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Continuing Discussion
Last edited by: VxFan on Fri 23 Sep 22 at 11:01
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I've only ever skimmed this thread, but 'Today' (R4) cited that half of UK gas comes from North sea and we have to buy it at commercial rates. So who's raking in the profit? If it's the government, then can they afford to subsidise us. If it's commerce then shouldn't they be taxed to the hilts to susidise us?
Anyone remember the promise on discovery of North sea gas: free gas for life?
Surely we're all aware the strikes are an attempt to bring down the Tory government? Higher pay rises will only create higher prices and who will strike for the poor, b***** pensioners?
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>>
>> Surely we're all aware the strikes are an attempt to bring down the Tory government?
>> Higher pay rises will only create higher prices and who will strike for the poor,
>> b***** pensioners?
>>
I think most people choosing to strike would just like to not be losing 20% of their pay for the rest of their working lives.
Pensioners are fine with the triple-lock matching inflation and generous energy subsidies coming.
There’s no way a Conservative government will let their core voters freeze/starve to death. Mind you, Liz Truss is thick enough to let that happen.
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>> Surely we're all aware the strikes are an attempt to bring down the Tory government?
>> Higher pay rises will only create higher prices and who will strike for the poor,
>> b***** pensioners?
Er no its not. Its about people who have had restrictions for two years, people who were not on full pay, people scared witless they cant heat homes this winter, people seeing their shopping bills going up by 25% in the last 6 months and people finding out that their leadership didn't and dont give a rats bum about them, because the leadership was a lying git who only cared about himself and his posh mates.
Last edited by: Zero on Tue 23 Aug 22 at 18:42
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Not something I have much direct interest in really, but I see the price of fuel is dropping - nearly 20p a litre down from peaks a few weeks back.
Fuel costs have been called out as one of the inflationary elements.
I suppose it's too much to hope or expect prices to come down, inflation to become deflation and people to give back whatever rises they've won on the back of the inflation.
But I would certainly expect prices to come down significantly if energy prices and fuel headed too far south (which they will, at some point).
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I'm not sure deflation is a good thing?
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>> I'm not sure deflation is a good thing?
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Tends to go hand in hand with low growth. But not entirely bad news for those on fixed/capped incomes.
I did OK out of rampant inflation in the 70's and early 80's because I had a mortgage, and despite high interest rates.
I could quite easily end up 20% poorer in income terms for the rest of my life this time. But my children will their home equity increase. Some you win, some you lose. I never liked eating out anyway.
20% of my pension income does not have any inflation protection, and the rest averages a bit under 5% maximum p.a apart from the state pension. Savings will be clobbered apart from what started off as £30k we got into the very last new issue of index-linked National Savings.
Still, as I've just spent all my other liquid money on building a new house, I can at least celebrate the Tories help to buy efforts which usually send house prices up rather than down.
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>> Surely we're all aware the strikes are an attempt to bring down the Tory government?
>> Higher pay rises will only create higher prices and who will strike for the poor,
>> b***** pensioners?
I very much doubt the RMT's members are footslogging for the revolution and the idea the the criminal bar are out to bring down the Tories is nonsense on stilts.
As Fursty says, they're simply trying to avoid their real incomes, which have flatlined since 2008, from being further eroded.
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...the bellwether as far as the railways are concerned is the fact that the TSSA are going out on strike. The least militant of all the rail unions (and probably at the very lower end of militancy of all unions).
Mind you, they do have more skin in the game than they often have had in rail disputes.
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On the odd occasion that we get fish and chips from the chippy I always order a few extra packs of chips and freeze them. 10 minutes or so in the air-fryer makes some really nice snacks.
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Unions and strikers demonstrate precisely the same behaviours as their political and business leaders - using power to increase their share of the cake. Very low unemployment increases the pressure they can exert.
It would be wrong generalise - in some cases demands for more money reflect a genuine need and correction of injustice, in others it is simply a selfish use of power.
If energy costs increase, something needs to give. Short term the government can simply borrow to ease the pain for some or all folk. Longer term, if increased energy prices become the norm, the only solution is reducing other spend (or increasing efficiency).
That inflationary increases are affordable for all, and that balancing the books simply needs a Chancellor to engage in a bit of creative book-keeping, is no more than fantasy economics. That we all think some other group is is profiting at our expense is mostly understandable paranoia.
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I read somewhere (was it here or the Mail? :-) how much the train drivers are paid and wondered just how much sympathy they'd get from the man in the street, the nurses, police and other people whose salaries don't come close.
FWIW my main employer through my adult life rarely gave pay rises whereas when I was in the public sector I got an annual review AND a cost of living rise. I got laid off after just over 20 years with statutory minimum redundancy payments. I'm not bitter about it, it's just a fact of life, nor am I saying that is the way it should be, but I expect there are many people not in the public service who will also not get inflation matching pay rises.
Someone elsewhere said if a worker on £55k is having trouble making ends meet then maybe they are over-committed and should review their spending, or words to that effect.
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I am deeply concerned at the position many people will find themselves in over power bills. However some of the headlines on “fuel poverty” are alarmist. The definition is along the lines of spending more than 10% of net household income on fuel. Some articles take this as post tax income, others include deductions for essential bills such as council tax. Even on the simple post tax version it looks like I will be fuel poor. This may be technically correct but it’s a big step to equate this with true poverty as we may be in danger of doing.
After all I am, according to some journalistic sources, a millionaire due the value of my pension pot.
I suspect our profligate politicians will help me out of my supposed fuel poverty by taxing my supposed millionaire status. It seems a perfect fantasy economics solution.
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The median household disposable income (post tax) is said to be £32,000 if that helps your ruminations.
It's quite feasible that the increase in bills for a good number will be 10% of that by next April.
The government potentially has some control of pricing given the arbitrary linkage of wholesale electricity prices to gas*. I would prefer that they use that, than simply dish out money, but I do think that they will be forced to help one way or another.
*price for all sources is set at the level of the marginal purchase cost for the demand level applying at the time. Since there is always some gas generation required, the price at which that is sold is also paid for cheaper sources such as renewables and nuclear, even coal.
As I write this, demand is 30GW. Nearly 15GW of that is gas-generated, setting the price for the whole lot.
gridwatch.co.uk/
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Definitions of poverty in the UK seem to be used selectively to demonstrate only the argument that is being made, not a reality.
Households with an income 60% below median income, absolute low income defined by reference to low income levels in 2010/11. These are often selectively refined for different groups - pensioners, rural, children etc.
Fuel poverty was redefined in 2014 at 10% of income. It reflected low income levels at that time after some decades of relative fuel price stability and low inflation.
Increasing fuel prices clearly impact those on strained incomes who need support. But asserting that "50% will be in fuel poverty" is a statistical corruption which simply alarms.
Fuel poverty could be defined at 15% or 20% of income. It is the rapidity of price change that creates the "shock". It means changing expectations for holidays, meals out, new cars, bathrooms etc etc. More than 10% does not define absolute poverty.
There is a "green" argument that increasing energy costs will ultimately prove positive. For too long we have been profligate with cheap energy in heating homes, over-sized cars, air travel etc etc. This may be the stimulus to radically change behaviours for the better,
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>> Definitions of poverty in the UK seem to be used selectively to demonstrate only the
>> argument that is being made, not a reality.
Definitions should IMO and in that of Rowntree Trust reflect the need for a basic standard of living (heat, light, clothing, food) including social participation.
