'my attention was on Truss'
Mine too. Nice pair.
|
Tonight Beeb headline says "I'll lead Tories into next election, says embattled Liz Truss"
I suppose that's like Kwasi's "I'm not going anywhere" up until hours before he was thrown under the bus.
|
Everything she was elected on and brought in is down the pan, She sounds like she is toast, she looks and acts like she is toast.
Trouble is, the tories can't do another election thing, its forbidden under the tory rules in the first year of a new leader, it needs her to resign, or to lose a vote of confidence in the house.
She'll be leading the tories into the next election failure like a ball and chain dangling at the back.
Good riddance.
|
The penny has to drop at some point. For a G7 country to have a Prime Minister in Name Only is ridiculous.
She has to be chucked out. It's humiliating for her and us.
Then there is the credit rating. I don't see that improving while she's around.
|
|
"Right chaps, we need a new PM. Volunteers, one step forward!"
|
>> "Right chaps, we need a new PM. Volunteers, one step forward!"
Reminds me of the old joke,
RSM is informed one of the recruits father has died, in such a gruesome manner he is ordered to break it to the recruit in a gentle manner.
So the RSM orders the squad to a parade in a line.
"Squad" "Squad squad at EASE"
"Squad - all those with fathers take one step forward". "JONES WTF ARE YOU GOING STAY WHERE YOU ARE"
|
>> "Right chaps..,
....and chapesses, surely. (Unless misogyny still rules)
|
>....and chapesses, surely. (Unless misogyny still rules)
I've declared that "chaps" is now completely gender neutral.*
* An ex-colleague emailed me from his work account last week. They now have to include their preferred pronouns in their .sig
|
|
I've heard that of other companies. I wonder how many surprises there are?
|
>> * An ex-colleague emailed me from his work account last week. They now have to
>> include their preferred pronouns in their .sig
Yeah but what if you are non binary by choice, what is your pronoun then. BIN? as in Bin Laden?
|
>> I've declared that "chaps" is now completely gender neutral.*
Chaps/folks or even guys can be used and understood as gender neutral.
>> * An ex-colleague emailed me from his work account last week. They now have to
>> include their preferred pronouns in their .sig
Is that a problem?
|
|
It is if you'd prefer not to say.
|
>> It is if you'd prefer not to say.
That reminds me that 40 or so years ago people on public facing services preferred not to tell you their name....
|
|
Ooo you're so 21st century :-)
|
>Is that a problem?
Only if you can't decide.
|
|
No, you just cycle through all the possibilities.
|
>>Is that a problem...
It is where some colleagues have let my employer control their Linkedin accounts.
A few are seething after finding that their sexual orientation as detailed in their HR records and considered to be sensitive data under GDPR has been shared within their email signatures and Linkedin statuses.
I find that the regular emails that I receive from my evil director about not having a Linkedin or other social media that the bank can use to advertise on even more rewarding now. I always send them to the deleted folder.
I also get regularly told off for not for not having a photo on my email profile. My colleagues or customers don't need to know what I look like.
|
Looks like the pension triple lock is no more
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63303880
|
|
I know it's obvious but given almost everything she stood for has been shot down surely she should just go. Quickly.
|
I love this clip...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-63303690
I think many feel the same.
|
After screwing up the economy Liz now seems intent on alienating her most enthusiastic voters - pensioners.
It won't have escaped the more thoughtful of her backbenchers that their chances of re-election in 2024 will diminish further.
I am sure the 1922 committee could find a way to change the rules to remove her from No 10 if they so desired.
She combines the reportedly intellectually able with the political acumen of a sausage. If left as PM, there is no guarantees that the destructive stupidity of the last few weeks won't be repeated.
|
www.itv.com/news/2022-10-18/liz-truss-no-longer-standing-by-pension-triple-lock-commitment
Surely this would nail them on as losing the next election. Its one of their biggest blocks of voters, i think its right as its looking increasingly unaffordable however its a brave move if they do get rid of the triple lock.
|
>>>her most enthusiastic voters - pensioners. It won't have escaped the more thoughtful of her backbenchers that their chances of re-election in 2024 will diminish further.<<<
Keep cutting the NHS and care system budgets and there will not be any left anyway!
|
|
Truss now has pretty much zero authority. In effect Hunt is in charge. He may well realise that scrapping the triple lock is electorally as suicidal as most of Truss's other ideas.
|
|
I get the feeling he had accepted electoral murder and genuinely is trying to repair the economic damage
|
|
She confirms it’s not being scrapped…..
|
>> She confirms it’s not being scrapped…..
No longer hers to call....
|
Suella Braverman (Home Secretary) has gone. Another nail in Truss's coffin.
She jumped, or was pushed?
Rumour is that Shapps (a Sunak ally) will get the job.
Last edited by: James Loveless on Wed 19 Oct 22 at 16:45
|
She apparently went because she herself breached the Ministerial Code.
www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-63309400
|
Pushed. And not for the supposed security breach. Conservative MPs are saying she was stitched up by Truss, too many policy disagreements.
