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Continuing discussion.
Last edited by: VxFan on Fri 23 Sep 22 at 10:57
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news.sky.com/story/nato-to-significantly-increase-forces-on-high-alert-to-over-300-000-from-40-000-amid-russia-threat-12641191
That's a big increase, i find it hard to believe without a big increase in budgets what with all manner of domestic issues, I'll believe it when i see it.
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NATO has well over 3 million personnel.
Is a change in battle readiness more than a monster recruiting effort.
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>> Is a change in battle readiness more than a monster recruiting effort.
>>
It's both recruiting and training along with large increase in supplies of equipment and munitions. All of which cost lots of money.
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Its two things.
belief that there is an existential threat to a Nato country
A show of force to warn against such threat.
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About time for EU/NATO/Japan to put massive import duties on goods from countries buying Russian oil & gas (once EU gets its finger out of its bum and does the same).
While India/China/eEU are gobbling up Russian oil the intended crippling of Russia's economy isn't quite working out.
Last edited by: Lygonos on Mon 27 Jun 22 at 16:42
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It is reported Russian oil revenues have INCREASED since the invasion of Ukraine - volumes down but prices up on sales to India, China etc.
This could easily persuade Putin to prolong the war - it's good for bizness.
Suggesting import duties are imposed on goods from those countries which are still buying Russian oil is, of course, entirely principled.
In four months time, as winter sets, in much of Europe could be facing shortages of energy and consumer goods, with inflation even higher due to import duties and price increases on goods imported from China and India.
Being pragmatic, rather than principled, for how long will Europe continue to unreservedly support Ukraine vs urgently seeking a resolution to "get back to normal". This won't have escaped Putin!
All very sad - but the bully may well get much of what he wants.
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The pressure will come when Russia has taken control of the Donbas region, which now looks inevitable and Putin announces that having liberated it from “Right wing terrorist and Nazi sympathisers” he would consider a cease fire. Putin’s long term aim of course would of course be to build up the strength of his military and repeat the whole process some time in the future.
Would the West turn down such an offer of a cease fire? I think it will be very difficult for it to maintain a united front and refuse to consider such an offer considering the massive military and economic cost it is currently incurring.
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>> sympathisers” he would consider a cease fire. Putin’s long term aim of course would of
>> course be to build up the strength of his military and repeat the whole process
>> some time in the future.
His long term aim is in tatters. The back of his land army is broken, the black sea navy ineffective, the Western region Airforce seen to be useless, senior command staff dead, or sacked, and Nato reinvigorated and expanded.
Great aim. Fabulous plan. Well executed.
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Unfortunately, if he is backed in to a corner, he may feel that he has nothing to lose, especially given concerns about his health.
So expect more indiscriminate bombing with nastier and nastier weapons.
It is a real shame that Ukraine hasn't hit really valuable* targets in Russia to give them a really blood y nose - but of course that could escalate matters as well.
*the new multi-billion bridge to the Crimea would be a good start, but there has got to be more targets like airports, other bridges, railway lines etc.
Do they have long range missiles?
Last edited by: zippy on Tue 28 Jun 22 at 12:48
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He still has Belarus to be forced to "take one for the team."
And Hungary's leader is obviously a stooge.
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>> He still has Belarus to be forced to "take one for the team."
I get the feeling Alexander Lukashenko might get a little windy
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> And Hungary's leader is obviously a stooge.
If there is one bright spot about being out the EU - its that ^^^ lot.
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>> Do they have long range missiles?
Not yet, medium range missiles (3-500km) ones on the way, with strict orders that mainland ussian targets are not allowed.
I guess Crimea and all of the Donbas is not officially Russian
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>> Do they have long range missiles?
>>
>>
They have missiles that can hit into Russia and have used them. An oil refinery and a couple of Russian airbases, they don't use them much though.
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>> they don't use them much though.
>>
Why not?
Is it a fear of escalation?
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> Why not?
>>
>> Is it a fear of escalation?
>>
Possibly and likely they have few that they can reasonably guarantee are accurate. The last thing need is one hitting a russian school.
They are pretty old, from the 70s.
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>>
>>
>> Great aim. Fabulous plan. Well executed.
>>
So if Putin offers a ceasefire after successfully seizing the Donbas ( the Russians have nearly achieved this) what will be the response of the West. My view is that there will be significant pressure from the US and some European countries for Ukraine to accept the status quo and effectively cede the Donbas to Russia.
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>> So if Putin offers a ceasefire after successfully seizing the Donbas ( the Russians have
>> nearly achieved this) what will be the response of the West. My view is that
>> there will be significant pressure from the US and some European countries for Ukraine to
>> accept the status quo and effectively cede the Donbas to Russia.
Of course they will, but just the Donbas wasnt Putins ultimate goal. He'll have a hostile population to contain, A nato partner on his doorstop, all with a crippled army at his disposal.
Fab. There is no victory for Putin, under any outcome of this. As soon as the assault on Kiev failed he was b ered
Last edited by: VxFan on Wed 29 Jun 22 at 11:33
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The Russians might not have won their original war aims but Ukraine and the West will have lost and Putin survives to have another go in seven years time when he has rebuilt his army.
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and Putin survives to have another go in seven years time when
>> he has rebuilt his army.
>>
Why seven years or at all? The ukrainians get to rebuild as well.
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Crimea
The Donbas
Another chunk of Ukraine ????
If you don’t care about the cost and human suffering which Putin patently doesn’t he’s winning.
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>> Crimea
>> The Donbas
>> Another chunk of Ukraine ????
Wars don't really happen on the basis on nice year gaps.
>> If you don’t care about the cost and human suffering which Putin patently doesn’t he’s
>> winning.
No idea who this is aimed at.