>>
>> Households with an income 60% below median income,
is a definition of relative income poverty. I don't know about you, relative or not we'd struggle to survive on £250 a week even with housing cost covered and I certainly couldn't contemplate a tolerable existence.
JRT defines absolute income poverty as income 60% below the median in 2010/2011.
>> Fuel poverty could be defined at 15% or 20% of income. It is the rapidity
>> of price change that creates the "shock". It means changing expectations for holidays, meals out,
>> new cars, bathrooms etc etc. More than 10% does not define absolute poverty.
Do you think that many people with household incomes below the median can cover it from cutting back on holidays, eating out, and new cars? They are the people who are driving all the 15 year old ones you see every day.
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>> There is a "green" argument that increasing energy costs will ultimately prove positive.
For whom? And in the meantime?
>>For too
>> long we have been profligate with cheap energy in heating homes, over-sized cars, air travel
>> etc etc. This may be the stimulus to radically change behaviours for the better,
And the most profligate have been the ones with the most money. The people who are going to really suffer here are those who have been scrimping to start with, and there are plenty of those.
The projected costs without significant mitigation will mean widespread destitution, not just poverty.
Can I summarise your post as "they should just eat cake"?
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>> >> There is a "green" argument that increasing energy costs will ultimately prove positive.
Completely wrong of course. The current energy crisis is about source and continuity, and is driving a green regression of fuel sources. Coal and fracking for example.
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>> Fuel poverty was redefined in 2014 at 10% of income. It reflected low income levels
>> at that time after some decades of relative fuel price stability and low inflation.
Is that right?
Other sources suggest that 10% was superceded in 2013/14 by a more nuanced description based on a range of factors about housing type, insulation etc.
Link here from Turn2Us is a starting point:
www.turn2us.org.uk/Benefit-guides/Fuel-Poverty/What-is-fuel-poverty
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>> The government potentially has some control of pricing given the arbitrary linkage of wholesale electricity
>> prices to gas*. I would prefer that they use that, than simply dish out money,
>> but I do think that they will be forced to help one way or another.
A review over the gas setting the price is under way now.
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This is just one example of what's to come -
www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/23/pubs-winter-energy-costs-soar
And hospitality will be from the only casualty. We could be looking at a dramatic rise in unemployment over the next twelve months.
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National finances are little different to personal finances - add a few zeros, change some of the language.
Individuals facing increased energy costs haves choices - borrow to maintain living standards, cut back on other expenditure, or draw on savings. Those on lower incomes have more limited choices and need targeted support.
Borrowing is seductive - but it has to be repaid. Whether country or individual, it becomes increasingly expensive to borrow (higher interest rates). Ultimately the bank says no more.
IMHO borrowing money to fund a short term problem may be expedient. It is a wholly flawed solution to a long term problem.
Pre-crisis, average spend on energy was ~5% of income - 95% spent on something else. If energy costs increase 3 fold, non-energy spend would fall to 85% - an 11% reduction. The impact on to non-energy spend is arguably more important than the energy increase.
Expect parts of the economy to suffer as spending on other things is reduced. The obvious targets are the discretionary, not largely essential. Spend on hospitality, entertainment, cars, holidays, clothes, white goods etc etc will decline.
This is not good news for business owners and staff, but the current labour shortage means that the economy can "soak up" some decline in activity with more limited personal impacts.
None of the above is good - it is reality. Focussing on its "awfulness" is completely non-productive and simply promotes anxiety. Get used to it, identify workable solutions, and adapt appropriately.
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Putin may well have turned out to have played a blinder here, because I can see Ukraine being sacrificed to get gas prices back to pre invasion levels.
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>> Putin may well have turned out to have played a blinder here, because I can
>> see Ukraine being sacrificed to get gas prices back to pre invasion levels.
Almost nothing would surprise me but that would.
1) Putin would be soon get over his mistake and be emboldened by his great triumph
2) He can't win and get the sanctions lifted. For that he has to lose.
Of course he could 'lose' and still retain Crimea and lumps of Ukraine, but this time I think Russia has to be beaten and stay beaten at least until the Putin dynasty is over.
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>> Almost nothing would surprise me but that would.
>>
>> 1) Putin would be soon get over his mistake and be emboldened by his great
>> triumph
>> 2) He can't win and get the sanctions lifted. For that he has to lose.
>>
>> Of course he could 'lose' and still retain Crimea and lumps of Ukraine, but this
>> time I think Russia has to be beaten and stay beaten at least until the
>> Putin dynasty is over.
>>
It depends how much pressure western governments from their respective populations. They have elections to win and their is nothing like the prospect of being booted out of office to scotch any long term thinking in favour of a quick fix.
Maybe pressure will be put on Ukraine to accept some sort of botched compromise that allows both sides to claim victory.
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I'm not sure the respective populations would actually want NATO or their own governments to cave.
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I'm not sure the populations/Governments of either Italy or Hungary are rock solid behind Ukraine. They'd be quite happy with some sort of compromise that puts things back to normal and the whole Ukraine thing can be safely forgotton about.
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>> I'm not sure the populations/Governments of either Italy or Hungary are rock solid behind Ukraine.
>> They'd be quite happy with some sort of compromise that puts things back to normal
>> and the whole Ukraine thing can be safely forgotton about.
Hungary is heading for removal from the EU. The leadership there is hewn from the old soviet days. Trouble is they cant hook themselves back to the Soviet union, there is no physical link
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>> >> Putin dynasty is over.
>> >>
>>
Ukraine will never get the "donbas" (whatever that is) or Crimea back again, let's face it they are Russian speaking, Russian leaning, and a bit of an aberration when Ukraine split from the soviet union. There will be no end to the war until Ukraine accepts that.
Putin is finished, He's emboldened Nato, proved to be a military numbskull (as all Russian leaders have been) , destroyed the credibility of the Russian forces, given Ukrain an identity they lacked prior to the invasion, destroyed his international credibility, and screwed the economy going forwards for the next 30 years. You dont survive that wide range mauling.
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Russian leaning,
I don't think they are now!
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>> Putin is finished, He's emboldened Nato, proved to be a military numbskull (as all Russian
>> leaders have been) , destroyed the credibility of the Russian forces,
They weren't credible before this. Their lack of ability is nothing new.
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Increasing costs of energy can be offset by government action - up to a point. But cost is only one side of the problem - overall gas supply is limited by the existing infrastructure (ports, pipelines) etc). Increasing capacity, even if supplies are available, cannot be fixed in a few months.
But if/when the lights go out in parts of mainland Europe and people get very cold, public resolve may well crumble. Putin knows this. I suspect next Jan/Feb will be critical - reserves likely consumed and the coldest months of the year in central Europe.
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The has a small window in which to act. The world is heading for global recession. Recession means that gas and oil prices will fall off a cliff massively reducing Russia's income and ability to support the war.
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A break from traditional economics - a worldwide recession will be good for all of us.
Unusual but possibly true!!
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It will not be good for us economically but it’s going to be pretty catastrophic for Putin’s Russia which is heavily dependant on oil and gas exports.
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I heard Russia described* as a gas station with nukes.
* I think it was John McCain
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If things get really bad it might be cheaper to turn the heating off and sit in the car with the engine idling.
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This is when the bus pass could be useful.
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>> This is when the bus pass could be useful.
>>
They're still keeping the windows open on ours because of Covid.