Truss had to do something right eventually. Shame about slimy Shapps
|
|
Braverman was further right than Atilla the Hun. Good news that she has gone.
|
|
The whips have now resigned.
|
Bravaman may have created the data breach of the ministerial code as part of a strategy to replace Truss as leader by demonstrating her complete integrity.
I certainly don't trust her - opinionated, arrogant, overconfident and too ambitious.
|
|
Fights in the lobby between Tory MPs and the Whips
|
This is worse than Labour after '83.
I can't see Truss lasting the weekend.
|
>I can't see Truss lasting the weekend.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sm-RE95lKJ0
Pass the popcorn please.
|
|
The whips have reportedly unresigned.
|
|
I can't wait for 'Have I got news for you'. Friday night isn't it?
|
|
I'd say this is pretty much the end now.
|
|
How does it end? Another PM or a General Election?
|
>> How does it end? Another PM or a General Election?
>>
Another PM. They won't call an election with Labour this far ahead in the polls, they'd get a lower number of seats than the SNP! :-D
|
Not sure. Don’t think there is any consensus on who would be PM. The only way out of this mess has got to be an election however painful that is for the Tories. Don’t think the country will stand for anything else.
|
I think election would be a last resort - right now they would be wiped out. Risk is that Truss in loon mode may go and see the King anyway.
The experiment with the nutter fringe has clearly failed. Following the steadying influence of Hunt on the finances, I suspect they will go for a safe candidate.
Could be Hunt, Sunak, Wallace or possibly Morduant who gave a good account of herself the other day and may keep the right-wing vaguely content.
|
Mordaunt came over as nasty, which I suspect she is. Total contrast to Hunt who is as smooth as they come. I thought it was me, but several commentators agreed.
The reason she keeps being included in a putative joint ticket is the nutters won't accept any of the "centrists who are wrecking the party". They are really no different to the MAGA lot in the GOP.
They clearly don't know what to do, but the ERG etc. will be scheming, trying to work out how they come out with some control, which
they thought they had with Truss and her cabinet of the talentless.
My suggestion for them is Gove
Last edited by: Manatee on Thu 20 Oct 22 at 04:13
|
|
I thought morduarnt was pretty good the other day as well, she was on her feet for quite a while covering for the awol PM.
|
|
Couldn't she step down on medical grounds as a way of saving face?
|
She could of course and I think she may actually be suffering some sort of breakdown but the problem is still the same:
Tories choose a new PM. Party is riven by discord and no consensus who that should be. Can they really have another leadership election.? They have lost all credibility
Or
A general election. What the country wants and probably the morally correct thing to do but the Tories would be wiped out if they call an election now.
|
latest An unscheduled meeting between the PM and Graham Brady, the head of the 1922 Committee, is taking place.
I understand the Prime Minister requested the meeting with Sir Graham.
Somehintgs going to happen before days end.
|
Yes, I came here to report the same, from another forum.
She has to go surely...
|
|
I might not need to buy more popcorn then.
|
>> I might not need to buy more popcorn then.
Damn, just when I had put everything into popcorn futures......
|
|
...even if she goes there's a good chance it won't be the end of the popcorn season...
|
|
The lectern is out for a statement at Number Ten.
|
>> Shes gone
The Daily Star's lettuce has won.
|
|
And was still blaming everybody else!
|
|
Its a remoaner plot apparently
|
Lettuce 1, Truss 0
Tofu 1, Braverman 0
|
|
What an idiot. Still deluded.
|
>> What an idiot. Still deluded.
>>
She has gone. Leadership election within a week
|
|
£115k pa pension, not bad for six weeks employment.
|
|
Never, in the field of British Prime Ministers, has so much damage been done by one person to so many.
|
"Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has confirmed he will not stand to be the next Conservative leader and UK prime minister."
Yesterday Grant Shapps was mentioned as a possible candidate.
I hope it was in jest. His Wikipedia long write up is" interesting " .
|
|
I see Wallace was mentioned as a caretaker PM and then he would call a GE in the summer.
|
According to Oddschecker,
Rishi Sunak (13/8)
Penny Mordaunt (9/2)
Ben Wallace (9/1) -
Boris Johnson (16/1).
Kemi Badenoch - 20/1
Michael Gover- 33/1
Steve Barclay - 33/1
Mark Harper - 40/1
Suella Braverman - 40/1
|
There's talk of setting a very high bar for nominations, possibly so high that only one candidate can meet it. Alternatively something a bit lower that will yield a maximum 3 candidates. But if they do that, and the one that comes second won't stand down, then it will go to the members.
Exactly what happened last time when Sunak won the parliamentary vote but the members chose "the nutter", to quote an anonymous Tory MP "the membership seem to want an ideological purist, not a realist". If they can't have Johnson, that is.
The '22 could set noms at 190 and pass the word that Sunak's the man. He came second, so that's as near democratic as they're doing to get. The ERG will go mad. Well, madder.