Last edited by: VxFan on Wed 29 Jun 22 at 11:33
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It’s badly worded. I’ll try again
If you are a dictator like Putin who doesn’t count the financial cost of the war and the human suffering he is causing but simply judges the result on territory acquired then he is winning.
By The way I didn’t mean to imply that it will be exactly seven years until he attempts another territorial war, only that another such land grab is inevitable once his military capability has been restored.
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If you are a dictator like Putin who doesn’t count the financial cost of the
>> war and the human suffering he is causing but simply judges the result on territory
>> acquired then he is winning.
>>
>> By The way I didn’t mean to imply that it will be exactly seven years
>> until he attempts another territorial war, only that another such land grab is inevitable once
>> his military capability has been restored.
>
I'd disagree with both those statements.
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I guess you would have to ask Putin to ascertain if the first was correct and time will reveal whether the second is. I’ll make a diary now for 2029 to review.
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>> I guess you would have to ask Putin to ascertain if the first was correct
>> and time will reveal whether the second is. I’ll make a diary now for 2029
>> to review.
I think you have missed and continue to miss several important points.
Putin wont be in power in 7 years, he probably wont even be alive.
The window for a cheap land grab closed the moment he failed, it wont be open again for another 30 years.
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>> The Russians might not have won their original war aims but Ukraine and the West
>> will have lost and Putin survives to have another go in seven years time when
>> he has rebuilt his army.
He'll not be there in 7 years time. The west hasn't lost, you cant underestimate the long term positive effects - no reliance on Russian energy, Two new capable members in Nato (believe me you want the Finns on board) and Nato has a renewed mandate.
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Two new capable members
>> in Nato (believe me you want the Finns on board) and Nato has a renewed
>> mandate.
>>
www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20220622-with-an-eye-on-re-election-turkey-s-erdogan-risks-the-ire-of-western-partners
If they get in.
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>> So if Putin offers a ceasefire after successfully seizing the Donbas ( the Russians have
>> nearly achieved this) what will be the response of the West. My view is that
>> there will be significant pressure from the US and some European countries for Ukraine to
>> accept the status quo and effectively cede the Donbas to Russia.
>>
A great shame if that is the case. It basically tells a bully that it's OK to attack another country and effectively take territory.
Obviously this has been done before (e.g. Argentina with the Falklands, Israeli land grabs in Palestine, China with Tibet, China ignoring the Hong Kong agreements and the UK, Belgium, Netherlands, Italy, Spain, Portugal etc. countless times in the past) and I wonder how closely China are monitoring the situation re Taiwan?
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From the PoV of NATO and the west the risk is of escalation. If for example the current issue with Latvia blocking access to Kaliningrad prompts Russian action then it could very quickly become a direct Russia NATO conflict.
Russia's lack of options in that scenario could see Nukes being chucked in short order.
The pressure will be for a pragmatic solution where there is a cease fire and a peace keeping force with Donbas de facto under Russian control. Putin has the off ramp of a 'victory' for domestic consumption. The west, albeit shaken from their post cold war torpor, can return to normal or at least new normal.
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I would agree but realistically the alternative would be to commit to a war without end or at least lasting years and costing the West untold billions both in direct military support and the hit to Western economies. A hard sell.
In the real world what do you think is more likely or perhaps you have another scenario as to how the war might end if Putin continues in power.
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Putin will not want to retreat and acknowledge defeat. The West may continue supplying ever more effective weapons to Ukraine but fear of escalation probably means no direct involvement.
By the end of this year continued support of Ukraine and sanctions will come at an ever higher economic and political cost. The West will want a settlement.
The best outcome for Ukraine and the West is that Putin feels able to sell as a victory Russian control of Donbas, Crimea and Mariupol coast joining Russia with Crimea. A somewhat pyrrhic victory - the place now seems a wasteland bereft of most people, business, infrastructure etc.
Expect to see "Ukraine" fast tracked to EU membership and hosting NATO troops and exercises even if they do not join - this may be a condition of "peace".
With Finland, Sweden and Ukraine (largely) off the Putin agenda due to NATO relationships, Russian ambitions may be stalled for several years. Hopefully by then Putin will no longer an issue.
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>> Expect to see "Ukraine" fast tracked to EU membership and hosting NATO troops and exercises
>> even if they do not join - this may be a condition of "peace".
I suspect the condition would be the other way with Ukraine off NATO's agenda.
If NATO had been explicit that any Membership would be a long and difficult haul then I suspect we'd not be where we are now.
Consider the position if the Cold War had been different and we'd ended up with most of Western Europe but not the UK in the Warsaw Pact.
Ireland starts to flirt with WP membership...
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>> Consider the position if the Cold War had been different and we'd ended up with
>> most of Western Europe but not the UK in the Warsaw Pact.
>>
>> Ireland starts to flirt with WP membership...
It would only have been different if Germany had won the war, and Yes Ireland would have been an Ally of Germany for sure.
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>> It would only have been different if Germany had won the war
I wasn't trying to construct an alternative factual argument as to HOW Ireland might have been potentially a member of a defence treaty opposed to NATO; just the possibility it might have been.
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>> >> It would only have been different if Germany had won the war
>>
>> I wasn't trying to construct an alternative factual argument as to HOW Ireland might have
>> been potentially a member of a defence treaty opposed to NATO; just the possibility it
>> might have been.
It was a ridiculous premise, utterly dependent on a different WW2 outcome,
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If NATO had been explicit that any Membership would be a long and difficult haul
>> then I suspect we'd not be where we are now.
Please explain.
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Isn't Putin is trying now to munch along the Black Sea shore to reach Moldova?
Or will NATO grade artillery make that a no-go?
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>> Isn't Putin is trying now to munch along the Black Sea shore to reach Moldova?