We are seriously thinking of downgrading to one car in the event of things getting too tight, as inconvenient as that will be. My polo died last week (Timing chain slipped and a combination of MoT issues), I have first refusal on a Golf diesel as a replacement but I may scrub the idea.
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>> This is when the bus pass could be useful.
The Circle line used to be good for that, but I dont think it does full circles any more.
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When I was younger, and a regular, the bookies always used to be full of old people keeping warm in the winter.
Not that I visit them much any more but the shops are so quiet these days, even pre-pandemic. Online took away the business I think.
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>> If things get really bad it might be cheaper to turn the heating off and
>> sit in the car with the engine idling.
>>
...and when they get even worse, attach the hosepipe to the exhaust and pass it in through the window...
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www.ofgem.gov.uk/check-if-energy-price-cap-affects-you
Price cap announced, 15p/kwh for gas, 52p/kwh for electricity.
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Gotta be suspicious my days of 'free petrol' from Tesco will dry up soon!
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>> Gotta be suspicious my days of 'free petrol' from Tesco will dry up soon!
>>
I didn’t know you could charge your EV for free at Tesco.
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>>I didn't know you could charge your EV for free at Tesco.
Most large Tescos have a few Podpoint chargers nowadays.
Part of a 3-way deal between Tesco/Podpoint/VW - usually at least one unit had a big screen running VW ads.
My new ZS has a 73kWh battery and can get an adaptor that lets you run a 13A plug - not quite enough to run a household from though but at least a washing machine or tumble dryer...
Last edited by: Lygonos on Fri 26 Aug 22 at 10:57
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>> I didn’t know you could charge your EV for free at Tesco.
pod-point.com/rollout/tesco-ev-charging
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McCain described Russia as a Gas Station run by the mafia
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I'm sure this point has been made before but the reference to a price cap of £3549 is thoroughly misleading. A lot of people will pay more, maybe lots more.
The rates that are capped are those per kwh for gas and electricity and the daily standing charge. A cap figure £3549 is arrived at by applying those charges to an average user paying for a dual fuel supply by direct debit.
What you actually pay depends on your usage, tariff and payment method.
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>> I'm sure this point has been made before but the reference to a price cap
>> of £3549 is thoroughly misleading. A lot of people will pay more, maybe lots more.
>>
>>
I don't think it helps the media only mention the assumed average bill and the then 'price cap', it's misleading and confusing for many.
I assume they all do it because it's more dramatic headline wise.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Fri 26 Aug 22 at 12:23
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>>I assume they all do it because it's more dramatic headline wise.
No, it's because the sums are too hard for journalists ( and, unfortunately, for the majority of the population)
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The cost of a month’ s energy this winter will get you a return ticket for two to the Canaries. I know where I will be in February.
Last edited by: CGNorwich on Fri 26 Aug 22 at 13:03
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Even cheaper to do 3 months in Mainland Spain. I did 3 months in Tenerife back in the early 90s
Came back feeling like a new man ... but I couldn't find one, so I went back to the wife.
:o}
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Yes mainland Spain is cheaper but the Canaries are warmer! Thinking of La Palma this year. My favourite island and with few direct flights and the recent volcanic eruption accomodation very reasonable.
Most property now bookable with free cancellation so no downside in booking now.
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Any chance of a month or 3 CG? A week is just getting started.
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Perhaps it sounds too technical speaking in p/kwh. There's lots that have no idea how many units just how much their DD is.
Looking online, there's some people in for a real shock, people using 20/30000 or even 40,000 kwh of gas, I assume they must live in a barn. No idea how anyone in a normal house use that much.
I think the average is 10,000 kwh for gas.
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Just checked my gas, estimated 17,846. Said to be accurate based on submitted readings.
That's a four bed house with two occupants both part retired/part work from home.
Smart meter being fitted a week today.
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>> I think the average is 10,000 kwh for gas.
>>
Well I live in a modern 4 bedroom detached, reasonably well insulated gas heated house and used 20,500 KWh of gas on average for 2020 and 2021. Currently running at 9296 KWh as of yesterday. With 4 months to go reckon that will end up at 15,000 in total for 2022. Reduction mainly due to new more efficient boiler and mild Jan/Feb/ March this year.
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I was a bit mean with putting the gas heating on last winter. My total 2021 usage was 11893 kWh. Summertime this year will be somewhat lower as I fitted a diverter to use the excess solar to the immersion (which cost £320) which has meant for days on end we've not used any gas at all. 2021 June, July, Aug 993 kWh. 2022 (to date) 119 - so quite a significant saving, more than I thought (about £65 this summer alone).
My electricity was 4810 kWh, assisted by solar panels which generated about 2588 kWh, so 7500 kWh electricity in total. This year usage will be considerably higher due to more car charging, but that in turn is cheaper than the equivalent petrol miles.
Last edited by: smokie on Fri 26 Aug 22 at 13:26
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I worked out mine at 8000 kwh for gas.
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7500 is a lot of electricity if you are not using it for heating Our average for past 3 years is only 3800 average and we have no solar panels
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...we're neither profligate nor über-careful (though lights etc. not in use are switched off pdq).
4-bedroomed house 20,500 kWh gas, and 2300 kWh electricity a year.
We do have an open fire in the lounge which is used (coal) on the colder days, and with a central chimney that leads to the thermostatic valves on the CH closing somewhat earlier around the house.
It isn't the best-insulated house by modern standards, but sufficient for the energy bills to remain the same when we moved eons ago, despite having twice the floor area as the previous house.
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1999 - 3 bed stone built detached. More loft insulation than B & Q have in stock !
My average electric over the past 3 years is 1510...which is pretty consistent. Average gas over 3 years is 495.....my DD has increased from £60 pcm, which it has been for a few years, to £90 and that’s obviously going to increase again.
Single occupancy, I’m usually away for 4 of the coldest months of the year so those are very false figures. However, even in the coldest months when I’m at home, my gas CH is only on for one hour each AM & PM, I light my multi fuel stove at lunchtime so by mid/late afternoon as darkness approaches the lounge is very warm. Plus 10 x 25kg bags of coal a year, and a new boiler 18 months ago has seen my gas consumption drop like a stone. With hindsight that was a good investment, but pure luck on my part.
When I’m away I turn on the frost stat, but never bother with lights on timers etc. Obviously water off as well.....that’s £225 pa at the moment.
£64.78 Ryanair just booked for 27/09, includes a 20kg checked bag , cabin bag and reserved seat. Dirt cheap Spanish rental for 6+ weeks. That can be offset against gas and leccy consumption whilst I’m away.
Last edited by: legacylad on Fri 26 Aug 22 at 15:43
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Average means that some will pay more AND some will pay less.
Those paying more often own larger properties, behave with scant regard for consumption, with typically higher incomes. If they feel so motivated, they can almost certainly use less energy.
Those paying less probably have smaller properties, and lower incomes. They have less scope to change habits - although flat living does not preclude profligacy - eg: thermostats set to 25C.
The problems are much more severe if you are elderly, disabled, ill, very young children, low income. They need particular help.
The magic money tree is an illusion, not the solution. Energy insecurity and reliance on despotic bits of the world for supply seems an embedded UK energy strategy dominated by low prices.
We are paying the price for a failure to put the needs of the wider society before the interests of protest groups - we should have acted with far more resolve to replace of nuclear power, wind turbines, Severn Barrage etc. We may now be in a much stronger position.