Personally, I want a GE before Jan '25. But I can't see the Tories volunteering to be booted out.
|
|
Depends how long she has to cover the job before new PM in place. I believe it is two months in post, not 44 days.
|
BBC just reported that Boris Johnson is expected to stand, reported by the Times that he is' taking soundings in the national interest'.
It might not be a bad shout if he returned IMO, he at least has had a mandate from the country....better the devil you know and all that....
|
>>
>> It might not be a bad shout if he returned IMO, he at least has
>> had a mandate from the country....better the devil you know and all that....
He was binned for dishonesty and lawbreaking.
Yes an obvious choice for Conservatives.
|
A tweet further down the page referenced above made me smile.
"My son has lived through four chancellors, three home secretaries, two prime ministers and two monarchs.
"He's four months old"
|
NO NO NO NO NO!!!
Johnson is expected to stand. He reportedly thinks it is in the national interest.
Get that nomination bar up!
|
>> Johnson is expected to stand. He reportedly thinks it is in the national interest.
>>
>> Get that nomination bar up!
Could he actually command a majority in the house?
If enough Tory MPs were to abstain in a confidence vote.....
|
|
Daughter's office ran a sweepstake on when Truss would go. Daughter got Monday. She's hoping she won't draw Boris in the next sweep.
|
According to the Telegraph latest news... Boris came top of an opinion poll of Tory party members this week as to who they would like to see as leader .....
|
|
He's very popular with members, amongst wider voters that would likely vote Conservative he's third most popular. Behind sunak and don't know
|
>> According to the Telegraph latest news... Boris came top of an opinion poll of Tory
>> party members this week as to who they would like to see as leader .....
The same ones who voted for Truss?
|
>> According to the Telegraph latest news... Boris came top of an opinion poll of Tory
>> party members this week as to who they would like to see as leader .....
The same ones who voted for Truss?
|
..I don't think the Parliamentary Conservative Party would savour the prospect of re-appointing Boris as Prime Minister shortly before the Commons Privileges Committee reports its findings on whether he deliberately misled Parliament or not.
Frankly, in this strange old political world, they might not pronounce that he didn't, but that seems the least likely of the two verdicts.
Not a good choice of direction if you're trying to calm things down.
(Though going on their record of judgement to date.......)
|
|
Those members of the Tory Party who voted for Truss seemed to think she was a sanitised version of Johnson.
|
>> >> According to the Telegraph latest news... Boris came top of an opinion poll of
>> Tory
>> >> party members this week as to who they would like to see as leader
>> .....
>>
>> The same ones who voted for Truss?
>>
Exactly! Obviously dementia is more widespread in Tory party membership than many thought, if they've already forgotten why he was deposed just 2 months ago.
|
Boris will always be the man who lied, partied, and got shown the door.
Despite demonstrable leadership qualities (unlike Truss) he will not be able to unite the party and comes with so much baggage that in 2024/5 would likely be an election loser.
Bravaman is nutter right wing and loose cannon material.
Sunak would alienate part of the party which still blames him for disloyalty to Boris.
Morduant has limited but positive public recognition, seems balanced and stable, performs well (better than Kier) and could be accepted by both wings of the party, even if not the first choice of either.
Yet to be announced but I expect the initial round to set a threshold of 25% MP support - limiting remaining candidates to 2 or 3 max.
They may feel it politically important to involve the membership, but given their lack of judgement in appointing Truss, the rules are likely to place greater weight on the views of MPs.
|
They chucked him out for dishonesty and breaking the law, but weeks later he meets their minimum standards?
I know their mad, eye-swivelling loonies in the associations like him, but the MPs are at best ambivalent (they got rid) and it would be an electoral handicap, albeit less of one than Truss.
Mordaunt has a nasty streak judging by her recent appearance at PMQs, and it's a mystery what she stands for. She seems to be a bit centrist but after backing Hunt she backed hard right Truss last time round.
If there's any justice, they should go for an election when they've found a figurehead. Almost nobody can actually lead such a divided party.
They could really do with a proper old one-nation statesman type but they've chucked them all out. Hunt just about qualifies but won't do it and has his hands full. Sunak is head and shoulders the best choice and easiest to justify to the swivel eyes as a democratic choice even though they won't like it up 'em. Providing the vote doesn't have to go to them, because if it does it could be another fruit loop.
|
|
It has just struck me that, had the royal funeral and period of national mourning, with its moratorium on meaningful political activity, not intervened, Truss's progress towards self-immolation would have been even quicker.
|
|
The problem is going to be the factions in the Conservative Parliamentary Party. Moderate 'traditional' candidates will never be acceptable to the increasingly right-wing dominated Party (but would likely perform better in a GE if Truss' ERG-dominated policies are anything to go by.
|
>>The problem is going to be the factions in the Conservative Parliamentary Party
Eggsackly.