>>
>> Or will NATO grade artillery make that a no-go?
He needs to take Odessa. If he gets close I think Nato will intercede.
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If NATO intercede on Ukrainian territory it will be seen by Putin as an explicit attack on Russia. So I expect NATO support to be limited to (possibly) ever more sophisticated weapons.
These are quite capable of taking out shipping at a range of hundreds of miles.
Putin may have a much longer term goal of access from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean which threatens Turkey - possibly why Erdogan is somewhat in appeasement mode.
But Putin will be very aware that NATO equipment (and I suspect personnel) are far superior to his. Increased troop deployment on the eastern border of NATO may dissuade him from attack.
There is still speculation about Putin health. Were he in good order he may be expected to demonstrate this - ride a horse, climb a mountain, shoot a bear etc as in the past. Limited current images show a man who is evidently unwell. Hopefully terminally!
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Putin may have a much longer term goal of access from the Black Sea to
>> the Mediterranean which threatens Turkey - possibly why Erdogan is somewhat in appeasement mode.
Very unlikely the Russians could force access to the Med. The turks have closed it to military vessels I believe.
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There is a part of Moldova called Transnistria, which is an unrecognised breakaway state that already has a Russian military presence.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria
Moldova isn't a NATO member, so article 5 doesn't come into the equation.
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Informative interview with somebody from Royal United Services Institute, about 40 minutes in to this programme -
www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m0018t27/bbc-news-bbc-news-at-9-30062022
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Another point of view
Ex-Formula One boss Bernie Ecclestone has described Vladimir Putin as a "first-class person" who is doing something he believes is right for Russia.
The two men have known each other for several years, and reportedly became friends after Russia was first given the opportunity to host an F1 Grand Prix in 2014.
Asked on ITV's Good Morning Britain if he still regards Putin as a friend, Ecclestone says: "I'd still take a bullet for him."
The 91-year-old, who was chief executive of F1 until 2017, went on to say he thought the war could have been avoided if Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had taken different actions, commenting on how Zelensky used to be a comedian.
"I think he seems as if he wants to continue that profession," Ecclestone says, "because I think if he'd have thought about things, he would have definitely made a big enough effort to speak to Mr Putin, who is a sensible person and would have listened to him, and could have probably done something about it."
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>> Asked on ITV's Good Morning Britain if he still regards Putin as a friend, Ecclestone
>> says: "I'd still take a bullet for him."
Lets hope someone obliges.
Might be Lewis Hamilton after he also commented about Nelson Piquets "N-Word" podcast
Ecclestone said he was "surprised Lewis hasn't just brushed it aside,
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Another reason why billionaires should not exist.
Ecclestone is the commercial equivalent of Boris Johnson, the highest compliment I can pay him. Possibly even more like Trump although he seems a bit brighter - nothing matters but the deal, and he has used half-truths, lies, and coercion to get what he wants.
Moseley sold him 100 years of commercial rights to F1 for about £200m IIRC, practically a give away.
Obviously he's reached an age and position where he can say and do whatever he likes.
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It is strange isn’t it how people can take such what seems such completely perverse view of a situation. I assume he really believes what he says, much as Trump’s followers really believe he won the election. What people want to believe simply overpowers the evidence of their own eyes and rational thought.
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>> Asked on ITV's Good Morning Britain if he still regards Putin as a friend, Ecclestone
>> says: "I'd still take a bullet for him."
>>
...I bet Vlad didn't reciprocate....
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Bernie has also been quite complimentary about Adolf Hitler in the past.
When you think about it though, all three of them are short 'arrises so it could be a case of collective Short Man Syndrome.
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>> Bernie has also been quite complimentary about Adolf Hitler in the past.
Well he was friends with Max Mosely
>> When you think about it though, all three of them are short 'arrises so it
>> could be a case of collective Short Man Syndrome.
Yeah, how many 6'.2" Tyrants, dictators or despots in history
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I knew one but he was our Geography master, not History. Was also fond of lobbing missiles at anyone he thought wasn't paying him enough attention.
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Peter the Great, idi Amin?
Most tyrants and dictators have in fact been around average height for the age they lived in.
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And our own worst ever tyrant, Henry VIII was over 6 feet.
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The really successful ones are tho
Kim Il-Sung 5’7/175 cm
Adolf Hitler 5’7/175 cm
Josip Broz Tito 5’6/170 cm
Kim Jong-Un 5’6/170 cm
Benito Mussolini 5,5/169 cm
Josef Stalin 5’4/165 cm
Vladimir Lenin 5’4/165 cm
Emperor Hirohito 5’4/165 cm
Francisco Franco 5’3/163 cm
Kim Jong-Il 5’3/160 cm>>
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I always thought stalin was much taller than that.
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>> I always thought stalin was much taller than that.
>>
He wore built up shoes.
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The most successful tyrants of all time, Genghis Khan was described by his conspirators as tall.
Julius Caesar, perpetrator of one of Europe’s greatest genocides was a tall man. On the other hand Churchill was shorter than Hitler.
I don’t think the short man syndrome thesis has legs, at least not long ones.
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>> The most successful tyrants of all time, Genghis Khan was described by his conspirators as
>> tall.
Well they would wouldn't they. "Hey Geng, you short rse". was not a phrase guaranteeing you lifetime longevity.
>> Julius Caesar, perpetrator of one of Europe’s greatest genocides was a tall man.
5' 7" apparently.
Napoleon - 5' 5"
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The Pentagon has received proposals from 800 US companies to use Ukraine as a testbed for 1300 items of new military kit in development.
I wonder what tasty stuff is in that lot (that they won't get)?
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I see the Russians are now reduced to recruiting from prisons, such are the losses the wagner group have suffered.