I suspect there will be a severe recession as people react to the squeeze. Fortunately we start with full employment and more vacancies than job seekers. Unemployment may not be the main problem, although many businesses will struggle and some fail.
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My usage is about 14300 kw gas and 13300 elec so I will be around the average of £3.6k if nothing changes in our useage. Our house is 1990’s 4 bed with double glazing and the standard thin 90’s loft insulation.
One surprise this summer has been that gas hot water in our well insulated cylinder only needs three one hour sessions week to provide all our hot water needs. Probably a pound a week. It’s space heating that is the killer. I am quite surprised at how many kw of gas this uses for winter heating, say 14000kw in seven active heating months. It must be 60kwh a day in winter. That’s a lot of energy.
Even it were free this seems environmentally reckless.
I will try to cut back on central heating and use our efficient gas fire to keep the living room warm
As for the lack of U.K. power initiatives they would not have helped the price if they were not nationalised. It’s market pricing that’s causing the huge rises.
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>> My usage is about 14300 kw gas and 13300 elec
That seems a lot of electric, do you have an electric car?
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Well spotted, it’s 3300kw of electricity.
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Giving my current meter readings to Scotpower this am had a quick look at best fxed deal available now. Best Offer was about £750 per month to replace my fixed deal to Dec 31 2022, currently paying £170.
I can only assume that they have factored in the the next CAP increase?
Something is going to have to go!
Last edited by: sherlock47 on Sun 28 Aug 22 at 11:25
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This BBC article suggests the average house will not pay more than £2500. And has he assumptions of 12000 kWh gas and 2900 kWh electricity.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62833623
Seems I have a bit of work to do to get my leccy down (though a chunk of my usage is charging the car - I wonder what happens to people above the average?)
Last edited by: smokie on Thu 8 Sep 22 at 20:02
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That seems a lot of electric, do you have an electric car?
That will be the cannabis plsnts growing in the loft. Very enrgy intensive all that heat and light
:-)
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CGN well there goes your discount.
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"That will be the cannabis plants growing in the loft. Very energy intensive all that heat and light"
:-)
Not if you bypass the meter it isnt :))
Last edited by: Fullchat on Fri 26 Aug 22 at 18:21
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>> Those paying more often own larger properties, behave with scant regard for consumption, with typically
>> higher incomes. If they feel so motivated, they can almost certainly use less energy.
No argument with 'often' but that's no help to those in jerry built and poorly insulated properties or lets where landlords have no interest in leaky single glazing, redundant chimneys etc.
>> The problems are much more severe if you are elderly, disabled, ill, very young children,
>> low income. They need particular help.
Those problems can be addressed through the benefits system. Applying them as permanent as opposed to temporary uplifts to Universal Credit while protecting those who are worse off choosing to migrate would accelerate the run down of legacy benefits.
Removing the benefit cap and two child limit would ease problems also remove 'poverty by policy'. Local Housing Allowance should work as intended ensure money allowed for private rents matched the market. If the market's not working look at other solutions - rent controls work in other advanced economies.
>> We are paying the price for a failure to put the needs of the wider
>> society before the interests of protest groups - we should have acted with far more
>> resolve to replace of nuclear power, wind turbines, Severn Barrage etc. We may now be
>> in a much stronger position.
Protest groups were part of the equation but so was slavish devotion to letting 'the market' dictate how electricity was generated - see the 'dash for gas'.
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Protest groups were part of the equation but so was slavish devotion to letting 'the
>> market' dictate how electricity was generated - see the 'dash for gas'.
I'm not so sure about that, the government went for gas and away from coal. I think that was done with foresight and as a matter of policy not just left up to various companies.
I'm not sure there was were many viable alternatives, hydro, nuclear?
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>..rent controls work in other advanced economies.
Where?
It certainly didn't work too well in Berlin 2 or 3 years ago. Private landlords could get better returns on their money elsewhere so the number of properties available for rent fell by 50%.
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>>Where?
Apparently not in Ireland either.
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It is grim but, unlike most of the media which seeks to catastrophise, just about the first objective analysis of what is happening, why, and the implications for different groups.
A strong argument for capping prices at lower levels for consumption up to (say) about half average consumption and letting the market do the rest.
This would ensure all have access to affordable basic power supplies, benefit the mainly the lower paid and those with smaller properties.
For higher consumption, prices would encourage energy saving measures and reduce profligacy.
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Funny how Covid now seems like a walk in the park.
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If 'the market' determines the price of energy can anyone explain how the US seem to have avoided the massive price rises?
On here we've established that being self sufficient in energy doesn't protect you so I just wondered why we aren't hearing about them.
Also there was an interview with a rep from the UK's energy resistance department (?) who was advocating the ramping up of fracking to help..... he said that this would give us cheap gas.... the interviewer pointed out that the gas would belong to the company extracting it and that they would sell it on the open market so the UK consumer would not benefit.... you could hear the guy coughing and spluttering saying 'well why would they do that!' and that the Govt would 'make' them sell it to the UK at cost price.... as if!
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>>If "the market"... how the US....
Remember the snow in Texas a year or two ago..
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/feb/24/texas-energy-bills-scandal-snow-storm
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We have been going through business customer's accounts at work and adding multipliers to their electricity and gas consumption figures.
It is very worrying re the number of manufacturing businesses that will not be viable at current usage levels without significant price increases for their products - if that is even possible.
Businesses with some "fat" are likely to be ok, but others, with limited tangible net worth, or already very highly geared are really going to suffer.
Our bad debt provisions are rising.
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Well we’ve been away for 10 days and I switched off everything except broadband modem and the fridge freezer. I only left the router on because in the past it’s been hard to awaken if switched off.
The electric consumption was 20 units for the 10 days. At the new tariffs that’s £10 plus standing charges. Roughly a total of £600 a year. For comparison I was paying about £1000 a year for all my power before the cheap suppliers failed.
Once the heating and lighting go on top of that base £600 I am going to face a big increase. Nothing new there of course but the high cost of the base usage shows how much of a challenge it is to anyone on a tight budget.
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I've gone round and trimmed all the obvious fat I could find, by removal/turning off/adding smart plug routines.
The house baseload seems now to be now about 8 to 10 Kw a day, and identifying it all is proving tedious. On a given day we might use the dishwasher but not the hoover, or the washing machine, tumble dryer, hair dryer, and so on in a million combinations.
Then I decided it was pointless to try and go further. Historically we always paid for exactly what we used and that has sat at about £90 a month. If the new tariff is triple or quadruple what I'm on now, which it seems it will be, then we will be paying £300-£400 a month, and that's all I need to know.
Maybe the bits I've done might make it a wee bit less, but that's probably where it sits. I'm fortunate in one sense, as I'm fixed on my rate until next May, but at that point the bill will leap. And a couple of hundred pounds a month will no longer be spent on other things.
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I wonder how long it will be before the rest of the world decide to throw Ukraine under a bus?
Their must be mutterings behind closed doors.
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Had the West let Ukraine succumb at the outset the war would be over by now.
Having supported Ukraine, a lack of resolve in their defence would encourage Russia to further aggression in the expectation that the West will simply crumble. Not a good outcome!
The disconnect between public pressure to resolve the energy crisis - both price and supply - and political strategy will reach a peak as winter sets in. A face-saving political solution probably lacking in decency and morality seems likely.
This will not avoid the urgency of a long term fix to energy independence which needs massive alternative investment in green and nuclear technologies.