What sunk Truss, although she seemed to like it, was being captive to the IEA alumni and ERG lot. They have been very good as a minority at controlling what successive leaders can get through. If they turn on the new leader, or worse succeed in getting another Truss elected, it will go downhill very quickly.
|
Theresa May?
Her resignation speech is hard to watch without sympathy.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KKt-Z5Yk2Wo
The difference in character suggested between her and Truss in their speeches is stark. She was ill-treated by the nutters, and in due course it was demonstrated that Johnson could do no better, save by breaking his own treaty (which AFAIK is still in the works).
If they put her in as caretaker and the nutters piped down for a bit gilt yields would probably drop 50 bips in short order.
Of course that would imply austerity. But financing cost on government debt is not a trivial item when we have so much of it.
Last edited by: Manatee on Thu 20 Oct 22 at 17:18
|
|
100 noms needed to take the start.
|
|
Looks like at a 100 name hurdle, they want to keep it in westminster.
|
Jonathan Hoitinga reckons they'll go for Boris again -
tinyurl.com/5e3vcxa3
|
Talking to customers who come into the shop, you'd be surprised at the percentage who wanted him to stay and now want him back.
A mention of his lying brings the response, "Well, they all do it, he just happened to get caught".
|
I don't think he'll get the nominations. If he does, he's probably in. But then there'll be defections and resignations from the Conservative MPs.
The oppositions would quite rightly go bananas if they bring back somebody they got rid of for being bent. I wouldn't be surprised if the '22 unearths a rule that stops him. But the depths they continually plumb can no longer surprise me.
|
> I don't think he'll get the nominations.
Well so far he's the MP's favourite. 27 backing Boris with Sunak trailing on 21.
tinyurl.com/6bjjap65
EDIT: Now 30-21
Last edited by: Kevin on Thu 20 Oct 22 at 18:48
|
|
I don’t think he will get more. Sunak will win
|
|
The 30 (so far) think Johnson has a chance of winning an election, their primary concern. Stuff the country. True Conservatives.
|
Praise the Lord!
Our much maligned slandered hero and saviour is on the plane and heading back to the UK to save us all.
www.reuters.com/world/uk/former-pm-johnson-flying-back-britain-this-weekend-telegraph-reports-2022-10-20/
|
|
At least we would save on the cost of redecorating the flat.
|
|
...Princess Nut Nut will have changed her mind in the interim. Gold wallpaper is so "yesterday"....
|
>The 30 (so far) think Johnson has a chance of winning an election, their primary
>concern. Stuff the country. True Conservatives MPs.
|
Theresa May seemed to be to be a decent, sincere individual seriously undermined by those who were supposedly her colleagues.
As leader she failed - the lesson - leaders need to have more about them than simply winning a vote. Presentation skills, people management, almost arrogant self-belief, toughness etc.
Truss somehow got the tick in the box, had arrogant self-belief and a major deficit in all other leadership qualities. Rightly she is history.
The ERG at its peak was estimated to have ~90 members (there is no membership list). As Brexit has now happened their raison-de-etre has diminished. They will either need to toe the party line or risk (accept) defeat in 2024/5.
That opposition parties are clamouring for a GE is utterly predictable. They have no control over timing, unless Tories like turkeys vote for Xmas - an excess of noise over substance.
They also have their own internal conflicts and issues. Scottish independence, an active left-wing group (ERG equivalent), nationalise or not (major differences), support or ignore the unions. They will have to resolve the dogma driven screw the wealthy, fair shares for all, with the reality of what is actually achievable.
It is delusional to think they have a collective view of policy. In any event they would be subject to the same pressures and scrutiny over economic policy as the current administration.
Last edited by: Terry on Thu 20 Oct 22 at 19:12
|
|
I wonder if Boris Johnson gets back in, will Donald Trump see it as a good omen and run in 2024?
|
>> I wonder if Boris Johnson gets back in, will Donald Trump see it as a
>> good omen and run in 2024?
>>
OMG, please no!!
|
|
New edition of this pod out tonight. Very enjoyable.
|
Excellent and informative podcast.
Also recommend “Oh God, what now?” which is on much the same vein.
|
How about a rumour the king is talking to the head of the armed forces about a military coup?
Let's face it, you couldn't make up what's going on politically.
|
|
Seems BJ is over half way there with 51 public votes of support.
|
I thought he get 50-60, it's if can get past that number. If not i don't think he'll bother trying.
Sunak is supposed to officially declare today
|
With 100 nominations to get to the starting line, there will be at most 3, possibly 2, and plausibly 1, and conceivably 0.
It probably all depends how many egotists decide to seek nomination.
Boris has his supporters - he also has lots who (despite his obvious talents) would see him as carrying the baggage of electoral suicide.
|
>> Boris has his supporters - he also has lots who (despite his obvious talents) would
>> see him as carrying the baggage of electoral suicide.
>>
Jacob Rees - Mogg has formally backed Boris . Betting on Boris now showing at 23%.