The American long range missiles seem to be having an impact, particularly on Russian supply and ammunition stores. I would expect Russia's advantage in artillery to be reduced.
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>I see the Russians are now reduced to recruiting from prisons,..
About a month ago they started offering folks found 'guilty' of an offence a choice of prison or a reduced term in the army.
I guess the take-up must have been lower than they expected.
On another note - the Ruskies have shipped missile systems into southern Belarus and overnight on Sunday were flying an A-50 (AWACS) up and down the Belarus border with (as yet unidentified) fighter aircraft.
This is after Zelensky told his Chief of Defence to do whatever is necessary to kick Russian forces out of south Ukraine.
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>The American long range missiles seem to be having an impact,..
A member of the Ukrainian Defence and Security Committee let slip today that they are close to agreement with the US to supply longer range missiles for the HIMARS systems they received.
The missiles they currently have are limited to a range of 70km but the longer range stuff extends that to 300km. That would put the whole of Crimea and the Crimean Bridge within range.
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An opposition group in Belarus has reported that this afternoon S-300 missile systems along with missile transporters are being moved to Brest on the border with Poland.
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Is Russia building up forces there that they need to protect? These are defensive missiles, right?
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Russia is running short on ordinance, so is using them in a ground to ground scenario, in this role they are very inaccurate.
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An ordinance is a municipal or county law. Ordnance is a mass noun referring to military materials such as weapons, ammunition, equipment, and vehicles.
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...welcome back....
(I think!)
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>> Is Russia building up forces there that they need to protect? These are defensive missiles,
>> right?
>>
They are surface to air missiles, they use them as ballistic missiles. Highly inaccurate, but they only have a small stock pile.
The only thing s300 is good for is anti aircraft role and the ukr airforce isn't likely to be conducting that sort of mission.
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Ah, right. I gather Ukraine had quite a lot of these too, with which they have downed quite a lot of Russian aircraft.
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>> Ah, right. I gather Ukraine had quite a lot of these too, with which they
>> have downed quite a lot of Russian aircraft.
>>
Hard to say how many they have really destroyed, i think they claim in the hundreds. I don't think it's likely, more like 100 or so. With what missile i don't know. I know they use them against Russian ballistic missiles with a reasonable success rate.
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Claimed
219 Planes
188 Helicopters
681 UAVs
109 Anti-Aircraft systems
37870 personnel, 1667 tanks, 3852 armoured vehicles, 840 artillery, 247 MLRS, 15 navy vessels, 67 'Special' (dozers, support vehicles).
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>.. but they only have a small stock pile.
It looks like things are getting desperate for the Russian military.
Putin has signed a 'special measures' order. It makes it illegal for companies to refuse or delay public procurement or State Defence orders and gives authorities 'legal regulation of labour relations in certain organisations' allowing them to dictate working hours.
Another part of the order allows 'temporary' mobilisation.
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Reports (unconfirmed) that the weight of Russian artillery is down by a significant amount. Primarily down to destruction of artillery depots in rear areas from NATO weapons.
Without the depots they'll have to truck shells in from their railheads.
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Ukraine claims to have destroyed more than 30 Russian ammunition depots in the past couple of weeks and say that the Ruskies are already trucking shells directly from Russian territory to the frontline.
I haven't found any official daily tally of shelling intensity but you can get some idea by running through the timeline on NASA's fire monitoring images if you take weather into account.
firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#t:adv;d:2022-07-08..2022-07-09;@34.8,48.2,6z
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>>
>> firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#t:adv;d:2022-07-08..2022-07-09;@34.8,48.2,6z
>>
It's amazing that stuff like this is in the public domain a mere 100 years ago it would have seem like magic. I suspect they can see someone light up a cigarette with the military stuff.
Goodness knows what the next 100 will bring.
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Lists of known equipment losses for Russia and Ukraine that have been taken from images in the public domain. Total losses for both will undoubtedly be higher. Image links included.
An old Alvis and 10 Saxons on the UKR list.
www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-ukrainian.html
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I guess that any volunteers that sign up aren't aware of what's been reported by one of the Russian news organisations that fled after they introduced jail terms for non-compliant journalists.
Squadies who complete their tour are being forced to stay on the front line and if they try to leave are being 'persuaded' to return.
New recruits are on 'training' (probation) for their first full month so if they fail to complete it by getting themselves killed or injured during that time they get no pay or insurance payout.
Next of kin are being told that their men are simply missing and they are not entitled to any compensation without official confirmation of them being either killed or injured in action.
The promise of quick money might not be so attractive if they bothered to read the small print.
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>> The promise of quick money might not be so attractive if they bothered to read
>> the small print.
Have you tried to read Cyrillic script?
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>Have you tried to read Cyrillic script?
It's all Greek to me.
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The UK is turning into a hub for training Ukrainian troops; Canadian, danish, kiwi, finnish and i think Australian are here assisting in training Ukrainian troops.
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A bit more chopper activity than usual here for the last few days so I guess there's a bit of practical stuff on Salisbury.
Satellite images of the airbase in Crimea that Ivan claims to have suffered an ammunition incident shows a helluva lot of damage and quite a few aircraft totally burnt out. Looks to be at least half a dozen that will need to be brushed into the gutter.
Reports from Belarus overnight that explosions were seen and heard at Zyabrovka airfield. It's where they've been bringing in and storing S-300 missile systems for the last 10 days or so.
Ukranian forces also seem to be better organised. They're taking out Russian logistics piece by piece choosing their targets for maximum impact with the least expenditure of the precision ammo they have available.
It looks like the 'training' is paying off.
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I dont know the location but neighbours son was suppososedly attending Army cadet annual camp. Cancelled and re-located locally due to the barracks being now allocated to training of Ukranian troops.