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>> Well we’ve been away for 10 days and I switched off everything except broadband modem
>> and the fridge freezer. I only left the router on because in the past it’s
>> been hard to awaken if switched off.
You forgot the pilot light on your gas boiler, oven clock and alarm system.
Of those 3 I’ll turn off the oven clock when I fly south next month...definitely won’t be leaving lights on timers. Not that I ever do.
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Don’t think modern gas boilers have a pilot light anymore.
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Not they use electric ignition systems. A boiler with a pilot light is probably due for replacement.
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>> Not they use electric ignition systems. A boiler with a pilot light is probably due
>> for replacement.
>>
In view of current situation I think I would keep it. At least you can light the boiler when the lights go out. Beats having the gas stove ON.
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“ At least you can light the boiler when the lights go out. “
You can’t The boiler fan won’t work and nor will the central hating pump come to that.
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>> You can’t The boiler fan won’t work and nor will the central hating pump come
>> to that.
You're right about the pump but a system old enough to have a pilot light is probably too old to have a blown flue. Hot water might be direct/thermal too. We had that associated with gas warm air heating at our last place - vented via a 'chimney' to an outlet on the roof.
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>> You can’t The boiler fan won’t work and nor will the central hating pump come
>> to that.
My old house had a back boiler with a pilot light. The hot water sytem is thermo syphon and I have to turn off an isolator valve on the pump to prevent the upstairs rads and downstairs pipes from getting hot. Some warmth would reach the downstairs rads.
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>> Don’t think modern gas boilers have a pilot light anymore.
>>
You live & learn. I didn’t know that.
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Has anyone done a cost / benefit analysis of getting your own generator for 24/7/365 use.
I suspect it is not going to be cost effective but with electricity at 50-60p per kw hour the break even point must be getting nearer?
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There are properties in Cornwall which are not connected to the mains so rely on diesel generators.
When I was in the mobile car tuning game, I had a petrol Kawasaki generator to run my Sun engine analyser. I've thought about getting one 'ere because if the leccy goes orf I've no water as I have a private (borehole) water supply.
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I have small genny, I think it farts out 80w. It hasn't been used for years but I think with a new spark plug and a petrol change it might just lumber into life. It should be enough to power the fan of my Little Devil propane garage heater and a couple of LEDs. We can hunker down in the kitchen/diner and keep warm if the gas and leccie fail. I have some camping lanterns, I always have a good amount of AA batteries in the drawer and we have candles as well. There's 10 gallons of petrol in the garage as well,,,,we can always sit in the car ! Off to change my empty 13Kg Propane this week.
All a legacy of the last cuts, 1973 was it ?. Of course, don't forget something to light the candles with, we're ok there, I buy disposable lighters by the 50 box from Amazon for her fags, and the workshop.
Ted
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>>All a legacy of the last cuts, 1973 was it ?
Bout then. I had 25 gallons of 4 star stored in my toilet - only had 2 rooms back then, no bathroom or kitchen.
How did we survive??
Last edited by: Dog on Mon 29 Aug 22 at 16:47
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>> >>All a legacy of the last cuts, 1973 was it ?
>>
>> Bout then. I had 25 gallons of 4 star stored in my toilet - only
>> had 2 rooms back then, no bathroom or kitchen.
Didn't you lose it when you flushed ?
Ted
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Has anyone done a cost / benefit analysis of getting your own generator for 24/7/365 use.
Not done but, I have a 300W 12 V inverter sitting on the shelf - maybe the Panda that is currently awaiting an MoT could see service as 12v 40A motor generator set. Could run the ch pumps.
Can I still get red diesel? Something in the back of my mind is the government have made it more difficult to get?
Found this on HMRC site,
Any other machine or appliance (that is not a vehicle or a vessel) may use rebated fuel only when it’s being used:
for purposes relating to agriculture, horticulture, aquatic farming or forestry
on a golf course, driving range or land maintained by a community amateur sports club
to operate or maintain equipment in a travelling fair or travelling circus
for heating, or to generate electricity for non-commercial premises, including caravans used for accommodation of those who travel with a travelling fair or travelling circus
for any other heating use, provided it’s using kerosene
A machine or appliance should only contain rebated fuel if it’s being used, or was last used, for one of these purposes.
Last edited by: sherlock47 on Mon 29 Aug 22 at 15:20
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300w 12v inverter? you do realise how pathetic that output is?
As a generalisation, petrol/diesel generators are the most expensive sources of electric power by a long way, which is why they are only ever standby,
Last edited by: Zero on Mon 29 Aug 22 at 15:25
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how pathetic that output is?
Of course I know, plenty to run 2 ch pumps, boiler a few LED lamps, keep phones charged........
Alternator only used for intermittent recharge of the battery.
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>> Has anyone done a cost / benefit analysis of getting your own generator for 24/7/365
>> use.
>>
>> I suspect it is not going to be cost effective but with electricity at 50-60p
>> per kw hour the break even point must be getting nearer?
>>
I think it works out at 20 p/kwh but that's just the red diesel cost. You're looking at a few grand in set up costs on top.
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You might find gennys have gone up a lot and/or are hard to find.
SWMBO reports that the Ninja all singing all dancing cooker thing we have downstairs is not easily available atm as they are considered very fuel efficient, though I can see them on Amazon.
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If there is a risk that the lights will go out (rather than just get more expensive to run), generators may be a worthwhile contingency back up for lights and low draw appliances. You will need a chunky piece of kit to heat the home, provide hot showers and food.
I am sure I read many years ago that someone had re-purposed an old Fiat engine to provide electricity from the alternator and use surplus combustion heat usually lost through a radiator to heat hot water and radiators.
Otherwise - as about 60% of energy consumption in the UK is for space heating - it probably makes more sense to cover the extra energy cost through buying a set of thermals and turning the heating dow 4 degrees.
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Guess one would need to keep a fair stock of fuel to run a genny too. Petrol pumps can't dispense without power.
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>> Otherwise - as about 60% of energy consumption in the UK is for space heating
>> - it probably makes more sense to cover the extra energy cost through buying a
>> set of thermals and turning the heating dow 4 degrees.
I agree, but it doesn't work for the boss who gets cold plates even when wearing a "slanket". Since Covid she's been worse, feels cold almost all the time - is this common? If so it could have a material effect on energy demand.
I think a lot of people can probably run bedrooms cooler - I imagine many of us grew up in homs without heated bedrooms.
Last edited by: Manatee on Mon 29 Aug 22 at 21:17
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SWMBO is cold nearly all the time, and doesn't let up about it. I have suggested she should see a doc about it but she's really fairly fit so I suspect it's "just the way she is".
We've both managed to avoid Covid so not related in her case.
She has an electric throw for the winter for using in the lounge, maybe as I've always been a bit stingy with the heating but I really don't like it too hot. And last year she got an electric underblanket for the bed but it only heats her side. It's one she can (and does) keep on all night.
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Regarding power cuts I read somewhere that domestic gas will be very unlikely to be turned off due to the safety issues on domestic appliances when they turn it on again. Big professional users presumably can still be cut off or ordered to shut down. So although my central heating won’t work without an electric supply my gas fire will. Luckily it’s a proper heater, not just a flame effect one.
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>>the boss who gets cold plates even when wearing a "slanket". Since Covid she's been worse, feels cold almost all the time - is this common?