Rishi at 57%. Penny now down to 17%
|
Johnson could get on the ticket if the ERG backs him. Even now there's every chance the ERG will do that if they can't get a tame nutter nominated eg Braverman or Badenoch. It's still possible they'll pick another dud. IMO it was obvious beforehand that Truss couldn't do the job. She couldn't lead a troop of Brownies. They have almost nobody who's capable. Hunt and now Wallace have ruled themselves out. Sunak is capable and quite clearly their best shot at a safe pair of hands.
Johnson is anything but that. He won't play properly with Hunt, he'll go off the rails again, and whilst he might give them a shot at reelection he's far too high risk for the country...which we know not all of them care about...and the party which he could destroy.
The trouble is too many simpletons at large can't tell charisma from bovine poop. It seems impossible that they could bring back a bloke they chucked out for dishonesty and breaking the law.
Nevertheless he's not unsinkable at would probably be good news for Labour. But I care too much about the country to want ever to see him back. He's done more damage to the UK since 2015 than any other individual.
Last edited by: Manatee on Fri 21 Oct 22 at 12:45
|
>>probably be good news for Labour
Not necessarily, many say he's the only one who could beat Starmer at the ballot box.
|
>> >>probably be good news for Labour
>>
>> Not necessarily, many say he's the only one who could beat Starmer at the ballot
>> box.
I think I implied that. They think they have no chance with anybody else, but a glimmer of a chance with Johnson.
I hope for the sake of the country they just find somebody capable. Unfortunately it looks as if it will remain factional, with the separate interests lining up behind whoever supports their policy regardless of ability, and opposing anyone who doesn't, however able.
The idea that there is a mandate for Johnson can't be right after they have booted him out for serial lying and illegality. The democratic mandate, if there is one, is for the Conservative manifesto at the last election (which Truss and Kwarteng ignored BTW, on the basis of a mandate from their internal gerontocracy).
I'd prefer an early election, too much has changed, but failing that Sunak is surely the only responsible choice. He was the runner-up only 2 months ago, and predicted with absolute accuracy the disastrous results of Truss's tax cuts. It is the 'safe' option for the country and the economy.
Anything else is the Tory party treating government as a game.
I see I offended someone. I didn't know Liz Truss was on this forum. Welcome Liz, please give us your insight.
|
I agree with all of that, Mano'tea, but unless Sunak turns the economy around in the 2 years plus before the next GE, the Cons will be toast for a generation.
Sure, many will of course welcome that outcome - I just don't trust Labour. In fact, I trust few politicians really from what I've seen since 2016, but I trust Labour with power even less.
The thing about Boris is - people actually love him. I've never heard that said about any politician before.
Que sera, sera.
|
>>>Truss couldn't do the job. She couldn't lead a troop of Brownies.<<<
Made me smile. On a par with the lettuce meme!
|
>> Jacob Rees - Mogg has formally backed Boris .
Well he would, he spent five years with his hand up his rse using him as a vetriloquists dummy
|
|
Wallace says he's leaning towards BJ, but is prepared to listen to the other candidates.
|
Successor appointed.
twitter.com/Number10cat/status/1583072541677002752/photo/1
I'm off to get more popcorn. Back in a mo'
|
>> Successor appointed.
>>
>> twitter.com/Number10cat/status/1583072541677002752/photo/1
They could do worse. People like cats.
|
Why do the opposition continually bleat about the need for an election.
AFAIK the only two possibilities are:
1. The PM asks the King to dissolve Parliament - completely outside the control of the opposition
2. Government lose a vote of no confidence - implausible - turkeys and Xmas come to mind
Irrespective of one's views on the performance of this government or the attractions of an alternative, it is nothing more than a self-righteous waste of time.
Politics at its best - noise over any sort of substance. It diminishes rather than elevates those who indulge.
|
Well, you would say that wouldn't you?
And I've some sympathy with you if the result on Monday puts the country first. If it's the ERG and local Johnson fan clubs foisting the seemingly non-flushable turd back on us then I think an early election becomes a possibility. Roger Gale and Crispin Blunt have already said they'll resign if Johnson returns, and a couple are rumoured to be thinking of crossing the floor. Didn't his entire cabinet resign only in June?
Of course Labour are flying a kite but it's a perfectly valid one given the chaos inflicted by a divided Conservative party. It might help just a little to focus their minds on doing the right thing with their majority. At the point where there is a majority for a no confidence vote, it could happen. What if the new leader simply can't get bills passed? FWIW I think if the Tories can act responsibly this time then the important step is to get some credibility back. UK is a laughing stock.
Get Sunak in there, keep Hunt, get the forecast-backed tax and spending plans out, start working with the Bank and get the borrowing costs down and then the brickbats might stop.
Sadly I think the party is now too riven.
There are some decent Tories and they are not gruntled.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=VM5ijPHRw88 (Charles Walker interview).
Last edited by: Manatee on Fri 21 Oct 22 at 17:50
|
When did we last actually have an operational government?