Now of course that may not be totally accurate the implication is that there is some commitment and ramping up of training.
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I assume that a lot of the training is for new weaponry being provided. No point in sending fancy guns, rockets, missiles, drones etc if they don't know which buttons to press.
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>> Reports from Belarus overnight that explosions were seen and heard at Zyabrovka airfield. It's where
>> they've been bringing in and storing S-300 missile systems for the last 10 days or
>> so.
Belarus claims its another "accident".
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Health and safety leaves a lot to be desired in Belarus.
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>> Health and safety leaves a lot to be desired in Belarus.
2nd "accident" in Crimea.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62560041
Seriously all joking aside, I wonder if all these local officials claim accident lest they be shot for failing to prevent the attack, if its for Russian population consumption, or if its for Putins consumption (and he might really believe it)
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I'm no strategist but these surgical strikes, effectively outside the Ukraine, must be seriously hurting Russian moral, on the ground if not in government. Word must surely be getting around on them.
I'm sure for some Russians it would stoke the fire against the Ukraine but for many it might be a clear signal that they are on a hiding to nothing, and also throw into doubt the tales the people have been fed by the Russian news machine .
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I doubt it. It just reinforces their perception that they are surrounded by enemies who are trying to destroy Russia and thus reinforces The official line put out by the Russian Government.
Did Russian shelling damage Ukrainian morale. Indeed did German bombing damage British morale or Allied bombing damage German morale?
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>> Did Russian shelling damage Ukrainian morale. Indeed did German bombing damage British morale or Allied
>> bombing damage German morale?
Yeah.
aoav.org.uk/2020/the-effects-of-strategic-bombing-in-wwii-on-german-morale/
Mind you the bombing of german cities was at levels never previously seen before or since.
Last edited by: Zero on Tue 16 Aug 22 at 12:10
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>> the bombing of german cities was at levels never previously seen before or since.
Hermann would have done the same here if it wasn't for the brave young men of the RAF/USAF etc. giving the Luftwaffe a good slap.
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>> Hermann would have done the same here if it wasn't for the brave young men
>> of the RAF/USAF etc. giving the Luftwaffe a good slap.
The Luftwaffe never had a proper heavy bomber like the Lancaster, Halifax or Stirling. Even at the end of the war the main bomber was the twin engine Heinkel. Proposals were made bit never made it into service.
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>> >> Hermann would have done the same here if it wasn't for the brave young
>> men
>> >> of the RAF/USAF etc. giving the Luftwaffe a good slap.
>>
>> The Luftwaffe never had a proper heavy bomber like the Lancaster, Halifax or Stirling. Even
>> at the end of the war the main bomber was the twin engine Heinkel. Proposals
>> were made bit never made it into service.
>>
Herman probably didn't bother fully developing / putting one in to service because of the brave young men that Dog refers to.
Even a twin engine bomber can do a lot of damage. I have mentioned it here before, Mother In Law was skiving off junior school when a German bomber went over and dropped a bomb on her parents house in broad daylight. They luckily survived because her and her brother were playing in the garden.
On another occasion they were strafed whilst playing on a local hill. Both were lucky to have survived with just cuts and bruises.
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>> Herman probably didn't bother fully developing / putting one in to service because of the
>> brave young men that Dog refers to.
>>
>> Even a twin engine bomber can do a lot of damage. I have mentioned it
>> here before, Mother In Law was skiving off junior school when a German bomber went
>> over and dropped a bomb on her parents house in broad daylight.
Goering owed his position to the machinations of the Nazi party. While 'Bomber' Harris had the support of Churchill he never feared for his life on the PM's mood/inclinations. Any history of the Lufwaffe, or a well researched novel such as those by Len Deighton or Colin Willock, give insight into why the Luftwaffe failed to develop strategic bombers.
There was more to it than Fighter Command or the USAAF.
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> Goering owed his position to the machinations of the Nazi party. While 'Bomber' Harris had
>> the support of Churchill he never feared for his life on the PM's mood/inclinations. Any
>> history of the Lufwaffe, or a well researched novel such as those by Len Deighton
>> or Colin Willock, give insight into why the Luftwaffe failed to develop strategic bombers.
>>
>> There was more to it than Fighter Command or the USAAF.
>>
Have a read of Spear's book, inside the reich, i think it's called. The first 1/3 isn't worth reading, the rest is well worth reading. All about germanys capacity to fight a war, the myths about Germany efficiency etc. Well worth a read if you haven't already and like that sort of thing.
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>>Mother In Law was skiving off junior school when a German bomber went over and dropped a bomb on her parents house in broad daylight. They luckily survived because her and her brother were playing in the garden.
My ole mum was in her top-floor council flat with her 4 babies when Jerry dropped a firebomb on it, which bounced off the roof and set the nearby school alight.
She lived next to the engineering firm Dewrance & Co in Great Dover Street, which was taken over by Babcock & Wilcox.
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>>Me ole mum
There for the grace of!
>> give insight into why the Luftwaffe failed to develop strategic bombers
Very briefly and simplified...
German industrial capacity was maxed out (perhaps they shouldn't have played with the complex V2).
You've got to build the airframe, so the saving isn't there, it's in the number of engines.
Plus fuel usage (4 engines use more than 2) which was an increasing problem as time progressed and of course the requirement for fighter cover which was seriously depleted by the RAF and USAFF.
Goering said re the Mosquito (not a strategic bomber):
"It makes me furious when I see the Mosquito. I turn green and yellow with envy. The British, who can afford aluminium better than we can, knock together a beautiful wooden aircraft that every piano factory over there is building, and they give it a speed which they have now increased yet again. What do you make of that? There is nothing the British do not have. They have the geniuses and we have the nincompoops. After the war is over I’m going to buy a British radio set – then at least I’ll own something that has always worked.”