There was an episode of The Outer Limits on Friday where an astronaut (William Shatner) returns from Venus to find he is constantly cold. Has the boss been away lately?
hth.
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I thought men came from Mars, Dog. It's women that come from Venus
Mrs C runs very cold. Mountain fleece indoors most of the year, etc. I run very hot. So hot I've seen the doctor a couple of times, but of course they smile and nod and say well, nothing we can do, but come again if it gets no better.
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>>I thought men came from Mars, Dog. It's women that come from Venus
You're not wrong there Cc!!
I'm a chilly mortal too as it happens, whereas Mrs Dog is like you. I put it down to our doshas, I'm Vata and my better half is Pitta.
Gimme the hot country any day!
:)
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>my better half is Pitta
Well bread, I expect.
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Made me think of "French bread", etc. Two Ronnies. "Crossed lines". Showing its age, but hey ho.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=N6jWCVO38iA
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>> Showing its age, but hey ho.
Aren't we all dear :o)
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Interesting discussion
Here are some of my stats from which you can draw your own conclusions:
Moved to Octopus Go last year, so only approximate stats for all:
Annual Electricity consumption 14MWh
Annual Solar production 7.4MWh
If all solar used (which it pretty much is as we have a diverter to hot water, and recently batteries) Total consumption 21.4MWh
which at say 40p/KWh would be an annual bill of around £8.6K
This includes charging the EV
I installed 25KWh of battery storage costing £10.5K. (10 x 2.5KWh units + 2 inverters each at 3.6KW = 7.2 KW supply)
Almost all supply is in the 4 hours from 00:30-04:30 @ 7.5p/KWh - so on the above usage we should pay 14K x 0.075 or around £1K a year for electricity without the standing charge. This seems to be on track as it currently is about £60/month without the standing charge because it's sunny.
I guess Octopus think there is something wrong as they have read our meters twice this month, but a quick glance at our hourly usage would have told them otherwise and saved them the bother.
It's not hard to see that the batteries have a very fast payback and almost a no-brainer until everyone decides to go this route.
The other nice thing is that in a power failure we can basically power the whole office for just over a day without interruption. The office takes anywhere from 300 to 1500W depending on aircon etc.
A friend of mine who does some server hosting from home and has a baseline usage of 50KWh/day without the EV has just installed 30KWh of batteries for the same reason.
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You must have about 32 panels then?
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24 @330W - 2 Solar inverters and 2 x FIT. Annual payment about £2.5K
Last edited by: car4play on Tue 30 Aug 22 at 12:34
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This only works really well because of the ability to recharge batteries at 7.5p KWh overnight and avoid buying in electricity at full rates during the day.
At some point the cheap rate will disappear - the market will ensure that lots of folk will sign up to the deal, demand increases, price goes up.
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Correct. One is effectively playing the market.
The question is though, how long do the cheap rates apply and how quick is the payback. I don't see even night rates getting anywhere near day rates in the next couple of years, by which time they will have paid off. Having solar storage rather than either sending it back to the grid or sticking it into hot water also benefits anyway. Like all these things one has to 1) get in early, and 2) be able to spend on them.
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Just heard on the 4pm news that the US Govt are instructing 'their' oil companies to reduce the amount of oil they are exporting so they can guarantee home supplies which I guess will keep theirs prices down.... find it odd that a country like the US with the ultimate 'free market' are able to force their companies to do what they want and yet over here our Govt seems very reluctant to intervene.
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>> and yet over here our Govt seems very reluctant to intervene.
>>
Does anyone know if our Govt gets a percentage cut of the gas or oil produced (not duty, taxes etc.) but income on the sale?
(AIUI the commodity belongs to the Crown and the oil companies are given a licence to extract and sell it?)
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>> find it odd that a country like
>> the US with the ultimate 'free market' are able to force their companies to do
>> what they want and yet over here our Govt seems very reluctant to intervene.
The US used to have, and I think still do, a fedaral mandated Strategic Stockpile that the oil companies have to maintain on US soil.
The UK used to have similar when we had the extensive Government Pipelines and Storage System (GPSS)
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Fuel companies had to bunker 5% of their sales for Govt emergency use. Probably still the case.
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Right, Bitten the bullet and fired up the ole spreadsheet, for a baseline to see if we can cut consumption.
4 bedroom bungalow, no cavity 1930's build, half early 1990s cavity build. New Double glazing, New Gas boiler,
jul 2021 to Jun 2022,
*Electric 4710.2 kwh
**Gas 15808.9 kwh
* had a very strange peak in Nov 21, much higher than Oct and dropped in Dec and Jan.
** Interior temp was set to 21. water 65c. Both coming down for the next winter, 19c for temp, 60 for water. lets see what that brings going forward. Going to add an av outside temp to the spreadsheet pretty chart as well.
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Was very cold in Nov 21. Dec and Jan v mild.
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A few weeks in November 2021 were also fairly grim on the Costa Blanca. Highs around 16C some days, lows in single figures, with heavy rain on several days.
This year heading out late September rather than October.
Rental accommodation costing more, but hopefully won’t be looking out at rain....March 2022 was the wettest since 1957 on the CB. Hope that’s not repeated.
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>> Was very cold in Nov 21. Dec and Jan v mild.
Not according to my source, Dec21 Jan22 & Feb22 were colder than Nov. (average air temp)
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Yeah my electricity consumption for Dec, Jan, Feb was considerably higher than Nov (631/622/510/381 respectively)
Last edited by: smokie on Tue 30 Aug 22 at 19:28
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Daughters have a 2 up 2 down end terrace which is currently unoccupied.
Mrs FC has been looking at its recent consumption remotely. Roughly £1.60 a day. Standing charge not included.
There should only be the the fridge freezer and a LED outside light (fired up with a photovoltaic sensor) which covers a communal car park and reimbursed via a discount on a residents upkeep charge.
On arrival and without the fridge/freezer running 35W was being consumed. Fire up the fridge and it raises to 449W and settles on 121W.
So the house was draining 35W but where from? Went round trying to ascertain the electricity draw. Switched them off one by one and this is what was achieved:
Trailing socket - LED TV on standby. 3 other mains adapters for NOW TV box, DVD player etc. + Router and associated box where the fibre enters the house - down to 15W so a 20W consumption.
Boiler on standby - down to 11W so 4W consumption
House alarm on standby - down to 6/7W so 4/5W consumption (readings fluctuating)
So everything is shut down, switched off and unplugged and its now sitting on 6/7W consumption (fluctuating).
A good look round revealed a warm empty plug in air freshener - down to 4/5W (fluctuating) so 2W consumption.
So whats drawing the last 4/5W I have no idea. The only thing left plugged in was the actual monitor. I didn't turn the consumer unit off as I wouldn't be able to read the monitor.
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>>So whats drawing the last 4/5W I have no idea
Wireless telephone?
Mains operated doorbell?
Modem?
Dimmer switch turned down not off?
Central heating control unit?
Most monitors can be run using a battery, try using it battery mode.
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Wireless telephone? Nope
Mains operated doorbell? Nope
Modem? Nope - that was all on the TV etc socket gang.
Dimmer switch turned down not off? None
Central heating control unit? Remote and only battery powered.
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So Martin Lewis has a new calculator on his website that lets you project your bills based on the new rates, the region that you live (as caps vary between regions) and your usage.
Just worked out my dad's!!
He is on a fixed rate that ends at end of Sept.