Spring time was all about when will Boris go.
Summer was about Tories infighting and canvassing
We are now into October, the economy has crashed. Let’s not forget one of the reasons for that was the Govt inability to do anything about the Energy price crisis. It was being warned about as far back as April that it was going to hit hard but they all just buried their heads in the sand. Boris refused to do anything about it and left it to the new leader.
Truss had To make panic decisions which very rarely are ever the correct ones. Especially when you don’t hold any of the bargaining chips.
|
>>Let’s not forget one of the
>> reasons for that was the Govt inability to do anything about the Energy price crisis.
No it wasnt, it really wasnt. Every country in Europe is having the same issue and none have come up with any more elegant solution.
The reason the economy has tanked (worse compared to others) is twofold. Brexit & Truss's unfunded tax cuts.
Last edited by: Zero on Fri 21 Oct 22 at 18:35
|
That's my fear Bobby. Not that Johnson will win an election, but that the endless scandals will be back and will undermine the UK's fragile reputation and inhibit any kind of progress.
Whatever Labour could have done or wants to do, the next government of whatever colour will have almost no scope to do anything, let alone borrow to finance tax cuts for the better off which frankly was obscene. The black hole is so big that things might not improve in my lifetime. What a thought.
The prime target for investment now is likely to become property recovery funds. Almost nobody wants to invest in UK manufacturing, and reportedly such potential UK investment as there is often on hold pending some sustained indication that financial stability has been restored.
But forced sales of houses whose owners can't afford their mortgage repayments will be a happy hunting ground for the rich with cash to spare. Later they will rent them back, or sell them back when some of that wealth will trickle down not in wages but by way of loans.
To be fair to Johnson (wince) he showed more of a heart than the low tax high growth ideologues. They have no time for levelling up, and the god of growth trumps decent wages, job security, employment rights, decent welfare standards - for people, not animals - and proper NHS funding. All the things that should be the real priorities for government - actually doing things for people, not minimising expenditure.
What sort of policy is it that says workers rights and job security must be reduced and tax cuts given to the better off to create growth, whether trickle down works or not? It's Victorian.
We have narrowly avoided a hard right takeover, for now. We were lucky it was so incompetently launched. But they will be back.
|
Assuming an election much earlier than Jan 2025 is unlikely, there may be considerable alignment across the political spectrum:
The immediate national interest is best served by responsible conventional fiscal management protecting UK reputation, reducing interest rates (mortgages and govt debt), protecting the most vulnerable from energy and inflationary shocks, restoring stability to the business environment.
Problems have been made worse by an inept Truss/Kwarteng experiment, but a high level of debt and inflation was unavoidable by any administration following covid and Ukraine.
Whether "Sunak/Hunt/Morduant" or "Stamer, Reeves" would do better is debatable - they will both be faced with the same realities with few options. UK is one of the highest taxed of similar countries, running a deficit with very limited headroom for grand ideas.
The big risk that Tory MPs nominate another loon or Boris. Party members seem detached from reality - they may vote on dogma for continued chaos, or the persuasive liar with baggage. Either would ensure the Tories lose the next election (whenever it is)!
We all need to get used to the idea that we are entirely unable to influence the outcome unless a Tory MP or Tory party member. We will know the answer in a few days' time!
|
In terms of the next election it doesn't really matter who gets the job they'll be kicked out anyway.
They've been in for a long time, no party lasts forever in government and very few, if any, survive being in power when there's an economic shock/recession.
It's more who's going to run a steady ship until the next GE.
|
Sky shows the latest number of backers as
Sunak 85, Johnson 47, Mordaunt 19
The FT says
Conservative MP Tobias Ellwood tweeted on Friday evening that he was “honoured” to be the 100th Tory MP to support Rishi Sunak.
Telegraph lists all the backers by name
Sunak 97, Johnson 52, Mordaunt 22
Boris and family are in BA economy seats and flying back to the UK now.
|
>>
>> Boris and family are in BA economy seats and flying back to the UK now.
>>
...he's said F*** business again, then....
|
In answer To the thread question, if Boris gets the threshold and it goes to the members, then he is next Prime Minister.
Unbelievable. But true.
|
Not so sure about that. Apparently plenty of former greased piglet supporters are now backing Sunak.
But how the numbers stack up I've no idea.
|
One school of thought is that Johnson knows he cannot plausibly go forward even if he has got 100 supporters secreted away.
He can though delay his withdrawal until its to late for Penny M to muster the 'anyone but Rishi' cohort.
|
I'm not sure he'll stand even if he gets the nominations, which I think probably rests with the ERG mob, but he would certainly extract something from Sunak for withdrawing.
How he must be laughing at those shameless creeps who resigned in June only to endorse him now.
Sunak of course is the least bad option, if not the only option. But he is still a Tory.
www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/05/video-emerges-of-rishi-sunak-admitting-to-taking-money-from-deprived-areas
|
I think it's disingenuous to say something like "But he is still a Tory"
You may not agree with someone's politics or party but they may be an underlying good person.
