Non-motoring > Taiwan Miscellaneous
Thread Author: Fullchat Replies: 17

 Taiwan - Fullchat
So how does the team think this is going to pan out?

Chinese have been rattling their sabres for a long while in the South China Sea.

Extremely concerning times.
 Taiwan - zippy
I don't think that we have the stomach or capability for an all out war with China.

I also think that we have been utterly idiotic in enabling China to get so powerful and that includes sending high tech manufacturing of consumer electronics there to save a few £, and therefore allowing their economy to grow exponentially and at the same time allowing Chinese researchers and academics to infiltrate many of our universities so that they can report our latest innovations back home.

Of course if we didn't have access to a cheap manufacturing base such as China then our standard of living would not be as high as it currently is.

Perhaps investments would have been better in Africa countries and / or other Asian countries to spread the risk a little. With African countries a comprehensive education system would have needed to have been implemented first.
 Taiwan - Terry
A very brief history of Taiwan:

- came under full Chinese control in 17th Century
- gave up the island to Japan in 1895 after losing the Sino-Chinese war
- control reverted to China in 1945 after WW2 - United Nations agreement

Taiwan has been recognised by only 13 of 193 countries in the United Nations including economic and military giants such as Belize, Guatemala, Holy See, St Lucia, St Kitts etc.

Whether China should seek to impose their will on a bit of the world which otherwise seems to operate successfully as an independent democracy is questionable, but Chinas claim to sovereignty is not without substance.

The failure to resolve the issue one way or the other over several decades, and that most of the world has not formally recognised Taiwan evidences a sort of tacit acceptance of the ambiguity.
 Taiwan - Zero
If Taiwan falls, messily, 1/2 the worlds supply of chips - and we aint talking the fish variety - will dry up.

If Taiwan falls - messily - North Korea will have a pop at South Korea. The other half of the worlds chips dry up.

The west? we would have had our chips.
 Taiwan - Zero
I note now that

China is halting co-operation with the US in several key areas including climate change, military talks and efforts to combat international crime.


I'm not sure anyone will notice. In fact without Chinas obfuscation and obstruction on these matters they might even improve.
 Taiwan - zippy
>>
>> The west? we would have had our chips.
>>

Which is another good reason to bring manufacturing back home.
 Taiwan - sooty123
I would think sabre rattling and economic impact will be the order of the day. Very little chance of china successfully invading taiwan.
 Taiwan - Zero
>> I would think sabre rattling and economic impact will be the order of the day.
>> Very little chance of china successfully invading taiwan.

Depends on your criteria of success. Could they invade Taiwan, quickly take control, and suppress the people? Yes very easily indeed.

Could they do it without serious global economic sanctions? probably not. A temporary* setback.

Could they do it cleanly without immediate serious damage to the infrastructure and economy of Taiwan? No. Hmmm BIG Problem, China trades with and relies heavily on stuff produced/developed in Taiwan.

Which is why the Chinese plan is to infiltrate from within, influence, try and get a handle on internal power - do a Hong Kong. The other political party there is pro China. Which is why they are furious with Nancy, or anyone else western visiting and influencing.

*The Chinese concept of temporary. China is a very old, one of the oldest "civilisations" Plans there are long term. Very long term. They are thinking 50, 100, 150 years ahead. A concept Western minds and powers dont grapple with.



Last edited by: Zero on Sun 7 Aug 22 at 09:14
 Taiwan - sooty123
. Could they invade Taiwan, quickly take control, and suppress
>> the people? Yes very easily indeed.
>>
>>
>>
>>

You'll want to double check that assumption.
 Taiwan - Zero
>> . Could they invade Taiwan, quickly take control, and suppress
>> >> the people? Yes very easily indeed.
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>>
>> You'll want to double check that assumption.

You'll need to explain why thats not possible. The capabilities of the PLA seriously dwarf those of the ROC forces. Abilities of the ROC forces to inflict damage on Chinese mainland? limited. Fixed ROC defences and bunkers? Military history will show you they have, nearly always, proved useless. American intervention? I can assure you the US submarine patrol sodded off somewhere safe during the recent war games. A well planned surprise attack will ensure the US has no chance of getting in the way. Cruise missile strike? Nope the US position is all bluster. And they admit they are a: surprised and b: impressed by the forces the PLA have mustered in these war games

So why cant the PLA take Taiwan quickly?
 Taiwan - sooty123
Various reasons; the distance involved is large logistically speaking. You'd need something similar to d day in size. China hasn't the logistics fleet to support such an invasion fleet. And then protect as you go on.