Under the fixed rate he is paying £172 per month
If he wasnt fixed just now, he would be paying £274 per month
From October, when the new rates kick in, and his fixed rate stops, his new monthly payment will be £515 !!!
Based on annual usage of 3770kw Electricity and 26859kw Gas
He's a 90 year old man that pretty much has heating on all year round (not necessarily always physically on depending on what his thermostat is set at). Combi boiler.
Jeez
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and my own figures
4267kw Electricity
15991kw Gas
Jumping from £209 current capped rate to £403 in October.
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£968 a month!
Cold showers and candle light from October!
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Not too bad 'ere: £85pm for leccy using Martin's new energy calculator. Bulk LPG tank for heating.
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I got the email from our supply; 2500 kwh for electricity, 8000 kwh for gas.
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Using the MSE calculator, and knowing my exact kWh consumption over the past several years, it shows a 56% increase from October 2022. From £780 pa ( I currently pay £90pcm and am £250 in credit) to £1220 pa.
Octopus Variable Rate tariff.
I’ve never bothered with the minutiae, but as I don’t feel the cold, and dress accordingly in the colder months, there’s never been any way I could further reduce my consumption.
One thing I’ve noticed is the huge increase in daily standing charges...Dec 2020 to currently. Electric 19.21p > 41.98p, Gas 16.8p > 27.22p. That riles me.
Thinking about this, it’s a very warm 1999 built stone detached built on a hillside with an E - W axis. Morning sun ( like today) streams through the front windows, then mid afternoon the rear, plus the 3 large velux in the rear single storey extension and almost full height windows, so the heat must be stored by the extra deep loft insulation which is why it rarely feels cold.
Energy consumption will be more than normal Feb & March as I don’t expect to be overseas in warmer climes. As per usual. But I’ll save on both apartment and car rental charges. And suncream.
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>> One thing I’ve noticed is the huge increase in daily standing charges...Dec 2020 to currently.
>> Electric 19.21p > 41.98p, Gas 16.8p > 27.22p. That riles me.
A lot of that is to do with all your mates who signed up to cheap fixed deals, then had to be bailed out when the unrealistic business model failed.
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I know of two people who signed up with small energy suppliers I’d never heard of. They ceased trading....I moved to Octopus 01/20 when I was offered a one off incentive payment, and prior to that was with OVO for several years.
I’m happy with their easy to understand website and general communication re submitting readings. Don’t anticipate leaving Octopus anytime soon.
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"A lot of that is to do with all your mates who signed up to cheap fixed deals, then had to be bailed out when the unrealistic business model failed."
Also I believe the FIT (or equivalent) payments to microgenerators (solar panels etc) come from the standing charge.
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>> Also I believe the FIT (or equivalent) payments to microgenerators (solar panels etc) come from
>> the standing charge.
My objection to the original very generous feed in tariff was that it paid money out to people who were sufficiently well off to own their own roof at the expense of those who did not, including the poorest on pre-pay.
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Same for the increase in the standing charge increase. Ofgem claim it's not equalise the benefit and obligation to share the costs of the grid. I think it should be on the per kwh charge, the standing charge should be as low as possible.
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The standing charge increase is mainly down to the cost of bailing out customers of failed energy companies who did fixed price deals without covering their obligations.
Whether the cost should fall on the customers whose suppliers failed, as part of the per unit charge, or the standing charges is debatable.
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>>
>> Whether the cost should fall on the customers whose suppliers failed, as part of the
>> per unit charge, or the standing charges is debatable.
>>
The cost should fall on the unsecured creditors. It does in normal industry.
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The unsecured creditors of the energy suppliers are the generators + possibly HMRC + other suppliers etc.
The cost in the standing charge relates to the commitment to provide customers with a continuing supply on the contractual terms they had signed up to.
New suppliers would not take on loss making customer contracts without compensation.
The alternative would be for customers whose supplier had gone bust to immediately sign up to a new supplier contract probably at the current price cap. Or fund the compensation scheme through general taxation.
Whether the costs of guaranteeing customer fixed price contracts should absorbed by all customers through the standing charge, or those customers whose suppliers had failed should simply revert immediately to new terms is debatable.
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>>New suppliers would not take on loss making customer contracts without compensation.
I didn't think that new suppliers took on the fixed rate loss making contracts from failed suppliers. They put them on their generally available tariffs.
If the generally available tariffs were loss making then that a failure of the regulator.
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They did take on customers of failed companies on their existing fixed price deals - I was one of them. When it expired I was left in the same position as everyone else - the price cap was the best (least worst) deal in town.
I agree it was a regulation failure - they assumed that supplier failures would be infrequent in a fairly stable market. The principle that individual affected customers should not pay the price of corporate failure seemed reasonable.
Allowing suppliers to trade using fixed prices with variable input costs (energy generation) was always a risk. Had the regulator had insisted they cover their risk with forward energy contracts, the risk would simply go back up the chain to the electricity and gas suppliers.
Given that many/most customers were on fixed price deals for up to 3 years ahead, as energy costs rose a loss would crystallise somewhere in the supply chain from oil/gas well through to end users.
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I eventually heard a caller into one of the daytime radio shows say something that I've been pondering since this started..... what will the energy companies do when 10's of thousands (if not more) of UK customers can't pay their monthly bills because they just don't have the income? I don't think they will be able to cut these people off en-mass, the presenter had no answer and in fact it's not something I've heard mentioned but it will be an issue (no just the people threatening not to pay out of principal).
My daughter and partner have a three year old and are on a low income (renting) but just not enough to claim any support... they, like my wife, are still paying BACK the working credit they received during covid which they were encouraged to claim by the Govt.
If things are as bad as reported then I really don't know how they will cope apart with help from us.
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>> I don't think they will be able to cut these people
>> off en-mass, the presenter had no answer and in fact it's not something I've heard
>> mentioned but it will be an issue (no just the people threatening not to pay
>> out of principal).
Disconnections are vanishingly rare these days. The usual route, even if it requires a warrant and forced entry, is to fit a prepayment meter. This will charge the current rate plus so much towards the arrears. The result though is that the customer self disconnects because they cannot afford the top ups.
There is help for the most egregious hardship via a Household Support Fund administered by the top-tier local Council but frankly it's a sticking plaster.
>> My daughter and partner have a three year old and are on a low income
>> (renting) but just not enough to claim any support... they, like my wife, are still
>> paying BACK the working credit they received during covid which they were encouraged to claim
>> by the Govt.
Was this Working Tax Credit or Universal Credit?
If the latter there's a big problem where, at the height of the pandemic, claims were accepted without the usual evidential hoop jumping. A scheme called 'Trust and Protect'.
DWP have had a team going over those cases and attempting to sort out evidence retrospectively. They've been heavy handed and advisor forums like Rightsnet are full of cases where they've withdrawn awards from the start with zero regard for the requirements of the Claims and Payments Regulations. Anybody caught that way should seek advice.
Working Tax/Child Tax is a bit better but overpayment is 'baked in' to the system that bases awards on a previous year and then reviews them at the end of the following year.
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>> I eventually heard a caller into one of the daytime radio shows say something that
>> I've been pondering since this started..... what will the energy companies do when 10's of
>> thousands (if not more) of UK customers can't pay their monthly bills because they just
>> don't have the income?
Some sort of taxpayer backed loan/grant i would think.
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What is so annoying about this is that it’s an effective way of transferring wealth from us to people that own the gas and oil.