For example, Teressa May, whilst not the best PM that we have had, she is heads and shoulders above Johnson IMHO just because of her integrity.
As for Rishi Sunak, I am not sure where I stand with my views on him. He seems capable and did a lot in Covid re bounce back loans and furlough, which we will be paying for, for a very long time.
His eat out to help out scheme was dangerous though getting people to mix when it still wasn't very safe to do so.
|
His eat out to help out scheme was dangerous though getting people to mix when it still wasn't very safe to do so.”
It was just as safe then as itis now. Had a number of meals at the time. It was a great boost to restaurants and good for morale in general.
|
With the state of -
A The economy
B The Conservative party
Anyone standing for the job must surely be too deranged to trust with it.
|
>> His eat out to help out scheme was dangerous though getting people to mix when
>> it still wasn't very safe to do so.”
>>
>> It was just as safe then as itis now. Had a number of meals at
>> the time. It was a great boost to restaurants and good for morale in general.
>>
>>
No doubt it kept big chains going and some smaller ones as well.
But it's wasn't as safe as it is now as Eat Out To Help out started in August 2020. Vaccinations started in December 2020. There are many more people vaccinated now and even though I am triple jabbed, I still caught Covid earlier this month. The experience was very unpleasant and I dread to think what it would have been like with out the vaccinations.
|
What difference do you think the vaccination made then?
I have been strongly pro-vaccine, and still am, and everyone says that you get it less badly with the vaccine but where did that come from I wonder?
|
>> What difference do you think the vaccination made then?
>>
>> I have been strongly pro-vaccine, and still am, and everyone says that you get it
>> less badly with the vaccine but where did that come from I wonder?
>>
Anecdotally, Miss Z tells me that patients that have had the vaccine are less ill than those that have not and tend not to be hospitalised.
|
>> What difference do you think the vaccination made then?
>>
>> I have been strongly pro-vaccine, and still am, and everyone says that you get it
>> less badly with the vaccine but where did that come from I wonder?
We're just surfacing from Covid. I was struck down on Tuesday, spent the day in bed with a massive headache and didn't eat at all. Recovered somewhat during Wednesday. Much better now. The cough was very bad on Tuesday, now much less trouble.
I assume this was BA5. Very infectious. We went to a charity quiz in the village hall last Saturday, we and 4 others that we were in proximity to have all been ill this week.
It's the second time I have had Covid. Different strain of course but in early 2020 in took nearly 3 month to get rid of the cough. I'm quite prepared to believe that vaccination was a benefit.
It has been said that the original vaccines are not very effective against BA4/BA5 in preventing infection.
|
>> Covid
I got it two or three Fridays ago.
I am still coughing and it's getting worse. I've hardly been out but not testing positive anymore so I've probably picked something flu like up.
|
Is it just me or is Boris looking a bit of a knob for not declaring whether he's standing or not.
He'd probably say he doesn't want the embarrassment of declaring then not reaching the magic 100, but he doesn't usually care too much about embarrassing himself.
|
|
LIfe's a risk. In the summer of August 2020 Covid was in sharp decline. Nobody was forced to have a cheap restaurant meal were they?.
|
That some actions during the pandemic were flawed is not a reason for damning the whole. The major flaw was a lack of preparedness - subsequent actions - good and bad - were inevitable given the lack of experience.
Overall, I would mark the efforts as B+/A- not perfect but they do stand comparison with similar countries in terms of size, population and economic maturity.
I think Boris is keeping his powder dry - reluctant to announce his candidacy unless he has a realistic chance of victory. If the MP voting thus far reflects the likely overall outcome, he may just muster the 100 votes for nomination but is likely to be 100-150 behind Rishi.
The Tory party members have demonstrated their lack of judgement in anointing Truss. Whether they will make the same mistake again with Boris who has baggage and impending misleading parliament threats hanging over him is questionable.
|
>>I think it's disingenuous to say something like "But he is still a Tory"
I don't know what you mean by disingenuous in this context Zippy.
What I meant was that he is the best on offer but that doesn't mean he's all good. And I gave an example of why one might think that. Probably not a brilliant one.
I entirely agree with you re Mrs May. I don't doubt her integrity or that she is much more "one-nation", now an endangered species unfortunately. She did her level best only for Johnson to evict her and end up with a very similar "solution" which he subsequently wants to renege on.
Incidentally it is emerging that NI is doing rather better in the customs union than the rest of the UK is doing outside it. Steve Baker has just basically said the ERG will bring down the government if it doesn't wreck that arrangement by passing the NI Protocol Bill. Nice people eh?
I hope I do not simply preach unreasoned hate. Or indeed any kind of hate. It's more in sadness than in anger.
I am very fearful of what's coming for the less well-off. The people who paid the highest price for the banking crisis were among the poorest. Remember the benefit and public sector pay freeze?