Last edited by: zippy on Tue 16 Aug 22 at 20:31
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"They have the geniuses and we have the nincompoops."
Guess it our turn to have to have nincompoops now. Wouldn't spend too much ime looking for a British radio either
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>> "They have the geniuses and we have the nincompoops."
>>
>> Guess it our turn to have to have nincompoops now. Wouldn't spend too much ime
>> looking for a British radio either
>>
I believe Roberts radios are made in the UK.
We definitely had some short sighted financiers, appalling company management, poor political decision making (wholesale nationalisation when it wasn't needed) and militant unions intent on destroying our manufacturing capability.
Then when we did get something right, we flogged it off.
Last edited by: zippy on Tue 16 Aug 22 at 20:47
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"believe Roberts radios are made in the UK."
True but when you think about who buys radios any more? I guess they must survive on the nostalgia market
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>> "believe Roberts radios are made in the UK."
>>
>> True but when you think about who buys radios any more? I guess they must
>> survive on the nostalgia market
>>
Their turnover was nearly £20m last year, up from £16m the previous year so they must be selling quite a few!
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Nostalgia is about the only growth industry we have left.
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Nostalgia is not what it used to be
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You’re right. I really miss nostalgia.
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>> You’re right. I really miss nostalgia.
You've reminded me of Denis Norden and "Looks Familiar". Here he is in that show talking to Bernard Cribbens, and Youtube has a whole bunch of other interviews from the show. In case anyone is at a loose end.
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>> >> You’re right. I really miss nostalgia.
>>
>> You've reminded me of Denis Norden and "Looks Familiar". Here he is in that show
>> talking to Bernard Cribbens, and Youtube has a whole bunch of other interviews from the
>> show. In case anyone is at a loose end.
>>
>>
>>
...a missing link, I think (but don't worry, It'll be Alright on the Night)....
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>> ...a missing link, I think (but don't worry, It'll be Alright on the Night)....
D'Oh!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=HlsMZeeDyKk
Sorry. Also, that always annoyed me. In my world, "all right" is two words. Anyway.
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>> "They have the geniuses and we have the nincompoops."
>>
>> Guess it our turn to have to have nincompoops now. Wouldn't spend too much ime
>> looking for a British radio either
As it happens, captured german radios from aircraft (mostly telefunken) were much admired by our research boffins. And some of their radar was so good, we had to send commandos over there to steal it.
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>>
>> As it happens, captured german radios from aircraft (mostly telefunken) were much admired by our
>> research boffins. And some of their radar was so good, we had to send commandos
>> over there to steal it.
>>
Along with a RADAR specialist to tell them what components to take and what to leave behind I seem to recall reading about. Some very brave people about.
I also remember reading about the guy responsible for RADAR in the UK.
One of the main problems was getting the things in to the field in sufficient numbers. They were needed "yesterday" so they tested to build systems that just did, without any fancy features. The fancy features, upgrades if you like, would come in the second, third and fourth and later generations.
The policy meant that night fighters had rudimentary radar that worked relatively early on in the war, which was better than no radar.
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>> I also remember reading about the guy responsible for RADAR in the UK.
>>
>> One of the main problems was getting the things in to the field in sufficient
>> numbers. They were needed "yesterday" so they tested to build systems that just did, without
>> any fancy features. The fancy features, upgrades if you like, would come in the second,
>> third and fourth and later generations.
I've read elsewhere that Watson-Watt's motto was 'second best tomorrow'.
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One of the reasons the germans didn't realise we had proper working Radar, was because it was on an unsuitable wavelength. Chosen by us because it was the easiest quickest and cheapest to implement.
At the end of the day, tho a component was radar, it was the way it was used that won the Battle of Britain.
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>> My ole mum was in her top-floor council flat with her 4 babies when Jerry
>> dropped a firebomb on it, which bounced off the roof and set the nearby school
>> alight.
What did you did, or what happened to you in, the war was a conversation point for a generation.
Around 1980 I was twentyish working in London. From time to time my maternal Uncle, a senior engineer in GPO Telephones by then approaching retirement, was attending courses there. Now and then when he was in London we'd meet for a meal or a drink.
On one such occasion he'd politely said to a colleague he was meeting his nephew and would colleague like to come along. Counterintuitively, colleague said yes.
The two of them, men in their late fifties, remembering the japes they'd got up to at 21 in the RAF was hugely entertaining. I was made to promise not to tell my Mother a word of it!!
Two work colleagues at the time, one of whom was an SEO in the Civil Service who'd been NCO in the Army on war service the other a typist who'd been in the the women's forces recognised they'd met in Brussels c1945.
On another occasion Mrs B's mother's cousin told tales of dealing with incendiaries in Harborne during the blitz.
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Tue 16 Aug 22 at 20:34
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My dad and aunt were also strafed as they walked down the high street. The rounds stopped just in front of them and my dad's firm belief is that the pilot stopped firing when close enough to see that they were just children.
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>>The Luftwaffe never had a proper heavy bomber like the Lancaster, Halifax or Stirling. Even at the end of the war the main bomber was the twin engine Heinkel. Proposals were made bit never made it into service.
They had the V2 rocket though, which was the progenitor of the Saturn V rocket, and would likely have carried a nuclear warhead eventually.
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>> They had the V2 rocket though, which was the progenitor of the Saturn V rocket,
>> and would likely have carried a nuclear warhead eventually.
It was the Allies capability to send long range bombers to Peenemunde and other places that meant the V2 and other of Hitler's tools were too late to change the direction of the war.
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Jerry moved production to Mittelwerk in Kohnstein after we attacked Peenemunde.