The advantage of defending an island is a considerable advantage that is difficult to overcome.

Something that size is years in planning and months in organising, there is no surprise attack. Its not possible. It's simply too large.

The Chinese army on paper may well dwarf that of Taiwan, but as we've seen in Russia that doesn't matter. Its how you get them there and then support them. The vast amount of equipment you'd need to supply and keep any invasion force going is an issue even in china.

Geography, look at any suitable invasion beaches. It won't take long.

China has 2 generations of military that has no operational experience at all. Let alone a 1 million+ man combined arms invasion that no one has seen since d day.

Taiwan's military has had one job for about 70 years. They've also little experience, but you tend to need less when on the defence, in many ways its easier to defend than master all arms invasions.

Taiwan also has many listening stations just off the coast of china , islands they never gave/gave up to china. All full of comms and intelligence gathering equipment.

The quality of many of their troops are questionable, mainly filling posts in static units.

Having a large static conscription army and having one that fully support an expeditionary function are two very different things.

Plus other stuff I've probably forgotten from a variety of sources.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Sun 7 Aug 22 at 09:55
 Taiwan - sooty123
Probably missed the edit, that's not to say they wouldn't be large amounts of damage but that's not the same as owning the land of the enemy. That hasn't changed in centuries, you plant your flag in the 'centre' of government/society.
They could possibly manage some form of naval blockade.

Lots of the stuff online is fantasy fleets from people who've read to much tom clancy. Clue is if they mainly waffle on about missile range and the such like. Most of the tough stuff is either too complex for them or they think it's unimportant still so dismiss it. Easier for them to compare weapons range and the such like.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Sun 7 Aug 22 at 10:06
 Taiwan - Zero

>> Lots of the stuff online is fantasy fleets from people who've read to much tom
>> clancy.

True Clancy got fanciful, but Red Storm Rising, has many parallels that have appeared in the Ukraine war. Mind you mostly because the book appeared in the mid 80s, based on late 70s Russian military thinking, and they haven't moved on one iota from that.

I bet Putin is now urging China to open a "second front" like Stalin in WW2. If I was him I wouldn't trust the Chinese one inch, they probably think he is Yìzhì bóruò . Feeble Minded and open for manipulation.
 Taiwan - Terry
Taiwan has ~170,000 in the army + 288 fighter jets - not a trivial opposition.

As demonstrated in Ukraine, if defenders are (a) motivated and (b) have adequate supplies of ammunitions and replacement weaponry, they would be difficult to overcome on the ground.

They would be defending home territory from established defensive positions - China would suffer material losses over a possibly long drawn out conflict.
 Taiwan - Zero

>> They would be defending home territory from established defensive positions - China would suffer material
>> losses over a possibly long drawn out conflict.

Just like the Maginot line, The Atlantic Wall, Belgiums Fort Eben-Emael, Singapore. Hadians wall,

Fixed defences are great, ideal for keeping your enemy in one place and in a false sense of safety.

Ukraine is large. Big distances Population centres well spread apart. Taiwan is small, heavily populated, military manoeuvring impossible, attack and invasion by a force with little regard for human life means large population losses, losses that would make any government quickly capitulate.

But as I said, invasion like that is unlikely, it would be a useless strategic victory. Give it 50 years (short term Chinese planning) and they will have taken control quasi politically.
 Taiwan - Zero

>> Plus other stuff I've probably forgotten from a variety of sources.

Which is why I split my thesis into two scenarios. The quick easy winning one with maximum collateral damage is currently easily doable, but with undesirable consequences for the Chinese

As for listening posts, they are very close to the Chinese mainland, have you considered why they haven't been consumed by them? Pattons First US Army group is a classic example of why you cant rely on fixed SIGINT
 Taiwan - sooty123
Rely, I'm not sure they do. I don't think i suggested that either?

I can't say i agree with your idea that there is any quick, easy invasion. But let's hope no one has to find out that out, no one wants that.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Sun 7 Aug 22 at 10:23
 Taiwan - zippy
My guess is that in the medium term, China will look to take the islands close to their shores (Great Kinmen and Matsu).

To invade Taiwan the PLA have to cross 100 miles of water. That's 6 hours by ship. I suspect Taiwan have lots and lots of Harpoon type missiles which would do considerable damage to an invading fleet.
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