Only a government that does not, after basic security and defence, think that its first and most important job is to make a decent life possible for all, could have done that. Or indeed be contemplating "supply side reforms" that further reduce workers rights. Truss's recent boast that she would "crack down" (I might have paraphrased, I don't know) on "militant unions" (she meant any union of course) merely increases unfairness.
People surely should have a reasonable expectation of a wage they can live on while not in constant fear of the consequences of unemployment or reduced hours. We can afford this, even in the worst of times, if those with the means pay their way.
To say "but he is still a Tory" was I agree somewhat loaded but actually pretty mild - only weeks ago this government (it is still the same government until we have another election) effectively committed to borrowing an extra £45bn in order the make the better off, better off. While the NHS and social care burn. Despicable.
I know nobody is all bad. With very few exceptions. That doesn't make them all good.
This is of course a massive problem for whichever party is in government now. But I know which party I don't want.
Last edited by: Manatee on Sun 23 Oct 22 at 19:41
|
Johnson has pulled out.
With Partygate still to play out he must have been convinced that he would have been a liability.
|
>> Johnson has pulled out.
>>
Never a safe form of contraception. Explains his number of children :-D
|
>> >> Johnson has pulled out.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-63327087
Ha Ha Ha JRM, deluded are we?
|
...there is only one convincing argument, and that is that despite the claims, he hadn't/hasn't made the cut....
(if he'd really had the 100 nominations, his ego would have said he would win the party member vote, and it's always only been about Boris).
Last edited by: tyrednemotional on Sun 23 Oct 22 at 22:13
|
|
I supsect that he might have just made the cut but he knew he would not win. Couldn't face losing.
|
>> (if he'd really had the 100 nominations, his ego would have said he would win
>> the party member vote, and it's always only been about Boris).
Agreed. He could have been confident of being in the last 2, and the swivel-eyes might well have done for Sunak like they did last time.
|
>> Johnson has pulled out.
>>
>> With Partygate still to play out he must have been convinced that he would have
>> been a liability.
Do you think he really had the required nominations? Or that he could conceive of himself being a liability? I don't.*
He bluffed to try and cut himself in, neither Sunak nor Mordaunt fell for it, and he's fallen on his rse. Now pretending that he's doing something honourable, which from him is basically not believable.
Can't help being slightly pleased that the crawly MPs,cabinet ministers and others who were so keen to welcome "the boss" back and peddled the false nominations claims have been chucked under the bus, reputations very battered. Especially the odious Mogg.
But Johnson, above (below) all of them, is debased beyond measure. His legacy is assured.
*If he really had, sad to say he would probably have got something out of Sunak or Mordaunt
|
|
I wouldn’t rule out Johnson making a successful attempt at retaking the leadership of the party after they are defeated in the next election. He still commands a huge following in the country. I very much think we have not seen the last of him.
|
...whilst it would take a chain of events, the odds on each of those are falling, and he might well not be an MP by the time of the next election.
Found guilty of lying to Parliament by the Privileges Committee; suspended from Parliament; subjected to a recall petition; loses any plebiscite.
Of course, he might then look for a 'safe' seat at the next GE, but the chances of the Tory party being willing to find one for him would have virtually disappeared after that.
I think his star is on the wane. He can't even find refuge as an EU Commissioner now......;-)
|
>> I wouldn’t rule out Johnson making a successful attempt at retaking the leadership of the
>> party after they are defeated in the next election…
That CG, exactly that. I think he’s playing the long game, (or at least thinks he can) God help us.
|
If the Tories lose the next election, I do not think Boris will want 5 years or more as leader of the opposition.
EU role is probably out. Possible in Nato or UN - he would be a disruptive influence but would also initiate desperately needed change - particularly the UN whose performance is close to ineffectual.
|
|
He'd get my vote as Commissioner of the British Antarctic Territory, so long as he lived there too :-)
|
I'm hopeful that he has shot his bolt. He has made himself look ridiculous this weekend, and made fools of half a dozen former cabinet ministers who jumped back on what they were conned into thinking was a bandwagon.
I don't think he has another act, and the old one is very tired. The awful photo released this weekend with the flags, the raised thumb and the upside down phone clapped to his earhole was no doubt artfully arranged with something in mind but just looked silly through my cognitive filter.
How does it strike you? Is he still live and dangerous? Or ridiculous?
www.thesun.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/100053658135112-769948094.jpg
|
|
...putting a clown in a palace doesn't make him a King, but it does make the palace a circus....
|
>> ...putting a clown in a palace doesn't make him a King, but it does make
>> the palace a circus....
Imitation, the sincerest form of flattery:
bathtub tom Fri 28 Jan 22 19:31
When a clown moves into a palace, they don't become a king. The palace becomes a circus.
Turkish proverb
|
Here Manatee, this'll cheer you up for the day, maybe even a slight giggle.
order-order.com/2022/10/25/taxpayers-alliance-funds-union-coffers/
|
The Budget - bathtub tom