I've been to Peenemunde. Just saying :)
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It is a real shame that Ukraine cannot risk real tit-for-tat strikes.
Russia has been hitting Kyiv, a strike on the Kremlin would be warranted, but of course they fear the reaction from Russia escalating to nuclear weapons or attacking other nations.
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Purely by chance that the accident also damaged the only operational railway link between Crimea and occupied Southern Ukraine too. How unfortunate.
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In the words of Windsor Davies - " Oh dear, how sad, never mind."
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Another carelessly discarded cigarette butt accident at an ammunition dump in Bolgorod tonight.
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Bellingcat say that they have obtained copies of a large number of complaints submitted to the Russian Prosecutors Office by residents of LPR and DNR.
The people that Putin claims needed his 'special operation' for protection are having their homes broken into and looted by Russian soldiers. In one case they used a tank to gain entry.
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>>residents of LPR and DNR
If you're going to use 3LAs (three letter acronyms), will you please explain their meaning to as dumb folk?
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>> >>residents of LPR and DNR
>>
>> If you're going to use 3LAs (three letter acronyms), will you please explain their meaning
>> to as dumb folk?
>>
They are the names of the areas Russia occupies now in Eastern Ukraine.
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_People%27s_Republic
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luhansk_People%27s_Republic
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So where does Do Not Resuscitate come into it?
Talking of which, where is Duncan?
Last edited by: Zero on Fri 12 Aug 22 at 08:28
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>>where is Duncan?
Probably been walnut whipped.
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>>
>> Talking of which, where is Duncan?
>>
...are they open yet...?
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I ate and drank last night at The Booking Office 'spoons on Waverley Bridge Edinburgh. First decent ale I've been able to find all week, and a main with a drink was not much more expensive than a toasted sandwich at the main comedy venues, which are mostly selling fancy lagers or IPAs (often at well over £6 a pint!).
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See if you can get to the Oxford Bar before you leave. 8 Young Street, at the Charlotte Square end just north of George St. Haven't been since May 2019, lovely pint of Caledonian Deuchers IIRC. Hope it survived COVID unchanged.
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>>Caledonian Deuchers
One of my favourites, probably the top!
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Zaporizhzhia Reactor.
I think the Russians are going to allow a small radiation leak.
They are then going to claim that unless they are given full control there will be a Chernobyl type disaster, but uncontrolled because there are no experts there to save it.
The implication being that much of Europe will be contaminated.
The EU will insist that this is not acceptable and force Ukraine in to a ceasefire with Russia.
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>> Zaporizhzhia Reactor.
>>
>> I think the Russians are going to allow a small radiation leak.
I think that highly unlikely, mostly because you cant tell where the radiation goes. I'm pretty sure Crimea would be mighty peed off if it went there.
One of the reasons they haven't employed chemical or biological
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>> I think that highly unlikely, mostly because you cant tell where the radiation goes. I'm
>> pretty sure Crimea would be mighty peed off if it went there.
We joked about Chernobyl's becquerels going hell for leather for Sellafield and Snowdonia.
Usually though they'd go west.
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>> >> I think that highly unlikely, mostly because you cant tell where the radiation goes.
>> I'm
>> >> pretty sure Crimea would be mighty peed off if it went there.
>>
>> We joked about Chernobyl's becquerels going hell for leather for Sellafield and Snowdonia.
>>
>> Usually though they'd go west.
>
Now is a bad time to do it then. www.ventusky.com/?p=46.42;30.68;6&l=wind-10m it would be farting in your own bed
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>>
>> I think that highly unlikely, mostly because you cant tell where the radiation goes. I'm
>> pretty sure Crimea would be mighty peed off if it went there.
>>
I am not sure that Putin would care for a small leak.
>>
>> One of the reasons they haven't employed chemical or biological
>>
Ah, but everyone would know if they used chemical or biological weapons - it would be a deliberate choice.
A radiation leak could be claimed to be accidental.
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An anonymous engineer working at the reactor has told BBC Ukraine that the Ruskies are shelling some areas of the plant but are choosing their targets under direction from Rosatom, the Russian nuclear power agency. They are damaging the infrastructure, including powerlines and transformers, but not the reactors themselves.
He said that the real danger will arise if all powerlines are damaged and the reactors go into Emergency Shutdown. There will be no power to run the cooling systems and the result will be more Fukushima than Chernobyl with the explosive release of radioactive steam inside the containment areas and cooling ponds.
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Back home, didn't drop in after that last post so missed your suggestion :-(
SWQMBO doesn't like pubs much but I do so yesterday I left her getting a final blast of of the Fringe atmosphere in the Pleasance bar area (which is so lively during the Fringe) for the afternoon and found a traditional boozer for a few hours. Can't remember the name of the bitter I was drinking but it was only £3.15 a pint and quite quaffable!
One evening there a small contingent of (reasonably) well-known comedians was drinking there - Dara O'Briain was chatting outside with David O'Doherty, inside were Nish Kumar, Angela Barnes, Josh Widdicombe, Ivo Graham, Rose Matafeo. Mark Watson, was knocking about too and very happy to chat. Last night Jess Phillips was there with her partner. Quite the place top be seen :-)
Last edited by: smokie on Sat 13 Aug 22 at 23:56
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...you're obviously quite an attraction...
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China, India, Belarus, Tajikistan and Mongolia are to hold joint military exercises from 30th Aug to 5th Sept in Russia.
The Ministry of Defense of China noted that "the training is not related to the current international and regional situation."
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>>India...
Didn't they recently have a spat with China over a glacier.
I would suspect China, Russia and Belarus want to assess India's capabilities more than anything else.
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I would suspect that Russia wants their visitors to bring plenty of kit with them.