After all, the cost of getting it out of the ground hasn’t gone up massively since all this began.
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Effectively those who can pay because they have a good job, have been thrifty, or have saved their money or been lucky enough to have inherited some wealth will have topay for those who are unlucky, are poorly paid, are unable to work, won’t work or have sent every penny they have earnt.
That how it works.
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Yesterday I turned every appliance off.
Then I switched on one high power item on. Let it run for a few minutes then unplugged it.
I noticed that the smart meter monitor instantly registered the increase in usage, but took about a minute to register that the device had been switched off (properly off, plug out).
Is this normal - is it just a lag from the meter to the the monitor or is the meter registering usage in error?
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AFAIK they poll and update every so often, it isn't a live stream of data. so it would just depend where in the lag you turned it on and off as to how long the update takes. But a minute sounds a long time.
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>>But a minute sounds a long time.
>>
Perhaps it's a watched pot sort of thing. I'll time it next time.
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It looks like the policy is to force us all to have a loan and pay it back over ten years or so. What if I don’t want a loan? Is this the new conservative to make us all debtors?
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It'll be like being a student :/
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I don't think it is remotely clear what is planned - personal loans, guaranteed by Treasury, what about those incapable of paying back, what period, for how long etc etc etc. Or will the price be capped by direct payments to the energy companies.
As a short term expedient (eg: 3-6 months) it may be workable. If high prices become embedded for years the reality is that society will have to suck it up - albeit with something sensible for those who are very vulnerable.
It means the standard of living for all will fall and businesses will struggle.
Borrowing more is not a long term solution either for countries or individuals. It burdens future generations with our reluctance to face reality, borrowing money becomes more difficult and more expensive, ultimately the banks call in loans and cancel your credit card.
None of this is good - but prtending there is a no pain fix is pure fantasy.
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>> and businesses will struggle.
Yes.
Looking at a small manufacturer today. They're in a small industrial unit. You know the type, brick first half, block second half covered by a metal coat which forms the roof.
The bottom half is storage and workshop. The top half is half offices and lighter storage.
This time last year their energy bill was £3k per month. It's now £15k per month. Their profits were £10k per month last year. You can see where this is going.
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>>
>> Borrowing more is not a long term solution either for countries or individuals. It burdens
>> future generations with our reluctance to face reality, borrowing money becomes more difficult and more
>> expensive, ultimately the banks call in loans and cancel your credit card.
>>
....I think this is a little simplistic. Whilst borrowing and "burdening" future generations might be somewhat unpalatable, if it is a way of keeping businesses alive and the wheels of industry turning, it is also a way of retaining a way of life and future employment prospects for the coming generations.
If someone can come up with a solution which doesn't involve subsidies in some form in the interim, then I'm quite happy to hear and consider it, but at the moment, mortgaging our current into the future looks like it might be the only viable solution.
(The order of magnitude of the cost increase in energy prices is inevitably going to see a large number of businesses got to the wall in pretty short order - concomitant price rises against a population suffering large decreases in disposable income will be disastrous for them. There is, however, a number of ways of skinning the cat. My concern is that this government will once again use it as a way of lining a small proportion of the population's pockets).
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>> If someone can come up with a solution which doesn't involve subsidies in some form
>> in the interim, then I'm quite happy to hear and consider it, but at the
>> moment, mortgaging our current into the future looks like it might be the only viable
>> solution.
It's what the country had to do during the war and we recovered relatively quickly. In a real emergency you have to do what is required now and worry about the future when it comes.
Last edited by: VxFan on Wed 7 Sep 22 at 10:38
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>> It's what the country had to do during the war and we recovered relatively quickly.
>> In a real emergency you have to do what is required now and worry about
>> the future when it comes.
Yeah, essentially with covid aftermath, global supply / energy disruption and the war (and make no mistake we are in a proxy war) it calls for extraordinary measures meaning building a large debt. Most of us as post war / baby boomers never had it so good, so its recoverable.
The downside is of course the rush to more diverse home energy sources inevitably means global warming will take a back seat.
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>> It's what the country had to do during the war and we recovered relatively quickly.
>> In a real emergency you have to do what is required now and worry about
>> the future when it comes.
After the war the the massive debt we had incurred was steadily paid back on the back of the economic boom the UK enjoyed over many decades.
I’m not sure the UK is the edge of an economic boom even whatever crackpot economic theory Truss chooses to endorse.
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>> It'll be like being a student :/
>>
Some of us have already regressed to a similar state.
Although slightly less Double Diamond spilt on the floor
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I have some problems with handing out £000s to people who can afford to pay and at the other end of the scale, still have people struggling to pay the new £2500 estimate.
I am retired, comfortably off and I have 2 sons who have good 6 figure household incomes - we can all afford our bills and yet we will get subsidies.
Meanwhile some pensioners/ disabled / poor families will still have 25% of their pension / benefits to pay the electricity & gas.
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Indeed, benefits need to be means tested, its a process we cant ignore any longer. I bet they will be paying me my winter fuel allowance again this year.
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They probably will, I don't think any party fancies being ditched at the next election. Least of all the Conservative party, there'd uproar over it.
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I give my winter fuel payment to the local village school (they did a great job when my 3 boys were there (40 years ago) and the local Salvation Army who help the very poorest in my area.
The only handout from Government I have needed was a Student grants 58 years ago - full grant of £240 per year - the student grants were the best investment the Government made in our family.
Does not sound a lot today but it was needed to pay my way, and 2 brothers, through University - the Government got back a huge return of their average £1,000 investment in each of our education when only 5% of school leavers went to University.
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The problem with means testing energy subsidy payments is the time it would take. There is no easy way to do it. Subsidising energy bills is quick and straightforward and no one falls through the net but it is untargeted and we all benefit whether we need it or not.
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The simple solution is to provide support through energy bills by capping the costs of gas and electricity up to a modest level of usage - say 60% of the average bill.
This should mean that all households have access to subsidised energy to meet basic needs.
Consumption above that levels would be at market rates. This would impact those with larger houses and the more profligate.
This would be quick and generally fair to implement. There will always be exceptions - give local authorities a small top up fund to decide how to deal with issues in heir local community.
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Living in the Shetlands and living in the South of England is very different.
Shetlands - longer wetter & colder winters - can be 10C difference to South England in summer & winter. 18 hours darkness mid-winter.
No mains gas ..................... much bigger fuel bills, more expensive food and other household expenses.
How can you differentiate their need to buy more fuel just to have a reasonably warm home?
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There is a trade off between speed, cost and complexity. Possibly a different rate depending on:
- regional differences reflecting climate variations
- those able to use open fires
- the number and age of people in a household
- detached, semi, terraced, apartment have different space heating needs
- health status of residents - elderly and disabled need more help
- number of folk in a care home
- working status of the occupants - on UC, pensioner, income levels, number of wage earners
- etc etc etc
All these could be embedded in calculation of a support rate. So another choice - delay 6 months to work it all out (there will probably still be anomalies) or give everyone the max and accept that it will cost several times more than necessary or sensible.
IMHO - speed and simplicity to get it 80-90% right and a fair cost to society is preferred.
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No mention of heating oil costs, as far as I'm aware. After a dip during covid, the price has been hovering around £1 a litre for the last few months- traditionally a time when it's cheaper. Gawd knows how much it's going to increase to once the usual winter price increase arrives.
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Energy bills - Volume 2 Smart meter -get refunds? - bathtub tom