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Russian forces closed the Crimea bridge overnight citing the threat of an imminent attack. Rumours circulating that during the closure, Konstantinov the Chairman of the State Council and Aksyonov the 'Head of The Repulic of Crimea' bundled their wives and kids into cars and left Crimea under escort.
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Joint military exercises - it may all just be politics:
- India want cheap Russian oil and need to show willing
- Belarus do whatever Russia tells them
- Tajikstan and Mongolia are bit players of no consequence - just making up the numbers
- China want to make the US and Europe nervous as part of their "world domination" strategy
We don't know how big this exercise is - it may be a show of real capability, or simply a couple of hundred troops having an awayday with photo-ops.
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Its non news, An exercise like this happens most years, the Indians and the Chinese are at loggerheads and will spying and interfering on each other. One year even Pakistan was involved.
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I’m staggered that Russia haven’t ran amok and taken fully over Ukraine since Boris “resigned”.
Thought he was single handedly spearheading the world’s defence of Ukraine??
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Sky is reporting that Russian troops have been seen wandering the streets of Kherson drinking Vodka and setting up check points to rob people.
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Thats an invading army for you. Inevitable really.
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Dozens of officers have legged it leaving their backwoods recruits to fend for themselves. They've been commandeering rail wagons to try and get looted white-goods back to Crimea.
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I wonder if the Moscow car bombing is a maskirovka to enable a Russian escalation.
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Maskirovka
"Noun
The use, by Russia or the former Soviet Union, of military deception intended to confuse Western intelligence"
Every possibility in the 'special operation'.
Last edited by: Fullchat on Mon 22 Aug 22 at 17:52
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>> I wonder if the Moscow car bombing is a maskirovka to enable a Russian escalation.
Certainly a bit rich for Putin to call what the Russians claim is state murder as a "vile, cruel crime".
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It seems that open windows are bad for your health in Russia...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62750584
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Dangerous places these Russian hospitals.
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Seriously, Russia ticks every box in the Rogue State category. We should have nuked the sods when they chucked chemical weapons around in the UK.
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Seems the long awaited Ukrainian offensive is under way and is making headway. The Russians in the north appear to be in a rather rapid retreat, perhaps as much as 30 miles of ground lost. They also have an encirclment to deal with.
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Yep I've been following it on and off over the past couple of days.
You have to admire the Ukrainian spirit.
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Initial report from Ukranian defence spokesman that around 650 Russian troops were killed on Thursday and another 300+ yesterday. The're struggling to deal with the number of prisoners.
(A group from the UN visited Russian POWs in Ukraine last week to inspect conditions. A request to see Ukrainian POWs held by Russia was refused).
Sanctions are also beginning to hit Russia where it really hurts - they've run out of implants for breast and buttock cosmetic surgery.
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Looks like Russians are being pushed back North and East of Kharkiv, their retreat may well turn into a rout.
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Lavrov has been interviewed on the Kremlin controlled channel Russia-1 and said:
"Our position was outlined by the president. We are not against negotiations, we do not refuse negotiations,..the more the process is delayed, the more difficult it will be to reach an agreement."
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>> ,..the more the process is delayed, the more difficult it will be to reach an agreement."
>>
Especially if the Russians get kicked out.
Perhaps the reason the Kerch bridge to the Crimea has not been attacked is that it will be an asset when the area is freed?
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Whilst we might want the Russians to 'lose', would getting nearer to defeat create a material risk of escalation, such as the use of tactical nukes?
Just got back from Austria - sobering to think that bits of it are only about 400 miles from Ukraine.
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>> Whilst we might want the Russians to 'lose', would getting nearer to defeat create a
>> material risk of escalation, such as the use of tactical nukes?
No we dont want a total defeat of Russia, it wont happen without Nukes being thrown around. Regime change in Russia will do and is probably likely from whats being sounded out now. I am not sure Ukraine want "the donbass" back, it would be a headache for years as it was before the invasion.
>> Just got back from Austria - sobering to think that bits of it are only
>> about 400 miles from Ukraine.
Plus 600 miles on to the front line. Its a long way as Hitler and Napoleon found out.
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Ben Hodges (retired American lieutenant general, former commander of the US forces in Europe), was asked that question on Friday I think.
"There is no real advantage on the battlefield, it would be impossible for the US to stand by/not react, and I don't think Putin or his closest advisers are suicidal..The US will react to Russia's use of nuclear weapons because China, North Korea and Iran are watching it. If we don't respond, they will be encouraged. The response will not necessarily be nuclear."
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>> Whilst we might want the Russians to 'lose', would getting nearer to defeat create a
>> material risk of escalation, such as the use of tactical nukes?
>>
No. People thought that to stop the flow of equipment to Ukraine, it still does now but far less.
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A Ukranian Govt "advisor" is predicting that the Russian Federation will fall apart if the Kremlin does not pull troops out of Ukraine.
"The propaganda of the Russian Federation is already changing its rhetoric, stating that the Kharkiv region is being liberated by mercenaries from NATO... A very important consequence of our advance is that in Russia they began to publicly criticize Putin and his supporters."
"Regional leaders who are sitting quietly, fearing the FSB, will gradually begin to raise their heads. They already understand, all these leaders of Tatarstan, Bashkortostan and other republics understand that Putin is leading Russia into the abyss..."
ISW's opinion on the situation:
www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-13
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Just catching up on stuff and it appears that at the time of the invasion Ukraine had actually agreed to Russia's demands to stay out of NATO but when the deal was presented to Putin he rejected it and moved the goalposts.
www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-war-began-putin-rejected-ukraine-peace-deal-recommended-by-his-aide-2022-09-14/
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This is a very well presented and considered article on why the Crimea Bridge is so far untouched.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=aE5afkEqG08
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Ukraine - Volume 5 - sooty123
